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Jeff Bailey : 6/25/2008 3:14:33 AM

CME's Aug'08, Nov'08, Feb'09 and May'09 Regional Housing Futures table that I track at this Link

Will finalize on 06/30, but that's the most green we've seen for quite some time.

Jeff Bailey : 6/25/2008 1:38:15 AM

Japan's May trade surplus falls 7.6% ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 10:51:01 PM

Today's number of NL's among SPX components more than I would have expected with financials getting a modest bounce.

See Tuesday's 04:03:03

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 10:44:43 PM

World Bullish % Bell Curve at tonight's close Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 10:38:21 PM

Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) Link (50-point box) ... down 204 points, or -1.48% at 13,645.

100-point Link (See also late yesterday postings)

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 10:23:46 PM

Dorsey's NYSE Bullish % also slipping further to 39.95% (40.00% on chart) and still "bull correction" status.

Here's StockCharts.com's version Link and component charts tracked Link

Note: The primary reason we'll not a difference from time-to-time in Dorsey's bullish % is that they only honor pure supply/demand. StockCharts.com does go back and "adjust" their charts (PnF and Bar) for payment of dividends. Larger dividend paying stocks' charts may not show true highs and lows. For instance, a stock that pays a $0.25/quarter dividend; stockcharts will adjust that stock's price LOWER dating clear back to inception when the dividend is paid. If a stock had traded up to $50.00 the quarter before, StockCharts' chart would show it having only traded $47.75. If a stock had traded down to $50.05, StockCharts would show the stock having traded $49.80.

Keene Little : 6/24/2008 10:11:39 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

I was looking for a low on Tuesday morning and a reversal and we got that. Now I'm looking for at least an a-b-c bounce off Tuesday morning's low to correct the leg down from last Thursday, June 19th. So far it looks like we got wave-a up, wave-b pullback and now we need wave-c up Wednesday morning: Link

Two equal legs up for SPX (if it starts rallying right away on Wednesday) would be at 1332.87. If it drops a little lower first thing Wednesday morning before rallying then the projection is also lowered. This would bring SPX up to its downtrend line from June 5th. The dark red EW count is very bearish and suggests a crash leg down is coming. These are rare setups and quite frankly hard to trust. Just be ready for the possibility.

The other possibility is for a larger upward correction against the decline from May 19th and as the daily chart shows, it could bounce back up to the 1370 area over the next few weeks (not in a straight line of course) before setting up the next decline: Link

The interesting thing about the DOW's setup is that two equal legs up in its bounce off Tuesday's low is at 11959 and this matches the broken uptrend line from January (the bottom of the shallow up-channel), which was broken on Friday. A kiss goodbye there would be very bearish, especially with the bearish wave pattern potential (like for SPX). A rally above 12K would likely mean we'll see a larger upward correction into at least mid July. Daily chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 10:10:20 PM

Reviewing Dorsey's BPALL ... slipped to 37.16% (from last night's 38.37%) and still "bull correction" at 37.16% (38.00% on chart). This is very close to the 38.00% "bull confirmed" measure from early April.

OI Technical Staff : 6/24/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 9:50:23 PM

TWM 60-minute interval chart with MONTHLY Pivot retracement, QCharts' WKLY Pivot Levels and "Bailey Wave" Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 9:44:42 PM

ProShares UltraShort Russell 2000 (TWM) finished $75.33 +2.82%. First close above its 200-day SMA since falling below on 05/12/08. Did manage to close above its MONTHLY 80.9% of $75.11. WKLY R2 waaaaasn't quite traded today at $75.48.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 9:39:53 PM

Most Actives were ... SPY $131.13 -0.24%, XLF $21.74 +1.21%, QQQQ $46.81 -0.51%, IWM $70.70 -1.65%, F $5.32 +0.75%, C $18.85 +1.61%, YHOO $22.04 +2.75%, BAC $26.62 +2.85%, WB $17.86 +5.55%, MSFT $27.73 -0.85%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 9:34:15 PM

Today's Global Economic Calendar Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 9:28:14 PM

Japan's merchandise trade surplus in May was Y363.61 billion, down 7.6% on year.

Surplus was better than economists' forecast of Y3.2 billion versus year-ago Y395.5 billion.

Yen CurrencyShares (FXY) finished 92.54 +0.01% ... I've got the yen up 14.52% for 52-weeks.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 9:22:46 PM

Japan releasing its May trade figures.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 9:05:21 PM

I think Fed stands steady at 2.00% tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 9:01:48 PM

Today's DXY action in response to the 10:00 AM EDT release of consumer confidence is notable.

See the 5-year Yields ($FVX.X) response too?

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 8:49:21 PM

Dow Chemical Raising Prices By Another 25% ... AP Story Link

Note freight surcharges for truck versus rail.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 8:22:44 PM

Linda! ... you can look at a chart of the $IRX.X Link as it is the 13-week Treasury Yield. 13-week is 3-months.

TED spread is interesting, but it also speaks to what I've talked about for YEARS here at OptionInvestor.com.

Think of the 13-week as a Certificate of Deposit. Know where the Fed Funds Target is at (2.00%).

On 03/20/08 buyers were gobbling up the 13-week's yield all the way down to 0.20% in what I deemed as "overly defensive" action. Why would anyone in their right mind be buying a 0.20% yield? Defensive right? Right!

Fed Fund Futures for June, July, Auguts range 98.00 to 97.92 respectively.

Then think about RISK and REWARD. A couple of weeks ago I said we were "on the alert" as the IRX.X approached 2.00%. If the Fed were to hike rates 25 bp tomorrow, what should the IRX.X do?

Treasury's Paulson also commented on the importance of LIBOR today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 8:04:29 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 8:00:29 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 7:47:36 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $131.77 -1.55% ... don't forget that upward trend from 03/20 low to 6/13 low. PTR-SD are $2.05 x $2.30 with VIX.X 22.42 today.

