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Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 2:45:40 AM

Consumer note: ... For those that have consumed the popular Comcast "Triple Play" and its term expired, thus your rates risen to approximately $150.00/month from $99.00, it may be worth a phone call to the company (see your invoice) and tell them you want the deal they're advertising today.

If you have what they see as a "good payment history," you just might save yourself $50.00/month ($600.00/year).

I did!

A penny saved is a penny earned. - Benjamin Franklin

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 2:16:49 AM

Swing trade call lower target alert! ... for the one (1) Dynamic Materials BOOM Jun $45 Call (QCB-FI) to $49.00 in the underlying (from $51.00).

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 2:14:03 AM

Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $46.59 Link ... last tick extended was $42.25.

Having read and listened in on earnings call, main "problem" or reason I think stock saw weakness in extended is continued strong demand for steel having negative near-term impact, thus the need of customers to "push out" orders into latter-half of year. Somewhat in hopes that steel prices retreat.

Gross margins shrunk also due to the higher price of steel.

I was somewhat disappointed with the oil field products division.

Stock looks "oversold" extended based on business trend longer-term, but momentum probably not there until next quarter.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 1:21:38 AM

Microsoft-Yahoo Deal May Go Hostile Friday ... AP Story Link

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 10:56:47 PM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

I had posted a chart of NDX showing how we could get a further rally up to the 1994-1999 area and after studying the price pattern a little more I thought a better way to finish the rally would be a pullback first and then a push higher up to that price zone. That's shown in pink: Link

Whether it rallies straight up or after a pullback first (or at all) is difficult to tell in the current environment of no-follow-through price action. But it could be a whippy day on Friday if it does pull back first and then rocket higher (maybe disappointment from the morning economic reports and then a reversal). A break below Thursday's lows would spell more immediate trouble for the market.

Since the market closed at its highs on Thursday it means we should expect a strong down day on Friday. I say that tongue-in-cheek because obviously I can't know that. But this market has had an uncanny ability to rally hard or sell hard right into the close and then reverse hard immediately the following morning.

It's as though the shorts covered right into the close and then there is no one else to do some buying the following morning. Or longs throw in the towel right into the close, closing at the low, and then there are no more sellers and the market rallies hard the next day. So take nothing for granted in this no-follow-through market and we'll see how it sets up in the morning.

OI Technical Staff : 5/1/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 9:50:40 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 5:24:21 PM

NVDA's May "Max Pain" Theory currently tabulated at $20.00 ... $2.50 inc.

June also $20.00

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 5:22:20 PM

Today's Unusual Put and Call Option Volume ... Seeing NVDA Jun $20 Calls.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 5:10:56 PM

CHK ... Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 5:10:18 PM

Might be worth a listen ... see where they're hedge at. Could become support for nat gas.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 5:09:10 PM

DJ (update)- Chesapeak Energy Swing To 1Q Loss On Hedging Losses

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 5:08:28 PM

Mid America Apt. (MAA) $54.54 +3.88% ... no trading on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 5:05:51 PM

S&P: Toll Bros Outlook Revised To Neg On Earnings Pressure

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 5:05:12 PM

05:00 tick on Eur/$ 1.5475

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 5:01:29 PM

Wynn Resorts (WYNN) $107.99 +2.51% ... darts lower to $103.06 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 5:00:38 PM

TOL $23.97 +5.87% ... $23.84 x $24.21

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:59:46 PM

S&P: Pulte Cut To 'BB' On Noncash Charges, Equity Erosion

PHM $14.11 +8.20% ... $13.99 x $14.20 extended. Not showing halted. $14.20 last tick extended.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:56:28 PM

Superior Energy Svcs (SPN) $43.46 -2.29% ... $44.20 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:55:56 PM

QLGC $17.60 ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:52:31 PM

JAVA $14.68 ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:51:39 PM

MFLO gridded $21.40 x $21.85

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 4:50:50 PM

Due to a family emergency, I will not be on the Market Monitor tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:50:39 PM

CBEY $20.29 ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:50:08 PM

MET $61.99 ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:49:33 PM

DRIV $35.10

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:49:20 PM

CHK ... $50.10

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:48:57 PM

CAB $14.90 ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:48:33 PM

JAVA ... $14.66

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:48:15 PM

MNST ... $25.58

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:47:19 PM

Bare Escentuals (BARE) $23.69 +3.85% ... $24.00.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:46:53 PM

Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $46.73 -0.63% ... hit further at $41.60 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:42:54 PM

QLogic (QLGC) $16.65 +4.32% ... jumps to $17.54 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:41:55 PM

Discount Window Borrowings Wednesday (By District) Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:38:09 PM

Foreign Ctrl Banks Buy $10.45B US Govt. Bonds In April 30 Week

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:37:27 PM

US Fed Total Discount Window Borrowings $29.763B As of Wed

Discount Window Avg Daily Borrowings Wk Of Apr 30 $30.183B

Primary Credit Borrowings Wed $11.96B; Avg Daily $11.59B

Primary Dealer Borrowings Wed $17.78B; Avg Daily $18.57B

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:32:44 PM

Sun Micro (JAVA) $16.33 +4.27% ... gridded $15.06 x $15.50

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:28:53 PM

Moldflo (MFLO) $19.60 -0.80% ... was halted. AutoDesk (ADSK) $39.31 +3.44% buying company.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:26:57 PM

Chesapeake announcing some asset sales.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:24:20 PM

Cbeyond (CBEY) $20.26 +2.63% ... ticks lower at $20.10 on headline numbers. "Sees challenging economy"

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:22:29 PM

Metlife (MET) $61.94 +1.79% ... halted for earnings. No trade time resumption given at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:21:09 PM

Digitial River (DRIV) $34.15 +3.95% ... ticks higher at $34.38 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:19:54 PM

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $50.93 -1.48% ... called lower at $50.07 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:18:23 PM

Cabelas (CAB) $14.20 +4.95% ... halted for earnings. No trade time resumption established at this point.

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 4:17:05 PM

The techs are running strong and I've been showing more upside potential for them with two Fib projections for the move up from March coinciding closely just under 2000--one at 1994 and the other at 1999. These Fibs also coincide closely with the top of its parallel up-channel from March and the top of a rising wedge pattern for the move up from April 15th. By this projection it looks like we could see another 20-point rally out of NDX, potentially topping out by the end of the day tomorrow. 120-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:16:54 PM

Sun Microsystems (JAVA) $16.33 +4.27% ... halted for earnings.

Trade resumption 04:35 PM EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:14:39 PM

Monster Worldwide (MNST) $25.56 +5.05% ... pops to $26.50 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:13:15 PM

Bare Escentuals (BARE) $23.69 +3.85% ... ticks higher at $24.00 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:08:06 PM

Conn Gov Asks Congress To Lift Tariff On Imported Ethanol

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:07:31 PM

Conn Gov Asks Congress To Waive Renewable Fuel Standard

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 4:07:01 PM

The RUT is now approaching its February 1st high (the last of the big four to do so) at 731.24 (about 2 points higher). I also have a Fib projection for the move up from April 22nd at 732.59 which would be a throw-over finish tomorrow above its rising wedge pattern for the move up from April 22nd. It's something to watch for tomorrow. 60-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:04:57 PM

Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $46.73 -0.63% ... slips to $46.00 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:04:04 PM

Here come the earnings ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 4:00:41 PM

PBR $121.743 +0.25% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 3:59:57 PM

RIO $38.35 -1.84% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 3:59:08 PM

$/real ... 1.662 +0.03% ...

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 3:54:55 PM

The SPX has zoomed right back up to that potential resistance on 30-minute closes, and the last-minute action may even push it above that resistance. We'll know tomorrow whether the SPX will break out or pull back sharply from this much-tested resistance this afternoon. Good luck to all!

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 3:54:51 PM

Just after my post I see price spiking up again, with techs to new highs. That actually changes the picture somewhat and now has me thinking we could see early highs Friday morning but then topping out soon thereafter.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 3:53:08 PM

$/Yen 104.33 +0.47% ... MONTHLY Pivot Levels are ... 97.47, 100.66, Piv= 102.76, 105.95, 108.05.

