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Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 11:56:37 PM

Japan May 1-10 trade deficit Y109.58B vs. Y430.17B deficit year earlier period.

Exports Y1,657B +7.9% vs. year-ago Y1,536B
Imports Y1,766B -10.1% vs. year-ago Y1,966B

Keene Little : 5/28/2008 11:07:00 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Here's an updated SPX 30-min chart that I had been using to track where I thought it might go. A little higher tomorrow morning could have it tagging the top of parallel up-channel from Monday's low (bear flag?), a Fib target and the 100/130 moving averages, all in the 1394-1395 area. Watch for a short play setup there if it happens: Link

If instead we get a quick pullback in the morning watch for support at the bottom of the flag near 1382 and then a bounce back up to a new high, perhaps to 1400 by the end of the day. The RUT shows the potential for a quick rally in the morning as well and then potential resistance at the top of a rising wedge (instead of a bear flag pattern) and its broken uptrend line from March through the May 9th low. A little throw-over finish could have it tagging 739-740 for a short play setup (60-min chart): Link

The techs have been leading to the upside so a little stronger rally in the morning for NDX could have it running up to the top of its bear flag. I have some Fibs pointing to the 2027 area for a possible high. 30-min chart: Link

OI Technical Staff : 5/28/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 8:19:58 PM

GBP/$ 1.9808 (unch) ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 8:19:27 PM

Eur/$ 1.5653 +0.10% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 8:19:08 PM

$/Yen 104.71 +0.01% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 8:17:50 PM

Japanese bought net Y476.5B foreign bonds last week.

Bought Y29.1B foreign stocks last week.

Foreigners sold net Y492.9B Japan bonds last week.

Foreigners bought net Y64.7B Japanese stocks last week.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 5:06:42 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 4:37:55 PM

DXY's 04:00 tick was 72.523

Keene Little : 5/28/2008 4:12:46 PM

We won't know if it means anything until tomorrow but the daily candle on NDX is a bearish hanging man.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 4:06:23 PM

YM 12,588 ... did tick 12,600

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 3:59:45 PM

The OEX is currently testing resistance on 15-minute closes now from 634.30-634.77. Above this, the next resistance is 637.43-638.69, and I would definitely begin looking at rollover potential in that zone, if it's reached, either today or tomorrow. Begin watching with the SPX from 1395.07-1396.94.

As I type, both indices are still within Friday's range, but the candles have improved in appearance. They may suggest a rise to test that resistance, but may instead just be part of the 2-5 day consolidation period before the next direction is known.

Jane Fox : 5/28/2008 3:56:23 PM

By the way the TRIN is on the side of the bulls as well at 0.79

Jane Fox : 5/28/2008 3:55:27 PM

Internals are bullish. Link

Jane Fox : 5/28/2008 3:54:50 PM

Both the VIX and the RVX (Russell 2000's VIX) are supporting the new daily highs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 3:54:21 PM

June Nat. Gas (ng08m) final settlement at today's expiration was $11.916.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 3:51:33 PM

Andersons, Inc. (ANDE) $42.66 +2.47% ...

Keene Little : 5/28/2008 3:51:29 PM

Since it appears we're not going to get another leg down to the recent lows for SPX I've redrawn what could be playing out now. I'm trying to keep up with projections in a corrective price environment and it's a bit like herding cats. If this afternoon's rally can push up to the 1394 area, perhaps by tomorrow morning, it could finish the bounce (there'a a Fib projection there and the 30-min 100/130 moving averages). Link

If it pulls back again, watch for support at the uptrend line from Monday's low, currently near 1382, and then another leg up to maybe 1400. The bottom line is that the price pattern is choppy and forming a bear flag and unless something changes (such as a stronger rally), I continue to lean bearish this bounce and will look for an opportunity to set up a short play (which should be a very good one with big downside potential).

James Brown : 5/28/2008 3:46:52 PM

Exit alert! I am repeating my exit alert in MTL from this morning. The stock has exceeded our target in the $54.00-55.00 zone. Shares are up 7.5% to $55.38.

More importantly, I just read that this Russian mining and steel company is due to report earnings tomorrow. We would not want to hold over the announcement.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 3:44:26 PM

And there's the MID, back to test the former resistance now at just under 871. The MID is 871.15, and it needs to maintain this 30-minute close above this level or it just looks like the momentum players sent it higher and overran resistance by a bit.

As I type, the A/D line is +205, a rather tepid endorsement of any gains today.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 3:36:19 PM

Another new high of the day for the MID. It was leading the way and it's now breaking out with a potential upside target of about 878.50. However, it needs to maintain its breakout on the 30-minute chart by maintaining 30-minute closes above 870.91. It's 872.09 as I type.

Keene Little : 5/28/2008 3:32:32 PM

Be careful of a failure at this morning's highs. This is a hard pattern to decipher but I don't trust the rally here, which of course means the DOW will tack on another 100 points in the next 30 minutes (wink). It's just a very choppy price pattern and subject to some good whipsaws with lack of follow through--just some good stop-running for big money to play with.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 3:29:56 PM

YM Long setup cancel order alert! ... with YM 12,577.

