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Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 10:16:29 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 10:06:21 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 6/13/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 8:45:24 PM

No tsunami warnings issued at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 8:44:05 PM

Magnitude 7 earthquake jolts Northeastern Japan

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 8:37:52 PM

DIA Option Chain ... sorted by volume Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 5:19:28 PM

I also feel it IMPORTANT that any ECB moves come AFTER U.S. Fed moves. NOT before! ECB "too tight" as it is.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 5:18:13 PM

Hmmmm ... If we're to see a "huge spike" higher in the dollar, I (Jeff Bailey) would think equity bulls want to see it in the dollar vs. euro.

Dollar's done "enough" near-term vs. the yen.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 5:10:58 PM

I'm showing today's most active DIA options with VXO.X 22.21 -10.62% were ...
DAW-FS 18,194 (double OI of 12,714)
DAW-RR 8,008
DAW-FR 6,328
DAW-RQ 5,971

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 5:03:21 PM

iShares Invest. Grade Corp. Bond (LQD)

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 5:01:21 PM

Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index 204.24; Yield 6.05%

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 4:55:56 PM

DIA's Option Montage where OI is at Thursday's close Link

Montage shown last night with OI as of 06/11/08 close Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 4:30:51 PM

Deere, Co (DE) $77.92 -0.05% ... saying flood waters have had no impact on production.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 4:22:58 PM

Oh my! ... NASDAQ Comp 2,454.50 +2.08% ... Here too. Even better is WHERE it close with your conventional!

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 4:22:01 PM

Almost "exact" close today as Tuesday's big board. Can check NH/NL for any catapult.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 4:17:19 PM

On Tuesday @ 12:20:38 PM at the DIA traded $123.36, the VXO.X was 23.78.

The DAW-HS were $4.50 offer.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 4:14:46 PM

Incredible what just a "little" downside premium does.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 4:13:26 PM

VXO.X 22.21

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 4:12:16 PM

Locked up ... Can't get a VXO.X

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 4:11:44 PM

6 minutes until close.

DIA $123.29 +1.36% ... DAW-HS $4.00 x $4.10

Keene Little : 6/13/2008 4:05:30 PM

New highs into the close and closing at the highs. This runs the risk of a quick reversal on Monday (the pattern of reversing the previous day's move if it closes at the low or high). If SPX can make it a little higher on Monday then it will get itself into the 1360-1365 resistance zone. But so far so good for the bulls--this has the potential to rally considerably higher into opex week.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 4:00:55 PM

Euro CurrencyShares (FXE) $153.83 -0.40% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 3:59:48 PM

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) $126,730 +0.03% ... battles to hold.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 3:58:48 PM

S&P Insurance ($IUX.X) 297.93 +1.15% ... late bid to the close.

James Brown : 6/13/2008 3:58:22 PM

FLIR Systems (FLIR) is up 7% after last night's announcement that the stock would be added to the S&P 400 midcap index. Shorts are getting squeezed after yesterday's bearish breakdown under its three-month trendline of higher lows.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2008 3:58:20 PM

Have a good weekend, everyone. See you back here Monday morning.

Keene Little : 6/13/2008 3:54:03 PM

Tim Russert was young. I suspect he had a blockage of the main artery feeding the left ventricle of the heart. It's called the "widow maker" because when it gets plugged there's very little warning and suddenly you're dead. How do I know this? At 49 (I'm 55 now) mine got 90% clogged. My father had a quintuple bypass at age 57 (he's 79 today and in good health) so when I felt a little chest pain and nothing was showing up even with a stress test I insisted on a heart catheterization and they found it and put in a stent. I was a runner, low blood pressure, low cholesterol and ate lots of fruits, veggies and fish. I was in the 3% risk group so the doctor had a hard time believing me. It can happen to anyone.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 3:50:53 PM

DIA $122.98 +1.10% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 3:50:37 PM

VXO.X alert! 22.69 -8.69% ... probes WKLY Pivot.

James Brown : 6/13/2008 3:44:16 PM

Tim Russert was 58 years old.

