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OI Technical Staff : 5/2/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 8:34:00 PM

London election officers saying Conservative party's Johnson wins London's mayorship. Ousts Labour's Livingstone. Could deal blow to UK's Prime Minister Brown as Labour loses London's City Hall. Brown must now call a national election by mid-2010.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 7:57:18 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 7:57:09 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

They just don't want to let those NASDAQ NH and NL stay reverted for too long do they?

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 7:26:36 PM

Look at that 13-week yield too. 0.99%. Couldn't get enough could they as buyer drove it down to 0.20% by 03/20/08!

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 7:23:12 PM

Oh my! "Pot of Gold At End of Bear's Rainbow" Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 7:19:01 PM

Here's my FF08Z Link

What "changed" after 03/14?

On 03/14, this contract depicted that the MARKET was predicting a 75% chance the Fed would cut rates 75 basis points (on 03/14, FF target was still 2.25%).

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 7:04:55 PM

Various Energy Futures and even Fed Fund Futures at this Link

A little easier on a Friday to observe "crack spreads" and percentage changes. QCharts is funny in that 5DyNet% is 5 calendar days. So, Friday to Friday close.

Down at the bottom, the Fed Fund futures.

See the December (ff08z)? 20 days ago, they were HIGHER at 98.19. So... 100 - 98.19 = 1.81% FF target.

Slight "change" taken place the last 20 days as to Fed policy.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 6:49:31 PM

Here's the iShares Link too.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 6:46:36 PM

Then here's your ETF Heatmap Link

Drag your cursor across each to see what it is. Theres quite a few international ones in there.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 6:42:40 PM

Before you look at this (05/01/08 World Bullish %) ... see my 06:32:57 PM, then 06:35:31 PM posts.

05/01/08 World Bullish % Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 6:35:31 PM

Hey... quick quiz ... what GLOBAL bullish % do you think has show the MOST reversing higher PnF buy Signals? Which one the LEAST?

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 6:34:14 PM

At last night's close, oh heck ... let's post it. See if anything changed since last night.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 6:33:31 PM

When Dorsey gets things updated, I'll post tonight's closing globla bullish %.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 6:32:57 PM

World Bullish % (02/14, 03/24 and 03/31) as you and I became alert to strength Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 5:55:58 PM

Dow Jones Global Indexes - (52-week & 2008 YTD) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 5:46:51 PM

You gott'a love these two headlines ...

#1: Tax On Services Harms California's Economy
DJ- A sales tax on services, including those provided by accountants, would be unnecessarily burdensome on small businesses, tax consumers for filing taxes, and prompt businesses to move to states that do not tax services, says the California Society of CPAs (CalCPA). "CalCPA opposes any effort to impose a tax on services," said Teresa Mason, chair of the 32,000-member association. "Consumers in California already pay among the nation's highest sales taxes on products. A sales tax on services is an extra burden on consumers as well as on businesses." Mason's comments responded to reports that the administration of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger may recommend taxes on services in order to compensate for a shortfall in the state budget. "Businesses who pay sales taxes on services they use will have to raise the prices of products they sell consumers to compensate," Mason noted. "And if accounting services are taxed, people and small businesses will be paying a tax for having CPAs and tax preparation services prepare their federal and state returns. That's essentially a tax on taxes." In addition, Mason observed that California taxpayers would likely not be able to deduct taxes on services from their federal income taxes; thus, their overall tax burden would be higher than that of residents of states that do not tax services. Mason said that a tax on services could result in businesses leaving the state for states that do not impose similar taxes. "If the goal is to find additional sources of revenue, how will that happen if businesses--as well as their employees--flee the state? Fewer businesses and fewer employees mean state income tax revenue will drop. Taxing services unlikely will replace such lost revenue, let alone increase tax revenues overall." Mason also commented that a sales tax would complicate administrative record keeping on the part of small businesses unused to collecting taxes from clients. Such administrative costs would then be passed on to clients and consumers, further increasing the cost of services. "Consumers are motivated to save money wherever they can," Mason pointed out. "If businesses in regulated professions and industries are required to collect taxes for services, consumers may turn to unregulated and unscrupulous suppliers. Should that happen, consumers could get harmed and California's economy won't be helped either because the taxes will be lost." Added Mason, "Taxing services is a bad idea for the State of California. It will damage California's overall business climate. In the end, savvy businesses and consumers will move to other states with less egregious tax laws." About CalCPA The California Society of Certified Public Accountants (CalCPA) () is the nation's largest state accounting organization. It serves 32,000 members in public practice, private industry, education and government.

