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Keene Little : 8/6/2008 10:07:14 PM

Thursday's pivot table: Link

With SPX breaking its downtrend line from May on Wednesday the bulls would like to see a successful test on any pullback now (may happen on Thursday morning following the disappointment from AIG's earnings report). The trend line is currently near 1279 or about 10 points below Wednesday's close. A successful test of the broken downtrend line should lead to a move higher into the middle of the month, shown in pink on the 120-min chart: Link

Its just speculation as to how a bullish move could play out into the middle of the month but I'm depicting a move up to 1325 where the a-b-c bounce off the July 15th low will have two equal legs up. If SPX drops back below the downtrend line it would be bearish and confirmed bearish with a break below 1247.

The daily chart shows a candle that looks somewhat like a hanging man doji at potential resistance at 1291 so a down day on Thursday would be a bearish reversal signal. Therefore if you're long the market you don't want to see any strong selling on Thursday and especially SPX back below 1280. Link

OI Technical Staff : 8/6/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

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Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 7:07:24 PM

Companhia Vale Dos Rio Doce (RIO) $26.68 +1.98% ... Reuters Earnings Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 7:03:20 PM

American Intl. Group (AIG) $29.09 -2.67% ... Earnings Press Release Link

AIG called lower at $26.90

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 6:32:25 PM

Tomorrow's econ calendar Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 6:31:53 PM

Today's econ calendar Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 5:30:59 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

and this Link

Tab Gilles : 8/6/2008 5:25:04 PM

Research in Motion (RIMM) I'm seeing a similar pattern to that of late Dec. '07/ mid-Feb '08. RIMM and technology in general maybe poised to make a run soon. Link

Watch $140, PnF P/O Link

Tab Gilles : 8/6/2008 5:13:58 PM

Has the Euro put in a double top? Link

A break below 154 the next support 149, causing oil to possibly head towards $100. Link

Keep an eye on the refiners. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 5:08:34 PM

Good gravy!

NYSE 5-day a/d ratio 51% and 10-day a/d ratio 50%

NASDAQ 5-day a/d ratio 51% and 10-day a/d ratio 50%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 4:57:11 PM

DXY's 04:00 tick was 74.267

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 4:31:27 PM

WMT $60.76 +0.69% Link ... after yesterday's break to a new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 4:30:40 PM

JNJ $71.07 +0.88% Link ... after yesterday's break to new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 4:26:29 PM

AAPL will add 1 today. It's an SPX and NDX heavyweight Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 4:25:30 PM

$BPNDX at StockCharts.com was "bull alert" at 37.00% last night Link

Dorsey/Wright's was "bull confirmed" at 38.00% (chart has been 42.00%).

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 4:22:51 PM

$BPOEX had reversed back up to "bear correction" at 42.00% yesterday. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 4:18:53 PM

$BPSPX was "bull alert" at 43.40% last night Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 4:17:48 PM

SSO $62.00 +0.99% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 4:17:35 PM

I think it will Jane.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 4:17:18 PM

$BPCOMPQ at last night's close was "bull confirmed" at 35.72% Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2008 4:16:59 PM

I guess we will have to wait until tomorrow to see if the 38.20% retracement will break. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 4:16:29 PM

$BPNYA at last night's close was "bull confirmed" at 40.38%. StockCharts updates before I get Dorsey Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2008 4:15:35 PM

Economc reports tomorrow include:

8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For Aug 2 Week: Expected: -23K. Previous: +44K.

10:00a.m. Jun Pending Home Sales: Expected: -1.0%. Previous: -4.7%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 4:14:35 PM

I think bulls are going to win.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 4:12:24 PM

VIX.X isn't 20.21 -4.39%

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 4:12:03 PM

Everything above their MONTHLY Pivots. Even the SMH

Keene Little : 8/6/2008 4:11:32 PM

We're left at the end of the day wondering who's going to win here. Bullishly SPX has broken its downtrend line from May. Bearishly it failed at its July 23rd high of 1291 and maintains the potential for the completion of an ascending wedge, a bearish continuation pattern if it's correct. Any further rally tomorrow would negate that pattern and confirm the break of the downtrend line. So we wait to see what tomorrow brings us.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 4:14:17 PM

How did you humans do that?

