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Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 11:18:13 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Wilshire 5000 (DWC) 14,423.75 +0.13% ... does close above its 200-day SMA (14,401.65) for first time since falling below on 12/27/08.

OI Technical Staff : 5/16/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 4:55:33 PM

Xcel Energy (XEL) seeks OK for 10% Colorado price increase. Cites rising natural gas prices. Proposal calls for customers to pay 93.09c/therm

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 4:53:20 PM

Ecuador's oil minister calls for OPEC to raise output.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 4:52:05 PM

UAW Local in Michigan OKs deal to end its monthlong strike against GM.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 4:44:12 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/16/2008 4:43:57 PM

I just noticed--could they have pegged the Q's any closer to the $50 strike (50.0099) for expiration?

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 4:33:13 PM

Treasury's Paulson set to travel to Middle East 5/30-06/02; promoting open investment.

Keene Little : 5/16/2008 4:13:47 PM

Looking for clues where the money is, the banks (BIX) don't look so good to me. My bet is more downside next week. Follow the money. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 4:06:07 PM

The OEX's 7-minute 9-ema did hold as support and the OEX, true to its pattern from the last few hours, did bounce from it. Next resistance is now 652.72, but I think we start over Monday morning and see what happens. The longer-term charts such as the 30-minute one are actually showing some weakening with each bounce on a Keltner basis. RSI is showing bearish divergences, too.

Keene Little : 5/16/2008 4:04:51 PM

The RUT has remained stuck below 745 and its January gap close, leaving a hanging man doji today. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 4:03:47 PM

Have a great weekend, everyone! If you had a tough expiration week, set aside some time to study what went wrong and maybe listen to a webinar or two that will prepare you to do it differently the next time. Then don't devote any more time than that assigned time to worrying about. Consider it a learning experience. If you had a great option expiration week, set aside a little time to study what worked and maybe listen to a webinar or two that allows you to refine your technique, but don't devote any more time than that, either.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 4:00:51 PM

Not that it matters this late in the day, but the OEX's 7-minute 9-ema may or may not be holding as support for the first time in hours. That sets up a potential downside target of 650.59-650.86, but the OEX would have to hurry to reach that by the end of the day!

Keene Little : 5/16/2008 4:00:32 PM

NDX has the same dragonfly doji near resistance. Will it be able to make a quick jump up and close the gap on Monday (just under 2052)? Could happen. It looks like it's going to close inside the gap today. Link

Keene Little : 5/16/2008 3:56:42 PM

The only thing bothering me, again, is that the short play setup here is too obvious. If too many think, and trade, the short side in preparation for a rejection at the 200-day moving averages, we're setting up for a gap above them. But betting that way is more like gambling and I'm not interested. A couple of puts to take home for the weekend and then see what sets up on Monday.

James Brown : 5/16/2008 3:55:26 PM

The OIH has not hit our target yet in our OI call play but it would be really tempting to skim some profits right here.

Keene Little : 5/16/2008 3:54:07 PM

Same with the DOW--there's bullish potential to 13250 but that's not the way I'd want to play it here. Its 200-dma is now at 13012. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 3:51:53 PM

Last week's SPX weekly candle completed a reversal signal, a nearly classic one. Didn't matter. This week, the SPX reversed again from the bottom of its rising trendline off the March low and eclipsed last week's candle, reversing the reversal signal. As I warned last week, we'd seen that happen the week of 4/07 and 4/14, too, when weekly candles reversed the signal produced by the one the week before.

Keene Little : 5/16/2008 3:51:04 PM

It's a little hard to see but the daily SPX chart shows the hanging man (actually a more bearish dragonfly) doji at resistance. Will it matter for Monday? Who knows but I sure would not want to be long over the weekend. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 3:48:51 PM

The OEX approached but did not quite hit the 7-minute top target at 652.64. It could still try for it again, but it might now be time for its retreat to potential support at 651.64 now. (Started down as I typed.) If it's following its pattern over the last several hours, with that one exception, it will find support there on 7-minute closes, so if it doesn't, something has changed. OEX at 651.85 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 3:39:34 PM

Okay, so now if the OEX is repeating the same pattern from the afternoon, it will reach up either toward 652.02 or maybe even 652.45 and find resistance there, and then drop back toward its rising 9-ema again. The 9-ema is at 651.47 as I type but will rise a little. If the OEX is not following the same pattern, we should see differences--sustained values above 652.02 or else a turning back from there and push down through the 9-ema.

Keene Little : 5/16/2008 3:38:18 PM

The uptrend line from May 9th, shown on this SPX 30-min chart is an important short term trend line and will tell us when the leg up from last Friday is finished, currently near 1420 now: Link . It's looking like we could be seeing the final stages of the rally and if it can push higher to the top of what appears to be a rising wedge, with bearish divergence, near 1430 then we'll have a nice short play setting up on Monday. Either at the top of the wedge (maybe a small throw-over finish) or a breakdown--I'll wait for one of them before trying a short play. The upside is risky from here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 3:36:47 PM

Petroleo Brasiliero (PBR) $70.44 +3.17% ... still in the process of running economic viability study on a planned 500,000 bbl/day refinery to be built in Brazil. Initial estimate to build the refinery has been established at between $8-$10 billion.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 3:35:05 PM

Potential resistance on the 15-minute chart holds. Although the OEX pushed above the 7-minute level's resistance, it's now right back in that channel, headed toward the 7-minute 9-ema, now at 651.40 that it should have tested earlier if it was following the same pattern it had followed all afternoon. We just had a moment's aberration, possibly a trap.

If the OEX hits 651.40 or so (did as I typed), watch for potential support on 7-minute closes, although anything goes at this point. I had just been about to post a warning that if big money wanted the OEX to settle nearer 650, then to watch out below the least few minutes of trading when the downturn began and I ended up writing a different post.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 3:33:50 PM

Ford Motor (F) $8.09 -0.97% ... shuffled to #8 most active.