About 5-minutes to late.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 3:28:41 PM

YM 12,568 ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 3:28:30 PM

Son-of-a... gun!

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 3:28:15 PM

YM Long setup alert! ... look to day trade only, the YM should it trade 12,536. Stop goes 12,525. Target 12,600.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 3:26:51 PM

Barring a big move into the close, several indices such as the SPX and OEX will have produced small-bodied candles totally within Friday's range. I said in last night's Wrap that the SPX usually consolidates 2-5 days after a big move before we know next direction, and we're getting that consolidation. That's actually more promising for bulls than an immediate cascade lower would be, but it's certainly not a promise yet that the SPX and OEX are just consolidating prior to another rise. You're going to have to make your hold overnight or not decisions based on a bit of uncertainty.

If the OEX should bounce now or tomorrow, it may find resistance at 637.70-642.20, so I'd watch for rollover potential there. I'd watch at 1396.20-1403.50 for the SPX. Either could just as likely roll down instead.

Keene Little : 5/28/2008 3:26:02 PM

I had mentioned yesterday to keep an eye on RSI on the NDX daily chart since a rejection at the trend line along the lows over the past month would be potentially bearish. Today's chart shows it rolling back over after the test. On the price pattern you can see the possibility that the right shoulder of a H&S top could be completed in another day or two with another drop back down to the recent lows near 1943. Link

That's the bearish setup. The bullish setup here is for a continuation of the rally to a new high, above 2051, to create an impulsive advance off the March low.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 3:17:44 PM

The TRAN is not going anywhere. The RUT is attempting to, but not getting out of its congestion pattern yet. Same with the RLX. The A/D line is just chopping sideways. And the MID, starting it all, has pulled back a bit from that last punch, although not far yet. I don't see a lot of evidence yet that confirms any likely explosion to the top and I'd still remain wary going into the close because it still feels like one of those days when anything can happen. Maybe I just need to get reacclimated to summertime trading.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 3:12:01 PM

The MID just broke to a new high of the day. Now it needs to hold it through at least a 15-minute close. The 30-minute chart shows that this momentum index is facing potentially strong resistance from 869.60-870.75. It's currently 869.44 with a new high of 869.66.

James Brown : 5/28/2008 3:08:33 PM

Brazilian pork and poultry producer Sadia (SDA) is seeing its stock soar. Shares are up 7.1% to a new high after breaking out over resistance near $24.00. I wouldn't chase it here but it might be one for your watch list.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 3:07:14 PM

The SPX has potential resistance on 15-minute closes from 1387.12-1389.04.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 3:06:20 PM

The OEX is still tangled up in S/R from 630.80-631.30. The last jot higher, it found resistance on 15-minute closes at a line now at 632.55, but if it should rise higher, there's stronger resistance that looks quite firm at about 634.47.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 2:59:25 PM

The MID has not yet broken out, although it's come within cents of its day's high. That day's high was 869.39, and MID's high this 15-minute period was 869.13. The MID is currently 868.21. Those hoping this momentum-type index will lead others higher don't want to see it sustaining 15-minute closes beneath 865.09.

James Brown : 5/28/2008 2:57:03 PM

Strength in some of the retailers and apparel stocks is helping JOSB. The stock is up 2.9% and breaking out over technical resistance at its 200-dma.

James Brown : 5/28/2008 2:52:44 PM

S&P Metal & Mining ETF the XME is rebounding sharply today up 3.2%.

Keene Little : 5/28/2008 2:50:51 PM

Trying to bounce again. This is turning into an even choppier day than I had expected to see. If it continues higher it will open up the possibility for a very choppy push to new highs and in that case it would help confirm that the bounce off Friday's low is in fact just a correction of the decline and not the start of something bigger to the upside.

Corrections can be a real mess to figure out and right now I don't see a good setup either way. I'll just let price action play out a little longer into tomorrow in order to provide some clues as to where the top of the correction will be.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 2:50:04 PM

The TRAN is attempting to rise, but facing potential resistance near 5300 on both 15-minute and 30-minute closes. It's at 5289.23 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 2:48:46 PM

The USDJPY isn't doing much of anything different than it's done most of the day, just moving sideways still.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 2:47:59 PM

The MID is trying to lead the parade again. Its high of the day 869.39, and it's currently 868.84. Not all indices are following in breakout attempts, though, so let's see, if the MID is leading, where it leads.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 2:41:51 PM

CAL $13.53 -2.16% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 2:41:25 PM

TSO $24.09

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 2:41:15 PM

VLO $49.10

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 2:40:49 PM

USO $105.81 +1.48% ... feel the pressure.

Keene Little : 5/28/2008 2:37:41 PM

Two equal legs down from this morning's high for SPX is at 1374.46 which is another reason I'm thinking the recent lows will hold and support another rally attempt.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 2:39:01 PM

VIX going sideways; SPX doing so, too. The VXO is doing a lot of spiking around but is essentially going sideways, too; the OEX moves sideways, too. The RLX moves sideways with a slight sideways/down cast to its move; the RUT essentially moves sideways, too, but with occasional spikes to the upside.

