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Keene Little : 5/29/2008 11:51:35 PM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

I like the setup for a another short play setup on Friday. It looks like we might get an early-morning low followed by a bounce to correct the afternoon decline. I'll be watching for a bounce to enter a short against Thursday's high. As shown on the SPX 60-min chart, a push above Thursday's high would be bullish (green). Otherwise I'm expecting another big decline. Link

The RUT made a new high above the May 19th high so it's a definite possibility the others will follow (bearish non-confirmation if they don't). NDX is the closest to its May 19th high so if it rallies above Thursday's high that would be the next level to watch (and consider shorting against).

The daily chart shows how it found resistance at the mid line of its up-channel from March (after using it for support on pullbacks) so watch for that to continue acting as resistance if it tries to push a little higher. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 10:49:38 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 5/29/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 5:09:00 PM

Seeing two rather large crosses in the IWM after the close. 1.00 million at $73.76 and another 1.498 at $73.76.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 5:05:28 PM

J Crew (JCG) $46.91 -1.49% ... plunges to $38.79 extended on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 5:04:01 PM

Washington Oil Marketers Assoc. and Petroleum Marketers Association of America team up in a nationwide campaign to lower oil prices by tightening a loophole in commodities regulation that allows speculative oil traders to operate beyond the reach of federal oversight in foreign commodities exchanges.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 4:33:16 PM

DXY's 04:00 tick was 73.042

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 4:23:06 PM

EIA's This Week In Petroleum Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 4:05:10 PM

NVIDIA (NVDA) $23.50 -0.33% ... creeps higher at $24.23.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 4:04:05 PM

Dell Computer (DELL) $21.78 +0.41% ... gets a "pop" to $23.00 extended on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 4:01:20 PM

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) $39.23 -1.37% ... priced its $2 billion equity-unit offering (35 million units) at $50 each. Will have a 4.7% yield and require the holders to buy AMD common stock within three years.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 3:58:36 PM

Baker Hughes (BHI) $87.85 -1.65% ... announcing some plans for a stock buyback program.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 3:49:57 PM

Into the close ... NASDAQ NH/NL holding reverted at 90:83. It will take a 5-day NH/NL measure of 40% to see a 3-box reversal back up. Current tabulation is 37.9%.

10-day NH/NL ratio matching recent bull wave high of 38.7% from 5/23/08.

Keene Little : 5/29/2008 3:43:22 PM

I'm feeling like I gotten shaken out of my short play but I'm still not comfortable with the pullback in the techs as it looks a bit corrective with overlapping highs and lows within the decline. But sometimes the 1st wave of a new move (down in this case) can be deceiving, especially on a small timeframe such as the 3-min chart I'm looking at.

If the current pullback gets a bounce to a lower high and then drops lower again that will be a sign that the top is in (probably find out tomorrow at this point). That's when I'd be more comfortable trying the short side again.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 3:39:59 PM

Target on the VLO-FW is $52.50 in the underlying.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 3:31:18 PM

Nymex July Crude (cl07n) settled down $4.41, or -3.37% at $126.62.

July Unleaded (rb08n) settled down $0.0569, or -1.68% at $3.3272.

This has my current month "crack spread" tabulation at 26.27. Highest since 04/03/08.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 3:23:38 PM

September Copper (hg08u) $3.57 -3.25% ... sitting on 50% conventional $3.55 (12/17/07 low to S&P Brazil upgrade high from 05/05/08).

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 3:21:31 PM

RIO $39.50 -2.85% ... "not this time" ... eases back to session low

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 3:16:03 PM

Argentina's Govt: Reporting shopping center sales +26.1% on year, +4.8% on month.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 3:15:07 PM

Plains All American (PAA) $47.30 +1.32% ... warns that it sees 2Q gain of $13M from hedges.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 3:06:31 PM

Bond Market Closed ... 13-week Treasury Yield finished up 1.0 bp at 1.865%, while the 5-year Yield rose a healthy 7.9 bp to 3.413%. Longer-dated maturities had the benchmark 10-year yield rising 7.0 bp to finish 4.079%, while the longest dated 30-year Treasury Yield ($TYX.X) rose 6.8 bp to 4.765%, finishing just under its 80.9% conventional 4.770% (10/15/07 benchmark to 01/23/08 low.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 3:02:55 PM

It'll still have alot of eyeball rolling higher for equity.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 3:01:24 PM

It's going to be close on the 30-year ... 45-seconds to close.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 2:52:05 PM

USO $102.67

UGA $91.98

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 2:44:56 PM

Swing trade bullish call alert! ... for one (1) of the Valero Energy VLO Jun $47.50 Calls (VLO-FW) at the offer of $2.62.

VLO $48.92 -1.92% ...