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 4:10:31 PM

Good gravy! ... NYSE a/d finished 1,685:1,385

NASDAQ a/d finished 1,685:1,191

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 4:05:38 PM

VLO goes out at $34.47 +7.24% ... what ... $0.14 bettern than 19.1%. That's a start.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 4:03:24 PM

Volume 173.3M

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 4:03:03 PM

SPY $129.03 +0.52% ... final 15 to go.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 4:02:29 PM

SPX ... add some noise with 5-point (you see the bullish traingle in 10-point). Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 4:00:34 PM

Cause if we get the break higher ... watch out

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:59:28 PM

Great observation Keene! Will post in this evening's wrap. (03:41:20). Good test tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:58:06 PM

Session high has been $34.60

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:57:44 PM

VLO to the close $34.41 +7.06% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:55:57 PM

You NDX/QQQQ traders ... How is your "heavyweight" looking?

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:55:33 PM

QQQQ short interest as of 07/15/08 Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:54:44 PM

SPY short interest as of 07/15/08 Link ... no overly heavy in my opinion.

SPY volume at this point of session about 171.8M

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:52:49 PM

Will commodity price pressure that have been impacting earnings negatively shift for a more positive result in Q3. Revenues have sure been strong.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:52:01 PM

RB -17.82% 20DyNet% ... will investor/consumer psychology improve in weeks ahead?

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:50:49 PM

USO $95.48 -0.12% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:48:36 PM

SPX 1,288.71 +0.29% ... still "in the zone."

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:46:48 PM

What are those SPX option chains looking like? See recent MM posting a couple days ago.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:42:13 PM

VIX and SPX "in sinc" within WKLY

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:41:26 PM

SPX 1,287.54 +0.20% ....

Keene Little : 8/6/2008 3:41:20 PM

Into the last half hour and signs of weakening in the rally. It's the close that counts and if the DOW and SPX leave a doji today it will be the 2nd candle of a potential 3-candle reversal pattern known as the evening star. The 3rd candle (tomorrow) would have to be a down day to confirm the reversal. It could be an especially strong signal since the various indices are at resistance. But bears need to be careful and not jump ahead of yourself until the market shows confirmation.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:40:45 PM

VIX.X alert! 20.13 -4.77% ... below WKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:36:19 PM

I'd better get started on the Market Wrap.

Have had some outages with Comcast today.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:35:07 PM

OK ... now you're THINKING.

Remember the RUT.X and DOWNSIDE break for BEARISH triangle (remember shape of bullish % then), but then the ramp back higher.

Now you know how to "leg in" with a position with partial first. Can always add.

What IF SPX now reverses LOWER?

Iran on the menue still. FRE and FNM not out of the woods.

Will OIL prices continue to retreat?

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:30:54 PM

What do you see in SPX heavyweights?

Any sign of "basket buying" on technical breakout? Sell-side computers just shutting down?

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:28:56 PM

NVDA $11.48 +2.59% ... (see RIO, PBR and BOOM?)

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:28:26 PM

RIO $26.80 +2.44% ... (see PBR and BOOM?)

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:28:02 PM

PBR $52.34 +4.22% ... (see BOOM?)

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:27:30 PM

YUM $37.50 -1.49% .... Rockies scored 7 runs last night. 4 tacos for $1 today may be weighing on stock. (wink)

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:26:46 PM

FFIV $31.02 +3.15% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:26:33 PM

YRCW $18.50 +1.64% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:26:19 PM

WB $18.45 -3.25% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:26:08 PM

VLO $34.39 +7.00% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:25:51 PM

BOOM $29.19 +3.60% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:25:10 PM

BIG change from this morning !