It's not speaking to me yet, but I do want to again assert that something feels weird underneath the markets. Maybe it's my imagination, but I don't think so. For two days, it's been as if someone is spending money to send those mo-mo but often narrower based indices higher to convince us that we should be plowing into long positions but the OEX and SPX just act a bit heavier than they should, especially with the lead weight of the financials dragging them down. Since something feels weird to me and since other indicators have flattened, I don't know what to advise, and maybe it's pent-up pressure that's going to explode to the upside, but I don't like this. So, assess whether you want to hold overnight, whatever your trade, and update your profit-protect plans before we move into the last hour of trading.

Keene Little : 5/28/2008 2:36:03 PM

The initial drop off this morning's low looks more like a 3-wave move than a 5-wave move and that has me leaning towards seeing more upside to the bounce off Friday's low. But first I think we'll get a new low below today's mid-day low that will then set up another rally leg. The risk for bulls is that we'll see a lot of selling kick in but as depicted with the pink wave count on the NDX 30-min chart, I'm not quite ready to bet on the downside yet: Link

For SPX we might see another test of Friday's and Monday's lows near 1374 before getting the next leg up to finish the correction of last week's decline: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 2:32:14 PM

With banks (BIX.X and BKX.X) at/near their 2008 lows, we could be at a "tipping point" again where market participants start viewing Treasury YIELDs as attractive risk/reward near-term.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 2:30:24 PM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $48.92 -0.26%, C $21.19 -2.16%, SPY $138.45 -0.15%, AIG $34.96 -4.53%, MSFT $28.08 -1.26%, CSCO $25.38 -0.82%, INTC $23.25 -1.48%, GE $30.30 -0.32%, IWM $73.13 -0.25%, BAC $33.29 -2.57%

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 2:21:12 PM

The USDJPY is 104.68. It broke to the upside through its little triangle but did not reach a new high before dropping back down to test support again. There's the possibility that it's doing nothing more than widening the triangle forming today, but for now watch for the possibility that it could move up toward 104.81 or maybe even 104.95-105, at which point I would begin watching for strong resistance. Watch your bullish equity trades if the USDJPY should either climb up into that resistance and roll over from there or else roll over immediately.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 2:15:40 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 2:07:42 PM

CAL $13.46 -2.67% ... sits on DAILY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 2:07:06 PM

USO $106.00 +1.66% ... checks back at MR2.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 1:55:27 PM

TSO $23.86 +1.53% ... doesn't put up near the "fight"

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 1:55:11 PM

Start watching for potential support for the OEX at about 628.75, although there's the potential to move down toward 627.22 and maybe even 624.80.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 1:55:00 PM

VLO $48.85 +2.90% ... slipping back now.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 1:54:27 PM

DIG $116.36 +0.72% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 1:54:09 PM

DUG 28.65 -0.62% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 1:52:06 PM

XAL.X 18.41 -1.70% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 1:51:50 PM

CAL $13.47 -2.74% ...

Jane Fox : 5/28/2008 1:51:31 PM

This may be a good spot to take a long Gold swing trade as well. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 1:50:58 PM

EIA out tomorrow at 10:30

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 1:50:33 PM

USO lurches above MR2. Bears in some trouble ... again.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 1:48:08 PM

FXE 156.72 -0.40% ...

Keene Little : 5/28/2008 1:48:04 PM

With the steeper drop back down I would lower my stop on a short play to the last high near 1:30 PM. That should hold if we're to now proceed to new lows. Any higher than that would suggest this morning's high will be exceeded.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 1:46:22 PM

USO $105.93 +1.60% ... comes back to MR2.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 1:43:43 PM

USO $105.71 +1.39%

UGA $62.60 +1.29% ... rather thin and not learly as liquid as USO.

Oil and Gasoline futures about equally matched ono % basis.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 1:42:12 PM

Lowest on VLO on post-profile basis was $48.69, then large bidder came in at $48.75 and it has been creeping higher since.

Jane Fox : 5/28/2008 1:41:27 PM

Looks like I should have taken my own advise and opened a long swing trade in Crude. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 1:40:31 PM

Day trade short stop alert! ... on the 1/2 position in shares of Valero Energy (VLO) $49.01

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 1:38:21 PM

We're moving into a typical stop-running time of day from 1:35-1:55 pm ET. Be aware that we might see some tests now, to see if a dip will be met with buying or a bounce with selling. Just be aware that the test is not the same thing as a result. The test can result in big money deciding that a dip is met with either buying or selling and the same with a bounce.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 1:30:35 PM

Potential resistance for the OEX on 15-minute closes is at 632.17 and then, much stronger, at 634.57-634.96. Support looks fairly weak, but it has all day and, so far, the OEX has not yet hit it.

James Brown : 5/28/2008 1:32:06 PM

Just heard a very interesting statement from ExxonMobil (XOM) CEO Rex Tillerson:

"Even with this rapid growth, the combination of the combined contribution of wind, solar and biofuels to meet total global energy demand in the year 2030 is still expected to be only 2%."

