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Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2008 12:09:18 AM

August Op-Ex Date ... 8/15/08

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2008 12:09:14 AM

SEC extends temporary naked short sale rule through August 12 ... SEC document Link

Keene Little : 7/29/2008 11:53:13 PM

Wednesday's pivot table: Link

The Tuesday rally could have a little more upside if the rally continues right away. Two equal legs up from Monday's low would be at SPX 1273. But the wave pattern was set up at the end of the day for a pullback and we could see a whipsaw kind of week as the market makes its way up to the 1270 area by Friday before heading lower again next week. That's shown in dark red on the 60-min chart: Link

If SPX rallies above 1273 it would be a heads up that it will probably rally above 1291 and a move above 1291 would be confirmation that we'll probably see a rally into the first week of August with an upside target in the 1320 area (shown in pink on the daily chart). However, a break back below 1235 now would indicate the correction to the decline from last Wednesday is finished and we'd likely see some hard selling follow. Daily chart: Link

OI Technical Staff : 7/29/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 8:59:24 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 8:35:34 PM

Most Actives ... MER $26.52 +7.89%, SIRI $1.58 -15.95%, SPY $126.23 +2.09%, XLF $21.40 +7.59%, C $18.45 +5.85%, QQQQ $45.34 +2.07%, IWM $71.18 +2.44%, BAC $32.22 +14.82%, WM $4.43 +12.43%, WB $15.70 +15.18%

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 8:26:27 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 4:43:51 PM

Centex (CTX) $13.89 +10.94% ... Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 4:39:48 PM

Nucor (NUE) $59.20 +3.67% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 4:39:22 PM

Arcelor Mittal (MT) $84.00 +6.04% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 4:38:53 PM

AK Steel (AKS) $57.37 +14.01% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 4:38:24 PM

US Steel (X) $165.76 +14.05% ... Earnings Press Release (pre-market) Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 4:31:27 PM

General Cable (BGC) $61.56 +3.02% ... quiet extended on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 4:28:55 PM

Electronic Arts (ERTS) $47.40 +2.93% ... slips to $46.00 extended on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 4:26:19 PM

MetLife (MET) $52.81 +5.01% ... sharply lower at $47.75 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 4:20:55 PM

Seeing 999,771 bloced extended at $123.46.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 4:19:47 PM

YM 11,376 ... high has been, been 11,379

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 4:14:39 PM

Viacom (VIA) $29.83 -0.56% ... $31 x $32.17 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 4:12:51 PM

Lam Research (LRCX) $31.59 +2.76% ... gets a pop to $32.50 on headline numbers.

Keene Little : 7/29/2008 4:11:44 PM

Oddly enough the price pattern is set up for a reversal tomorrow. So the pattern of strong rallies and declines into the close getting reversed the following day looks like it will hold. But a pullback tomorrow should be followed by another rally leg.

However, if we see a continuation higher tomorrow we could see the whole correction of the decline from last Wednesday over by tomorrow and selling to then continue again (to new lows). I would expect SPX 1273 to get tagged (two equal legs up from yesterday) if we get the stronger and quicker correction.

Jane Fox : 7/29/2008 4:05:40 PM

Very nice bullish day today. The VIX and ES were in sync all day. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 4:03:25 PM

SSO $59.51 +4.36% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 4:02:48 PM

SPY $126.22 +2.08% ... to the close.

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 4:02:22 PM

The late-day action has thrown some doubt on whether the OEX will consolidate through the early hours tomorrow morning and where that range would be if it did. Bulls would hope to see any pullback that's part of an early consolidation find support on 30-minute closes at about 578.11 but at least at about 577.35. Bulls need to be watchful for potentially strong resistance near 584.30.

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 3:52:40 PM

The OEX has climbed a few cents above yesterday's high, so that's no longer an inside-day candle being produced today. The rest of what I said remains true. If yesterday's and today's candles are combined, you still have a doji and that's a doji right at the daily 10-sma. The OEX started out yesterday just above it and it's ending the day there, too. Friday's candle was a small-bodied one sitting right on it. We have indecision and prices chopping back and forth across the 10-sma, the moving average that pressured the OEX down from early May until 7/17, when the OEX finally leaped back across it. I wouldn't be surprised to see this range being chopped out now, maybe from the 7/15 low to the 7/23 high narrow into a triangle.