Keene Little : 5/16/2008 3:30:56 PM

Both the DOW and SPX have now tagged the levels for two equal legs up off this morning's low so be careful about a reversal.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 3:26:48 PM

The OEX is no longer following the pattern of the last few hours. During those hours, it would hit resistance that's now at 625.05 (7-minute closes) and then drop back to the rising 9-ema (now at 651.32) and then it would repeat the whole thing. Now it's attempting to break out above that resistance, heading into stronger resistance at 652.70 (15-minute closes) and 652.81 (30-minute ones).

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 3:24:06 PM

The USDJPY has been bouncing over the last hours but only after dropping all the way to 103.51 and hitting or almost hitting the 30-sma. It's currently 104.16.

A couple of weeks ago the USDJPY broke below the rising trendline off the March low. After falling hard for a few days, it rose to retest that trendline and that's what it did earlier this week. For the last two days, though, it's been dropping away from that test. U.S. equity bulls don't want to see it fall below the 5/12 low of 102.56 and particularly not below about 102.49, a FIB level that it oscillated around for a while before it finally broke through on the way higher. For now, although this kiss-goodbye behavior doesn't seem bullish, it's not a confirmed bearish sign, either, because the USDJPY has so far just dropped back to test its daily 30-sma. It might be important to watch it next week, though.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2008 3:21:47 PM

Dateline WSJ - RIYADH, Saudi Arabia -- Saudi Arabian leaders made clear Friday they see no reason to increase oil production until their customers demand it, apparently rebuffing President Bush amid soaring U.S. gasoline prices.

Meanwhile, the Energy Department said it won't enter into new contracts for the previously planned fill of the nation's crude stockpile under a royalty program. The action follows a sharp rebuke from Congress earlier this week, with both chambers overwhelmingly voting to force the Bush Administration to stop filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 3:18:21 PM

The OEX just hit the resistance (7-minute) at 651.01 or almost did. If it now moves true to form over the last few hours, it will soon, perhaps after a bit more testing, drive down to or toward 651.10 next support on 7-minute closes. After that, I don't know as it depends on where the powers that be want this to settle and how many people have to close positions at the close.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 3:17:52 PM

The 2-year note maturing 4/30/10 finished up 2.2bp at 2.45%

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 3:15:42 PM

Bond market closed at 03:00 PM EDT.

13-week yield finished up 1.0 bp at 1.800 as it continues to inch toward the current fed funds target of 2.00%.

The 5-year yield was all over the map today and by the close finished little-changed, but yield up 0.5 bp at 3.116%.

The benchmark 10-year yield ended up 0.9bp at 3.852%, while the loner-dated 30-year yield rose 0.6bp to 4.582%.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 3:11:02 PM

If this gain gets going too much, the tenor will become more bullish and gains might feed on themselves as surprised bears give up and start to cover, but in this market environment, I'd be really careful from here to 652.75 (on 30-minute closes) or so because potential resistance extends up to there.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 3:08:08 PM

Brazil's Real closes at nine-year (9) high of BRL1.641

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 3:07:00 PM

For the OEX, there's potential resistance at 651.56 and then again at 652.02, and potential support at 650.75, all on 7-minute closes. Switching back to the 15-minute chart, those levels are 651.70 and then 652.55 for potential resistance on 15-minute closes and 650.61 for potential support on 15-minute closes. The 30-minute levels are nearby, so you know the zone that defines the "just chopping around" levels.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 3:03:29 PM

Options traders with May expirations at the ready.

At the 03:00 tick the NYSE a/d line has pushed to slightly positive breadth with advancers outnumbering decliners by a 1,567:1,518 margin.

NASDAQ a/d improves to best levels of the day, but still negative breadth at 1,128:1,704.

James Brown : 5/16/2008 2:57:59 PM

OI call play Joy Global (JOYG) is breaking out to new highs over $80.00. The stock has already exceeded our target at $79.50. Our second target is the $84.00 level. Shares hit $82.08 today.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 2:56:06 PM

The OEX hit potential resistance that had been driven higher to 651.32. It hasn't given up testing it yet but was pushed back from that level. I'm watching the 7-minute chart now for short-term guidance since this chopping back and forth just flattens out the longer-term ones. Stronger resistance on the 7-minute chart is at 651.97 and that's corresponding to resistance seen on other charts, too. So, since I'm still not sure that this is anything other than some chopping around (although the SPX did move above its afternoon highs, which is at least mild support for the bullish case), I'd watch all these potential resistance levels.

James Brown : 5/16/2008 2:55:46 PM

Exit alert! Foster Wheeler (FWLT) has hit our second target at $79.50 today. The stock is up dramatically in the last few sessions and FWLT is now testing resistance near $80.00.

Keene Little : 5/16/2008 2:54:20 PM

In case we're goint to just chop up and down, watch for where the bounce off this morning's low will have two equal legs up. For the DOW and SPX that will be at 12990 and 1425.31, essentially a retest of yesterday's high for SPX. Slightly higher is its 200-dma at 1427.58.

It would be just like this market to tuck up against that very obvious resistance level and leave it there for the weekend, leaving everyone guessing what will happen on Monday. So far today's candle is a hanging man doji near that resistance, this while daily stochastics (fast setting) is back up into overbought.

James Brown : 5/16/2008 2:54:10 PM

OI call play Cytec Ind. (CYT) is up another 1.7% to $64.12. Our first target is $64.50. Readers may want to take some profits this afternoon even if CYT doesn't reach our initial target. There is potential resistance near $65.00.