James Brown : 5/28/2008 1:25:30 PM

Fertilizer and Agriculture stocks are out performing today. Check these out: AG, CF, MON, MOS, TRA, POT.
There might be a trade in here somewhere:

AG chart: Link

CF chart: Link

MOS chart: Link

POT chart: Link

TRA chart: Link

Keene Little : 5/28/2008 1:24:21 PM

NYSE is making a new daily high so it supports the idea that we'll get another leg up as I showed on the SPX chart. If you're short from this morning and hanging on I would consider taking profits off the table if the other indices rally above the highs near 11:00 AM (as the NYSE has now done). For now there remains the possibility that we'll see the bounce off the low just past 12:00 PM fail.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 1:18:02 PM

The A/D line rises toward a test of +120 potential Keltner resistance and +180 to +250 potential historical resistance. It's at +93 as I type. Basically, it's rising into a retest of what was support since yesterday morning, broken this morning on the 9:00 15-minute candle. Again, we're seeing some tests going on, but we don't yet know the outcome of those tests.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 1:17:53 PM

Biiiiig bidder in Cincinnati

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 1:16:00 PM

Day trade short lower stop alert! ... on the 1/2 position in Valero Energy (VLO) $48.73 +2.65% ... to even.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 1:14:42 PM

The BIX and BKX now attempt bounces off their day's lows (and very near their year's lows, too) but haven't gone far yet.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 1:13:40 PM

The RUT is now bouncing, too, but again into potential resistance. The RLX really isn't doing much yet, though, and nor is the TRAN. Let's watch to see if these start getting hit with buying one after another or if this is just some kind of tentative test.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 1:11:34 PM

Traders are sending the MID, the S&P MidCap index, up within its day's range, but the other indicator indices aren't really following suit and the MID is moving up to test potentially significant resistance on 15-minute closes at 868.01, below the day's 869.39 high. I'm not making much of this yet and urge you not to do so, either, other than to acknowledge that one of these mo-mo indices is being bought and watching what happens as a result. The MID is 867.86 as I type. I honestly don't like the day's action. Something seems odd and maybe a bit stinky underneath the market action, so I'm wary.

James Brown : 5/28/2008 1:11:00 PM

Coal stocks are out performing the markets today. Here are a few to check out: BTU, ACI, FDG, JRCC, MEE, and PCX

There might be a trade here in BTU. chart: Link

James Brown : 5/28/2008 1:06:38 PM

Shipping stocks are also out performing the market today. Many of these are bouncing after a two-week correction.

DRYS +6.2%
EXM +3.1%
FRO +1.0%
PRGN +2.7%
TBSI +6.9%
NM +5.99%
DSX +5.9%
GNK +3.6%
FREE +4.2%


Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 1:05:26 PM

2-year notes: 2.640%; 21.12% at the high.
Bid-to-cover was 2.28
Coupon was 2.63%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 1:04:25 PM

2-year note auction results posted.

James Brown : 5/28/2008 1:03:12 PM

Steel Stocks are out performing today. These are all trading higher: GGB, MT, NUE, RS, SID, X

James Brown : 5/28/2008 12:57:46 PM

The CBOE Oil Index (OIX) is testing the bottom of its rising channel today. I hesitate to suggest new bullish positions here but this is probably one potential spot to consider it. chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 12:54:22 PM

The USDJPY is now 104.56. It's been forming a triangle near the low of its post-durable-goods drop. While that would normally be considered as indicative of another drop, it's actually a more neutral response than might have happened. That other response was a shorter time spent consolidating near 104.60 and then a sharp drop through 104.40.

With this triangle, you can watch for the direction of the next breakout for guidance on what equities might do, and you can watch to see that any breakout is maintained. Right now, that would be through sustained 15-minute closes below 105.50 or above 104.65.

Note: there's also a triangle formation on the daily chart, but I'm obviously not referencing that here. This one is forming today on the 15-minute chart and would give only short-term guidance.

James Brown : 5/28/2008 12:52:46 PM

The Yield on the 10-year bond just hit 4.0% and is trading near its simple and exponential 200-dma. chart: Link

Keene Little : 5/28/2008 12:50:58 PM

Today's pullback is a 3-wave move so far and if the bounce off the mid-day low can continue there is the possibility we'll see the next leg up for a larger 3-wave bounce off Friday's low. the upside potential for SPX is to about 1394-1404 (if we get the bounce I'll get a better upside target once more of the rally leg develops). The bulls need to keep this little bounce alive otherwise the downside move could accelerate lower. Updated 30-min chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 12:49:19 PM

Both the OEX and SPX continue to test their 15-minute 9-ema's. The OEX still looks vulnerable, but now to 627.03 or perhaps 625.13, next support levels. Sustained 15-minute closes above 631.45 would erase that vulnerability.

James Brown : 5/28/2008 12:49:02 PM

The S&P Insurance Index (IUX) is starting to look a little short-term oversold thanks in part to the sell-off in AIG. It looks like the IUX broke down from a big bear flag about three weeks ago. chart: Link

James Brown : 5/28/2008 12:44:36 PM

Ralph Lauren Polo Corp. (RL) is out performing the market today following its earnings report. The company reported earnings of $1.00/share versus estimates for 65 cents/share. Revenues were up 20% and better than expected.

The stock gapped open above its 200-dma around $66.50 and shares are currently up 10.9% to $68.50.

The most recent data listed short interest at 10.5% of the 56.4 million-share float.

