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Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 10:22:10 PM

While I did profile the EXIT, closing out of the ProShares Ultra Russell2000 UWM Aug $45 Calls (UWM-HS) on Thursday at $4.10 with UWM $46.74, I certainly hope the RUT.X's strength in recent sessions didn't sneek up on subscribers.

Yes! Also long a 1/8 TWM during that time, but used position size to our advantage. Once the move came, it came and kepts TMW loss -2.89% very small (-$34.44).

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 10:08:45 PM

GILD $55.40 +1.07% ... last tick extended $53.95.

It's gotten a bigger weighting hasn't it?

Keene Little : 7/17/2008 10:07:40 PM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

SPX, DOW and NDX ran up to or just shy of their downtrend lines from their May/June highs today and look ready for at least a pullback. Slightly more bearish, the wave patterns suggest a move back down to at least a minor new low below Tuesday's some time next week:
SPX daily: Link
DOW daily: Link
NDX daily: Link

But then you compare those to the RUT which has clearly broken its downtrend line and you have to wonder if the bulls are pulling a sneak attack here: Link

I then went to the granddaddy index, the Wilshire 5000, and it agrees with the first three--we need another leg down to finish the decline from the May/June highs. Whether the RUT follows is a different story. DWC 240-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 10:07:10 PM

RIMM $110.78 -0.19% ... last tick extended $107.57. Thought I was forgetting one, two, maybe three of the NDX/QQQQ heavyweights.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 10:03:23 PM

NDX/QQQQ components and weightings as of 06/30/08 Link

OI Technical Staff : 7/17/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 9:55:56 PM

ORCL's $20.86 +2.05% ... last tick $20.40.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 9:55:12 PM

INTC's $21.99 +5.16% ... last tick $21.55

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 9:54:30 PM

CSCO's $21.52 +1.99% ... last tick $21.25

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 9:53:19 PM

QCOM's $45.56 -3.02% ... last tick $44.99.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 9:51:32 PM

AAPL's $171.81 -0.57% ... last tick was $168.00.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 9:50:52 PM

MSFT's last tick was $25.87.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 9:50:34 PM

GOOG's last tick was $492.75

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 9:49:27 PM

QQQQ's July "max pain" theory now $47.00.

"No way" it can make WKLY R2 tomorrow. Is there?

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 9:45:04 PM

Good gravy ... take a short-term, yet conventional retracement on the QID from Tuesday's high to today's low. Turn on your QCharts' WKLY Pivot levels, then tie in tomorrow's daily.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 9:43:02 PM

I'm not "marrying" Thursday's evenings extended session QID 1/2 position long.

Saw GOOG then MSFT and had to play.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 9:41:07 PM

QID ... using a regular session high=$45.06, low=$43.45 and C=$44.80 ... tomorrow's DAILY Pivot Levels are ... $42.83, $43.81, Piv= $44.44, $45.42, $46.05.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 9:37:03 PM

ProShares UltraShort QQQ (QID) $44.80 +0.62% ... last tick extended was $45.40.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 9:34:17 PM

RUT.X's NH/NL comes in at 28:24

Daily ratio 53.8%, 5-day 18.5% and 10-day 11.6%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 9:30:37 PM

NASDAQ Summation ($NASI) 20-point box Link ... still in column of O. Inched up 29.92 to -1,107.94

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 9:29:57 PM

NYSE Summation ($NYSI) 20-point box Link ... still in column of O. Inched up 7.06 to -1,203.43

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 9:19:03 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

First back-to-back +70% daily a/d ratio since mid-March for the NYSE.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 9:02:35 PM

Biiiiiig volume at the bigboard again today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 6:17:16 PM

You'd think it was a QUARTERLY expiration.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 6:15:42 PM

Huge move in the yen today. FXY 93.47 -1.54% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 6:12:29 PM

Incredible, incredible trading action ...

5-day Net% ... Airlines +25%, Broker/Dealer +13.89%, Regional Banks +13.85%, Home Construction +12.81%.

Then you've got AMEX Nat Gas -9.69%, CBOE Oil -8.52%, Utilities -5.89%, Oil Service -8.52%.

Commidity swings are dizzying ... Nat. Gas -10.59%, Unleaded -10.95%, Oil -10.8%, Palladium -6.86%, Corn -5.16%, Silver -1.71%, Wheat -1.60%, Gold -0.98%, Copper (unchanged).

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 5:59:00 PM

I'm exhausted! ... What a day ... what a week! It's still not over. Op-Ex tomorrow!

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 5:56:52 PM

Most Actives were ... XLF $20.18 +3.91%, SPY $125.20 +1.00%, WB $13.44 +27.51%, C $17.68 +9.10%, QQQQ $45.64 +0.66% ($44.80 extended; see 04:05:43; 04:08:07 and 04:28:14), BAC $25.46 +16.89%, FRE $8.33 +21.96%, UYG $19.54 +12.94%, FNM $10.93 +18.16%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 5:34:14 PM

Robert ... email reply on its way.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 5:25:40 PM

YM 11,401

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 5:07:37 PM

BIX.X 170.98 +8.73% ... finished a smidge above its WKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 5:06:55 PM

Zions' WKLY S2 $20.85, S1 $23.27, Piv= $26.24, R1 $28.66 (high of day), R2 $31.63.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 5:05:34 PM

Zions' Earnings Press Release ... Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 5:04:48 PM

Zions Bancorp (ZION) $27.30 +15.97% ... $26.05 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 5:04:04 PM

KO and UTX reported prior to bell. Jane, Linda, James, Tab may have gotten.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 5:02:34 PM

ditto for Safeway (SWY) $26.78 -10.76% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 5:01:57 PM

NUE $59.81 -11.07% ... got whacked today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 5:00:55 PM

GILD's earnings have hit the wires. Link

As noted in Monday's wrap, biotech internals (bullish %) were strengthening notably vs. other sector bull %

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 4:59:23 PM

Gilead Sciences (GILD) $55.40 +1.07% ... $54.95 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 4:58:37 PM

Tons of mid-cap and probably small-cap financials reported today. Look at them all. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 4:56:33 PM

AMD $5.32 +5.13% ... has been released for trade. $4.80 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 4:55:42 PM

Merrill Lynch (MER) $30.73 +9.75% ... $28.20 extended on earnings.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 4:47:03 PM

IBM $126.52 +0.46% ... released for trade. $126.66 extended.