I was monitoring PTR intra-day and trades at $1.42 and $1.45 were crossed above the then current bid of $1.30 and below the then current offer of $1.55.

PTR gapped lower, then back filled gap up to about the time we exited the day trade long in CAL.

PTR certainly trading more like a refiner / producer, than a pure refiner and producer. With China raising some refined fuel price caps last week, the "margin" is limited.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 4:07:52 PM

What I'm not sure about is how an upcoming FOMC meeting might impact the TED spread. Is it normal for the spread to widen into a FOMC meeting? Since it's derived from the difference in interest rates for three-month T-bills and the three-month LIBOR, I would think it could be impacted by the upcoming FOMC meeting, so the newbie that I am studying this, I'm not sure how much credence to give the widening TED spread into an FOMC meeting.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 4:05:01 PM

The TED spread is 0.99. As I said yesterday, I don't like this a bit. My admittedly anecdotal study of the TED spread, accomplished with limited charting resources when the TED spread was already in an aberrant mode, suggested that it could be dangerous (for credit markets and then, of course, equity markets) for it to approach 0.99 after hitting the support it was hitting about three weeks ago. I can't chart this on my own charting service and so am limited to what Bloomberg provides on its site, but here's my Trader's Corner article about it from the June 7 newsletter: Link I look at the charts and see a possibility for a bounce and I look at this and want to hide under the bed. Or hide my money under the bed.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 4:03:03 PM

I don't get SPX and RUT's until later in the evening.

Yesterday's SPX NH/NL was 12:46 with 5-day 21.6% and 10-day 19.7%.

RUT's was 33:141 with 5-day 23.9% and 10-day 21.1%

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 4:01:17 PM

Into the close ... NYSE NH/NL 46:402 ; NASDAQ 43:349

Keene Little : 6/24/2008 3:55:45 PM

I'm having trouble getting a chart to upload but basically I wanted to show that the SPX 60-min chart has the same setup as I showed in the chart posted at 12:40 PM. A reversal back up and two equal legs up from this morning's low would have SPX potentially finding resistance near 1331 and its downtrend line from June 5th. That's the setup and now we'll see if we get the next leg up tomorrow morning. Could be a good short play setup in front of FOMC.

James Brown : 6/24/2008 3:55:22 PM

...noticing that the oversold bounce in PetroChina (PTR) is now failing since it has filled this morning's gap...

If you follow the trendline of support over the last several weeks it looks like PTR might trade down toward $125.00-120.00. Currently -2.24 to $131.61.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 3:50:30 PM

I guess we know where the powers-that-be want the OEX parked into the FOMC meeting. Friday's close was 597.13; yesterday's, 597.28. As I type, the OEX is 597.60.

James Brown : 6/24/2008 3:50:19 PM

Where is the Window Dressing for the fertilizer-chemical stocks???

Looks like a bearish reversal in progress. Has this group put in a TOP?

AGU...reversing lower, -5.5%, testing possible support near $105 and 10-dma.

TRA... plunging toward round-number support at $50.00, breaking the 10-dma, losing 8%

CF... a bearish candlestick, -4.8% and testing support near $160 and 10-dma.

MOS... -5.2% and trading toward the $140 zone.

MON... rolling over, new MACD sell signal, -4.7%

POT... -3.9%, breaking its 10-dma.

IPI ... HUGE bearish engulfing candlestick, -7.4%

SQM.. also a BIG bearish engulfing candlestick, -5%, still possible support near $50.00 and 10-dma.

TNH.. only down 2.8%

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 3:47:40 PM

Monitoring Dynamic Materials' (BOOM) $33.49 -4.06% Level II as it probes May 6th lows.

James Brown : 6/24/2008 3:45:28 PM

The rally in coal stocks is struggling today....could we be witnessing a potential top?

BTU is seeing its rally fail near its trendline of higher highs.
ACI is creating a small bearish engulfing candlestick.
JRCC is seeing a huge reversal, down 9.2%.
MEE producing a bearish engulfing candlestick, -4.3%.
PCX looking worse than its peers, down 4 days in a row, breaking the $140 level.
ANR...breaking down under its 10-dma following yesterday's failed rally near $100.
WLT... bearish engulfing candlestick pattern and an intraday failed rally under $105 today.

ARLP.. holding up...
CNX... only down 2.4%.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 3:46:17 PM

Here's the OEX's daily chart, showing how the OEX performs with respect to a price channel's boundaries: Link The OEX tends to consolidate 2-5 days at swing lows before moving up again, so if there's another consolidation-type candle, as it appears there could be, the OEX will have met its usual minimum of two days before next direction is determined. If you're bearish, you think one thing is going to happen; if bullish, another. I don't know.

FWIW, you might be wondering about that Fib bracket that's visible. What's it anchored to? For those of you who might have concluded I'm too bullish since the middle of last week, when I've been thinking there might be a bounce any time, you might be surprised. The top is anchored to the October 2007 high. I did not then use any target to anchor the bottom, but instead went through a what-if exercise. We often see a broad consolidation band such as that seen since Jan-May this year, form about midway through a strong move. What if this consolidation is not the bottom but is midway through the move? So, I put the 50% level of that Fib bracket about in the middle of that consolidation zone, eyeballing it about 621. What I found then was that the January-May action fit rather well with the support being near the 38.2% level (the line just under 594) of that bracket and the resistance near the 61.8% level. I'm actually not happy to see it fit so well, but now I've got a what-if target. You really don't want to know what it is, but it's about 506-508.

I'm not saying the OEX will hit this level. This was just a what-if exercise. But I certainly am interested in seeing the OEX and other markets prove that what-if exercise one done in vain.

James Brown : 6/24/2008 3:40:38 PM

... noting that the water transport (shipping stocks) and the railroads, and the airlines are all down today.