James Brown : 5/16/2008 2:49:44 PM

Solar-energy stock First Solar (FSLR) has maintained its recent gains following the breakout over $300. Shares are consolidating in a short-term pennant pattern and I suspect it will continue to move higher. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $424 target.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 2:47:10 PM

The OEX has potential support on 15-minute clsoes at 650.38; on 30-minute, at 650.19. Both moving averages climb slightly, giving a slight boost to OEX prices, but the OEX is still not moving that far from the line, so all we can say is that there's a slight neutral-to-bullish cast to the afternoon, but not a strong enough one yet to prevent the OEX coming back and testing that support or even piercing it from time to time.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 2:47:02 PM

Treasuries reverse earlier price gains fully. Only the longer-dated 30-year yield off a fraction, down 0.1 bp at 4.475%.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 2:42:35 PM

The OEX has potential resistance near 651.10.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 2:36:39 PM

SWC $15.10 +10.94% ... giving the $15 call OI a run for their money. Not heavy, but heaviest at 1,449.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 2:33:09 PM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $49.77 -0.38%, MSFT $29.97 -1.57%, INTC $24.92 -0.20%, CSCO $26.43 -0.26%, SPY $142.25 -0.19%, C $23.13 -2.52%, GE $32.01 -1.11%, IWM $73.59 +0.05%, FNSR $1.53 +15.03%, PFE $19.98 -0.44%

James Brown : 5/16/2008 2:31:35 PM

Oil service stock NOV is up 3% and breaking out from what appears to be a little bull flag pattern. Shares are nearing potential resistance at $80.00. The bull flag pattern suggests an $86-87 target. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting a $105 target.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 2:29:42 PM

No new afternoon high for either the A/D line or the OEX. So far, we can't say anything different than we've been able to say for the last couple of hours. The OEX is zigzagging around a flattening 30-minute 9-ema, now at 650.04. It's finding support now on that moving average on 30-minute closes, but it's piercing it nearly every 30-minute period. That chart suggests that a move up is a bit stronger a possibility than a move down but it suggests that in a tentative whisper and not in a confident shout. So far, I'm not taking this as anything more than pin-them-to-the-numbers action.

James Brown : 5/16/2008 2:26:15 PM

Troubled GPS device maker Garmin (GRMN) is up more than 5% today. The stock is nearing resistance at $50.00 and its 50-dma. Has the stock turned around or is this another opportunity for shorts?

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 2:21:05 PM

The A/D line looks as if it's attempting to push above the afternoon's (not day's) high of -197. It's not there yet, though, but it might be good to watch to see if it breaks to a new afternoon high and then can maintain it, as a guide to whether the OEX is doing anything other than just moving a little to this side of 650 and a little to that side of it. A/D action is still no guarantee, but you'd want all your ducks in a row when you're making trading decisions. The A/D line is now -230.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2008 2:20:21 PM

Here is McMillan's weekly commentary - Last week, we wrote that the bulls had to assert themselves. That they did. This has been a very strong week, and -- for now -- the danger to the bullish case has passed. $SPX twice tested the trend line, bottoming at 1384 and 1386 last Friday and Monday, respectively. That held, tentatively at first, and more strongly now that $SPX has risen above the 1420 level -- an area that had inhibited advances five separate times this month. Clearly, our observation last week that the trend line was the most important thing about the $SPX charge, was true. And that will continue to hold: as long as $SPX remains above the rising trend line (see Figure 1), the $SPX chart is bullish.

Equity-only put-call ratios have remained on buy signals since shortly after the March bottom. They will continue to be bullish as long as the ratios are declining. Both ratios are getting closer to the bottom of the chart now -- especially the weighted ratio. That means they're overbought, but that's not a sell signal. They won't turn bearish until they eventually curl over and begin to rise. chart is bullish.

Market breadth hasn't been the most reliable indicator in the last few weeks. In fact, breadth gave another false sell signal last week. So, once again, we are viewing breadth as merely a confirming and not a leading indicator. chart is bullish.

The volatility indices have continued to trend lower as the market has trended higher. Again, that is normal, and it will continue to be bullish as long as this downtrend in volatility continues. The 20-day moving average of $VIX is now down to about 19, so $VIX would have to rise above at least that level before any change in trend could be considered. More realistically, a close above 20 would be the requirement for a reversal of $VIX. chart is bullish.

In summary, all systems are bullish, and that is evident by the trends in these indicators: the rising bullish trend on the $SPX chart, and the (declining) bullish trends on $VIX and the equity-only put-call ratios. Moreover, breadth is overbought, and thus conducive to the bullish case as well. We see no danger to the uptrend until at least two of these reverse direction -- something that doesn't seem too likely at the moment.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 2:17:51 PM

Next resistance, if the OEX should keep heading that direction, is 650.84 on 15-minute closes, but a stronger resistance band then begins at about 651.80 and extends up to 652.40. That's showing up on both 15-minute and 30-minute charts. I can't guarantee that the OEX is headed that direction, however, and not just zigzagging around 650.

Keene Little : 5/16/2008 2:17:02 PM

With the multiple bounces off the uptrend lines from last Friday, May 9th, for both the DOW and SPX, traders are obviously attaching a level of importance to them. Therefore a break of them will be an important sign that the bulls are losing it. In the meantime the bulls maintain control. Those uptrend lines are currently near SPX 1418 and DOW 12915, and climbing.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 2:09:57 PM

At the 02:00 PM EDT tick, stocks continue to hover in negative territory as we near the end of May option expiration.

Breadth remains negative at the big board with modest improvement. The NYSE reporting 13 advancers for every 17 decliners.

NASDAQ advancers still under the 1,000 mark at 997, while decliners have built to 1,827.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 2:06:44 PM

Fantastic James! Your extra set of eyeballs fantastic!

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 2:04:57 PM

In my 11:47:12 post, I warned that we were moving into the typical "pin them to the numbers" time period for an opex Friday. About that time, the OEX was just below 650. As I type, it's 649.90. Typical opex Friday stuff, the reason that I warned subscribers to temper their expectations in case we got this kind of chop back and forth stuff. This doesn't mean it will continue the rest of the day, but that's certainly a possibility.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 2:02:55 PM

Stillwater Mining (SWC) $14.72 +8.15% ... retraces 19.1% of its recent 03/04/08 high to 05/09/08 low.

