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Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2008 1:02:07 AM

YM +18 at 11,540

Keene Little : 8/13/2008 11:52:00 PM

Thursday's pivot table: Link

Depending on which index or sector I look at I could argue that a top is already in for the bounce off the July 15th low. A drop back below Wednesday's low would be bearish and would confirm that we've seen the top and get ready for a hard decline over the next two months.

But the potential remains for another push higher and many are expecting SPX to make it back up to 1320 for a 50% retracement of the May-July decline. If the rally takes us into Monday I see the possibility for SPX to rally to about 1330 before rolling back over. It would be just like this market to get SPX up through the level most are expecting a failure so as to get more shorts out and suck in a few more bulls. Then close the door and cut the elevator cable.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 11:26:37 PM

CME's May'08 (expired), Aug'08 (about to expire), Nov'08 and Feb'09 Regional Housing Futures table I track Link

Do you see the more BEARISH expiration in the May'08 as it was set to expire end of that month? Think of it as if BULLS bought a year ago, and expiration approached.

Now look at Aug'08. Think both sides. If overly long, shouldn't there be selling (sell to close)? If overly short, and expiration approaching, shouldn't there be buying (buy to close)?

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 11:09:25 PM

Interesting ... CME Aug'08 roll holding up. Maybe a little too short.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 11:02:53 PM

MBA Notes:

30-year fixed not much different year-over-year.

Ah... but you can see the ARM is. About 5.75% and now 7.15.

Check out the Refinance Index measures. Seems to INCREASE whenever rates came down, almost marking inflection lows, or bottoms. MARKETS seem to know.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:57:40 PM

MBA Weekly Application Survey (table) report dates 06/20/07 to 01/30/08. About a year ago. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:51:56 PM

MBA Weekly Application Survey (Table) that I track at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:35:32 PM

These are not major changes, but slight changes.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:31:40 PM

Government Purchase Index (largely FHA) rose 2.9%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:32:45 PM

Purchases Index was unchanged

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:27:49 PM

Correction Alert! ... To MBA link in Wednesday's MM.

Correction alert! To Wednesday evening's Market Wrap.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:26:10 PM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey Link

OI Technical Staff : 8/13/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 7:07:36 PM

USO $0.50 box to match futures Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 7:05:16 PM

USO this week's "Chart of the week" Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 6:20:18 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 5:47:07 PM

Valero Energy (VLO) $34.79 +2.98% ... Quick notes

Sep unlead/oil crack tabulation 25.27.

Oct unlead/oil crack tabulation 24.66.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 5:36:27 PM

Should note that Jimmy C called a "bottom" in nat gas today.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 5:28:19 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 5:24:37 PM

Getting closing alerts on BNPQY and DSECY (see no "naked short" rule) list.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 4:59:36 PM

Major World Indexes, Currencies, USO, GLD, HUI.X, OIX.X and XLF at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 4:48:00 PM

Good gravy! OIX.X 810.69 +3.01% ... up 0.06% since last Wednesday's wrap.

Tab Gilles : 8/13/2008 4:47:50 PM

Weekly EIA Report: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 4:45:07 PM

Crocs (CROX) $4.15 -4.15% ... ticks $4.58 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 4:43:53 PM

Heelys (HLYS) $4.89 +0.82% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 4:43:16 PM

DJ- Sketchers makes offer to buy Heelys for $142.8 million cash

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 4:39:56 PM

DXY's 04:00 tick was 76.242

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 4:38:41 PM

RUT.X +3.00% since Wednesday's wrap.

+8.4% for Q3.

Now think about the dollar as I've taught you.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 4:37:11 PM

Where's the RISK?

Is the RISK that oil prices will crater?

Or is it JOBS and MORTGAGES?

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 4:35:00 PM

Power grid shuts down ... light bulbs come on!

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 4:33:15 PM

Orrrrrr ... SSO call and WB put?

Now you're cook'n.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 4:31:32 PM

Good place for a strangle!

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 4:28:22 PM

VIX.X 1-point box Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 4:28:14 PM

Email Question: ... Anyone care to comment on the large % moves in the market yet the VIX quite tame? Maybe a crash coming with extreme complacency?

Jeff's Reply: I think bulk has to do with "Max Pain" tabulations. See many of my postings today.

Extreme complacency? Hmmm maybe 16.00, but 21.55?

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 4:11:46 PM

Good gravy ... SPX 1,285.83 -0.29% ... down 0.26% since last Wednesday's Market Wrap.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 4:04:26 PM

SPY $128.78 ... 13-minutes to close.

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 4:02:39 PM

Looks as if we'll see the small-bodied candle at support version for the OEX's candle today, and, maybe even a doji if the move up goes far enough. Do not discount the possibility of a bounce or an immediate rollover tomorrow. I don't like at all the pattern in which the OEX moved around rather violently the last hour, and I've been taught that when resistance is broken and the action immediately grows more volatile, to distrust that break.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 4:01:59 PM

Bullish fun to the close?