Keene Little : 5/29/2008 2:41:59 PM

That was a not-so-nice stop run and now right back down again. However, the way the decline started from the high near 1:00 PM has me thinking this could all be part of a consolidation pattern that will resolve to the upside again. Therefore be careful now about a false breakdown.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 2:33:37 PM

Brazil Real hits nine-year high at BRL 1.637/$

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 2:33:03 PM

EWZ $100.04 +0.83% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 2:32:40 PM

PBR $72.00 -1.82% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 2:32:20 PM

RIO $40.39 -0.68% ..

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 2:31:52 PM

Fitch comes with an upgrade on Brazil's short-term IDR to "F3", cites improved external, publich balance sheet.

Keene Little : 5/29/2008 2:31:27 PM

Nice little whipsaw move to the upside there and then right back down. The little buggers are going to make this tough to short.

Keene Little : 5/29/2008 2:18:56 PM

I'm not impressed with the pullback from the high (considering the fact that I'm short and want to see a stronger drop). It looks corrective and suggests a new high is coming.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 2:14:22 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 2:11:18 PM

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) $131,250 +1.35% ... tries to reclaim both its 200-day SMA and correlative 19.1% conventional (12/11/07 high to 01/16/08 now relative low)

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 2:00:20 PM

FXB $198.20 -0.23% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 1:59:53 PM

Good eye Jane! ... FXE 155.39 -0.96% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 1:52:39 PM

Corn and wheat getting hit some more.

James Brown : 5/29/2008 1:42:15 PM

Guest analyst on CNBC is plugging National Oil Well (NOV) as a buy talking about how in demand their deep-sea services are. NOV is a recent addition to the OI call list.

Keene Little : 5/29/2008 1:32:56 PM

If you tried shorting this, lower your stop to a couple of ticks to a new high. That should be the high of the day. If we get a corrective pullback (instead of a sharp decline) I'll probably be looking to cover my short and take profits off the table. It's too early to tell what may develop here.

James Brown : 5/29/2008 1:29:20 PM

BTK biotech index is up 2.6% and trying to breakout over resistance one-day ahead of the ASCO conference, which begins tomorrow. chart: Link

Jane Fox : 5/29/2008 1:26:02 PM

LONDON (MarketWatch) - British house prices fell sharply in May, posting the largest monthly drop in the history of a widely followed housing index, mortgage lender Nationwide said.

Meanwhile, the Confederation of British Industry's monthly distributive trades survey showed a second consecutive monthly drop in retail sales and building inflation pressures.

Together, the housing data and the retail figures highlighted the Bank of England's increasingly stark monetary-policy dilemma, economists said.

House prices fell for the seventh consecutive month, dropping 2.5% from April, and were 4.4% lower than they were in May 2007, Nationwide said. The string of seven monthly price declines is also the longest since 1992, during the housing crash of the early 1990s.

The average U.K. house price now stands at 173,583 pounds ($343,824), down from 178,555 pounds ($353,672) in April, Nationwide said. House prices and U.K. consumer spending are closely correlated, economists say.

The drop exceeded consensus expectations for a 0.6% monthly decline and a fall of 1.9% from a year ago. Those were compiled in a Dow Jones Newswires survey of economists.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 1:24:16 PM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $49.81 +1.13%, CFC $5.47 +9.83%, C $22.02 +1.94%, INTC $23.16 -1.32%, CSCO $26.25 +2.77%, GE $30.95 +1.30%, SPY $140.57 +0.91%, MSFT $28.53 +1.24%, XLE $86.26 -1.42%, ORCL $22.87 +0.35%

James Brown : 5/29/2008 1:24:14 PM

MasterCard (MA) is soaring to new highs. The stock is up $22.25 to $309.20, breaking through resistance at $300.00.

Earlier today at its investor day meeting MA said they see double-digit net revenue growth for 2008. MA's comments about their long-term strategy said the company was aiming for +20-30% net income growth and +12-15% average annual net revenue growth.

Jane Fox : 5/29/2008 1:20:28 PM

SPX is making a very bold move here but it has a ways to go before the bulls can claim victory and say the trend has once again reversed and is now up. Link

James Brown : 5/29/2008 1:16:54 PM

Talking about silver... Apex Silver Mines (SIL) is down 5.2% to $7.57 and a new six-year low.

Keene Little : 5/29/2008 1:15:48 PM

I should have shorted silver instead of gold--silver is down -4.8% today. That little metal can really swing.

