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Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2008 2:52:34 AM

Think of how small some nations land mass is. How limited their resources and how dependent they are on others.

That last paragraph is most likely what brought on the weakness in the NZD.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2008 2:48:13 AM

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Policy Statement Link

Released at 05:00 PM EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2008 2:43:31 AM

Ah, that's why ... Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2008 2:41:20 AM

Currencies rather quiet. While not a heavy weight, NZD/$ ... 0.7652 -1.85% getting hit. Selling took place at the reset of 05:00 PM EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2008 2:34:18 AM

Thursday's Global Economic Calendar Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2008 2:28:34 AM

Oil Prices Drop Below $122 a Barrel ... AP Story Link

James noted a couple of weeks ago the subsidies of gasoline/diesel by foreign governments. Some addition color here.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2008 2:07:14 AM

McCain'08 Energy Policy Link and Climate Change Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2008 2:03:23 AM

Obama'08 Energy & Environment Policy Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2008 1:57:36 AM

EIA U.S. Weekly Refinery data I track Link

#Days Supply equation uses Crude Oil Inputs (not Gross Inputs). Will note that there was an additional 6,000 barrels/day of capacity added to the nation's refiners.

At bottom, the 4-week average of Crude Oil Inputs has risen to 15.35 million barrels/day. Over a 7-day period, this would equate to roughly 107.4 million barrels/week.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2008 1:47:49 AM

Some of the various EIA U.S. Weekly Inventory data I track Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2008 1:39:31 AM

Remember TSO's CEO saying last week they have been EXPORTING diesel from their US refineries due to stronger PRICING in overseas markets.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2008 1:35:37 AM

EIA's This Week In Petroleum Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2008 1:15:09 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2008 12:56:13 AM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 6/5/2008 12:54:51 AM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

The stock market is either perched on the edge of a cliff or will get another leg up to create a larger correction of the decline from last week. As mentioned during the day on Wednesday I am bearish against the Wednesday highs. NDX remains the most bullish so if that heads to a new high first, it will be a heads up for the others which could follow (might not). Its 60-min chart shows the key levels--a break above or below them should indicate the direction to trade: Link

The DOW broke marginally below Tuesday's low and a continuation lower on Thursday could usher in some strong selling. But there are hints of bullish divergence at the new lows and that's a warning that we could be in a larger corrective pattern that is going to have the market rallying back up. The bottom of a potential descending wedge is near DOW 12316 tomorrow morning so the bears want a hard break below 12300 while the bulls want to see a break above the downtrend line from May 19th, currently near 12470 for a run back up to at least the downtrend line from October, near 12570. 60-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2008 12:12:31 AM

Eur/$ daily interval bar chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 11:54:11 PM

Here's a table of data I keep that compares some of the EIA WEEKLY U.S. inventory data, such as # Days Crude Oil Supply, the USO's price close for the week ended, the DXY (weighted basket of currencies vs. $), the Eur/$ at each Friday close Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 11:44:43 PM

Swing trade NAKED Call Lower stop alert! ... for the two (2) Euro CurrencyShares FXE Jun $157 Calls (FXE-FA) to $158 in the underlying. (At Thursday's open)

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 11:27:15 PM

Eur/$ 1.5394 -0.30% ... slips to its 05/08/08 "doji" close.

OI Technical Staff : 6/4/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 7:07:11 PM

Brazil saying decision to raise its Selic rate to 12.25% was due to wholesale and consumer price increases and robust economic trends.

Consumer prices continued to advance at a swift pace through mid-May, rising 0.56%, due largely to food prices. As a result, the first half of the month brought 12-month inflation to 5.25%/year, which is above the government's official year end target of 4.5%. At the same time, the general price index more than double in May to 1.61% from 0.69% the previous month due to accelerating wholesale prices.

Industrial production continued to surge, jumping 10.1% in April compared with the same month a year ago. Trailing 12-month showed industrial production up 7.0%. Capacity utilization continues to hover at all-time high of 83.2%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 6:57:19 PM

MBIA Inc. (MBI) $5.63 -15.84% ... Boomberg TV reporting the mortgage insurer not seeking to raise capital right now. Insurer says it can't raise capital until Moody's standards clear.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 6:54:41 PM

ABC News reporting that Hillary Clinton will drop out of presidency race on Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 6:52:34 PM

$/BRL 1.629 -0.18%

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 6:48:29 PM

Brazil Raises Key Interest Rate 50bp to 12.25% from 11.75%.

Keene Little : 6/4/2008 4:14:31 PM

I think you're definitely onto something Linda with that TED spread. The stock market has followed the yield spread and each time it widens the stock market tumbles. I thought you did a great job with your Traders Corner article last weekend on that subject. And interesting you say the market's floor feels unstable and shifting. The title of tonight's newsletter is "Shifting Sands".

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 4:08:59 PM

Actually, Keene, the markets' floor feels very unstable and shifting, doesn't it? That's why I'm watching the TED spread so closely and why I'll be looking closely at outstanding corporate paper on Thursday when that comes out. I'm never sure when it's all just going to cave in from the weight of the revelations being made and still to be made, but I was basing what I'd seen on two previous days of springs up from support. I actually thought we could get a small-bodied green candle today as easily as a doji type one.

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 4:03:44 PM

For you futures traders, the ECB and Bank of England both make rate hike decisions early tomorrow morning, before our markets open. Plan accordingly as their efforts can impact currency moves.

Keene Little : 6/4/2008 3:55:42 PM

With this bounce into the close it's looking like Linda's going to get the doji day she's been predicting. If we were to get an up day tomorrow that would create at least a short-term buy signal with a morning star candlestick pattern. Since I'm short I obviously don't want to see that happen. For safety sake I don't think anyone should be taking a futures short home tonight unless your stop is high enough to withstand some overnight gyrations and at the same time no higher than breakeven.

James Brown : 6/4/2008 3:51:38 PM

Forgive me if this has already been pointed out but yesterday's low in the S&P 500 looks like a test of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its March-May run. Now I wouldn't open bullish positions on this observation but it's interesting. Chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 3:51:16 PM

The A/D line bounced instead of dropped. We still, so far, have a small-bodied near-doji on the OEX's daily chart, so my previous comments still apply.