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 4:01:44 PM

DIA $115.64 -0.83% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 4:01:00 PM

YM 11,540

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 3:57:22 PM

If you're in bear call credit spreads for August, especially if in one threatened earlier this week, you might take a look at it this afternoon and see if you can exit for a price that feels comfortable for you. I don't always have the same trades that the CPTI traders do, so I'm not familiar with what's open right now. If you've got too much risk on the table and are worried about the bounce possibilities tomorrow, lowering risk doesn't have to be an all-or-nothing endeavor. You could take off part of a position, for example. Check with your broker, too, for other ideas. Mine has great ideas.

Keene Little : 8/13/2008 3:55:37 PM

The RUT's pattern still has me thinking this afternoon's pullback will be followed by a push higher to a new high above Monday's. We've got a fractured market and that's another sign of an unhealthy market. It's a great time to lighten up on your longer term long positions and get ready to batten down the hatches. The next leg down is going to be a doozy.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 3:54:06 PM

YM 11,497

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 3:52:29 PM

The morning was great fun for those who trade trends but the afternoon hasn't been much fun for anyone, I don't imagine.

Keene Little : 8/13/2008 3:52:47 PM

Brokers (XBD), transports and home builders also look like their bounces have ended. If today's lows for the DOW and SPX are also taken out then their bounces will have ended at Monday's highs as well.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 3:51:58 PM

If "long the day's low" in YM, I'd get flat.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 3:51:31 PM

DIA $115.29 -1.09% ...

If "short the day's high" in YM, I'd get flat YM 11,502.

Keene Little : 8/13/2008 3:50:48 PM

If we do see the blue chips make new highs into Friday I have a feeling they'll be doing it without the banks. BIX looks like its bounce pattern may have ended and has started to roll over for its next leg down. In fact it pattern calls for a new low below today's before it should be ready to bounce and correct the decline from Monday. That of course would tell us to be cautious about expectations for a broader market rally. We're close now to downside surprises coming.

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 3:46:47 PM

It's time to be thinking about your end-of-day decisions. Here's the OEX's daily chart with some thoughts: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 3:43:59 PM

SSO $61.76

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 3:43:44 PM

SPY $128.86

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 3:43:09 PM

VIX.X 21.49 +1.41% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 3:42:17 PM

Genentech rejects Roche's $43.7 billion bid

AP Story Link

DNA $98.47 +0.63% ...

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 3:41:16 PM

If the OEX breaks decisively through that former descending trendline off Monday's high, there's the possibility that selling could accelerate, but do watch for potential support now near 591.15-592.43.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 3:37:29 PM

DIA $115.43 -0.97% .... no "doji" ... I'm not a candle-sticker.


Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 3:36:22 PM

QQQQ $47.74 -0.12% ... threatens a "doji" on daily.

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 3:36:20 PM

Barring a quick OEX bounce back above 594.50, begin to factor in possible vulnerability down to 591.20-592.44. First, watch for potential support to kick in now, as the OEX tests that former declining trendline that it broke through earlier.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 3:35:31 PM

SPY $128.78 -0.45% ... threatens a "doji" on daily.

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 3:34:17 PM

The OEX barely squeaked by with that close above the 15-minute 9-ema. Nevertheless some chart setups still present the possibility of a decline back to retest the declining trendline off Monday's high that the OEX broke through this afternoon just before beginning that last push. It's not a given, but bulls should factor in the possibility that the OEX could drop back to test it, now at about 593. The OEX is 594.63 as I type. Bears should factor in the possibility that the OEX might not drop to test it! Smile.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 3:32:59 PM

SPY $129.15 -0.16% ... trying to hold QRTRLY 38.2%. Since closing above on Friday, hasn't seen a close below.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 3:30:59 PM

XOM +1.59%, IBM +0.84%, CVX +2.72% and AAPL +1.34%

GE -1.44%, MSFT -0.67%, PG -0.88%, JNJ -0.61%, T -0.97% and BAC -5.75%

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 3:30:15 PM

The OEX's 15-minute 9-ema is now at 594.72. Those hoping to see gains want a 15-minute close above that, at least, as that presents the possibility that this is just a pullback to test that moving average. The final direction for the end of the day is not settled yet, I don't believe, with bulls and bears battling it out right here. Bulls also don't want to see this 30-minute close beneath 594.10. The 30-minute chart is also showing a possible reversal signal. OEX at 594.59 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 3:29:30 PM

SPX "top 33%" breadth +9 vs. -14

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 3:27:38 PM

DJ- US's Rice: Russia faces isolation if it doesn't heed Georgia truce

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 3:26:44 PM

DJ- Sarkozy: Russian President pledged to honor peace deal

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 3:26:27 PM

What releases are scheduled for foreign markets tonight and tomorrow morning? Those include Japan's important Tertiary Industry Average to be released at 7:50 tonight and Germany's Preliminary GDP to be released at 2:00 am ET tomorrow morning. Other important releases come later, with the ECB Bulletin at 4:00 am and the Eurozone's CPI and Flash GDP at 5:00 am. Those lead up the roster until our releases begin with the important CPI and Unemployment Claims tomorrow morning at 8:30 am ET.

