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Keene Little : 5/14/2008 1:06:21 AM

I posted the same pivot table twice. Here's the 2nd one: Link

Keene Little : 5/14/2008 1:07:03 AM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

With the NDX flashing warning signs at me for a potential high I will be watching it carefully for clues. The leg up from last Friday looks complete and that might have finished the rally from March. Today's candle is a dragonfly doji which is a more bearish version of the hanging man doji so a down day on Wednesday would confirm a potentially important reversal. Link

Therefore any serious decline from here should be taken seriously. But if we see a choppy sideways/down pullback then I see the possibility for another push higher (pink). The 62% retracement of the October-March decline is at 2021 and the top of a parallel up-channel from March is closer to 2040. Any push above 2050 would be bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 10:51:22 PM

A quick check of Dorsey/Wright's OTC 30-week Bullish % (30OTC) inched up 0.90% to 37.54% (36 on chart) and remains bullish. Current measure is best since early December'07.

The very broad NASDAQ Composite ($COMPQ) 2,495.12 +0.26% Link ... closes above its 150-day SMA for the first time since falling below to start the New Year on 01/02/08.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 10:48:17 PM

A quick check of Dorsey/Wright's NYSE 30-week Bullish % (30NYSE) has X getting another square today at 50% (50.17 actual), which tells us that 50% of the stocks listed on the big board have closed above their 150-day, or 30-week SMA. This is the highest measure since mid-to-late October'07.

The very broad NYSE Composite ($NYA) 9410.46 -0.07% Link continues to digest its recent advance at 50% conventional and 150-day SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 10:35:15 PM

The broadest of broad Wilshire 5000 Index (DWC) 14,206.54 +0.10% Link ... inched back higher today after yesterday's kiss of conventional 38.2%, which had been major resistance since early February. The still trending lower 150-day SMA at 14,243 providing resistance. Technicals bullish on closes above 14,000.

OI Technical Staff : 5/13/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 9:53:20 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 4:32:34 PM

Earlier today, AMAT announced that Sunfilm AG awarded the company a contract for a second Applied SunFab production line.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 4:28:41 PM

AMAT's new orders for energy and environmental solutions building. Dollar amount not that bid on a per/order though.

Quarter vs. Yr Ago Quarter new orders 257 vs. 63 (+307%). Dollar amount of Net Sales just $85 vs. $43 (+97%).

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 4:21:59 PM

Applied Materials' (AMAT) Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 4:14:35 PM

Electronic Arts (ERTS) $54.57 +0.55% ... up a bone on headline numbers in extended at $55.82.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 4:12:30 PM

Whole Foods (WFMI) $33.65 -0.29% ... slips to $32.26 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 4:07:03 PM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $19.86 +0.25% ... gets a pop to $20.15 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 4:04:55 PM

Many of today's corporate bond offerings look to have been well received by fixed income investors.

The $6 billion three-part Philip Morris deal saw a reported $18 billion in orders. The risk premium on all three parts were 177bp over Treasurys, which was at the low end of the price range.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 3:57:51 PM

President Bush repeating threat to veto farm bill.

Keene Little : 5/13/2008 3:48:49 PM

Mother MER is leading us lower to new lows as we head into the close.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 3:36:05 PM

From what I've read today, most global economists see little "negative" impact from China's 7.9-magnitude earthquake.

Roth Capital Partners' Donald Straszheim noted that the Sichuan province produces between 3% and 4% of all of China's manufactured exports.

Jane Fox : 5/13/2008 3:35:50 PM

Tomorrow's economic reports include:

8:30a.m. Apr Consumer Price Index. Expected: +0.3%. Previous: +0.3%.

8:30a.m. Apr CPI, Ex-Food & Energy. Expected: +0.2%. Previous: +0.2%.