Keene Little : 6/4/2008 3:50:46 PM

If CME doesn't bounce soon before proceeding lower I don't think 338 will hold: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 3:49:44 PM

I've been watching the TED spread all day today, with the TED spread being a measure of default risk in the markets (difference or spread in the U.S. treasuries and LIBOR) as it's been showing some troublesome tendencies. Basically, it's been testing descending trendline support that's bounced it ever since last fall, with a widening TED spread not being good for equities. To me, it's a worrisome thing to have it test this support and then move back up above 1.00. The former range for the TED spread, before all these credit problems, was about 0.3 - 0.5 or thirty to fifty basis points. I worried that the news today might send it above 1.00 again. So far, that hasn't happened. My quotes are delayed, but it's currently down 0.001 from yesterday, although it has at times been higher, bouncing up to 0.85 several times today. I'll have an article about the TED spread in this weekend's Trader's Corner. I'm no expert but I'll tell you the little that I do know about it.

Keene Little : 6/4/2008 3:46:27 PM

The bounce off the low continues to look corrective and therefore I have no problem holding my short overnight. It would be giving up a lot if futures rally overnight but I would not want my stop lower than the 2:00 PM highs. That's for a swing trade (dare I say position trade?). If you're day trading I would take profits off the table before the close and reposition on a bounce tomorrow morning.

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 3:44:53 PM

It looks to me as if the A/D line could, not will, drop toward -521 or maybe even -672. We're getting market-on-close orders now so that might change the chart setup, but if the A/D line does drop to that level, it's likely to carry the OEX back to test that Keltner support and day's low again.

James Brown : 6/4/2008 3:45:48 PM

Just a thought... if you think the market will see another big sell-off in the next few weeks you could speculate with some out of the money July or August calls on the Volatility index (VIX). Between 20 and 45 you have strikes available every 2.50.

Any serious sell-off would probably see a spike to the 30 level (or higher).

James Brown : 6/4/2008 3:41:17 PM

Hmmm... the intraday rally in Goldman Sachs (GS) has rolled over under its descending 10-dma. Not a good sign for the broker-dealers.

James Brown : 6/4/2008 3:39:10 PM

HESS Corp. (HES) , an oil company, is breaking down to a new three-week low under short-term support in the $118.50 zone. This might be a bearish entry point but then again the stock is already down more than $10 from Monday's highs. If HES ever nears the 100-dma again expect a bounce.

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 3:34:41 PM

Barring a collapse below 622 by the close, the OEX may very well end the day today with a doji or near-doji at the bottom of its recent downturn. As you know from standard technical analysis lore, that's likely to result in either further consolidation or else a bounce attempt. We can't discount the collapse-at-any moment possibility or the 614.50-ish potential downside target derived from Keltner charts, but if you're in bearish positions, you should consider the possibility of an attempt at steadying or a bounce attempt that might be in evidence tomorrow. If you're in a long-term bearish trade from the May high and have lots of profit under your belt, your reaction might be different than if you'd bought JUN puts at about 1:45 this afternoon, intending a short-term trade. Whichever type of trade you're in, don't let a profit turn to a loss.

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 3:17:48 PM

The buy-the-dippers are still helping to steady the OEX, but we don't know if they'll ultimately be successful. The support on the daily chart is nearer 622. However, on that 15-minute chart, the OEX looks a bit stronger than it did the last time it tested this price level, so consider the possibility of a punch up toward 626.94.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 3:12:00 PM

Going to shut down and reload browser softare. Back before the close.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 3:11:24 PM

USO -1.83%

UGA -4.85%

UNG +1.22%

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 3:10:21 PM

DUG $30.14 +1.34% ... inches back green.

OIX -2.17% while OIH giving back some gains, now up 0.43%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 3:08:38 PM

Bond market closed with treasuries relatively quiet until a late burst of selling in longer-dated maturities.

The 13-week note's yield finished down 0.5 bp at 1.805%, while the shorter-dated 5-year yield rose 2.2 bp to 3.21%. The benchmark 10-year yield rose 4.2 bp to 3.940%, while the longest-dated 30-year yield finished up 6.3 bp at 4.685%.

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 3:06:10 PM

OEX potential support now near 625.05 did not quite hold into that 15-minute period, but it wasn't soundly broken, either, and it was joined by potential support at yesterday's 624.46 low. There's been (very tentative so far) bullish price/RSI divergence on that 15-minute chart and the de rigueur buy-the-equal-low attempt. Again, this got a little lower than I thought it would but not lower than I thought it could, if that makes sense, but the possibility of a bounce up back up toward 627.30 now exists. I'd watch for rollover potential there, if it is approached and certainly at 629.46, if that's approached. A further drop toward 622 or even 614.50 can't be precluded.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 3:02:58 PM

VIX.X 21.21 +4.79% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 3:02:35 PM

RIO-UG currently $2.44 x $2.48

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 3:01:55 PM

Companhia Vale dos Rio Doce (RIO) $37.19 -3.45% ... testing near-term bar chart trend (see yesterday's MM).

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 2:54:34 PM

The previous post gave a viewpoint as derived from the daily chart, but I want to tell bears that there's potential OEX support on 15-minute closes at 625.10 and they need to have their profit-protecting plans in place as this level is tested.

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 2:52:00 PM

Pretty much, the OEX has done what I thought, beginning yesterday afternoon, that it might do. Now we approach the closing of the bond market, though, and the tenor of trading sometimes changes at that time, so I think we ought to start looking at end-of-day decisions. On the daily chart, the OEX has possibly significant resistance from 633.70-636.45 and then again at 643-643.30. It has begun establishing a descending price channel that's been in place since late April, with the bottom of that channel now roughly coinciding with potential daily Keltner support and current nearest target near 622.89. The channel points down toward a lower target currently at 614.27.

