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Keene Little : 7/6/2008 10:10:00 PM

Monday's pivot tables: Link and Link

At the end of the day Thursday, with so much of the morning bounce being given back into the end of the shortened day, I thought we might see another low (or test of the low) before heading higher. Heading higher is of course the big question. The NDX 60-min chart shows a continuation lower on Monday before finding potential support around 1795 (April 16th gap fill) or lower to a Fib projection near 1772: Link

In between those levels is the April low near 1776 and the uptrend line from October 2002 that's near 1786. The daily NDX chart shows how a little dip (relatively speaking) could be followed by a week-long rally that takes NDX back up to the top of its down-channel: Link . This is of course speculation but it would fit the wave pattern of the move so far.

At the end of the day Thursday I was thinking we might see SPX go sideways for about a week and thought we had started the first leg up in what could turn out to be a sideways triangle pattern. But with the futures down on Friday and staying down Sunday night (but still holding above Thursday's low) we might see a continuation lower on Monday (as depicted for NDX). But if Thursday's lows hold then prepare for potential chop and whipsaw consolidation this coming week. SPX 60-min chart: Link

A rally above 1273 that stays above would suggest a larger upward correction, as depicted in pink on the daily chart, which could see SPX heading up to the 1350 area by the end of the month: Link . Otherwise the current price pattern supports the idea that we'll see the market continue to stair-step lower into the end of the month (following the potential sideways consolidtion this week) before seeing a much bigger bounce.

OI Technical Staff : 7/6/2008 9:59:59 PM

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