#2: Bond Insurers Urge Jefferson County, Ala. To Use Sales-Tax To Avert Crisis.
DJ- Two bond insurers have urged commissioners of Jefferson County, Ala., and their advisors to use sales-tax revenue to raise money to resolve its debt crisis. Jefferson County has spent the past few months desperately trying to refinance billions of dollars in sewer debt after its aggressive financing strategies and copious use of interest-rate swaps backfired in the midst of the current credit crunch. If the county fails and files for bankruptcy, it would be the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history. Jefferson County has been in negotiations with banks - including Bank of America Corp. (BAC), Bear Stearns Cos. (BSC), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH) - that are counterparties to the county's swaps agreements as well as trustees for bondholders. Last month, the County Commission approved an agreement with banks that allowed it to delay until May 15 a $53 million payment on its municipal sewer debt. In March, the county missed a deadline for a $184 million collateral payment due to banks that stemmed from problems with interest-rate swaps contracts related to the county's sewer debt. The bond insurers said more meetings are scheduled next week. In a joint statement, Financial Guaranty Insurance Co. and XL Capital Assurance Inc. said, "The plans that we have presented are focused on an overall solution that makes use of the existing sales tax revenues to raise additional capital, the proceeds of which will be used to meaningfully reduce the debt of the sewer system. Our plans have also included recommendations to improve the overall operating efficiency of the sewer system which will allow the system to reaccess the capital markets to refinance the remainder of the sewer warrants and reduce debt service costs." Possibly complicating the situation is a civil action filed Wednesday by the Securities and Exchange Commission alleging that Birmingham Mayor Larry Langford accepted more than $156,000 during 2003 and 2004 in exchange for steering billions of dollars of municipal finance work to a local broker-dealer firm run by his friend William Blount. Jefferson County holds Birmingham, the state's largest city. While market participants expected the impact of the SEC action on the overall municipal market to be muted, it could complicate matters for the banks involved in Jefferson County's debt. In its complaint, the SEC alleges Langford selected the firm Blount Parrish to participate in every Jefferson County municipal bond offering and security-based swap agreement transaction during 2003 and 2004, serving as lead- or co-underwriter on several. The transactions added up to $6.4 billion and netted the firm $6.7 million in fees, which the SEC said comprised more than 70% of the firm's annual revenue during the period. Financial Guaranty Insurance Co. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of FGIC Corp. and XL Capital Assurance is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Security Capital Assurance Ltd. (SCA), a Bermuda-domiciled holding company.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 5:27:14 PM

Venezuela Oil Basket -$1.83 To $103.25 A Barrel As Of May 2

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 5:25:51 PM

Fannie Mae Seen Swinging To Loss In Q1 ... MarketWatch Story (preview earnings) Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 5:23:41 PM

Q1 Derivative loss $991M Vs. $382M Gain.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 5:23:13 PM

$27.8B in unrealized gains remained at 1Q end. was down $4B

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 5:20:10 PM

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) $133,600.00 -0.22% ... Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 5:17:13 PM

Really should look at the "Top 10" more frequently than I do.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 5:16:40 PM

P&G Sues J&J for Patent Infringement on Tooth-Whitening Strips

PG $66.80 -0.34% Link ... #9 weighted INDU/DIA/YM

JNJ $68.26 +0.66% Link ... #8 weighted INDU/DIA/YM

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 5:10:26 PM

CBOE Most Active Call, Put Option Series Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 5:08:14 PM

Just ahead of a possible "Merger Monday?"

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 5:07:19 PM

Ooooeeee! The YHOO puts and calls were active today.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 5:06:33 PM

New Century Bancorp 1Q Provision For Loan Losses $873,000

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 4:51:36 PM

Utilities HOLDRs (UTH) $134.37 +0.90% ... (see early MM posting)

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 4:51:02 PM

DJ- Scana: Monthly Bill Of 1,000 Kilowatt/Hr Customer To Rise 1.06%

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 4:48:09 PM

DJ- GOP Leaders Call For Hearings On US Fed Role In Dollar's Decline

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 4:46:55 PM

Intuit (INTU) $28.18 +1.03% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 4:46:35 PM

S&P Puts H&R Block On CreditWatch Positive

HRB $22.55 -1.52% Link ... quiet extended.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 4:42:42 PM

Hopefully and outflow.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 4:42:29 PM

Wonder what Venezuela's is?

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 4:42:14 PM

Colombia's 2008 Net Capital Inflow $2.44 Billion As of 04/18/08

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 4:38:27 PM

GE Surgery's X-Ray Unit (update)

DJ- General Electric Co.'s (GE) $600 million GE Surgery unit will be back online "within days" after a 20-month hiatus, following Food and Drug Administration findings that the unit wasn't reporting device malfunctions, the company said. GE bought the unit, then known as OEC Medical Systems, in 1999 for about $377 million. It operates a factory near Salt Lake City International Airport manufacturing C-shaped X-ray devices that allow doctors to see what is happening inside a patient during surgery. The one factory accounted for about 90% of the unit's business. Trouble first cropped up in 2004, when the FDA noted some issues with the plant's operations during a routine inspection. It followed up in the spring of 2005 with a warning letter. Then, unexpectedly, FDA inspectors showed up at the factory in August 2006 for a checkup, which led to GE voluntarily shutting the entire unit down. The FDA said it is uncommon that it would completely shut down a factory of such significance for a company. "It's huge," said Pete McCabe, who worked in quality control for GE Healthcare until taking over the unit following the shutdown. Such a closure happens only if there are systematic problems throughout a facility. The 300 units that will ship following final FDA approvals will be the first McCabe has seen go out the door. Each one costs between $100,000 and $250,000, depending on options. Among other issues the FDA noted, the unit wasn't filing required malfunction reports when its technicians went out to fix machines. In the FDA's database there are 449 reports for the latest generation of the X-ray machine - all of them since the shutdown. "We got religion, if you will," McCabe said. During the last 20 months McCabe said the factory has gone through a "comprehensive rebuilding of (its) quality management system processes," from design to manufacturing to maintenance, and made a variety of improvements to the product themselves. There are about 12,500 of the latest two models in operation. Many will be getting upgrades following the final approval.McCabe said, according to factory tests, the new product will be "the most reliable" the GE unit has ever produced. The plant employs about 600 people. GE's shares closed Friday at $33.34, up 22 cents.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2008 4:37:29 PM

Crude closes at $116.42/bl.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2008 4:36:46 PM

Economic reports on Monday:

10:00a.m. Apr ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Index. Previous: 49.6.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 4:35:18 PM

Not sure what that GE news is. Was "hot" news from DJ. Didn't get a chance to review GE's earnings. Stock got whacked. Due in part to X-Ray unit?