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 3:53:06 PM

With price continuing to chop its way into the close the market is unfortunately not tipping its hand as to which way the market could head tomorrow morning. I do not see a good setup at the end of the day here which means open positions are at risk as we head into tomorrow's economic reports.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 3:46:03 PM

Eur/$ 1.5457 -1.05% ... MONTHLY Pivot Levels are ... 1.5208, 1.5414, Piv= 1.5717, 1.5923, 1.6626

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 3:40:36 PM

Bulls do not want a sharp pullback today off the highs after most indices punched to new recent highs. That's not happening yet, but I'm just really on guard today. As if you couldn't tell.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 3:39:17 PM

SPX below the 15-minute 9-ema for the first time since the 11:00 am ET candle this morning. If it doesn't pull up soon, it may be headed toward next potential support at 1401.68-1402.59.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 3:37:50 PM

I could wirelessly connect the iTV to my router and then connect to my iTunes computer. Then I could play all my iTUNES of which I have many. Plus all the podcasts I have downloaded. My poor husband if he lets me venture into this realm.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 3:36:34 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $90.40 -2.27% ... MONTHLY Pivot levels are ... $73.01, $82.76, Piv= $89.51, $99.26, $106.01.

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 3:36:01 PM

We didn't get the sharp drop down from the 2nd high this afternoon (just before 3:00 PM). This opens up the door to the possibility that the late-afternoon high was the end of the run (meaning there is the possibility that there will be a negative reaction to tomorrow's economic reports. Personally I would be uncomfortable holding a short term position overnight but most especially a long position. Let's see how the final 30 minutes go here.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 3:35:28 PM

The box looks like a flattened Mac mini -- apparently it's around half the height -- and features a built-in power supply, USB 2.0, Ethernet, 802.11 "wireless component video", optical audio and HDMI ports, plus regular ol' RCA stereo audio ports. Controllable by the standard Apple remote, the iTV will come with an updated version of the Front Row interface that shares Front Row's smooth 3D graphics, but differs in that it has a menu on the right side of the screen. Apparently it'll work with both iTunes on both PCs and Macs, and will sell for $299.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 3:35:05 PM

Another 30-minute SPX candle that couldn't maintain 30-minute close above Keltner resistance now at about 1407.80. However, lows are rising along the rising 15-minute 9-ema, so bulls can find hopeful signs, too. That 15-minute 9-ema is now at 1405.38, so bulls wawnt that support to be maintained now on the this current test, on 15-minute closes. Keep those stops where they protect your bullish profits.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 3:34:35 PM

I so badly want to buy an iTV.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 3:34:22 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Apple Inc. said Thursday that it will start selling movies through its iTunes Music Store on the same day that those movies are released on DVD. Apple said the releases would include new and catalog titles from studios such as Warner Bros. , Paramount Pictures, 20th Century Fox and Walt Disney Studios . Prior to Thursday's announcement, dates varied for when new movie releases would go on sale through iTunes. The new release dates only apply to movies purchased through iTunes, with movie rentals still available about 30 days after release on DVD.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 3:31:51 PM

AD volume tajectory is still very strong and shows no sign of abatting.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 3:31:22 PM

I think I will get my SPX close above 1400 resistance today, unless of course the bulls totally fumble the ball right before the close, which I don't see happneing.

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 3:31:31 PM

The brokerage index (XBD) is up strong today, +4.1% and is now approaching its 100-dma at 183, which stopped the two previous rallies in October and February (and stopped short of it on the bounce in December). So it's an important moving average for this index. Slightly higher near 186 is the downtrend line from October. XBD daily chart: Link

I'm showing an a-b-c wave count off the March low and you can see the move up from April can now be counted as a 5-wave move (for wave-c). The 5-wave move is what needs to be seen for this leg up and the fact that it can be counted as complete as it approaches resistance has me thinking this index will be topping out very soon, possibly tomorrow if it manages to push slightly higher.

There are a lot of pieces of the puzzle coming together now that has me confident in saying the market is about to peak in its correction off the March lows.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 3:30:10 PM

That "makes sense" with Linda's 03:19:07

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 3:29:46 PM

Friday economic report docket includes

8:30a.m. Apr Nonfarm Payrolls. Expected: -75K. Previous: -80K.

8:30a.m. Apr Unemployment Rate. Expected: 5.2%. Previous: 5.1%.

10:00a.m. Mar Factory Orders. Expected: +0.3%. Previous: -1.3%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 3:29:37 PM

IWM "Max Pain" Theory has ticked up to $71.00.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 3:27:30 PM

Will stand pat on my current OPEN MM profiles to the close.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 3:24:04 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,955:923

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 3:23:52 PM

NYSE a/d 2,209:922

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 3:19:07 PM

The RVX, the Russell 2000's volatility index, has fallen to test potential support near 23.30. This is short-term support as seen on a 30-minute chart. For some reason, I'm not getting a feed on the daily chart.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 3:19:01 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,961:923

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 3:18:49 PM

NYSE a/d 2,204:919

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 3:14:32 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,946:935

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 3:14:18 PM

NYSE a/d 2,190:943

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 3:13:07 PM

Sector Losers ... Oil Service -2.11%, CBOE Oil -1.96%, Gold Bugs -1.29%, Nat Gas -0.91%, HMO's -0.80%

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 3:10:11 PM

The price pattern is getting a little strange here--it was beginning to look like it was going to chop higher and perhaps finish right around the DOW 12040-13050 area but now I'm thinking we could see a sharp pullback (holding above SPX 1400/DOW 12935) to complete an a-b-c pullback from today's earlier high just after 1:00 PM. That would then set up another rally leg into tomorrow (maybe a relief rally from the jobs report?). I'll have a better feel for what might happen in the next 30 minutes and hopefully help you make some end-of-day decisions.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 3:08:48 PM

Bond Market Closed ...

13- week finished up 3 bp at 3.064%.

5-year up 3.1 bp at 3.064%

10-year down 1.0 bp at 3.749%

30-year down 1.3 bp at 4.484%.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 3:07:38 PM

Once again (for the fifth 30-minute candle in a row), the SPX was not able to maintain a 30-minute close above the Keltner resistance. That's now at about 1407.60 on 30-minute closes. Never fear, though, the SPX is right there again, challenging it still. My worry has been misplaced all day, but I still worry on behalf of bullish traders who are concluding that this zoom higher is "it," the sign that all is well. On a daily chart, the climb looks great, breaking indices up through lower layers of resistance to test the higher layers, but it's look on the 30-minute charts is troubling to me and the appearance on the daily charts could (not "will," but "could") look different by the close.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 3:02:20 PM

The non-farm payrolls certainly could be a huge report, Jeff. I agree. The ADP this week promised a less troubling number than the previous estimates, but the ADP has a mixed history with regard to the predictions it makes. Monster's employment report was fairly decent today, but other employment-related numbers weren't so hot, of course.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 3:02:11 PM

Energy futures at 02:27 PM (see 05/01/08) Link

James Brown : 5/1/2008 3:01:26 PM

Another factor pressuring crude oil today...

Last week ExxonMobil reported that problems in Nigeria had shut down 200,000 barrels worth of production.

Today XOM is saying that some of that production is starting come back online.

James Brown : 5/1/2008 2:56:02 PM

Shares of railroad stock Union Pacific (UNP) are soaring to another new all-time high at $147.55 after announcing a 2-for-1 stock split and a 20 million share stock buyback program. While these two programs seem contradictory, investors are applauding. (that's a 40-million share buyback on a post-split basis)

UNP currently has 258 million shares outstanding

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 2:54:30 PM

That could be a HUGE economic report Linda.

DXY 73.32 +1.11% (30-minute delayed) ...