James Brown : 5/28/2008 12:40:31 PM

CNBC saying that Key Corp (KEY), a large bank, has essentially doubled their "loss guidance" on everything from mortgages to student loans. KEY has lowered their earnings to $1.60, which is about what they payout in their dividend. The stock is down -11.4% to $19.44. Obvious concern that they might cut their dividend soon.

James Brown : 5/28/2008 12:33:42 PM

There has been a lot of talk about the Transports. I'm noticing that the railroad stocks aren't moving much today after yesterday's gain. Here's a chart of the DJUSRR railroad index . chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 12:22:12 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

James Brown : 5/28/2008 12:21:32 PM

Dow-component IBM is up 0.8% and challenging its highs from mid May around $129. A few days ago the stock bounced from the bottom of its rising channel. chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 12:18:29 PM

The OEX's 15-minute 9-ema is 630.81 with further potential resistance at 631.48. For the SPX, those numbers are grouped near 1382-1382.25.

Keene Little : 5/28/2008 12:15:19 PM

Linda had commented several times this morning about how the TRAN popped higher this morning but then gave most of it back right away. The bounce off Friday's low is a 3-wave bounce where the 2nd leg up nearly achieved 162% of the 1st leg up, which is at 5338.81 (this morning's high was 5335.01). It also tagged its 50% retracement of last week's decline at 5328.69. 30-min chart: Link

Therefore the next thing I'm watching is to see if the TRAN consolidates here for a bit and then rallies again (green) or if it starts back down and takes out yesterday morning's high (dark red). An overlap of yesterday morning's high at 5231 (and this is where I talk about overlap in a bounce) would suggest the correction of last week's decline is finished and we'll see new lows.

But a consolidation and push back above this morning's high would create a 5-wave advance off Friday's low and that would suggest a pullback will be followed by more highs. Now we let price tell us which pattern is playing out and then position ourselves accordingly.

James Brown : 5/28/2008 12:14:07 PM

Interesting headline... It probably doesn't mean much to most of us with our premium chart and quote services but Yahoo (YHOO) is now providing free real-time quotes to its users.

Here's an excerpt from the press release: NEW YORK, May 28 (Reuters) - BATS Trading Inc., the third largest U.S. equities market, on Wednesday will begin offering real-time stock quotes free of charge to Yahoo Finance's 19 million users in its latest effort to gain market share from the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq.

For the whole article: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 12:10:18 PM

Day trade short alert! ... for 1/2 position in shares of Valero Energy (VLO) at the bid of $49.01. Stop goes $49.23. Target $48.00.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 12:08:15 PM

The OEX still has a potential downside target, with that target now at 626.93 and perhaps as low as 625.46. As I said earlier, hitting these downside targets, then at slightly different levels, is not a given but this vulnerability should be factored into your trading plans.

James Brown : 5/28/2008 12:06:35 PM

Exit Alert! Mechel OAO (MTL) , an OI call play, has hit our target. The stock continues to bounce and shares are up 5.2% today on top of yesterday's gains. The intraday high is $54.42. Our target was the $54.00-55.00 range.

James Brown : 5/28/2008 12:03:43 PM

Asian markets were mixed last night...

Chinese Shanghai Composite... +2.4%
Hong Kong Hang Seng ........ -0.13%
Japan NIKKEI 225 Index ..... -1.3%

European markets generally higher...

French CAC-40 ..... +1.3%
German DAX ........ +1.0%
England FTSE 100 .. +0.18%

Keene Little : 5/28/2008 11:48:37 AM

I've been tracking the banks (BIX) to see if they'd stay in a sideways triangle pattern since the March low or continue down in a descending wedge pattern. Today's break below the bottom of the sideways triangle negates that pattern so the next possibility is a descending triangle (lower highs, flat bottom) which is where BIX is currently: Link

The move down from May 2nd also has two equal legs down at 220.94 (this morning's low so far is 221.06) so it's possible we'll see another bounce back up in the banks (pink). But if the BIX drops below 220 then I suspect it will work its way down towards 200 before another larger bounce (dark red). As I've been saying, follow the money.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 11:45:25 AM

Airline Index (XAL.X) 18.60 -0.69% ... not giving us any hint of downside resolution in oil.

Refiners VLO +3.11% and TSO +1.78% ... some thought to ease in price. Both found sellers at respective WKLY Pivots of $49.22 and $24.45.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 11:42:10 AM

Adding to the sense of near-term pressure building in USO is its close right at our "stacked" Bailey Wave mid-point channel yesterday, and trade right around it this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 11:33:53 AM

C $21.43 -1.06% ... #3 most active

GE $30.28 -0.39% ... #4 most active

AIG $34.94 -4.61% ... #7 most active.

Now JPM $42.38 -1.46% ... shuffled up to #10 most active.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 11:31:42 AM

Potential OEX support on 15-minute closes at 630.43, but the OEX currently has a potential downside target of 625.79-626.82. While it's not a given that it will be reached, especially since the OEX has been chopping back and forth across the line that establishes it as a potential downside target, I'd remain aware of that vulnerability.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 11:25:10 AM

The A/D line is -138 as I type, not so far off its -295 low of the day and consolidating above that low and finding resistance on 15-minute closes at below the flattened 15-minute 9-ema now at +73.50. It looks as likely to fall toward -600 as it does to climb back to that 15-minute 9-ema.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 11:24:44 AM

Caterpillar (CAT) $82.63 +0.82% ... showing some upside resolution to a "doji" from yesterday. Showed some downside resolution to a "doji" from 05/21/08.