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 3:23:10 PM

I would not be holding onto bearish trades whose stops were being hit in the hope that the markets will turn around again. They may, of course. You had plenty of times to set those stops when the OEX was consolidating near the low for a while, so those stops were set in a calmer and more reasoned environment. If your profit limit stops are being hit, don't be tempted to move them higher unless you're setting them contingent on some moving average or something that's moved or a trendline that's been rising, so that you need to readjust that way. If you've been taken out for a profit and the OEX turns over and rolls down again, as is always possible, oh, well. I don't mean to be dismissive, but it's far better to miss out on a chunk of possible profits than to let a profitable trade turn into a losing one.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 3:21:10 PM

To the close ...

NYSE a/d 1,435:1,669

NASDAQ a/d 1,587:1,271

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 3:20:19 PM

VXO.X 23.24 +1.04% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 3:20:01 PM

DIA -0.52% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 3:19:41 PM

OEX (unch)

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 3:19:05 PM

VLO $35.11 +3.93% ... presses the $35 strike.

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 3:18:20 PM

This is what I mean about tempering your expectations. The OEX burst above resistance that should have held under normal circumstances but immediately turns back and threatens to create reversal signals on some charts, including the 15-minute one. It's difficult to list potential support and resistance under conditions like these and not feel that you're misleading someone. However, it's not typically a good thing for such a burst higher on a bearish day to be met with a potential reversal signal and not what bulls want to see, but what might be happening is that the OEX is just setting up consolidation along the 15-minute 120-ema, the benchmark for bearish/bullish sides of the channel and the 10-minute's version that I mentioned in my 2:47:56 post. This was an important benchmark for the OEX through most of yesterday when it was finding support at that moving average, and as I mentioned in that 2:47:56 post, the test of it from the underside warranted the possibility that it could find resistance there now. We just have to wait and see. That benchmark is now at 596.30 on 10-minute closes with further resistance on the 10-minute chart at 597.68. I prefer watching the OEX on 7-, 15-, and 30-minute charts, but when it's moving fast, the 10-minute chart is sometimes more predictive. OEX at 596.12 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 3:14:39 PM

VIX.X 21.00 -0.80% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 3:14:13 PM

WB $15.21 -4.87% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 3:12:51 PM

SPY $129.21 -0.11% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 3:12:18 PM

XLF $20.76 -1.98% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 3:11:48 PM

Lehmna Bros. (LEH) $16.40 +1.17% ... reversing losses.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 3:11:21 PM

DJ Live!- Lehman in talks to sell mortgage assets to Blackrock ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 3:08:10 PM

I know at least one ES short from Friday that didn't assume anything this morning.

Good job! Stay disciplined. Keep things in check.

See 10:25:44 post.

Keene Little : 8/13/2008 3:05:10 PM

The SPX daily chart shows the same two scenarios shown on the 60-min chart although from a daily perspective it would be a break of the 1262 level that would confirm the bounce from July 15th is complete. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 3:04:47 PM

I still urge caution about your assumptions today.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 3:04:30 PM

SPX 1,293 ... key level for bears to defend near-term about to be tested at 1,295.

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 3:03:38 PM

No pullback yet in the OEX and it's charging up after breaking through that trendline off Monday's high. It's already above the 38.2% retracement. I've been saying since late morning that the decline that had been seen until then might be all there was, but I'm still among the people who are just tired of all this seesawing back and forth. It's, however, not so atypical of behavior inside a rising wedge pattern.

Keene Little : 8/13/2008 3:00:50 PM

SPX 1274 remains the key level for the bulls to defend for now. The pink wave count shows how price should play out for a rally to a new high. It's looking like it could press up to the 1230 area by Monday now if it's to make it back up to the top of the rising wedge pattern. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 2:58:31 PM

IWM, QQQQ, SPY and DIA ... daily interval montage you might still be following. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 2:56:12 PM

There's the possibility but not yet the probability that the OEX could stall here at least long enough for a pullback to retest the descending trendline off Monday's high, the trendline that it broke through during the previous 15-minute period. If so, those in bullish trades don't want to see the OEX sustain values below that trendline, now at about 593.80, as that runs the risk that this was just a stop-running move. Those with bullish hopes really don't want to see the test occur at all but would prefer that the OEX trend sideways near its current 595.44 level while the 15-minute 9-ema rises up beneath it. Bears want the OEX back beneath that 593.80 level, with sustained values beneath it. If the OEX does pull back, bears do need to watch for potential support near 593.80 and then again at 592.59 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 2:54:49 PM

DIA -0.46% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 2:54:36 PM

SPY +0.01% ... inches green

Jane Fox : 8/13/2008 2:50:21 PM

SPX looks like it is ready for its next leg upward. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 2:48:42 PM

IWM $74.92 +0.82% ... takes out yesterday's high.