Keene Little : 7/29/2008 3:41:51 PM

SPX 1262.87 would be a 50% retracement of the decline from last Wednesday and for the move up from this afternoon's low we'd also see a small 5-wave move completed at that level. It would be a good place to take some profits off the table if you're trading today's rally. I'm not sure what kind of pullback will follow but it should be deeper.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 3:40:23 PM

SPY $126.04 +1.94% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 3:40:09 PM

VIX.X 22.32 -7.88% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 3:39:05 PM

At $0.70/contract

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 3:38:43 PM

Somebody taking down some SFB-HZ ... 15,219 now.

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 3:36:11 PM

Again, so far, so good. OEX bulls should hope for pullbacks to continue to find support on 30-minute closes at 577.28, but, barring a further big jump into the end of the day, the possibility of those pullbacks remains at least into the first couple of hours of trading tomorrow.

If the OEX were to end the day right where it is now, at 579.89, the day will have created a green candle with its body entirely within the body of the previous day's candle, a classic inside-day setup. If the two days' candles are combined, you have a doji with a long lower shadow, indicating indecision. We've seen these big up-one-day/down-another swings recently, and these are indicative of emotion-based trading. If you want to make your decisions about where the OEX is going next based on this type of emotion-based trading, go ahead, but I'm not seeing anything that tells me anything definitive about next direction.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 3:36:00 PM

Mexico's May Economic Activity +1% on year.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 3:34:56 PM

1/22/08 relative low on SPY right in here.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 3:34:12 PM

SPY $125.84 +1.77%

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 3:33:26 PM

YM long stop alert! 11,340

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 3:32:25 PM

NYSE a/d 2,405:735

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 3:31:22 PM

YM long raise stop alert! ... to 11,340.

YM 11,345

Keene Little : 7/29/2008 3:28:06 PM

New highs this afternoon are being met with more negative divergences on the 5 and 10-min charts. If we see a rally right into the close guess what the market will do tomorrow morning? This market likes to beat traders who hold over like a rented mule.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 3:27:56 PM

YM long raise stop alert! ... to 11,330

YM 11,347

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 3:25:53 PM

YM long raise stop alert! ... to 11,320.

YM 11,341

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 3:25:03 PM

Majors should go out at, or near highs of session.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 3:24:49 PM

NYSE a/d 2,390:750
NASDAQ 2,067:812

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 3:24:44 PM

The TED spread is 1.09.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 3:24:11 PM

XLF alert! ... $21.00 +5.63% ... Challenges August "Max Pain" tabulation

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 3:23:53 PM

The OEX is again charging at the potential resistance on 15-minute closes now at 578.82. It's possible that end-of-day action can pop it above that, as it's doing as I type, and even keep it above that, but the chart setup still suggests that there could be more choppy consolidation, too, perhaps extending into the first couple of hours of trading tomorrow. That's not a given, of course, but one possibility showing up on the charts. OEX at 579.04 as I type.

Keene Little : 7/29/2008 3:22:07 PM

This SPX 60-min chart shows the setup for another leg up tomorrow, perhaps into a high on Thursday, before turning back down (into some hard selling), shown in dark red: Link . If another leg up starts heading for the July 23rd high then we'll have a good idea that the rally will continue (into a mid-August high around 1320-1325), shown in pink.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 3:20:34 PM

Buy program premium ... SPY $125.66

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 3:20:13 PM

YM long raise stop alert! ... to even.

YM 11,321

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 3:16:31 PM

NASDAQ a/d 2,030:847

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 3:16:11 PM

NYSE a/d 2,373:769

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 3:14:51 PM

YM Long alert! ... here at 11,303. Stop 11,291. Target 11,380

Keene Little : 7/29/2008 3:13:14 PM

The pullback has started and should have more to go (ideally) before we see the market head higher again. The current pullback is small in both time and price so if it heads higher again, especially with bearish divergences at the new high, I'd be careful if in a long position (and just trading this). A little larger pullback to about SPX 1246-1248, at a minimum, by early tomorrow morning would be a good setup for another rally leg.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 3:03:42 PM

NASDAQ a/d 2,038:825

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 3:03:26 PM

NYSE a/d 2,380:765

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 3:01:48 PM

I think that "pop" in USO also related to news. Areas around LA look like Swiss cheese with wells.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 3:01:03 PM

Valero (VLO) $32.89 +3.39% ... saying no damage to LA refineries.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 2:57:20 PM

CME's May'09 LA $70 x $197.40

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 2:56:44 PM

CME's Feb'09 LA $164 x $172

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 2:56:15 PM

CME's Nov'08 LA $176 x $183

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 2:55:41 PM

CME's Aug'08 Los Angeles housing futures $194.00 x $197.80

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 2:55:28 PM

Companies reporting earnings tonight after the close include CTX. Some others are ACE, ADVS, DWA, FMC, HTCH, MET, and probably some others I've missed.