Railroads -
BNI is testing support near $100.
UNP is breaking down under its 50-dma and the $75.00 level.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 3:33:11 PM

In my 1:57:50 post, I noted that the TRIN was being squeezed between support and resistance, and would likely expand its range a bit. I'd noted potential resistance at 0.53 on 15-minute closes with the next level then at 0.79. TRIN is now 0.59, with the more significant overhead potential resistance on 15-minute closes now descended to 0.73. It's unclear yet whether TRIN can rise to test that resistance, but it's certainly a possibility and equities may drop further if it does so. Equity bulls want that resistance to hold, although we may not be able to see how this plays out as we may run out of time first. So far, I have to warn bears as I did earlier that the actual number is not supporting their trades. The very short-term trend now is, but keep it in the right context as the TRIN has shown weakness and inability to push above significant resistance all day. It can turn back down as easily as it turned up.

Keene Little : 6/24/2008 3:26:04 PM

SPX is now close to a 50% retracement at 1314.80 and slightly lower is 62% at 1312.35. But the lows of the pullback should be about it and we should see a reversal back up at any time. Of course "should" and "will" are entirely two different words in the market.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 3:19:38 PM

A 50% retracement of the day's bounce is now at about 597.50. We often find support kick in near a 50% retracement level, but bulls now need to see the OEX back above that 15-minute 9-ema now at 599.53, maintaining values above it.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 3:19:23 PM

What the TRIN tells us so far this week, withing the WKLY Pivots, is that Monday's sell-side pressure about average, or "mid-point" of last week's sell-side pressure.

Today's WKLY R1 was rather "extreme" buy-side relative to last week.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 3:16:52 PM

TRIN 0.55 now ... WKLY Pivot at Monday's open, below WKLY S1 most of today.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 3:16:40 PM

The OEX closed the previous 15-minute period above the potential Keltner support on 15-minute closes at 599.09, but it doesn't look as if it will this one.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 3:15:27 PM

TRINQ 0.80 now

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 3:15:14 PM

As we enter the last hour of trading today, it's time to consider what happens tonight and tomorrow that could impact your trades. Lots. First, as I said yesterday, we have to factor in the "fear of the Fed" reaction. Today's weak economic numbers may actually have lessened that fear a little so that many now have an expectation of strong inflation talk but no rate hike. But still we must be cognizant that everything is being examined in the context of tomorrow's decision and how a portfolio should be positioned ahead of that decision. I, too, advise our readers to carefully examine how much risk they're taking home with them and whether they feel comfortable with that risk.

So, on to the developments. Tonight at 7:50 pm ET, the Bank of Japan releases figures on the prices of services purchased by corporations, one measure of inflation. Tomorrow morning at 4:30 am ET, EBC President Trichet testifies in Brussels at a quarterly hearing with the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament. What he says there could certainly roil currency markets.

At 8:30 am ET, our economic reports start rolling in with two biggees. Those are durable goods and new home sales. General Mills (GIS) reports before the market opens, but most other important companies either don't have a specified time listed or else report after the close tomorrow. James has been covering some of those.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 3:13:07 PM

Most Actives ... SPY $131.51 +0.04%, QQQQ $46.93 -0.27%, XLF $21.63 +0.69%, YHOO $21.87 +1.95%, MSFT $27.84 -0.46%, UYG $22.91 +1.95%, INTC $22.59 +1.02%, SIRI $1.85 -4.14%, PFE $17.71 +1.89%, WFC $25.07 +3.33%

Keene Little : 6/24/2008 3:05:38 PM

SPX has now retraced its 38% (1317.24) so look for the start of another rally. From a very short term perspective though I can see the possibility for one more last stab lower in its pullback so be careful (if you're trying a long play) for a quick drop and reversal back up.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 2:59:49 PM

Bears need to be able to build on the short-term weakness that brought the OEX back to test this potential support level on 15-minute closes. Otherwise, some of those who were waiting out the end of the day to make their decisions will start covering if they realize there's not going to be any big pullback. So, this is a crucial time as we approach the end of the bond trading for the day.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 2:48:39 PM

Next OEX potential support is from 598.96-599.03.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 2:40:46 PM

Somebody's doing some buying today ... TRIN 0.48 and TRINQ 0.46

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 2:38:23 PM

We just have to wait it out and see whether there's a further OEX retreat toward 599.20-600.06, potential support on 15- and 30-minute closes, respectively, or another punch up toward 601.92-603.20, a potential resistance zone. Charts aren't giving strong guidelines of which will happen, although that potential resistance looks strong.

James Brown : 6/24/2008 2:37:08 PM

A few more companies that report earnings tomorrow....

General Mills (GIS)... reports before the market open. Estimates $0.71/share.
Nike (NKE) ... reports after the market close. Estimates $0.96/share.
Oracle (ORCL) ... reports after the market close. Estimates $0.44/share.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 2:35:27 PM

AMR $5.90 +2.96% ... still have our exposure, but with options.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 2:34:37 PM

My thinking on CAL is that it would take a lot of short covering with USO above DAILY Pivot to get CAL up to target.

Market doesn't look ready to that yet. RUT.X 716.04 -0.52% .... hasn't been green today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 2:32:42 PM

CAL $12.06 +0.83% ... DAILY Pivot up at $12.81 with WKLY S1 $12.87.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 2:31:05 PM

USO $110.85 -0.06% ... has edged back above its DAILy Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 2:30:39 PM

Day trade long exit alert! ... for the 1/2 position in Continental Airlines (CAL) at the bid of $12.03

James Brown : 6/24/2008 2:26:34 PM

Trading Idea: Monsanto Co. (MON) - MON could be another earnings play where traders could speculate on a big, post-earning move. The agriculture-fertilizer stocks have been huge winners this year so there could be a lot of built up expectations. If they disappoint or if they crush the numbers the stock could see a big move.

