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OI Technical Staff : 6/7/2008 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2008 3:38:14 AM

When we're done with the Yen, start thinking about the Euro!

Remember Wednesday evening! Euro on the brink of testing, breaking a key "doji" support level.

Just day's before an ECB official said "dollar strength versus Euro a welcomed development." Then what happens very early Thursday morning?

ECB's Trichet says (paraphrasing) ... "Inflation a concern, may raise rates."

What happens? Euro strengthens vs. the dollar, OIL SURGES!

Of course Trichet had to say that after Bernanke makes "strong dollar a priority!"

Oh the French ....

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2008 3:30:14 AM

There! The EWJ is at that 08/16, 08/17 and 08/20/07 low at tonight's close!

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2008 3:29:35 AM

Think! Think!... Think! .... I've got my work cut out for me don't I? I'll get it.

Look at the EWJ, turn on your volume. What was the "revalation" on 02/27/07 (EWJ traded 16.2 million shares)

Hmmmm ... look at the FXY! It was a relatively "new" security at the time (but it still mirrors the Yen), but look at its chart THAT DAY! 02/27/07. Some type of "shock" there too!

What about 08/16/07 on the FXY?

Checking EWJ on 08/16/07. There! Volume! An inflection low!

Check the news!

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2008 3:16:20 AM

The TRAN and even the SMH made highs back in Jul'07, well before the major averages made their highs in Oct'07.

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2008 3:14:56 AM

Is the 03/14/08 lows "more important" from a retracement point of view, or anchoring point than the 1/22/08, or 01/23/08 lows I've been using?

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2008 3:12:44 AM

Wait a minute! ... Check out the EWJ ... What about the Dow Transports? (TRAN).

I think we're onto something ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2008 3:10:17 AM

Wait a minute! ... Why are the U.S. Fed officials making some many comments this week about ... "We've learned from Japan's banking errors ..."

Jeff Bailey : 6/7/2008 3:05:20 AM

To be very honest with you, Today's (Friday's) TWM call trade (TWM is an INVERSE ProShares Russell 2000 security) had more to do with ... Moderate Economic Growth, where RUT.X had come back to its 12/31/07 close. But INDU, SPX/OEX were weak, mostly from the banks (you've seen my posts the last several sessions, breaking down the INDU components, GE and GM too with some financing arms).

So mind boggling for me (Jeff Bailey) to track all the write-downs, comprehend the actual figures.

Is the Yen (weakening seems to be more bullish for U.S. equities) telling us something that is easier to visualize in chart form?

Again, to believe in what a chart is telling you, you have to believe that the MARKET, or the buyers and sellers of that instrument, know what it is supposed to say about something.

Main concernes are ... Housing and mortgage-related problems, credit crunch and oil/energy prices.

Each second, each minute, each hour, each day, each week, each month, market participants get more information, all the while processing that information (not just the new, but putting it together with the old) to eventually put the puzzle together.

What's the "rate of change" from tonight's news out of Japan?

Today's jobs data important no doubt. Cant pay the mortgage if you don't have a job? Some can't pay the ARM even with a job!

What was it on 10/12/08, then 01/23/08, then 3/17/08 that had market participants doing what they were doing with the Yen/$, that has so much of a tie to U.S. equities?

Why did the iShares Japan (EWJ) 13.34 -3.54% ... trade its 12/31/07 close ($13.29) first, on 04/28/07?

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