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Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:51:28 PM

IWM and RUT option montages. OI as of Monday's close. Link and Link

"No way" can IWM come close to $71.00 "Max Pain" tabulation by Friday. Is there?

Even though sum of all call and put OI is $71 action at 660 Call in RUT today with AvgHLC of $10.35 (660 +10 = 670) and the 18,928 OI at 670 puts a hurdle. You've got to KNOW there were a lot of premium sellers today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:10:56 PM

On 06/24/08 the DJUSHB finished 291.18.

DJUSHB 240.20 +0.81% after trading a 52-week low intra-day today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:05:12 PM

Here's the last Aug'08 thru May'09 table I posted at OptionInvestor.com Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:01:59 PM

Well, how "bad" do you think CME housing futures got since last check?

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:58:58 PM

Intel (INTC) $20.71 +1.17% ... Earnings Press Release Link

Last tick extended was $20.95.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:52:37 PM

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $67.70 +1.94% ... Earnings Press Release Link Tuesday morning.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:49:41 PM

US Bancorp (USB) $22.70 -2.70% ... Earnings Press Release Link Tuesday morning.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:47:55 PM

M&T Bank (MTB) $56.94 -3.19% ... Earnings Press Release from Monday Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:44:14 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:40:48 PM

QLGC $15.94 +1.85% Link ... maybe it and FFIV a little more the same.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:39:27 PM

CSCO $21.04 -1.22% Link ... another 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:38:05 PM

FFIV $31.46 -1.74% Link ... session low of $31.04 still above our put entry benchmark of $31.10.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:36:25 PM

NVDA $11.26 +1.07% ... another 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:35:50 PM

SBUX $13.58 -3.00% ... another 52-weeker today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:33:48 PM

OK ... NASDAQ's 5-day NH/NL above its 10-day SMA for a 4th session.

From 6/18, 6/19, 6/20 and 6/23 it did the same, but only 4 days.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:31:36 PM

RUT.X's NH/NL Tuesday was 14:265. Daily ratio 5.0%; 5-day 6.2% and 10-day making new trough low of 5.4%.

Small caps looks like they wanted to try and lead a rebound higher late-afternoon, the the vault hinges among the banks continue to look rusty.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:27:57 PM

There's some volume ... 7.37 billion at the big board.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:24:13 PM

CRB Index (CRY) ... while it looks like the "bottom fell out" on CRB intra-day, with days decline taking place in 40-minutes, it also looks very "op-ex" as it comes right back into round-number 450.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:15:57 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link ... Down, up, then down again with a 300-point swing in the Dow and a 34-point twist for the SPX.

Sellers were few and offer light in the "junk bond" PHF.

Keene Little : 7/15/2008 10:07:45 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

I heard from several traders today telling me it was a very difficult day to trade and that it was hard staying on the right side of the market. So if you struggled, you're not alone. Take a look at the NYSE adv-decl volume chart for Tuesday and look at all that jumping up and down for most of the day (before going deeply negative into the end of the day): Link . That's what you were dealing with if you were trading on Tuesday.

My best guess on what's playing out in this market is that we still need another low to the leg down from June. It should be another 3-wave decline from Tuesday's high, the same as the leg down from last Wednesday to Friday morning and then Friday afternoon to Tuesday morning. If it takes the same amount of time it should finish Thursday morning and potentially around SPX 1180-1190, shown in dark red on the 60-min and daily charts. A rally above Tuesday's high would say we've got something at least short-term bullish in play (pink). Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 7/15/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Tab Gilles : 7/15/2008 4:25:35 PM

$NYLOW- NYSE New Lows/ $SPX/ $VIX I'd posted a weekly chart earlier today...here is a daily using a 10-ema. The VIX came extremely close to hitting 31 (30.81)today. Link

$NALOW Nasdaq New Lows/ $NDX/ $VXN Link

Tab Gilles : 7/15/2008 4:18:26 PM

Intel (INTC) Beats on revs and eps $21.50 +1 in AHT

Tab Gilles : 7/15/2008 4:09:48 PM

JP Morgan/Chase (JPM) $31.02 -$0.67 (2.11%) As Linda mentioned earlier today many banks are set to report this week. Investors/traders understandably will remain cautious until they report. JPM reports before the open this Thursday the 17th.

Tab Gilles : 7/15/2008 4:04:57 PM

DJIA closes under 11,000 as uncertainty continues to rule the markets.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 4:03:46 PM

I have to leave for an appointment ... will update later this evening.

What a day!

Keene Little : 7/15/2008 4:02:51 PM

The techs sure look a lot more bullish than the blue chips--NDX holding in the green even with the DOW down 100.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 4:01:35 PM

VIX.X 28.28 -0.70% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 4:01:21 PM

BAC $18.48 -8.28% ...

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 4:01:21 PM

Today's spring off support for the OEX isn't quite as impressive, the candlestick again not as strong a predictor of further gains, barring a big advance in the last few minutes.

Do, however, be aware of the many measures afoot in the U.S., the important economic news and the earnings from financials that are due to begin and try to be prepared for anything. That's what you could get. Don't carry too much risk home with you.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 4:00:58 PM

Swing trade put alert! ... for an additional Bank of America BAC Aug. $17.50 Put (BAC-TS) at the offer of $1.69

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:59:12 PM

Ssssquint ...

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 3:58:40 PM

I hate to look at charts and see competing bullish and bearish formations. The formations in which the OEX and SPX are pulling back into a right shoulder for the bullish inverse or reverse formation is now looking like a regular potential H&S (forming since about 12:30) and with a right shoulder still to be formed. These are small formations on intraday charts and so aren't particularly predictive or trustworthy, but they do show that no one has really won the day yet.

Keene Little : 7/15/2008 3:58:09 PM

If this afternoon's pullback leads to another rally leg tomorrow morning that gets above this afternoon's high that would be a good sign that we're into at least the multi-day bounce into next week. So today's high becomes a key level in that respect. Stay short below that level for now.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:56:13 PM

SPY $121.90 -0.66% ... opened at $121.77. Possible "doji" day.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:54:59 PM

VIX.X 27.93 -1.61% ... session low juuuuust a fraction below QRTRLY R1. Coming back for a test of MNTHLY R2 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:49:36 PM

BTK.X 781.36 +2.85% ... see if they can hold gains, or buyers simply pull the bid.

Keene Little : 7/15/2008 3:49:11 PM

There's no doubt about the fact that today's daily candle on SPX looks very bullish (hammer at support at the bottom of it's down-channel. An up day tomorrow would confirm it. But I suspect we'll see a couple of signals for a bottom that turn out not to be so. I still like the probabilities for a new low tomorrow, perhaps the final low by Thursday morning (helped by hedging to protect options positions heading into expiration).

The descending wedge pattern idea is getting a little "stretched" and has turned into a parallel down-channel so the risk is that we've entered another acclerated phase of the decline and it has much further to drop. But so far it continues to fit where it needs only one more leg down to finish the decline to set up the multi-day bounce into next week. The SPX 60-min chart shows a move down to the 1180 area (will be able to get a better downside target if and when the next leg down is underway). Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:47:56 PM

OIH -3.34% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:47:44 PM

XNG.X -3.65%

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:47:31 PM

OIX -3.90%

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 3:47:43 PM

The OEX is now back once again to test the former resistance descending trendline off Friday's afternoon high. That trendline is now at about 557.55, if I'm sizing it up correctly. The OEX also has potential (but light) support on 15-minute closes at 557.50. This is not what those hoping for further signs of stabilization wanted to see, of course, but don't rule anything out for the last few minutes of trading. If bears can't drive prices down further, some may begin to cover ahead of the developments that may come overnight.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:47:21 PM

BKX.X -2.19% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:47:12 PM

BIX.X -4.21%

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:46:53 PM

Provides the drag ... RUT.X 663.80 -0.10% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:46:29 PM

SPX 1,221.57 -0.54% ... back to QRTRLY S1 from above.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:44:28 PM

"Rolled" from Aug $20 strike to $17.50 on "lower" VIX.X

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:43:41 PM

BAC $18.86 -6.40% ... slips back under WKLY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:42:36 PM

I would have to agree with "Fleck" ... can't manipulate these big financial lower.

