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Keene Little : 7/13/2008 10:15:12 PM

Could oil be topping (again)? The run up to the upper trend line of a rising wedge with bearish divergence says the chances are good for more than just a pullback. But it needs to break its uptrend line and its July 8th low of 135.89 to confirm the break. Link

Keene Little : 7/13/2008 10:04:29 PM

Monday's pivot tables: Link and Link

With equity futures up a lot on Sunday night (YM +92, ES +13, NQ +19 and ER +6.50) it will be a bullish start to Monday if it holds. Friday's highs will be important so we'll see how the market handles them on Monday if we get a rally. The price pattern has me thinking we'll see lower either right away or maybe after another rally leg but I do not believe we're ready for a multi-week rally. I don't think we've seen the tradable bottom yet for that kind of rally.

There are lots of possibilities for what happens between here and a new low but I'm showing the two possibilities on the SPX 60-min chart that I think have the best chances--either immediately lower (or perhpas after a brief morning rally and then lower) or a choppy sideways/up bounce into the end of the week before heading lower (pink): Link

The daily chart shows a more bullish possibility for a run higher into the early part of August but it will take a rally above 1292 (with a heads up if it gets above 1278) to make it a likely possibility. In the meantime I think it will head lower to perhaps 1200 before another bounce. Link

I show a little bounce on NDX before heading lower as well: Link . It takes a rally above 1785 to tell me something more bullish is in progress (pink). The RUT's daily chart shows it's the closest to breaking its down-channel from June and a rally above 685 could be a good indication that the rest of the market will follow. Otherwise a break below 660 will likely mean another leg down has started. Link

OI Technical Staff : 7/13/2008 9:59:59 PM

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