Action will be in the Q's

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 4:44:47 PM

QID $45.10 ... WKLY S1 $43.60, Pivot $45.58, R1 $47.73.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 4:44:07 PM

GOOG $499.00 ... WKLY S2 at $500.28

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 4:43:44 PM

MSFT WKLY R1 right here.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 4:43:34 PM

Two (2) NDX/QQQQ heavyweights.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 4:43:18 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) Alert! $27.59 +1.21% ... $26.00 extended on earnings.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 4:42:34 PM

Back ..

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 4:29:04 PM

Shutting down, reboot.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 4:28:48 PM

I don't think it will, but if it does, want to be there.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 4:28:14 PM

If QID gets close to WKLY R1 ($47.73), let's take the money and run. QID set target alert! at $47.70

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 4:24:54 PM

Right?

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 4:24:41 PM

Last tick at 04:14:57 I had for YM was 11,396. (when QCharts locked up on me.) If YM lower/higher, should get possible read on IBM response.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 4:23:17 PM

IBM at Wednesday's close was 9.12% weighting in INDU/DIA

Tab Gilles : 7/17/2008 4:22:50 PM

Google (GOOG) $477 -$56 in AHT

Google reported revenues of $5.37 billion for the quarter ended June 30, 2008, representing a 39% increase over second quarter 2007 revenues of $3.87 billion and a 3% increase over first quarter 2008 revenues of $5.19 billion. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 4:19:59 PM

IBM $126.52 +0.46% ... Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 4:18:28 PM

AMD is halted.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 4:20:45 PM

IBM is halted. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 4:17:23 PM

IBM's numbers release ... I've lost market connections.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 4:15:33 PM

My option montage terrible today ... missing OI for many call and put at these extended session levels.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 4:13:31 PM

Goog's July "Max Pain" theory tabulation at last night's close was $580 ($10 inc.)

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 4:08:07 PM

Stop will be $43.00 (cash session only)

Tab Gilles : 7/17/2008 4:05:43 PM

Google (GOOG) Q2 eps $4.63 stock getting crushed in AHT on dissapointment.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 4:05:25 PM

Swing trade berish long alert! ... for 1/2 position in the ProShares Ultra Short (QID) here at $44.57

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 4:04:08 PM

Google (GOOG) Alert! $533.17 -0.45% ... plunges on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 4:03:36 PM

DIA $114.49 +2.06% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 4:03:15 PM

SPY $125.93 +1.58% ...

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 3:59:07 PM

The OEX's candle today is a strong one, and it's one that sprang up from the daily 10-sma and 9-ema, my prefered moving average. The OEX is ending the day at potentially strong resistance, resistance that was mentioned earlier this morning, so that clouds the picture a bit. This will be the first daily close above the 10-sma since 6/05 and that one was just a one-day wonder--which offers a bit of a warning. Other than that one, the OEX has not closed a daily close above that 10-sma since 5/19. It was about time, don't you think?

Some charts suggest the possibility of a push up toward the 30-sma, now at 593.10 but still descending sharply, while others suggest that the OEX is either going to have to go into pure breakout mode to achieve that, bulldozing past that 583-586 strong potential resistance, or else will need to do some consolidation first.

The possibility of more than consolidation exists. If the OEX pulls back strongly, watch for potential support now near 570-572.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 3:58:43 PM

I'd strongly suggest a day trader get as flat as a pancake.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 3:57:55 PM

Get ready for some volume. If day trader of equity futures ... might want to put on a dose of Rogaine.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 3:55:44 PM

SPX 1,258.71 +1.07% ... holding the HEAVY 1,250 call and put strike.

Was ~1,248.68 at 12:24:41

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 3:50:47 PM

NYSE NH/NL 28:136
AMEX 12:41
NASDAQ 56:120
BB 142:268

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 3:49:15 PM

Some "strength from the bottom"

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 3:48:48 PM

Dow's "Little 10" was 18.33% ... but look at them today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 3:44:28 PM

At last night's close ... Dow's "Big 10" was 54.42% weigting.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 3:43:02 PM

Dow's "Big 10" 5:5

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 3:42:29 PM

Dow 30 a/d 21:9

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 3:41:51 PM

Into the close ...

NYSE a/d 2,182:980

NASDAQ a/d 1,869:1,045

Tab Gilles : 7/17/2008 3:36:10 PM

Google (GOOG) $530.77 - $4.81 (0.92%) In the last several quarters, Google's revenue growth rate has decelerated rapidly, which has led to multiple compression. Wall Street expects this deceleration to slow significantly in Q2, key metric to watch in the earnings report, Y-O-Y Net Revenue Growth. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 3:34:21 PM

What happens overnight? The minutes of Japan's Bank of Japan meeting are released at 7:50 pm ET, and the Bank of Japan's Governor Shirakawa speaks in Tokyo at 11:30. Governor Shirakawa is still a bit of an unknown, since he succeeded Governor Fukui only after much political upheaval and a somewhat protracted battle in April of this year.

Tomorrow morning, Germany's PPI is released.

Reporting companies include MSFT, GOOG, AMD, COF and a host of lesser-known financials after the close today and C, HON, MAT, and SLB before the market opens tomorrow. A lot could change before tomorrow morning.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 3:32:44 PM

SEC reporting CHK's CEO stepped in to buy $42.9 milliion in company's stock Thursday. 750,000 shares at $57.25. Holding total value at Wednesday's close approx. $1.7 billion.