Heck, the time to look for "rumor" from bears is when the trade is moving against the bear and they're trying to talk it back lower to limit losses.

Banks shorts haven't been having that type of problem in recent days, week, months, year.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 3:41:53 PM

Too much lower and the OEX risks violating that consolidation zone that it's been building this afternoon. I wouldn't consider it violated yet, but I'm certainly watching and aware that it's a possibility. So is another zoom up toward 564.40-565.80. Either way, the OEX's intraday charts wouldn't be telling us much yet, unfortunately, because the OEX would just be chopping around within a potential inverse H&S ahead of decisions to be made in Washington, INTC's and others reports, inflation-related numbers for us and the Eurozone tomorrow morning and the financials that begin to report tomorrow morning.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:36:44 PM

Ms. Yellen: Preventing foreclosures "key" Fed priority

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:35:44 PM

Ms. Yellen: May need "a broader range of interventions"

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:35:03 PM

Ms. Yellen: ... Housing foreclosures an "urgent problem"

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:34:15 PM

Fed's Yellen making comments ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:31:52 PM

BAC $19.15 -4.96% ... back for a test of WKLY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:31:06 PM

BIX.X 132.66 -2.00% ... still below its WKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:30:43 PM

OIX.X 858.75 -3.12% ... still sitting on WKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:30:00 PM

BIX.X 133.30 -1.53% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:28:53 PM

SPY $122.66 -0.05% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:28:31 PM

RUT.X 670.06 +0.83% ... back at WKLY P

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 3:27:33 PM

The OEX tried but did not break out of its choppy zone from this afternoon. It could not maintain values high enough. Bears may give it a try now and see if support can be broken. That's now at about 561 on 30-minute closes. OEX at 561.98 as I type. Bulls would like to see this support hold and for the OEX to spring higher again and this time, maintain those highs.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:26:38 PM

Brazil's real closes at 9-year high of BRL1.587/Dlr

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:26:05 PM

Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) $61.91 -0.72% ... as I type ... company saying June overall gas, oil production 2.421M BOE/day

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 3:20:15 PM

I've corrected my 3:19:15 post. I had referenced the SPX when I meant OEX and had put the wrong value for the OEX's then-current level, too.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:19:30 PM

Not certain of the Countrywide news regarding primary dealer. BAC acquired Countrywide.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:18:32 PM

VIX.X 27.08 -4.91% ...

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 3:19:15 PM

The OEX's 30-minute 9-ema is now 561.28, and those hoping the worst is over (for today at least) want to see that hold as support on 30-minute closes. OEX at 563.07.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:18:14 PM

Swing trade put alert! ... for one (1) of the Bank of America BAC Aug. $17.50 Puts (BAC-TS) at the offer of $1.40.

BAC $19.27 -4.36% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:17:09 PM

I "smell," or still see a rat.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:12:54 PM

10-year finished down 3.6 bp at 3.844%

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:12:14 PM

PHF $7.70 -0.64% ... SEC yield 11.66%. Recent NAV on 07/10 was $8.09.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:10:30 PM

RUT.X 672.56 +1.21% ... clears WKLY Pivot ... looking back over its shoulder ... C'mon ... let's go!

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:09:45 PM

QQQQ $44.82 +1.33% ... takes a look at WKLY Pivot.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 3:06:56 PM

Here's the OEX's test of potential Keltner resistance on 30-minute closes. In addition to testing 30-minute potential resistance and the earlier swing high, the OEX is also testing a trendline along which it had climbed from this morning's low (5-minute chart) but then broke beneath about 2:00 pm this afternoon. Bulls need to see is sustain these levels to avoid that kiss-goodbye look that they don't want to see right now.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:05:41 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,550:1,379

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:05:25 PM

NYSE a/d 1,179:1,956

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:04:50 PM

BKX.X +1.69% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:04:38 PM

BAC $19.56 -2.92% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:03:28 PM

SPY $123.01 +0.23% ... session low has been $120.03.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:02:45 PM

SPX 1,2230 +0.13% ... really needs the financials ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:02:04 PM

RUT.X 671.95 +1.12% ... not near-as much oil/energy as INDU/SPX

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 3:00:52 PM

QQQQ $44.68 +1.01% ... PTEN $33.02 -2.59% ...

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 2:59:41 PM

The OEX needs to produce 30-minute closes above 564.42 and of course sustain values above its 1:00 pm high of 564.32, along the way, to make bulls feel a little better. Even then, though, don't get too complacent. The OEX would hit new potentially important resistance about every 2 points after that.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:57:48 PM

XOM -1.96%, CVX -2.15%, COP -3.39%, SLB -3.33%, OXY -3.86%, DVN -3.53%

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:56:02 PM

DJ- Nymex crude's dollar drop steepest since Jan 1991.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 2:55:15 PM

The bond market is about to close. The tenor sometimes changes at that time. The tenor leading up into this is a period of a couple of hours of consolidation, so we could see an attempt to break out one or even both directions. That's not a given, but take a deep breath and be prepared. Remember that you can't influence what the market does: all you can control is what you do about it.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:53:40 PM

GLD $96.15 +0.25% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:53:07 PM

Chile Govt. cuts 2008 GDP growth outlook to 4.2% from 5.3%

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:52:16 PM

DJ- Nymex crude poised for 2nd-largest dollar drop

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:50:54 PM

RUT.X 669.35 +0.72% ... can it "close the deal" back above WKLY Pivot?

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:45:29 PM

Good gravy ... seeing Robert profiled the selling of an SSO Aug $52 Put via email at 01:17 PM EDt.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:42:42 PM

OK, on 3/18 after a 3/17 VIX.X traded ABOVE, then back below its MONTHLY R2, VIX.X broke boldy back below a correlative QRTLY R1/MONTHLY R1.

Keene Little : 7/15/2008 2:42:41 PM

If the market ends up moving more sideways than down or up over the next few days it will be possible we'll see the multi-day "rally" turn into a bearish consolidation instead. The daily chart shows how it might look (dark red) before heading for a new low (target 1170 by the beginning of August). I think the potential is still good for a new low tomorrow before starting the multi-day consolidation/rally. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 2:41:28 PM

The OEX is still chopping around in that zone I'd mentioned earlier, although I should have pinned the bottom of that zone a bit lower than 560.