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:24:43 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,692:1,171

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:24:30 PM

NYSE a/d 1,655:1,385

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:11:14 PM

Long time MM subscribers can probably envision that there are a bunch of shorts with stops just above the 07/02/08 relative high.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:10:09 PM

Good gravy! ... just looking at SSO 60-minute interval chart. Don't recall having seen that 2.6 million share from 07/22/08 opening hour. ($58.40 to $59.37).

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:05:48 PM

SPX Heavyweights ... 08/01/08 sort order still. SPX triggers "bullish traingle" with 03:00 PM EDT benchmark. Link

Keene Little : 8/6/2008 3:02:22 PM

The RUT is testing its July 23rd high near 726 and if it can't continue higher it will leave a large bearish divergence.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 3:00:05 PM

Oooo.... good idea.

Keene Little : 8/6/2008 2:59:27 PM

Techs are strong today and NDX has now rallied up to the top of a parallel up-channel for price action since the July 15th low. It blew out the top of its rising wedge so that's clearly not the correct pattern. However, two equal legs up from the July low is just shy of 1900, which has been tagged. The combination of that projection, the top of a flag pattern (dotted line on the updated daily chart) and the 50-dma at 1893.40(need to see if it can hold it on a closing basis) could conspire against the bulls for any higher today. At least it's a reason to pull up stops if long. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 2:58:53 PM

SSO $62.19 +1.30% .... Daily R1 at $62.29. WKLY R1 $61.76.

Daily Pivot $60.71 ... pretty much marked the morning low.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 2:56:06 PM

Can almost envision Jimmy C's "Mad Money" this evening.

I'll keep composure in Market Wrap. (wink)

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 2:54:58 PM

Bullish Triangle triggered in S&P 500 (SPX) Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 2:52:40 PM

Alert! Alert! Alert! ... SPX 1,290 +0.40% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 2:51:38 PM

WNR ... day trader's 5-minute interval. With the BLUE retracement range as mentioned. Then QCharts' WKLY and Daily Pivot retracement levels turned on. Link

Keene Little : 8/6/2008 2:47:56 PM

SPX is working its way closer now to potential resistance at 1291, a little more than 2 points away (should take the rest of the day at this rate, wink).

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 2:44:06 PM

02:30 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 2:40:06 PM

Oh ... I also hold bullish in TSO, but Way, way, way out the money August Call.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 2:33:27 PM

I should disclose that I now own bullish positions in VLO and WNR.

BULK of refiner trade is VLO, smaller in WNR.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 2:30:54 PM

"in sinc" now.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 2:30:44 PM

"come together"

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 2:30:34 PM

VLO +6.12%

WNR +6.13% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 2:28:26 PM

Heck, even intra-day you know where it's been.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 2:27:59 PM

WNR $7.24 +5.69% ... I did pick up a small position at $7.35. Just seeing it filled in account. Don't go overboard in refiners, but if you like for a short-term trade, this would be the area intra-day.

You should have a feel for what "needs to happen" going forward.

Keene Little : 8/6/2008 2:24:48 PM

I'm impressed--the market is still holding up. It's not showing the kind of strength I'd like to see to recommend being long (surprises will be to the downside) but we've seen enough "stealth" rallies to know fighting a rallying market is a quick way to the poor house.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 2:24:21 PM

If I see $0.80 I'll STRONGLY suggest we take it.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 2:23:03 PM

Don't know about you, but I was sure ready for a "gap down and close out" on the PMJ-TI this morning.

PBR $52.01 +3.54% ... PMT-TI $0.15 x $0.15

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 2:20:07 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,467/1,320

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 2:19:55 PM

NYSE a/d 1,418:1,589

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 2:19:41 PM

Missed 02:00 internals ... will get them for 02:30. Sorry.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 2:17:59 PM

Oooo, very good info ... Ivey Purchasing Managers Index table Link

Just north of United States. More energy/mineral based economy though.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 2:16:20 PM


Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 2:16:10 PM

Euro CurrencyShares (FXE) $154.30 -0.25% ... OK ... makes sense now.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 2:15:37 PM

German Factory Orders (m/m) -2.9%. Consensus was +0.4%.

Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 2:14:17 PM

There it is ..

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 2:13:32 PM

European Markets Link ... finished mostly higher.

Was an economic report out of Germany that was very weak.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 2:09:57 PM

Hong Kong Braces for Cyclone, Suspends Market Trading ... Bloomberg Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 2:08:39 PM

Didn't know that!

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 2:08:32 PM

Asian Markets ... Link ... finished mostly higher.

Karachi hit.

Hong Kong closed for cyclone.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:59:35 PM


Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:58:38 PM

Time Warner (TWX) $14.80 -0.47% ... Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:56:21 PM

Sprint Nextel (S) $7.66 -10.40% ... Earnings Press Release Link

See Most Actives

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:54:28 PM

F5 Networks (FFIV) $30.66 +1.96% ... FLK-JF $3.30 x $3.40 from 07/25/08 entry.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:53:19 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $23.86 +5.38% ... Earnings Press Release (late yesterday) Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:50:31 PM

AT&T (T) $30.82 -0.74% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:49:58 PM

Qwest Communications (Q) $3.50 -2.50% ... Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:48:31 PM

S&P Retail Index (RLX.X) 364.07 -1.42% ... (see yesterday's ISM services).

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:47:51 PM

Ralph Lauren Polo (RL) $65.15 +5.93% ... Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:45:43 PM

Lowes Co. (LOW) $21.17 -1.30% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:44:51 PM

Home Depot (HD) $24.79 -0.40% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:44:32 PM

Lumber Liquidators (LL) $15.02 +5.40% ... Earnings Press Release Link ... discount flooring.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:42:15 PM

Lamar Advertising (LAMR) $36.74 -6.98% ... Earnings Press Release Link ... decent stock for pulse on ad spending.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:39:36 PM

Holly Corp. (HOC) $30.76 +8.04% ... "refiner" Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:35:04 PM

WB $18.41 -3.41% ... at this morning's open, WB was #63 weighted at 0.37% of total.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:34:14 PM

DVN ... at this morning's open DVN was #64 weighted at 0.35% of total.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:32:49 PM

SSO $61.57 +0.29% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:32:36 PM

Devon Energy $91.68 +3.12% ... Earnings Press Release Link

Used to show up at lower end of your SPX "heavyweights," but slipped lower out of view in recent weeks.

"Lift from the bottom" today? Not a bad thing.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:30:19 PM

Most Actives ... SPY $128.51 +0.11%, CSCO $23.97 +5.82%, QQQQ $46.38 +0.97%, S $7.70 -9.94%, MSFT $26.76 +2.09%, WB $18.40 -3.46%, C $20.01 +0.45%, ABK $5.24 +10.78%, ONNN $10.03 +6.36%, INTC $22.78 -1.04%

Jane Fox : 8/6/2008 1:29:25 PM

Only the NDX and the DOW futures have been able to break their overnight highs so far. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:24:33 PM

DJUSHB 285.05 +1.33% ... only reason to be bullish in my opinion is what we've seen in CME housing futures.

Don't forget though ... August roll is nearing.

Will monitor it though and see if shorts roll again, or they sense a bottom.

Jane Fox : 8/6/2008 1:24:32 PM

I agree with Keene's comment that today feels like a lack of sellers as opposed to buyers stepping up to the plate like they did yesterday. It is also a day of digestion; the bulls need to digest the gorging they did yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:22:34 PM

My MBA Purchases 12-Week Average fell to 343.2 from prior week's 347.0.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:19:13 PM

Coupon was 4.000%

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:08:38 PM

10-year Yield ($TNX.X) up 5.1 bp at 4.058% ... has seen trade at WKLY R1.

some cash freeing up.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:07:11 PM

10-year note auction results posted

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:05:13 PM

VLO vs. TSO Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:04:41 PM

VLO vs. WNR Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:03:10 PM

Can play "follow the leaders" with stocks too.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:02:32 PM

WNR's WKLY Pivots ... $6.75, $7.13, Piv= $7.86, $8.25, $8.98

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:01:23 PM

Maybe check OI at $7.50 strike.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 1:00:20 PM

WNR's 06/03/08 high $17.23 and recent low $6.47.