James Brown : 5/29/2008 1:15:48 PM

The RLX retail index is up 1.7% and rushing past a cloud of moving averages including its 50-dma. Yet it's not helping shares of Sears (SHLD). SHLD is down 2.6% and testing support after reporting earnings. The company missed estimates by 68 cents a share. The results were a loss of 53 cents a share. The Board of Directors did approve another $500 million in its stock buy back program.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 1:13:57 PM

June Palladium (pa08m) 424.85 -2.61% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 1:13:27 PM

PAL $5.58 -5.42% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 1:12:58 PM

FXE $155.36 -0.98% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 1:12:23 PM

Swing trade long exit alert! ... for the 100 shares in Stillwater Mining (SWC) at the bid of $14.10 -5.81% ...

James Brown : 5/29/2008 1:10:28 PM

Exit alert! ishares Russell 2000 (IWM) is up 1.6% and near $75.00. I've been suggesting that more conservative traders may want to exit near the mid May resistance around $74.50.

James Brown : 5/29/2008 1:08:45 PM

Healthcare stocks are performing well. The HMO index is up 2.4%.

some of the leaders...
Wellpoint (WLP) is up 2% and hitting new ten-week highs.
AET +2.4% and bouncing from support near $45.00.
CVH +3.7% and bouncing from its 10-dma.
HNT +3.8%
HUM +2.6% and hitting new ten-week highs.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 1:08:30 PM

CurrencyShares Japan (FXY) 94.33 -1.08% ...

Keene Little : 5/29/2008 1:08:07 PM

NDX has now tagged 2027 and the top of its parallel up-channel from Friday. If this is to be just a correction of last week's decline the bounce should fail here. Otherwise it will probably follow the RUT to new highs. Test the short side here but keep your stop tight. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 1:07:53 PM

$/yen 105.79 +1.06% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 1:05:57 PM

VXN.X 21.11 -5.08% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 1:05:30 PM

Swing trade rounde up alert! ... with an additional NVIDIA NVDA Sep $22.50 Call (UVA-IX) at the offer of $3.20.

NVDA $23.37 -0.89% ...

Brings position to 1/2.

James Brown : 5/29/2008 1:03:27 PM

The railroad stocks are back at their highs. The DJUSRR index is up 1.7% and about one point away from its all-time high from May 19th around 646.

Norfolk (NSC) +3.8% is leading the charge.
Burlington (BNI) +1.7% is back above the $110 level.
CSX Corp. (CSX) +0.9% lagging a little but still in the up trend.

James Brown : 5/29/2008 1:00:46 PM

Casino stocks are bouncing. The DJUSCA index is up 2.2%

Shares of WYNN are up 2.2% and rebounding from the $100 region.
LVS +1.8%
MGM +3.0% but still in a down trend!

James Brown : 5/29/2008 12:57:43 PM

On CNBC... discussing the correction in commodities from the recent highs.
Wheat -41%
Rice -24%
Soy -11%
Corn -4% (doesn't seem like much of a "correction")

James Brown : 5/29/2008 12:55:36 PM

Dress Barn (DBRN) is out performing today after reporting earnings. The company beat estimates by 13 cents. Shares gapped open above resistance at its exponential 200-dma and the $14.50 level. DBRN currently +9.2%.

James Brown : 5/29/2008 12:54:05 PM

TiVo Inc. (TIVO) is up 4.9% after reporting earnings this morning. The company beat estimates but missed the revenue number and guided lower. The stock is bouncing from short-term support near $8.00.

Keene Little : 5/29/2008 12:53:15 PM

With the RUT now having rallied to a new high, above the May 19th high, it requires greater caution about thinking short. We could easily get a non-confirmation of the RUT high (by the others not following) but it's definitely a bullish sign here that can't be ignored.

James Brown : 5/29/2008 12:49:24 PM

Oil isn't the only commodity falling today.

GSG commodity ETF (tracks 24 different commodities) is down 2.4%
DBC commodity ETF is down 3.0%
GSP (oil dominant commodity ETF) -2.3%
JJA (agriculture commodity ETF) -2.6% and breaking down under its exponential 200-dma.

Keene Little : 5/29/2008 12:48:41 PM

The DOW has now rallied up to its 38% retracement at 12718. SPX is reaching for its 50% retracement at 1407. It just achieved a Fib projection at 1405 where the 2nd leg up in its bounce off Monday's low is 162% of the 1st leg up. The combination of Fib resistance levels for the DOW and SPX warn of potential reversal but so far today's rally has been stronger than I expected to see so I'm staying cautious about shorting it.

Keene Little : 5/29/2008 12:43:22 PM

Interesting that the semiconductors are not participating in today's rally. But the current consolidation in the semis has the potential to resolve to the upside, especially if SMH can continue to hold above its 200-dma, currently at 32.49 (today's low is 32.47). But after dropping back below the top of a parallel up-channel from January that's where SMH is currently struggling: Link

At this point the daily chart is a coin toss--it takes a break above its May high at 34.03 to point to a move to at least the $35 area and a break below its May 23rd low at 31.58 to say we've seen a top in the semis. Based on my belief that the current bounce over the past few days is only correcting last week's decline I think SMH will head lower. I just don't know if it will bounce a little higher first. There's a gap down on May 20th so perhaps that gap will get closed first (33.36).