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 4:34:15 PM

DJ - GE: Surgery's $600M X-Ray Unit Back Online "Within Days"

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 4:32:47 PM

Dow Jones Corp. Bond Index 209.18 yield 5.62%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 4:30:53 PM

Not seeing BMY on the halt list .. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 4:29:51 PM

Ciber Extends Poison Pill To 2018

CBR $6.44 -1.07% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 4:29:07 PM

Bristol-Myers To Sell Wound-Care Unit For $4.1B

BMY $23.35 +1.78% ... may be halted ... last tick $23.35 @ 04:13.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 4:28:01 PM

Mexico's Stocks Close Higher, Led By Cemex; IPC Index +0.9%

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 4:24:01 PM

DJ- Senators Hutchison, McCain, 22 Other Republicans Write To EPA
EPA "Should Begin Process Of Examining Alternatives"

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 4:21:50 PM

San Fran and Boston are regional housing in the CME Housing futures.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 4:21:24 PM

Boston & San Franciso Top the National Inner City 100 List

DJ (partial) - Boston and San Francisco, two widely celebrated iconic American cities, were honored today for a less-publicized aspect of their urban legend: their vibrant inner cities. San Francisco led the Inner City 100, the annual list of the fastest growing inner city companies in the nation, with six companies, followed by Boston with five inner city companies named to the Inner City 100. The awards ceremony, the culmination of the two day Inner City 100 Summit, was held at the Boston Convention Center. "There are a number of reasons why each year Boston and San Francisco lead the list of cities with the most fast-growing companies, but high among them is recognition by their political and civic leaders that inner city companies play a critical role in the social as well as economic life of the city," said David Latimore, president and CEO of the Initiative for a Competitive Inner City (ICIC), a nonprofit organization that together with Inc. magazine has published the Inner City 100 list for the past 10 years. "They understand that inner city companies provide good jobs that are accessible to local residents. As businesses prosper, their success inspires neighborhood improvements and that, in turn, promotes further economic activity." Boston-based Roxbury Technology, which re-manufactures cartridges for laser printers, was number two on the list, while San Francisco-based Yerba Buena Engineering and Construction, which specializes in civil engineering projects, was number three on the list. Yerba Buena reported 2006 revenues of more than $14 million while Roxbury Technology reported over $11 million. Roxbury Technology had a slightly higher five-year standard growth rate (2,860 to 2,750) and has 39 employees to Yerba Buena's 38. And like the majority of inner city 100 companies, said Latimore, Roxbury Technology and Yerba Buena are good corporate citizens. "They both hire from the local community, and they both develop business relationships that connect them to the broader regional economy," he explained. The founder of Roxbury Technology was introduced to the owner of Staples, Inc., the national office supply giant, at a golf outing sponsored by the City of Boston and civic organizations. The two executives developed a business relationship that resulted in Roxbury Technology providing recycled laser printer cartridges to Staples outlets across the country. Roxbury Technology, owned and operated by an African-American woman, was honored as the top minority-owned and woman-owned business on the 2008 Inner City 100 list.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 4:19:59 PM

DJ- Republican Senators Ask EPA To Reconsider Biofuels Mandate

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 4:16:37 PM

NYT Live! MSFT Offered To Up YHOO Bid "By Several Dollars"

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 4:09:30 PM

Oh my! St. Mary Land & Expl (SM) $45.30 +6.73% ... had it flagged for $39.00 bull entry last night.

Keene Little : 5/2/2008 4:06:04 PM

Nice little jam into the close, just enough to keep everyone guessing as to what will happen on Monday.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 4:03:31 PM

CNBC reporting MSFT and YHOO talks intensifying last 48-hours.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 4:01:35 PM

BARE $20.75 ... URY-XQ $2.05 x $2.10

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 3:58:45 PM

Some takers at $2.20

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 3:55:13 PM

Unless things go to heck in a handbasket later this evening.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 3:54:40 PM

Today will be Day count #1 for the DXY as it closes ABOVE the upper-end of the downward "Bailey Wave" channel.

Keene Little : 5/2/2008 3:51:51 PM

From banks to techs to transports, the message I'm getting from the charts is pretty consistent. We put in a top today. We'll find out soon enough if that's the right call but it's what I'm seeing.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2008 3:51:37 PM

Here is McMillan'weekly commentary. At long last, there has been a resolution to the standoff regarding the market bumping up against the 1400 area of $SPX -- and it has been resolved with a strong upside breakout. Whatever technical short-comings might have accompanied this breakout, it should be propelled for a while by short covering and momentum trading. That should be able to drive $SPX to the former 1440-1450 resistance area at least. The 1390-1400 area, which was a major resistance area at which bulls and bears "did battle" for nearly two weeks should now serve as support. Any failure below 1390 would negate this breakout. The equity-only put-call ratios have correctly remained bullish since late March. The standard ratio (Figure 2) is in the midst of its recent range of values, but the weighted ratio (Figure 3) has already descended most of the way towards recent historical lows -- suggesting that this rally is closer to the end than the beginning. This is one of those technical short-comings. Regardless, these ratios remain bullish as long as they are descending on their charts.

Market breadth (advances minus declines) has not been strong (another technical short-coming). In fact, sell signals were generated twice in the past couple of weeks because breadth was not expanding. Nevertheless, the market has broken out on the upside anyway. Today's upside breakout was accompanied by strong, but not overwhelmingly, positive breadth and so the recent sell signals have been canceled out. Still, unless breadth continues to expand over the next few days, this indicator will move back into sell status.

The volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) have continued to decline since mid-March and as such have been on buy signals. As long as this downtrend in volatility continues, it is conducive to the bullish case. $VIX is now at its lowest levels since last December. At that time, the market reversed quickly and a bearish market leg developed. Currently, any reversal by $VIX back above 21 would be a warning sign, though, and a move above 23 would be a bearish signal.

In summary, this breakout is bullish and one has to trade from the long side as long as the indicators -- especially $VIX and the equity- only put-call ratios -- remain bullish. But don't get complacent, because the technical short-comings noted above are caution signs.