Some of you will have noticed why I decided that the OEX might chop around for a while in that zone when I made that 1:29 post noting that we might see some choping around. The 15-minute and 30-minute charts sport a potential inverse or reverse head-and-shoulders, but the OEX was lacking a right shoulder. That wasn't my only reason, though, because I don't put much faith in such formations these days. Bullish formations have tended to fall apart lately, and these H&S formations just don't seem great predictors lately, whether they're of the bullish or bearish variety. The Keltner setup on the 30-minute chart was also showing me the possibility of such chop, in this case between potentially strong support on 30-minute closes at 560.51 and potentially strong resistance on 30-minute closes at about 564.65. The OEX is still stuck between the two, with 30-minute RSI now at a rather neutral 56.75, chopping back and forth across 50. In other words, we have consolidation. While in normal circumstances, consolidation at the top of a climb, with a potentially bullish formation, would give a little more weight to the possibility of an upside break, these are not normal circumstances. You must also factor in the possibility that prices could crater, perhaps to 557.20-558.17 . . . or perhaps lower.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:36:27 PM

Except for BIX.X , no equity-based indicec tracked in this WEEK's WKLY Pivot matrix have seen trade at S2.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:34:40 PM

Historical WKLY for 03/10; 03/17 and 3/24 WKLY Pivot matrix Link

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 2:34:09 PM

What if the OEX were to end the day right where it is right now, at 561.46? That would present a candle that's a typical reversal signal. Moreover, it's the very type of reversal signal often seen in interim market bottoms, such as those in January (over two days) and March of this year, as well as March and August of last year. Often prices just spring up the next day.

Not always, though: Link For the sake of many subscribers with positions that are delivering a lot of hurt, I hope we get one of those immediate springs and there's a possibility that could occur, but we haven't yet seen the closing values and we don't know for sure whether that '05 pattern would be followed or whether the subsequent ones would be. For now, whether bullish or bearish, you must assess your risk and decide how much you want to take home overnight. We could be putting in an interim-term bottom or we could just be beginning the choppy '05 type process until a bottom is chopped out.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:31:34 PM

VIX.X ... see it?

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:30:53 PM

I'll be darned ... 03/17/08 was an Op-Ex too.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:30:10 PM

There on their way ... WKLY Pivot matrix back in mid-to-late March.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:28:20 PM

I think Dr. Bernanke said something again today about dollar reflection of U.S. economy.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:27:31 PM

DXY 71.71 -0.27% ... has traded 71.40 today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:27:08 PM


Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:26:52 PM

OIX X 859.11 -3.08% ... was 805.88 at 3/17/08 close.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:26:12 PM

USO $112.41 -4.34% ... those were the days of "cheap oil" weren't they?

Today's low $110.13.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:24:52 PM

SLV $187.69 -0.87% ... day's high has been $191.61.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:24:05 PM

GLD $96.36 ... day's high has been $97.50.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:23:21 PM

13-week down 5.0 bp at 1.375% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:22:49 PM

30-year $TYX.X ... now up 0.7 bp at 4.476% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:22:23 PM

Did the 30-year YIELD ($TYX) reverse?

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 2:22:32 PM

Things could get hairy this afternoon, so I wanted to cover the what-could-happen-overnight portion a bit early today. Tonight, Japan's Tertiary Industry INdex will be released. I don't know whether the Bank of Japan will have already had that number when they made last night's decision to keep interest rates (call rates) steady at 0.50% or not, but it will the first glimpse investors have of that number. It will also be their first chance to react to the testimony going on in the U.S. right now. Last night, financials in Japan were clobbered as a result of their exposure to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Tomorrow morning, several European countries see CPI numbers, and the Eurozone's CPI will also be released. That Eurozone number comes out at 5:00 am and could definitely be market moving. Of course, we get our own CPI tomorrow morning, too, and industrial production, at 8:30 and 9:15, respectively. Tomorrow is another testimony day, too, and tomorrow afternoon, FOMC minutes are released.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:21:35 PM

03/17/08 Wrap Link (what was I thinking, observations?)

Closing internals Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:19:51 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:16:57 PM

NASDAQ's 542 new lows match to the security the number of new lows found on 3/17/08

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 2:14:33 PM

Bloomberg's online article includes brokerages in the action the SEC is taking today, limiting the ability to short sale these stocks.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 2:11:17 PM

On Bloomberg, Cox was just talking about short-sale rules, Jeff, saying they will be in effect for 30 days, characterizing them as emergency rules, and saying they will impact primary dealers only. Are you hearing the same on CNBC? I didn't catch it all, so I'm not sure whether it applied only to Fannie and Freddie.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:08:05 PM

Nope ... need a residential mortgage loan security.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 2:07:28 PM

The OEX's 15-minute 9-ema is now flattening, and that allows for the possibility that the OEX might retreat all the way to the other side of its smallest Keltner channel. That's at 557.91 currently. OEX bulls would prefer that not happen, as any retreat threatens to see the kind of falling-apart action we've seen lately, but it begins to be a possibility, at least. OEX 15-minute 9-ema is currently about 560.45, and the OEX is 560.37 as I type, just diving below it as I finished this post. Bulls would like a bounce back above that moving average by the close of this 15-minute period.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:04:50 PM

PHF $7.68 -0.90% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:04:31 PM

HYG $91.06 -1.48% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:04:16 PM

LQD $100.60 +0.09% ... benchmark news.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:03:49 PM

FDIC approves final covered-bond rules.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 2:02:13 PM

BAC $19.55 -2.97% ... BAC-TD $2.43 x $2.45.

VIX.X 27.52 -3.37% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 1:57:30 PM

IBM $123.00 +1.20% ... #1 weight in INDU. 8.95% of total and Monday's close.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 1:56:42 PM

INTC $20.75 +1.36% ... #16 weighting in SPX at Monday's close. 1.09% of total.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 1:56:34 PM

INTC $20.71 +1.17% ... #26 weighting in INDU. 1.51% of total.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 1:52:30 PM

I know I'm the one who said that we could see the OEX chop around for a while (1:29:41 post) but I'm already tired of the chopping around. However, the chart setup is still the same, with the OEX potentially chopping around, mostly between 560-564.50, for a while. That's the potential but it's not a given, and we've typically seen such periods end lately with prices just giving way. Bulls of course do not want that to happen. OEX at 561.82 as I type. If the OEX continues to rise, watch for potential resistance on 15-minute close at 564.60 and then, stronger, at 566.33.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 1:51:13 PM

Euro CurrencyShares (FXE) 159.47 +0.05% ...

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 1:48:00 PM

Whatever trade you've got, you need to be aware that INTC reports after the close. INTC is a component stock of many indices, of course.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 1:46:14 PM

volume "anemic" at 3.9 million shares. Considering 930K volume spike at 10:15-10:20 AM

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 1:45:12 PM

USO $112.11 -4.57% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 1:44:36 PM

Will get CME regional housing futures benchmark at tonight's close.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 1:44:05 PM

DJUSHB 241.24 +1.25% ... gets green.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 1:41:38 PM

The VIX rises up to retest violated support at about 27.80 on 30-minute closes. The VXO's former support and new potential resistance is 29.77 with further potential resistance at 30.33. The VXO is 29.43 as I type. So far, the former support is holding as resistance, but this is early in the test.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 1:39:54 PM

Sohu.com (SOHU) $64.93 -5.19% ... did backfill 4/25 to 4/28 gap higher. Session low has been $61.68.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 1:38:02 PM

IUX.X 239.99 -1.12% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 1:37:47 PM

BIX.X 134.66 -0.53% ... slips back red.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 1:35:36 PM

The OEX is now slipping just below the rising trendline off the day's low (different trendline than mentioned earlier), with that now at about 560.15. It's rising up immediately to retest it as well as retest the other trendline, the one off Friday's high, so we've got a test going on and really can't make any judgments except that we're watching a test as a normal testing or stop-running time of day approaches.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 1:33:04 PM