James Brown : 6/13/2008 3:42:52 PM

.... FXY, Japanese Yen/dollar ETF, is testing its simple 200-dma...

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 3:42:50 PM

NBC reporting the journalist Tim Russert has died of a heart attack.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 3:39:01 PM

Valero Energy (VLO) $44.50 +0.18% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 3:38:33 PM

July Crude Oil (cl08n) settled down $1.88, or -1.37% at $134.86.

July Unleaded (rb08n) settled down $0.0634, or -1.80% at $3.4626.

My July "Crack Spread" tabulation slips to 25.676 from yesterday's 25.785.

My August "Crack Spread" also slips to 25.479 from yesterday's 25.568.

James Brown : 6/13/2008 3:36:42 PM

I am not convinced that bulls want to buy this bounce in Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) with the stock under its 10-dma but shares are bouncing from the three-month trendline. Volume is pretty light today on the rebound, which doesn't instill a lot of confidence. Bulls want to see volume on a rally. chart: Link

Keene Little : 6/13/2008 3:35:01 PM

News just came across that NBC's Tim Russert died of a heart attack. He seemed like a relatively young man to me (maybe because I'm getting older). It's another reminder that life is short and be sure your priorities are straight.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2008 3:30:35 PM

I mentioned earlier today that, depending on what happened into the close, the weekly OEX candle might be a small-bodied candle with upper and lower shadows, a potential reversal signal. That's still looking possible. Also looking possible is a daily candle that completes or almost completes a morning-star reversal signal on the daily chart. If the OEX were to end the day anywhere near 617-618, I would consider that three-candle formation completed. A closing level between 615 and that higher level is an iffy confirmation.

I've seen some times in the past when the third candle that completes a signal is the only reversal that the reversal signal produces, so this reversal certainly isn't a given, but if the OEX ends the day anywhere above 615, charts suggest it's a possibility at least.

Anyone making end-of-day or end-of-week decisions should be aware of that as they decide how much risk they'll take home, particularly if they're in June options. You'll be dealing with accelerated premium decay over the weekend, too, so Monday morning better go your direction immediately and with some speed to make up for that weekend premium decay, whatever side you're trading.

Traders making these decisions should be aware that we'll be getting the Empire State Business Conditions Index at 8:30 at ET Monday morning, with that number considered a predictor of the ISM. Several hours before that, at 5:00 am ET, the Eurozone's CPI will be delivered, and that will be important. As Keene and others have been mentioning, Paulson and Bernanke have been in a war of words with Trichet over whether the dollar or euro will be strengthened in relationship to each other, so that Eurozone CPI could be very important to us, too.

James Brown : 6/13/2008 3:29:45 PM

Yesterday afternoon shares of Jo-Ann Stores (JAS) just fell off a cliff intraday on news of a downgrade. Traders are buying that dip today near the bottom of its rising channel and 30-dma. chart: Link

James Brown : 6/13/2008 3:23:30 PM

Trading Idea: Hansen Natural (HANS) - This might be a bullish entry point in HANS. The stock has tested old resistance at the top of its previous channel as new support. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish. It will take a move over $36.00 to turn it bullish. The bearish price target was $31.00, which was exceeded with last month's lows around $28. chart: Link

James Brown : 6/13/2008 3:16:34 PM

VisionChina Media (VISN) is up today (+6.8% to $16.70) after one firm started coverage on it with a "buy" and a $23 price target. I think the analyst had some pretty good timing to start coverage on it with the stock bouncing from support. chart: Link

Keene Little : 6/13/2008 3:12:59 PM

Interesting split today between the banks (BIX) and the brokers (XBD). Brokers are making new highs here while the banks are still in the red, although up from today's low. It presents a bit of a mixed picture currently. The good news for bulls is that SPX held 1345. A push to a new daily high could occur before the close.

James Brown : 6/13/2008 3:11:53 PM

SLM Corp, formerly known as Sallie Mae, had its price target upped to a whopping $24.00 today. Shares are up 3% to $23.81. The stock does look like it wants to breakout over resistance at the $24.00 level. The P&F chart is bullish with a $29 target.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 3:09:40 PM

As yields rise and dollar shows some strength as investors contemplate Fed tightening, those that have long-held the belief of stagflation will continue to monitor gold.