So, my overall view is that the OEX is somewhat likely to hit that 614.27 target, or the then-level of that target. That particular Keltner channel line is still rising fairly rapidly, about a point a day. It's possible that could happen at any time. If the 622.89 is approached today, though, that may well be support again.

But, even if the OEX is going to head down toward that target that's now just above 614, will it do so all at once? Maybe and maybe not. Slippery answer, I know, but it's the only one I have to give. The OEX could chop back and forth from the bottom of that channel up to test the descending 9-ema, now at 633.39 and likely resistance on daily closes.

Keene Little : 6/4/2008 2:47:52 PM

For those who are short and trying to hold for a position trade (as I raise my hand), stops should be placed just above the high near 2:00 PM. Any higher than that would likely mean we're either going to see a choppy sideways consolidation for a few days (in which case day trade the moves) or else we'll see the market head higher. In the meantime, stay short against those levels.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 2:42:16 PM

The Mens Wearhouse (MW) $20.39 -0.34% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 2:40:47 PM

Jos. A. Bank Clothiers (JOSB) $30.20 +11.13% ... surges on headline numbers.

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 2:39:22 PM

If the OEX continues its current climb, not a given, then watch for next resistance at 628.41 on 15-minute closes, but the strongest resistance currently appears to be at 629.89 on 15-minute closes.

Keene Little : 6/4/2008 2:36:13 PM

Once again, unless we're going to be stuck in a larger sideways consolidation between yesterday's low and today's high, we should see yesterday's low give way. There's a way to count this afternoon's decline as a correction so I'll be watching price action where we'll have two equal legs down. That's at DOW 12367 and SPX just achieved it at 1376.90. Take a little money off the table if you shorted near today's high.

James Brown : 6/4/2008 2:33:24 PM

Chiquita Brands (CQB) is up 2.3% and hitting new two-year highs. It is also hitting significant resistance. see chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 2:27:41 PM

The A/D line is now approaching potentially strong support at about -125. It has just punched to -82 and has now bounced to -17, so the possibility exists that this support could hold and could even bounce the A/D line. That's not a given, but if that happens, it could swing prices on indices such as the OEX and SPX higher with it. Although the OEX dipped a little lower than I thought it might, it's still possible that it could chug around mostly within those boundaries I laid out earlier, confounding those of us trying to guess next direction or those of you trying to capitalize on any moves.

James Brown : 6/4/2008 2:25:41 PM

Not showing any weakness is the Chilean version of Potash. This stock, SQM or Chemical & Mining Co. of Chile Inc., is soaring to new highs currently up 6% to 39.74.

Keene Little : 6/4/2008 2:22:21 PM

It looks like the "ripping to the downside" scenario is playing out.

James Brown : 6/4/2008 2:20:08 PM

The short squeeze continues in shares of Goodrich Petroleum (GDP). The stock got a couple of "strong buy" upgrades recently and shares just exploded higher. These are new all-time highs. The most recent data listed short interest at more than 28% of the 20 million-share float.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 2:19:32 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

James Brown : 6/4/2008 2:17:09 PM

There is no slow down in the rally (or the short squeeze) in shares of STEC Inc. (STEC), a Flash and DRAM memory storage device maker. The stock is up another 9.2% to a new all-time high. Today's rally is a breakout from a two-week trading range.

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 2:16:03 PM

Potential support for the OEX is not at 627.34 on 15-minute closes but it's weakening. Next support is 625.25-625.67.

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 2:15:15 PM

The MID was knocked straight back from its test of that trendline, not even hitting it this time but instead just approaching it. The MID is now 880.77, and a sustained drop below 880.48, sustained on 15-minute closes, might suggest a quick drop to 878.17.

Keene Little : 6/4/2008 2:04:48 PM

I should have added the possibility for a sideways choppy day as Linda is envisioning. That way I have all the bases covered (wink).

Keene Little : 6/4/2008 2:03:50 PM

So far SPX is either bullishly consolidating beneath its downtrend line from May 19th, currently near 1387, or else it's getting ready to rip to the downside. Buy a break above today's high and sell the breakdown.

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 2:00:01 PM

The MID is again approaching the rising trendline (broadening formation?) that it began establishing 5/29. That trendline is now about 883.90, with the MID now at 882.73. This MID has been a fairly good indicator index of late, so watch how it behaves at this resistance, just as I urged that you do so earlier today when it was first tested. If the MID can maintain values above today's 884.64 high, then it might have a chance of reaching toward the next short-term target of about 887.50, but I would be very careful about the potential for the MID to pop above the broadening formation's upper boundary and then pop right back down again, perhaps coincidentally bringing other indices down, too.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 1:56:33 PM

USO $99.17 -1.47% ... volume anemic. Yet to see trade at QUARTERLY R2 ($98.45)

MONTHLY Pivot $100.10 holding some sellers.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 1:53:30 PM

XOM $86.52 +0.95%

CVX $96.81-1.07%

COP $90.97 -0.74%

SLB $100.02 +1.05%

OXY $88.52 -1.27%

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 1:50:18 PM

Not uncommon when these two sectors trade like this on an intra-day basis, when broader market very bullish, or bearish. Tomorrow things should get in sinc with energy price direction and move could be large on the equity side.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 1:48:53 PM

OIX.X -1.10% ... OIH +1.36% ...

Keene Little : 6/4/2008 1:41:06 PM

Assuming the current bounce off the low just past 1:00 PM is just a correction of the decline from today's high, it should be followed by another leg down to new daily lows. At that time I'll be lowering my stop on my short play but not yet.