Wow. TED spread now 1.35. That's still way too high, but that's an 0.16 drop off the high of the day. The resistance that has been turning the TED spread back since last August is now at about 1.70, however, so I don't know whether this pullback is just a pullback to gather strength for another assault on that or a real sign that Bernanke/Paulson testimony is calming the market's fear of defaults.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 1:29:41 PM

The OEX's 9-ema now roughly converges with the descending trendline off Friday's high, with both at about 560.20. While it's natural for the OEX to come back and retest this trendline after breaking above it, OEX bulls want that support to hold on 15-minute closes and then for the OEX to next bounce above yesterday afternoon's last swing high (not high of the day) of 565.94. The chart setup suggests that we could see some chopping around, however, between mostly about 560 (OEX slightly below that as I type) and 564.50 before we know next direction . . . unless this decline gets too steep. Recognize the danger in this market environment of prices just giving way. OEX at 559.72 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 1:25:39 PM

Notable CBOE uptickvol on the IWM's Nov $59 put.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 1:22:25 PM

IWM's July $66 Call (DIW-GN) is CBOE's most active at 1,977 contract. I'm showing 43,190 all exhcanges. Low/High $0.48/$1.60.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 1:20:46 PM

IWM $66.75 +0.89% ... slips back under WKLY Pivot.

As of last night's close, IWM's July "Max Pain" theory tabulation was $71.00.

Keene Little : 7/15/2008 1:19:25 PM

The bounce pattern has me thinking it has either finished or has one more minor high to finish it (SPX 1232.72 target is still a good one). We'll probably see renewed selling this afternoon. The flip side is a very strong afternoon rally if it can get above SPX 1238.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 1:18:35 PM

The OEX has potential support on 15-minute closes at 560.51-561.59. Bulls would like to see the highest of those hold as support.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 1:18:21 PM

I'm uncertain as to what the "proposal" is.

I (Jeff Bailey) hope it is ONLY the up-tick rule implemented again. Must be able to hedge risk if needed.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 1:15:38 PM

FNM $8.31 -14.59% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 1:15:20 PM

FRE $6.09 -14.34% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 1:14:26 PM

News alert! ... SEC proposes limits on shorting Fannie, Freddie shares ... MarketWatch Story Link

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 1:12:39 PM

The major indices are green now, if only by a little. The OEX has broken convincingly above the potential resistance that was then at about 561.45, but now it needs to hold that Keltner line, now at 561.57, on 15-minute closes to prove that the breakout above that resistance is viable. It will then set a potential upside target near 566.61 and I'd know ahead of time what I intended to do with my bullish positions if that level was hit since volatility could hit again at that level. The OEX has not closed a 15-minute period above that particularly Keltner line since 7/09.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 1:10:06 PM

RUT.X ... 4-box Link ... should RUT.X trade 684 today, then since already in column of "X" at last night's close, "O's" to 548 would not be charted. As if today's decline never took place.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 1:06:53 PM

BKX.X +3.25%

XBD.X +2.39%

BIX.X +1.94%

IUX.X +0.14%

XLF +2.31%

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 1:05:44 PM

USO $111.04 -5.48% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 1:04:32 PM

RUT.X alert! 670.39 +0.89% ... comes to WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 12:58:17 PM

BAC $19.69 -2.28% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 12:58:02 PM

NY Fed: Countrywide no longer primary dealer, effective Tuesday.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 12:54:32 PM

Most Actives ... WB $9.43 -4.16%, UYG $15.80 +0.95%, MSFT $26.19 +4.13%, INTC $20.63 +0.78%, SPY $122.46 -0.21%, XLF $17.88 +0.79%, ORCL $20.26 -0.92%, MER $25.76 -0.46%, CSCO $21.13 -0.79%, FITB $10.94 -1.97%

Keene Little : 7/15/2008 12:51:42 PM

SPX just hit the downtrend line from Friday afternoon and pulled back a little. If this line holds today then the smaller wedge pattern is still my preferred choice of patterns playing out and could finish quickly by tomorrow morning with one more drop to a new low (which should be accompanied by bullish divergences).

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 12:51:02 PM

The OEX closed that last 15-minute period only slightly above the potential resistance (trendline and Keltner) at 561.44, so it was an iffy breach of that resistance. I would suggest that you give it a little credence for closing slightly above that level but consider the OEX as still testing more than anything. I would expect bears to attempt to push it back now, and their success or failure at doing so will help determine the next direction. If they can't push it back, some may elect to cover shorts and sit back on some of those fat profits they've collected (and earned, by the way). If there's a pullback beneath that trendline, bulls would like to see 559.19 hold as support on 15-minute closes. Don't count on anything, though. I'm watching the VXO attempt a bounce from that potential support level I mentioned earlier.

Keene Little : 7/15/2008 12:49:36 PM

It's possible we're in a larger descending wedge than the one I've been showing, one that started from the high on Wednesday. It was a 3-wave move down from Wednesday to Friday morning's low and that supports the larger descending wedge idea (although it's more like a small parallel down-channel). The move down from Friday afternoon to this morning's low was another 3-wave move and that suggests we haven't seen the bottom yet.

In the case of a larger ending pattern, today's bounce could be the 4th wave of it and we'll have one more leg down to finish it (so really no different than the smaller wedge, just bigger moves inside the wedge), as shown in dark red. If true then two equal legs up from this morning's low would be at 1232.72 and should be the extent of the bounce. Any higher than 1238 would be a break of the top of the larger pattern (shown in purple). Link

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 12:44:16 PM

TED spread now 1.38, on a delayed read.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 12:43:18 PM

The VXO approaches potential support in the 29.30-29.80 zone. It's at 30.16 as I type, having dipped to 30.00 a few minutes ago. Equity bulls want to see it give way but should be prepared for a potential bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 12:41:55 PM

10-year ($TNX.X) down 4.6 bp at 3.834% ... sits on trying to round out 150-day SMA. WKLY S1 at 3.814%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 12:40:30 PM

Mexico's 10-year bond yield rises 1.01 pct point to 9.26% ...

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 12:39:11 PM

The OEX is pushing up to test potentially strong resistance on 15-minute closes at about 561.44. OEX bulls would like to see the OEX maintain 15-minute close above that 561.44 level as only a first step in any improvement in tenor and not as proof that the OEX won't drop back again. So far, so good, but I've said that a lot the last three weeks.

If the OEX should continue to climb, there's potentially strong resistance again at 565.90-566.80 and it wouldn't be surprising to see the OEX knocked back from a test of that resistance, so make your plans for how you'll treat a test of that level, if it comes. OEX at 561.35 as I type.