19.1% at $8.52, 38.2% at $10.58.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 12:59:09 PM

Maybe check out WNR a "worst of breed," but still can move short-term.

Same type of retracement work as we did with VLO

Keene Little : 8/6/2008 12:57:00 PM

Today's price action looks more like a lack of selling rather than any buying enthusiasm. It's neither bullish nor bearish here (except for continued bearish divergence at the new high) so both sides need to exercise a little more caution than usual.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 12:51:14 PM

VLO $34.32 +6.78% ... we know where we are here RELATIVE to range of "crack spread" retracement.

Have to "eyeball" a stop for RISK management.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 12:48:06 PM

Besides ... that's my job description. Do the work, teach and try and guide you.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 12:42:20 PM

IF VLO were to "blow off" to $39.50 anytime soon, DUMP it for a very nice gain.

VLO 50-day SMA at $39.61.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 12:40:33 PM

Swing trade call establish stop alert! ... for the Valero Energy VLO Sep $35 Call (VLO-IT) at $33.00 in the underlying.

VLO $34.27 +6.62% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 12:39:14 PM

OK .. a lot more work goes into trading refiners than you thought. Don't let it discourage you.

Even if you can't follow, you're understanding is better than most.

Now simply do this ...

With an understanding of today's EIA report and where inventory of oil and unleaded is at, along with refinery run and other derivatives of oil ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 12:36:26 PM

MBA's Weekly Application Surve Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 12:34:03 PM

Say mid-point $37.50?

IF crack spread stays here.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 12:32:50 PM

Sep Unleaded/Oil futures prices, my tabulated crack spread and VLO's stock price benchmarks Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 12:31:37 PM

Now hold on ... data coming.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 12:26:38 PM

VLO $34.17 +6.31% ... session high has been $34.60.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 12:26:05 PM

Most recent intra-day Sep "crack spread" tabulation would equate to more recent VLO "benchmark" price of about $34.76

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 12:23:43 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Internals at a/d improve a smidge.

Jane Fox : 8/6/2008 12:21:02 PM

Crude has hit a low of $117.11 so far today. That is a 20.4% drop from July 11th's all time high at $147.27 to today's low.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 12:14:56 PM

Euro CurrencyShares (FXE) $154.30 -0.25% ... probes its 150-day SMA. See 6/12/07 and 08/16/07 bar chart.

Look for SIMILARITY to past, or DIVERGENCE to past.

Jane Fox : 8/6/2008 12:12:07 PM

My goodness look at the improvement in the internals. Vix making new daily lows, AD volume new daily highs and the AD ratio is also making new daily highs. TRIN is 0.78

Only fly in the bull's ointment is the AD volume and line are still under 0. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 12:09:30 PM

VLO $34.46 +7.21% ... takes a look

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 12:06:35 PM

VLO's WKLY Pivot Levels ... Piv= $32.99, $33.82, $34.73

Keene Little : 8/6/2008 12:06:03 PM

After dropping below its 200-dma back in March 2006 the US dollar found it to be resistance on subsequent bounces in October 2006 and January 2007. It has been well under its 200-dma since that time until today--it has now rallied up to it (74.22) so we've got an important test underway.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 12:05:54 PM

VLO $34.27 +6.62% ... nestled under you 19.1%

Keene Little : 8/6/2008 12:00:45 PM

If the bulls manage to drive it higher today then the next test for SPX would be the July 31st high near 1285 and then the July 23rd high at 1291 (the top of a potential ascending triangle).