Today is your last chance to open any positions ahead of earnings, which are due out tomorrow morning before the opening bell. Analysts' estimates are at $1.34 a share.

The last couple of earnings reports produced $7.00-8.00 moves.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 2:23:56 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 6/24/2008 2:23:41 PM

I've been watching the consolidation pattern near today's highs for some evidence of what will follow. Right now it would look best with a sharp little drop back down to then set up the next rally leg. A 38% retracement of the the leg up to the high near 12:30 PM would be a good spot to watch for the setup. But I'm not sure we'll get that pullback first--it's holding up pretty well.

James Brown : 6/24/2008 2:21:35 PM

A couple of more companies that report earnings after the closing bell tonight are:

Darden Restaurants (DRI) consensus estimate is $0.75
Jabil Circuit (JBL) consensus estimate is $0.20

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 2:20:06 PM

The SPX has potential resistance on 15-minute closes at 1327.05-1327.50. That's holding so far. In addition, the 38.2% retracement of the SPX's plunge from the 6/17 high into this morning's low is at about 1328.14. It may be that this is going to be particularly tough for SPX bulls unless they can prop prices up long enough to induce another group of bears to cover and help fuel a further rise.

If the SPX can't get past this resistance, then bulls would like to see it chop around above Keltner support, now angling down to 1318.53 on the 15-minute chart and to 1320.71 on the 30-minute chart. Bulls would like to see 15- and 30-minute closes above these respective levels.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 2:15:50 PM

The OEX's potential resistance on 15-minute closes is holding, and the OEX is getting knocked back from this attempt to push through. The 9-ema is now 600.39, and bulls would like to see this hold on 15-minute closes. If not, the more reliable 30-minute version is at 599.90, and bulls would definitely like to see that hold. It may be that the Fib, historical and short-term Keltner resistance all converging in the 602-603.50 zone may be particularly tough to get through. Bulls need to keep the OEX from falling back far so that bears will keep covering ahead of tomorrow and drive prices higher. If bulls prove to be weak hands, though, and do the caving, a retreat toward 598-599 could be swift, and a failure there could produce a deeper drop toward 596. So far, though, the OEX holds up well, and is at 601.10 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 2:12:56 PM

Day trade long raise stop alert! ... for the 1/2 position in Continental Airlines (CAL) $12.10 +1.17% ... to break even.

James Brown : 6/24/2008 2:12:42 PM

Here's a little follow up on RIMM with a chart showing the reaction to its last four earnings reports. chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 2:06:42 PM

The OEX is pushing up to test the day's high of 602.21 and also the potential Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes that I've been mentioning for the last few hours. Here's the chart: Link Traders should note that there's also a 38.2% retracement of the decline off the 6/17 high at about 603.35, so if the OEX clears that resistance on 15-minute closes, bulls want it to then hold as support as that Fib level is tested. Bulls need to be careful here.

James Brown : 6/24/2008 2:03:39 PM

Trading Idea - Research In Motion (RIMM) Traders have today and tomorrow if they want to speculate on some post-earnings volatility in RIMM. The company is due to report earnings on June 25th (tomorrow) after the closing bell. Analysts' estimates are for a profit of 85 cents a share.

If you look at the last four earnings reports... three of the last four reports produced a move in excess of $10. The latest report in April was more of a dud with only an $8.00 move.

You could try some sort of neutral strategy like a straddle or a strangle. My concern is that the options look pricey so a straddle may not pay off.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 2:03:33 PM

FOMC Meeting Begins On Schedule.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 1:57:50 PM

TRIN is currently 0.45, being squeezed between support on 15-minute closes at 0.45 and resistance at 0.49. A wider support/resistance band extends from 0.39-0.53, and I'd expect that's likely to be tested. Equity bulls would like to see the 0.53 level hold as resistance on 15-minute closes if it's tested, but, if not, the next resistance is at 0.79.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 1:55:15 PM

Or ... like those found in China.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 1:55:02 PM

White House threatening to veto a bill that would give federal authorities the power to impose criminal penalties on large gasoline and diesel distributors that gouge consumers by charting inflated prices. The Office of Management and Budget said that the bill could result in gasoline price controls and "in some cases bring back long gas lines reminiscent of the 1970's."

James Brown : 6/24/2008 1:54:48 PM

Target achieved - OI put play - E*Trade Financial (ETFC) spiked lower this morning and hit our first target at $3.25 this morning. The banking and financial sectors are bouncing sharply and ETFC has recovered to a -2.5% loss. ETFC was down 7.4% at its worst levels today.

James Brown : 6/24/2008 1:51:40 PM

OI Put play - Caterpillar (CAT) is down 2.9% and testing technical support at its 100-dma following some acquisition news this morning. Here is an excerpt from CAT's press release:

Caterpillar Inc., has reached an agreement to acquire all of the capital stock of MGE Equipamentos & Servicos Ferroviarios Ltda. (MGE). Based in Diadema and Hortolandia -- in Sao Paulo State, Brazil, MGE is a manufacturer and reconditioner of traction motors, main and auxiliary generators, control equipment and auxiliary components for locomotives and transit cars. In addition, MGE maintains, modernizes and rebuilds transit cars and locomotives.

James Brown : 6/24/2008 1:47:27 PM

Another failed rebound? Apple Inc. (AAPL) -- It is interesting to note that yesterday AAPL's intraday bounce failed under the $176.00 level. Today the intraday bounce is also failing under the $176.00 level.

James Brown : 6/24/2008 1:43:39 PM

Entry Point: SPY - The same morning swoon pushed the S&P 500 toward 1300. We had an entry point to buy-the-dip in the SPY at $130.50.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 1:43:30 PM

We're entering a typical stop-running time of day, so be particularly careful as big money returns from lunch and tests the waters one direction or the other, seeing what results. It's the result that will be important and not just the fact that there's a test, if there is one.