Companies reporting before the bell tomorrow morning include ODP, ALO, AMT, CMI, HES, and probably some I've missed or some that haven't supplied a time yet.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 2:54:19 PM

USGS Upgrades L.A. earthquake to magnitude 5.8

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 2:46:59 PM

Buy program premium ... SPY $125.15

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 2:46:16 PM

What foreign economic releases tonight that could impact your trade? Japan's preliminary industrial production will be released at 7:50 pm ET. The Eurozone's consumer confidence will be released at 5:00 am ET. That's about it before the U.S. numbers come rolling in tomorrow morning. Jane usually notes those, but I wanted to emphasize the importance of the ADP employment number released at 8:15 am ET. Although the ADP has had some spectacular misses, it will be a guage of what the nonfarm payrolls might show on Friday. There's some worry about that, given last week's climb in weekly unemployment figures.

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 2:36:00 PM

So far, so good. The OEX did not dip further but instead bounced from potential support on 30-minute closes now at 577.25. However, some chart setups suggest that, barring a strong surge up through 578.85 and sustained levels above that, the OEX might still need some time chopping around between about that level and 576 before an ultimate direction is decided. Right now, the setup is for an upward resolution but I don't put complete faith in these setups and neither should you.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 2:23:06 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 2:22:42 PM

The OEX's last 15-minute close was just a hair lower than bulls would have preferred, setting up the possibility that the OEX might need to pull back further, perhaps toward 575.95-576.10. That will constitute a test of the 30-minute 9-ema, if it happens, and in fact will be a little deeper than bulls would prefer a pullback to be. If that happens, they want the close of the 30-minute period near or above 576.64 and preferably above 577.22. For now, the dip is a maybe and not a probably.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 2:20:29 PM

IYS-TO $1.50 x $1.65

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 2:20:04 PM

USO $99.09 -1.44% ... holding, holding on.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 2:15:45 PM

IWM $71.11 +2.34% ... checks back at WKLY Pivot (71.05)

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 2:15:11 PM

The OEX's 15-minute 9-ema is now at 577.45. The OEX has so far been bouncing from it today, and bulls would like to see that continue. The 30-minute version is lower, at 576.69, and bulls really want that one to hold as support on 30-minute closes. The OEX is 577.89 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 2:03:15 PM

The A/D line is in breakout mode and has been for a while on the 15-minute chart. Bulls are giving it all they've got. Bulls don't want to see the A/D line sustain values below about 1375, with the A/D line now at 1669.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 1:57:59 PM

SPY Option Chain at this Link

CBOE exchange volume only. Sorted by volume

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 1:54:13 PM

The OEX is approaching the 10-sma from the underside, with that at 579.92. The 30-sma is at 582.97.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 1:46:56 PM

HL Camp has their computers set for program buying at $+1.32 and selling at $-2.14

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 1:46:03 PM

SPY $125.66 +1.63% ... can see the pressure.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 1:45:28 PM

VIX.X 22.60 -6.72% ... nearing WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 1:39:53 PM

SSO $58.95 +3.38% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 1:37:35 PM

SPY $125.68 +1.64% ... nearing "large block" levels.

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 1:33:44 PM

The OEX looks as if it's gearing up for another test of the potential resistance that now converges from 577.80 on 30-minute closes up to 579.15 on 15-minute closes. It's going to need a strong surge or more time to get through this and then sustain values above it. The chart setup suggests the possibility that the OEX could chop between this resistance zone and about 575.50-576 for a number of hours. That's not a given, but it is a possibility that should be factored into trading decisions. If there is chop, bulls do want 575.50-576 to hold as support on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 1:07:23 PM