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 3:25:29 PM

The OEX's 30-minute 9-ema so far is holding as support again, but there are a few minutes left in this 30-minute period. The OEX has not succeeded in producing a new high. Neither have bears--so far--succeeded in driving it much off its low of the day, so a test of the day's high and perhaps even an attempt at that potential Keltner target (and potential resistance on 15-minute closes) just over 583 remains possible. It's going to be all about positioning ahead of opex settlement and the various overnight developments now, so I wouldn't give overdue credence to what your indicators are showing.

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 3:17:37 PM

If you have open credit spreads on indices such as the SPX which settle tomorrow morning at the open, and if you haven't been trading them long, you might not understand how crazy those settlement values can be. They are not determined by the opening value of the SPX, but rather by the opening prints of all the component stocks of the SPX and those are rolling open. If prices are declining into the open, each stock opening a few seconds or minutes after another could be opening successively lower and the settlement value could be way below the SPX's opening print and way, way below the Thursday close. The same thing happens to the upside, too. So, evaluate how close your sold strikes might be and whether you want to accept that risk overnight or want to give up a little of your credit to close those spreads.

The OEX options, of course, trade through tomorrow and have settlement values based on Friday's closing values for each component stock.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 3:15:15 PM

PBR's July "max pain" theory tabulation at last night's close was $60.00 ($2.50 inc.)

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 3:13:42 PM

No new high for the OEX and it's just hovering over potential support down to about 575.82 on 30-minute closes. Bulls would prefer that it find support on 15-minute closes above 576.83 or at least 576.09. I can't tell you what the shape of today's candle says about what might happen because that candle could change shape radically before the close. Just make your decision about whether you intend to hold bullish positions overnight and adjust your stops accordingly, but I repeat advice I've been repeating since yesterday: don't allow a profitable bullish trade to become a losing one in this environment.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 3:13:38 PM

Sombody's DnTick Vold the PBR $52.50 call for 1,000 at $5.60.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 3:10:04 PM

One day and just less than 1 hour until July expiration.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 3:09:14 PM

It was largely call. Oh the pleasure for the $100 puts.

Tab Gilles : 7/17/2008 3:09:04 PM

In reference to my 2:44 post on old tech versus new tech, MSFT +2.1% reports after close (forgot to include in forementioned post).

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 3:08:46 PM

Oh the pain! ... MUR's July "max pain" theory tabulation at last night's close was $85.00 ($5 increments)

Keene Little : 7/17/2008 3:08:41 PM

Yesterday I showed a chart of oil (Sept contract) and how it had broken its uptrend line from April 1st. After the bearish divergences confirming a potential rising wedge pattern the break could be significant and a retracement of the wedge would have oil back down below $100 relatively quickly (by September, which would coincide with a stock market rally).

The same chart for USO shows a downside target zone of $70-$80 and hence my recommendation yesterday for some USO puts. But a better entry might be after a bounce off its uptrend line from February, currently near $103. That's what I'll be watching for (and hopefully get) to see how a good short play in oil sets up as early as next week. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 3:06:56 PM

03:00 U.S. Market Watch ... a/d's at the top Link

Tab Gilles : 7/17/2008 3:05:56 PM

$VIX 24.47 -0.63/ $VXN 28.86 - 1.27

Tab Gilles : 7/17/2008 3:04:52 PM

JP Morgan (JPM) $39.75 +$3.81 (10.6%) Testing 50-ma $40; 200-ma at $43.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 3:04:32 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) $78.20 -4.98% ... plunges below its 200-day SMA ($81.53) and retraces must more than 61.8% of its Jan low to recent July high.

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 3:03:00 PM

The OEX has in fact dropped down to test the rising support. So far, it looks like a normal and expected drop to retest the rising 30-minute 9-ema's support, but we've been trained the last weeks to expect these "normal and expected" drops to result in support suddenly cratering and prices dropping. If that doesn't happen and the OEX can bounce up through a new high again, bears may help fuel further end-of-day rises, but an hour can be a long, long time in a trading day and much can happen. These days, ten minutes can be a long, long time.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 3:01:45 PM

Just backfilling their 7/10 to 7/11 gap higher.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 3:01:03 PM

Euro CurrencyShares (FXE) $158.37 -0.05% ... unmoved by today's action in oil

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 2:59:35 PM

Remember that the tenor of trading sometimes changes when the bond market closes, which will happen in a few minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:56:03 PM

PBR -5.23%

JBLU $4.06 +5.18%

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:55:23 PM

Might need some if USO breaks $93.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:54:22 PM

Any bearish plays you like in oil Jane?

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:52:01 PM

My "energy watch list" has SLB $95.90 +0.04%, VLO $33.18 +2.31%, TSO $17.58 +4.20%, FTO $19.50 +4.11% and PTR $128.73 +0.17% bucking some weakness.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2008 2:47:10 PM

Ya gotta love that MACD. It was telling us Crude's last rally was not going to have much, if any, follow through. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:50:14 PM

USO $105.14 -3.76% Link ... $0.50 to match futures. "Edges lower"

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:49:05 PM

PBR $57.01 -5.31% Link ... set to test its 200-day SMA ($56.59)

Tab Gilles : 7/17/2008 2:44:33 PM

Hmmmmm....???

Old tech rallying INTC +6.52% and CSCO +2.89%....yet GOOG which reports after the close is -0.63% and AAPL -0.24%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:44:31 PM

What about the trains ?

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:44:05 PM

FedEx (FDX) $78.42 +1.89% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:43:46 PM

Simply, positively has to be there ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:43:30 PM

UPS $59.90 +1.28% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:43:15 PM

Or ... do to us?

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:43:05 PM

What can brown do for us?

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:42:41 PM

YRCW $18.19 +7.44% ... threatens a close above its 200-day SMA. would be first time in months, quarters!

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:42:01 PM

CAL $9.74 +5.98% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:41:46 PM

AMR $6.82 +17.18% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:41:15 PM

JBLU $4.06 +5.18% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:40:36 PM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 5001.75 +1.75% ... reclaims the psycho 5,000

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 2:38:21 PM

The OEX's 30-minute 9-ema is now at 576.75. It's served as support on 30-minute closes since about an hour after the open yesterday. The 15-minute chart suggests the possibility of a bigger pullback, perhaps to 576, but bulls don't really want it to get that far and certainly not any deeper than about 575.90.