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 12:36:38 PM

iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) $74.53 +1.18% ... once again probes its 200-day SMA and correlative and conventional 50% retracement.

Keene Little : 5/29/2008 12:27:20 PM

The small consolidation near the highs suggests more upside still.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 12:25:29 PM

Eur/$ 1.5508 -0.83% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 12:23:26 PM

Stop on the FXE NAKED CALLS goes $159.00. Targeting "poof"

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 12:19:06 PM

Swing trade sell NAKED Calls Alert! ... for two (2) of the CurrencyShares Euro FXE June $157 Calls (FXE-FA) at the bid of $0.80.

FXE $155.54 -0.86% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 12:14:58 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/29/2008 12:12:06 PM

Updating the RUT 60-min chart that I had posted last night, it has rallied above the top of the rising wedge I had drawn in so that's not the correct interpretation: Link . The top of a parallel up-channel from Friday is currently near the May 19th high (747.94) but first it has to get through the broken uptrend line from March through the April 15th low (where price has stalled). If it's able to rally to a new high I see upside potential to the 760-762 area.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 12:00:01 PM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $49.70 +0.91%, INTC $23.14 -1.40%, CSCO $26.19 +2.50%, XLE $86.04 -1.67%, SPY $140.28 +0.70%, ADM $39.67 -0.42%, MSFT $28.51 +1.17%, QID $37.87 -1.66%, ORCL $22.80 +0.04%

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 11:51:28 AM

Oil and water? Or oil and airlines ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 11:51:12 AM

USO $103.91 -1.89% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 11:50:42 AM

CAL $13.83 +2.06% ... now reversing course.

Keene Little : 5/29/2008 11:45:49 AM

NDX looks like it's consolidating before moving higher (maybe up to its 2027 Fib projection) while the DOW looks like its chopping slowly higher now as it puts in an ending pattern. Tough call right here--tempted to short it (tried but got right back out when it didn't drop) but I can see a little more upside potential. If it suddenly breaks down again I'll look to short the next bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 11:40:45 AM

PBT $22.42 -2.13% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 11:40:17 AM

IYS-RV $2.30 x $2.40

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 11:40:01 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $104.22 -1.66% ... probes its May 20 June futures expiration closing benchmark.

Linda Piazza : 5/29/2008 11:34:54 AM

I'm about to shut down the computer, but I wanted to give a last take on what I see happening. So far, the OEX "breakout" above 30-minute resistance is not convincing and not confirmed. That resistance now spans from 637.64-638.42 on 30-minute closes. The SPX is doing a little better, but it's supposed breakout isn't particularly convincing yet, either.

If they can maintain traction, however, and produce more convincing breakouts, the OEX has a potential upside target (and resistance) now at about 642.80 and the SPX, at 1406.77. Both are just deeper into the potential resistance zone on the daily chart, so I'd keep those profit-protecting plans updated.

My overall take as of Tuesday was that we might see some chopping around but to be particularly watchful for stalling or rollover potential at the zones being approached now on many indices. Such stalling could occur over several days, of course, if it's going to occur, or a rollover could occur immediately, if it's going to occur. It's possible that indices could break through these lower levels of resistance and head to the next ones, which would be near 650-651 for the OEX. But I'm not sure that the support testing is through and so I wouldn't be surprised if, either sometime this week or next week, there's not a retest of the May lows.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 11:31:34 AM

Last year, for the week ended May 25th, crude oil inputs into refineries was 15.615M Bbls/day.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 11:29:46 AM

EIA: Weekly crude oil inputs into refineries rost by 377,000 Bbls/day to 15.46M bbls/day.

Linda Piazza : 5/29/2008 11:23:45 AM

If the OEX can maintain this breakout attempt into its next 30-minute close, not a given yet, then its next potential upside target is 642.78. However, I first would not assume that it's going to maintain its breakout attempt and second would be careful about profit-protecting measures from here on out. This isn't new information but is based on what I was saying Tuesday night when writing Wraps and looking at charts of indices. For example, I warned Tuesday night that if "the SPX should bounce, watch for resistance on daily closes near the converging 30- and 10-sma's, now stretching from about 1394-1404. I'm not sure the support test is finished." Those averages are now at 1396.95 and 1402.31 for the SPX, with the SPX already hitting the 30-sma. For the OEX, those averages are a bit higher, at 641.04-642.58. The danger, then, is that the SPX is already moving into a strong resistance zone on the daily chart, and the OEX, underperforming by some measures lately, might not even get there if the SPX were to stall or roll down. So, just keep your profit-protecting plans in place.