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 1:39:17 PM

As I noted in my 12:56:16 post, in line with my viewpoint for the day, I wouldn't be all that surprised if we haven't pretty much seen the high and the low of the day. A drop to 625.45-625.97 remains a possibility, although I was always leery of that downside target, and another climb toward 631.20 and maybe even 632.58 looks possible, but it may well be that values between about 627.80-631.20 mostly contain the OEX on 15-minute closes for the rest of the day. I wouldn't be surprised if that were to happen. I was fairly certain we'd have a punch higher today and fairly certain where we'd find resistance, but from this point on, the outcome of the day is rather cloudy in my viewpoint with almost anything in the realm of possibility.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 1:29:03 PM

Here's a montage of MBI from 02/09/08 Link

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 1:28:34 PM

If any of the rest of you are credit-spread or condor traders, you might want to take a look at your JUN positions, particularly the bull put spread ones, and see if you can exit for a small amount, locking in profit and eliminating that opex-week risk coming up in a couple of weeks. For example, if the OEX were to dive toward 614 the end of this week or next week and the SPX, to 1336, would your positions be okay? Would you be willing today to give back $0.10 or maybe even, depending on how risk averse you are, $0.15 of your original credit to lower some of your risk? The answer will be different for each of us. If you've been reading my posts long, you know my position. As of this week, I'm out of all JUN condors, and I've already exited some bear call spreads on the JUL cycle, although in that case, I have hopes that a big swing higher, if one should occur, will allow me to get back in those same trades. It gets tough to adjust those going-wrong condor positions when you're coming up on opex.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 1:24:44 PM

MBIA, Inc. (MBI) $5.82 -13.00% ... updated bar chart with newly added "red" bankrupt retracement Link

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 1:15:10 PM

The OEX has pushed that potential support that was at 628.22 down to 627.96. So far, it's holding on this close, but the OEX has to scramble back above the 15-minute 9-ema now at 629.20 to keep that support line from softening a bit and turning lower. The chart has set up the possibility of a decline toward deeper support now at 625.38-625.91, but I'm a little leery from this point forward of price targets.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 1:14:01 PM

The "conventional" retracement on MBI would be the cash infusion high of 01/24/08 by the hedge fund, to zero.

Remember the work we did regarding the warrants and convertible. That hedge fund needs to be short and measuring risk to $0.00.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 1:08:27 PM

Targets on MBI to the downside near-term would be $3.48, then $0.00.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 12:58:30 PM

Swing trade put alert! ... for two (2) of the MBIA Inc, MBI Aug. $5 Puts (MBI-TA) at the offer of $1.00.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 12:56:45 PM

ABK $2.55 -15.00% .... -97% for 52-weeks.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 12:56:22 PM

MBI and RND both showing -91% for 52-weeks as I type.

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 12:56:16 PM

My beginning view for the day was that the OEX might test overhead resistance but that you then needed to have your profit-protecting plans in place. However, the rest of the view for the day was that the day's candle might indeed turn out to be some sort of small-bodied candle showing a gain, so watch now for potential support from 628.22-628.43 to kick in. I'm not certain it will and think that eventually there's a pretty good chance that the OEX is going to move down toward a target now at about 614.40. However, "eventually" isn't the same as today, and a small-bodied candle showing a gain is perfectly in keeping with the pattern we've been seeing. You've had a couple of trade-worthy moves today, one up and one down, but I'm honestly not that sure whether you're going to get much more downside or much more upside, either. For now, watch potential resistance at 629.60 on 15-minute closes. If the drop toward the 628.22-628.43 level is going to happen, then bears need that to hold as resistance on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 12:55:57 PM

RDN $5.54 -6.26% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 12:55:31 PM

MBI $5.56 -16.89% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 12:49:11 PM

VIX.X 19.95 -1.43% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 12:48:43 PM

FRE $24.25 -1.34% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 12:48:28 PM

FNM $26.65 -0.26% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 12:48:03 PM

ABK $2.63 -12.33% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 12:47:50 PM

RDN $5.60 -5.24% ...

Keene Little : 6/4/2008 12:46:49 PM

The first good sign for a bearish play here will be a drop below this morning's low. That would leave the bounce off yesterday afternoon's low as just a corrective 3-wave bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 12:46:46 PM

MBIA Inc. (MBI) $6.07 -9.26% ... CNBC just reporting that Moody's may downgrade their debt.

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 12:46:33 PM

Potential support now on 15-minute closes for the OEX at 628.13 and maybe even a bit higher, near 628.65. Bulls do want this to hold, however, while bears want it to fail, or, if it does hold, want the OEX to then find resistance on 15-minute clsoes near 629.71.

Keene Little : 6/4/2008 12:45:41 PM

Stops on a short play should now be just above the last highs. Let this ride a bit before lowering your stop since the potential is for a good sized drop from here.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 12:44:52 PM

Sector Losers ... CBOE Oil -0.81%, Gold Bugs -0.78%, Pharmaceuticals -0.51%, Money Center Banks -0.38%, Regional Banks -0.14%

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 12:43:36 PM

Sector Winners ... Airlines +4.04%, Oil Service +2.20%, NASDAQ Telecom +2.10%, Internet +1.91%, Semiconductors +1.80%, Software +1.62%, Networking +1.40%

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 12:42:55 PM

It pays to watch S/R on the A/D line if you're trading the OEX or SPX. The A/D line is now turning back from that resistance that it's been testing although it has not yet broken through support now at about 447. That support is strong enough that I wouldn't be surprised to see the A/D line bounce from it again and maybe from just above it, nearer 500, into another resistance test before we know the whole score. The A/D line is now 575. Bulls should have just-in-case profit-protecting plans in place, however.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 12:39:28 PM

Yen Currency Shars (FXY) $94.92 (unch) ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 12:38:51 PM

iShares Japan (EWJ) $13.76 +1.47% ... perhaps the most "surprising" sign of technical strength for representation of a major global equity market. Highs of 2008 here.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 12:35:12 PM

From the looks of things ... with refiners lower VLO -3.10%, TSO -3.14%, FTO -4.24%, WNR -10.39% and UGA -2.78%, it looks as if unleaded inventories saw some build.

I did hear CNBC mention a draw in crude oil stockpiles, but was unable to catch the number.

USO $99.61 -1.03% ... had a similar "jerk" up then distribution back lower trade at around 10:35 AM EDT when data should have been released.