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $85.99 +0.45% ... ~$859.90 spot.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2008 3:08:49 PM

Resistance has softened for the OEX on 15-minute closes, but potential resistance still exists at 616.15 and then at 618.40.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 3:06:41 PM

Bond market closed ...

13-week note's yield finished down 2.0 bp at 1.930% while the 5-year bond's yield rose 6.5 bp to 3.728%. The benchmark 10-year yield rose 5.6 bp at 4.261%, while the longer-dated 30-year yield rose 3.8 bp to 4.802%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 3:03:03 PM

Lehman Brothers (LEH) $25.84 +13.78% ... presses best levels of the session. $28.00 secondary most likely a "key level."

James Brown : 6/13/2008 3:01:40 PM

Salesforce.com (CRM) is holding on to its gains after being upgraded this morning. The analyst raised their price target to $100. Shares of CRM are up 4% to $73.14. This stock's trend is bullish but you may want for CRM to fill this morning's gap before considering bullish positions.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 3:00:27 PM

Sector Losers ... with just more than one (1) hour left in this week's trade.

Regional Banks -2.39%
Money Center Banks -1.14% and Treasuries

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 2:58:56 PM

Sector Winners ... as we head to the close.

Broker/Dealer +4.29%
Airlines +3.77%
Home Construction +2.59%
Retail +2.65%
Cyclicals +1.80%
NASDAQ Telecom +1.29%

Keene Little : 6/13/2008 2:46:08 PM

Earlier this morning the euro dropped below its uptrend line from the May 7th low (I was wondering if it might be the bottom of a big sideways triangle forming since the April high). It then bounced back up to it at today's mid-day high but so far it looks like a kiss goodbye as the euro heads lower again. A breakdown in the euro could potentially be negative for commodities (as the US dollar rallies), including oil and gold (I'm still short gold). 480-min all-hours euro chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 2:37:06 PM

Venezuela's Planning Minister saying today that the country has no intention of nationalizing the banking sector.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2008 2:36:46 PM

Ah, the joys of working remotely on your backup laptop. My computer froze for a while after I tried to call up an application I haven't used for a while. While I've been gone, the OEX did move down to test the 612 level where I cautioned that support might exist although Keltners weren't showing a lot of support there at the time. There is now, at 611.88 on 15-minute closes. Potential resistance on 15-minute closes is at 613.90 and then from 615.69-618.35. In truth, the OEX is chopping around without a lot of pattern. It retraced slightly more than half of the range from yesterday's low to today's high before starting higher again, but is that meaningful or just part of the chop?

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 2:33:48 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $28.83 +2.08% ... According to Reuters, MSFT saying the company is open to Yahoo talks despite Google pact.

YHOO $22.51 -4.29% ...

GOOG $568.94 +2.89% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 2:15:12 PM

General Electric (GE) $28.71 -1.17% ... Shares have hit a 4.5-year low today despite the company rebuffing speculation that outside capital.

In a research note, JPMorgan said, "While the company has plenty of challenges coming out of Q1 and uncertainty at (GE Capital) remains a major concern, management is stating again that the capital base is strong and it is denying the speculation."

Keene Little : 6/13/2008 2:13:30 PM

SPX is trying to find support here at 1345. This is where the bulls need to hold the line.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 2:11:09 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 6/13/2008 1:33:11 PM

No surprise for a Friday I guess but there's just no life to this market. Neither side seems interested and all the market is doing is sagging under its own weight. If SPX drops back a little further, the 2nd leg down for today will achieve 162% of the 1st leg down at 1345.12. A 50% retracement of this morning's rally is at 1345.08 so there's good correlation there for support. Any lower than that and the probability of a failed-rally scenario increases considerably.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2008 1:29:00 PM