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 2:53:03 PM

I've been offering unneeded warnings all day, but I'm about to offer another possibly unneeded one. Begin thinking now about whether you plan to hold your trades overnight ahead of tomorrow's non-farm payrolls. If you don't and you're in bullish trades, for example, you might want to begin thinking about tightening up your stops. That seems a silly warning, but prices that can zoom all the way from the bottom of a 30-minute Keltner channel to the top in a few hours' time can zoom right back down again. I don't see any evidence of that occurring just yet, but various forms of resistance are again being tested, so just keep on your toes. Do not let a profit turn into a loss.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 2:50:41 PM

I am very tempted to try a long Crude position here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 2:49:50 PM

Credit Suisse Sells $4B 5.05% Bond; Tsys +2.00

CS $55.19 +3.44%

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 2:49:27 PM

Every once in a while the trajectory of the AD volume tells you fading (taking a trade in the opposite direction) is just not worthwhile. It doesn't happen often but there are days when it talks loud and clear. Today is one of those days. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 2:48:21 PM

The VIX was not able to maintain 30-minute closes above about 19.30. It's at 19.07 as I type, but it's not dropping to a new low of the day. Yet. It's testing potential support near 19.10, appearing to try to steady here, but whether that attempt will be successful or not is as yet unknown.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 2:41:37 PM

As others have probably already noted, the Dow approaches its 200-sma at 13054 (DTNIQ feed) but is also brushing up against the rising trendline resistance off the 3/05, 4/02, 4/18, 4/24 and 4/30 highs. As you can see, this trendline has topped out Dow gains many times over the last months. On 3/24, the Dow pierced this trendline, but closed below it. Dow bulls should therefore also have their just-in-case profit-protecting plans in place.

James Brown : 5/1/2008 2:38:58 PM

Noticing on CNBC a little while ago... they ran a slide that said Milk was up 23%, Bread up 16% and Eggs were up 35% in the last year.

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 2:40:49 PM

Robert, I saw your note about trouble uploading charts. Welcome to the MM by the way. When you get a chance perhaps you could introduce yourself to our readers.

You probably already figured it out but be sure there is a space before the chart link and do a hard carraige return after the link if any text is to follow it.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 2:37:19 PM

I'm switching to the 30-minute chart for the SPX as it has better correspondence with the SPX's action, other than when observing that 15-minute 9-ema. Equity bulls now want the SPX to break above and maintain values above 1407.50 on 30-minute closes. The earlier spikes have found resistance here at this particular Keltner level on 30-minute closes.

James Brown : 5/1/2008 2:36:49 PM

Exit alert! on the OI strangle play for Merrill Lynch (MER). Shares of MER are up 5.3% and breaking out past the $50 area and its 100-dma.

The call side of our strangle was the May $50 calls (MER-EJ). These are trading in the $3.11-3.20 zone. Our suggested target to exit was at $3.00 or more. Estimated cost for the strangle was $1.76. More aggressive traders may want to let it ride since we have a couple of weeks left before May expiration.

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 2:33:58 PM

If the little pullback from today's high was a 4th wave correction in today's rally then we should get another minor new high (SPX 1411-1414) before seeing at least a deeper pullback (so watch a new high for bearish divergences to set up the next shorting opportunity).

If the high is in and we get another leg down in the pullback I'll be watching for where we'll see two equal legs down to see if support holds there. I need to first wait to see where the current bounce stops. Starting to tip back over as I type so as an example, two equal legs down for SPX and DOW would be at 1400.44 and 12954.

James Brown : 5/1/2008 2:33:48 PM

OI put play on the USO oil ETF is down 1.89% to $90.75. The USO is rebounding from its lows of the day at $88.89. Our target was the $88.50-88.00 zone.

James Brown : 5/1/2008 2:31:41 PM

Exit alert! Dow Jones Transport iShares (IYT) has hit our first target near $95.00. The ITY is up 3.4% to $95.58. Our second, more aggressive target is the $98.00 level.

James Brown : 5/1/2008 2:30:19 PM

IBM hit our trigger to buy calls yesterday and the stock is up 2.6% today to $123.87.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 2:27:51 PM

Dow Jones US Trucking Index (DJUSTK) Alert! 386.72 +4.75% ... challenges all-time high.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 2:26:54 PM

Tesoro (TSO) $25.66 +2.06% ... reversing losses from another 52-week low. This is an initial alert to 04/28/08 suspicious stock and option activity. See 04/28/08 Link

James Brown : 5/1/2008 2:23:46 PM

The homebuilders are doing well. The DJUSHB index is up 4.4% and OI call play HOV is up 1.4% @ 11.97. Traders bought the dip in HOV near $11.30 and its trendline of higher lows.

James Brown : 5/1/2008 2:22:05 PM

Might want to take some profits here...
OI call play on Alliant Tech (ATK) is up 2.5% to $112.82. The stock has already passed our first target near $110 and is making progress toward our second target in the $114-115 zone.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 2:19:03 PM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now 1402.67; the OEX's, 649.38.

James Brown : 5/1/2008 2:18:53 PM

Deutsche Bank (DB) isn't wasting any time. They just came out with some new equities for investors to trade commodities. These are based off six commodities.

These commodity-related ETNs began trading as of today.

Deutsche Bank Commodity ETNs
(ETN = Exchange Traded Note)

Short ETN (DDP)
Double short (DEE)
6 commodities...

Long ETN (DPU)
Double Long (DYY)

They also offer ETNs on Gold...

DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ)
DB Gold Double Long ETN (DGP)
DB Gold Short ETN (DGZ)

and ETNs on Agriculture...

DB Ag Double Short ETN (AGA)
DB Ag Double Long ETN (DAG)
DB Ag Short ETN (ADZ)
DB Ag Long ETN (AGF)

For more info on ETNs... visit here:
www.dbfunds.db.com/notes

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 2:18:13 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Note: NASDAQ's 10-day NH/NL ratio

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 2:17:41 PM

Here's a 30-minute Keltner chart of the SPX, with support and resistance easy to spot and conclusions easy to draw: Link This chart pinpoints why I'm so reluctant to draw conclusions, even now. To me, the SPX is just zooming around within the black-channel boundries and within the widening boundaries of this (redrawn by today's action) megaphone shape. Given the fact that this is all occurring pre- and post-FOMC decision day, I'm a little leery of deciding just yet that all is great and all conclusions reached, all hands shaken, all "t's" crossed and "i's" dotted. Of course, I'm not urging everyone to pile into bearish positions, but I am urging those in bullish positions to keep updating those just-in-case profit-protecting plans.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 2:11:13 PM

So far, the SPX bounces from above the 15-minute 9-ema, now at 1402.04. Watch now for potential resistance at 1405 on 15-minute closes or up near 1410.

Robert Ogilvie : 5/1/2008 2:07:02 PM

CBOE 10 Year Treasury Yield ($TNX.X) found support at the 50 and 89 DMA (36.80) and is now up on the day. Yields are stabilizing after the Fed decision yesterday. Boy am I having trouble uploading these charts. Link

Robert Ogilvie : 5/1/2008 2:04:23 PM

CBOE 10 Year Tresury Yield ($TNX.X)Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 2:03:49 PM

DIA, SPY, IWM, QQQQ ... Daily Interval montage with your conventional retracement Link

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 2:01:22 PM

The VIX is now 19.28, rising swiftly off the day's low of 18.88. It needs to sustain its climb, however, by now producing sustained 30-minute closes above about 19.28.

Robert Ogilvie : 5/1/2008 2:00:41 PM

To see Goldman's chart click here. Link

Robert Ogilvie : 5/1/2008 1:59:22 PM

Goldman Sachs (GS) has busted through its 200 DMA. The stock is currently up 5.73 at 197.1. The 200 DMA is at 196.21.http://www.optioninvestor.com/premium/mm/chartlink.aspx?mm=&Path=/oin/mm/chartlink/284111_05012008105551

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 1:59:05 PM

Is a test of the 15-minute 9-ema next for the SPX? It's not a given, but is a possibility. That average is now 1401.67. If it's tested, bulls want it to hold as support on 15-minute closes. What they'd actually prefer is for the SPX to trade sideways while the average moves higher, closer beneath the SPX's current 1403.93 level.

That average for the OEX is 648.91.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 1:54:56 PM

Jeff here is the weekly chart of GT and yes you can say massive consolidation here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:52:33 PM

Setting al_rts on GT at $22.00 and $31.00. Once everyone gets on the trade, this bugger could move.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:51:40 PM

Petrochemical a major input.

"Last time I checked, you couldn't drive a car without four tires."

MASSIVE consolidation.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:49:25 PM

Goodyear Tire (GT) $27.20 +1.56% Link ... massive consolidation. MASSIVE!

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 1:48:40 PM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now 1402.06. The OEX's is 648.99.