Tab Gilles : 7/17/2008 2:37:23 PM

I don't see T.Boone Pickens ...Jeff analyzing real estate.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:36:31 PM

Trump Entertainment (TRMP) $1.45 -1.36% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:35:16 PM

Donald Trump analyzing oil on CNBC.

Tab Gilles : 7/17/2008 2:34:53 PM

OIl plunges into the close: $WTIC $129.02 - $5.24

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:33:57 PM

USO Alert! $104.86 -4.00% ... threatens to backfill 06/05 to 6/06 gap higher. 50-day SMA above now at $107.81.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:32:26 PM

AMR $6.83 +17.35% ...

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 2:32:14 PM

I mentioned the OEX's March 17 low, now being approached, in my 2:31 post, but I thought it warranted its own mention, not buried in another post. That was 583.64. Keep cinching up those stops if in bullish trades.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:32:12 PM

Oh how I wish we had those AMR $5's back. Just didn't seem achievable by tomorrow's close.

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 2:31:13 PM

OEX bulls need to keep cinching up their stops at the OEX approaches that target on the 15-minute chart and moves toward that potential resistance and other forms of resistance. For example, the 6/27-7/09 period saw a lot of highs, lows, opens or closes in the 583-586 zone. In addition, the March 17 low was 583.64.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:31:23 PM

AMR and JBLU above their 50-day SMA's

CAL well below. Making some adjustments last couple of weeks as to stock selection for bull trades in airlines.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:27:05 PM

IWM alert! $69.47 +1.71% ... above "aggressive downard trend" now. If still "short below trend" you've been alerted.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:24:58 PM

What do you think about this week's "Index Chart of the Week" ... Updated from Monday's wrap Link

"Cramp and ramp?"

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:23:59 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:18:05 PM

but oh the 5, 10 and 30

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:17:43 PM

13-week up 4.5 bp but rather quiet (at this point) and still below WKLY S1 14.13, or 1.413%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:16:31 PM

NASDAQ 1.2 to 0.3

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:16:17 PM

NYSE 2.2 to 0.6

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:16:01 PM

Look at the up/down volume now.

Keene Little : 7/17/2008 2:15:29 PM

Following up on my 1:59 PM comment, one of the reasons I'm considering the sharp bounce off Tuesday's low as only a 3-wave move (and therefore only a correction and not the start of something bigger to the upside) has to do with the fractal nature of EW analysis. The previous 4th wave of a smaller degree (part of the 3rd wave down) was also a very sharp 3-wave advance where the 2nd leg up also achieved 162% of the 1st leg up.

The previous sharp 3-wave bounce was the one from the July 7th low to the July 9th high and is labeled wave (iv) on this 60-min chart: Link . Now we've got a similar pattern and for the same wave label but a larger degree. If this is correct then what will follow will be another decline just as it did following the July 9th high.

Tab Gilles : 7/17/2008 2:17:40 PM

Valero (VLO) $33.04 +$0.66 (2.07%) Valero looks attractive, its market cap is $17.5B, however its takeover Enterprise Value is $22.2B. It wouldn't phase me if they got a takeover or merger offer? Link

Unleaded Gasoline-Continous Contract ($GASO) Link

EIA Refinery Data Link

Recent news: Link Take a look at some January 2010 Call Leaps YPYAF($30), YPYAG ($35) & YPYAH ($40)

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:11:44 PM

I don't think we're going to get a NAKED put in the UWM.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:11:13 PM

VXO.X 25.47 -3.30% ... straddles can blow up in mere minutes, hours.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:10:11 PM

Linda! What OI look like. Where's the RISK at?

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:09:45 PM

They'll be darned close to my Pivot matrix levels.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:09:20 PM

As I update ... OEX trades QCharts' WKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:08:34 PM

It only takes one day, one day of updating internals on an hourly, or every-other-hour basis to really see, or understand how important they are.

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 2:08:17 PM

TED spread 1.36. It's low of the day was 1.33; the high, 1.43.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:06:53 PM

BPSPX from StockCharts.com at last night's close Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:05:59 PM

SPX 1,259 +1.10% ... has reclaimed its 3/17/08 "BSC Failure" low!

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 2:03:27 PM

The SPX has now followed the OEX to a new high of the day. The OEX currently pauses at potential resistance on the daily chart, on daily closes, resistance mentioned since this morning as a point at which bulls might have their profit-protecting plans at the ready, if touched. The OEX's 15-minute chart still shows the potential for further gains, perhaps up to around 583, but the OEX is now hitting that daily resistance as well as the projected upside target for its confirmed inverse H&S on its 15-minute chart. The rest of the gains aren't a given, but nothing shouts pullback just yet, either. Remember that anything can and does happen on an opex Thursday and anything can and does happen when bears are forced to cover after a long slide down, either.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 2:00:23 PM

Real might have gotten "too strong"

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:59:57 PM

RIO $29.00 -5.35% ... offering didn't get priced as favorable has some hoped. Link

Keene Little : 7/17/2008 1:59:27 PM

The rally off Tuesday's low looks a little more bullish now after getting a small consolidation/pullback this morning and now the push to a new high. If I squint I can make the move up from Tuesday into a 5-wave impulsive advance and if true then we'll be due a pullback followed by a rally above today's high early next week. Consider that possibility if you're still short the market.

But it's not clear and I can also consider the advance off Tuesday's low as simply a sharp 3-wave move which makes it a correction. The 2nd leg up for the bounce would achieve 162% of the 1st leg up at SPX 1265, only a point above its downtrend line. If this is correct then the next big move will be back down to a new low below Tuesday's (but it could be just a minor new low for just a retest of Tuesday's low to finish the decline from May and set up a larger rally from there).