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 12:34:27 PM

As I started warning when the OEX made its last swing high, there's the possibility that it may have been near its top and it should be watched closely if it retested this resistance again. It's pulling back again, but the story may not quite be over as traders are atempting to stabilize it near its 15-minute 45-ema. It could still punch up toward 631.79 or maybe even 632.86, but that's not a given. Bulls do not want to see it lose support on 15-minute closes at its 15-minute 9-ema, now at 630.07, as that would suggest a short-term change in tenor and an increased likelihood that it would drop to 628.60 if not lower.

Keene Little : 6/4/2008 12:32:03 PM

And then of course we've got NDX which has completely retraced last week's decline. To say we have a bifurcated market at the moment is an understatement. That's usually not a bullish sign.

Keene Little : 6/4/2008 12:31:07 PM

The DOW has only managed to retrace 38% (12490) of its decline from last week.

Keene Little : 6/4/2008 12:30:11 PM

SPX 1388.22 is also a 50% retracement of the decline from last Thursday's high to yesterday's low and therefore fits well for a completion of the correction of that decline.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 12:28:46 PM

I'm having issues with my browser today. Unable to view internet material.

Keene Little : 6/4/2008 12:27:55 PM

SPX just tagged its downtrend line from May 19th near 1388 so it's a good place to try a short, stop just above yesterday's high near 1393.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 12:27:50 PM

UBS.R ... I think these would be Rights

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 12:27:39 PM

The A/D line is punching just a little above that descending trendline off its 5/29 high as well as a little above the potential resistance on 10-minute closes now at about 684, but it's not getting far enough above either to say that it's broken free of that resistance, as short-term bulls want it to do. The A/D line is at 692 as I type, so it's possible that the resistance is essentially holding. Bulls don't want a strong pullback, especially one that takes the A/D line below about 434 and sustains values below that.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 12:26:45 PM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $50.08 +1.93%, MSFT $27.55 +0.87%, INTC $23.64 +3.05%, LVLT $4.00 +6.95%, SPY $139.10 +0.73%, CSCO $26.93 +2.23%, F $6.64 -0.59%, LEH $32.33 +5.65%, IDEV $1.37 -66.58%, UBS.R $1.29 +10.25%

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 12:20:27 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 6/4/2008 12:19:46 PM

If SPX manages to poke a little higher here, watch for a top near 1391 (or not).

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 12:19:25 PM

The A/D line is now punching up toward that descending trendline in place over the last week and also the possible Keltner resistance at about 660 on 10-minute (not 15-minute) closes. This could be significant resistance, so just guard your profits.

James Brown : 6/4/2008 12:15:53 PM

The weekly chart suggests that Costco Wholesale (COST) might be topping out but after the recent four-day sell-off the stock is bouncing from a dip near its rising 50-dma. There are a lot of mixed signals here but nimble traders might be able to scalp a couple of points. I could see it bouncing back to $73-74. Shares are up 1% to $70.75. The P&F chart is still bullish with an $82 target. chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 12:13:03 PM

The MID, the S&P MidCap index, has punched up toward Friday's and yesterday's highs of 882.67 and 881.84, respectively. The pattern over the last five days is a bit of an expanding or broadening one with one version of the top trendline at about 883.20, so it's possible that the MID could punch higher and then turn down again, so watch for that possibility. The point here is that while the MID might still have some upside today before hitting that upper trendline, it's approaching what may well be strong resistance. It has been on 5/29, 5/30, and 6/3 so far. The MID has been one of the momentum indices on many days lately, so keep it on your radar screen as a sort of indicator index. If it can break through that trendline, the next target is near 887, but the Keltner outlook now and other signs point to some possible difficulty sustaining 15-minute closes above that trendline. The MID is at 881.27 as I type.

James Brown : 6/4/2008 12:09:27 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) is up 1.8% and is getting closer to a breakout over resistance near $27.00. The P&F chart is bullish with a bounce from support and a $28 target. Link

James Brown : 6/4/2008 12:07:58 PM

interesting...the INX Internet index is up 2.2%

James Brown : 6/4/2008 12:05:43 PM

OI call play PCLN is up 2.3% and edging up to new two-week highs.

James Brown : 6/4/2008 12:03:26 PM

More aggressive traders may want to scope out RIMM. The stock is bouncing from the bottom of its channel. I'm concerned about the short-term trend of lower highs and what appear to be some bearish divergences in the weekly technical indicators. chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 12:04:01 PM

The OEX did maintain the support of its 15-minute 9-ema into that last 15-minute close, but it's back to test it again. That's at about 629.60 with the OEX currently at 629.62. I think it's probably a little more than 50% of a chance that the OEX will rise toward at least 630.51 and maybe 631.42 again, although that higher one is iffy and the next level even iffier. This is just a subjective take based on what I'm seeing on the charts and it can be undone in a heartbeat.

Keene Little : 6/4/2008 12:01:36 PM

It takes a drop below this morning's first high near 9:45 AM to say we might have seen the high for today.

Keene Little : 6/4/2008 11:57:49 AM

The DOW and SPX rolled over from resistance but even for the bearish setup it's possible we're going to get one more poke higher to finish a 5-wave move up from this morning's quick low (to finish wave C of an A-B-C bounce off yesterday afternoon's low). If that happens it will likely show bearish divergence and I'd try shorting it. But it's also possible the high is already in. The techs continue to look stronger as NDX looks more like a bull flag pullback on its 2-min chart.

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 11:48:12 AM

The OEX is approaching its 15-minute 9-ema, now at 629.47. Bulls want to see the OEX maintain 15-minute closes on that average and then bounce up to test resistance again. Keep your stops set at account- and trade-appropriate levels now if you're in bullish positions. Don't let profits turn to losses as it's possible that the OEX won't be able to break through that resistance now up to 631.27 on 15-minute closes and reach toward the next resistance now at 632.97 and then 634.70. That's still iffy.

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 11:39:20 AM

Keltner (and other) outlook on the A/D line: At 558 as I type, the A/D line has moved up to challenge a descending trendline off its 5/29 high. That descending trendline now crosses at about 650. On upside tests, the A/D line has been adhering a bit more to the 10-minute chart's resistance levels lately, not hitting the higher 15-minute ones, and the A/D line currently has potentially strong Keltner resistance on 10-minute closes at 643.33, right in alignment with that trendline resistance. So, bulls should start exercising care from this point on to protect their profits.