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 2:47:56 PM

A bigger bounce than bears wanted to see. There's potentially strong resistance for the oEX from about 596.30-597.66. This is derived from the 10-minute chart, with the OEX balancing precariously on the 10-minute 120-ema on 10-minute closes through all that long consolidation period yesterday before it broke down. We should assume potential resistance might be there today since it held so long as support yesterday, but presuming anything in this market environment is dangerous, isn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 2:47:13 PM

TRIN 0.95

TRINQ 0.94

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 2:46:56 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,588:1,222

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 2:46:42 PM

NYSE a/d 1,394:1,703

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 2:43:25 PM

Gett'n green on the screen. (US Market Watch)

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 2:41:12 PM

Thanks Rick! Corn, beans and wheat "limit up!"

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 2:40:54 PM

OEX bears would prefer that the OEX not get much above 593.80-594.25 and especially not above 594.70. If it does bounce, as it's beginning to do as I type, they want resistance on 30-minute closes at about 594.50 and then they want the OEX to roll over and sustain 30-minute closes beneath 592.80. OEX at 594.06 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 2:40:31 PM

"Resistance broken" ... serving some support today.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 2:39:56 PM

Don't forget donward trend #2 on on IWM.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 2:38:53 PM

Barry! Check out your IWM and QQQQ.

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 2:35:07 PM

I felt fairly confident about where the OEX was likely headed this morning, but since the time of my 11:54 post, the setups haven't been spectacular and that "anything goes" kind of setup began to appear. Now, unless the OEX just barrels through the 15-minute 9-ema, now at 592.85, there's the possibility this downturn could stop near here, with an even stronger possibility at next support at 591.83. The OEX is improving in outlook on a Keltner setup on the 15-minute chart, but that improvement could of course be short-lived. Just be aware of the possibility and temper your expectations for now.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 2:32:22 PM

SPY -0.49% and DIA -0.95%

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 2:31:59 PM

RUT +0.11%

NDX +0.03% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 2:31:43 PM

NDX +0.03% ... inches green.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 2:31:15 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 2:27:55 PM

Treasury's have whipped back around.

Keene Little : 8/13/2008 2:27:35 PM

If this afternoon's bounce is now followed by a move to a new low below today's then we'd have bearish confirmation that we've seen the high for the bounce off the July 15th low.

Keene Little : 8/13/2008 2:24:03 PM

This afternoon's bounce now looks like an impulsive move and that says we should get at least another leg up after a pullback. If you got long against 1274 as I had mentioned earlier you'll want to have your stop no lower than a new daily low in order to give this a little room to run higher. Once a pullback is finished (should get a 38%-62% retracement) and then makes a new high (assuming it will) you can raise your stop to just below the pullback low.

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 2:21:44 PM

The A/D line is not telling a whole lot. It's been bouncing while equity prices have, but it's facing potential trendline resistance at about -400 and potentially strong Keltner resistance at about -260. It's at -590 as I type. It still looks as if it has the potential to rise and test that resistance, but that's not a given, and it may be tugged down by equity prices rather than leading them, but if it does rise, be on the watch for rollover potential at the levels indicated above.

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 2:17:59 PM

We just wait it out. What makes the should-I waiting easier? Setting stops, both stop losses and profit limits. If you're in a trade, calculate where those stops should be, set them, and then let unfold what will unfold.

Jane Fox : 8/13/2008 2:17:12 PM

Here are your overnight charts. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 2:16:40 PM

"for those the bought the low ...." would raise stop in YM to 11,515

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 2:15:37 PM

INDU 11,551 -0.78% ... after probe of WKLY Pivot from underneath.

Jane Fox : 8/13/2008 2:15:18 PM

VIX is making new daily lows but the AD line and volume are still under 0 and the TRin is neutral. There is no clear direction.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 2:12:38 PM

Good gravy! This day has gone by fast.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 2:11:06 PM

OEX 594.44 -0.38% ... has reclaimes correlative WKLY Pivot/DailyS1

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 2:10:57 PM

If the OEX should turn down again, watch for potential support at 592.80-592.90 and particularly at 591.89. If the OEX breaks higher, it's got potential resistance just ahead, from about 596.15-596.56. OEX at 594.36 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 2:09:52 PM

VXO.X 23.90 +3.91% .... after kiss of DAILY R2 (23.68).