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 1:48:34 PM

It's always hard to guess what the market will do post-FOMC, both the afternoon session following FOMC and then the following day. As I mentioned last night it seems common "practice" to see either a bull or bear trap set the afternoon following FOMC and then it gets sprung the following morning. It makes for a very good trade if you can guess right.

Also helping today's bulls is probably new-month money coming into the market (not to mention all those tax rebate checks, wink). There's a lot of bullish sentiment again out there and I suspect many are putting money back into the market. This actually fits the wave-2 bounce scenario--these are the correction waves that pull a lot of people back into the market thinking the bottom is in. Then the 3rd wave down catches them in an uh-oh moment.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:48:03 PM

Toyota Motor (TM) $102.91 +1.38% Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:47:23 PM

12:01 PM Daimler Ag April Sales ... Press Release Link

DAI $78.47 +1.35% Link

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 1:45:37 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The House Financial Services Committee voted to approve a bill to aid strapped homeowners on Thursday, sending the measure to the full House for approval. The bill, pushed by panel chairman Barney Frank, D-Mass., and other Democrats, would allow the Federal Housing Administration to back as much as $300 billion in refinanced loans for homeowners facing foreclosure.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:45:10 PM

01:35 PM Ford, Toyota April Sales Slide, Led Lower by Trucks

CNBC Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:43:46 PM

Ford Motor (F) $8.45 +2.30% Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:43:10 PM

01:37 Ford sales drop 12.2% as truck buyers stay away ... MarketWatch Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:40:29 PM

Seeing auto sales figures were released at 12:00 PM EDt.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:39:22 PM

NASDAQ a/d 18:9 ... call it 2:1

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:39:04 PM

NYSE a/d 21:9

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 1:38:59 PM

I usually begin annotating charts for the evening's Wrap about this time of day, but I'm not even going to attempt to do that today until nearer the close. Price action has been too changeable.

Robert Ogilvie : 5/1/2008 1:37:51 PM

I have been watching the $SPX over the last few days try to reach up to the 200 Exponential MA at 1407. It broke it and has since dipped lower. The 200 Simple MA is all the way at 1433. The 50 Exponential and the 89 Simple MAs are connverging at 1364. This provides a decent support level should the market decline from here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:37:07 PM

30-year ... creeps green. Up 0.6 bp now at 4.503%

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 1:35:03 PM

I thought for sure I heard the chainsaws in the background waiting to start the sawing on the limb I am sitting on this week but I think the bulls are coming to my rescue. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 1:34:32 PM

Robert has mentioned potential support for the VIX. I'd like to show a shorter-term chart, too, as an adjunct to his comments: Link On longer-term charts, I show potential support from 18.00 (daily) up to 18.30 (30-minute chart), near Robert's mentioned 18.28.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:33:55 PM

Sector Losers ... Gold Bugs -3.43%, Oil Service -3.25%, CBOE Oil -2.64%, Natural Gas -1.65%, HMO's -1.00%

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:32:43 PM

Sector Winners ... Airline +6.00%, Regional Banks +5.15%, Home Construction +4.65%, Money Center Banks +4.56%, Broker/Dealer +4.26%, Semiconductor +4.05%

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:30:16 PM

Wilshire 5000 (DWX) 14,185 +1.40% ... edges above yesterday's high.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 1:29:05 PM

With the SPX now rising up toward that 1407-1417 potential resistance zone, it's time now to look at the SPX's daily chart, if you haven't already. Keene has been covering it, too. As the SPX tests one version of its descending trendline off the October 11 high, it's also testing its 200-ema, with that resistance defining the bottom of that 1407-1417 (now risen to 1417.62) resistance zone that many of us have been noting. Also included in that zone is the 61.8% retracement of the decline off that October high.

With prices bulldozing through every potential resistance level this morning, it's going to be difficult that any resistance level will hold. Perhaps it won't, but I urge bullish market participants to keep updating their profit-protecting plans, just in case.

Robert Ogilvie : 5/1/2008 1:28:34 PM

CBOE $VIX has dropped below last week's 19.21 support to a low of 18.88. The next support is 18.28 from 12/21/07.

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 1:27:40 PM

The DOW is also pressing up against the top of its rising wedge from March, here at 13012. Slightly higher is its 200-dma at 13057: Link . There's a Fib projection for the move up from April 15th at 13044. So once again, the bulls have formidable resistance to get through here. And the bearish divergences on its 60-min chart persist.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 1:23:38 PM

The TRAN has broken out again on the 15-minute chart, erasing the previous Keltner-style bearish divergence and confirming that continuation-form inverse H&S that I'd mentioned earlier as being noted on the 15-minute chart. The target for that projects up to about 5273.23 or perhaps a bit lower, depending on where the neckline is drawn. The TRAN is now at 5322.13.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:22:05 PM

NASDAQ Telecom (IXTCX) 353.87 +3.30% ... 50% conventional.

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 1:21:56 PM

We're getting a throw-over now above the rising wedge for SPX so bulls will want to hold this. Any drop back inside the pattern, with a drop back below 1403, would be a sell signal.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:20:05 PM

NASDAQ's NH/NL Ratio Chart at this Link

Note: "f"ive day, and the consolidation noted early this morning/late last night. 10-day NH/NL ratio would need a closing session measure of 32.00% to generate a "buy signal."

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 1:13:00 PM

The SPX daily chart shows what bulls are up against--price is up against the downtrend line from October (it's either slightly above or slightly below the trend line depending on log or arithmetic scale) and up against the top of its rising wedge pattern: Link . I'm still interpreting the rising wedge as bearish because of the continuing bearish divergences that are readily apparent on the 60-min chart.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 1:10:18 PM

This just does not feel right today. I expected the bounce from the 1383.50 zone, but I expected at least a pause near 1396-1398. The SPX has already spanned almost the total distance between presumed strong support (1383.58) on 30-minute closes and presumed strong resistance (1406.52) on 30-minute closes, all in a few hours. The channel marked by these boundaries usually contains most price action on the SPX, although in the most volatile times there are breakouts. We've had a confirmed breakdown below a H&S (building from 4/23-4/30) neckline and now a strong zoom back up to the head area. We couldn't believe in the breakdown this morning, so can we believe in this action this afternoon?

Here's the only guideline that I can offer. The SPX has been continuing its pattern since about 10:00 of finding support on 15-minute closes at or near the rising 15-minute 9-ema. That moving average is now 1398.22. As long as the SPX is maintaining closes at or above that moving average, the rally off this morning's low continues.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:06:41 PM

Starting to see some DIVERGENCE in shorter-term after FOMC cuts.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:05:59 PM

5-year ... up 4.1 bp at 3.074%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:04:20 PM

SWC $13.43 -5.28% ... Some "relief"

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:03:00 PM

AA $33.88 -2.58% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:02:43 PM

ACH $42.09 -1.70% ... first thought would be "bear" ... need a chart.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:01:59 PM

China Telecom (CHA) $69.00 +2.08% ... first though would be "bull" ... need a chart.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:01:18 PM

CEO $176.52 -0.58% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:00:56 PM

PTR $151.33 +0.12% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:00:40 PM

BIDU $365.14 -0.12% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:00:22 PM

SOHU $74.54 +7.82% ...

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 12:59:17 PM

SPX wasted no time jumping up to its trend line along the highs from April 7th--about to tag it here at 1405.50. Pretty scary short but this line has been resistance repeatedly since April 7th high.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 12:59:13 PM

Next SPX potential SPX resistance at 1406.64, if the SPX maintains levels above 1403.52 on this 15-minute close.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:58:38 PM

ProShares UltraShort (AMEX:FXP) 61.42 -3.27% ... probes all-time inception low.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:55:01 PM

Now check out BIX.X on DAILY Interval. MACD above zero this time around.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:54:22 PM

Check out BIX.X 120-minute with your conventional. 19.1% 257.14. See the "test" for a 120-minute interval? Didn't pass it for strength on 04/02/08

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:53:00 PM

Same on 120-minute interval.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:52:44 PM

BIX.X 60-minute interval chart has MACD hooking up above zero.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:52:04 PM

BIX's WKLY R2 correlative with new MONTHLY R1.