I see a possibility but not a probability that the OEX could move up toward 633-635 and that the A/D line could move up toward 1257, but the possibility also exists that this could be it or nearly it as far as daily gains. From this point forward, I will be watching for bearish divergences to set up on the A/D line's chart.

James Brown : 6/4/2008 11:31:14 AM

There might be a trade forming in Foster Wheeler (FWLT). The stock is nearing resistance at the $80.00 level. chart: Link

Keene Little : 6/4/2008 11:30:45 AM

NQ closed its June 2nd gap by tagging 2034.75 but NDX has just a little bit further to close its gap at 2035.88.

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 11:30:22 AM

As long as the OEX now maintains 15-minute closes above about 630.63, it has set a potential upside target of 633.09. If it drops deeper but maintains 15-minute closes above 629.46, that would suggest that it might keep on battering away at resistance. The OEX is now at 630.79.

Keene Little : 6/4/2008 11:28:34 AM

Both the DOW and SPX have hit their upside targets for two equal legs up from yesterday afternoon and therefore any weakness right here could be a good short play, tight stop. Their downtrend lines from May 19th are near DOW 12518 and SPX 1389.

James Brown : 6/4/2008 11:26:18 AM

Trading idea: Omincare (OCR) is moving higher. The stock is up almost 3% and looks poised to breakout from a four-week trading range. Shares are just below resistance at $25.00 and its exponential and simple 200-dma(s) also near $25.00. If OCR breaks out it could see a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at more than 10% of the 117.6 million-share float. That's more than a week's worth of volume in short interest. Keep a wary eye on the stock's long-term trendline of lower highs (see chart): Link

James Brown : 6/4/2008 11:19:39 AM

CNBC reporting that Merrill Lynch has upgraded Lehman Brothers (LEH) to a "buy" with a $37 target. LEH is bouncing sharply from its lows (28.61) and is up 7.4% to $32.87.

James Brown : 6/4/2008 11:14:52 AM

The XAL airline index is one of the day's best performers. The group is up almost 3% as crude oil falls.

UAUA +7.7%
AMR +7.2%
LUV +1.1%
DAL +2.1%
NWA +1.98%
CAL +3.6%
JBLU +2.48%

James Brown : 6/4/2008 11:10:30 AM

Oil refiner Valero (VLO) is just plunging along with crude oil. The stock is down 3.8% and back to round-number support at $50.00. Just three days ago VLO was breaking out over significant resistance at its descending trendline.

Keene Little : 6/4/2008 11:06:18 AM

NDX has now rallied above yesterday's high and that sets a bullish tone to its pattern. Unless it's going to flail around in a large consolidation pattern, say between 1980 and 2040, we should see NDX head back above last Friday's high near 2041. That has me questioning whether the DOW will fail near 12500 and SPX near 1387-1388. Bears need to be careful here (both sides actually) as we're getting some mixed signals and a pretty good split between indices.

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 11:06:01 AM

The OEX is still battering away at that resistance now snaking up to 630.88 on 15-minute closes. I said early this morning that I wouldn't be surprised to see this tested and wouldn't even be particularly surprised to see the resistance now at 633.10-634.64 be tested. I felt fairly confident about this lower level being tested, but the outcome of this test will tell us about the other level, and so I'm just not certain yet about that. I am certain of one thing, however. If that higher level is tested and if I were in bullish positions, I would know before it's tested how I was going to react, and then I'd just do it. In other words, if you're thinking now that, if that's tested, it's going to be time to take some profits off the table or otherwise lock in profits or cinch up stops, then don't waffle when the OEX gets there. It could go higher, of course, but it could also keel over. Everything from the 15-minute to the daily charts show that level cold be tough.

Keene Little : 6/4/2008 11:00:07 AM

Good question from Denise. Based on my expectations for TNX to head into the toilet what does that mean for the Fed? They're making noises about having to raise rates because of inflation concerns. I think inflation will abate sharply once commodities start heading back down and the economy slows further. If TNX does head south in a hurry I believe the Fed will follow it, as they always do.

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 10:49:37 AM

There's now a very, very tentative upside target of 630.50 for the OEX, but that's dependent on 15-minute closes above 628.42 and a series of higher highs and lows that will begin turning that 9-ema higher.

Keene Little : 6/4/2008 10:49:32 AM

To give a sense of where I think the 10-year yield is headed, in March 2007 I made a projection, based on the EW pattern since 2000 and the rising wedge since the 2003 low, that we would see another leg down below the June 2003 low. This was the chart then: Link . This is the same chart today: Link

The bounce off the January and March lows fits well as an a-b-c bounce for a 2nd wave correction of the June 2007-January 2008 1st wave decline. It should be setting up a steep decline in TNX which will mean lots of buying in Treasuries. I don't believe this is a good omen for the stock market.

Jane Fox : 6/4/2008 10:47:20 AM

The S&P futures made a new daily high but it was not supported by a VIX new daily low. Link

Jane Fox : 6/4/2008 10:44:06 AM

If you have the execution skills trading Crude right after the report is released can be extremely profitable. You have to have your wits about you though.

Jane Fox : 6/4/2008 10:42:41 AM

Crude inventories are out and Crude has spiked all over the place. Up to $125.08 then back to 122.80.

Jane Fox : 6/4/2008 10:41:48 AM

Gold is still retaining its uptrend, has not made any lower lows or lower highs to reverse it yet. Link

Keene Little : 6/4/2008 10:36:04 AM

The 10-year yield, near 3.9% today, is at an interesting point here. TNX has been holding inside the upper half of a parallel up-channel since the March low but the last high, which poked above the top of the channel, showed bearish divergence. So it's a question whether TNX will break down from here or after another bounce back up to the top of the channel. Daily chart: Link

In both cases I'm showing TNX about to take a tumble and drop below the March low. At least that's the setup and now I'm watching for evidence of a new decline to kick off. Yields and stock prices have remained in synch for much of the time since 2000 as traders rush into Treasuries for safety when stocks are being sold (bidding up the prices of Treasuries results in a drop in yields). Therefore it's another reason to keep an eye on the 10-year.