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 2:08:54 PM

The OEX did manage to close that 30-minute period just above the resistance at 594.38 and it's barely pierced the declining trendline off Monday's high, but the move isn't a convincing one yet. I still think the possibility of a downturn must be considered, even if it's not yet a given. I don't think the break above that resistance is a convincing one so far. OEX at 594.52 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 2:05:59 PM

Fed's Stern: making comments.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 2:02:01 PM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $47.66 -0.29%, SIRI $1.35 -1.45%, WB $15.36 -3.93%, NVDA $12.09 +9.21%, XLF $20.66 -2.45%, SPY $128.90 -0.34%, F $4.89 -5.78%, INTC $24.20 -1.30%, JPM $37.29 -1.66%, FNM $7.76 -3.24%

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 1:59:19 PM

The OEX is still testing, but with potential resistance at 594.35 on 30-minute closes holding so far into this 30-minute period. If there's a dip these last couple of minutes, even that at 592.87 might hold. There's still rollover potential here, but bears need to be aware that a burst up through about 595 would also be breaking above the top of the descending trendline off Monday's last high. It's still iffy here, judging what happens next.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:57:04 PM

Unleaded up to $2.96 and still climbing.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:53:29 PM

SPX 1,248 ... 1.25 point chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:52:41 PM

SPX 1,283 ... 2.5 point chart Link

Jane Fox : 8/13/2008 1:52:36 PM

Crude is up to $117.40 now and still climbing.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:51:52 PM

SPX 1,285 ... 5-point chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:49:32 PM

Must work from the Quarterly, to monthly, to weekly, to daily, to hourly, to minute to second.

Big picture down to where things are at the moment of execution.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:48:18 PM

Day trading much more than pressing the buy and sell button isn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:46:42 PM

WB $15.27 -4.56% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:46:15 PM

SSO $61.70 -0.88% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:45:45 PM

VIX.X 21.27 +0.47% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:45:02 PM

DIA $115.63 -0.80% ....

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:44:44 PM

SPY $128.87 -0.37% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:44:10 PM

RUT.X 746.33 +0.18% ... what's the probablility here of session low being in?

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 1:44:39 PM

We're in a prime stop-running time of day so be aware that what you're watching might be a test to see if a ramp up is met with selling. We don't yet know the outcome and knowing that it's likely a test doesn't give you an excuse to ignore bearish stops, because the test might result in big money deciding there are few sellers waiting and it's okay to send prices higher again.

Next potential resistance is at 594.35 on 30-minute closes. Note that VXO, the old VIX computed using OEX options, is dropping quickly but approaching a best-fit rising trendline off its low reached on Monday afternoon.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:43:12 PM

US Gasoline Fund (UGA) $54.91 +3.81% ... About $54.00 on 08/11/08 YUM exit.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:41:28 PM

YUM $36.91 -2.94% ... exited calls for +53.19% on 08/08/08 as YUM was trading $38.00.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:38:51 PM

Each second, minute, hour, day and week, month and quarter. The MARKET measures risk/reward.

Computes utilize the pivots.

Measuring many indicators in their programs to get the pulse of what MARKET PARTICIPANTS are doing.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:37:07 PM

SPY $128.60 -0.59% ... OK back to 70%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:36:29 PM

VIX.X alert! 21.42

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:35:56 PM

YM 11,519

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:34:33 PM

TRINQ 1.86

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:34:23 PM

TRIN 1.01

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:34:00 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,377:1,402

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:33:44 PM

NYSE a/d 1,167:1,910

Keene Little : 8/13/2008 1:32:39 PM

Now we test the bounce to see if it will be just a bounce or the start something bigger to the upside. Two equal legs up off today's low is at SPX 1283.20. If price stalls there and takes out the pullback low just past 1:00 PM, leaving a 3-wave bounce, then we'll have a good idea that we haven't seen the lows yet.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:31:46 PM

VXO's session high has been ... 24.59. WKLY R1 24.59!

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:31:05 PM

VXO.X 24.10 +4.78% ... better volatility measure for the big guns of the DIA and OEX.

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 1:31:33 PM

While there's the possibility that the day's low is going to hold as the low of the day, as I noted in my 11:54 post, the OEX is now approaching a zone with rollover potential. That zone begins with potential resistance at 592.45 on 15-minute closes and extends up to 592.98 on 30-minute ones, with further resistance above those. Bears just need to know where their stops should be and honor them because anything can and does happen in these markets, but those with bullish hopes need to be careful of rollover potential here, with the possibility that the OEX might roll down to retest the day's low or even drop toward 586-587.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:30:13 PM

YM 11,505 ... probes its DAILY S2 from underneath.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:29:12 PM

Dow Components All 30 weighting at Monday's open. Max Pains too! Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:24:52 PM

YM 11,482 with DIA $115.06 ....

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:23:35 PM

SPY $128.10 -0.96% .... DAILY S2 127.61. Session low has been $127.67.

Now a day trader needs to play the risk/reward.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:22:40 PM

VIX.X 21.88 +3.35% ... QCharts' DAILY R2 at 22.03.

Session high has been 22.11

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:19:56 PM

PowerShares Dorsey/Wright Assoc. Technical Leaders (PDP) $23.46 +0.17% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:17:59 PM

Sell the weakest, buy the strongest.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:17:42 PM

Now do it for 500 stocks!