Keene Little : 5/16/2008 2:00:04 PM

I started up QCharts on another computer while I trouble-shoot my desktop (it's been acting a bit flaky the past couple of days). QCharts is running OK on that one. On my desktop I was watching QCharts search for a server but kept timing out, pick another one, time out, etc. So I'm not sure if it was my computer or QCharts. I pass along the following information for others to try in case they have difficulty (thanks to Scott for this):

When I'm having trouble with QCharts feeds I right click the Icon, click on properties, left click find target, then right click to delete temp files, continuum files (the one that looks like a ringed writtng tablet - don't delete the wrong one it could be bad) and mtk hours files. This seems to reset the files and it finds a server that works well. Problem is I sometimes have to do this twice a day. I agree with you on the service now that esignal has it. To make things worse you can't call and talk to anyone if you need help either. I doubt I'll stay with them much longer. Hope you find this helpful.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 1:56:39 PM

QCharts users can type in UGA /USO and create their own intra-day relative strength bar chart.

That is ... UGA"space bar"slashUSO

James Brown : 5/16/2008 1:54:27 PM

Jeff... there is also a new U.S.Heating Oil ETF (UHN).

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 1:54:16 PM

I'm back. While I've been gone, the OEX did rise toward 651, but it's dropping back again toward potential support. Nearest support on 15-minute closes is now 648.88-649.10, with the rising trendline off the 5/9 afternoon low now lower, at about 648.15. There's potential support at 647.46 on 15-minute closes and at 647.25-647.79 on 30-minute closes, so the support strengthens through this level. It's going to take a strong push through to break that support or else a lot more chopping back and forth to loosen it. So, barring that strong push lower, I would again tell bears to watch for bounce potential anywhere in the 647.25-648.85 level.

James Brown : 5/16/2008 1:53:10 PM

Readers might want to keep an eye on PCU, another mining stock. PCU has broken through its short-term trendline of resistance. Chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 1:53:36 PM

UGA $59.75 +1.84% ... It is about time we got an ETF here. Thanks for the note James!

USO $102.09 +1.87% ...

James Brown : 5/16/2008 1:47:21 PM

CNBC was talking about the miners... Freeport McMoran (FCX) has broken out over resistance near $120 today.

James Brown : 5/16/2008 1:42:41 PM

The US Gasoline ETF (UGA) is hitting new highs. This new ETF does have options available.

James Brown : 5/16/2008 1:39:00 PM

Jane has been following Gold. I noticed that the gold miners ETF the GDX is up 1.9% and breaking out over its 200-dma. chart: Link

James Brown : 5/16/2008 1:37:01 PM

Coal stocks continue to rally. KOL (an ETF) is up 2.5% to another new high.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 1:28:34 PM

Posco (PKX) Alert! $144.76 +0.59% ... (see James' 12:53:48)

Keene Little : 5/16/2008 1:24:10 PM

Good time to take a break and see if I have charts when I get back.

Keene Little : 5/16/2008 1:22:57 PM

So much for eSignal's more reliable servers. QCharts was doing really well until eSignal took over. Now they've taken away the Santa Clara servers and I can't find a good server. Charts are currently down. Wait, hints of coming back (maybe, nothing yet). I'm still not happy with eSignal's handling of QCharts. They should have just left them alone.

James Brown : 5/16/2008 1:19:30 PM

100-dma breakout -- Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) was crushed a few weeks ago as traders sold the news on its earnings report. The stock found support near its 200-dma but has traded sideways for the last four and a half weeks - until today. ISRG is breaking out over its 100-dma and the $300.00 mark. chart: Link

Keene Little : 5/16/2008 1:17:38 PM

CME continues to have me guessing which direction will be next. The choppy sideways/down pullback since early April looks like a bull flag correction before proceeding higher (shown in pink) and it points to an upside target near 600 if it can break above 525. A break of its downtrend line, confirmed with a push above 500, would be a bullish heads up. Daily chart: Link

But so far the 50-dma, currently at 485.11, continues to hold CME down and as long as that remains true we could see it turn down sharply and drop down to a Fib projection at 338.

James Brown : 5/16/2008 1:13:31 PM

Another steel stock, U.S.Steel (X) , is showing strength. UBS raised their price target on X to $200. Shares of X are up 1.4% to a new all-time high around $179. The stock looks overbought considering it was just $120 about eight weeks ago.

James Brown : 5/16/2008 1:08:43 PM

OI call play Nucor (NUE) was downgraded to "under perform" this morning but the stock is shrugging it off. Shares actually hit a new all-time high at $83.10 this morning. Our second, more aggressive target is the $84.00 mark.

James Brown : 5/16/2008 1:04:38 PM

Lululemon (LULU) broke through resistance a few days ago and the stock is just now inching above its 200-dma. A dip in the $34-35 zone might be a new bullish entry point. chart: Link

James Brown : 5/16/2008 1:00:22 PM

Here's another case of seller's remorse. The PremierInvestor newsletter closed the play on EXM when it hit our target at $50.00 on May 12th. The stock is trading near $55.75 today.

The drybulk shipping stocks have just been on fire the last few weeks. Just look at stocks like DRYS, DSX, FRO, etc.

Keene Little : 5/16/2008 1:00:11 PM

GOOG has not done a whole lot in the past two weeks as it consolidates near its May 2nd high. That could certainly be interpreted as bullish--consolidating just underneath its broken uptrend line from March 2005. A break above 605 should lead to a move at least up to about 650 to complete a 5-wave move up from March. But until that happens I continue to lean bearish GOOG and think it will start back down. Daily chart: Link

The weekly chart shows the uptrend line from March 2005 was the bottom of its parallel up-channel and what was support has turned into resistance and that's the way I'm considering it until proven otherwise: Link

James Brown : 5/16/2008 12:53:48 PM

Speaking of selling... I hope readers have taken some profits in POSCO (PKX). The stock blew right past our target near $140 yesterday. I'm surprised that there hasn't been any profit taking today. PKX is up another 75 cents to $144.65.