Keene Little : 7/15/2008 12:36:11 PM

For SPX the downtrend line from Friday afternoon (what I've been calling the top of the potential descending wedge pattern) is currently near 1228. If it can rally above that it would be a strong statement that we're into the larger upward correction (multi-day rally into next week) before potentially rolling back over to a lower low (1160-1170) by the end of the month.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 12:34:02 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 7/15/2008 12:32:14 PM

Silver (YI, September) has the same pattern as gold and today touched the top of its up-channel and hit the 62% retracement of the March-May decline at 19.33: Link

Tab Gilles : 7/15/2008 12:32:51 PM

Celgene (CELG)$71.30 Ready to roll over?Link

Keene Little : 7/15/2008 12:26:54 PM

It'll be interesting to see how gold finishes today. August YG (gold emini) smacked the top of its parallel up-channel for price action since the June low and at the same time hit its weekly R1 and monthly R2. These are shown on my daily YG chart: Link

Notice too the bearish shooting star candlestick so far today. A down day tomorrow would confirm the reversal pattern and I'll once again be looking for a bounce after that for a short play setup.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 12:26:37 PM

FXY Live! 95.14 +1.12% ... probes WKLY R2 from above.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 12:26:08 PM

DXY 71.65 -0.36% (30-min delayed) ... has reclaimed WKLY S1/MNTHLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 12:22:55 PM

RUT.X +0.20% ... gets green.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 12:22:44 PM

OEX bulls need to see the OEX break above and sustain values above about 561.45 or they risk seeing it instead turn back down toward descending support. So far, the climb has acted as one might hope and the current stall has been a sideways one under expected strong resistance. The VXO and VIX have both continued to weaken. However, we know how these expected or normal stalls and pullbacks can suddenly give way in this market environment, so you really have to be prepared for anything. OEX at 560.24 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 12:22:32 PM

VIX.X 28.31 -0.59% ... still sits on MONTHLY R2 after morning trade at WRKLY R1/QRTRLY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 12:21:44 PM

SPX 1,222.28 -0.49% ... challenges QRTRLY S1 from below.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 12:14:28 PM

oh my! ... 1,094 NL at the big board.

Tab Gilles : 7/15/2008 12:12:34 PM

JP Morgan/Chase (JPM) $32.10 +$0.41 (1.26%)

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 12:11:31 PM

QQQQ 44.15 -0.18% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 12:11:09 PM

TRINQ plunges to 0.48

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 12:09:24 PM

Traders should be aware that the OEX and SPX are both now testing the bottom of the support range that had mostly held up over the last few days. It may now be resistance. While my optimistic self is encouraged by the strong gains off today's lows, coupled with the pronounced drop in the volatility indices, my experience with these markets tells me that we have to be particularly careful with our expectations at these levels. You want to see the OEX sustain 15-minute closes above about 561.60 before you even begin to believe that more gains are possible. Until then, try to think of this as just a test and not put too many expectations on what will happen next.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 12:08:44 PM

VIX.X alert! 28.27 -0.73% ... "key reversal"

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 12:07:18 PM

Swing trade call exit alert! ... for the one (1) YenCurrencyShares FXY Aug $93 Call (FXY-HO) at the bid of $2.65.

FXY $95.24 +1.23% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 12:06:20 PM

It's time to go "foxy-ho"

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 12:03:28 PM

Good gravy! ... TRIN 0.50

Jane Fox : 7/15/2008 12:04:11 PM

The TRIN is now at 0.51 and to new daily lows and look at this Reversal of Fortunes chart. Link It certainly looked like the TRIN was talking to us today, doesn't happen a lot but it does on some days. The trick is figuring out which days it is talking and which it is not and a clue to that dilemma is when the TRIN is totally out of whack with the other internals like it was earlier.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 12:02:05 PM

BKX 51.17 +2.31% ... sector winner now.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 12:01:43 PM

QQQQ $44.12 -0.24% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 12:01:21 PM

COMPX 2,215 +0.10% ... inches green.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 12:00:43 PM

BAC $19.67 -2.28% ... moves into morning's gap lower.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:59:57 AM

WB $9.96 +1.21% ... reclaims WKLY S1 after test of S2 ($7.89).

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 11:59:21 AM

Those hoping for gains want to see a new OEX swing high above the 560.52 high of about an hour ago, and then want to see this confirmed by sustained 15-minute closes above about 561.55. That could be a tall order, so watch out for possible volatility. Don't assume the OEX is out of the woods yet. The OEX is 558 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:58:00 AM

BKX.X 50.27 +0.51% ... inches green.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:57:32 AM

VIX.X 28.94 +1.61% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:57:06 AM

Swing trade put exit alert! ... for the Bank of America BAC Aug $20 Put (BAC-TD) at the bid of $2.80.

BAC $18.99 -5.45% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:55:39 AM

Wachovia (WB) $9.485 -3.86% ... company saying "well capitalized," fundamentally strong.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:54:52 AM

Bank of Portugal cutting its '08 economic growth outlook to 1.2%

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:53:32 AM

WKLY S2 right here at 49.41.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:52:58 AM

BKX.X 49.39 -1.23% ... session high has been 50.00.

See 11:23:23

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:48:38 AM

USO still hanging around my "rogue trader" benchmark of $112.00.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:47:58 AM

Biiiig volume spike in USO at/around that time.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 11:47:37 AM

The OEX is just above potential support on 15-minute closes at about 555.45. Those hoping for a more solid performance want to see it bounce to a new high and then confirm by 15-minute closes above 561.71, something that might be tough for the OEX. OEX at 555.17 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:47:20 AM

Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) $59.98 -3.81% ... At 10:17 AM EDT, seeing DJ headline that company saying Campos Basin operations 100% normalized.

Keene Little : 7/15/2008 11:47:17 AM

It remains possible we'll see more or less a choppy sideways/up correction to the top of the descending wedge pattern (which has changed shape slightly due to this morning's plunge) before we get another leg down tomorrow. Updated SPX 60-min chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 11:45:00 AM

So far, so good, and this time, the A/D line is at least behaving in accordance to what we see on the equity charts. (Yesterday, it wasn't even making a good attempt to bounce when equity markets did.) It climbed hard and is now pulling back, but is so far maintaining support where one would hope that it would on a first retest, at about -2050. If it pulls back further, those hoping for a steadying in the markets would like to see it steady at or above about -2300. It's -1947 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:42:26 AM

LEH $13.66 +10.16% ... "no man's land" with WKLY S1 $10.63, Pivot $17.21.

Daily Pivot right here $13.89.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:41:30 AM

WM $3.91 ... WKLY S2 right in here.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:41:10 AM

LEH $13.66 +10.16% ... WM $3.90 +20.74% ... buck financial weakness.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:39:52 AM

FNM $7.49 -22.91% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:39:38 AM

FRE $5.29 -25.45% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:38:55 AM

Moody's downgrades preferred stock ratings on Freddie and Fannie.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 11:38:01 AM

VIX is now 29.11, rising up to retest that 29.29-29.40-ish potential resistance zone. Next potential resistance on 30-minute closes is 29.53, but of course we know that the VIX will go where it will. These are just benchmarks to watch.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:37:29 AM

BAC's WKLY S2 right in here at $19.01.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:36:36 AM

VIX.X 29.07 +2.07% ... no back-test of MONTHLY R2 at this point.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 11:35:29 AM

Oops, and there it goes: TED spread back to 1.41.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:35:07 AM

BAC $19.00 -5.65% ...

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 11:34:50 AM

TED spread (delayed) down to 1.39 from its 1.51 high. There isn't a whole lot of cheer from a TED spread at this level, unless you compare it to its high of the day.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:34:42 AM

Paulson: No immediate plan to use GSE authority.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 11:32:48 AM

The OEX did manage to close that last 15-minute period above the 15-minute 9-ema, now at 556.58, but it may be coming back down to test it and, perhaps, the 554-555 level. Those hoping for the markets to steady would like for any declines to stop at one of those.

Please be aware that these are short-term charts only, and nothing, nada on those charts are going to stop some kind of steep decline if one starts again.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:29:18 AM

SPX Heavyweights ... same sort order as Monday's open. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:27:09 AM

MSFT $26.15 +3.97% ... NDX/QQQQ "heavyweight" too.

Tab Gilles : 7/15/2008 11:25:11 AM

Has the market bottomed?

Well known bear - David Tice - has sold the Prudent Fund.


Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:24:15 AM

TSO $16.62 +6.39% ... whips green.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 11:24:04 AM

The VIX has broken below the 29.20-29.40 level that was the locus of potential near-term support. It's also broken below the descending trendline off Friday's and yesterday's highs. That line is at about 29.10. Those who want the markets to steady want to see it find resistance there now, if it should attempt to rise. However, we know how quickly the VIX can change, so don't make any assumptions as yet. VIX at 28.83 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:23:23 AM

US Market Watch at this Link

Tab Gilles : 7/15/2008 11:22:58 AM

I agree Jeff...gotta love the action!

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:22:44 AM

US Market Watch at this

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:18:55 AM

Sector Winners ... ... oh heck.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:18:30 AM

NASDAQ a/d 965:1,799

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:18:16 AM

NYSE a/d 674:2,415

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:17:43 AM

SLV -1.62%

GLD +0.35%

USO -4.58%

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:17:15 AM

Incredible action ...

Tab Gilles : 7/15/2008 11:15:22 AM

OIL Down...GOLD is Up.

Keene Little : 7/15/2008 11:14:46 AM

Gold shed more than $20 in 30 minutes and dropped into negative territory. Something newsworthy must have happened to reverse the day's moves in equities, currencies and commodities (a little less so for the bonds). We've got a little reversal of the reversal in progress so we'll see how it shakes out but obviously watch out for the volatility here.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 11:14:07 AM

Biiig bounce. While it's nice to see a bounce, don't get too excited yet, because these bounces are taking the OEX and SPX up to test the support levels that had held over the last few days. For the OEX, that's the 560-561 level, with potential Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes at 561.22-562.30. These indices may get knocked back now to test support. For the OEX, those who are tired of the declines would like to see 556.40--or 554-555 if that doesn't work--hold as support on 15-minute and 30-minute closes. We can expect some volatility still, perhaps, as those who are sure the bottom is in battle it out with those who have been successful for a very long time at selling the markets.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:13:27 AM

GLD $96.09 +0.18% ... inches back green.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:12:23 AM

Semiconductors +0.03% ... inch green.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:11:32 AM

Airlines reversing gains ... +1.98% ... among sector winners.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:11:16 AM

Biotech 777.69 +2.36% ... build strength.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:10:20 AM

QQQQ $44.24 +0.02% ... inches green.

Keene Little : 7/15/2008 11:09:42 AM

Oil (and USO) getting hit with lots of selling here. USO currently down -6% and dropping hard as I type. Gold is following. Equities rallying. Ooo, suppose PPT to the rescue?

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:09:42 AM

Swing trade stopped alert! ... for the GLD $95.56.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:08:47 AM

USO $111.29 -5.12% ... plunging. plunging now.

Jane Fox : 7/15/2008 11:08:28 AM

Huge volume on Crude as well.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:08:14 AM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $96.103 +0.12% ... nasty looking reversal.

Jane Fox : 7/15/2008 11:08:13 AM

Crude is selling off now at 138.50

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 11:08:07 AM

Tab, I wish you posted more often. (Tab's 11:06:50 post.) You provide a lot of background that's great to hear.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:07:30 AM

VIX.X 29.79 +4.59% ... slips back under QRTLY R2.

Tab Gilles : 7/15/2008 11:08:14 AM

Valid point Linda (10:55 post).

I personally like JPM, in part that they were chosen to takeover Bear Stearns...why because out of all the choices they Fed believed they could handle it. That JPM's very capable CEO Jamie Dimon. Back in '98 when LTC hit the market Chase declined 54.2%, so far from its '07 high it is down 45%.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 11:06:34 AM

The VIX's Keltner setup is such that there may be relatively strong support near 29.30-29.50. If not, if the VIX drops well below it and doesn't spring back up, something more than just the expected pullback in the VIX to test support may be going on, and bears would need to be particularly vigilant. The VIX is 29.74 as I type, pulling back toward that potential support.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:05:15 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $114.67 -2.38% ... backfills 7/10 to 7/11 gap higher.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:03:16 AM

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $61.75 -1.98% ...

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 11:03:15 AM

The OEX is having some trouble with potential resistance up to 556.04 on 15-minute closes. It would not be unexpected for it to pull back a bit, even in normal times, but the danger of these times is that these normal pullbacks are met by action when price just gives way. I'm not so sure it will give way this time, but the OEX still has vulnerability to about 546-547 on the daily chart (and the SPX, 1185-1186), so the possibility of prices giving way again still exists, of course.

Keene Little : 7/15/2008 11:02:59 AM

The bounce is holding so far. We could be in a slightly steeper descending wedge than I had depicted on my chart and if so we should see a choppy bounce into an afternoon high. If the descending wedge pattern is correct then we will not see SPX make it back to even 1220. It should be a setup for lower lows tomorrow (which should then be a setup for a bigger bounce into next week). If SPX manages to get back above 1225 it would indicate that we're probably already into the bigger multi-day bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 11:02:45 AM

US Natural Gas Fund (UNG) $54.34 -2.80% ... plunging

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:59:01 AM

iShares Silver Trust (SLV) $189.83 +0.25% ... ~$18.98 spot.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:58:12 AM

Jane ... Silver "stock" ... I track SLV (etf for the commodity) in U.S. Market watch every day.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 10:55:48 AM

One caution concerning the bearish financials: several report this week. Those include WFC tomorrow morning, before the open; BANF, BXS, BK, JPM, and MER on Thursday; and C on Friday, probably along with some I've missed. Those certainly can be market-moving numbers, and I can't make predictions, but with financials clobbered so hard, you must factor in the possibility of a sell-the-rumor, buy-the-fact effect when you're planning where your trades will be placed and where your stops will be, too.

Jane Fox : 7/15/2008 10:53:37 AM

THe Gold ETF is GLD

The Crude ETF is USO

The Silver ETF is SLV.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:53:02 AM

VIX.X 30.42 +6.81% ... gets the trade at WKLY R1.

Jane Fox : 7/15/2008 10:52:38 AM

Jeff try SLV, it is the silver ETF and should perform just like the commodity. Remember stocks get 70% of their movement from the stock market so don't try to buy or sell a commodity with a stock. Use the ETFs if there is one available.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:51:24 AM

HUI.X 469.28 -0.01% ... slips red.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:50:01 AM

Sector Winners ... Biotech +1.59%, Pharma +0.49%, Gold Bugs +0.37% and Treasuries.

Tab Gilles : 7/15/2008 10:48:17 AM

The market hates uncertainty....here are some excerpts from Bernankes testimony.

During the second quarter, credit spreads generally narrowed, liquidity pressures ebbed, and a number of financial institutions raised new capital. However, as events in recent weeks have demonstrated, many financial markets and institutions remain under considerable stress, in part because the outlook for the economy, and thus for credit quality, remains uncertain.

FOMC participants indicated that considerable uncertainty surrounded their outlook for economic growth and viewed the risks to their forecasts as skewed to the downside.

FOMC participants viewed the inflation outlook as unusually uncertain and cited the possibility that commodity prices will continue to rise as an important risk to the inflation forecast.

Given the high degree of uncertainty, monetary policy makers will need to carefully assess incoming information bearing on the outlook for both inflation and growth.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:47:18 AM

All-be darned if I can find a "silver stock" that will perform like the metal.

CDE $2.50 -3.10% ...

wait! SIL $5.20 +12.31% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:46:22 AM

Barrick Gold (ABX) $51.39 +1.98% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:46:01 AM

Newmont Mining (NEM) $52.43 +0.98% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:45:36 AM

GoldCorp. (GG) $50.04 -1.97% ... off all-time high of $52.65

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:44:58 AM

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 471.10 +0.37% ... off session high of 479.35.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:43:47 AM

With gold and silver sharply higher, miners being weak in London suggests distate for equity.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:42:38 AM

European Markets Link ... broadly lower.