With that said, the quiet lunchtime trading period has flattened the 15-minute 9-ema, as it sometimes does. Sometimes, when that happens, the OEX retreats toward the deeper support on 15-minute closes that's now at 598.59. That's a possibility today but not a given in this environment, in which pressured bears might begin to cover in more force if there aren't sufficient pullbacks. The potential resistance on 15-minute closes is where it's been most of the day, now at 601.86-602.36.

James Brown : 6/24/2008 1:41:02 PM

Entry Point: DIA - When the DJIA tagged its March lows this morning the Diamonds (DIA) etf hit our buy-the-dip entry point.

James Brown : 6/24/2008 1:36:35 PM

United Parcel Service (UPS) is down 3.9% following last night's earnings warning but shares are bouncing from their intraday lows of $62.83. It's interesting that in spite of the negative news traders still bought the dip at its weekly trendline of support. The question is will it last? chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 1:32:45 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $27.86 -0.39% ... rather quiet.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 1:32:11 PM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $22.19 +4.00% ... fast market trade on CNBC reports that deal may be back on with MSFT.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 1:26:16 PM

USO $110.27 -0.58% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 1:25:46 PM

Day trade long alert! ... for 1/2 position in shares of Continental Airlines (CAL) at the offer of $11.95. Stop goes $11.84. Target $12.80.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 1:16:29 PM

UYG's top weighted holdings as of last night's close were ... JPM, BAC, C, WFC, AIG, GS, USB

Holdings fact sheet Link

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 1:14:26 PM

Resistance from 601.80-602.41 on 15-minute closes is still stopping the OEX, and it's due now for a 15-minute 9-ema support test. That's at 599.81 but still rising. Further support is now at 598-598.62. Bulls want one of those to hold as support on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 1:13:56 PM

ProShares Ultra Financials (UYG) $23.24 +3.33% ... #4 most active? Not sure I've ever seen this one among top 10 most actives.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 1:00:08 PM

Sector Losers ... AMEX Nat. Gas -1.30%, Oil Service -1.01%, Dow Transports -0.70%, CBOE Oil -0.60%, NASDAQ Telecom -0.63%

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 12:58:42 PM

Sector Winners ... Home Construction +7.60%, Regional Banks +3.45%, Money Center Banks +2.82%, N. American Telecom +2.09%, Broker/Dealer +1.70%, Semiconductor +1.33%

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 12:55:53 PM

The OEX's 15-minute 9-ema is now 599.57 with further potential support on 15-minute closes down to 598.53. The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema and further support now converge near 1319.44. Bulls want these levels to hold as support on 15-minute closes.

Keene Little : 6/24/2008 12:40:53 PM

Short covering can be the bears' own worst enemy and we could see a continuation higher with only very small pullbacks. But in a "normal" rally, especially if it's to be a correction of the decline, we'll first see a pullback before continuing higher later today and into tomorrow. But whether we see a pullback first or not, the bulls will want to see SPX get above 1331, or slightly higher at its downtrend line from June 5th, currently near 1337, if it continues to push higher without much of a pullback. 60-min chart update: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 12:33:41 PM

BIX.X 187.96 +4.43% ... WKLY Pivot 190.29. Then MONTHLY S2 192.33.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 12:32:35 PM

Wells Fargo (WFC) $25.60 +5.52% ... shuffled up to #3 most active. Has cleared its WKLY Pivot of $25.29.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 12:29:43 PM

If the OEX should make it past the next resistance levels seen on the 15-minute chart, either today or tomorrow, an obvious place to watch for rollover potential is the descending daily 10-sma, now at 608.17 but still descending.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 12:23:38 PM

The SPX has finally made it above the resistance now at 1317.86-1318.98 but hasn't yet closely approached that at 1326.70-1328, potentially significant resistance on 15-minute closes. Those who want to see that next level more closely approached want pullbacks now to find support on 15-minute closes at that former resistance.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 12:21:47 PM

The OEX is now closely approaching that potentially significant resistance on 15-minute closes that I mentioned in my 11:24:08 post. That resistance has changed a bit and is now at 601.48-602.47. Now, if there's a pullback as this has been approached, bulls want to see 15-minute closes above the rising 9-ema, now at about 598.25. OEX at 599.61 as I type. Bulls would actually prefer a sideways move under that resistance while the 9-ema cycles a bit higher.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 12:18:14 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 12:10:27 PM

SPX.X 1,321.10 +0.23% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 12:10:08 PM

VIX.X 22.18 -2.03% ... edges under WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 12:06:20 PM

SIFMA: Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association saying it doesn't think Fed will hike rates until late 2008, 2009. Sees U.S. gross domestic product growth of 1.6% for full-year 2008 and 1.9% for 2009. Looks for inflation pressures to ease in 2009.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 11:57:37 AM

MBI $4.88 +1.24%

RDN $2.14 +7.00%

ABK $2.13 +11.51%

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 11:56:59 AM

DJUSHB 286.08 +2.07% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 11:56:31 AM

US Senate Clears Hurdle On Broad Housing Legislation

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 11:56:22 AM

TRIN is 0.44. Now it's dangerously (for bulls) low on a short-term basis. The 15-minute 9-ema is now 0.57, so equity bulls would like to see it find resistance there on 15-minute closes if it should pop higher, but it's possible that the pop could take it up to higher resistance, now at about 0.81.

Keene Little : 6/24/2008 11:51:55 AM

An even quicker day trade will be to short the next high, especially if it fails right around yesterday's mid-day high.

Keene Little : 6/24/2008 11:51:11 AM

Looking at the DOW and SPX, watch for a test of yesterday's mid-day high and then a pullback to correct the leg up off this morning's low. The pullback, which should retrace 38%-62% of the bounce, will be an opportunity to trade the long side (day trade only until we see what develops from here).