Keene Little : 5/13/2008 3:34:58 PM

The rally attempt into the high near 3:00 PM has failed and the potential is for a deeper pullback. The pattern of the NDX has me wondering though if we're not seeing a more important high here. Marginal new highs (above last week's) in NDX and RUT have not been confirmed by the blue chips.

The pattern after today's rally leg could be satisfactorily counted as complete which means the rally from March could be considered complete. I think it would be a good time to tighten up your stops if you're long. I was thinking a pullback and then another run higher into tomorrow or Thursday but I'm starting to wonder about that possibility. At best we could see one more minor push to a new high for NDX and RUT.

Jane Fox : 5/13/2008 3:33:22 PM

Here are your overnight charts. Only the NDX futures (NQ) is trading above the market ER (the Russell futures) are trying to get back above but not been too successful. The DOW futures (YM) is hardly trading above its overnight low so certainly the weaker market here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 3:27:30 PM

QQQQ $49.20 ... session high $49.33 so far.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 3:26:56 PM

SPY $140.40

IWM $73.40

DIA $128.40

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 3:26:52 PM

SPY $140.40

IWM $73.40

DIA $128.40

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 3:26:51 PM

SPY $140.40

IWM $73.40

DIA $128.40

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 3:14:01 PM

Eur/$ 1.5475 -0.50% ... still stubborn above 1.530.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 3:13:17 PM

Dollar impressive against the yen today, trading above its WKLY R1. Cash out of Treasuries and $/yen strength at 104.87 +1.09% should find equities firmer to their close.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 3:04:24 PM

Bond market closes. Treasuries suffered price losses today with yields moving higher. The 13-week finished higher by 3.5 bp at 1.785%, the 5-year finished up a healthy 18.9 bp at 3.169%, the 10-year up 13.4 bp at 3.909% and the 30-year up 9.7 bp at 4.619%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 2:54:54 PM

Yahoo shares up on reports that Carl Icahn was mulling a proxy fight in an effort to push the company back into merger talks with MSFT.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 2:53:13 PM

Corn and wheat lower today.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 2:52:11 PM

Not much change in comments. Notable was "hopes futures markets right about rate hike forecasts" and "surprised by persistence of food and energy"

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 2:49:13 PM

Fed's Yellen making comments ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 2:45:26 PM

Ms. Whitney also says she thinks Citigroup (C) (see change in most active) will have to cut dividend again.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 2:43:29 PM

Oppenheimer analyst Whitney slashing outlook estimates for MER, LEH, MS and GS

Keene Little : 5/13/2008 2:41:27 PM

If SPX turns back down we could see it drop back to its uptrend line from March which has risen to about 1394 now. That would set up a good place to try the long side. It's hard to trust the upside right here and I can't recommend buying it. But I'm not sure about another pullback either hence my staying on the sidelines until I see a better setup. It still takes a break below 1390 for a heads up that something bearish could be starting. 60-min chart update: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 2:41:01 PM

Most Actives ... AIG $38.90 +1.35%, EDS $24.37 +1.16%, QQQQ $49.08 -0.02%, XLF $26.05 -0.95%, MSFT $29.66 -0.73%, C $23.11 -2.24%, HPQ $44.33 -5.33%, YHOO $26.12 +3.40%, WM $9.97 -2.73%, SPY $140.38 -0.05%

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 2:33:41 PM

Notable with the PHF and HYG technical observation, is the iShares Lehman 20-year (TLT) 91.42 -1.01% ... with its 150-day SMA still trending higher, but at $92.90.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 2:28:29 PM

Rebalancing of the "Beetle's Balanced" showing up now.

Will also note the more "evenly matched" YTD for the DIA, SPY, QQQQ and IWM.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 2:21:36 PM

iShares iBoxx High Yield (HYG) $99.78 -0.09% ... did "pop" above 150-day SMA on 05/01/08. Looks "confortable" here with 150-day SMA at $99.12.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 2:19:07 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $8.34 +0.24% ... 150-day SMA at $8.26, was closed above yesterday. First time since falling below on 07/27/07 in firm fashion.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 2:17:12 PM

iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) $73.38 +0.42% ... taking a look above their trending lower 150-day SMA.