Small Cap Most Actives

HANS $24.56 +2.50%
SYMX $8.00 -4.19%
AAUK $27.77 +2.02%
IVAN $2.28 -2.56%
NTWK $3.30 -3.22%
DENN $2.55 +5.37%

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 12:53:44 PM

The A/D line has continued to move sideways. In my 11:08:34 post, I noted that all the A/D line had to do was move sideways to maintain its support of equity gains, and bulls have gotten their wishes in that regard. However, I've also warned that the A/D line is at resistance as measured on the 15-minute Keltner chart, so bulls need to keep updating their profit-protecting plans. I would have thought by now that the A/D line would already have dipped to test its 9-ema on that chart, with that now at 1300, but the A/D line hasn't even shown that minor hesitation. If the A/D line does drop to test it, bulls of course want it to hold as support on 15-minute closes. The A/D line is currently 1455.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 12:41:24 PM

Yen CurrencyShares (FXY) $92.18 -0.68% ... spending some time below its 200-day SMA ($93.25)

Keene Little : 7/29/2008 12:41:16 PM

With the bearish divergences showing up on the short-term charts I'd be careful now about any additional upside. We could be nearing the point where we'll get a bigger pullback to correct the rally from yesterday's low. Use the Fib retracements to get an idea where it might find support.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 12:40:30 PM

Euro CurrencyShares (FXE) $156.31 -0.97% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 12:39:50 PM

ProShares Ultra S&P 500 (SSO) $58.67 +2.89% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 12:39:11 PM

SPY $125.35 +1.38% ...

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 12:39:16 PM

The TRAN is still hitting new highs but is now jammed up against its 30-sma on its weekly chart. The TRAN is 5038.81 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 12:38:53 PM

SPX 1,253.01 +1.51% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 12:38:24 PM

US Dollar Index (DXY) alert! 73.34 +0.95% (30-minute delayed) ... get the trade at WKLY R1.

Jane Fox : 7/29/2008 12:35:52 PM

Here are your overnight charts. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 12:31:53 PM

Concur Technologies (CNQR) $42.43 +17.69% Link ... Stock sharply higher after American Express (AXP) $36.44 +3.02% said it is buying 6.4 million shares in the corporate travel company for $39.27.

Jane Fox : 7/29/2008 12:21:01 PM

Even though the TRIN was bearish this morning the VIX was warning the bears to beware. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 12:20:44 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 12:15:24 PM

The TRAN has just surged to another new high of the day, so it's leading to the upside. The TRAN sometimes leads indices such as the OEX, Dow, and SPX.

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 12:10:02 PM

The A/D line's 15-minute 9-ema has now risen to 1160, approaching close enough to the A/D line's current 1465 that it might soon be time for that pullback to test its support, mentioned earlier. Remain watchful for that possibility. If the A/D line does drop to that level, equity bulls want to see it maintain 15-minute closes at or above that level.

Jane Fox : 7/29/2008 12:11:24 PM

Crude tags $120.00. I think it will bounce to retest $130.00 from here so may be a good spot to take a long with the stop just under today's low. Link

Keene Little : 7/29/2008 12:06:23 PM

If SPX can get above 1256 it would be a good sign for another leg up this afternoon. Otherwise watch for resistance around 1255-1256.

Jane Fox : 7/29/2008 12:05:12 PM

The Trin gave the bulls a scare this morning but it has worked its way out now and the bulls have firm grip of the ball. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 12:04:39 PM

The TED spread, on my delayed feed, is 1.09.

Jane Fox : 7/29/2008 12:03:45 PM

AD line is now a very healthy +1420.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 11:56:07 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $32.35 +1.69% ... Earnings Press Release Link

Keene Little : 7/29/2008 11:51:35 AM

Watch for bearish divergences at this new high vs. the one near 10:45 AM. This could be the 5th wave for the move up from yesterday's low (which should show negative divergence) in which case we'll see a pullback this afternoon before heading higher again.

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 11:48:45 AM

Potentially strong resistance for the OEX on 30-minute closes at 577.17-577.85. OEX at 576.62 as I type. Bulls need to update their profit-protecting plans here, just in case.

Keene Little : 7/29/2008 11:48:18 AM

If the market continues sideways for much longer we might not see a pullback before heading much higher today. Instead we could get another leg up like this morning's. It might even be starting as I type. If it just heads higher I'll be watching for where we'd have two equal legs up.

Keene Little : 7/29/2008 11:45:43 AM

The DOW got a nice little bounce off its broken downtrend line from May 19th and it's looking like it could press a little higher before pulling back some. Whether it pulls back from here or after a little higher first, the setup looks good for a continuation higher into tomorrow or Thursday.