Keene Little : 5/2/2008 3:49:59 PM

The banks almost broke free of its descending wedge pattern that I've been showing for many weeks now but the BIX is also leaving a bearish reversal signal at the top of the wedge: Link

Jane Fox : 5/2/2008 3:47:40 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- June crude closed at $116.32 a barrel, up $3.80 for Friday's session. But the contract still lost 1.9% for the week. June reformulated gasoline finished at $2.966 a gallon, up 8.8 cents for the day. It lost 2.6% for the week.

Keene Little : 5/2/2008 3:47:21 PM

I showed the setup yesterday for the brokers (XBD) to head a little bit higher to the top of its down-channel from last October to complete an a-b-c correction off the March low, and that's what it did this morning. The setup looks good with a gravestone doji at resistance today for a reversal signal. Link

Jane Fox : 5/2/2008 3:45:47 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Yahoo Inc. shares surged late Friday afternoon amid reports that merger talks with Microsoft Corp. have "intensified," though no deal has yet been reached.

In late afternoon trading, shares of Yahoo were up more than 8% to $29 after the Wall Street Journal published a report on its Web site saying that "last-ditch" talks have intensified between the two companies to see if a friendly deal can be reached.

The Journal also reported, citing unnamed sources, that the talks could collapse, like previous attempts to reach a deal.

The negotiations are taking place as the market continued to await a decision from Microsoft regarding its $44 billion takeover offer, which Yahoo has previously rejected as too low.

Keene Little : 5/2/2008 3:44:27 PM

The semiconductor holder (SMH) hit its Fib target zone today buy tagging 32.03 for two equal legs up from January and 32.22 for a 38% retracement of the July-January decline. It doesn't mean it will turn around and head back down now but that's the setup and it's what I believe will be the next move. Otherwise a continuation of its rally would likely mean a trip up to the 34 area. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 3:44:05 PM

Still lined up like cows at milking time in NVDA at $22.50

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 3:37:35 PM

URYQX $1.90 x $2.15

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 3:37:02 PM

BARE $20.73

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 3:36:52 PM

Swing trade put place order alert! the sell the URY-QX for $2.35.

Keene Little : 5/2/2008 3:36:23 PM

Today's decline has the appearance of an impulsive 5-wave move down and the bounce off this afternoon's low looks very corrective (lots of chop and overlap). So while we could see the bounce hold into today's close, especially to hold onto that precious DOW 13K close, the setup is for a down day on Monday. That's obviously just a guess on my part but the longer and shorter-term price patterns fit so use it fwiw in making your own plans for what you hold over the weekend.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 3:36:13 PM

OK stick'em out there ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 3:34:57 PM

URYQX $1.80 x $1.95

BARE $20.90

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 3:34:04 PM

A 10-lotter might sit $1.90 with 1/2

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 3:32:58 PM

BARE's 19.1% dynamic right here at $21.03.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 3:30:42 PM

BARE $21.00

Keene Little : 5/2/2008 3:30:36 PM

After jumping above the trend line across the highs since March 24th this morning (the top of its rising wedge pattern), the DOW then dropped back below it and has now bounced back up to it at 13040. If this remains resistance then it will keep the sell signal. Otherwise the bulls could neutralize the bearish look of today's price action if they can get a close above 13050. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 3:30:05 PM

A couple of takers at $1.75

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 3:25:43 PM

We lost our flasher at $21.25

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 3:25:23 PM

BARE takes a look back under DAILY S2. $21.10

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 3:19:33 PM

Bond market closed 15-minutes ago.

13-week up 9.5 bp at 1.465%

5-year up 9.5 bp at 3.159%

10-year up 9.6 bp at 3.845%

30-year up 8.1 bp at 4.565%

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 3:16:54 PM

Just never know for sure who might be short. What the motive might be.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 3:16:06 PM

BIX.X 256.07 -0.72% ... DAILY Pivot held a buyer.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 3:08:48 PM

Trying to keep a closer eye on them ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 3:07:29 PM

Terminology: "Flashing" is an old trader technique where you systematically "flash" your order repeatedly in an attempt to frustrate a MM into filling your order just to get rid of you.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 3:05:10 PM

Might have a "flasher" in the URYQX at $1.60

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 3:02:57 PM

Just need to make sure you can produce what you're hedging if the crop and the hedge move against you.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 3:02:09 PM

CNBC quoting farmer regarding crop prices and inputs.

So true. Very important to have a grasp of heding.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 2:57:02 PM

Not much response to poll results in cross rates either.

Euro/pound 0.7809 -0.34% ... even with benchmark time.

Eur/yen 162.20 +0.40% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 2:52:44 PM

XLF $27.50 -0.07% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 2:50:30 PM

GLD $84.48 +0.58% ... ~$844.80 spot.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 2:49:33 PM

CFC $5.83 -3.63% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 2:49:09 PM

XBD.X 181.55 -0.17% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 2:48:55 PM

BKX.X 85.97 -0.55% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 2:48:39 PM

BIX.X 255.68 -0.87% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 2:37:42 PM

JBHT $34.49 -1.42% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 2:37:26 PM

TRAN 5,294 -0.93% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 2:37:00 PM

YRC Worldwide (YRCW) $18.79 +3.01% ... takes a peek above yesterday's high.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 2:35:34 PM

CFC Credit Default Swaps At 240 BPs Vs 165 BPs Thursday

Keene Little : 5/2/2008 2:35:00 PM

There's a real struggle to hold the DOW and SPX at the flat line. The techs led the parade to the upside and now NDX is looking like one of the weaker indexes today and that has me thinking more downside this afternoon. But there may be some strong players who want to keep at least the DOW closing no worse than the flat line today, especially above 13K is they can.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 2:34:57 PM

Countrywide (CFC) $5.85 -3.30% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 2:34:19 PM

Countrywide Credit Default Swaps Soar As S&P Cuts to "Junk" status

Keene Little : 5/2/2008 2:20:26 PM

From Todd Harrison at Minyanville:

The Fed just announced an increase in the amount of TAF and that it will now accept "AAA" rated mortgage back securities as well.