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 12:50:59 PM

Semiconductors are also very strong today and this has SMH also approaching potentially strong resistance and the end of its correction from the January low (to correct the July-January decline). Two equal legs up from January is at 32.03, a 38% retracement of last year's decline is at 32.22 and the top of a parallel up-channel for price action since January is right in between. Therefore I am expecting the rally to top out in this area. But if it can push through this zone then upside potential is to 34. Daily chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 12:51:34 PM

I'm not getting a good feel for the markets today. Setups are not proving reliable. I usually grow more cautious when I see this kind of action as something is wrong. Either I'm off in my interpretation of what's going on, or there's something strange going on. Either way, that's not a great basis upon which to be making decisions. I'll make comments based on what I see but be aware that the usual setups just aren't working out.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:50:41 PM

BIX.X WKLY R1 right here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:50:05 PM

BIX.X 260.00 +5.23% ... good eye Jerry!

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:47:01 PM

10-year off just 2.1 bp now at 3.738% ... WKLY S1 right here.

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 12:46:44 PM

SPX is back up to its October downtrend line, where price was stopped yesterday, just under 1402 now. A little higher is the trend line along the highs since April 7th, currently just under 1406.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:45:37 PM

VZ $39.07 +1.53% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:45:22 PM

T $39.84 +2.89% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:45:09 PM

Q $5.20 +0.77% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:44:46 PM

North American Telecom (XTC.X) 847.24 +1.87% ... 19.1% conventional.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:43:53 PM

NDX 1,969.91 +2.72% ... watch out here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:42:55 PM

5-year down jst 0.5 bp now. WKLY S1 held yield support, price sellers.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 12:42:00 PM

The possility exists that this is still all part of the tamping down process that begins after the initial boundaries of a triangle have been established in the post-FOMC decision. Usually those boundaries are established the afternoon of the decision, but it's not impossible that the process is still ongoing. Watch that next potential resistance now at about 1403.25.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:40:47 PM

CRB Index 397.93 -2.77% (30-min delayed) ... slips below round-number 400.00 support. WKLY S2 409

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 12:39:29 PM

INTC is looking very strong today, currently up nearly +4.6%. But it's now approaching potential resistance in the 23.20-23.50 area with a confluence of Fib projections there and the top of a parallel up-channel for price action since its early-March low. Just a bit higher is its 200-dma at 23.77. The bounce pattern off the January low should be a correction of the December-January decline and therefore the setup here is for a short play, ideally with an entry near 23.50 (currently printing 23.29). Daily chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 12:39:20 PM

I'm editing portions of the Wrap for tonight and just discovered that in the portion dealing with the Challenger Gray & Christmas report on layoffs, I'd noted that the telecommunications industry would "off" 8,007. That's one way to trim the work force, I guess!

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 12:38:00 PM

Ok here I go out on a limb again. Earlier this week I stated, I think the SPX will CLOSE above resistance this week. Not just trade above but I have gone all the way out to say a CLOSE. Geesh! Link

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 12:37:16 PM

If the SPX can break free of that rising trendline, we'll need to watch that potential upside target set a while ago by the Keltner channels, with that target now at 1402.86. That's also potential resistance on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:35:38 PM

QQQQ $48.34 +2.39% ... gets the trade at 50% conventional.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 12:35:13 PM

Needless to say the markets are all well above their respective overnight highs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:31:59 PM

Kind'a "torn" on RIO ... positive implication from S&P, yet copper once again has trouble at the $4.00 level.

Good for Brazil, bad for copper. Can weight a trade accordingly.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 12:30:59 PM

At 5269.31 as I type, the TRAN closely approaches next potential resistance on 15-minute closes at 5279.70 and 5288.60. SPX, OEX and Dow bulls want to see the TRAN burst through or at least continue to challenge that resistance, but be careful here as this presumably strong resistance is tested. This is particularly important because the TRAN is close to confirming a potential continuation-form inverse H&S on its 15-minute chart, but if it does, it's going to slam immediately into that potential resistance.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 12:31:49 PM

The internals are telling me the bulls are in the driver's seat today. The VIX is making new daily lows - bullish. AD volume is making new daily highs - bullish. AD volume ratio is making new daily highs supporting the AD volume so bullish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:27:59 PM


Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:27:56 PM

RTP $459.67 -2.19% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:27:30 PM

BHP $79.17 -1.84% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:26:46 PM

Sep Copper (hg08u) 3.72 -4.12% ... it's this against yesterday news out of S&P regarding Brazil.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:25:47 PM

RIO $37.83 -3.19% ... wouldn't mind a SWC type move here.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 12:26:06 PM

Here's the retest of the SPX's megaphone's lower trendline: Link The choppy rise of this morning's low questioned whether the SPX would get this high, but it did! Watch now for rollover potential. There's the possibility that the trendline should be extended back to Friday, with that version a little lower than this (cutting through that gap between yesterday afternoon's two long red candles). That version would already be pierced. Still, I would watch for rollover potential, looking to those just-in-case plans you made if you're in bullish trades.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:25:07 PM

Like removing the cap from a very hot radiator. If adding bullish position with DXY at this key resistance, turn the cap SLOWLY. Don't go "all in" at once. TRADE MANAGEMENT is critical here. IF DXY makes the break higher and shorts really start to move in, that could escalate buying in equities. Worth being there with some partials.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:21:48 PM

I feel/observe great pressure.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:21:25 PM

DXY did see trade at Q Piv

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:19:55 PM

I'm thinking even those "whiney bulls" in some mining and energy stocks that didn't get what they wanted from the Fed, might back off there selling in some 1, 2 and 3-lettered stocks, and the happy bulls in NASDAQ press the issue.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:17:56 PM

See if it'll reclaim WKLY S2 at a MINIMUM.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:16:56 PM

SWC $13.05 -7.96% ... did trade 12.99.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:16:29 PM

NYSE Comp ... 9,299.37 (unch)

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:10:06 PM

Disclosure: I currently hold bullish position in NVDA.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:09:47 PM

Swing trade call option alert! ... for one (1) of the NVIDIA NVDA June $20 Calls (UVAFD) at the offer of $2.40.

No stop for now. Target $26.00

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 12:07:02 PM

SPX is bouncing back up toward the level of the February 1st high (the same 1396 Fib level for this morning's 62% retracement) and that adds to potential resistance. A little higher would be a retest of its broken uptrend line from April 24th (the bottom of the rising wedge which it broke below yesterday afternoon), currently near 1397.50. 60-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:01:36 PM

Comcast (CMCSA) $21.89 +6.52% ... bold move today. Jumps #2 most active

Robert Ogilvie : 5/1/2008 12:01:26 PM

Investor's Intelligence numbers came in yesterday with an increase of bullish advisers and a decrease in bearish advisers. % Bullish increased 1.8% to 40.9% % Bearish decreased 3.8% to 31.8% An increasing spread between the two numbers indicates a bullish bias until the Bullish% tops 55%. A change of direction from here would be considered to be negative.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 11:59:49 AM

If you haven't done it already and you're in bullish trades, make your profit-protecting, just-in-case plans for a test of the SPX 1396-1398 level, if it should be tested. The SPX actually has a higher potential upside target according to keltner channels, with that target now at 1402.59. That's the next place to look for rollover potential if it's tested, but I'm not certain the SPX will get that far. Since breaking above the 1392-1393 zone, the candles have not been exactly exuberantly bullish. There's some hesitation showing up there.

Robert Ogilvie : 5/1/2008 11:54:55 AM

The CBOE 10 Year Treasury yield is currently holding the 89 Day Moving Average. It appears that there is support at the 3.68% level. The 50 Day Exponential Moving Average is approaching the 89 Day for a convergence of price support. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 11:53:47 AM

NASDAQ Comp (COMPX) 2,455 +1.75% ... trades 38.2% conventional. First time, first time since 1/23/08.

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 11:52:39 AM

Another small push up this morning could have SPX tagging potential resistance near 1396 and the DOW near 12900. If resistance holds I'd try shorting it there. Use a stop at SPX 1398. Next resistance level is near 1401.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 11:50:44 AM

We now have a pattern of SPX 15-minute closes above the 9-ema and the 120-ema, an important benchmark on the 15-minute chart. That earlier setup has now been erased, and a move toward the trendline off the 4/29 high might be next, but there's potential Keltner resistance now at 1395.22. So far, that's been holding, too, on 15-minute closes.