So far, the OEX has maintained 15-minute closes above the 45-ema, now at 614.08. However, it has not been able to push back above the 15-minute 9-ema and that needs to be done before there's any short-term change in tenor. That 9-ema is now at 615.01. The overhead resistance is now grouped from 616.85-618.56, and still looks relatively firm if perhaps not quite as firm as it was early this morning. It's still going to take a lot to get past that if the OEX does rise up there. Perhaps short-covering before the weekend could do it, but we just have to see if it's bulls or bears who will be running scared later this afternoon.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2008 1:17:36 PM

The TRIN is currently 1.02, above the 1.00 benchmark most use as a bearish/bullish benchmark but also above the 0.94 benchmark that Keltner channels tell me is important today on 15-minute closes. It has been maintaining 15-minute closes above the 9-ema for the last 45 minutes with that 9-ema now at 1.00, but both traditionalists and those watching Keltners want that pattern changed if they're bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 1:06:49 PM

VIX.X 21.30 -8.70% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 1:06:19 PM

Swing trade put alert! ... for one (1) of the HSBC Inc. HBC Sep $80 Puts (HBC-UP) at the offer of $4.20.

HBC $79.86 -0.69% ...

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2008 1:05:50 PM

It's not too early to be thinking about end-of-day and end-of-week stuff. If the OEX were to end the day anywhere between the current level and about 622-625, the weekly candle will be one form or another of small-bodied candles at the bottom of a decline. This will be a potential reversal signal if it occurs. Of course, not all reversal signals result in reversals, but keep this in mind. About the only way such a candle would not be produced would be if the OEX drops below yesterday's low and stays there into the close or it if zooms way up, past about 625 and closes there. Strangely enough, that might not be as strong a reversal signal although that would create a week with a spring off support shown by a lower candle shadow.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2008 1:00:29 PM

Another "not optimal" development can be found when studying the A/D line's chart. The A/D line has dropped below both the 15-minute 9-ema and the breakdown benchmark, with those at 1125 and 1180. This happened yesterday, too, and signals some concern, but there is a slight difference already seen. Once the A/D line dropped below these levels yesterday, it began dropping quickly. It has not so far done that but has stayed rather near (in Keltner terms) those potential support levels, so it may still be testing rather than violating them. It's now 1001 as I type. Bulls don't want to see it drop quickly now.

James Brown : 6/13/2008 1:00:08 PM

Dow-component Wal-Mart (WMT) looks like it's coiling for a breakout over resistance at the $60.00 level. FYI: It's worth noting that both the MACD and RSI seem to have a bearish divergence between the stock's price. WMT is near new 52-week highs but the two technical indicators are showing lower "highs". This doesn't mean the stock can't go higher but it should raise a caution flag for the bulls. chart: Link

Keene Little : 6/13/2008 12:59:04 PM

SPX has now dropped down to where today's pullback has achieved two equal legs down (at 1349.59). Slightly lower is the 38% retracement of this morning's rally at 1348.33. For a bullish resolution out of this we shouldn't see much lower. If it drops lower then we run the risk of another failed rally.

Keene Little : 6/13/2008 12:55:53 PM

BIDU successfully tested its 200-dma yesterday near 312 (it made a low of 310.54) and has since bounced to a high today of 328.42. In addition to the 200-dma there is strong Fib support in the 313-315 area--38% retracement of the March-May rally and 50% of the November-March decline. Daily chart: Link

The bulls need to get BIDU at least up through its downtrend line from May, currently near 350. If it can bounce up to the line by the end of next week it will also meet Fib resistance there (342-344). Obviously the bears win if the current bounce turns back down and breaks below 312, in which case BIDU should head down to the 290-300 area next.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2008 12:55:23 PM

Not optimal for bulls, is it, but perhaps it's not surprising that dips would be a bit deeper than would be hoped. OEX bulls do not want this dip to get much deeper, however, as the OEX is testing the 15-minute 45-ema. If it gives way on 15-minute closes and doesn't quickly bounce, the OEX sets a potential downside target of 608.41. For now, however, I would just assume that we're getting a test of the lower support band and that, if the OEX heads lower, support could also kick in about 612-613.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 12:55:12 PM

gains begin to fade as BIX.X 191.71 -3.66%, BKX.X 64.97 -2.34% and IUX.X 294.18 -0.12% provide the drag.