Keene Little : 5/29/2008 11:20:25 AM

As the DOW approaches its Fib projection at 12648 I'm seeing some very short term bearish divergences at the new high. SPX is also nearing its 38% retracement at 1399. I'm looking this over carefully for a short play here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 11:18:29 AM

EIA: Weekly Nat. Gas storage showed a build of 87 Bcf to 1.70 Bcf

Jane Fox : 5/29/2008 11:12:48 AM

The way to look at these charts is the relationship between the AD Volume (middle chart) and the VIX (bottom Chart), they need to be moving in opposite directions and if one is making new highs or lows then the other needs to doing the exact opposite.

The top chart is the AD volume ratio and to support the other two it needs to be flatlined or moving in the same direction as the AD volume. If it is making new daily highs or lows that is all the better but it certainly does not need to be. If the ratio is moving opposite to the AD volume then you have cause for concern, not worry just concern.

As you can see these charts support the bulls and there is not need for concern let alone worry. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 11:06:27 AM

EIA will likely show that the #Days crude oil supply falls to 20.7 from last week's 21.5.

Linda Piazza : 5/29/2008 11:05:49 AM

Resistance held into the last 30-minute period. Now OEX bulls want to see the 15- and 30-minute 9-ema's hold as support if there's a pullback. That's at 635.90 for the 15-minute version and 635.15 for the 30-minute one.

Jane Fox : 5/29/2008 11:01:54 AM

The VIX and the RVX are supporting ES's and ER2's new daily highs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 11:01:30 AM

Lazard Ltd. (LAZ) $37.53 +2.68% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 11:00:35 AM

EIA: ULS Diesel (0-15 PPM Sulfer) rose by 1.57M Bbls to 68.95M Bbls.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 10:59:44 AM

EIA: Reformulated gasoline stockpile rose by 39,000 Bbls to 1.99M Bbls.

Linda Piazza : 5/29/2008 10:59:31 AM

The 30-minute 9-ema held as support, of course, encouraging bulls to believe that the OEX would be up for another retest of that potentially significant resistance. That 9-ema is now at 634.53, but you can also gear down to the 15-minute version now to watch for shorter-term guidance althoug the 30-minute version is more reliable. The 15-minute version is at 635.46, with bulls wanting to see that hold now as support on 15-minute closes.

As I type, the OEX challenges and even pushes a little above that resistance, but the 30-minute period is far from over, of course. Bulls prefer to see this 30-minute period close above 637.67, at least, and preferably above 638.35. If not, the resistance has held into this 30-minute period.

Keene Little : 5/29/2008 10:56:10 AM

The DOW is lagging SPX in its bounce off Monday's low. The top of its little parallel up-channel and a Fib projection for two equal legs up from Monday is at 12648.

Keene Little : 5/29/2008 10:53:09 AM

New highs but will they hold? The little whipsaw price action this morning may have finished a small 4th wave correction in the leg up from yesterday's low. That would make the current spike back up to a new high as the 5th wave and it's hitting some Fib targets now (SPX 1397 for equality with the 1st wave). Therefore we could get another reversal back down and the start of at least a deeper retracement. Slightly higher at 1399.12 is the 38% retracement of last week's decline.

Jane Fox : 5/29/2008 10:46:27 AM

Crude's all time high is $135.09 made on May 22nd.

Jane Fox : 5/29/2008 10:40:45 AM

Before the report Crude was trading at 128.98 and after the report it jumped to a high of 133.12.

Keene Little : 5/29/2008 10:40:42 AM

Now trying to reverse back up again. It's been a pretty whippy market this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 10:39:21 AM

Swing trade call exit alert! blow out the one (1) Continental Airlines CAL Jun $12.50 Call (CAL-FV) at the bid of $1.60.

CAL $13.25 -2.21% ...

Jane Fox : 5/29/2008 10:39:17 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude supplies dropped by 8.8 million barrels to 311.6 million for the week ended May 23, according to the Energy Department Wednesday. The drop was due to temporary delays in crude-oil tanker off-loadings on the Gulf Coast, the report said. Motor gasoline supplies fell 3.2 million barrels to 206.2 million barrels. Distillate stocks were up 1.6 million barrels at 109.4 million barrels. Refinery utilization was unchanged at 87.9 % of capacity. Following the news, July crude was last up $1.87 at $132.90 a barrel.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 10:37:12 AM

Stop on the PBT will be $21.50. Target $26.00

Linda Piazza : 5/29/2008 10:37:06 AM

The OEX approached that potentially significant Keltner resistance on 30-minute closes (now 637.43-638.29, but slightly different levels earlier) and has now pulled back sharply. That's the level at which I've been suggesting that bulls have their profit-protecting plans ready. The OEX is approaching potential Keltner support on 30-minute closes down to 633.36, and bulls who hope to see the OEX rise again to retest that resistance want to see that hold on 30-minute closes. For the SPX, that support extends down to 1386.83 but the 9-ema is 1388.75. Resistance is 1395.02-1396.23.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 10:36:39 AM

Swing trade long alert! for 1/2 position in the Permian Basin Trust (PBT) the offer of $22.96. LIMIT $23.00.