"FTSE slides 2.6% by midday on banks and miners

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 10:42:15 AM

Jeff just mentioned the Asian markets. Last night, a lot of talk centered on how much exposure Japanese financials had to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Apparently, many felt they'd dodged the bullet with the subprime mess, but not with this one.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:41:03 AM

Asian Markets Link ... finished broadly lower.

Tab Gilles : 7/15/2008 10:40:36 AM

Link to Bernanke testimony Link

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 10:38:39 AM

The A/D line is -2675. I would watch for bounce potential to kick in any time from this level down to -2968.79. There are only currently 3,291 issues on the NYSE, and it can get only so negative. Currently only 315 of those are advancing.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 10:35:55 AM

For reference, the previous OEX low of the day was 549.62. OEX at 551.69 as I type.

Jane Fox : 7/15/2008 10:36:02 AM

The only fly in the proverbial bear pie is the TRIN. The TRIN is currently at 0.69 and has made a low of 0.54 so one has to be scratching ones proverbial head.

Keene Little : 7/15/2008 10:34:54 AM

Nice little short-covering bounce but will it hold? SPX bounced off the bottom of its parallel down-channel from the May high (broke it slightly) so maybe we'll see a bounce hold for a little bit. The pattern calls for lower lows but as mentioned before, I thought it would be an orderly decline (if not choppy) and we should get a bounce before continuing lower (unless we're in crash mode).

Jane Fox : 7/15/2008 10:34:10 AM

This is one of those days when you have to take the trajectory of the AD volume into account. When it is straight down like this (middle chart) you are just looking at the VIX and, to a lesser extent, the AD ratio for confirmation. Usually the VIX will rule but on days like today it is the AD volume.

The VIX is not making new daily highs but it is pressing against its daily highs so, although not totally confirming the AD volume, it is certainly not contradicting it. The AD ratio is sidewinding and that just says its will go with the flow. Link

Tab Gilles : 7/15/2008 10:33:20 AM

Taking a historical look back on the NYLOW- NYSE New Lows using a 10 week ema, along with the $VIX & $SPX-

1998 Long Term Capital: Link

Sept 11th, 2001: Link

Currently: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:32:47 AM

Swing trade long raise stop alert! ... for the 1/2 position in the StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $97.37 +1.52% ... to $95.56.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 10:32:25 AM

TED spread is 1.50.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:30:54 AM

TMW $86.77 +2.99% .... 1/8 position up $23.10.

UWM-HS $1.75 x $2.25 ... 1/2 position -$60.00

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 10:29:23 AM

Remember that OEX vulnerability to 546-547 before you risk too much on your "bottom is in" thoughts, but if you're in bearish trades, remember that VXO test of the descending trendline off the January high and use that test to remind yourself to keep updating your profit-protecting plans. Resistance is of course sometimes breached, on the VXO chart as well as on any other chart, but it's something to keep on the radar screen. In other words, just because there's vulnerability to 546-547, don't hold on when your profit-protecting plans' stops are hit just because the OEX didn't first hit that 546-547 level.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:29:23 AM

RUT.X 653.78 -1.61% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:28:52 AM

Bank of America (BAC) $18.98 -5.80% ... BAC-TD $2.84 x $2.90.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:26:02 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:19:08 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $116.20 -1.08% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:18:35 AM

YRC Worldwide (YRCW) $14.07 -3.16% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:18:07 AM

JB Hunt Transport (JBHT) $33.88 +4.24% ... lurches green.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 10:15:41 AM

Keene, until about three weeks ago, I didn't think we'd get here until early in the fall! (Keene's 10:11:10 post.) I never thought the March low was it, which is why I'm one of those mythical "money on the sidelines" people right now, but I thought we might have a summer of range-bound trading before another retest.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 10:13:45 AM

SPX near 1200 and OEX near 550: there may be some buy-the-round-number efforts that kick in near here. The one thing that would make me wonder whether that would be only that temptation at work is the VXO's current testing of the descending trendline off its January high. The VIX has a bit more to go before it tests, though, with its trendline at at a hair under 32. Anyway, if a bounce attempt starts, we'll need to watch these volatility indices carefully, and, currently that "if" a bounce starts is a big "if." Continue to factor in OEX vulnerability to 546-547.

Keene Little : 7/15/2008 10:11:10 AM

Linda mentioned the BIX in breakdown mode. So too is SPX. By dropping hard through 1212, the bottom of the descending wedge that I thought it was in, we could be in potential crash mode here. I didn't think we'd get a capitulation event but now I'm not so sure.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:07:13 AM

Euro CurrencyShares (FXE) 160.22 +0.52% ... challenges record highs.

Jane Fox : 7/15/2008 10:07:09 AM

VIX is certainly confirming all the bearishness this morning. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 10:06:53 AM

The VXO (old VIX, determined using OEX options) is hitting a descending trendline off the 1/22 and 3/17 highs. VXO at 32.90 as I type. It's also just now testing its 32.82 high from Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:06:15 AM

Yen CurrencyShares (FXY) $95.75 +1.77% ... gapped strong above its 150-day SMA.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 10:05:33 AM

And there goes that support, too, for the OEX. Rolling up to the 30-minute chart shows potential support there on 30-minute closes at about 551, but remember the vulnerability the 546-547 level shown on the daily chart.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:05:06 AM

StreeTracks Gold (GLD) $97.48 +1.62% ... retraces 80.9% of recent decline.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:04:15 AM

VIX.X alert! 30.25 +6.21% ... gets the trade at QRTRLY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:03:33 AM

US May Business Inventories +0.3%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/15/2008 10:03:07 AM

Fed awards $78B in 28-day credit via term auction facility.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 9:59:54 AM

The OEX's last push has nudged the potential Keltner support on 30-minute closes a bit lower, too. It's now at 553.70. OEX at 554.67 as I type, having hit a low of 553.83 and bounced a little.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 9:58:28 AM

Jane may have mentioned it already, but we have business inventories at 10:00, and of course anyone listening to CNBC knows that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify at 10:00 am ET and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, at 11:30.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 9:55:06 AM

The OEX was vulnerable to a Keltner level now at 553.80, and it may well get there. OEX at 555 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 9:54:09 AM

At 29.66, the VIX is now breaking high enough above Friday's 29.44 high that it's no longer an equal high test. Value/RSI divergences are tentatively showing up as the VIX presses higher, for whatever that's worth.

Jane Fox : 7/15/2008 9:51:38 AM

Egads the AD line is -2078 and heading lower.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 9:50:55 AM

The OEX closed that first 15-minute period just below the potential Keltner support on 15-minute closes now at about (because it's dynamic and will shift with big movements, even as I'm posting this) 556.70. At 556.19 as I type, the OEX is testing that potential support. If it can't scramble back above it, this chart shows vulnerability to next potential support at 553.89.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 9:46:40 AM

A/D line -2089. There's no bounce yet, obviously.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 9:45:52 AM

The BIX is in breakdown mode on every Keltner chart I have, from the shortest term up through the weekly. This move is way extended. That doesn't mean that the BIX will snap back immediately, but only that it could at any time. If your trade depends on a poorly performing BIX, you might keep this on your radar screen. BIX at 127.39.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 9:42:26 AM

The A/D line has adhered better to S/R as shown on a 10-minute chart lately, rather than the 15-minute. Therefore, I'll point out that it's approaching possible first support on 10-minute closes, now at about -2100 with the A/D line now at -1986. The A/D line tends to overrun Keltner S/R lines just a bit, but it's possible that a first bounce could come from this Keltner level. If not, then there's vulnerability to about -2200 and then, if it's a really ugly day -2500 or even lower.