Has been range-bound between $80-$85 from just over a month.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 11:22:18 AM

VIX just hit a new high of the day, although only minimally and now back below it. In truth, the VIX keeps finding resistance on 15-minute closes beneath Keltner resistance now at 19.80 and along potential resistance now at 19.60. It has potential support on 15-minute closes at 19.26 and then layered down to 19.00. So far, it's not doing much of anything all that bearish, nothing that would support any alarm based on what we saw on those indicator type indices this morning and all the action on the BIX and BKX I've been pointing out this morning, so I'm personally breathing a little easier, but something is still not right here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 11:21:48 AM

Dow Industrials components ... PRICE weighted index Link

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 11:18:38 AM

USDJPY now 104.65.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 11:16:57 AM

"Smaller priced" Dow components seeing some volume this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 11:16:10 AM

General Electric (GE) $30.39 -0.03% ... shuffled to #3 most active.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 11:09:48 AM

Not bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 11:09:36 AM

Big financials weak, heavily traded.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 11:09:17 AM

American Intl. Group (AIG) $34.80 -4.96% ... shuffled up to #5 most active.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 11:19:11 AM

Citigroup (C) $21.50 -0.73% ... shuffled up to #2 most active.

Jane Fox : 5/28/2008 11:04:28 AM

This may be the spot to get on board crude but I am going to wait until the end of the day to see how this doji looks. I am day-trading Crude and it is looking weak so it may be too early to be thinking about a long swing trade here. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 11:03:19 AM

Watch the USDJPY for help. It if gets too much past 104.90 or starts producing consistant 15-minute closes above it, it will have refuted any negative connotations to its actions today. If it consolidates for 30 minutes to an hour beneath about 104.90 and especially if near 104.80, the pattern is neutral to slightly bearish. If it rolls down below about 104.40, that's short-term bearish for the USDJPY and for equities. It's 104.75 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 11:03:08 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $104.18 -0.07% ... has been either side of the June futures expiration close. On May 20, when June futures expired, the USO finished $104.30.

Today's low in the USO cleary marked by WKLY S1. Day's high just shy of WKLY Pivot.

Feel/observe some pressure here.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 11:00:06 AM

Potential OEX resistance now at 634.29-635.59 on 15-minute closes. For the SPX, that's 1387.75-1390.52.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 10:59:13 AM

NVIDIA (NVDA) $23.74 +1.62% ... was raised to "market outperform" at JMP Securities. The firm cited the company's recent momentum, especially in the high-end graphics market. Krishna Shankar said recent channel checks showed market share gains.

Keene Little : 5/28/2008 10:53:10 AM

Commodities have been acting a bit strange since the overnight session and so far I don't see it correlating with any weird movement in currencies. I see oil and the metals dropped hard during the overnight session, bounced early this morning and then dropped to a new low at their open (8:20 AM). Since then they've bounced strongly back up. Oil has retraced its overnight drop, silver is back in the green and gold hasn't quite been able to close its gap with yesterday's close.

I like to watch the euro since it often correlates well with gold (since I'm trading gold) and typically opposite to the US dollar. The euro also dropped last night but has only made a relatively small retracement of that drop. So I'm not sure what to make of the movement today in commodities other than to say the decline from recent highs now looks impulsive and I'm thinking this morning's bounce is just a correction that will then lead to lower lows.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 10:35:03 AM

The OEX looks about as likely to fall toward 626.11-626.65 as it does to climb back toward 634.18-635.63. With the mixed-up indicators (VIX rising, but tepidly, into resistance, crazy action in the indices I use as indicator indices, a mild and neutral-to-bullish TRIN, an A/D line near the low of the day), I don't have anything other than the mixed possibilities seen on that OEX chart to guide me as to which possibility is the most likely.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 10:34:16 AM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $48.95 -0.20%, SPY $138.42 -0.17%, CSCO $25.41 -0.70%, MSFT $28.23 -0.70%, AAPL $186.36 -0.03%, YHOO $27.17 +0.62%, XLF $24.46 -1.29%, NI $17.92 +0.90%, WYE $43.95 +1.75%, NVDA $23.79 +1.84%

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 10:32:03 AM

Weird, weird. All this zooming around, this weird action in those indicator indices at least, and the TRIN is a sedate and slightly bullish 0.93.

Keene Little : 5/28/2008 10:30:02 AM

There's another reason to feel bearish about the bounce off Friday's low--there are way too many people feeling bullish about it and snapping up call options. The ISEE call/put data shows too much bullish enthusiasm (closed at 149 yesterday and anything near 150 is a warning to bulls). Bulls want to see a wall of worry (lots of put buying) instead of "what, me worry?". Even this morning's numbers show lots of call buying going on. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 10:29:31 AM

Like the BIX, the BKX is dropping into the support zone for this year. Like the BIX, it's already below its daily closing low for the year, with that at 75.31 and with the BKX currently at 74.67. It's not below the intraday low, of course, which was 73.22, but it's not so far off it now, either, and it's well below most intraday lows. So, we wait to see if support kicks in here and the dip buying starts again as it did in January, March and April or whether that potential bearish triangle that it's been forming results in a bearish confirmation by a stronger drop.