Linda Piazza : 5/29/2008 10:34:27 AM

The TRAN punched to a new high, following not leading other indices, and was immediately knocked back, hard. The TRAN sometimes reverses course after the crude inventories are released, so remain watchful. The TRAN is 5293.82 as I type. Remember that you want the TRAN to be going the same direction as your OEX, Dow, and SPX trades as much as possible, for corroboration.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 10:33:42 AM

IEA: Crude Oil stockpiles plunge by 8.883 million barrels.

Jane Fox : 5/29/2008 10:32:57 AM

$132.00 now

Keene Little : 5/29/2008 10:32:55 AM

SPX is now up at the top of its little parallel up-channel from Monday, at a Fib projection near 1395 and into the 30-min 100/130 moving averages so be careful if you're long. Starting to drop back down sharply as I type.

Jane Fox : 5/29/2008 10:32:38 AM

Crude market really liked the report, Crude has spiked to $131.80 from 129.50.

Jane Fox : 5/29/2008 10:31:40 AM

Crude Inventories report out at 10:30 today.

Linda Piazza : 5/29/2008 10:25:29 AM

The TRAN is rising into that retest of yesterday's 5335.68 high again, with the TRAN at 5333.67 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 5/29/2008 10:24:42 AM

The OEX holds that support mentioned in my 10:09:30 post into the 15-minute close and bounces now to a new high. So far, so good, but remember that it's rising into potentially strong resistance on 30-minute closes, at 637.45-638.35. I've already mentioned the other types of resistance in that zone and cautioned bulls to watch for stalling or rollover potential there, if reached. The VXO, the old VIX derived from OEX options, did drop to a new low to match the equity new high, but the VIX has not, so that's something to keep in mind.

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 10:24:35 AM

Most Actives ... SPY $139.53 +0.16%, QQQQ $49.44 +0.38%, KOSN $5.44 +229%, INTC $22.98 -2.08%, CFC $5.43 +9.03%, ESLR $10.45 -7.19%, ORCL $22.59 -0.87%, XLF $24.92 +1.13%, FVRL $0.09 -40%, FCX $114.48 -4.35%

Jeff Bailey : 5/29/2008 10:21:25 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/29/2008 10:20:25 AM

The VIX isn't showing anything alarming for bulls yet. It rose, but rose into potential resistance after breaking through support this morning. If it gets above about 19.23 and stays above that, then bulls might pay attention, though. It's 19.08 as I type. The RVX, the RUT's volatility index, is near its day's low and just, as I typed, dropped to a new low below yesterday's, so it's not showing any alarming signs for bulls, either.

Linda Piazza : 5/29/2008 10:09:30 AM

There's potential support for the OEX at 637.30 on 15-minute closes and then lower, near 633.20-633.67 on 15- and 30-minute closes. Bulls want that to hold or else the whole morning's breakout is questioned.

James Brown : 5/29/2008 10:04:29 AM

The shipping stocks are mostly up today but the new IPO, Safe Bulkers Inc., a Greek shipping company, had a little trouble with their price. They planned on selling 10 million shares in the $20-22 per share range but it priced at $19 a share. SB is currently up 5 cents to $19.05.

Linda Piazza : 5/29/2008 10:03:12 AM

Be careful here, bulls. The RLX has produced a small-bodied doji-like candle for this 15-minute period, after the first period's strong run-up. It was at this time the previous two mornings that the RLX began a strong pullback. The TRAN has not yet produced a new high above yesterday's. The A/D line is pausing beneath a descending trendline off the Tuesday and Wednesday morning highs and even pulling back just a little.

It's too early to say the pattern from those mornings will definitely repeat, but when you recognize a pattern and it begins to set up the same, you better at least pay attention and guard your profits.

James Brown : 5/29/2008 10:00:43 AM

Joy Global (JOYG) is showing some volatility today. The company reported earnings this morning. Management said that the fundamentals have never been stronger. JOYG spiked to $82.38 earnings this morning but is trading down around $79.61 (+2.2%).

Rival BUCY is showing a similar failed rally pattern.