James Brown : 6/13/2008 12:54:33 PM

Steel Dynamics (STLD) is showing a lot of strength today. The stock is up 7.2% and challenging resistance near $40.00 after raising its Q2 estimates last night. A breakout over $40.00 would definitely be bullish. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting a $50 target.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2008 12:37:11 PM

The VIX verges on setting a new short-term downside target of 20.78, but bulls need to be careful if they see it sustaining values back above about 22 because that may signal a climb toward 22.66 instead. The VIX is currently 21.76.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 12:35:38 PM

CAL $13.38 +7.38% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 12:35:19 PM

FXE $154.02 -0.28% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 12:34:56 PM

USO $109.62 -1.48% ... slips back under DAILY Pivot.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2008 12:33:16 PM

The OEX's 15-minute 9-ema is now at 616, with further potential support on 15-minute closes at 614.20-614.78. Equity bulls would prefer that the 15-minute 9-ema hold as support on those closes or at least the lower level. This better preserves teh chance that the OEX will go on battering away at what's proving to be tough resistance, now layered from 616.99-618.05 on 15-minute closes.

James Brown : 6/13/2008 12:32:43 PM

The big oil companies are claiming that their profits are only 8.3% of their revenues.

James Brown : 6/13/2008 12:30:48 PM

CNBC ran an interesting graphic a few minutes ago. They were breaking down the input costs for $4.00/gallon gasoline.

$0.30 Distribution and marketing
$0.35 Refining costs
$0.50 Federal, State and Local taxes
$2.85 Crude oil

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 12:27:24 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 6/13/2008 12:27:03 PM

Not a whole lot happening here. Looks like a summer kind of Friday--initial move followed by a flat market as traders button up for the weekend.

Tab Gilles : 6/13/2008 12:18:08 PM

Apple (AAPL) bounced off its 100-ema this morning. Link

Google (GOOG) has found the 100-ema as support over the last few months. Link

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 12:08:37 PM

CAL $13.34 +7.06% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 12:08:00 PM

FXE $153.93 -0.34% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 12:07:25 PM

USO $110.16 -0.99% ... above its DAILY Pivot. Session highs.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 12:00:16 PM

FXE $153.89 -0.36% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 11:59:50 AM

For the first time this week, the USO's DAILY Pivot holds resistance.

Keene Little : 6/13/2008 11:44:00 AM

The bounce off the low near 11:00 AM is not all that impressive and could be part of a larger pullback pattern. If we get another leg down I'll be watching for where it will have two equal legs down to see if it finds support for another rally leg. In the meantime we're just consolidating.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2008 11:37:07 AM

The A/D line's 15-minute 9-ema is now 1155 with further support layered down to 886. Equity bulls would like to see that support hold on 15-minute closes. So far, so good, but remember how iffy things remain out there.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2008 11:35:54 AM

The OEX's 15-minute 9-ema is now 615.57 with further potential support on 15-minute closes firming up near 612.72-613.83. Potential resistance on 15-minute closes is up to 618.66.

James Brown : 6/13/2008 11:30:05 AM

Trading Idea: Corning Inc. (GLW) - Weeks ago there was a lot of talk about how GLW might benefit from consumers spending their stimulus checks on flat-panel TVs. That's debatable given the staggering rise in oil and fuel. However, shares of GLW are rebounding from the bottom of the rising channel. This might be a new bullish entry point. chart: Link

James Brown : 6/13/2008 11:23:57 AM

Another airline contributing to the XAL index's 3.8% gain is Continental Air (CAL) , which is up 7.5% to $13.40 after being upgraded this morning.

James Brown : 6/13/2008 11:19:03 AM

Some of the Mining stocks are up today..

Freeport McMoran (FCX) is up sharply, +4.2%, and the MACD on the daily chart has produced a new buy signal.

Southern Copper (PCU)'s trend is weaker than FCX's but the stock is up 3.1%.

Mining equipment provider Joy Global (JOYG) is up 4% and rival Bucyrus (BUCY) is also up 4%.