James Brown : 5/16/2008 12:50:44 PM

Ugh! The gain in Solar Fun (SOLF) makes me sick. The stock is up 15% right now around $21.25. Last night in the PremierInvestor newsletter I closed the play and suggested readers exit after a 24% gain. How's that for seller's remorse.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 12:50:24 PM

Excellent, excellent info from CNBC regarding SPACS.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 12:33:59 PM

Overstock.com (OSTK) $24.32 +11.55% Link ... retraces 50% of its 10/31/07 high to 01/22/08 low.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 12:14:08 PM

I'm going to be away from my desk between one and two hours. The OEX has a potential downside target of 647.11-647.50, with that also being potentially strong support on 15- and 30-minute closes. That also coincides with a rising trendline off the 5/9 low. Next support below that is now at 644.95 on 15-minute closes. The chart looks as if 647-647.50 will be tested, but we're not the only ones who can draw a trendline and you can bet that some bulls will begin to step in if it looks as if the OEX isn't quite going to get there before bouncing. So, if in bearish trades, protect profits beginning now while acknowledging the possibility that the OEX could drop to 647-647.50 or, if the bears gain control, even toward 645.

For right now, as I said a few minutes ago, I wouldn't be surprised to see the OEX chop around the 649-650 zone for 45 minutes (30 minutes of that left) or so before deciding on next direction. That next direction could be up toward 651 or down toward 647.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2008 12:07:48 PM

TRIN has stabilized at a bearish 1.35.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2008 12:06:09 PM

Here are the overnight charts. No market is trading within its ON range. Link

Keene Little : 5/16/2008 12:05:32 PM

The short term pattern for gold, looking at its leg up from this morning's 8:30 low, would look best with one more push higher to complete a 5-wave move up today. That might get it up to about 907. That's not a given but it's currently the upside risk for those who are joining me in my attempt to short gold again.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 12:05:27 PM

SPY $141.87 -0.46% ... now a penny below its MONTHLY R1, but is going to challenge my Friday prediction of a close below $141.25.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 12:03:57 PM

At the 12:00 PM EDT tick, breadth remains negative at both the big board and NASDAQ.

Decliners continue to outpace advancers by a 17:12 margin among the 1, 2, and 3-lettered variety, while 4 and 5 lettered stock symbols show decliners outnumbering advancers by a 2:1 margin.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 12:01:43 PM

Solarfun Power (SOLF) $21.14 +14.45% ... has retraced 38.2% of recent 01/03/08 high to 03/10/08 relative low. Probes bearish resistance trend.

Keene Little : 5/16/2008 12:00:50 PM

The US dollar has now dropped sharply this morning (and the euro is rallying) so I'm watching for potential support and resistance for both. The dollar could drop down to 72.40 where it will probably find support at its 50-dma and the bottom of its longer-term down-channel from 2006 (bold blue on the daily chart, 30-min delay): Link

The euro is rallying and will probably find resistance at its 50-dma at 1.5589 (only .0009 higher than its daily high so far). Slightly higher is the 50% retracement of the decline from April at 1.562. Daily chart of June contract: Link

If the euro rolls back over it will increase the likelihood that gold will reverse after today's rally, especially since it tagged its Fib target at 904.40.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 11:58:46 AM

I would not be surprised to see the OEX spend thirty to forty-five minutes chopping around the current level, near the 15- and 30-minute 9-ema's, before next direction is decided, if there is a next direction.

Tab Gilles : 5/16/2008 11:56:20 AM

Taking a look at technology, specifically two sub sectors.

$GHA Hardware PnF PO $420. Link

$GSOSoftware PnF PO $218 Link

$SOX Semi's PnF PO $448. Note testing 200-ma. Link

Jane Fox : 5/16/2008 11:49:26 AM

AD line has reversed and is now falling again and if you look at all internals together they are bearish. Also the TRIN is a bearish 1.30 and climbing. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 11:47:53 AM

I have to warn that we've now moved into that difficult period the Friday of opex week, the "pin them to the numbers" period. If that's successful, then we're just going to sit near these current prices into the close, jigging a little this way and zagging a little that way. It doesn't happen that way all the time, but it does often enough that you want to manage your expectations. I've been through lots of variations on opex Friday. They used to be great trading days. Then they were awful ones when setups just evaporated the moment you'd entered a trade, and lately they seem to be mixed.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2008 11:45:07 AM

The VIX and RVX are telling us the bears have the ball today. I see the AD line is bearish but not overly so at -572 and is climbing. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 11:44:55 AM

The OEX's 15-minute 9-ema is now 649.56; the 30-minute version is now 649.38. In other words, the OEX faces possibly significant resistance at those levels.

Keene Little : 5/16/2008 11:43:00 AM

SPX is also at its uptrend line from last Friday, currently near 1415. It makes for a good place for at least a larger bounce back up and not a bad place to try the long side (day trade only).

Keene Little : 5/16/2008 11:41:44 AM

The DOW is finding support, so far, at its uptrend line from last Friday's low, currently near 12900.

Robert Ogilvie : 5/16/2008 11:39:00 AM

I like to look the fixed income markets as well as equity, currency and commodities. I noticed that the iShares Lehman TIPS Bond Fund (TIP) is bouncing nicely as the equity markets appear to be selling off. The TIP has some heavy resistance at the 50 and 89 day SMAs. Link With Gold up 23.5 at 903.50 and the TIPs up it looks like the economic numbers, namely the Consumer Confidence, have initiated some added inflation fear. Or maybe its Crude popping up that is adding to the I fear.