Keene Little : 5/13/2008 2:08:03 PM

The RUT is leading the way higher today and that keeps a bullish undertone to the market. Last week the lows kept bouncing off the broken downtrend line from October (using the Log scale whereas the arithmetic scale shows price didn't even make it down to the trend line). I opened up the rising wedge since the last time I showed this chart (last week) and have the top of the wedge now near 742.50. Link

It did a throw-under below the wedge (the uptrend line from March) last week so it would be typical to see a throw-over above the top of the wedge. The 200-dma at 749 makes for an interesting upside target. But first it needs to get above last week's high near 736 and not leave a hanging man doji today at resistance (hard to see but that's what today's candle is so far).

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 2:04:02 PM

NASDAQ a/d improved from the 10:00 mark of 999:1,501, with advancers now numbering 1,344 whith decliners at 1,485.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 2:03:01 PM

Looking "squared up" at the big board at the 2:00 mark. Advancers now even with decliners at 1,543:1,520.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 1:58:35 PM

LEISure Bullish % (BPLEIS) from Dorsey/Wright at this Link

I can "click" on Component Tickers and History for greater detail.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 1:52:43 PM

Sector Bell Curve (04/01/08 to 05/12/08 Comparison) at this Link

See also today's 11:59:22, where the above 05/12/08 would be a sector breakdown of U.S. All Stocks.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 1:39:32 PM

Anheuser Busch (BUD) $52.41 +1.55% Link ... while I prefer pure Rocky Mountain over Mississippi mudwater, I must say that I enjoyed one of the new Bud Light with lime this Mother's Day. Was very, very refreshing and may be a BIG HIT this summer. Maybe later this fall when election returns come in too.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 1:37:19 PM

Great Wolf Resorts (WOLF) $7.67 +1.99% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 1:36:33 PM

Six Flags (SIX) $2.00 +2.04% Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 1:35:32 PM

Cedar Fair Lp (FUN) $24.04 +0.41% Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 1:35:01 PM

Disney (DIS) $34.26 -1.46% Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 1:29:01 PM

Results of this year's Rand McNally's Great American Road Trip Survey have been released.

Of the 2,030 US adults polled, 75% say they are at least somewhat likely to take a road trip this summer, and 29% say they are very likely to hit the road. Those that intend to take a trip say their trip will last an average of about five (5) days.

Influencing decisions had 25% of respondents saying they would be more likely to take a road trip if there is an increase in the cost of other transportation alternatives, such as airfare (24%). In addition, alirline concerns, such as increases in flight cancellations (15%) and delays (13%), would make about 28% more likely to take a road trip.

Destination favorites have 25% selecting a beach, or lake getaway, amusement parks 10%, mountain getaways 8% and national/state parks 8%.

Political trends were also polled. Among those adults who want to take a road trip with a presidential candidate, 61% select a Democrat. 33% would like to ride with Barack Obama, while 28% would like to motor with Hillary Clinton. 24% would enjoy a trip with John McCain, and 8% selected Ron Paul.

Jane Fox : 5/13/2008 1:23:41 PM

I believe the next surge could take SPX up to the upper trendline at around1460. of course the darn thing needs to break resistance at 1420 first. Link

Keene Little : 5/13/2008 1:20:04 PM

With a test of this morning's low the DOW would also be tagging its uptrend line from March so that's certainly potential support. But if SPX gets two equal legs down in today's decline that would take it down to 1393, only a point above the 1392 level I've been eyeing as a good spot for support and the launch of another rally leg into Wednesday/Thursday.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 1:15:34 PM

Most Actives ... AIG $38.70 +0.86%, XLF $26.03 -1.06%, EDS $24.43 +1.41%, MSFT $29.77 -0.36%, HPQ $43.52 -7.06%, SPY $140.05 -0.27%, INTC $23.67 +0.12%, YHOO $24.88 -1.50%, BAC $36.76 -1.73%, CSCO $25.84 (unch)

Keene Little : 5/13/2008 1:14:27 PM

Not a whole lot has happened in the past two hours. I'm just waiting to see if we get another leg down or back up and I could argue equally strongly for either direction. That means there's no good setup as far as I can see at the moment.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 12:47:06 PM

Really want to look for inventory levels for the builders. Didn't see it in TOL's prelim press release. Other than "there is an abundance of inventory for customers to choose from."