James Brown : 6/13/2008 11:14:02 AM

Coal stocks are on fire again....

ANR... +4.7% to $92.85 - new all-time high
MEE... +3.7% to $78.92 - new all-time high
BTU... +2.4% to $77.83
ACI... +2.5% to $70.61
JRCC.. +3.6% to $47.00 - near a new all-time high
CNX... +2.6% to $104.65
PCX... +1.8% to $143.21 - near a new all-time high
FDG... +0.38% to $83.32

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 11:11:59 AM

Euro CurrencyShares (FXE) $153.65 -0.52% ...

US Oil Fund (USO) $109.39 -1.68% ...

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2008 11:11:58 AM

The USDJPY is 108.00. It's pulled back a little from its test of its daily 200-sma, at 108.24, but it hasn't pulled back much yet and equity bulls would like to see any pullbacks remain shallow. Keep it on your radar screen.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 11:10:21 AM

The euro has broken to a 2.5-month low versus the dollar on an intra-day basis. Should euro weakness persist, then action after July's oil futures expiration will be deemed HIGHLY important by this analyst.

It has been my observation that the STRENGTH in the euro versus the dollar as been partially responsible for oil's rise.

Today's trade in the euro "should" begin to ring out some currency ties that traders have been playing.

It it down to the "speculators" an pure unadulterated supply and demand.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2008 11:09:21 AM

The OEX's 15-minute 9-ema is now 614.45 with further potential support on 15-minute closes now at 613.48. Bulls want this to hold on 15-minute closes to keep alive the probability that the OEX will go on testing resistance now from 617.07-617.85 on 15-minute closes. They don't want prices to keel over and drop through that average as they did yesterday.

James Brown : 6/13/2008 11:07:54 AM

More oil in Brazil...

There is a Reuters article out this morning about Petrobras (PBR), BG Group and Respol YPF have struck oil again in the Santos Basin, which is off the coast of Brazil. This is near the big Cariorca field recently discovered by PBR. story: Link

Keene Little : 6/13/2008 11:05:43 AM

Following the current pullback if we get another push higher it would complete a small 5-wave move up from yesterday's low and set up another slightly larger pullback. So we could be in for a period of consolidation near the highs for a while.

James Brown : 6/13/2008 10:57:59 AM

Microsoft (MSFT) is a big influence on the DJIA and the NDX with a 3.5% gain. The stock is breaking out over its 50 and 100-dma but challenging its trendline of resistance. chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 10:57:06 AM

OPEC once again making comments regarding global oil demand. Once again revising down its forecast for world oil demand growth this year, saying high oil prices are beginning to affect consumption in industrialized economies beyond the U.S.

James Brown : 6/13/2008 10:52:11 AM

.... The market's doing okay for a "Friday the 13th"...

This is considered a "day of bad luck" for most of the world. For more than you ever wanted to know about Friday the 13th... Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 10:50:26 AM

Keycorp (KEY) ... As a follow-up to yesterday's posting, KEY saying today that it has priced 10% more in common and preferred stock that it initially planned to sell, citing "strong investor response," despite the stock's plunge yesterday after the company's initial announcement.

James Brown : 6/13/2008 10:46:26 AM

Dow-component General Motors (GM) is still under performing. The stock is down about 1% to $15.60. The stock is trading near multi-decade lows.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2008 10:42:59 AM

TRIN is 1.10, with that a bit troublesome for equity bulls. Be aware that not all ducks are lined up on the bullish side. Bulls need to see the TRIN drop. The standard lore is that 1.00 is the benchmark, but the Keltner channels tell us that it needs to be lower, with 15-minute closes below 0.92.

James Brown : 6/13/2008 10:42:04 AM

I just glanced at CME Group , the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Chicago Board of Trade, and it's up almost 2.5% to $406. This is starting to look like a (short-term) bullish breakout from its recent consolidation. The overall trend still looks bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 10:41:01 AM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $48.23 +1.70%, MSFT $29.46 +4.32%, YHOO $22.14 -5.86%, GE $28.71 -1.17%, AAPL $171.04 -1.28%, SPY $135.93 +1.10%, CSCO $26.45 +1.88%, INTC $22.64 +2.67%, FITB $13.08 -10.95%, KEY $11.68 -2.50%

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2008 10:40:42 AM

For reference, the OEX's weekly 200-sma is now 612.13 and the 200-ema, at 621.09.