Jeff Bailey : 5/28/2008 10:25:43 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Keene Little : 5/28/2008 10:25:03 AM

When I look at NDX or RUT I see enough of a bounce to correct last week's decline (in price but not so much in time) to suggest we could see a decline from here that drops back below Friday's low (and the reason for the short recommendation). But the DOW and SPX corrections look too small in both time and price and that continues to have me thinking that we're only going to get a pullback before another bounce back up.

So if you're short against this morning's high, just keep ratcheting down your stop so as to protect profits. If we see price drop hard below Friday's low then we'll know the correction to last week's decline is finished. But this SPX 60-min chart shows how a larger 3-wave bounce could develop--watch for potential support off the October downtrend line near 1380. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 10:23:49 AM

I look at the VIX and I don't yet see strong verification of anything too bearish. I look at the A/D line, though, and see it testing and barely clinging to potential support near -95 on 15-minute closes, not so far off its low of the day now. The A/D line is -33 as I type. I see the TRAN having reversed more than half its first 15-minute candle's range, a very wide range. I see the BIX plunging toward its March intraday low, but moving into a zone that has been tested and established as support. Will the plunge stop soon and another big bounce begin?

As I said in my 10:03:35 post, hold onto your hats. Something a bit weird and crazy is going on underneath what looks rather sedate on our SPX and OEX charts, and I don't know what it means.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 10:16:57 AM

BIX is plunging. At 221.84, it's not so far from its 3/17/08 low of 218.64. With four tests of that zone, its closing low has been 223.48, so it's already below its daily closing low for this year but not below the intraday low. As should be obvious from those previous tests, this is also a potential support zone and I would expect dip-buyers to start stepping in soon, but we really should watch whether they're successful before we get too certain the support is going to hold.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 10:12:27 AM

Those who want to see further gains want to see the OEX find support on 15-minute closes at 631.30-631.70. However, I have to note that all this movement this morning has had the effect of firming up the appearance of the resistance from 634.08-635.78, making it look as if that's going to be even tougher to break through now. It might be tough enough that the OEX can't even closely approach it.

We'll have to see, and I continue to keep a close watch on the TRAN and some of the other indicator indices. As I said earlier, something weird is going on, and since I don't quite understand it, I'm going to be cautious in my own assessments and urge you to be, too.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 10:03:35 AM

Hold onto your hats because this could be a crazy morning. A lot of those indicator indices zoomed way up in the first few minutes and have now pulled back sharply, but pulled back to test what should have been resistance and may now be support. When I'm looking at the charts of the TRAN and such indices, I'm seeing movements like those after FOMC releases. That's not showing up on the SPX and OEX charts, which are behaving rather sedately in comparison, but something is going on and I'm not sure where it will end. If I looked at the TRAN's chart alone, I wouldn't think it will end well for bulls because the early gains were trounced so soundly, but it's best to just take a step back in your assessments when you see this kind of stuff.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 10:00:32 AM

So far, the OEX is still finding support on 15-minute closes at its 15-minute 9-ema, but now it's testing it again, with that average at 632.82. I wouldn't be surprised to se 631-631.70 tested, although that's not yet a probability and still just a possibility.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 9:58:17 AM

The TRAN has reversed more than half its range during the first 30 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 9:57:35 AM

I noted earlier that the USDJPY had been pulling back since the release of the durable goods number and it's continued its pullback. It's at 104.81 as I type, testing the breakout benchmark. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce attempt begin somewhere between now and about 104.60, but if that happens, I'd watch for rollover potential again somwhere near 104.80 if it first dips toward 104.60, and somewhere near 105.90 if it bounces right now.

Keene Little : 5/28/2008 9:57:21 AM

The RUT, which has been the strongest index, is facing resistance at its broken uptrend line from March when drawn through th May 9th low, currently near 735.60. It poked briefly above the trend line this morning, tagged its 62% retracement of last week's decline, and now is looking like it may not be able to hold above the line. Like NDX, this is a good place to try the short side for what could be the next leg down in its new bear market decline. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 9:54:51 AM

Keep your eyes on the TRAN, as I suggested earlier. It's pulling back sharply now.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 9:48:13 AM

We're seeing something like what we saw early yesterday, with some of these indices I think of as indicator indices such as the TRAN, RUT, MID and RLX zooming, but the SPX and OEX not responding in kind. You know what happened yesterday after the open, so you know what to watch. I do note that the BIX is dropping sharply as is the BKX, so the financials are going to make it tough on the SPX and OEX to follow suit.

Keene Little : 5/28/2008 9:46:50 AM

NDX did a brief poke above its Fib projection at 2002.53 and has now dropped back below it. The risk here, for longs, is that the bounce off Friday's low is now complete. For bears this makes the first place to try a short play.