Keene Little : 8/6/2008 11:57:57 AM

SPX got a strong bounce back up for another test of its downtrend line from May 19th but so far has failed to hold it (punched slightly above it at 1282.30 now). The retest of yesterday's high has so far left a bearish divergence on the shorter-term charts so a double-top failure could have SPX dropping to a downside Fib projection near 1271 if the rally doesn't hold. That would also be close to a 38% retracement of the rally from Monday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 11:56:15 AM

CL and RB futures ... at 11:18 AM EDT screen capture Link

Same thing shown with UGA and USO, but real world here.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 11:47:25 AM

Traders can place other "refiners" in VLO spot, but EDUCATIONAL on trading the refiners.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 11:46:28 AM

UGA /USO and VLO montage Daily intervals with retracement benchmarked Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 11:35:26 AM

QCharts users ... you can create your own RS chart with UGA and USO by entering symol as follows

uga /uso


Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 11:33:23 AM

VLO +5.00%

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 11:33:12 AM

UGA $54.74 +0.81% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 11:32:32 AM

USO 94.60 -1.03% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 11:32:12 AM

USO Alert!

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 11:31:59 AM

RUT.X's NH.NL yesterday was 28:24.

5-day NH/NL 43.3% and 10-day 46.1%

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 11:31:03 AM

Good gravy! Another triangle forming in the RUT.X! At TREND!

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 11:29:20 AM

I remember it too! Maybe you do to? TWM and UWM MM profiles.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 11:27:48 AM

RUT.X 4-point box Link ... See the "triangle" back in mid-July. Broke to DOWNSIDE, then ramped back higher.

Keene will remember that ramp.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 11:26:11 AM

Hey! Remember that "pattern" in the RUT.X I showed a couple of weeks ago and "Chart of the Week?" All over it here with UGA:USO.

Will also mention in this evening's Market Wrap with SPX/SPY

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 11:24:42 AM

UGA:USO $0.50 box Link

$0.40 Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 11:22:21 AM

What "should happen" today is short covering kick in on refiners, and should last through day. Once they start, usually continue to close.

The TROUBLE of investment bulls in the refiners has been the renewed deterioration of the "crack spread"

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 11:21:13 AM

TSO +9.27%

VLO +4.76%

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 11:20:36 AM

USO 95.69 +0.10%

UGA 54.74 +0.81% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 11:18:08 AM

DXY 74.14 +0.35% .... comes back to test QCharts' WKLY R2. See MONTHLY R2 up at 74.90? Now look at past DAILY interval charts I've shown. That the BIG test for longer-term DXY strength. 11/26/07 relative low close.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 11:14:54 AM

SSO $61.01 -0.61% ... where did us BULLS "leg out" of partial yesterday? Still LONG partial.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 11:14:00 AM

YUM and YRCW look GREAT in up market yesterday, -1.57% and -1.75% today in marginal down market.

Hint: PROFIT taking.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 11:12:54 AM

BOOM $27.57 +1.32% ... looks TERRIBLE in up market yesterday (trades 52-week low), "good today?"

Hint: Short covering ....

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 11:11:36 AM

I'm not sure WHAT impact the lifting of the "no NAKED short rule" will have, but it isn't until AFTER August expire. It could be extended further, but deal with what we currently "know."

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 11:10:15 AM

Short/long a partial .... "no big deal"

Short/long a FULL position all at once ... "BIG deal" and implications if it MOVES AGAINST the account.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 11:08:41 AM

Wachovia (WB) $18.14 -4.82% ... gives back about 1/2 of yesterday's gain.

Yeh... +8% "no big deal" ... -4.72% ... "less of a deal"

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 11:07:37 AM

Folks ... these banks are trading more like Internet stocks than they are banks.

Here's what I've started to do in my mind.