James Brown : 6/4/2008 10:29:36 AM

In addition to Malaysia, now India is raising fuel prices.

The Indian government allowed the state-run oil companies to raise prices on gasoline, diesel, and cooking gas (source: CBSMW). India also cut taxes on imported oil.

The jump in prices is about 12 cents (5 rupees) on a liter of gas.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2008 10:27:32 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 10:27:28 AM

The TRAN hasn't been doing much of anything this morning, being right now very near yesterday's close, but that may change with the inventories number in a few minutes. Keep it on your radar screen as this often leads the OEX, SPX and Dow, of course.

James Brown : 6/4/2008 10:22:45 AM

Homebuilder Hovnanian (HOV) President and CEO said there were a couple of areas in California and Houston where they were actually able to RAISE prices for their new homes. Management remains very cautious but sounded hopeful that the industry is closer to a bottom, especially with housing starts so low.

HOV reported earnings yesterday and missed estimates by $2.65/share. Revenues were down 30% but slightly better than expected. The company lost $5.29/share versus estimates of -2.64.

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 10:19:07 AM

The OEX is just chopping to either side of the flattening 9-ema now at 627.90. Potential support is below at 625.50-626.25 on 15-minute closes and potential resistance at 630.35-630.66. Each seem about equally attainable . . . or is that equally unattainable?

James Brown : 6/4/2008 10:18:47 AM

Semiconductor company Xilinx (XLNX) is seeing its stock price out perform today. Shares are up 3% to a new multi-month high after they announced a 7% cut in its workforce.

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 10:17:40 AM

The A/D line is currently -453. I expected and posted that we should see a pullback, but those hoping for equity gains now want it to find support on 15-minute closes at the 9-ema now at about -550. That better preserves the chance that it will keep hammering away at the overhead resistance and maybe have hopes of breaking through it rather than tumbling lower.

James Brown : 6/4/2008 10:15:27 AM

There might be a bearish trade here in Crown Castle Intl. (CCI) . The stock is down 2.2% following a downgrade today. Shares have produced a bearish double top and now the stock has broken its two-month trendline of support. One concern about buying options is that the stock doesn't seem to move very quickly. chart: Link

Keene Little : 6/4/2008 10:09:49 AM

Yesterday CME dropped below its March low (399.01) but then made a quick recovery back up and closed marginally above it. Today it's dropping even lower so I'd say we've got a break of that support level and it appears it could head down to its 338 target (currently trading near 391).

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 10:08:10 AM

The OEX currently looks about as likely to climb toward 630.24-630.78 as it does to drop toward 625.16-626.30. There's not a lot of preference given to either choice on a Keltner basis, anyway. My overall outlook is that that the OEX may well eventually reach toward the resistance, but that doesn't preclude a test of support first. A break through yesterday's low would change that outlook.

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 10:05:35 AM

The BIX and BKX are approaching yesterday's lows again, but not yet there. The BIX, at least, looks tentatively stronger than it did late yesterday when it was dropping. Potential Keltner support on 15-minute closes is converging from 216.24-216.85, with the BIX currently at 216.75. This short-term support isn't strong enough to keep the BIX from cascading lower if that's what it's going to do, but I'm just saying there's potential for it to steady and bears should be aware of that potential.

James Brown : 6/4/2008 10:05:30 AM

One of today's big winners is Guess Inc. (GES), an apparel retailer. Yesterday the company reported earnings that were 5 cents better than expected. One analyst firm has raised their earnings estimates following the report. The stock is up almost 14% and breaking out over its simple 200-dma around $43.

James Brown : 6/4/2008 10:03:20 AM

ExxonMobil (XOM) is boucning from its intraday low at $85.00 today (probably just an oversold bounce). The stock is up 0.6%. XOM broke down through several levels of support in the last three days.

James Brown : 6/4/2008 10:01:45 AM

Brazilian oil giant Petrobras (PBR) is sliding lower again. The stock is down 1.9% to $66.70 (there was a 2-for-1 split a few weeks ago). The P&F chart is bearish with a $60 target. The stock is actually trying to bounce today from its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-May rally. The 50% retracement would be about $62.25.

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 10:00:26 AM

The A/D line has begun its pullback now. So far, it's just a pullback to test the -260 area S/R, but equity bulls would prefer that it close this period near this level if not above now that it's pierced it. With a long punch down the first 15-minute period and a strong punch up the second, both soon reversed, the A/D line hasn't gone much of anywhere since its open and all we can conclude is that there's some uncertainty still out there.

James Brown : 6/4/2008 9:58:31 AM

Natural Gas spiking higher in the last few minutes. The UNG is very close to hitting another new high. +0.6% to $58.30

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 9:57:47 AM

We also have Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on tap today, but not until this afternoon at 2:45 pm ET. He will speak at the Harvard Alumni Association's Class Day Exercise in Cambridge, and the topic of his speech will be "Economic Challenges: 1975 and Now." I doubt that a speech like that will include a question-and-answer session and the topic doesn't seem to be one that will deliver something we haven't heard before, but you never know.

James Brown : 6/4/2008 9:57:10 AM

Trading idea: Shoe Carnival (SCVL) is up 1.8% and breaking above resistance near $15.00. The $15.00 area has been long-term resistance. It will take a move over $15.50 to really breakout on the P&F chart. Link There might be a play here but shares look short-term overbought to me. There is a chance SCVL might see more short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at 13.3% of the very small 8.3 million-share float.

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 9:55:09 AM

Remember the Services ISM in a few minutes.

James Brown : 6/4/2008 9:53:12 AM

More on LEH.... the street is starting to worry that LEH will post its first quarterly loss since going public in 1994.(source:Bloomberg) LEH reports earnings on June 18th. Put option volumes have quadrupled recently as traders speculate on a further meltdown.