Keene Little : 5/13/2008 12:38:14 PM

USO, nicknamed EBF (Energizer Bunny Fund), continues to defy gravity and holds at its trend line along the highs from February 2007. It is overbought but so what. We know it can stay overbought and irrational far longer than it seems possible. This is especially true in commodities which seem to have a high emotional content. Link

The daily candles at resistance make it look (to me) like topping action so I would not want to be long oil but obviously it's risky shorting it. If you try, just keep those stops tight. At this point gold is so far away from confirming the new highs in oil that to say there is a non-confirmation would a gross understatement.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 12:37:24 PM

Toll Bros. Preliminary Q2 Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 12:35:00 PM

Shares of Toll Bros. (TOL) $22.92 -1.92% probe their slowly trending higher 50-day SMA after the homebuilder said preliminary Q2 revenues will fall 30% from a year ago to $817.9 million. The builder said higher incentives and a change in its product mix saw its average contracted price of a new home falling to a six-year (6) low of $534,000/home.

The company said its Q2 backlog of homes ordered, but not yet delivered was cut in half to $2.08 billion.

While looking for land deals, the builder said it hasn't yet seen the "high-end communities at bargain prices" it likes.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 12:02:15 PM

Some news this morning out of India. A series of bomb blasts in the northwestern Indian city of Jaipur has reportedly killed 35 people. Police say at least five (5) bombs tore through crowded markets in the city. "It's a terror attack," said police director general Amarjot Singh Gill.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 11:59:22 AM

World Bullish % (05/12/08 Close) Link

Updated from 05/01/08 Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 11:57:05 AM

India starting to look attractive down here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 11:46:08 AM

Some chatter that sudden gain in crude oil is threats out of Iran for supply cut.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 11:43:32 AM

Permian Basin Trust (PBT) $24.76 +2.39% ... edges aove its 21-day SMA. 61.8% retracement of recent decline at $25.10. 50% at $24.28.

Keene Little : 5/13/2008 11:43:31 AM

The DOW is still acting weaker today with new lows while the others are struggling just above their lows. But the DOW is now approaching its uptrend line form March, currently near 12775, so watch for potential support.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 11:41:59 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $102.35 +2.24% ... that's a new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 11:40:33 AM

Eur/$ 1.5504 -0.31% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 11:40:10 AM

Then see 10:57:12 and understand importance.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 11:39:18 AM

So, perhaps we currency traders/followers now better understand the GPB's recent action.

GBP/$ 1.945 -0.63% ... despite yesterday's PPI.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 11:37:35 AM

A shocking surprise on the monetary front took place today.

The UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling unveiled a fiscal stimulus package, raising the level at which incomes are taxed to cushion the impact of rising oil and food prices.

Darling said he was raising by GBP600 the threshold at which incomes are taxed, taling the level to GBP6,035.

Darling said the measure will cost GBP2.7 billion, which will be paid for by higher borrowing in the current fiscal year, ending April 2009. The tax change will take effect in September.

The UK government also said it will lower the threshold at which incomes are taxed at the highest rate so that the measure doesn't benefit higher earners.