Keene Little : 5/28/2008 9:45:03 AM

The October downtrend line for the DOW, which it dropped back below last week and found to be resistance again on its bounce on Thursday, is currently near 12630. So if it rallies up to there watch for resistance again.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 9:43:35 AM

The TRAN is zooming. Using this as a sort of indicator index, it's good news for OEX, SPX and Dow bulls. Don't expect too strong a pullback in those indices while the TRAN zooms, but remember that it can zoom right back quickly, too, so keep your eye on it.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 9:39:44 AM

This climb is so far not particularly impressive, is it? Neither the OEX nor the SPX have approached their next upside potential targets, at 635.87 for the OEX and 1391.05 for the SPX.

Jane Fox : 5/28/2008 9:37:30 AM

AD line opens at +670, bullish but not overly so.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 9:36:51 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: The A/D line's open isn't given much information. The A/D line opened within the choppy range that it began establishing yesterday. It did open below the 15-minute 9-ema, which it had been using as support yesterday, and it's zooming up to retest it as I type, with that at about 680 and the A/D line at 679 as I type. There's really not much information here, although a 15-minute close below that 9-ema would suggest that it's not as strong as it was at the close yesterday and that it might be slightly more likely to test lower support, perhaps at 500 or even 100-200. A move above yesterday afternoon's resistance zone at about 825 and 15-minute close above it would perhaps suggest a climb toward 900 or perhaps even 1150.

Jane Fox : 5/28/2008 9:35:32 AM

Here are your overnight charts. It is quite obvious the bulls had control. Link

Keene Little : 5/28/2008 9:31:40 AM

Equity futures made a nice climb off their overnight low once the European markets opened. NQ is already indicating that NDX will rally above the 2002.53 projection I showed in last night's chart so that would be a bullish sign. But be a little careful about the early-morning pop up since the short term pattern suggests at least a correction of yesterday's rally will be due.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 9:31:30 AM

The USDJPY climbed strongly overnight, but bulls need to be aware that it's been dropping sharply since the durable goods number was released. It's moved down from its 105.29 high to its current 104.88. It's still in breakout mode, but when viewed on a daily chart, all this zooming around is still occurring within a narrowing triangle that began forming as it broke through the rising trendline off the March low.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 9:28:04 AM

If the SPX should rise first thing this morning, it has potential resistance on 15-minute closes at 1386.60 and then again, perhaps stronger, at 1390.83. If you want a bullish day, you want that push up toward 1390.83, at least, and then you want the first 15-minute close above 1386.60, and not with a doji-type candle, either. If you're bearish, you'd prefer no climb at all, but if you're not going to get that, you'd like to see a first 15-minute close below 1386.60 and preferably below 1386.50.

Linda Piazza : 5/28/2008 9:19:39 AM

Futures are higher this morning. Extrapolating where the OEX might go based on where the SPX futures are in relationship to fair value is an iffy business, especially since we never know if the cash markets are going to behave in accordance with futures' action, but here goes. If the OEX were to move up in accordance with what I'm seeing on SPX futures, then we might expect it to be approaching or perhaps testing what may be significant resistance on 15-minute closes at 635.79. The OEX also has potential Fib resistance (23.6% of the drop from the 5/19 high) at about 634.75. It has lower potential resistance, too, on 15-minute closes, at 633.81. But, some charts and some formations on charts set up a potential upside target just under 637, although that's an iffy one.

Taken altogether, then, I would look for a move up toward 635-636, but I'd be careful of my expectations until after we watch how the OEX behaves and how internals look after such a move. If the OEX then closes the first 15-minute period back below 633.81 or so and the first 30-minute period back below 634.05 or so, then we're going to have to watch even more carefully to determine whether any further move higher, especially into the 637-639 resistance zone, is possible or if that early rise is likely to be it. If the OEX closes that first 15-minute period above about 633.81, then we may see further testing of the 635.79 resistance, although if it closes with a doji, that's still questionable. If that 637-639 zone should be tested, I would definitely watch carefully for rollover potential.

Jane Fox : 5/28/2008 8:53:55 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Bear Stearns Cos. plans to turn over documents to securities regulators showing that several financial giants, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. , Citadel Investment Group and Paulson & Co., slashed their exposure to the securities firm in the weeks before its collapse, according to The Wall Street Journal. The Securities and Exchange Commission, as part of an ongoing inquiry into the events surrounding Bear's implosion in March, has sought and will examine these trading records, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter say. The SEC is expected to use the data to determine whether any trading activity was improperly coordinated in any way, constituted manipulation or otherwise contributed to Bear Stearns's collapse, the newspaper added.

Jane Fox : 5/28/2008 8:51:58 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- New orders for U.S.-made durable goods fell 0.5% in April, not nearly as much as expected, as strength in electronic orders offset the expected sharp drop in orders for airplanes and cars, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

Although this is the second month in a row that durables have declined, the drop was not nearly as bad as the 2.8% drop expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. .

Economists had projected a decline because they said there would be fewer orders for transportation equipment because of the high cost of oil. .

Economists knew before the data was released that Boeing Co. had less orders in April compared with March. Aircraft orders are very volatile. .

Indeed, transportation orders fell 8.0% in April after falling 5.1% in March. Aircraft orders fell 24.4%.

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