Robert Ogilvie : 5/16/2008 11:26:28 AM

Index Settlement Prices: SPX 1425.70, DJX 130.06, NDX 2040.22, MNX 204.02.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 11:25:22 AM

So far, the OEX is attempting to steady near 648.50-648.66 but its attempts aren't completely convincing. A drop toward 647.03 potential support on 15-minute closes can't be ruled out. I said earlier that I thought the OEX might head down there, but I'm not at all sure that it will do so right now or even today, and, if it climbs up and maintains 15-minute closes above about 649.50, I'm not sure it will do so at all.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2008 11:15:03 AM

My goodness gracious Gold is up to 902.20.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 11:03:59 AM

VIX is 17.68, testing potential Keltner resistance up to 17.79 on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 11:02:46 AM

A/D line now -609, more closely approaching that potential support now at -786.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 10:59:48 AM

I think the OEX could eventually be heading toward the 647 level. However, targets have been set and erased with some frequency lately, and I think there could probably be an intervening bounce attempt from the 648.50-648.75 level that could send the OEX back toward 650.30 or maybe even up toward the 651.60-653.50 level in this crazy opex market environment. Therefore, it could be a jagged process down to the 647 level, even if it's eventually hit, and that jagged process might take a day or two to complete.

So, if you're in bearish trades, particularly May puts, know right now how much of your accrued profits you're willing to give up on a bounce attempt.

Keene Little : 5/16/2008 10:59:43 AM

This morning's pullback is now deep enough to tell us the leg up from yesterday morning is complete. That leg up also counts well as completing the rally from last Friday. Therefore the potential is for a top to the rally. If SPX now breaks below 1415 it will break its uptrend line from last Friday and help confirm the top is in. The next breakdown needed by the bears would be the uptrend line from March, currently near 1402.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 10:56:28 AM

The OEX is testing potential support on 30-minute closes at about 649.90. It's just below it as I type, and so risking a drop toward that 648.50-648.75 (now risen to 648.85) level I've been mentioning today.

And of course this is happening just after I post that the A/D line looks as if it's trying to steady and maybe attempt a bounce! I did that just to help out you bears, you know, by posting something so that the markets could move to prove me wrong!

Seriously, we haven't had a 30-minute close beneath that potential Keltner support, so factor in the possibility of a bounce at any time and particularly near 648.50-648.85 if that's hit.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 10:52:09 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: The A/D line still looks as if it's trying to steady, but it's still doing it below potential support now at -289. As long as it's below that, the possibility of a drop toward -775 remains, a drop that could occur at any time. For now, though, the setup looks as if the A/D line isn't ready to crater yet and might instead at least steady if not attempt a bounce. I'm not at all sure how that bounce will turn out, but if the A/D line bounces and brings the OEX higher with it, I'd be watchful of rollover potential beginning at about 651.60 and extending up to 653.40. There's a thick band of potential resistance lines there, with the 652.40 zone perhaps the strongest.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 10:49:56 AM

S&P 500 (SPX.X) conventional 10-point box chart Link

Note(s): In early April, the BPSPX achieved "bull confirmed" status at 42.00% bullish as the SPX was trading ~1,350. At last night's close, BPSPX has worked its way up to 58.15% (of 500 stock charts, 291 show "buy signal" and 209 still have a "sell signal" associated with chart). Heaviest OI at both call/put for this May expiration was 1,400.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 10:42:37 AM

Hey, Jane, congrats on that trading day yesterday. Mine wasn't so fun. I was experimenting (again) with a butterfly. These "flies" as devotees of one site call them have just given me fits lately, so I wondered if any readers have any great experiences with them. My trading goal this year is to experiment with different types of trades that vary the delta, theta and vega risks away from what the condors present. Although butterflies, of course, exhibit some of the same vega risks as condors, I do want to add them back to my repertoire when appropriate. I can't tell you how many times, though, that I get it right the day before option expiration with the body of the butterfly right on a level that gets hit (SPY 141 yesterday, for example) for a time, at least reinforcing my technical analysis skill and assuaging my confidence that much. However, it's hard for me to collect a profit anyway. I've been told by other traders that the flies basically have to land on that body right within hours of the time that the options expire before these commission intensive trades are very profitable. Is that your experience, if you've been trading them extensively? I've had the same problem with both ATM income-producing type butterflies and cheap speculative butterflies placed where I think markets might go. I did have a profit yesterday but I also had a profit limit that turned out to be just a little too high so that the thing turned around and hit my stop instead when the markets zoomed higher yesterday.

If you've got comments that might help others of our subscribers (and me) send them to our support email and put my name in the subject.

Keene Little : 5/16/2008 10:39:34 AM

Gold is now pressing up towards the 904.40 Fib projection so I'm watching for price to stall and try another short play.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 10:33:45 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: the A/D line has continued to make new lows. It's now testing potential support on the 30-minute chart at -265 and may close this 30-minute period close enough to it that we can say it's essentially holding. The A/D line is currently -327 and that's fairly close as the A/D line goes. However, the possibility exists now that it's drifting toward deeper potential support now at -779. My charts tell me that bears need to begin being careful here but don't yet tell me that a reversal from the day's weakness has yet begun. I'd watch the -779 level if it gets that deep, though, watching carefully for a bounce that gets too far.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2008 10:31:03 AM

Trading Crude yesterday was what I am now offically calling a "Yacht Day." Many days like that and I will be able to afford a Yacht :) (just kidding of course) But like one should expect today is much slower. Most of the move today was when I was still in bed so trading now is very slow.