The measure comes in response to strong opposition within the governing Labour party to the abolition of the low GBP0.10 tax rate which took effect just last month.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 11:29:35 AM

Wal-Mart (WMT) ... Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 11:27:38 AM

Shares of Dow component and retailing giant Wal-Mart (WMT) $56.79 -2.13% continue to see profit taking after this morning's earnings release. The retailer posted a net profit of $3.02 billion, or $0.76 a share, which was a penny better than Wall Street estimates. Weakness likely attributed to the company giving a cautious outlook for the current quarter, saying earnings may miss expectations and that there will likely be little, if any, U.S. same-store-sales growth.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 11:19:30 AM

After 6 days of consecutive gains, oil prices edged lower yesterday, but gain again at this hour.

The International Energy Agency cut this year's forecast for world oil demand growth for the second consecutive month, citing increasing evidence that high oil prices are having a marked impact. The IEA warned that further forecast cuts could be forthcoming.

US Oil Fund (USO) $101.03 +0.91% ... off session low of $99.98.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 11:14:22 AM

Most Actives ... MSFT $29.66 -0.73%, HPQ $43.96 -6.14%, SPY $139.98 -0.34%, AIG $38.52 +0.39%, AAPL $190.11 +1.03%, QQQQ $48.84 -0.50%, CCU $33.01 +0.39%, CSCO $25.73 -0.42%, AMAT $19.64 -0.90%, DELL $19.67 +1.54%

Keene Little : 5/13/2008 11:14:16 AM

One caution about buying the dip here is that we could be due a larger correction. I'm looking at the rally off Friday's low as a 5-wave move and that's why I'm thinking a pullback and will be followed by a continuation higher this week. So far this morning the dip is too short in time to correct the leg up from Friday. It means we could get some more choppy price action before the next rally leg. A bounce back up towards this morning's highs before dropping back down again to give us a larger A-B-C pullback is a distinct possibility so stay cautious and watch out for a potential choppy today.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 11:09:31 AM

Bank of America's President of Global-Consumer and Small-Business Banking commenting on trends at the bank.

Mr. McGee saying he's still "not happy with rising credit losses" at the bank and this remains a focus as the bank tried to navigate a tough economic environment.

Mr. McGee noted that California and Florida are driving losses within the segment, as in the first quarter, the states represented a combined 52% of delinquencies and 62% of charge-offs.

Purchasing trends among credit users remains pronounced for necessities (food, clothing, fuel).

Keene Little : 5/13/2008 11:07:02 AM

Two equal legs down from this morning's high in SPX is at 1396, right in between a 38% and 50% retracement of its rally off Friday's low. Watch to see if support around here holds since the pullback correction this morning could end quickly and reverse higher again. This is of course assuming we're due another leg up in this week's rally.

Keene Little : 5/13/2008 10:57:47 AM

We've got the blue chips leading lower again with the DOW out ahead as far as Fib retracements of Monday's rally. Right now the DOW has just passed the 50% retracement (12810) and could hit 62% at 12788 fairly quickly. Because SPX got a quick pop higher at today's open, it has only retraced 38% so far (1397.43).

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 10:57:12 AM

EU's finance minister Junker made some comments earlier this morning ahead of a meeting of finance ministers from the 15 nations that use the euro, which he chairs.

Mr. Junker said "financial markets didn't correctly understand the message from the G7" and that he had the impression that "more financial markets have a better understanding."

Mr. Junker's comments indicate to many that finance ministers from the Euro Group welcome the U.S. dollar's recent appreciation against the euro, and would be happy if it were to continue.

While Mr. Junker noted inflation a concern, he thought oil and food prices were up to 40% overvalued.

Jane Fox : 5/13/2008 10:54:03 AM

The Crude bears put up a gallant fight at $124.00 but the bulls have won for how. Crude back to 124.70.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 10:48:47 AM

While stocks turn mixed-to-lower, Treasuries find selling across the major maturities, with yields higher.