This indicates that 1) there must be further and bigger problems in the banking system than thought and 2) banks have increasingly less and less good collateral to give in exchange for capital from the Fed.

The banking system is not functioning. There's only one bank...the taxpayers.

We can debate the ramifications of these actions until we're blue in the face but the simple fact is that they're there, they're caged and they're again being proactive. I have little doubt there are further skeletons in the attics of their life. The question remains when the bones will again rattle the collective consciousness.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 2:20:02 PM

Eur/$ 1.5413 -0.41% ...

Jane Fox : 5/2/2008 2:19:22 PM

So far the overnight lows have mostly help up as support. The Russell 2000 futures is the only market to sustain the break below the ON lows. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 2:19:15 PM

Pound/$ 1.9735 -0.06%

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 2:18:05 PM

BBC Live!- UK Final Poll Results Show Labour Suffered Record Defeat

Jane Fox : 5/2/2008 2:14:00 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Federal Reserve is expected to approve on Friday a proposal that would restrict various billing practices of credit card companies, including double-cycle billing and unreasonable 'late' charges.

The proposals, aimed to protect credit card users, would prohibit practices such as:

treating a payment as late unless consumers have been provided with a reasonable amount of time to make payment.

increasing the annual percentage rate on an outstanding balance unless certain exceptions apply.

double-cycle billing, in which institutions compute finance charges based on outstanding balances in billing cycles preceding the most recent billing cycle.

assessing a fee for paying an overdraft unless they provide a consumer with the right to opt out of payment of overdrafts; a reasonable opportunity to exercise the opt-out; and the consumer does not opt out.

The Fed is joined by the Office of Thrift Supervision and National Credit Union Administration in issuing the rules. The Fed's proposal would apply to banks, the OTS proposal would apply to savings associations, and NCUA's to federal credit unions.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 2:13:08 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 1:47:47 PM

Then went with a QCB-CI from 03/07 to 3/12.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 1:46:11 PM

On 03/07/08 we were holding a put. Covered it a bit too soon.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 1:44:17 PM

Looking at BOOM's 5-minute interval chart ... then scrolling back to 03/07/08 time period.

10-minute, 15-minute, 30-minute and 60-minute too.

SIMILARITY, or DIVERGENCE?

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 1:35:51 PM

That bearish resistance trend may be correct. Didn't think so at first. QChart's does show MAD IPO'd around $30 back in Mar'94.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 1:34:40 PM

DJ 11:19:41 AM EDT - Chile Madeco 1Q Net Profit CLP2.28B Vs CLP7.09B

Chilean copper products manufacturer Madeco SA (MAD) posted a net profit of 2.28 billion Chilean pesos ($5.0 million) in the first quarter of the year, down from CLP7.09 billion in the same period last year, according to the company's quarterly filing late Wednesday with the SVS securities regulator. Sales totaled CLP172.45 billion, up from CLP164.70 billion in the first quarter of 2007. Operating profit was CLP9.43 billion, down from CLP11.59 billion in the first quarter of last year, according to the filing.

MAD $11.96 -0.08% Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 1:30:00 PM

Oil Futures: Crude Tops $116/Bbl On Brighter Econ Picture; Iraq Tensions

DJ- Crude oil futures are surging on promising U.S. economic indicators, regaining much of the ground lost after three days of declines. Light, sweet crude for June delivery recently traded $3.27, or 2.9%, higher at $115.79 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange traded $3.60 higher at $114.10. Nymex crude had earlier hit an intraday high of $116.18 a barrel. Futures are now up more than $5 from a two-week low of $110.30 hit Thursday, temporarily pushing aside talk of a severe downward correction. The rapid move higher also comes in the face of further strengthening in the dollar, which had been seen as responsible for oil's losses earlier in the week. Instead, oil prices rose Friday as U.S payroll data showed a smaller decline in employment than expected in April. The data came after a report released Thursday found consumer spending growing faster than analysts forecasted. A stronger U.S. economy would indicate growing demand from the world's largest consumer of oil, though few were willing to bet on a full recovery based solely on the April payroll data. "(Oil) has kind of got a mind of its own," said Matt Zeman, head of trading at LaSalle Futures Group in Chicago. "People are buying today based on the demand outlook...I don't think the actual supply-demand situation justifies where we're at." Zeman sees sluggish U.S. demand eventually sending oil prices significantly lower. Others expect further increases in oil prices even with the U.S. economy struggling. "This morning's price action should show that there is no overarching reason to think that oil has turned the corner and a full-blown reversal is underway," wrote John Kilduff, vice-president for energy risk management at MF Global. "Demand that may be contracting in the U.S. is more than being offset by demand from China, India, and the Middle East." Turkish airstrikes in northern Iraq overnight helped set the upward tone for the day, providing a new potential threat to oil supplies as Nigerian production rose following the conclusion of a strike by oil workers. Front-month June reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, recently traded 7.37 cents, or 2.6%, higher at $2.9519 a gallon. June heating oil traded 8.52 cents, or 2.7%, higher at $3.2029 a gallon.