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:56:16 PM

CSCO $21.75 +3.12% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:55:58 PM

QLGC $16.68 +2.08% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:55:08 PM

FFIV $33.09 +2.63% ... a "hi-five" to bulls and call it quits? Being short/put a strong stock when the market turns can give me fits.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:53:36 PM

Oh, no ... a cup-a-jo ... SBUX $14.37 +0.20% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:53:00 PM

NVDA $11.38 +0.53% ... even it has gotten green!

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 1:51:24 PM

The A/D line is currently testing its high of the day with further potentially strong resistance near 1750. The A/D line is now at 1505. Keep updating those bullish profit-protecting plans.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:50:23 PM

SPX Heavyweights ... some idea of S&P breadth Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:46:02 PM

Good gravy Jane!

NYSE a/d 2,293:859

NASDAQ a/d 1,917:922

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:45:30 PM

XOM $80.61 -0.24% ... either $80, or membership has some privileg today.

INDU +1.68%

SPX +1.27% ...

Keene Little : 7/17/2008 1:43:51 PM

The downtrend line from June 5th for SPX is currently just under 1264 so keep an eye on that level if this can push a little higher.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:43:24 PM

PBR $57.91 -3.82% ... WKLY S1 $58.14 ... check it out.

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 1:42:44 PM

The OEX has a potential upside target on the 15-minute chart now at 582.88 but it's still descending. The daily chart suggests that the OEX is already running into one level that might cause it difficulty on a daily close, so keep updating your profit protecting plans in case the OEX should pull back either before or after piercing that resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:42:06 PM

USO alert! $105.50 -3.37% ... WKLY S2 here.

Keene Little : 7/17/2008 1:40:35 PM

We're getting a test of this morning's highs but unless they can keep the buying going the retest is showing bearish divergence so far.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:37:14 PM

TRINQ 0.61 ... but here ... a different story.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:36:33 PM

TRIN 1.08 ... buy-side pressure not formidable ... not yet.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:35:48 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,847:977

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:35:34 PM

NYSE a/d 2,232:914

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 1:33:38 PM

VXO dropped to a new low of the day, but now OEX bulls would like to see it stay below about 25.68 and certainly to find resistance on 30-minute closes at 26.04. The VXO is 25.42 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 1:30:57 PM

The OEX might have made it to a new high of the day, but the SPX hasn't. The OEX has looked stronger than the SPX today on Keltner basis on both intraday and daily charts.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:26:37 PM

USO $106.11 -2.87% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:26:07 PM

Swing trade call alert! ... for one (1) of the JetBlue Air JBLU Aug $2.50 Calls (JGQ-HZ) at the offer of $1.70.

JBLU $4.09 +4.14% ...

Jane Fox : 7/17/2008 1:25:19 PM

Notice how the internals are more bullish than they were earlier. This is important if you are a daytrader and need some confirmation to go long. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 1:23:01 PM

The OEX is now hitting lowered potential Keltner resistance on daily closes, now at about 578.80. From here to the potential upside target shown on the 15-minute chart, just above 583, the OEX will be hitting lots of potential stalling points, so keep updating your profit-protecting plans.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:22:17 PM

NASDAQ 1,853:951 ... has turned "inside out"

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:21:59 PM

NYSE a/d 2,221:924

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:21:46 PM

RLX.X 350.90 +2.68% now.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:21:24 PM

Family Dollar (FDO) $24.17 +3.33% ... check it out.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:20:56 PM

WMT $57.59 +1.08% ... jumps above its 50-day SMA. This is NYSE-listed, but monitoring NYSE 10-week bullish % too.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2008 1:19:21 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shares surged again Thursday, and better-than-expected earnings from J.P. Morgan Chase and Huntington Bancshares helped power the financial-services sector higher for a second day.

Shares of the U.S. mortgage giants jumped 30% in midday trading, with Fannie and Freddie hitting respective intraday highs of $13.99 and $9.69 on the heels of their Wednesday rallies. Both companies appeared to get a reprieve from concerns over their viability after, among other things, new rules were announced to prevent naked short-selling of their shares.

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 1:19:12 PM

For reference, the OEX's previous high of the day was 578.38. The OEX is 577.66 as I type. Bulls of course want a new high of the day that sticks.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:18:25 PM

AMR $6.66 +14.43% alert!

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:17:52 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,738:1,076

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:17:42 PM

NYSE a/d 2,146:992

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:16:37 PM

UNG $49.25 -8.59% Link ... anyone naked or overly long here? Changing anyone's mind? Any doubt?

Remember Amaranth?

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:15:22 PM

USO $107.22 -1.85% ... with IYS-TO $1.40 x $1.60.

PBR "just in case."

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:14:29 PM

VIX.X 24.73 -1.47% ...

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 1:14:25 PM

TED spread 1.41.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:14:12 PM

Swing trade put alert! ... for two (2) of the Petroleo Brasileiro PBR Aug $45 Puts (PMJ-TI) at the offer $0.25.

PBR $57.62 -4.22% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 1:11:03 PM

01:00 NH/NL's were ...

NYSE 20:115

AMEX:11:31

NASDAQ 44:96

BB 127:206

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 12:58:37 PM

See the very top of U.S. market watch

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 12:58:21 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,634:1,169

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 12:58:08 PM

NYSE a/d 2,023:1,105

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 12:57:45 PM

I was just about to show you a "come together" looking session when USO hit potential option OI unravel. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 12:53:44 PM

USO $107.42 -1.67% Alert!

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 12:45:06 PM

Potential support for the OEX that's held on 30-minute closes since about 10:30 yesterday is now at 572.63. A drop toward 569-570 can't be precluded, but OEX bulls would of course like to see this potential support hold and bounce the OEX back into another resistance test. Bears want the opposite, but they should be protective of profits if the OEX should drop toward 569-570.

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 12:39:07 PM

I know this reminder seems silly but you don't know how many tales subscribers and other traders have told about forgetting an expiring option. Check your brokerage pages and make sure that you don't have expiring options that you've forgotten, especially if you've written or sold options. With some brokerages, you have to make decisions about what to do about expiring ITM written (sold) options by early afternoon, or they'll make the decisions for you.