As shown on the 60-min chart, at that point it will be a setup for a short play (dark red) but with caution since we could see a much larger rally leg (pink): Link . The short-term bullish possibility is shown on the daily chart with a leg up to about 12K my mid-August before the short play sets up: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 11:43:57 AM

So far, since I posted the chart in my 11:08:34 post, the A/D line has moved sideways, as bulls desire. The 15-minute 9-ema is cycling up beneath it and is now at about 1000 with the A/D line now at 1381. In most entities, when the 9-ema finally closely approaches it, with "closely" being perhaps within 200 points or so, the entity dips down to test that moving average, so it's possible that perhaps in about 30 minutes to an hour, we might see the A/D line do so, too. If so, equity bulls want to see it maintain that support, wherever the 9-ema might be by that time, on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 11:42:34 AM

iShares Russell (IWM) $70.73 +1.79% ... probing QCharts' WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 11:32:24 AM

Discosure: I currently hold bullish position in YRCW.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 11:32:06 AM

Swing trade call alert! ... for one (1) of the YRC Worldwide YRCW Oct $15 Calls (YUX-JC) at the offer of $3.80.

YRCW $16.76 +1.33% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 11:26:37 AM

Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) $6.07 +5.38% ... Telecom equipment maker higher after CEO Patricia Russo and Chairman Serge Tchuruk say they will step down after company reports its sixth consecutive quarterly loss.

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 11:09:15 AM

Here's where the A/D line is on the Keltner chart: Link This offers a warning to bulls to snug up their stops, although it does not offer proof to bears that it's time for them to short. The A/D line only has to trade mostly sideways to continue supporting equity gains. Even a small pullback can be tolerated while equities pull back to retest support, but if the A/D line should pull back and then retest with bearish divergences, bulls should be particularly careful. They should also be careful if any pullback gets too steep, particularly below about 772 and is sustained below that. What bulls would like to see is for the A/D line to keep climbing, nudging that resistance line higher or else to surge higher and break through, creating a breakout that's maintained the rest of the day.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 11:06:43 AM

Citigroup (C) $17.26 -0.97% ... Shares lower on rumor that it may have to write down $8 billion on its portfolio of mortgage-backed assets which it values at roughly $0.53 on the $1 following yesterday's news out of Merrill (roughly $0.23 on the $1).

Jane Fox : 7/29/2008 11:01:49 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Billionaire investor T. Boone Pickens has dumped his shares in Yahoo Inc. after it became apparent that the Web portal will not be acquired by Microsoft Corp., according to a news report.

Pickens also blasted Yahoo's management as "pathetic" for the way it handled failed merger talks with Microsoft Corp., according to the San Francisco Chronicle.

Pickens told the newspaper's editorial board that he bought 10 million shares of Yahoo in May, anticipating a merger with the software giant. He said he was following billionaire activist investor Carl Icahn, who began taking up a stake in Yahoo following the failed merger talks.

Jane Fox : 7/29/2008 11:00:33 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities have fallen a record 15.8% in the past year, as prices dropped in all areas tracked by the Case-Shiller home price index, Standard & Poor's reported Tuesday.

Prices in 10 cities fell 16.9% in the past year. Prices thus are at the same levels as they were in the summer of 2004, which means four years of appreciation have been effectively wiped out.

Prices are down 18.4% from peak levels seen two years ago.

Home prices fell 0.9% in May compared with April, although seven of the 10 cities showed a month-to-month increase, which David Blitzer of S&P termed a "possible bright spot." The pace of the monthly decline has slowed for three months in a row, having peaked at 2.6% in February.

Prices in the so-called bubble regions continued to plunge at a rapid pace in May.

Prices in Miami fell 3.6%, while prices in Las Vegas and Phoenix fell by more than 2.5%. On the other hand, prices rose 1% in Atlanta, Boston, Denver and Dallas.

Jane Fox : 7/29/2008 10:59:28 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The U.K.'s Financial Services Authority said Tuesday that eight people have been arrested across London and the south east of England as part of an ongoing investigation into insider dealing rings. The U.K.'s financial watchdog said the operations involved 40 of its staff, assisted by officers from the City of London Police. The regulator has increased its focus on insider dealing and has brought its first three criminal prosecutions this year, after getting the power to seek prosecutions in 2001.

Jane Fox : 7/29/2008 10:58:36 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumer confidence ticked up in July, the Conference Board reported Tuesday, while the level remained relatively low and job concerns persisted. The July consumer confidence index rose to 51.9 from a June reading that was revised to 51.0 from a prior estimate of 50.4. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected a July reading of 50.0. The percentage of consumers saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 30.3% in July from 29.7% in June.