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:17:21 PM

Program the computer to make the adjustment.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:17:02 PM

OK ... then 50% session low is in on SPY $128.03.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:16:08 PM

Great observation Jane!

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:15:26 PM

VIX.X 21.93 +3.58% .... Is above correlative WKLY/QRTRLY Pivots.

1.5 to 2 days until Op-Ex.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:12:07 PM

I should note: Very HELPFUL if not necessary to analyst SPX option montage too!

SPY just part of the Op-Ex.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:11:10 PM

SPX and INDU Heavyweights ... Sorted by SPX/SPY for Monday's open. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:07:53 PM

Refiners as good as the widening of the crack spread.

Jane Fox : 8/13/2008 1:07:15 PM

Well it seems the VIX is on board with the bears now but the TRIN at 0.87 is not. AD volume making new daily lows but AD ratio climbing. HMMM What to do?

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:07:04 PM

At least I agree with him based on my past commentary.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:06:45 PM

Excellent, excellent trader comment regarding VLO by CNBC guest analyst.

If not all refiners.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:04:01 PM

SPX Heavyweights (as of Monday's open) Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 1:00:02 PM

SPY $128.10 -0.94% ... odds are 70% that session low is in.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 12:58:48 PM

And ... with OP-EX this week, where the OI is at.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 12:57:50 PM

And ... what the "news" is and what, if any "heavyweight(s)" it is impacting.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 12:56:51 PM

Depends on what market/security you're trading. Where it is in the pivot levels. The a/d line.

Keene Little : 8/13/2008 12:55:39 PM

It's a tough call here as to whether or not we've seen the low for the day. SPX came within a point of the important 1274 level. The decline from Monday looks impulsive which means a possible trend change to the downside again. A break of the uptrend line from July 15th would confirm the trend change. In the meantime, as long as 1274 holds you can try a long play for a rally into Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 12:54:17 PM

Americas Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 12:53:26 PM

European Markets Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 12:52:55 PM

Asian Markets ... Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 12:51:55 PM

PTR $125.60 -2.15% ... only "energy" stock in my watch list in the red.

It's CHINA, its a REFINER/PRODUCER where gasoline prices "capped" by China's government.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 12:49:42 PM

Here's a Link for the no "naked short" ... click it, stick in browser favorites.

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 12:45:19 PM

So far, the OEX's 15-minute 9-ema has held as resistance during this 15-minute period. That moving average is now at 591.10 with the OEX at 590.69 as I type. I wouldn't rule out either the possibility of a drop to 586.50 or a climb to 592.75-593.75. If the OEX bounces up to test that next resistance, watch closely for rollover potential there.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 12:40:10 PM

I should note: If you are looking to initiate a new mortgage, GO WITH A 30-year FIXED, not the ARM.

See today's MBA survey.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 12:39:12 PM

I should note that NOBODY I know, or manage/advise money for hold, nor ever held ARSs

Tab Gilles : 8/13/2008 12:37:20 PM

Financials are getting hit hard with further downgrades, the Securities and Exchange Commission's rule against naked short positions in 19 banks extension ending yesterday- along with NYAG Cuomo's auction rate settlement previously w/Citi and UBS now entailing Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and JP Morgan.

* BNP Paribas Securities Corp (OTC:BNPQY.PK)

* Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC)

* Barclays PLC (NYSE:BCS)

* Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C)

* Credit Suisse Group (NYSE:CS)

* Daiwa Securities Group Inc (Other OTC:DSECY.PK)

* Deutsche Bank Group AG (NYSE:DB)

* Allianz SE (NYSE:AZ)

* Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS)

* Royal Bank ADS (NYSE:RBS)

* HSBC Holdings Plc ADS (NYSE:HBC)

* JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM)

* Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE:LEH)

* Merrill Lynch & Co Inc (NYSE:MER)

* Mizuho Financial Group Inc (NYSE:MFG)

* Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS)


* Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE)

* Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM)

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 12:37:19 PM

From what I've seen, the return of capital has been largely to "retail" investors of $10M/account or less.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 12:35:19 PM

Broad Settlement On Auction-Rate Securities "Imminent" ... DJ via CNBC - A "global" settlement with Wall Street investment banks that sold auction-rate securities to customers who may have been misled about the bonds is "imminent" and could be announced as early as Wednesday, CNBC's Charlie Gasparino reported, citing sources familiar with the matter. The settlement would involve the New York State Attorney General's Office, the Securities and Exchange Commission and other major regulators, according to Gasparino. Banks to be covered by the pact include JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS),and Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER). Its terms - including fines and payment to individual investors at par value - would match those of individual settlements recently signed with Citigroup Inc. (C) and UBS AG (UBS).