James Brown : 6/13/2008 10:39:37 AM

The NASDAQ Stock Market (NDAQ) is rebounding. The stock was downgraded this morning and shares dropped almost -5% to $30.50 but now NDAQ is bouncing and back in the green +0.4%. Shares still have a bearish trend of lower highs and short-term resistance at the 10-dma.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2008 10:38:20 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: Again this morning, the A/D line is in breakout mode on the 15-minute chart. This is similar to yesterday morning's action, so if you're in bullish trades, you don't want the rest of yesterday's action to be repeated. You want support to be found on 15-minute closes at the 15-minute 9-ema now at 1005. The A/D line is now 1474.

James Brown : 6/13/2008 10:35:55 AM

The airlines are out performing today and boosting the group is US Airways (LCC) , which is up 17% to $3.15 after being upgraded this morning to a "buy".

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2008 10:34:45 AM

I've been called out of town, I'll sign in as often as possible. Signs of a possible advance were found yesterday in the VIX and USDJPY action, among others. I kept saying yesterday that I felt silly warning bears to be wary, but still felt I ought to mention those signs. Right now, however, I wanted to say that the OEX rose up to test potential Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes at 617.17-617.52. It appears to be holding for the time being. RSI is also above 70. Although that's not a guarantee of any pullback as some of the strongest trending moves occur with oscillators are already showing overdone levels, it still cautions bulls to watch for consolidation or a pullback. If there's a pullback, bulls would prefer that the OEX find support on 15-minute closes at 613.33-613.93.

Keene Little : 6/13/2008 10:31:34 AM

SPX is almost back up to its 100-dma near 1361 and just above that is the October downtrend line near 1364. The 30-min 100/130 moving averages are at 1363 and 1367. A 50% retracement of the decline from June 5th is just under 1368. So if the market pushes higher today, the 1361-1368 zone could be a tough nut to crack.

James Brown : 6/13/2008 10:31:33 AM

Another note on AAPL... I heard yesterday that the company was no longer commenting on Steve Jobs' health...

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 10:31:47 AM

About the same at the big board.

Weakening internals, such as the NH/NL starting to abate at the NASDAQ.

Bulls want to see some "catapult" like action today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2008 10:29:03 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

James Brown : 6/13/2008 10:28:00 AM

Grrr... I'm so frustrated about Apple (AAPL) . I was so close to adding it as a put play on June 9th but just couldn't pull the trigger! I suspect that this bounce is going to fail in the $177.50-182.50 region but that's pure speculation at this point. Check out this chart as AAPL bounces near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which would be considered as a bullish development. chart: Link

Keene Little : 6/13/2008 10:21:28 AM

With consumer sentiment continuing to decline, keep this chart in mind for your longer-term planning: Link . When CS turns down so too does the market (with a recession as consumers slow down their spending). But look at what the stock market has been doing since the bounce in CS to the 2004 high--they've diverged. I don't think this divergence will last much longer and I don't think it will be CS that does the reversal. The credit expansion made it possible for the stock market rally (and real estate and commodities) but that's in the process of being unwound.

James Brown : 6/13/2008 10:19:20 AM

Sector Losers this morning...
BIX banking index ........ -1.34%
HMO healthcare index.... -0.14%
GHA computer hardware... -0.12%

James Brown : 6/13/2008 10:17:47 AM

Sector leaders this morning...
XAL airlines index ........... +4.4%
XBD broker-dealer index... +2.8%
DJUSRR railroad index ..... +2.8%
SOX semiconductor index..... +2.4%
RLX retail index ............. +2.0%
CYC cyclical index .......... +1.9%
OSX oil services index..... +1.8%

Keene Little : 6/13/2008 10:13:28 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The consumer sentiment index in June fell to 56.7 from 59.8 in May, according to Friday media reports on the reading from the University of Michigan/Reuters. Consumer sentiment has declined in recent months amid escalating fuel and food costs. The current economic conditions index fell to 68.7 from 73.3.