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 12:33:31 PM

I'm sitting here trying to decide if the OEX might be more likely to drop back toward 572.35 or might climb back toward the day's high. The 15-minute chart suggests one thing; the 30-minute, another. The A/D line's chart is neutral to slightly short-term bearish. I'm probably going to slow down in my commenting. I'll be here, but I don't want to micromanage on a day when both technical analysis and typical opex activity suggest that it may become increasingly difficult to predict next direction and there may not in fact be a next direction. There's still a possibility of a climb toward 580 but there's also the possibility of a drop, and perhaps one to retest the daily 10-sma and 9-ema's in the 569-570 region. If I say something looks a little this way or a little that way, that may tempt someone into entering a short-term directional trade that might turn out not to be a good idea.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 12:31:29 PM

WB $10.90 +3.41% ... Is most active at this point. Check out intra-day chart with your QCharts WKLY Pivots turned on. WKLY S1 $9.78. WKLY Pivot $13.03.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 12:26:41 PM

Understand what is taking place in nat gas, implications should other products play "follow the leader!" Implications should computer turn it on as a scenario changes.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 12:24:41 PM

Jane! Don't forget that today and Friday are Op-Ex! ! ! !

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 12:23:39 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/17/2008 12:15:38 PM

Here are the internals and as I thought they are not much help today. The box I have put on the VIX spike (bottom chart) is an area you can ignore. The VIX will do this at times and you need to be careful to not use it as a daily high. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 12:11:07 PM

The OEX scrambled above that potential resistance now at 574.64 on 30-minute closes and did close above it rather than at it, but still not enough above it to satisfy bulls in this climate. Now that it has closed above it, however, bulls want to see it pull itself up to a new high of the day. Otherwise, this just continues the look of a triangle building with the apex at about that potential resistance level. OEX at 574.90 as I type. Remember the possibility I mentioned early this morning of a small-bodied candle being produced today. It's not a given, but it's a possibility both from a technical analysis standpoint and from that old pin-them-to-the-numbers action that sometimes starts about now on an opex Thursday. Bulls would rather see more gains.

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 12:07:01 PM

Today the Federal Reserve released its weekly figures on outstanding corporate paper, another measure of how tight the credit market might be. Lately, those figures have been jumping around a bit and haven't been consistently trending toward lower amounts of outstanding corporate paper. This week did produce another decline in the seasonally adjusted figure, however. Outstanding corporate paper declined $9.1 billion, with financials, both domestic and foreign, being responsible for the decline. Asset-backed paper dropped. It appears that credit may have tightened again a bit, not a big surprise given the news.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 12:03:32 PM

PHF $7.89 +1.80% ...

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 12:02:15 PM

TED spread currently 1.41.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 12:00:35 PM

UWM $46.78 +0.75% ...

UWM-SS $0.20 x $0.60

UWM-ST $0.35 x $0.90 (most likely)

Keene Little : 7/17/2008 12:00:12 PM

I'm getting the sense that we're going to see SPX pegged at 1250 today for options settlement tomorrow morning. The other strike I see the possibility for is 1225 by the end of today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 11:58:07 AM

Swing trade sell NAKED put setup alert! ... Must be willing and able to take possession, and WANT to take possession.)

If I see a decent bid in either an Aug $45, or $46 put, I will be looking to sell one (1) of the puts for the MM Risk Managed ($10K=full position).

I want a premium, but I also want the security if on Friday, the UWM were to settle below the strike sold.

RUT/IWM has passed our 60-minute interval test noted yesterday.

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 11:54:56 AM

What we know so far is that the OEX's 30-minute 9-ema did hold as support on a 30-minute close today as it did yesterday once the bounce got started, with that moving average now at 571.81. We also know that, so far, the OEX has had some trouble with potential resistance on 30-minute closes now at 574.68. The OEX is again above it but not a lot above it as this 30-minute period draws to a close. The OEX needs a new high of the day and a 30-minute close well above this average, not along it, to confirm a breakout and a possible move up toward 580-581 or even the 583 that its 15-minute chart suggests.

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 11:44:58 AM

OEX bulls would like to see the VXO drop below its 25.68 low of the day and stay there. Unfortunately, a problem with charts this morning was cleared up but resulted in an erasing of outer Keltner channels on the 30-minute charts, so I can't give a potential downside target on that chart. I do know that OEX bulls don't want to see the VXO above 27 again and particularly not above about 28.40. VXO at 25.99 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 11:36:22 AM

Most Actives ... C $17.33 +5.22%, BAC $24.18 +6.79%, QQQQ $45.19 -0.33%, XLF $19.87 +2.31%, EBAY $23.83 -15.19%, IWM $68.38 +0.11%, F $5.25 -4.37%, SPY $124.83 +0.70%, MSFT $27.52 +0.95%, INTC $21.22 +1.48%

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 11:35:40 AM

Right now, it's difficult to tell whether the OEX is more likely to pull back again toward 571-571.50 or if it's likely to attempt another break above 574.50. Both look possible.

Keene Little : 7/17/2008 11:34:30 AM

NDX managed to tag the top of its parallel down-channel this morning and could be setting up for the next leg down within the channel. The downside potential is just below 1700 for the bearish wave count. But if the bulls can keep the rally going and break above this morning's high there's a good chance we'll see a continuation higher into the end of the month. 120-min chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 11:32:56 AM

The A/D line also dropped to the support I'd mentioned previously and so far has held it on 15-minute closes. It's got potential resistance on those closes now at about 860 and then 1400. It's at 715 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 11:30:34 AM

The OEX is so far holding support on 15-minute closes that's now at 572.14. That holding of support needs to be confirmed by a new high. OEX at 574.73 as I type with the previous high of the day at 578.38.