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 9:47:12 AM

The OEX support on 15-minute closes now at 625.78 is holding into this first 15-minute close. The story may not be over yet, however, so keep a close watch. The A/D line rises to test what may be significant resistance near -270 and then again at -55. The A/D line is -269 as I type. I would expect some sort of pullback soon, but bulls hope it will be pullback only to about -460 or maybe -550.

Keene Little : 6/4/2008 9:45:56 AM

We got the shakeout move down at the open and reversal back up. Assuming we'll see a continuation higher this morning, two equal legs up from yesterday afternoon would be at SPX 1387 and DOW 12494. Both of those are near the projections I gave last night and would make for a opportunity to look for a short entry. In the meantime look for a day-trading opportunity to the upside.

James Brown : 6/4/2008 9:45:41 AM

USO oil etf is down 0.6% and hovering on either side of $100.00.

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 9:39:50 AM

I would not be terribly surprised to see the OEX test 631 today and not even terribly surprised to see it test 633.50. I would be pretty surprised to see it close much about 635, however, and not stall a bit below that, if it gets that high. In other words, a climb up to test 633-635 doesn't seem impossible to me, but I'd certainly watch for rollover potential if the OEX were to get that high.

The other possibility, it seems to me, is that the OEX just gives way and drops down toward what seems an almost inevitable test of lower values.

James Brown : 6/4/2008 9:37:49 AM

United Airlines - UAUA is making some headlines. The company said that rising fuel prices has lead it to cut planes and staff. UAUA plans to remove 100 planes from its fleet and eliminate about 1,500 jobs. Most of the planes are the single aisle 737s.

The stock is up 0.2% to $8.55

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 9:37:19 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: The A/D line immediately started dropping this morning, and is now slightly below the 15-minute 9-ema, now at about -727. If it maintains 15-minute closes below this level, it sets a tentative downside target at about -1210. We don't know where it will end this period, though, and I'd remain a bit skeptical about that downside target as the A/D line also was building a congestion zone from about -880 to +480 late yesterday and this looks so far as if it's just broadening that zone a bit. The A/D line is now -910.

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 9:34:58 AM

And the OEX does drop to test that potential Keltner support on 15-minute closes, now pushed down to 625.79.

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2008 9:34:04 AM

As is obvious, futures are lower this morning. As might not be as obvious, the USDJPY is not as negative. It's still caught in the sideways consolidation band in which it's been moving a couple of months now, so it's neither confirming nor refuting the actions of the futures this morning. On a short-term basis, it's been trying to rise since the ADP came out, but with mixed results as it keeps getting knocked back. Still, it's higher than its pre-ADP number, so short-term, the USDJPY somewhat refutes equity weakness. Keep that on the radar screen.

As I said yesterday, my overall view is that the OEX could again drop toward sinking daily support now at 622.63 and maybe even slide down to its current target on that chart, now at about 613.50. That vulnerability should be kept in mind. However, over the last two days, the OEX has sprung off its lows each day, and that leads me to warn that the slide lower might not be immediate, even if it does occur. If the OEX today acts in accordance with the futures action, it might drop to retest potential Keltner support on 15-minute closes at 625.88 or maybe even lower at 624.95. Do be a bit wary, however, if this occurs just prior to the Services ISM, and that number's release could also impact markets. Test whether you want to lock in some profits if the OEX is testing yesterday's low and mostly holding above it just before the ISM. The ISM could of course send markets either direction, but just measure how much risk you want to hold over that release.

James Brown : 6/4/2008 9:31:10 AM

Just heard that fuel prices in Malaysia jumped 40% overnight as the government peels back its subsidies. The government says that its subsidies on fuel have been costing it (US$)14 billion a year.

James Brown : 6/4/2008 9:21:38 AM

Lehman Brothers (LEH)... making headlines again.

People still wonder if we're seeing a Bear-Stearns like meltdown.
There was a WSJ article last night that said LEH was buying back its own shares as the stock falls.

Keene Little : 6/4/2008 9:19:15 AM

Equity futures dropped after the European markets opened and then consolidated for the rest of the overnight session near the lows. They're holding above yesterday's lows so the bulls will want to see an immediate turnaround after the cash market opens. It's possible we'll get a quick shakeout with the morning drop and then quick reversal back up so be careful.

James Brown : 6/4/2008 9:18:53 AM

Dow futures are -40

NASDAQ futures are -10.2

S&P futures are -5.6

James Brown : 6/4/2008 9:16:05 AM

Asian Markets overnight...
Chinese Shanghai Composite... -1.9%
Hong Kong Hang Seng ......... -1.0%

Japanese NIKKEI 225 index.... +1.59%

European markets sharply lower...
French CAC 40 ...........-2.05%
German DAX ............. -1.5%
English FTSE 100 ....... -1.9%

James Brown : 6/4/2008 9:12:28 AM

Crude oil is ticking lower.... down $0.49 to $123.82

Jane Fox : 6/4/2008 8:52:06 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Productivity remained at a healthy level in the first quarter and labor costs were contained, government data showed Wednesday.

Revised data showed productivity growth in the U.S. workplace increase at a slight faster pace during the first quarter to 2.6% annual growth, up from the 2.3% estimated a month ago as output accelerated in line with upward revision to first quarter gross domestic product.

Productivity in the non farm business sector is up 3.3% over the past four quarters, the fastest pace since the final three months of 2004.

Meanwhile, first quarter unit labor costs - a key gauge of inflationary pressures from labor markets - were revised lower to a 2.2% annualized rate, down from 2.3% earlier.

Unite labor costs are up 0.7% in the past year, the slowest pace since the fourth quarter of 2004.

Jane Fox : 6/4/2008 8:40:55 AM

Dateline WSJ - Obama clinched the Democratic nomination, making him the first African-American presidential candidate of a major party. Clinton told supporters at a New York rally that she "will be making no decisions tonight" and is committed to uniting the Democratic Party to retake the White House. The candidates split primary wins in South Dakota and Montana.

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