+8.00% now becomes more like +0.80% and -8.00% now becomes more like -0.80%. A move like +2.00% becoming +0.20% and -2.00% more fractional -0.20%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 11:03:45 AM

I should note that I have been pricing out some near-out-the-money covered calls for YUM and YRCW yesterday and today for September expire, but base on (one) 1 call each for disciplines $10K account, not enough price at this point (<$1.00). Multiple contract subscribers may be a different story.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 10:58:36 AM

My "Energy Watch List" Link

While I teach, and primarlily use OIL/GASOLINE futures for "crack spread" observation, will do for now. 5-dayNet% even, 20-dayNet% would be BEARISH for refiner at time of screen capture. See USO +0.94% vs. UGA +1.84% as to how it could improve.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 10:48:25 AM

One (1) of the VLO-IT ... go $3.55

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 10:47:51 AM

Swing trade call alert! for the Valero Energy Sep $32.50 Calls (VLO-IT) at the offer of $3.50.

Tab Gilles : 8/6/2008 10:47:37 AM

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $46.65 +$1.73 (3.19%) Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 10:46:16 AM

$32.50 calls?

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 10:46:05 AM

VLO $33.79 +4.97% ... check.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 10:45:52 AM

TSO $16.91 +8.88% ... check.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 10:44:39 AM

OK ... for SPY I can already see that $129.03-ish will be the "key resistance" level for mid-June test.

If OVERLY LEVERAGED from the long side, back it off here and hold partials. Can ALWAYS get back on with PRICE technical strength.

Tab Gilles : 8/6/2008 10:44:08 AM

Cisco(CSCO) $23.76 +$1.12 (4.94%)

Currently testin its 50-ma and 50% June/July retracement @ $24. Link

A few out of the money calls that are moving nicely. Jan '09 $25 CYQ-AE $1.60 +$0.44 (34%); Jan '10 $25 WCY-AE $3.50 +$0.52 (17.25%); Jan '10 $30 WCY-AF $1.87 +$0.30 (19.2%)

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 10:42:10 AM

EIA: Refinery Capacity Utilization slipped to 87.0% from 87.2% week ago.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 10:41:20 AM

EIA: US Distillate Stockpiles +2.841M barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 10:40:41 AM

Refiners could bid.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 10:40:33 AM

EIA: US Total Gasoline Stockpiles -4.344M barrels

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 10:39:56 AM

EIA: US Crude Oil Stockpiles +1.614M barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 10:39:00 AM

UGA $55.30 +1.84% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 10:38:50 AM

USO $96.52 +0.97% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 10:38:14 AM

UGA $55.30

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 10:38:00 AM

USO $96.90

Keene Little : 8/6/2008 10:35:11 AM

Trannies -1.5%, semis -1.4%, banks -3.7%, brokers -2.2% and home builders -3.0%. With the negative sentiment in those today I would not be looking to buy the dip. At least not yet.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 10:35:03 AM

Where's James!

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 10:34:41 AM

Checking 06/19/08 MM Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 10:33:25 AM

06/18/08 Internals Link ... day of some PRICE deterioration for SPX/SPY

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 10:31:59 AM

06/17/08 Internals Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 10:31:01 AM

06/16/08 Internals Link ... Note 5-day and 10-day NH/NL

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 10:29:45 AM

Would begin to do some work on 06/16 through 06/19. See it with SPY? That's our pattern of BEARISHness

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 10:27:46 AM

06/13/08 Closing Internals ... with DXY at very same levels. Noting NH/NL at both exchanges, as well as PRICE of various equity, oil, gold, crb and Treasury yields.

U.S. Market Watch from 06/13/08 Link

Keene Little : 8/6/2008 10:27:21 AM

NDX continues to chop up and down inside a rising wedge, the top of which is currently near 1880. As shown on its daily chart we could see a little more work to the upside (pink) or a turn back down at any time and a selloff into Aug/Sept (dark red). The rising wedge is a bearish continuation pattern and for me there's just no other way to view it--it will break down from this: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 10:24:35 AM

Sure don't see "stocks erupt" in the internals.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 10:24:06 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2008 10:23:26 AM