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 10:53:08 AM

The OEX has successfully closed a 30-minute period above the potential resistance that is now at 573.65 but was then at a slightly different level. Bulls want to see that maintained on 30-minute closes with any pullbacks. The next level to watch for potential resistance on 30-minute closes is 577.23-578.07. I would suggest that bulls fine-tune their profit-protecting plans as that level is approached, if it is. OEX at 575.22 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 10:42:00 AM

TED spread is 1.09.

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 10:38:30 AM

The OEX has now risen high enough that the potential downside target now at 561.53 is questionable. The OEX has to maintain 30-minute closes above about 573.70 to keep that target on the questionable list.

Keene Little : 7/29/2008 10:37:06 AM

SPX stalled right at its downtrend line from last week but it's looking like a small consolidation in preparation for moving higher. The move higher would do two things: one, it would break the downtrend line and two, it would create a small 5-wave advance off yesterday's low and indicate a trend change to the upside. After the 5-wave advance (need a new high first) we can expect a pullback to the 1245 area (maybe for a retest of the broken trend line) and then another rally leg.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 10:36:36 AM

US Steel (X) $167.53 +15.27% ... hot early. Gapped to WKLY R2 ($158.57).

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 10:34:30 AM

Yesterday's SPX NH/NL was 5:8
RUT's NH/NL 12:26

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 10:32:34 AM

Most Actives ... SIRI $1.55 -17.55%, MER $23.13 -4.93%, QQQQ $45.28 +1.93%, XLF $20.32 +2.11%, SPY $124.82 +0.95%, MSFT $25.99 +1.92%, XL $16.80 -8.60%, C $17.17 -1.49%, SDS $69.91 -1.81%, IWM $70.57 +1.56%

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 10:28:44 AM

The OEX is testing that potential resistance on 30-minute closes at 573.97, with a few minutes still to go in this 15-minute period. If it pulls back, bulls would like to see it hold support on 30-minute closes at 572.56.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 10:27:22 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/29/2008 10:11:26 AM

Crude has hit a low of 121.20 so far today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2008 10:05:16 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $98.47 -2.08% ...

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 10:04:16 AM

First improvement in tenor, although slight and tentative, for the OEX. It has closed a 15-minute period above resistance at 571.62, so now bulls want that to be maintained on any pullbacks. The next battle will be at potential resistance on 30-minute closes at 574.05. OEX at 572.87 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 9:58:41 AM

Just a few minutes until the consumer number. Decide now if you want to stay in over that release.

Jane Fox : 7/29/2008 9:58:21 AM

AD line is now at +1042 so The bulls are now in the drivers seat.

Keene Little : 7/29/2008 9:58:15 AM

A downtrend line from last Wednesday's high is currently near SPX 1250 and that's the trend line that the bulls need to break in order to confirm we're into a correction of the decline. So there's some work to be done just to get there but so far it's looking promising.

Jane Fox : 7/29/2008 9:57:22 AM

NOw the VIX Is making new daily lows supporting ES's new daily highs. TRIN is falling.

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 9:56:31 AM

Jane mentioned the excessive TRIN. Here's what it looks like on a Keltner chart, testing resistance that often--though not always--restrains it: Link According to this chart, the TRIN has been finding support on 15-minute closes at its 9-ema, now at 1.37, since about midmorning yesterday (See the little candles climbing along the rising thin red line?), so the first improvement in tenor equity bulls want to see is 15-minute closes beneath that moving average. Equity bears want the opposite.

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 9:52:56 AM

I've been studying the BIX's daily Keltner chart this morning. The BIX has risen to test the daily 9-ema from the underside. That moving average is at 172.64 currently and the day's high has been 173.09 but the BIX is now 168.86. Yesterday, the BIX closed back below this average for the first time since scrambling back above it on 7/16. This average had capped gains from early May until that time, with the BIX dropping back from each test of it.

Unless the BIX can scramble back above it today, it will be maintaining a potential downside target of about 151.50-156 that it set yesterday. OEX, SPX and Dow bulls don't want to see the BIX tumble down to that level again. BIX at 169.24 as I type with potentially strong support on 15-minute closes at 167.93.

Jane Fox : 7/29/2008 9:52:25 AM

TRIN continues to climb and is now at 1.86. Getting a little overdone.