Robert Ogilvie : 5/1/2008 11:41:44 AM

Goldman Sachs (GS) is pushing up toward its 200 DMA. See chart. It might find resistance here with both the Stochastics and RSI at overbought levels. I will be watching for a break and close above the 200 DMA on strong volume to go long. Otherwise, it may turn out to be a short call candidate. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 11:40:49 AM

The SPX isn't breaking free of that resistance on 15-minute closes, but it certainly isn't falling back or giving up the test, either. A test of 1398 (trendline off the 4/29 low) can't be ruled out yet, but I would watch for rollover potential if it is.

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 11:40:47 AM

Your chart of the TRAN last night indicates a blue uptrend line from March 2003. How can you draw an uptrend line like that. When I draw a line from that point to today, the TRAN is not close. Please explain.

The uptrend line on my daily TRAN chart (this morning's update: Link ) is drawn from March 2003 through September 2006. This line seems to have the most "tags" by price over the years, including support for the June and October 2005 pullbacks and then the December 2007 retest from underneath.

I'm using the arithmetic scale on this chart because the log scale shows good support in 2006 and 2007 but once it was broken in early August 2007 it hasn't come close to retesting the line so I've stayed with the arithmetic scale on TRAN to watch or continued influence on traders. Check your selection of scale to see if that's what the difference is on your chart.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 11:37:15 AM

SWC RISK ANALYSIS (more comments below at the 11:35:19) ... If you've ever been long a stock, had it hedged with a put, this may also be helpful in a decision making process. Do something, or do nothing other than exercise your put option.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 11:35:13 AM

The A/D line's 15-minute 9-ema is now about +670. Equity bulls would like to see that maintained on 15-minute closes. Bears want the opposite, of course.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 11:33:49 AM

I'm watching the TRAN, which has been rising toward Keltner resistance that's now at 5273.50-5281.50. This is the benchmark that notes breakout status. Earlier in the week, the TRAN broke out, but then by yesterday I was noting that it was finding resistance on 15-minute closes at those Keltner lines. (They were at a different level yesterday since they're dynamic.) Although prices had risen, there was bearish divergence in the way the TRAN was treating that test. If that divergence is to continue, the TRAN should find resistance there again today. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the TRAN couldn't quite reach it. Sustained 15-minute closes above it would change the setup, of course, and erase that divergence. For now, though, consider the possibility that the TRAN is topping out over the short-term and might eventually drop back toward 5168-5174.

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 11:29:51 AM

POT is collapsing here, do you see a bottom here before a new high, or do you see it still going to go lower?

The pullback is now larger than I would have expected if there was going to be a new high coming. That?s a bit subjective and POT needs to get below the 3 highs near 165 in Feb/Mar to tell us the high is in. In the meantime the 50-dma just under 170 and 100-dma near 154 make for good downside targets/support. I suspect it will eventually make its way down to its 200-dma, currently near 127 but rising, before finding firmer support. Daily chart (log scale): Link

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 11:29:43 AM

On the last 15-minute close, the SPX did not successfully break free (on 15-minute closes) of the resistance that now layers up to 1394.26 but should be strongest near 1392.14-1393. It's been testing it again during this 15-minute period and again, hasn't successfully broken free yet.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 11:35:19 AM

SWC ... $13.21 -6.84% Link

Once I've got a bottom line assessment of where the long stock and long put is at, it becomes MANDATORY to assess further levels of RISK.

In late January, early February, SWC surged as power outages in S. Africa shut down many mining operation. That sent shares of SWC sharply higher.

I haven't seen any news (doesn't mean there isn't any) regarding status of those power outages, but stock and Palladium itself starting to look "dollar-tied".

RISK #1 = Is right in here at the bullish support trend $13.00. Will note that WKLY S2 right here at $13.25. Do I close out the put for profit, and hope for rebound?

Risk #2 = $12.00. From $13.00 to $12.00, that's another -$100.00 on an UNHEDGED position. Seeing what we see with the DXY, or Eur/$ is it WORTH THE RISK?

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 11:23:41 AM

Interestingly the NYSE gapped down this morning and remains marginally in the red. I'm not sure what's influencing that broader average other than perhaps the commodity stocks which are getting hit hard today.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 11:22:41 AM

Notice the two yellow boxes I have on this daily chart of the US$ (kind of hard not to notice the boxes heh). The $ looks like it is in a sideways consolidation correct? The MACD looks like it is rising correct? That is bullish correct?

Well I take a different stance on this pattern. I look at a sideways consolidation with a MACD rising as bearish. The only rub here is that I'm not entirely sure price is moving sideways because this is a very wide sideways range. I have no way of measuring a sideways move other than just eyeballing it and after years of watching price patterns I have gotten pretty good at it. This pattern does not give me the sense of sideways but a bottom. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 11:15:11 AM

SWC stock position is -$472.00.

At a bid of $4.10, the SWC-QW with entry of $2.85 = +$125.00.

Trade Net = -$347.00.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 11:13:53 AM

So, we get to see right away if the SPX is going to prove me wrong as per my 10:55 post. It's pushed up into the potential resistance levels now extending up to 1394.14 on 15-minute closes. If it closes this 15-minute period above about 1392.15 and particularly above 1393.20, it undoes that whole setup talked about in that post and then we need to start looking at potential resistance (trendline) that's now risen to 1396.80-1397.60.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 11:12:00 AM

Here's what were looking at with a bull entry in SWC at $18.00 for 100 shares.

With SWC $13.28 the SWC-QW $4.10 x $4.40.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 11:09:58 AM

Hindsight 20/20, probably should have had a hard stop on the underlying SWC at $16.00 Link while I was away.

Here at bullish support trend, we could get a bounce. Still doing the math, this underwater in the SWC itself, need some sign of firming before I would sell the put for a profit, hoping/looking for the buyers at trend.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 11:03:55 AM

Stillwater Mining (SWC) $13.28 -6.34% ... hit again today. Will likely exercise the SWC-QW against the underlying. That is, "put the stock" at $17.50.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 11:02:41 AM

YRC Worldwide (YRCW) $17.65 +8.61% ... wouldn't you just know it. Above the $17.50 strike.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 10:59:01 AM

The A/D line has been coiling for the last hour. It's coiling near the high of the day, so if you're already bullish, you're reading this as bullish, too, and perhaps pointing to a possible rise toward +975. I'm just seeing a lot of volatility while acknowledging the possible rise.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 10:55:22 AM

The current setup on the SPX's 15-minute chart suggests that the SPX is slightly more likely to drop to 1385.16 than it is to sustain breaks above 1392.11-1393.26, but only slightly more likely at this reading. Probably about the time this post is uploaded, the markets will do something to provet this take wrong! It's that kind of market environment as market participants sort out all the information they've been given.

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 10:51:45 AM

Yesterday I mentioned GOOG as a setup for a short play. I showed resistance in the 585-600 area and mentioned the price pattern from Monday's low would look best with one more push higher to complete a 5-wave move. After yesterday afternoon's pullback GOOG has made a new high this morning and tagged its broken uptrend line from March 2005 at its high of 588.83 and in so doing it has now completed that 5-wave move I wanted to see.

It is now a very good setup for a short play and my recommendation is to be short GOOG against this morning's high. A slightly better stop, as I mentioned yesterday, is just above gap closure at 600.25 from January 18th. Either one offers a nice tight stop (for a volatile stock like GOOG) with a large reward potential (back down below 400). Link

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 10:49:09 AM

Here is the daily chart of the US$ against a basket of currencies. Link

James Brown : 5/1/2008 10:49:06 AM

Priceline.com (PCLN) is also showing relative strength. Earlier this morning the stock spiked to a new all-time high over resistance near $132.00. The stock has since pared its gains and is trading near $132.00, up 3.3% for the day.

I couldn't find any relevant news on the company yet.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 10:47:18 AM

Gold is getting sold off as well and my long Gold position has been stopped out.

Anyone want to guess what the US$ is doing today. I have not looked so far today but I bet it is up. Link

James Brown : 5/1/2008 10:47:00 AM

The SMN is showing a lot of strength this morning, up 5.3% to over $35.00.