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 11:34:15 AM

I mentioned a potential inverse H&S on the BIX's chart, and it has of course confirmed that formation. If I'm counting correctly, that formation predicts an upside target of about 188.40-188.60, which of course would be retest of Friday morning's 188.27 high. Right now, though, it's not clear the BIX will get that high. It's challenging potentially significant Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes, now at 185.50. The BIX punched up to 185.63, but is now 184.13, having been knocked back a bit.

An interesting wrinkle occurs, too. If the BIX should now pull back to about 182 or so and then punch higher again, it may in fact be reforming into a larger inverse H&S with a neckline at that Keltner resistance. Either way, sustained 15-minute closes above that resistance would be a good sign of short-term strength for equity bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 11:29:12 AM

Sector Losers ... AMEX Nat. Gas -1.54%, Dow Transports -1.24%, Oil Service -0.95%

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 11:27:57 AM

Sector Winners ... Regional Banks +2.41%, Money Center Banks +2.03%, Home Construction +2.07%, N. Amer. Telecom +1.84%, Semiconductors +1.10%

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 11:24:08 AM

Shorts are surely helping fuel this quick burst higher, but, as Keene said earlier, we don't know what happens when they quit doing so. Some would have expected a breakdown and they're surprised by this climb, sure that they were seeing a breakdown in the making.

I hope that pointing out that potential support level this morning and the disparities in the TRIN and such measures helped convinced those of our subscribers in bearish positions to make their profit-protecting plans. Now it's time to let them kick in at the levels you decided on previously. Whatever you do, don't let a gain turn into a loss.

Now that we've gotten that out of the way, the Keltner channels suggest that there could be strong potential resistance in the 601.50-602.67 zone, resistance that could hold on 15-minute (and more) closes. So, if you're trading this on the bullish side, be aware of that potential resistance, the iffy state of the markets (including a TED spread at 0.98), and decide how you want to deal with a test of that resistance, if it occurs. Will you automatically take partial profits, snug up your stop, or maybe, if you're convinced that the bottom is in (I'm reserving judgment myself), maybe widen stops so you're not whipsawed out of the trade. Your decision.

Keene Little : 6/24/2008 11:21:42 AM

I guess I don't have to tell you the bottom is in for now. Look to buy the next pullback since the bounce off the bottom is now impulsive (so we have a trend change).

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 11:10:59 AM

The SPX has also managed a 15-minute close above its 15-minute 9-ema, now at 1312.91. The OEX is leading the way today, though, with the big caps there outperforming the broader SPX. The SPX hasn't yet managed to approach the next resistance level on 15-minute closes, now at 1317.33-1318.72 with the OEX already approaching its analogous level. Bulls want see the SPX maintain 15-minute closes above that 1312.91 level if it's knocked back now or after a test of that higher resistance level.

Keene Little : 6/24/2008 11:06:30 AM

Updating the DOW's 60-min chart you can see it found support at the bottom of its parallel down-channel: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 11:05:03 AM

There's the first OEX 15-minute close above the 15-minute 9-ema, now at 595.90. So far, so good, but the OEX now needs to maintain these 15-minute closes above this. It's hitting the next and more important level of resistance, now at about 597.68-598, so it could be pushed back to retest that 15-minute 9-ema.

Keene Little : 6/24/2008 11:04:19 AM

I was looking for a small consolidation and then a new low but this bounce is bigger than I expected. It's possible we've seen the low and a rally back above SPX 1319 would be confirmation of that. With the oversold conditions it won't take much to ignite a rally. The trouble is you don't know if it will last once the short covering is finished (whether it's 5 minutes worth of short covering or a couple of days worth.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 11:00:03 AM

TRIN 0.50. It's dropped back to test potential support again, now at 0.55 on 15-minute closes. Again, neither the TRIN's actual number nor its signs of weakness today is supporting bearish equity trades. That will remain true as long as it doesn't now bounce hard and maintain its gains. It's 15-minute 9-ema is now at 0.72, potential resistance on 15-minute closes. It's not definitive proof of anything because we have mixed information from various sources, except that bears need to be aware and protect their profits accordingly.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 10:49:17 AM

The OEX is still producing 15-minute closes above the potential support now at 592.93. It has not yet produced 15-minute closes above the 15-minute 9-ema, now at 594.96, and that would be just the first must-see step in showing even any slight improvement in tenor. OEX at 594.39 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 10:39:01 AM

The OEX's potential support on 15-minute closes is now about 593; for 30-minute closes, 592.63.

Keene Little : 6/24/2008 10:35:48 AM

We're getting the little consolidation so now ideally one more push to new lows to finish the leg down from last Thursday, June 19th. Whether a bounce (assuming we'll get one) corrects just that leg down or corrects the decline from May 19th is what I'm not sure about yet. Obviously the latter would be a bigger rally. But in either case watch for a new low with some bullish divergences to help confirm a bottom could be put in place. And then maybe rally at least into tomorrow's FOMC.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 10:32:19 AM

TRIN 0.69. So far, it's finding resistance on 15-minute closes at its 15-minute 9-ema, now at 0.80 and it's being turned back from that resistance test. So again, bears, this offers you a warning to be careful, although it's certainly no guarantee to bulls that the markets will bounce. However, TRIN is definitely not in bearish (for equities) territory, either by its number or by the way it's finding resistance where resistance would be expected. We'll have to see if it bounces again from potential support now from 0.52-0.57.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 10:30:58 AM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $46.61 -0.93%, SPY $130.53 -0.69%, MSFT $27.67 -1.07%, INTC $22.31 -0.22%, YHOO $20.83 -2.89%, SIRI $1.86 -3.62%, CMCSA $18.98 -0.88%, ETFC $3.29 -6.26%, XLF $21.22 -1.21%, F $5.32 +0.75%

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 10:27:52 AM

TED spread 0.98.

Jeff Bailey : 6/24/2008 10:27:07 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Note(s): It would currently take a closing measure of <=24.00% for the NYSE 5-day NH/NL ratio to see a 3-box reversal back lower.