Jane Fox : 7/29/2008 9:50:02 AM

Internals are a mixed bag this morning except for the TRIN at 1.54. A trader should always take note of an extreme TRIN.

Jane Fox : 7/29/2008 9:44:33 AM

VIX and S&P futures (ES) are not in sync. ES is making new daily lows but the VIX is not making new daily highs.

Jane Fox : 7/29/2008 9:43:01 AM

AD line opens at +821. Bullish but not overly so.

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 9:41:44 AM

Now we wait and see. The OEX rose up to challenge that potentially strong resistance on 15-minute closes, now at 572.03, and was knocked back below another part of the resistance band, now at 571.21. There's lots of time left in this 15-minute period, so anything can happen, but it's going to take either some time or a strong surge to get through that resistance.

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 9:39:33 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: the A/D line jumped up above what would have been potential resistance and has now been converted to potential support on 15-minute closes, now at about +280. It's charging up toward Friday's early morning 1039 high, where historical resistance might be found. It has a potential upside target and potential next resistance on 15-minute closes at about 1330, and I would watch for rollover potential beginning now and especially as that higher potential resistance is hit, if it is. If there's a pullback, bulls want it to be a shallow one. A/D line at 936 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 9:35:54 AM

As I reminded readers in my 8:54 post this morning, we have Consumer Confidence at 10:00 am ET. As you make early trading decisions this morning, remember that potentially market-moving number is coming.

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 9:34:36 AM

As a reminder from my 8:54:59 post, the OEX has potentially strong resistance on 15-minute closes that currently stretches up to about 572.15. The OEX needs to sustain 15-minute closes above that before it even begins to change its tenor.

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 9:32:23 AM

The TED spread is 1.08 on the delayed feed I have.

Keene Little : 7/29/2008 9:19:57 AM

No real surprise seeing equity futures up this morning. The hard selling into yesterday's close was a setup for a reversal and the 5-wave move down was a setup for a correction of the decline. Now all we'll need is for bulls to carry the ball and not fumble it. If they do fumble it this morning then we have our downside targets.

If we start a rally today, a typical correction of the decline from last Wednesday would be back up to SPX 1260-1265 area by Thursday before it tips back over and heads for new lows (that's the higher-probability scenario at the moment, the one shown in dark red on last night's 30-min chart).

Jane Fox : 7/29/2008 9:06:57 AM

Crude has fallen and just can't seem to get back up again. $120.00 support has been holding on but I kind of expected the $130 support turned resistance would have been retested by now. This is a very good place to be on the sidelines. Link

Jane Fox : 7/29/2008 9:01:49 AM

Here are your overnight charts and I guess you could say they are bullish but you would expect some kind of bullish reaction to yesterday's selloff. In any case, this is not the kind of reaction the bulls were hoping for. The overnight action is a very weak rally. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/29/2008 8:54:59 AM

As I type, futures are above fair values, but with the Case Shiller House Price Index due at 9:00 am ET, that could change in a few minutes and certainly by the open.

Yesterday, the OEX dropped right to potential Keltner support on daily closes, now from 565.35-568. As bad as yesterday was, then, there's the potential for today's close to also be at or above that potential support, with either a consolidation day or a bounce. A consolidation day would not preclude a move down intraday.

However, here's what short-term charts say. On the 30-minute chart, the OEX has set a potential downside target just under 561. The 15-minute chart shows the OEX in breakdown mode, with downside momentum strong. Sustained 15-minute closes above about 572.15 are needed to change the breakdown mode and change the tenor, even on a short-term and tentative basis. That potential resistance could be tested if futures stay positive and if the cash market moves up in accordance with their current distance above fair values. That resistance could still roll the OEX back down again.

However, if the OEX did sustain 15-minute closes above that 572.15 level, the 560-561 downside target would be questioned. Sustained 30-minute closes above a Keltner line currently at 574.37 would cast more doubt on that downside target and sustained 30-minute closes above 576.37 would erase it.

For now, all futures action is suggesting is that the OEX might rise up to retest its breakdown level on the 15-minute chart. They're not telling us how the OEX will react as that resistance is tested. It could get knocked back down again or it could start the laborious rise up through these multiple levels of resistance.

Remember that Consumer Confidence is released at 10:00 am ET, just about enough time after the open for indices to have climbed and tested resistance and maybe been parked there. A good enough number (forecast 50.0 from the previous 50.4) could prompt some kind of bounce and a bad enough number could roll prices down again.

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