The 13-week Yield continues its march towards the current fed funds target of 2.0% and is up 4.5 bp to 1.795%. The 5-year yield is up 11.8 bp at 3.098%, the benchmark 10-year yield is up 7.9 bp at 3.854%, while the longer-dated 30-year yield has risen 5.3 bp to 4.575%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 10:44:28 AM

March business inventories were released at 10:00 AM EDT and were lower than economists had expected. The Commerce Department said inventories rose a fractional 0.1% to a seasonally adjusted $1.465 trillion. February's inventories were revised lower from up 0.6% to up 0.5%.

While inventories crept higher in March, sales rose 1.0% to $1.154 trillion, reversing February's 1.0% decline.

With sales rising in March, the closely watched inventory-to-sales ratio fell to 1.27 from February's 1.28.

Jane Fox : 5/13/2008 10:42:59 AM

Internals are now turning bullish. Ad line and ratio are climbing, VIX is falling and TRin is falling.

Jane Fox : 5/13/2008 10:42:11 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. retail sales fell for the third time in the past five months, with April undermined by a big decline in auto sales, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday.

Retail sales fell 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis, a reversal after a 0.2% gain in March. Sales over the past three months were down 0.4% compared with the prior three months.

And for the past year, sales were up 2%.

The figures are not adjusted for price changes.

April's sales came in slightly stronger than the 0.3% drop expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch

Jane Fox : 5/13/2008 10:40:25 AM

TRIN is in the other camp though at 0.88, a tad bullish.

Jane Fox : 5/13/2008 10:39:45 AM

The only hint the internals are giving me today is an AD line and ratio below 0. Other than that nadda. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/13/2008 10:39:26 AM

Stocks putting in a mixed session to start the day. Economic data due out this morning (pre-market) showed April core retail sales rising 0.5 m/m, which was stronger than the 0.2% consensus and up from an upwardly revised 0.4% gain. While core retail sales rose, retail sales overall were down 0.2%, which matched economists' forecast.

Import prices were released at 08:30 AM EDT and were up 1.8%, a modest relief from the prior month's 2.9% rise.

Keene Little : 5/13/2008 10:38:42 AM

After briefly leading the downside this morning, techs then got the bigger bounce back up while the blue chips languish near the lows of the morning. I'm not seeing anything here to set up a trade and suspect that will be true for at leastt the rest of the morning. Don't force trades here--we'll get a better setup once we see how today's correction plays out.

Keene Little : 5/13/2008 10:27:37 AM

Gold has dropped sharply this morning after chopping its way higher off the May 2nd low and tagging its downtrend line from the March high. I've lowered my stop on my gold short to the last high near 891 and I am looking for a move down to 793.90 or much lower near 693 (Fib projection and apex of a larger sideways triangle consolidation in 2007 meet there). Link

Gold bulls, who likely believe in some very sound fundamental reasons why gold should rally to $2000 instead of drop, will think of me as a nut. What many gold bulls fail to incorporate into their analysis is the severe impact of the credit crunch. People (institutions) will be forced to sell assets to cover their losses and that means winners will get sold. That will be commodities, all commodities. Besides, I just trade the charts and right now gold is in a downtrend so that's the correct way to trade it until it breaks the downtrend. Hence my stop at 891.

Jane Fox : 5/13/2008 10:18:29 AM

Crude once again trying to break $124 and the bulls have being able to hold off the bears.

Jane Fox : 5/13/2008 10:16:43 AM

Just to give you an update on my progress testing my new CL strategy. I have my business plan and trading plan in place. Well actually have just updated my business plan to include this strategy.

I am currently trading it real time with a simulator and have back tested days in January, February, March and, of course, May. So far it seems to be a viable strategy but has wild swings. Yesterday the strategy did phenomenally but like I expected it is not doing well today.

I have noticed though when you have a rough day, if you trade it long enough you can always get back to profit because CL will always give you at least one trend and usually 2 or more. You just have to have an account and the intestinal fortitude to hang in there.

Jane Fox : 5/13/2008 10:21:00 AM

I have been talking about testing a new strategy daytrading Crude (CL) so needless to say I have been watching this market very closely. It has tried to break $124.00 many times but the bears are just not able to it.