Keene Little : 6/13/2008 10:08:48 AM

Suspicious or not, that 100-point pop up in the DOW after this morning's pullback looks pretty impressive.

James Brown : 6/13/2008 10:08:46 AM

Trading idea: I probably would not chase it here but Allied Waste (AW) continues to rally and shares just broke out to new two-year highs. Looking at the long-term chart AW has significant resistance in the $14.25-14.50 zone. A failed rally in this zone might be a bearish entry point. Link

Keene Little : 6/13/2008 10:04:33 AM

Banks (BIX) still can't get up off the mat and spiked down this morning. But unless it's getting ready to drop hard the price pattern over the past few days, as it chops lower, looks more like an ending pattern and setting up a bigger bounce. Obviously without the banks any equity rally has to viewed suspiciously.

James Brown : 6/13/2008 10:01:43 AM

Asian market update...
Chinese Shanghai Composite.... -3.0%
Hong Kong Hang Seng ............ -1.8%

Japanese NIKKEI 225 index ..... +0.6%

European markets...
French CAC 40 .............. -0.48%
German DAX ............... -0.09%
English FTSE 100 ......... -0.56%

Keene Little : 6/13/2008 10:01:10 AM

NQ is the only one to close its gap so far and now we're getting another strong bounce. If we get new daily highs that hold, that should be it for the morning pullback.

Keene Little : 6/13/2008 9:46:11 AM

AAPL is still not doing well and has now made a clean break below its 50-dma. Some of the other big cap techs are OK but not stellar this morning and that continues to warn us of possible trouble with this morning's rally.

Keene Little : 6/13/2008 9:36:30 AM

I see USO is down again this morning but it's still within its trading range since last Friday's high. If the pullback stops at the bottom of what looks like a sideways triangle, currently near 107.30 (printing 108.60 here) then we could get a bullish resolution out of the triangle consolidation pattern. It would be pointing to the last leg up (out of the trianlge) and upside potential in that case could be 116-120.

Keene Little : 6/13/2008 9:33:01 AM

Linda emailed me to let me know she has to deal with a minor family emergency today and said she would check in when she can but it will likely be sporadic today.

Keene Little : 6/13/2008 9:16:45 AM

Equity futures reacted positively to the CPI data and we've got another gap up to start the day. As I mentioned last night, I think this gap up will stick and would be surprised (again) if they drop down to close the gaps today. But if they do get closed I would look at it as a buying opportunity.

BTW, I never commented on it yesterday but with SPX dropping down to a minor new low, below Wednesday's, it finally closed that April 16th gap. Amazing what strong magnets gaps can be.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2008 8:53:33 AM

Remember today you have the 10:009:55 Mid-Jun Reuters/U Mich Sentiment Index: Previous: 59.8.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2008 8:49:55 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in six months in May, bolstered by surging energy prices, the Labor Department reported Friday.

The seasonally adjusted consumer price index rose 0.6% in May, worse than the 0.5% gain expected by economists. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.2% as expected.

The CPI rose 0.2% in April, and core prices were up 0.1%.

In May, energy prices rose 4.4% after seasonal adjustments, the biggest gain since November. Gasoline prices rose 5.7% after seasonal adjustments.

Food prices rose 0.3%, with beef prices up 1.5%, while dairy, pork and fruit prices fell.

The CPI is up 4.2% in the past year and has risen at a 4.9% annual pace over the past three months. Inflation has overtaken weak growth as the top concern for financial markets and for some officials at the Federal Reserve.

While headline inflation has been red hot due to soaring crude oil prices, core measures of inflation have barely budged, a comforting sign that an inflationary spiral has not taken hold.

The core CPI is up 2.3% in the past year, and has risen at a modest 1.8% annual pace over the past three months.

Linda Piazza : 6/13/2008 7:41:49 AM

I have been called out of town and will not be on the Market Monitor at the open this morning. I'll try to sign in later this morning.

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