It would currently take a closing measure of <=20.00% for the NASDAQ 5-day NH/NL ratio to reverse back lower.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 10:27:07 AM

The BIX has another potential inverse H&S showing up on its 15-minute chart, this one forming from 6/20 through today, with this morning's early dip being the right shoulder. The neckline slants sharply lower, so the right shoulder was actually lower than the head. It looks as if the neckline crosses now between 180.80-181.61, depending on whether all candle shadows are included or not. I would then want to see sustained 15-minute closes above 181.61 before I believed that the inverse H&S had been confirmed. I don't trade these formations or count on them to perform, but I do watch them for what they can tell me about the psychology of the markets.

I would think the BIX needs to confirm this sometime by mid-afternoon or else it might be invalidated by a too-long formation of the right shoulder. The BIX is currently 178.15.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 10:22:48 AM

The SPX did not maintain potential support from 1308.25-1309.71 on 15-minute closes. At 1308.25, it's just retesting. Its 15-minute 9-ema is now 1312.90; the next resistance 1381.54-1319.65.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 10:21:49 AM

The OEX produces a 15-minute close above potential support now at 593.26, so the support held on the 15-minute close despite being pierced intra-period. As I said, though, there have to be sustained 15-minute closes above the 15-minute 9-ema before there's even a minor change in tenor. That's now at 595.41. The next step would be sustained 15-minute closes above potential Keltner resistance now at 598.10.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 10:11:17 AM

The OEX is now being driven deeper into that 592.50-593 potential support zone (on 15- and 30-minute closes) that I mentioned earlier this morning. In fact, at 593.30 but with a current day's low of 592.27, the OEX dropped a little below that, but it was just an estimate of where an early drop might drive the potential Keltner support. If this doesn't hold and the OEX can't pop above the descending 15-minute 9-ema now at 595.69, there's potential for a drop into the next potential support zone that extends down to about 588.75.

Bears just need to carefully manage their positions as the drops have been steady and Fib brackets anchored to the 6/17 early morning high and today's early morning low show consolidation zones that fit quite nicely with the expected places. A 23.6% retracement would be at about 599.15-599.25, for example, where we saw attempts to reach up and test that resistance, tests that eventually failed. A 50% retracement would be at about 606.50-607.20, right in the middle of that several-day consolidation period from 6/17-6/19. This is no proof of anything except that the move is becoming extended and it's time to be careful with your bearish profits. I would always advise that anyway and do so often that the advice may be ignored, but don't ignore it.

Keene Little : 6/24/2008 10:03:57 AM

My feed is a little slow this morning and I see we already made a new low below the overnight lows. So let's see if we get a small consolidation and then a final low around SPX 1300. If it blows through 1300 then forget about looking for a bounce until at least another 25 points lower.

Keene Little : 6/24/2008 10:02:05 AM

It looks like we'll see at least a retest of the overnight lows in the futures. Ideally we'll see SPX head down to and find support in the 1300-1301 area. I think we'll see a decent bounce back up from there.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 10:02:02 AM

TRIN 0.83 as I type, still challenging that potential resistance on 15-minute closes now at 0.85. It's not over it yet, but neither is it backing down much.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 10:00:52 AM

Those who want a steadying in the OEX need to see sustained (not just one) 15-minute closes above the descending 15-minute 9-ema, now at 596.38. That's just a first tentative sign of any change in tenor and not a guarantee that the worst is over, but it's a must-see before there's any sign of steadying at all. For the SPX, that moving average is currently 1315.40 but curving over strongly and still descending.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 9:55:50 AM

BIX has now hit a lower low than yesterday's.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 9:55:06 AM

A/D line now -1701, testing potential support. TRIN 0.76, having bounced from the support I mentioned earlier up to test potential resistance now at 0.83. The TRIN during this 15-minute period has hit a high of 0.85 but is currently pulling back from that high. Equity bears want the A/D line break through support and the TRIN to break through resistance on 15-minute closes, while equity bulls want the opposite.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 9:51:59 AM

Yikes. TED spread is 0.97.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 9:49:54 AM

The A/D line has dropped all the way toward next potential support, not even slowed by the mid-channel potential support. That next support is at about -1725 with the A/D line currently -1640. RSI is now 13.62, so well within "overdone" levels. That means that bears need to be careful now of an A/D bounce, but it does not, absolutely does not, guarantee bulls that there's going to be a bounce. It's just a sign to start being watchful if you've got trades that depend on a dropping A/D line pressuring equities.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 9:48:07 AM

Potential OEX support on 15-minute closes now at 593.71. For the SPX, it's 1309.57.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 9:46:01 AM

BIX did not print a lower (than yesterday's) low this morning. It's so far maintaining potential support on 15-minute closes at 179.25, but it's also so far finding resistance that exists on 15-minute closes at about 180.45. No conclusion yet, except there's a slight glimmer of hope in that it has not dropped to a lower low. If there's hope among the financials, there's hope with the OEX, SPX and Dow that they'll steady, but there's nothing conclusive here yet. BIX is currently 179.34.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 9:43:00 AM

TRIN is 0.56. Not exactly bearish, folks. It is, however, testing potential Keltner support at 0.61 on 15-minute closes. This is the same level it tested early Tuesday, 6/17, when I warned that it could bounce from that level. Because the TRIN moves in opposition to the equities, typically at least, equity bulls don't want to see a strong bounce, and instead would like to see TRIN finding resistance at that 0.61 on 15-minute closes, or, if not there, at the descending 15-minute 9-ema, now at 0.85 but still dropping.