Tab Gilles : 7/17/2008 11:17:56 AM

$VIX 25.21 +.11; $VXN 30.53 +.40

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 11:17:37 AM

USO $109.95 +0.64% ... about a bone above "Max Pain" theory and that 06/20 July futures expiration benchmark. Sold out-the-money NAKED put IYS-TO for $1.40 yesterday as USO was trading $108.26.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 11:14:49 AM

BAC $24.25 +6.96% ... above 07/11/08 BAC-TD entry benchmark $21.28 (closed 7/15/07 +70.73%).

Above 7/15/07 BAC-TS entry benchmarks of $19.27 and $18.52.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 11:11:22 AM

FFIV $32.32 +0.24% ... steady. Still above bear entry benchmark $31.01.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 11:10:47 AM

SBUX $13.89 -3.13% ... still weak.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 11:10:24 AM

RIO $29.27 -4.50% ... still weak.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 11:10:09 AM

NVDA $11.05 -2.38% ... still weak.

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 10:51:13 AM

For our Canadian subscribers and any currency traders, the Bank of Canada's Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference at 11:15 am ET to discuss BOC monetary policy.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 10:49:44 AM

Today's Global Econ Calendar Link

DJUSHB 269.46 +1.72% ...

MNST $18.64 +1.52% and MAN $54.97 +4.68%

UNG $51.73 -3.75%

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 10:48:50 AM

The OEX is still holding a little above the potential support on 15-minute closes now at 571.44-572.50. However, the SPX has already more closely tested analogous support, at about 1245.49, so OEX traders might watch the SPX, too, to see if the SPX is able to hold that support. SPX is 1247.46 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 10:40:55 AM

When I look at the A/D line's 15-minute Keltner chart, it shows that unless the A/D line can punch back above about 1240 and stay there, it risks falling back toward about 450-480. It's 1150 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 10:39:52 AM

EIA: Nat. Gas Storage Table Link ... Larger build of 104 Bcf.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 10:39:03 AM

UNG $51.60 -4.00% ... gett'n whacked.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 10:38:09 AM

Forgot EIA Nat Gas release.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 10:37:09 AM

VIX.X 24.43 -2.66% ... just saw a "blip" up to 25.406, and now a "blop" lower to 24.41.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 10:36:03 AM

Swing trade call exit alert! ... for the ProShares Ultra Russell 2000 UWM Aug $45 Call (UWM-HS) at the bid of $4.10.

UWM $46.74 +0.66% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 10:31:53 AM

RUT.X 689.32 +0.37% ... sits on WKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 10:31:20 AM

BIX.X 164.45 +4.57% ... gap to WKLY R1, little move above, then back below.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 10:30:04 AM

QQQQ $45.29 -0.11% ... did trade penny above WKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 10:29:24 AM

SPY $125.00 +0.85% ... above WKLY P, not close to WKLY R1.

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 10:29:15 AM

The OEX's 15-minute 9-ema has now risen to 572.04 with further potential support on 15-minute closes at 571.07. OEX bulls would like to see that hold on 15-minute closes.

Keene Little : 7/17/2008 10:30:43 AM

While I'm expecting the banks to make a decent multi-week bounce it's not likely to be in a straight line. Right now the BIX is struggling with the mid line of its down-channel for price action since March and I wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback before heading higher again. The daily chart shows just one idea of what we could see if it starts to pull back today: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 10:28:45 AM

DIA has come within a penny of WKLY R1.

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 10:27:45 AM

The TED spread is 1.39 this morning, down from its 1.43 high but also well up from its 1.33 low. It's doing some jumping around.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 10:27:13 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 7/17/2008 10:13:33 AM

After a quick pop higher this morning the Trannies have also dropped into the red.

Keene Little : 7/17/2008 10:08:55 AM

NDX is the first one back into the red.

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 10:08:28 AM

The OEX closed the first 30-minute period at the resistance, not cleanly above it. That resistance held, as I thought possible that it might. Bulls would prefer that it break out again, but that may not be what happens. The next preference would be a sideways move before another breakout or a minimal pullback. However, further support is way down at 570.70-571.50 on 15-minute closes and it's possible and maybe even likely that's where the OEX will go next.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2008 9:59:32 AM

JP Morgan (JPM) $40.46 +12.57% ... Earnings Press Release Link

Keene Little : 7/17/2008 9:58:44 AM

SPX rang the bell at 1258 (actually 5 cents shy) so now we'll see if that's all there will be for this morning's rally. The short term pattern looks like it could use at least another minor high but at this point I consider the upside the riskier side.

But if the bulls can do a little more work this morning I see upside potential to a Fib projection at 1264 which matches the downtrend line drawn from the June 5th high (so it's a little higher than the top of the parallel down-channel I showed earlier).

Tab Gilles : 7/17/2008 9:57:45 AM

JP Morgan (JPM) $40.45 +$4.47 (12.44%) Intraday high thus far $40.99 Fibonacci Retracement levels from May thru July. Link Targeting $42 = 200-ma 61.6% Fib Retracement level. Link Link

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 9:57:27 AM

With a few minutes left in the 30-minute period, the OEX's potential resistance on 30-minute closes has now been pushed up to 574.90. Bulls want a 30-minute close well above that. Not sure they'll get it. It's iffy right now.

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 9:51:04 AM

The OEX's target on its 15-minute chart is 582.93, but from this current 578 level on upward, the OEX will face several challenges on the way to reaching that target, if it does. There's a descending trendline just under 580 and potential daily Keltner resistance between 580-581, for example. If you're in bullish positions, you've got an easy job now but one that requires great vigilance. Keep that possible small-bodied potential daily candle in mind to remind you to remain vigilant. Keep updating your stops and do not let a profitable bullish trade turn to a losing one in this environment. If you're in options and the cost of your options has doubled, you can consider selling half, and then have a free trade, no matter what happens next, but still have some options in which to participate in further gains, for example.

Tab Gilles : 7/17/2008 9:42:16 AM

JP Morgan (JPM) $39.30 +3.40 (9.63%) Call Leaps WJPAG $9.1 Bid/ $9.50 Ask, WJPAH $6.30/$6.80 WJPAI $430/ $4.80

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 9:39:14 AM

Potential resistance for the OEX on 30-minute closes is now 574.78. I understand the OEX is above that level now but will it be by the end of the 30-minute period? That determines whether the resistance has held.