Keene Little : 5/2/2008 1:26:10 PM

After a strong up day yesterday the Trannies have given back a bunch of the gains. It also gapped higher today but has since dropped a little more than half way back into the body of yesterday's candle. This pattern is called the dark cloud cover and is another reversal pattern. It could easily change by the end of the day but so far we're getting a bunch of sell signals from the chart patterns. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 1:21:51 PM

CVX (update) DJ- Chevron Corp. (CVX) said Friday its 2008 capital budget will remain at $22.9 billion and that it plans to spend about $2 billion in share buybacks during the second quarter. "At this point we confirm that our capital expenditures for 2008 are still at the budgeted amount, which is just shy of $23 billion," said Steve Crowe, Chevron's vice president and chief financial officer, who was addressing analysts in a conference call. "You can expect a buyback pace comfortable to what you've seen in the first quarter." Chevron spent $2 billion in the first three months of the year. While all the oil majors have been raising their capital budgets in recent years, the most dramatic mover has been Chevron. The increase, company officials note, reflects that Chevron has hit the spending phase of a multiyear campaign to build capacity. Chevron now has about 30 projects of $1 billion or more under development, whereas five years ago it had fewer than 10 that size. In 2008, Chevron expects major new production to come on line from the Gulf of Mexico, Nigeria and Kazakhstan. Chevron reported Friday a 9.6% rise in first-quarter net income compared with the same period a year ago. The company's shares were recently up 0.7% at $95.63.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 1:19:36 PM

Informative to have an idea what the big guns are doing as far as expenditures. Any changes, or no changes.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 1:18:12 PM

Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH) $194.21 +1.27% ... at 12:18, OIH was about $195.64. Not much reaction.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 1:16:25 PM

CVX's CapEx looks to be unchanged from prior guidance.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 1:15:13 PM

12:18 PM EDT Chevron Confirms '08 CapEx Near $23B, $2B Share Buybacks In 2Q

Jane Fox : 5/2/2008 1:11:18 PM

The S&P futures (ES) is also now breaking its overnight lows. HMMMM

Jane Fox : 5/2/2008 1:10:25 PM

VIx to new daily highs and ES follows to new daily lows.

Keene Little : 5/2/2008 1:07:12 PM

On the DOW's daily chart I've been using the wave count that calls the January low the bottom of a 3-wave decline and then the A-B-C sideways/up correction since then. Another A-B-C move down (below the January low and into the summer) would basically give us what's called a double zigzag count--two a-b-c moves separated by an x-wave. Today's candle is not looking so good for the bulls right now. It's still early in the day but right now it's a gravestone doji and price is back below the top of its rising wedge and 200-dma. Link

Keene Little : 5/2/2008 12:40:58 PM

A look at the updated NDX 120-min chart shows the bearish signal here with price gapping above the top of its rising wedge and now in the red and back inside the wedge pattern: Link . That's a sell signal and the fact that it has failed (so far) at the Fib projections of 1994-1999 is significant. But the bears can't breathe easy yet. The pullback could be just a pullback and we'll get another push higher (pink). It takes a break below 1913 to confirm the high is in. Daily chart update: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 12:25:07 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

James Brown : 5/2/2008 12:06:44 PM

Casino operator Wynn Resorts (WYNN) is seeing a lot of volatility. Shares gapped lower and hit $100.05 before rebounding sharply to hit an intraday high of $112.43. Shares are currently flat at $108.00ish.

The company reported earnings last night that missed estimates by 1 cent. Yet at least two analyst firms have come out today and raised their price targets on WYNN (targets $138 and $143).

A move over $113.00 might qualify as a breakout above its bearish trendline of lower highs on the daily chart. The P&F chart is already bullish with a $145 target.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 12:05:34 PM

TRIN 1.09 ... darts to session high.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 12:05:03 PM

RUT.X 729.89 +0.01% ... either side of its WKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 12:04:22 PM

Should note too, along with EWJ, that all US majors (ex-RUT.X) did see trade at their WKLY R2 today.

James Brown : 5/2/2008 11:59:56 AM

Ouch! MicroStrategy (MSTR) is down 16% after reporting earnings and missing the estimates by 22 cents. Shares of MSTR are testing support near $75.00a and its 50-dma.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2008 11:59:13 AM

Unfortunately the equity markets are not quite as bullish as the Crude market. Vix is hovering around daily highs and that means the bears are have the ball. The AD volume is still strong, albeit under +1000, so the bears do not have field position. This of course means we have a choppy market. Like what is new heh.

Need some excitement trading ? try CL. I'm not sure my heart will be able to handle this market.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 11:58:31 AM

Have a QCharts al_rt set at $20.25 in the underlying.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 11:57:32 AM

BARE's WKLY S2 $20.74.

BARE undercut it momentarily

Keene Little : 5/2/2008 11:56:58 AM

On this SPX daily chart I'm showing the Fib retracements for the decline from October to the January low and the importance of the 50% level at 1423.07 (today's high so far is 1422.72): Link . This is for those who are trying to learn more about EW counts (especially the difficult corrective counts)--I've been carrying a pink wave count on this chart for many months and it calls the decline into January as a 3-wave move (A-B-C which creates wave W) and then a 3-wave correction into April so far (another A-B-C which creates wave X).

This wave count sets up another 3-wave decline (another A-B-C move down to create wave Y) that would likely match the October-January decline. There are a couple of reasons I've been sticking with this wave count and one is because the move down from the February 1st high into March is a tough call as to whether it's an ending diagonal 5th wave or just a 3-wave pullback for wave B. Hence the importance of the 50% retracement level at 1423.

If today's high holds and especially if the today's candle becomes a bearish reversal candle, such as a shooting star, then it could be a very important high. It's early to make that call today but that's the setup here and we'll see how it looks at the end of the day.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 11:55:53 AM

Dang-it ... will try an monitor more closely ... URY-QX did trade $2.40.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 11:46:37 AM

The pivot levels should put things in a "relative" range.

As noted in a recent market wrap, we can't necessarily equate a SPECIFIC DXY to a major equity index. The pivot levels help as it relates to RELATIVE LEVEL.