Conclusion? Bears, this is not currently supporting your trades, but bulls, it's at extreme low levels for short-term movements and you need to be careful of strong bounce potential. I think some bounce is almost a guarantee, but you don't want to see TRIN maintain values above 0.85.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 9:38:51 AM

Here's where the OEX is so far this morning with respect to the Keltner target and support that was tested earlier, as well as a descending supporting trendline that began forming 6/18: Link

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 9:36:15 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: Surprisingly, the A/D line opened in the upper or more bullish half of the 15-minute Keltner channels this morning. Of course, it's diving right to the central basis line and the potential support gathered there. That support is gathered from -1000 up to -690. The A/D line is currently -981, dropping strongly through that band. However, remember the possibility of a bounce before the conclusion of the first 15-minute period, showing that this support has held. So, bears should be aware now that there's the possibility that the A/D line drop could steady soon, perhaps in the -1200 zone if not sooner and bounce before the conclusion of this 15-minute period, showing that this support is holding.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 9:33:42 AM

A potential downside target and support on 15-minute closes for the SPX is now 1310.18-1311.62, according to the 15-minute chart. That will be driven slightly lower by any strong drop this morning.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 9:32:32 AM

Former Fed head Alan Greenspan is in South Africa speaking at a conference and not exactly talking up the markets, according to Bloomberg. He's talking the "cusp of recession" talk again.

Linda Piazza : 6/24/2008 9:27:36 AM

Futures have been driven much lower than fair values overnight, although, as Keene noted, they've bounced off their overnight lows. It's time to start looking at the distance from the March lows for the OEX, with that March low at 583.64 and with a current potential downside target on the OEX's weekly chart at 582.74. That potential downside target is also potentially strong support on a weekly close.

So, we must first factor in vulnerability to a retest of the March lows, something I've always thought would have to happen eventually. However, I had thought there was a chance that the indices would chop out a consolidation zone for the summer and not retest until late in the summer or next fall. We're already close enough, especially if there's any kind of downdraft this morning, as seems likely, that it's a near retest. Any lower values that follow through on futures' weakness will constitute a nearer one.

That's the background now: possible vulnerability to a retest of the March low sooner rather than later. What do shorter-term charts show? The daily chart shows potential support just below 596, but that could be broken first thing this morning. Just remember that it's potential support on a daily close so a dip that results in a bounce and close above it still means that it's held on a daily close. Some potential support on daily closes gathers from 588.75-593.50, composed of daily lows, opens and closes during that March testing period. And then there's the March intraday low of 583.64.

The fifteen-minute chart shows a potential target and potential support on 15-minute closes at 595.52 and 593.28. The thirty-minute version, at 593.97.

Combining all this, then, with the distance the S&P e-mini's have traveled below their fair values and extrapolating where the OEX might go, it's possible that 593.28-594 potential support zone might get tested right away this morning, and likely that the Keltner targets and support will also be driven lower than that by any first sharp movement down, if it occurs. So, I think we're likely looking at the first potential support kicking in closer to 592.50-593, which will also bring the OEX back within the potential support of some of the opens, closes and lows during that March testing period. Those who are hoping for markets to steady will hope to see it steady in that 588.75-593.50 zone and then bound up from there, avoiding a trip all the way down to the March low. Testing the March low doesn't mean that the OEX has to drop all the way there.

Neither does it mean that it has to stop there, unfortunately. We should have some de rigueuer dip-buying start somewhere either in the 592-593.50 zone or in the 583.64-588.75 zone, but from this pre-market view, there's no assurance that it will hold. Thinking of my mother-in-law and so many of my peers approaching retirement and dependent on their investments for their retirement years, I hope it does. Other than my trading accounts, my own funds are not yet reinvested after I went to cash last fall before the big rollover because I haven't been convinced that the March lows were "the" lows, but for the good of so many people, I hope they are.

And there is hope. There's no assurance that markets, jittery as they are, will plunge too far. Just don't be plowing a whole lot of money into a too-early belief that the bottom has been put in with an early dip this morning without lots of evidence that you're right. If you're in long positions, you definitely want to be managing your losses according to your trade- and account-management rules. If you're in bearish positions, you also want that careful following of rules to avoid being trapped in some kind of short-covering rally, if one should get started.

I'll be watching the TED spread closely this morning. Yesterday, it closed at 0.94 and (with my delayed quote) it's currently 0.96. As I've been saying for a couple of weeks, I don't like it moving too close to 1.00 after having tested support again a couple of weeks ago and starting to bounce. Over the last two weeks, it's moved up from a low of 0.77 during that period to the current 0.96. For reference, pre credit jitters, its typical range was 0.10-0.50. The TED spread measures default risk and a rising TED spread will likely pressure markets, or, rather, reflect the pressure that markets are experiencing from rising default risk.

Keene Little : 6/24/2008 9:19:55 AM

Equity futures took a tumble in overnight trading with the DOW futures (YM) dropping more than 120 points from high to low, making a low just after 5:30 AM. They've been climbing since then and YM has retraced almost 50% of the drop. Whether the early morning climb back up can be trusted is another matter. I suspect it will get reversed back down after the cash market opens. Assuming we'll get the next leg down as I depicted on last night's charts I'll be watching its form to determine where a tradeable bottom might form.

Jane Fox : 6/24/2008 9:01:38 AM

From a purely technical point of view, Crude's consolidation at all time highs has been hard on us crude traders. Volatility is mother's milk to traders and for the last 2 weeks the volatility has just not been there. Of course the $18 rise on June 5th and 6th used a lot of daily volatility so there was not much left over. Link

Jane Fox : 6/24/2008 8:56:00 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem el-Badri said Tuesday other members of the cartel don't want to lift their oil output, Dow Jones Newswires reported on Tuesday. The comments came after Saudi Arabia said over the weekend it would boost production by 200,000 barrels a day. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was meeting with members of the European Union amid doubts that oil prices would ease in the near future.

Jane Fox : 6/24/2008 8:54:54 AM

Here's a look at the overnight markets and how they are trading in relation to their previous day ranges. As you can see all markets are below their respective previous day lows. Link

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