Keene Little : 5/13/2008 9:49:06 AM

Also, techs are down but semiconductors are up. It's going to have traders looking both ways for traffic and staying cautious.

Keene Little : 5/13/2008 9:46:53 AM

The Trannies are up this morning and banks are down so we could be facing a bit of chop (as part of a pullback correction for the broader averages).

James Brown : 5/13/2008 9:46:36 AM

Unfortunately, I will not be available in the monitor today. Have fun without me.

Jane Fox : 5/13/2008 9:39:06 AM

VIX is hardly moving so not telling us much.

Jane Fox : 5/13/2008 9:38:40 AM

AD line is a neutral -248.

Jane Fox : 5/13/2008 9:38:10 AM

Here are the overnight charts. They were bullish before the open but not now. Link

Keene Little : 5/13/2008 9:37:36 AM

If SPX pulls back today to the 1392 area (62% retracement), the equivalent level for the DOW would be 12788. That's certainly not a given but keep an eye on techs, which are pulling back a little more this morning, since they seem to be leading the parade lately.

Keene Little : 5/13/2008 9:23:39 AM

If I read this morning's reports correctly it looks like inflation numbers are spiking higher, not just climbing higher, while retail sales numbers are down. If not for inflation the retail sales numbers might actually be negative. And then Bernanke's comments about the "moribund" financial sector should be negative news. If I had not looked at the charts before reading this morning's reports I would have guessed futures down. But instead they spiked up. Go figure.

Jane Fox : 5/13/2008 9:21:37 AM

Rescuers dug through schools and homes turned into rubble by China's worst earthquake in three decades to reach victims trapped beneath slabs of concrete, as the death toll from the disaster rose to nearly 12,000.

Jane Fox : 5/13/2008 8:48:17 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Despite some improvements, financial markets remain severely stressed, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday.

The U.S. central bank's innovative efforts to provide cash to financial markets have helped, Bernanke said.

Pressures have lessened for brokerage firms, conditions in the Treasury repurchasing market have improved and liquidity has returned to several other markets, he said.

"These are welcome signs, or course, but at this stage conditions in financial markets are still far from normal," Bernanke said in a speech prepared for a conference on financial markets sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

Bernanke said that a number of markets based on securitization of assets "remain moribund" and that risks spreads remain high, including the Libor rate.

Bernanke also said there was no silver bullet to ending the financial crisis.

"Ultimately, market participants themselves must address the fundamental sources of financial strains -- through deleveraging, raising new capital, and improving risk management -- and this process is likely to take some time," he said.

Jane Fox : 5/13/2008 8:45:10 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. retail sales fell for the third time in the past five months in April, led by a big decline in auto sales, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Retail sales fell 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis after a 0.2% gain in March. Sales were up 2% in the past year. Sales over the past three months were down 0.4% compared with the prior three months. The figures are not adjusted for price changes. Sales were slightly stronger than the 0.3% drop expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

Jane Fox : 5/13/2008 8:47:18 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Prices that U.S. residents paid for imported goods rose 1.8% in April, the Labor Department reported Tuesday, as costs for petroleum and other products gained. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for a gain of 1.8%.

The price for imported petroleum rose 4.4%. The price for non-petroleum products rose 1.1% for the second consecutive month -- matching the largest one-month gain for the index since these prices were first published monthly in December 1988.

The price for non-fuel imports rose 1.0% -- matching the prior month's gain -- the largest one-month increase since the index was first published in December 2001.

For the 12 months ended April, prices for imports gained 15.4%. The rise in import prices for March was revised to 2.9% from a prior estimate of 2.8%.

There has been concern that rising import prices and the long upward trend in food and energy commodities are keeping upward pressure on core inflation.

Linda Piazza : 5/13/2008 8:11:10 AM

I will be away from the office today.

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