Jane Fox : 8/13/2008 12:36:31 PM

I bought 2 USO calls this morning and have a stop just under yesterday's lows. I don't expect Crude to rally too much but I think it can get up at least $120. Just to make it clear to everyone and I don?t have anyone asking when/if I get out of these calls my stop is below yesterday's lows. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 12:27:46 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 12:16:03 PM

I've always said there are two (2) markets. The big board and the NASDAQ.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 12:15:37 PM

COMPX 2,404 -1.05% ... WKLY R1 tested Monday. WKLY Pivot 2,369.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 12:15:01 PM

NYSE sitting on its WKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 12:14:02 PM

Or at least I agree per my past comments.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 12:13:38 PM

Excellent, excellent comment from Ms. Cohen ... "Dollar should be used as RELATIVE price"

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 12:12:14 PM

SPY $127.84 -1.16%

SPX 1,276 -1.05% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 12:09:56 PM

XLF $20.37 -3.28% ... as a benchmark.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 12:09:18 PM

CNBC reporting possible global settlement of Auction Rate Securities next week.

For those following the news of late, several firms have settled, paid the fines, no admission of guilt.

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 12:06:29 PM

If the OEX should bounce now, look for first potential resistance on 15-minute closes at 591.46 with first potential resistance on 30-minute closes now showing up at 592.51. We really have to see how the OEX behaves with respect to a resistance test before we know too much more. For now, there's still vulnerability to at least 587 although bears now need to know where there stops should be in case a bounce gets started and gets too big for their trades. We're in the iffy zone here where it could go either way. I felt pretty comfortable warning subscribers not to automatically buy the 10-sma test because of that vulnerability, but what happens next isn't so easy to assess until we see how the resistance tests go.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 12:06:21 PM

WB-UR is an OBLIGATION to buy 100 shares of WB at $12.50.

Or $12.50 - 1.15 = $11.35.

If currently long the WB-UD at $4.40, you have the RIGHT to sell WB at $20.00.

Or $20.00 - $4.40 = $15.60.

I call this a "buy, run and write." Bought the put, let it run lower, then write an out-the-money covered at higher VIX.X and premium.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 12:02:21 PM

Swing trade sell COVERED put alert! ... with Wachovia (WB) $14.94 -6.62% and VIX.X 22.05 +4.15% ... Let's sell one (1) of the WB Aug $12.50 Puts (WB-UR) at the bid of $1.15

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 11:54:33 AM

Sure wish I still had those 2 OEX put contracts that I closed at the end of the day yesterday! With the action the way that it is lately and with those being about-to-expire AUG puts, I didn't want to hold overnight, but instead lock in the values as of late yesterday.

The OEX is no2 testing/slightly below the rising trendline off the 7/15 low. The target provided by the OEX's 15-minute chart, formerly at 587, has now sunk to 586.78, but I've found sometimes that the original target is the only one hit, if it's hit at all. Obviously, the OEX is approaching that potential target closer and closer, so bears need to have their profit-protecting plans updated frequently from this point, as bounce potential increases and the target might not be hit. If I anchor a Fib bracket to Monday's high and today's low so far, the various Fib lines fit quite nicely with most of the sideways consolidation taking place just above the 50% mark, so you must consider the possibility that this move down is nearing an end. That's not a promise but it is a reason to keep spiffing up those profit-protecting plans.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 11:42:35 AM

Also a WB vs. SPY Link

Would read as "WB relative strength chart on BUY signal versus SPX, but currently in a column of O"

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 11:39:47 AM

I should also show charts ...

WB Link

SSO Link

SPX Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 11:36:09 AM

First glance is that my Purchases moving average won't have changed much.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 11:35:24 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 11:33:03 AM

WB-UD $5.40 x $5.50

SUC-IJ $2.55 x $2.85

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 11:31:28 AM

WB $15.00 -6.25% ... trades the $15 strike.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 11:30:12 AM

Now, INDU/DIA a different type of weighting than SPX/SPY

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 11:28:30 AM

Or ....

SPY then XLF -3.21% and OIX +1.34%

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 11:27:26 AM

WB $15.04 -6.00% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 11:26:49 AM

SPY $128.05 -1.00% ...

SSO $60.95 -2.08% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 11:20:44 AM

Swing trade put(s) filled alert! on the PMJ-TI for $0.10. Have traded as high as $0.12.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 11:18:58 AM

Energy Futures @ 10:40 AM EDT ... about the time of VLO bullish profile.

Quick review of "crack spread" or difference between INPUT=Oil and the OUTPUT=Gasoline.

Keene Little : 8/13/2008 11:17:26 AM

SPX has now cropped slightly below the uptrend line from August 4th, just below 1278. Slightly lower is the uptrend line from July 15th near 1274. For an expectation of a rally to a higher high into the end of the week I think that's the key level now. Any break below 1274 would be a strong signal that the bounce from July 15th is already over. A selloff into tomorrow could lead to a rally on Friday (dark red on the 90-min chart) but it would make for a good setup on the short side heading into next week. If 1274 holds then there remains the possibility for a rally to the new high by Friday (pink). Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 11:11:34 AM

DXY 76.36 +0.27% (30-minute delayed) ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 11:11:11 AM

AMR $11.22 -8.03% ...