The SMN is the UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares. This is an ETF that tries to double the inverse of the Dow Jones U.S. Basic Materials index.

The weekly chart is suggesting a possible bottom here near $30.00. Of course this means a potential top for the Basic materials index.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 10:45:15 AM

Crude is getting sold heavily today and is now testing support at $110/bl, March 17th swing high and the 38.20 fib level.

This is a good spot to start looking for another long. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 10:39:42 AM

And, so far, the SPX's potential resistance on 15-minute closes, now from 1392.14-1393.70, is holding. The SPX is currently testing the 15-minute 9-ema, now at 1389.70, however, and its support may yet hold. Next potential support is 1385.24 (on 15-minute closes), but it's really the 1383.19 support on 30-minute closes that should be watched. Bears need to see that broken to believe that anything other than choppy action is occurring.

James Brown : 5/1/2008 10:38:47 AM

Crude oil is down about $1.60 to $111.88...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 10:37:43 AM

DJ (earlier)- NYMEX 1Q NET UP 27% AS VOLATILITY BOOSTS VOLUME

DJ- Nymex Holdings, which is being acquired by CME for $3.4 billion, posts 1Q net of $71.2 million, or 75c a share, as market volatility helps to boost average daily volume. Analysts expected EPS of 82c. Revenue climbs 27% to $208.9 million.

CME $471.38 +3.04% Link ...

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 10:34:39 AM

Quite a difference this morning with techs about to make new highs above yesterdays and the DOW not even able to retrace 38% of yesterday's decline yet. A new high in the techs but not the blue chips would be another topping sign (non-confirmation). That's obviously an early call but something I'm watching for.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 10:34:05 AM

DJ (earlier)- PAULSON SEES POSITIVES IN INFLATION NEWS

Despite pressure from sharply higher food and energy prices, the inflation picture in the U.S. is 'more good than bad,' U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson tells Nightly Business Report on PBS.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 10:33:08 AM

Manpower (MAN) $68.21 +1.60% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 10:32:13 AM

Monster Worldwide (MNST) $25.46 +4.64% Link ... may be short covering. Stock recently achieved bearish vertical count.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 10:30:53 AM

DJ (earlier)- US LAYOFFS JUMP TO 19-MONTH HIGH

Led by cost-conscious financial companies, major U.S. corporations announce 90,015 job reductions in April, up 68% from March and the most since September 2006, according to Challenger Gray & Christmas.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 10:29:30 AM

The A/D line fell back from its test of Keltner resistance, mentioned earlier, but it's climbing again, perhaps toward a retest. That resistance is now about +832 to +900, with the A/D line at 731 as I type. However, its 15-minute chart and candle setup looks different than the SPX's, for example, and should be watched for any sharper pullback. It led the SPX higher, as volume patterns often lead, but it's not leading now and that's something that should be watched as the SPX rises into a test of potentially significant resistance near 1392-1394.

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 10:29:06 AM

We haven't seen much a pullback yet, especially in the techs. But if prices press higher again there are some Fibs lining up near SPX 1396 and DOW 12890-12900 that I'll be watching for resistance and a shorting opportunity.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 10:29:54 AM

DJ (earlier)- CIGNA 1Q NET SLUMPS 80% ON REINSURANCE LOSSES

Net income drops to $58 million, or 21c a share, led by losses at its guaranteed minimum-income benefits segment. Excluding items, earnings are 94c, a penny shy of expectations. Revenue climbs 4.5% to $4.57 billion. Shares fall 4%.

CI $41.13 -3.69% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 10:29:31 AM

DJ (earlier) - TYCO RAISES 2008 FORECAST; 2Q NET FALLS 66%

Tyco International posts net income of $280 million. Excluding charges, EPS is 67c. Net revenue rises 8.4% to $4.87 billion. Wall Street expected earnings of 57c a share on $4.94 billion in revenue. Firm now sees 2008 EPS in line with Wall Street. Shares fall 5%.

TYC $45.24 -3.31% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 10:24:52 AM

US Orders Belarus To Close Embassy In Washington

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 10:20:50 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Note: It would currently take a closing session measure of 52.00% or lower for the NYSE 10-day NH/NL ratio to reverse back lower.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 10:17:50 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures fell nearly 1% Thursday, as a rise in the U.S. dollar dampened investment demand for the precious metal.

Gold for June delivery dropped $8.40 to $856.60 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

"The return of dollar strength this morning has led to a swift reversal in direction with gold dropping back to $864, and given the pace of decline, suggests gold will remain at risk to further corrections in the coming sessions," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com, in a research note.

Gold had finished Wednesday's regular trading session sharply lower, ending down $11.70 at $865.10. However, in electronic trading, gold rallied, boosted by the Federal Reserve's decision to cut the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 2.0%.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 10:15:53 AM

Thanks, Jane, for your comments on my post about outstanding commercial paper and the Bank of England's actions. I never thought I'd regret not having a degree in economics, but these days, I do. I couldn't major in everything, though, although I tried my best! LOL.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 10:11:09 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Manufacturing activity contracted again in April for the third straight month, the Institute for Supply Management reported Thursday. The ISM index was steady at 48.6% in April, the same as in March. Economists were looking for a decline to 48.0%. Readings under 50% indicate more firms are contracting than expanding. The new-orders index was steady at 46.5% in April. The employment index fell to 45.4% in April from 49.2% in March. The prices index rose to 84.5% in April from 83.5% in March.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 10:10:43 AM

March construction spending falls 1.1%

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 10:10:27 AM

April ISM 48.6% vs. 48.0% expected

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 10:09:43 AM

Linda excellent comments in your 9:57 post. It looks like the Wrap tonight will be well worth reading, like they always are.

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 10:08:54 AM

SPX will retrace 38% of yesterday's decline at 1391.22. Ideally we're going to see this morning's bounce followed by a quick pullback and then another leg up (for a 3-wave bounce) to then set up a shorting opportunity a little later.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 10:07:46 AM

Watch that 1392.22-1393.38 level on the SPX for rollover potential, and especially watch the 1396.40 level (rising trendline off the lows from 4/29 through the pre-FOMC-decision period yesterday), if the SPX should reach that far. I don't know that this is settled yet.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 10:07:36 AM

DJ- Dollar Extends Gains Vs. Euro After ISM Mfg Index

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 10:06:04 AM

The A/D line has jumped all the way up to potential resistance near +850 to +900 on 15-minute closes. It's spanned all the way from nearly the bottom to nearly the top of a channel that usually encloses most movement of the A/D line, all in the first 35 minutes of trading.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 10:04:31 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now 1389.01, potential resistance on 15-minute closes. Potential support now is 1385.40 on 15-minute closes, lower at 1383.31-1384.64 on 30-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 10:03:27 AM

The A/D line has broken strongly higher, but let's see what happens now. So far, not much.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 9:59:10 AM

VIX breaking to new daily lows and the AD line is now at +444. Not the most bullish picture on could paint but more bullish than earlier.

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 9:58:14 AM

This morning's rally attempt is once again being led by the techs. NDX has retraced just shy of 62% of yesterday's decline (1936). Upside potential is back up to 1953-1957 which remains a brick wall until the bulls manage to knock it down.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 9:57:32 AM

While waiting for the ISM, here's a portion of tonight's Wrap, relating to the Federal Reserve's release this morning of weekly figures on outstanding corporate paper, as well as the Bank of England's action today:

The Federal Reserve released its weekly figures on outstanding corporate paper this morning. Continuing a disturbing trend, outstanding corporate paper dropped another week, this time by a seasonally adjusted $21.2 billion. Even more disturbing, asset-backed paper was responsible for the bulk of the drop, $17.7 billion.

The Bank of England today announced in its twice-yearly report that the process of marking to market some the values of some illiquid securities such as CDO's might be understating the value of those securities. The credit crunch might result in such actions going too far. The International Monetary Fund has so far not agreed, with the IMF's estimate of credit-related losses being higher than many other estimates. However, the Bank of England purports that losses could be much less than either the market estimate or the IMF's, with those at $400 billion and $900 billion, respectively, while the Bank of England believes $170 billion may be closer to the mark (pun intended).