James Brown : 5/2/2008 11:45:52 AM

Honeywell (HON) has challenged long-term resistance near $62.00 and is pulling back....chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 11:44:36 AM

Get the feeling more and more traders starting to pick up on the importance of currency / equity relationships.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2008 11:41:41 AM

Hopefully some of you have gotten on board with the Crude trade - it is going crazy and now back to $116/bl.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 11:41:07 AM

$/yen's intra-day high has been 105.69.

That looks about right.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 11:39:35 AM

$/yen's WKLY Pivot Levels were/are ... 101.83, 103.12, Piv= 103.97, 105.26, 106.11.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 11:35:38 AM

$/yen 105.27 +0.80% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 11:35:12 AM

Forex Currency Live! Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 11:32:49 AM

Let's see if there's a tie ... EWJ at its WKLY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 11:31:25 AM

iShares Japan (EWJ) $13.36 -0.29% ... now sitting just on top of its 200-day SMA after managing a close above yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 11:30:42 AM

Great observation James (11:25:01) ...

James Brown : 5/2/2008 11:28:54 AM

For comparison here is a chart of the FXE Euro ETF: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 11:28:05 AM

10-year up 10.8 bp at 3.857%

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 11:27:33 AM

Those range from 2016-17

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 11:26:37 AM

Fed Sells Par Value of $2.5 Bln

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 11:26:02 AM

Brazil's Central Bank Buys Dollars At BRL 1.649

James Brown : 5/2/2008 11:25:01 AM

The Japanese Yen is breaking down today. The FXY Yen ETF just broke support near $95.00 and is trading at its 100-dma. Chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 11:22:57 AM

Microsoft "Leaning Toward Hostile" ... Source: Silicon Alley Insider Link

Jane Fox : 5/2/2008 11:20:47 AM

Testing a new daytrading strategy on the Crude market, I decided to use the big contract CL instead of the e-mini QM because there is a lot more liquidity in CL.

I also have the new Tradestation simulator so I can test the strategy like I was really trading and believe it or not the emotions are almost the same. I just missed a trade as I was typing this message and yes I am giving myself 20 lashes with a wet noodle.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 11:19:27 AM

NASDAQ-100 Heatmap Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 11:18:31 AM

DJ (earlier)- ING TO BUY CITISTREET FOR $900M

Financial-services company agrees to buy CitiStreet from Citigroup and State Street for $900 million, in a deal that will make ING the third-largest defined contribution business in the U.S. based on assets under management.

ING $38.70 -0.18% Link ...
C $26.78 +3.07% Link

STT $75.97 +0.94% Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 11:14:11 AM

Could be a lot at stake depending on this fall's U.S. Presidential outcome.

Keene Little : 5/2/2008 11:12:58 AM

GOOG closed its Jan 21st gap by tagging 600.25 (this morning's high was 602.32) and my recommended stop on a short play at 605 was not hit. I still like a short play on GOOG, especially since it has collapsed back down into the red. The stop can now be placed just above today's high since the pattern would look more bullish with another move higher.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2008 11:11:27 AM

Crude is rallying back to $115.00/bl. I am testing a daytrading strategy with Crude (CL) and I now have realtime data. It is a mover for sure.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 11:11:22 AM

DJ (earlier)- IRAQ TALKS WITH OIL MAJORS, DEALS SEEN JUNE

Talks between the Iraqi Oil Ministry and senior executives from the world's largest oil companies are progressing and deals to develop the country's prized oil fields are expected to be signed in June, people close to the ministry say.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 11:09:32 AM

INVESTools (SWIM) $7.73 -38.06% Link ... #7 most active.

Keene Little : 5/2/2008 11:08:01 AM

The most bearish thing I see today is the inability for NDX to hold the morning's gains after tagging the very important level just under 2000.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 11:07:47 AM

Utilities HOLDRs (UTH) $134.41 +0.93% ... retraces 61.8% of 12/11/07 all-time high to recent 01/23/08 low.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 11:05:52 AM

Bare Escentuals (BARE) $21.28 -10.43% ... retraces 80.9% of 1/22/08 relative low to recent 02/28/08 relative high.

Keene Little : 5/2/2008 11:05:44 AM

The top of the rising wedge for the DOW (the trend line along the highs since April 7th) is near 13040 so the bulls would look to see that resistance level hold as support now.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 11:04:14 AM

DJ (earlier)- BROWN LOOKS SET FOR LOSSES IN UK

Prime Minister Gordon Brown's Labour Party appears headed to sharp losses after voters in England and Wales braved bursts of heavy rain yesterday to vote in local elections viewed as an important report card on the government.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 11:03:08 AM

DJ (earlier)- ALUMINUM GIANTS RUSAL, RIO TINTO TRADE BLOWS

A row has broken out between the two mining giants vying for dominance of the aluminum sector with Russia's United Co. Rusal accusing rival Rio Tinto of making misleading comments about its business.

RTP $475.93 +2.57% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 10:59:39 AM

CHEVRON 1Q NET RISES 9.6% ON SURGING OIL PRICES

Oil major's 1Q net income climbs to $5.17 billion, or $2.48 a share, while revenue rises to $65.95 billion from $48.23 billion a year ago. Total upstream income soars 76% to $5.13 billion, while total downstream income plummets 84% to $252 million.