Geesh do you think the SPX has found resistance? Link

Keene Little : 8/6/2008 10:22:31 AM

SPX stopped its rally yesterday at its downtrend line from May 19th and gold stopped its decline yesterday at its uptrend line from May 1st. Both levels are important for the continuation of their trends from May. This morning gold has bounced off its uptrend line, the bottom of a potential large sideways triangle which means there remains the possibility we'll see a rally into September to get back up to the top of its triangle (green on the GLD daily chart: Link

But if gold bounces and then turns back down and breaks yesterday's low we'll have a strong indication at that point that GLD is headed for $79-80 ($800 for gold). So if you're bullish gold this is a good buying opportunity. If you want to play the short side on gold wait for a break of yesterday's low to confirm the bearish price pattern (dark red).

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 10:15:11 AM

If bulk of market participants believe what Fed and Mr. Pauson have been saying, equities could erupt.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 10:14:17 AM

US Dollar Index (DXY) alert! 74.18 +0.39% ... breaks above MONTHLY R1.

Keene Little : 8/6/2008 10:12:13 AM

After a small drop out of the gate we've got a little bounce attempt but so far it's looking like just a bounce. It looks like we should get a further drop.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2008 10:05:53 AM

Canada's Ivey Purchasing Managers Index at 65.5 in July

Jane Fox : 8/6/2008 10:01:22 AM

This is not going to be an easy day to decipher. AD volume continues to make new daily lows but the VIX is printing mid range and not supporting the bearishness. oh and the AD ratio is climbing.

Jane Fox : 8/6/2008 9:53:30 AM

AD line is a bearish -900 and AD volume is making new daily lows. VIx, however, is not supporting the bearishness.

Tab Gilles : 8/6/2008 9:47:52 AM

Celgene (CELG) $76.76 +$0.70 (0.96%)

The biotech sector is on fire, Celgene recently reported stellar earnings and guided higher for 2009. In Q2, Revlimid sales surged 80% to $325.8 million. The drug is approved as a treatment for multiple myeloma, a bone marrow cancer. Thomson Financial expect 2008 profit of $1.50 per share on revenue of $2.2 billion and estimates call for $2.60 in 2009. Link Link

The stock has had a nice run YTD, up anout 70%. The PnF chart has a Price Objective of $102. The stock could see an overbought retracement nearterm, however on a valuation basis it is not too expensive. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/6/2008 9:23:05 AM

I'm taking a vacation day today. My 3:44:53 post yesterday afternoon explained my take on what might happen today. I noted that I'd been mentioning the possible rising wedge in which the OEX has been climbing. Such wedges have bearish connotations, but they're warning of some underlying problems with strength and not promising that they'll eventually break to the downside. Because yesterday's sharp rise brought the OEX near the top of that wedge and because of typical patterns after a large-range day as well as recent actions, I urged traders to consider the possibility that the OEX might either pop up to the top of that wedge and then pull back in a consolidation day or even that the strong gains could be reversed. I asked bears to remember that even if such a reversal occurred and the OEX were to reverse lower and break through the wedge's support, it might then just broaden the wedge into a regular old rising price or regression channel. Here's the wedge: Link The short-term look suggests potentially strong support near 590.70-591.60, so that's the first place to watch for support today, if the first move is to the downside. If it's to the upside, short-term charts suggest potentially strong resistance from about 597.25-600.

Keene Little : 8/6/2008 9:13:32 AM

It looks like we'll have a slightly negative start to the trading day with equity futures down during overnight trading. If the market exhausted the buying pressure yesterday afternoon (from short covering and otherwise) then we'll see selling pick up after the open. Yesterday's high will become an important high for the bulls to conquer following a pullback today (and for the bears to defend).

Jane Fox : 8/6/2008 9:04:31 AM

Crude didn't do much overnight and is now trading in the $118-$119 area. Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2008 8:59:51 AM

Here are the overnight charts. Although it looks like you have lower lows and highs I read this more as a consolidation at previous day highs meaning we could very well have a bullish open. More than likely though we will have a neutral open. Link

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