I've heard other recent arguments against the mark-to-market process, saying that it might be distorting the value of these securities. The Bank of England appears to espouse that argument. In its report, the Bank of England called other figures exaggerated. Risk appetite will gradually appear again, the Bank of England noted, and it believes that its own liquidity program will help reestablish that risk appetite. Still, significant risks remain, the bank warned.

Unless there's some reason for the continuing sharp declines in outstanding corporate paper that I don't understand, the Federal Reserve's figures would seem to support the idea that risks remain. These figures don't support the idea that the credit crunch is easing so far.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 9:55:24 AM

Although it is a little early to get a good reading from the VIX (sounds like I go to a tarot card reader heh?) I do see the VIX hovering at daily lows telling me the bulls are at least in this game today.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 9:50:15 AM

The OEX never set a new downside target on its 15-minute chart, instead finding support on 15-minute closes at 640.97. Further potential support exists at about 639.15 on 30-minute closes. If it continues rising, however, it will encounter several forms of potential resistance from 642.89-644.56. These include trendline (off the 4/22 low) as well as various Keltner potential resistance levels on both the 15- and 30-minute charts. Watch for rollover potential in that zone if it's tested.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 9:46:42 AM

The SPX's potential support on 30-minute closes has been driven lower to about 1383.25 by this morning's drop. Although the A/D line, at -235 currently, still looks as if it could drop to about -370 now before it finds support, it's possible that we'll see the SPX chop around that potential 30-minute support into the release of the ISM. If that scenario should play out, we then won't know whether the SPX will then be bounced up into next resistance to test that or if it will break through the support after the ISM. If the SPX instead bounces before the ISM, the next potential Keltner resistance is at 1389.52 on 15-minute closes and then 1392.31-1392.72.

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 9:39:23 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: The A/D line is now continuing its consolidation beneath the benchmark 15-minute 120-ema. That average is now +248.81 with further potential resistance layered up to about +390. This action sets a potential downside target of the A/D line at about -350, although the A/D line, so far, has not shown an inclination to drop that far. The consolidation pattern, however, looks like the type that usually occurs about midway down a move, so a further drop in the A/D line certainly looks possible from a technical standpoint at least. Bears should then not count on a move down toward -350, but bulls should certainly factor that into their planning. For those who don't follow the A/D line or my posts, a move down in the A/D line would likely carry equities lower, too.

As I typed, the A/D line began breaking out of that consolidation pattern to the downside. It's -86 as I type.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 9:36:21 AM

AD line opens at an anemic +60

Linda Piazza : 5/1/2008 9:31:48 AM

Futures traders weren't too happy with the pre-market releases this morning. Futures moved from marginally above fair values to marginally below them. All traders should be aware this morning, however, that the most important release of the day, the ISM, comes at 10:00 am ET, thirty minutes after the market opens. Plan trades (new entries or exits from existing trades) accordingly as this number can and often does move the markets.

The SPX's 15-minute chart showed a potential downside target of 1373.50 as of yesterday's close, but that target had barely been set by 15-minute closes that were just barely overrunning potential Keltner support and benchmark levels. I'm turning to the 30-minute chart then, for confirmation. That chart shows potential support on 30-minute closes at 1383.40, so obviously we can't believe too strongly in downside to 1373.50 if the SPX doesn't break through that 30-minute support. As I've noted since last Friday, last week's weekly candle was a potential reversal signal, so equity bulls don't want to see a strong down week this week.

What if the SPX bounces instead? The 15-minute 9-ema is now 1389.75 and stronger resistance is now 1391.84-1393.75. I would look for rollover potential at one of those places and definitely at 1396 if the SPX should rise that far in early trading. While I don't discount the possibility of a rise before the ISM, I doubt that it would get to 1396 early in the day, but I've been surprised before and will be again, so I list the number anyway.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 9:28:37 AM

Since I changed my charts to a weekly timeframe when I was looking at the Gold chart I thought maybe a look at the SPX on a weekly timeframe would be a good idea as well. This chart just goes to show the resistance SPX is up against and a close above 1400 is the ticket to testing the next resistance at 1525. Link

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 9:21:25 AM

The drop in equity futures since the highs near 6:30 AM now looks like the opposite of the manufactured spikes we've often seen, which don't hold after the cash market opens. We could be setting up a quick spike down at the open (but futures are not down that much) to trap a few shorts and then start the bounce that I'm anticipating this morning. So be a little careful at the open if you're expecting follow through to the downside.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 9:21:25 AM

Here are the overnight charts of the major index markets. Both the S&P (ES) the Dow futures (YM) have tagged their previous day lows but have not yet broken those lows. Since the ON charts are rather listless I suspect those lows will hold at least until the open.

Obviously we are in for a weak open as well as another non-directional day and until we break the trading ranges this may be all we get. Link

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 9:10:24 AM

Here is the Gold 50 week moving average. Since some think an MA should be simple and some think exponential I have put on both. Black is the simple and magenta is exponential. Link

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 9:06:02 AM

Couldn't have said it better myself Mr. Russell.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 9:05:10 AM

Here is a comment from Richard Russell of the Dow Theory Letters. "Why do central banks fear gold, why do they continue to attempt to denigrate gold, why do they want to keep the gold prices down in order to make it unattractive? The reason, of course, is that gold is outside the system. Gold doesn't depend on any central bank or any government to bestow power on it. Gold is wealth on its own -- no matter where you live and no matter what your government's policy is. Gold means economic freedom."

But in the past few days, he's been more specific: "One effective guide has simply been the 50-week moving average. When gold rises too far above its 50-week MA, it tends to correct. When gold drops below its 50-week MA, it tends to get "sticky" on the downside ... The MA comes in now at 782, or let's call the support at 800. So will gold correct to 800? Honestly, nobody knows."

Yes, yes, Russellphobes (a vocal group), I know you don't pay money to hear that "nobody knows." But in Russell's world, it's meaningful. Here's Russell's bottom line on gold: "Don't worry about gold, this is just a long overdue correction. I've been through these corrections many times before. Hold onto your gold. Don't panic with the Johnny-come-latelies."

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 8:49:21 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Wrapping up the first three months in world history with oil at $100 a barrel and rising fast, Exxon Mobil on Thursday said first-quarter profit gushed 17% higher, but the petroleum giant fell short of its all-time record set last year.

Exxon Mobil said profit rose to $10.89 billion, or $2.03 a share, from $6.8 billion, or $1.62 a share in the year-ago period. Analysts expected net income of $2.12 a share, on average, according to a survey by FactSet. Net income estimates ranged from $11.65 billion on the bullish side down to $10.79 billion on the low end.

The world's largest corporation by market cap fell $1 billion short of its all-time record of $11.7 billion from the fourth quarter of 2007. While oil prices climbed between the fourth quarter and the first quarter, Exxon said capital and exploration expenditures for the three months ended March 31 rose 30% to $5.49 billion from $4.2 billion in the year-ago period.

"Higher crude oil and natural gas realizations, driven by record worldwide crude oil prices, were partly offset by lower refining and chemical margins, lower production volumes and higher operating costs," Exxon Mobil said.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 8:47:18 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Erasing the drop in claims reported last week, first-time filings for state unemployment benefits surged 35,000 to 380,000 in the week ending April 26, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Wall Street economists had expected a result of 360,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims fell 6,500 to 363,750. For the week ending April 19, continuing jobless claims rose 74,000 to 3.02 million - the highest level since April 2004. The four-week average of continuing claims rose 16,750 to 2.98 million - the highest since May 2004.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2008 8:46:56 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Higher prices took away all the income gains U.S. households received in March, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday.

Consumer prices rose 0.3% during the month, matching the 0.3% rise in incomes that was expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Real disposable incomes were unchanged in March after accounting for taxes and inflation. Real disposable incomes are up 0.9% in the past year.

Consumer spending increased 0.4%, or just 0.1% after adjusting for rising prices. Economists expected a 0.3% rise in spending.

The report on personal incomes fleshes out monthly details contained in the quarterly report on gross domestic product released on Wednesday. That report showed consumer spending rose at the slowest pace in seven years during the first three months of the year.

Inflation accelerated during March, pushed by higher prices for services and nondurable goods, such as food and energy. Core prices - which exclude food and energy - rose 0.2%, a tick higher than expected.

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