Tab Gilles : 7/17/2008 9:37:59 AM

$VIX 24.44 -.66/ $VXN 29.50 -.63

Jane Fox : 7/17/2008 9:37:40 AM

I do believe those overnight highs will be an important resistance to break today.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2008 9:36:57 AM

Equity markets are heading for overnight highs but so far have not broken through.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2008 9:36:28 AM

AD line is +781 and climbing so that is good news for the bulls - sort of.

Tab Gilles : 7/17/2008 9:36:10 AM

ProShares Ultra Financial (UYG) $19.53 +2.23 (13%)

Jane Fox : 7/17/2008 9:34:04 AM

My goodness the TRIN opens at 1.59, this is not good news for the bulls.

Tab Gilles : 7/17/2008 9:31:24 AM

Big tech names reporting after the clsoe today.... Google Link and Microsoft could see a pop upto its 200-ma. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/17/2008 9:31:12 AM

Futures are higher, well above fair values this morning. If the cash markets behave in accordance with futures action, then we should see the OEX attempt to break cleanly above and stay above its daily 10-sma, now at about 571.20. It ended the day yesterday just pennies above it. But can the OEX maintain a daily close above that moving average? That's the question, and we don't know the answer yet.

Factor in that infamous small-bodied candle tendency after a large-range day into your planning. Although I believe that if a real relief rally gets started, we could see prices just shoot higher, I'm not sure that today is going to be the instance when that happens. My crystal ball hasn't been working well lately. I've believed we've been ready for a sharp relief rally (and that's all I believe it will be) for three weeks now and none has appeared. I'll note that if gains are maintained, the daily Keltner chart suggests a test of 580-581, where first strong resistance on a daily close will be found, and, then, depending on what occurs at that level, perhaps a test of 589. However, I would certainly already know how I intended to treat a test of 580-581 if I were in bullish swing trades.

What about the shorter-term charts and shorter-term trades? As of the close yesterday, the OEX had set a potential upside target of 574.38, and if we extrapolate where the OEX might go based on where the SPX futures are in relationship to their fair values, that level could be tested. It could be significant resistance on 30-minute closes. Without a strong and prolonged surge, the first advance could get knocked back from that, even if it was pierced. The 15-minute chart shows a potential upside target near that 580-581 level the daily chart shows, but the OEX has to deal with that 574-575 level first and deal with it without being knocked back too far. The preference would be for the OEX to find support on 15- and 30-minute closes above about 569.50 if it's knocked back from a first test.

If the OEX should drop deeper or drop first, watch for potential support on 30-minute closes first at about 567.30 and then watch for potential support at 564.60-565.30. Any decline deeper than about 563 might invite more selling.

Keene Little : 7/17/2008 9:07:57 AM

Equity futures got a huge spike up this morning after running flat during the overnight session. It may have been a result of more short covering following JPM's earnings report (+$2.5B net excluding "only" $540M Bear Stearns loss). As always it will be telling how well this morning's gap up holds.

Based on the EW count for the decline from May I've redrawn the parallel down-channel slightly to reflect what I think is the end of the 3rd wave at Tuesday's low. I've drawn a downtrend line from the 1st through 3rd waves and then attached a parallel line to the 2nd wave high (June 5th). It's common to see the 4th wave correction find resistance at the top of that channel. The wave count and channel are shown on this 240-min chart: Link

The top of that channel is currently near 1258 (pre-market high for ES is so far 1254.50) and as shown in dark red that could be the end of the 4th wave correction which will be followed by a decline into next week with a final low around 1190. The pink scenario shows the sideways triangle idea where it will run over to the top of the down-channel next week before continuing lower.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2008 8:59:21 AM

Here are your overnight charts and as you can see they are bullish. I would be watching the overnight highs as resistance today and if it breaks then we may have another bullish day Link Watch the VIX and the AD line today to get a hint as to just how bullish. Here is what the VIX and AD line looked like yesterday and since you don't see many back to back days like this I doubt if today will be the same but it should be similar. Link

Tab Gilles : 7/17/2008 8:51:00 AM

Banks reporting today-- Link - and tomorrow-- Link

Jane Fox : 7/17/2008 8:47:29 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - New construction of single-family homes fell 5.3% to a fresh 17-year low in June, while a change in data collection procedures for multifamily units in New York City pushed up total starts by 9.1%, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. A flood of multifamily building permits was filed in New York following adoption of the new rules, skewing the overall data for both building permits and housing starts. Excluding multifamily starts in the Northeast, housing starts fell 4%, the government said. The new rules affected only multifamily construction in New York City. Economists, apparently unaware of the impact of the new rules, expected starts to fall about 2% to a 959,000 annual rate.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2008 8:47:14 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- First-time claims for unemployment benefits rose 18,000 to 366,000 in the week ended July 12, U.S. economic data showed Thursday.

The four-week average of those claims fell 4,500 to stand at 376,500, the Labor Department said. The four-week average smoothes out distortions caused by events such as holidays, weather and strikes.

Continuing claims fell to 3.12 million for the week ended July 5, down 81,000. During the same period in the prior year, continuing claims reached 2.56 million.

The four-week average of continuing claims rose 16,500 to 3.14 million -- the highest level since February 2004.

Tab Gilles : 7/17/2008 8:35:48 AM

JP Morgan Chase (JPM) Pre-Market $37.65: closed yesterday $35.94

JPMorgan 2Q profit falls 53% on loan losses, Bear Stearns buy, but beats estimates!

JPMorgan Chase & Co. earned $2.00 billion, or 54 cents per share, in the April to June period, down from $4.23 billion, or $1.20 per share, in the same timeframe last year. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial had predicted, on average, a profit of 44 cents share. Link Again as I posted yesterday WATCH these JPM Call Leaps; 3 month charts on the WJPAG, WJPAH & WJPAI. Link

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