Linda Piazza : 5/29/2008 9:57:56 AM

I will be leaving to go out of town in about an hour. I'll keep posting as long as possible.

Linda Piazza : 5/29/2008 9:56:47 AM

What are other momentum-type indices doing? The MID climbs toward potential resistance at 877.75, but it's produced a new high above yesterday's. Its climb is narrowing into a wedge shape that's not usually the healthiest way to climb, but it's still climbing. The RLX was a big mover both Tuesday and yesterday mornings, but pulled back sharply both mornings, so I'm not sure how much credence to give its early morning push higher. It looks as if it's butting up against both trendline and (soon) Keltner resistance, from its current 403.74 up to the Keltner level at 406.32. Both the BIX and the BKX are rebounding, although both remain under descending trendlines that began to be established 5/22. The BIX, from its current 226 up to 228.28, will be testing significant Keltner and trendline resistance.

So, short-term, these indices I use as indicator indices are supporting the climb but some are currently or soon butting up against strong resistance. I'd keep the USDJPY, the TRAN and the RLX on your radar screens and be wary of further topside if you see them losing too much steam.

Keene Little : 5/29/2008 9:55:42 AM

We should soon see price start to consolidate for a couple of hours before pressing higher again. After the push to a new high is when I'll be looking for evidence of topping and a short play setup.

Linda Piazza : 5/29/2008 9:51:18 AM

The TRAN is not supporting what's happening with the SPX and OEX. It has not reached a new high today. We're again seeing some mixed signals. I don't think the SPX and OEX are going to move too high if the TRAN doesn't at least corroborate what they're doing, but I don't think they're going to fall too far as long as the USDJPY hangs in there, either.

Linda Piazza : 5/29/2008 9:49:30 AM

Like the TRAN, the OEX is moving up into a test of yesterday's high. That high was 635.27, and as I began typing, the OEX punched above it. The next Keltner target and potential resistance level is now 637.47-638.38. Since this corresponds with other resistance in the 637-639 zone (72-ema, 5/09 intraday low, etc.), we have corroboration that this should be a place to watch for stalling or rollover potential, so if you're in bullish trades, you know to guard profits there. We'll have to see for you want-to-be bears if there's anything supporting your interests.

I warned earlier this morning that the USDJPY was going counter to the futures' values, which was cause to question the futures' action since the USDJPY usually leads. The USDJPY is still higher, but still poised as the descending trendline off the 5/02 high and not yet either breaking out or pulling back too strongly.

Keene Little : 5/29/2008 9:48:18 AM

NDX is wasting no time heading for the top of its up-channel from Friday's low (near 2020 currently). It will need some stair-stepping higher to finish the wave count for the leg up from yesterday so it's way too early to think short. Maybe this afternoon.

James Brown : 5/29/2008 9:48:12 AM

Shaw Group (SGR) is showing strength today. The stock is up 1.2% and nearing resistance. A breakout might be an entry point for the bulls. chart: Link

Jane Fox : 5/29/2008 9:42:20 AM

When Gold decides to move it usually does not fool around. It has now retraced 61.80% of the rally off the May 2nd lows. Link

Jane Fox : 5/29/2008 9:41:02 AM

Crude is showing some weakness today and trading in the $128.00/bl range. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/29/2008 9:40:44 AM

The TRAN is approaching its 5335.68 high from yesterday, but testing potential resistance while it's doing so. Bulls want to see a 15-minute close above 5309.20. The TRAN is now 5319.39, down from its earlier high of the day of 5326.35.

Keene Little : 5/29/2008 9:40:35 AM

The metals got hit pretty hard in overnight trading. Gold is down $20 (-2.3%) and silver is down -3.3%. Even oil is down -2.3% this morning. The US dollar is back up and the euro is down so they're in synch with the moves in commodities this morning.

James Brown : 5/29/2008 9:40:27 AM

Adobe Systems (ADBE) is inching higher after having its price target upgraded to $50 this morning. Currently $43.

Jane Fox : 5/29/2008 9:39:31 AM

Futures have not reacted too strongly to the economic data out this morning. and are now climbing again. I see the Russell 2000 futures (ER2) is almost back to its overnight highs. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/29/2008 9:39:09 AM

A/D line zooming now, but still within the range it occupied most of yesterday and the first 15-minute period has not concluded. It's +195 now, which, while "zooming," is still not particularly strong. No conclusion yet.

Jane Fox : 5/29/2008 9:38:02 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose modestly last week as the number of continuing claims stayed at a level not seen in four years, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

Rising 4,000 to 372,000 in the week ended May 24, first-time claims are still in the range that suggests a weak labor market. A year ago, initial claims were at 310,000.

The four-week average of initial claims, which measures the underlying unemployment trends, fell to 370,500, down 2,500.