Keene Little : 5/16/2008 10:30:11 AM

The DOW has dropped to its uptrend line from yesterday morning so it's time for the bulls to step back in. Otherwise the breakdown could be the signal that we've seen the top. Either that or we'll continue to stay trapped in this two steps forward, one back, and chop our way higher. For example, it takes a break below 12850 to break its uptrend line from March so there's lots of room for further whipsaw price action.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 10:29:09 AM

The OEX currently pauses near potential support on 30-minute (not 15-minute) closes at 649.85. It's possible that this support will again prompt another 15-minute close at or near the 15-minute 9-ema version, now at 650.46. If it doesn't, we're looking at a potential downside target near that 648.50-648.75 zone I've been mentioning. Right now, the OEX's two charts (15-minute and 30-minute) give about an equal weighting to that drop and to a climb back up toward 651.60 or maybe even a bit higher. I can't give you a weighting of which looks most likely because it's not there in the charts.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 10:28:51 AM

SPX Option Montage ... OI as of last night's close Link

Robert Ogilvie : 5/16/2008 10:27:19 AM

The Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) couldn't fill in the gap at 2040. It tried hard at the open but only got to 2035.81. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 10:26:35 AM

I wrote yesterday that I would not be doing the Wrap last night. I hope you all enjoyed reading Robert's Wrap, as I certainly did. I confess that, enjoyable as it was, I enjoyed even more having the extra time yesterday to research information on trades!

I'm going to gradually make another transition. Keene does a great job of covering the SPX, and we often, through different means, discover similar targets or potential resistance/support levels. Jeff occasionally discusses it, too, and Jane covers it along with ES futures. It's great for all of you to have that corroboration that some level is important to watch, but I know many of you watch and/or trade the OEX. So, I'm thinking about transitioning my comments on the Market Monitor toward the OEX. I may still be mentioning the SPX because it's a broader index that's important for us all to watch, but I may be focusing most of my "target here," "support there" comments on the OEX. It may take a while to break old habits, though, so have some patience with me.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2008 10:25:32 AM

The SPX barely closed above 1420 yesterday, which was bullish but it is certainly not adding to yesterday's rally. As I stated yesterday, I suspect the SPX will rally from here but it will be painful rally for both bulls and bears. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 10:23:17 AM

OEX Option Montage ... OI as of last night's close Link

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 10:21:55 AM

After dipping to 649.99 instead of the 649.90 level I thought it might touch, the OEX indeed bounced and then closed that last 15-minute period just a touch beneath its 15-minute 9-ema. Essentially, the support held on the 15-minute close and the OEX is now attempting a bounce from it with the OEX at 651.04 as I type. It might not get far because it's hitting potential resistance now at 651.55. So, whether that bounce will be successful or not, I don't know, but I would certainly, if bullish, have my profit-protecting plans in place for a test of 652.22-653.17 if it does bounce any higher than 651.55, which might itself be tough resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 10:16:32 AM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $49.72 -0.50%, MSFT $30.10 -1.14%, INTC $24.68 -1.16%, SPY $142.10 -0.30%, CNET $11.38 -0.26%, XLF $26.18 -1.20%, CSCO $26.33 -0.64%, QCOM $45.39 +0.84%, CMCSA $22.16 -1.68%, CPSL $5.69 +31.10%

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 10:13:08 AM

Watch for the possibility that the OEX could punch down toward 649.90 but then bounce and end the 15-minute period back above the 15-minute 9-ema, now at about 650.52. That would be the most bullish case, given the current action. However, the possibility remains that prices could just give way, too, as the OEX pushes down toward 648.40-648.75.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 10:12:35 AM

May "Max Pain" Theory (at last night's close)

DIA $130 ... $1 inc.
SPY $139 ... $1 inc.
QQQQ $47 ... $1 inc.
IWM $71 ... $1 inc.
SMH $30 ... $1 inc. either side of $30
XLF $26 ... $1 inc.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 10:08:38 AM

Unlike the OEX, the SPX has not quite touched its 15-minute 9-ema at 1420.06 yet. However, unless it bounces strongly before the close of this 15-minute period, closing it at or above 1421.87, it will have set a target there.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 10:07:53 AM

At the 10:00 AM tick, stocks were broadly lower with regional banks -2.24%, money center banks -1.96% and retail -1.82% notably weak.

NYSE breadth is modestly negative with decliners outnumbering advancers by 1,514:1,277.

NASDAQ breadth also negative with 985 advancers and 1,455 decliners.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 10:04:10 AM

The OEX still has a potential downside target set, and it's now 650.74. That's also been strong support on 15-minute closes through many hours of trading yesterday, so scalpers should be aware that unless the OEX falls straight through it, always a possibility, some bulls are going to attempt to buy it again. It may be time for the OEX to retreat all the way to the next support, now at 648.52-648.88, but there's nothing in the charts that promises that this is the time it will happen. Let's see how this current test goes.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 10:04:14 AM

Strong selling at the cash open had TRIN up to 1.95

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 10:02:00 AM

5-year treasury yield ($FVX.X) up 2.2 bp at 3.133%.

Keene Little : 5/16/2008 10:01:47 AM

The first sign of trouble for SPX would be a drop below 1418 which would be a break of its short-term uptrend line from yesterday's mid-day low and below the high near 3:15 PM yesterday (that would negate the potential for a small 5th wave up). Right now the choppy consolidation near the high should lead to another press higher.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 9:59:37 AM

Overnight, the USDJPY did confirm that H&S that I'd been mentioning yesterday. Then, after the Nikkei closed (when trading is thinner and so a bit more suspect), the USDJPY climbed back above that neckline at about 104.50 and headed up again. It looks, however, as if it could be forming another H&S with a neckline at about 104.65. If so, it still has to finish the head formation and then the right shoulder, so there could still be some back and forth on this currency pair, and, therefore, some back and forth on the equities, too.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2008 10:01:17 AM

University of Michigan Mid-May sentiment 59.5; April 62.6
Current index 71.7; April 77.0
Expectations 51.7; April 53.3
12-mo inflation forecast +5.2%; April 53.3
5-year Inflation forecast +3.3%; April +3.2%.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 9:57:14 AM