CVX $94.94 (unch) Link ... #2 weighted in INDU/DIA/YM

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 10:57:30 AM

HOPES HIGH FOR BUFFETT SPENDING SPREE

Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on more than $40 billion in cash since 2004 as billionaire investor Warren Buffett struggles to find attractive investments. Now some shareholders are hoping Buffett has the crisis he's been waiting for so patiently.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 10:56:52 AM

DJ (earlier)- FED BOOSTS 28-DAY FUNDS FOR BANKS TO $75B

Amid continuing pressure in the credit markets, the Federal Reserve boosts the size of its term auction facility to $75 billion from $50 billion, beginning with the auction May 5, and expands currency swaps with the European Central Bank to $50 billion and the Swiss National Bank to $12 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 10:50:50 AM

Table Of Data On Factory Orders (Q1) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 10:46:18 AM

10:00 AM EDT - March Durable Goods Revised To +0.1% From -0.3%

Keene Little : 5/2/2008 10:42:33 AM

So far we've got only a pullback from the high but it's potentially important because of the multiple targets that have been hit (which could have finished the rally from March). The important levels now are yesterday afternoon's lows since a drop below those would be a signal that the top is in.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 10:44:11 AM

10:00 AM EDT - US Factory Orders +1.4% In Mar; Consensus +0.3%
March factor orders, ex-transportation +2.2%
March factory orders, ex-defense +1.4%
February factory orders revised to -0.9% from -1.3%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 10:35:09 AM

I forgot to retrieve both the SPX and RUT NH and NL figures on 4/18/08, so not certain of those figures.

However, either side of that date, SPX NH's were running 21, 21, April 18, then 19, 18.

RUT's NH were running 51, 38, April 18, then 37, 31.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2008 10:34:44 AM

VIX just made a new daily high - this is not what the bulls wanted. Of course S&P futures followed suit and made a new daily low.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 10:30:10 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/2/2008 10:18:20 AM

We have a pretty nice looking AD volume trajectory going today so I would be careful with any trades that FADE. Trin at 0.69 is bullish supporting the AD Volume. The bulls need the VIX on board now and once it makes new daily lows all our ducks in a row. Link

Keene Little : 5/2/2008 10:03:52 AM

The 50% retracement of SPX's decline from October is at 1416.54 if using the March low and at 1423.07 if using the January low. This morning it is pushing up towards the upper number so watch how price behaves around that level.

Keene Little : 5/2/2008 9:52:11 AM

I mentioned yesterday and with last night's NDX chart that there is a Fib target at 1994-1999. This morning's high is so far 1996 and price is pulling back. If that marks the high for the day it will be an important signal. It's still early obviously but take a gap n crap today as a strong sell signal for a longer term move back down.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2008 9:46:54 AM

AD line is a bullish +1298

Jane Fox : 5/2/2008 9:45:54 AM

I do believe yesterday was a good place to go long Crude and today is a good day as well. Below yesterday's low is the obvious place to put your stop. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 9:35:50 AM

VIX.X alert! 18.03 -4.50% ... undercuts 12/21/07 relative low.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2008 9:28:54 AM

Linda emailed me last night and asked me to let you all know she would not be in today for she has some family business she needs to attend to.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2008 9:27:44 AM

Getting an alert here on the DXY at 73.50 to review 04/01/08 MM @ 01:30:06 AM Link

Keene Little : 5/2/2008 9:20:55 AM

With the huge jump in equity futures following the jobs data it's looking like the DOW will jump over resistance at its 200-dma (13052). If the bulls can build on this morning's gap up (vs. letting it turn into a gap n crap) SPX might even be able to make it up to its 200-dma at 1432.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2008 8:59:25 AM

The DOW closed above the venerable 13000 yesterday and above resistance. The DOW will probably rally today but some time next week return to the resistance turned support zone for a retest. This return will be the ultimate test and it if passes we can say a short term bottom has been made. Link

Jane Fox : 5/2/2008 8:52:35 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Microsoft Corp. is leaning toward a hostile bid for Yahoo Inc., which has rejected the unsolicited takeover offer made in January, and is likely to make an announcement Friday, according to a media report.

But the situation was fluid Thursday night and Microsoft could change tack and walk away from the Yahoo bid or raise its offer, The Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition, citing unnamed people familiar with the situation.

Microsoft declined to comment, the Journal said.

Microsoft originally offered $31 a share. Yahoo said the offer undervalued the Internet portal, and major shareholders have signaled they are looking for a share price between $35 and $37.

Microsoft is willing to offer as much as $33 a share, the Journal reported, citing unnamed people with knowledge of the situation.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2008 8:47:27 AM

SPX very nicely closed above resistance at 1400 and it is clear sailing until the next level of resistance at 1525. Clear sailing ? ya right!!! Link

Jane Fox : 5/2/2008 8:44:50 AM

I guess you could say the markets really liked the Payroll data out at 8:30. All previous day highs have been breached and new overnight highs are being made as I type. Link

Jane Fox : 5/2/2008 8:39:47 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve along with the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank announced a fresh expansion of their liquidity measures. The Federal Reserve announced an increase in the amounts auctioned to eligible depository institutions under its biweekly Term Auction Facility from $50 billion to $75 billion, beginning with the auction on May 5. This increase will bring the amounts outstanding under the TAF to $150 billion. The Federal Open Market Committee also has authorized further increases in its existing temporary reciprocal currency arrangements with the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank. These arrangements will now provide dollars in amounts of up to $50 billion and $12 billion to the ECB and the SNB, respectively, representing increases of $20 billion and $6 billion.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2008 8:39:20 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Job losses decelerated in April suggesting that the economic downturn may be short and shallow rather than long and severe.

Nonfarm payrolls fell by 20,000 in April, a much smaller decline than the average 80,000 jobs lost per month in the first quarter of the year. The decline was much less than expected.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected job losses of 78,000.

The jobless rate inched down to 5.0% from 5.1% in March. Economists had been expected the jobless rate to tick higher to 5.2%.

The fact that the labor market did not continue to deteriorate in April may bolster the case for the Federal Reserve to pause from its aggressive easing campaign. But there will be another job report before the next Fed meeting at the end of June.

The construction and manufacturing sectors continued to shed jobs in April, but less cyclical sectors like education offset these declines

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