That's still much higher than a year ago, when the four-week average was at 305,000.

Meanwhile, continuing unemployment claims increased in the latest week, a sign that displaced workers are having a hard time finding new jobs.

Linda Piazza : 5/29/2008 9:37:54 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: The A/D line opened in the lower or bearish half of the 15-minute Keltner channels. It's rising now to test resistance that's gathered from about -100 up to +10. It's -159 as I type. Essentially, it's still within the range that it kept most of yesterday, so we're not getting much information except that it's not particularly strong now. Watch as this resistance is tested.

Keene Little : 5/29/2008 9:37:12 AM

Equity futures were fairly choppy last night and looked a lot like yesterday's trading. That doesn't give us much to go on as far as direction. But the overnight high, at 4:00 AM, was a new high above yesterday's so perhaps we'll see at least a retest of those highs. For NQ it was 2015.25 and it's already back in the green after the cash market opened. The high for ES was 1396 so about 7 points higher here.

Jane Fox : 5/29/2008 9:37:08 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy grew at a sluggish pace in the first quarter, held back by the biggest slump in housing in 26 years and the first decline in final domestic sales in 17 years, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

The nation's real gross domestic product increased at a 0.9% annual rate in the first three months of the year, slightly faster than the 0.6% rate originally estimated a month ago. The revision matched the consensus expectation of economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

GDP increased 0.6% in the fourth quarter. The economy has grown 2.5% in the past year.

The government's initial revision to GDP for the first three months of 2008 showed a better mix of growth. Compared with the first estimate, imports were lower, inventories were lower and business investment in structures was stronger. Personal incomes were also growing significantly faster than first believed -- a factor that could keep the economy out of a technical recession.

James Brown : 5/29/2008 9:37:01 AM

I don't see the Euro ETF (FXE) trading yet...

James Brown : 5/29/2008 9:36:25 AM

The Japanese Yen ETF (FXY) is down 0.4% to $94.95 on strength in the U.S. dollar this morning.

Linda Piazza : 5/29/2008 9:31:23 AM

SPX futures are lower, but the USDJPY is higher. Those two are at cross purposes, as they usually head the same direction. The USDJPY is in fact testing resistance from the triangle it's been forming since 5/02/08 with the topof that triangle perhaps at about 105.30 and the USDJPY now at 105.17. Watch now for either a sustained breakout or a sharp pullback from this test, as it may give us some guidance on the SPX and OEX.

The OEX ended yesterday jammed up against potential resistance on 15-minute closes extending up to just under 635. Next potential support on 15-minute closes is at 632.59. If it should break through this resistance instead of turning down in accordance with what we've seen in futures, it's next upside target is near 637.30-638.61 where potential next resistance lies on 30-minute closes.

James Brown : 5/29/2008 9:29:05 AM

Expedia (EXPE) was making headlines yesterday after speculation surfaced that management might try to take the company private. The stock soared yesterday from $22 to almost $24 before settling at $22.75.

Today the stock is up again, around $23.50 this morning, after being upgraded and given a $30 price target.

I will be curious to see if this has any affect on shares of PCLN.

James Brown : 5/29/2008 9:25:38 AM

Google (GOOG) is trading higher this morning. Shares closed at $568 and they're currently trading up about $7 and breaking out above its 200-dma.

Fueling the move are a couple of news items. First was some positive comscore data showing an improvement in GOOG's paid-click business. Second was a positive report from a Wall Street analyst who reiterated her buy rating and raised her price target from $600 to $635.
The news article I read also happened to mention that a Piper Jaffray analyst has an $819 price target on GOOG.

James Brown : 5/29/2008 9:19:40 AM

A big winner today will be Kosan Biosciences (KOSN). Before the bell it was announced that Bristol-Myers Squibb will buy the company for $5.50 a share. KOSN is trading near $5.40 after closing at $1.65 yesterday.

James Brown : 5/29/2008 9:17:04 AM

Mexican cement producer Cemex (CX) is inching lower ahead of the bell. J.P.Morgan just downgraded the stock to a "neutral". The stock has some support in the $28-29 zone so it may not fall very far.

James Brown : 5/29/2008 9:14:22 AM

Qualcomm (QCOM) is not seeing any reaction in the pre-market hours after being upgraded and seeing its price target raised to $60. The stock closed at $48.32 yesterday.

James Brown : 5/29/2008 9:02:32 AM

Big moves in Japan's stock market...

Asian market update...

Chinese Shanghai Composite... -1.66%
Hong Kong Hang Seng ........ +0.55%
Japan's NIKKIE 225 Index.... +3.0%

Not much movement in Europe.
European market update...

French CAC 40 .... +0.01%
German DAX ...... -0.05%
English FTSE 100.. -0.02%

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