Jane Fox : 7/15/2008 9:40:44 AM

Certainly does not look like Fannie Mae is catching a bid quite yet. It is down 8% at the open. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 9:39:43 AM

The OEX now has potential support on 15-minute closes at 556.74 and 556.98. At 555.86, the OEX is between the two, but we still have a number of minutes left in the first 15-minute period.

The VIX is 29.47, pausing near Friday's 29.44 high. It's broken slightly above it but is still in the equal-high testing range. Just something to watch.

Jane Fox : 7/15/2008 9:36:16 AM

Gold is continuing its move up but without me on board. I took profits on a long GLD position too soon but I have a set of rules that tell when to get in and when to get out. I need Gold to pull back now so I can get back on board. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 9:35:42 AM

The OEX now tests potential support in the 556-557 area, although it's vulnerable to 554 on these short-term charts and lower on daily ones. It's at 555.81 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 9:34:09 AM

At 29.47 as I type, the VIX is testing Friday's 29.44 high.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 9:31:09 AM

My feed for the TED spread is delayed, but it's now 1.45. If it should climb toward about 1.70, it will be hitting the top the descending channel in which it has been moving since last August. There's nothing that says that resistance that has held for almost a year will continue to hold, but I would certainly watch for it to do so. In several cases, equity markets have already begun a recovery as the TED spread makes its final test of resistance, although not in all cases, but this is another remind for bears to be careful. There's a caveat, though: my only feed for this is the Bloomberg site and their charts do not allow me to draw trendlines, so that 1.70 is an "eyeballed" figure.

Keene Little : 7/15/2008 9:21:11 AM

I had mentioned late yesterday that the market was set up for a decline out of the gate but I didn't expect quite this much of a gap down. The bottom of the descending wedge shown on the SPX 60-min chart (assuming this is the pattern that will play out this week) is near 1212. The pre-market low in ES is 1210.75 (currently up +9.00 from the low) so a retest of it would have SPX down to the bottom of the wedge. That should be followed by a small bounce into this afternoon and then perhaps a final low near 1200 tomorrow.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 9:19:21 AM

The TED spread is 1.42, up 0.08 or 5.996%.

Linda Piazza : 7/15/2008 9:18:04 AM

Good morning. I wish we were signing on with better news this morning, although I congratulate those bears among you who are profiting.

Futures have been shifting around a bit, being more down and less down, although the theme is always "down." So, it's a bit dangerous to extrapolate where the OEX might go based on the SPX futures current distance from fair values. However, we have some targets to watch anyway on the OEX and they're fairly in line with where we might extrapolate that the OEX could go based on the SPX futures. If the cash market were to drop in accordance with futures action--and, although it has tended to do so lately, it doesn't always--the OEX might be headed down first thing to test the 554-556 zone. The OEX has potential support on 30-minute closes that will likely be driven toward 556 by the early action and, on 15-minute closes, probably at about 556.50 after an initial drop. These are estimations. Next support on these short-term charts will likely be driven to about 554 or just below by the early action. We see potential support at these levels, then.

But you know if we're to finally get some kind of capitulation day, these short-term levels won't matter. As I mentioned yesterday, the OEX's daily Keltner chart shows a vulnerability to the 546 zone on a daily close, which means it could even be pierced during the day but a close near or above it would show that the support had held.

I wanted to mention something that I mentioned earlier in the week. The VIX is breaking out above a daily Keltner channel that mostly contains it. The times that it hasn't have been 3/17, 1/22 and 1/23, early November and last August. Here's a warning for bears, though. Although last August and November, the VIX maintained a breakout over a period of time while indices continued lower, in both those other periods, in January and March of this year, each day of a VIX breakout was characterized by a sharp SPX (and OEX) bounce off the lows of the days as these indices marked near-term lows. If the VIX continues this breakout and moves up sharply, bears must remember this pattern and be especially watchful of their profits. I know I've been warning of this for three weeks now, and those warnings have not been needed, but that doesn't mean that they should be ignored now.

Bulls, this is not license for you to hold onto positions you shouldn't be holding. We don't know which pattern will occur, the sharp bounce off the low as a final (for this period of time anyway) low is made or a more protracted probing for a low that's only just now beginning.

Jane Fox : 7/15/2008 9:06:23 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Soaring food and fuel costs drove annual British consumer price inflation to a record 3.8% in June, the Office for National Statistics reported Tuesday, boosting expectations the Bank of England may be forced to begin reversing previous rate cuts.

"These very bad data increase the risk of a rate increase," said Brian Hilliard, U.K. economist at Societe Generale.

The annual rise is the highest since the CPI series began in 1997. On a historical measure based on the old retail price index, the annual inflation rate is the highest since June 1992, the ONS said.

The data underline the deepening dilemma faced by the Bank of England's rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee as it struggles with slowing growth, which would argue for easier monetary policy, and surging inflation, which would argue for tighter policy.

The 3.8% annual reading is well above the government's 2% target, and marks a further acceleration of inflation pressures after a 3.3% rise in May.

Jane Fox : 7/15/2008 9:03:51 AM

And on top of everything else the price of Crude is back in rally mode. Link

Jane Fox : 7/15/2008 9:01:46 AM

All American equity futures markets broke their respective previous day lows overnight. One as to wonder when this selling will stop but so far the markets have not run out of sellers yet. Link

Jane Fox : 7/15/2008 8:57:04 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. Bancorp said Tuesday its second quarter net income fell about 18%, to $950 million, or 53 cents a share, compared to $1.16 billion, or 65 cents a share, a year ago.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters First Call expected Minneapolis-based U.S. Bancorp to post a profit of 59 cents a share.

U.S. Bancorp has maintained tough lending standards over the last decade and has so far weathered the banking crisis comparatively well.

Jane Fox : 7/15/2008 8:55:55 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- General Motors said Tuesday it'll raise $15 billion in cash by the end of 2009 through operating actions, as well as asset sales and capital market activities. At the end of the first quarter 2008, GM had liquidity of $23.9 billion, with access to U.S. credit facilities of an additional $7 billion. "While the company has ample liquidity to meet its 2008 funding requirements, it is taking additional measures to bolster liquidity to protect against a prolonged U.S. downturn," GM said. For liquidity planning purposes, GM is using assumptions of U.S. light vehicle industry volumes of 14 million units in 2008-2009 which are "significantly below trend." (Corrects headline to change "million" to "billion.")

Jane Fox : 7/15/2008 8:55:16 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Producer prices jumped in June on a surge in energy costs as food prices also rose, the government reported Tuesday.

U.S. wholesale prices increased 1.8% last month, after seasonal adjustments, with energy prices spurting 6% and food prices growing by 1.5%, the Labor Department reported.

In the past year, the producer price index, which tracks inflation at the wholesale level, gained 9.2% -- the largest rise since June 1981.

Economists have been concerned that rising prices for food and energy will keep pressure on household budgets. The Federal Reserve has become increasingly concerned about inflation.

However, Fed chief Ben Bernanke's expected to strike a less hawkish tone in his message to Congress later Tuesday than in the central bank's other recent communications, according to Fed watchers

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