A/D line rising strongly again now, but there could be resistance now at about 186-190. It's at -46 as I type, with that support I mentioned earlier having kicked in now. We'll have to see if the bounce holds.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 9:55:47 AM

The OEX now has potential resistance extending up to 652.94 on 15-minute closes. Currently, it looks strong enough to hold the OEX back on 15-minute closes, but obviously not strong enough to keep the OEX from rising to test it again.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 9:50:32 AM

TRIN opened high and hit potentially strong Keltner resistance at 1.93, piercing it before turning around and heading lower. Potential support begins at about 1.28 and extends down to 1.10.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 9:49:17 AM

A/D line still dropping fast, but dropping even deeper into potential support. So far, it's short-term bearish but bears should remain aware of the potential support. I 'll let you know what I see.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 9:47:57 AM

The SPX, stronger on a Keltner basis than the OEX lately, is now dropping down to test its breakout benchmark. So far, it's bouncing from that benchmark, now at 1421.19 and hasn't yet approached the 15-minute 9-ema, now at 1419.91. Short-term bulls, however, want to see the SPX find support on 15-minute closes at that 15-minute 9-ema, continuing the pattern seen since yesterday afternoon. Otherwise, the SPX risks falling to 1414.50-1415.50.

Keene Little : 5/16/2008 9:47:52 AM

Banks (BIX) are getting hit hard this morning, down -1.9%. It's price pattern looks like a very clear bear flag consolidation since May 8th.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 9:45:48 AM

The OEX hit potential resistance at 652.82 on 15-minute closes this morning and headed down. The 15-minute 9-ema is now 650.43, and that's now a potential target for the OEX. However, the OEX bounced off this support on 15-minute closes each time it tested it all yesterday afternoon. Therefore, if you're a short-term scalping or day trader, you might remain aware of that potential support.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2008 9:45:38 AM

AD line a neutral to slightly bearish -163 but the VIX is making new daily highs supporting the bears.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 9:41:23 AM

A/D line back to potential support. It's not strong so far and not supporting the idea of further gains so far, but be aware of the potential support.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 9:40:34 AM

It's of course natural to assume that the SPX bulls are going to make a drive up toward the daily 200-sma, now at 1427.97, as it's also natural to assume that some sellers are going to be waiting there, and in fact may already be beginning to sell into this rally. We don't know yet whether the bulls or the bears are going to prevail.

Keene Little : 5/16/2008 9:38:57 AM

Gold's rally is not being joined by silver and it's not a result of the US dollar tanking (it's not). More reasons to distrust the rally in gold.

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 9:37:58 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: The A/D line is certainly not yet supporting the idea of strong upward momentum. It's only 430 as I type. It did, however, open near potential support at 280 on 15-minute closes and it's currently attempting to bounce from this support. Resistance may be strong, however, near 500 and then again near 680-700, so we're going to have to wait and see how it acts near that resistance before we make up our minds about whether it's supporting the idea of more gains or not.

Keene Little : 5/16/2008 9:36:30 AM

I got stopped out of my gold short at 891 and now I'm hoping to see it continue up to 904.40 where the bounce off the May 2nd low will be two equal legs up. The pattern of the 3-wave bounce suggests this is a counter-trend rally and therefore continue to look for shorting opportunities in the shiny metal. The upside is the risky side since it could reverse sharply at any time. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/16/2008 9:35:50 AM

The SPX is in breakout mode on its 15-minute chart, suggesting strong upward momentum late yesterday, which we knew anyway from observation. The breakout benchmark is now at 1421.06 with the 15-minute 9-ema rising to 1419.77. Equity bulls want the breakout maintained, showing that the upside momentum has not waned, so they want 15-minute closes above those two levels.

Keene Little : 5/16/2008 9:30:34 AM

A steady rise in equity futures during the overnight session, with only a minor pullback from the early morning high, has us starting in the green. There are plenty of warnings about waning momentum in the current rally but for now stick with the uptrend for now. Before thinking short I'm looking for either the upside targets met or a break down.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2008 9:26:18 AM

And I did not get long yesterday :(

Jane Fox : 5/16/2008 9:25:59 AM

Crude up to $127.82 now.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2008 9:23:07 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. home builders broke ground on 8.2% more homes in April, led by a 36% increase in multi-family units, the Commerce Department estimated Friday.

Housing starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.032 million, far more than the 954,000 estimated for March or the 939,000 that economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been anticipating for April.

It was the third increase in the past four months.

However, starts of single-family homes declined for the 12th straight month, falling 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 692,000, the lowest since January 1991.

The increase is certain to bolster the argument of those who see a bottom in the housing slump, a prerequisite for a return to a healthy banking system and economy. Others say that market suffers from a severe oversupply of homes and that the last thing the market needs is new construction.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2008 9:22:22 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures rallied to a fresh record high of $127.43 a barrel Friday, as bullish momentum returned to the market and traders rushed to buy energy futures.

Crude oil for June delivery was last up $3.20 at $127.32 a barrel in electronic trading. The $127.43 mark surpassed the previous peak of $126.98 a barrel hit on Tuesday. The June crude contract traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange expires May 20.

"Considering how sensitive the markets have been to the upside this week, even on the flimsiest bits of news, we suspect that we will finish today's session on a higher note as we head into the weekend," said Edward Meir, an analyst at MF Global, in a research note.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2008 8:52:03 AM

Yesterday I stated that if Crude got down to $120 I would be a buyer (I never short Crude) and yesterday's lows were $120.75. Well I was daytrading Crude and totally forget to take a longer term position (with the USO) and look at it today. New all time highs at $127.43. Geesh!!! Link

Jane Fox : 5/16/2008 8:49:50 AM

However, the big story, for me at least, is that Gold is making a very bold move here. I am long Gold. Link

Jane Fox : 5/16/2008 8:48:31 AM

All markets are trading above their respective previous day highs and both the Russell 2000 (ER2) and Dow (YM) futures are challenging overnight highs. Link

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