CAL $16.71 -6.54%

JBLU $5.64 -3.91% ...

Remember, you were BUYING when oil was going to $200.

We're out and gains taken! (wink)

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 11:08:36 AM

Don't hear Washington complaining much about "energy speculators" the last week or so.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 11:07:40 AM

CNBC reporting "margin calls" on futures ...

As noted several weeks ago. Speculators can "hurt" and speculators can "help" when the trade moves against them.

Key is for speculator to manage the RISK.

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 11:06:29 AM

So far, potential support on 30-minute closes that's now at 592.12 is holding for the OEX. Watch for first resistance on 15-minute closes at 593.67 with next potentially strong resistance from 594.62-595.53 on 15- and 30-minute closes. If the OEX is able to maintain 15-minute closes above 593.67, bears should be aware that the 587 downside target is being put on review, shall we say. If the OEX maintains 15-minute closes above resistance that's now at 595.53, then it's even more questionable. Until those happen, however, that potential downside target still exists, and all should assess vulnerability to that level, including those who might otherwise be thinking of buying the daily 10-sma support. That support could well hold and the OEX never look back as it zooms upward again, but know the possibilities before you step in, and the possibilities currently say there's vulnerability to 587. OEX at 592.33 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 11:00:30 AM

SPY $128.31 -0.80% ... low has been $128.03. WKLY Pivot there too.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:59:38 AM

Seeing some "Op-Ex" looking trade ...

RIO $24.94 +1.34% ...

PBR $50.02 +1.19%

BOOM $30.51 +2.14% .... trying to pull above (be cognizant here too) I doubt it, but you just never know. QCB-HG (other part of strangle) $0.00 x $0.05

WB $15.30 -4.37% .... low has been $15.01.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:54:48 AM

Disclosure: I held/hold bullish position in VLO at time of this mornings profile

Jane Fox : 8/13/2008 10:53:07 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Motor gasoline supplies fell by 6.4 million barrels to 202.8 million for the week ended August 8, according to the Energy Department Wednesday. Crude supplies fell 400,000 barrels to 296.5 million barrels. Distillate stocks were down 1.7 million barrels at 131.6 million barrels. Refinery utilization was at 85.9% compared with 87% of capacity a week earlier. Following the news, September crude was up $1.67 at $114.68 a barrel on Globex.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:52:59 AM

For those new to the MM, or those wanting to encorporate RISK management to their trading.

I trade my MM profiles as $10,000.00 = full position.

VLO @ $34.72 .... so take $10K x 0.333 to get $3,333.33.

Then take $3,333.33 divide by $34.72 to get 96 shares.

An OPTIONS trader (depending on assessment of premiums) could equate to one (1) option.

Tab Gilles : 8/13/2008 10:51:59 AM

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $46.28 +$1.24 (2.73%Link

UNG Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:48:42 AM

VIX.X 21.85 +3.21% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:48:25 AM

Swing trade puts place order alert! ... with PBR $49.74 +0.62% ... and just more than 2 days until expiration, place order to sell the PMJ-TI for $0.10 (check your commission schedule to make sure this makes sense). PMT-TI $0.05 x $0.15.

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 10:46:55 AM

I'm not predicting that the rising wedge support will be broken, especially on a daily close, but I am suggesting that it is and always has been a possibility. If it should break and the OEX should head down, bears need to know ahead of time how they'll treat a test of 587, if it should occur, as the OEX could then bounce up into a retest of the trendline. Are you willing to weather that retest, if there's a breakdown and that test occurs?

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:45:59 AM

FXE $149.10 -0.21% ... just never know for sure.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:44:12 AM

USO 5-day% +0.33% 20-day% -8.20%

UGA 5-day% +2.47% 20-day% -4.50%

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 10:43:59 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: The A/D line's formation has narrowed into a triangle, but bears need to be aware that while narrowing into a triangle, it's so far maintaining the support of its 15-minute 9-ema on 15-minute closes. That's at about -760 with further potential support at -805. Bears want to see both broken on 15-minute closes. A/D line at -722 as I type. That hasn't been broken, preserving the chance that the A/D line will attempt a bounce.

This is particularly important since the OEX is now hitting the 10-sma and approaching the rising trendline off the 7/15 low, where some buyers might attempt to step in. Be hesitant about doing so, however, if you're a subscriber here. While anything can and does happen, the OEX has a current downside target of 587 on its 15-minute chart. I'm not sure it will be reached, but I've long learned not to discount vulnerabilities because I don't "think" they'll be hit.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:43:17 AM

USO $93.15 +1.81%

UGA $54.28 +2.62%

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:42:32 AM

Valero (VLO) ... Stop/target will be $32.00 and $42.50.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:41:42 AM

Swing trade long alert! ... for 1/3 position in shares of Valero Energy (VLO) $34.72 here.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:40:00 AM

EIA: US Total Gasoline stockpiles down 6.4M barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:39:17 AM

EIA: Crude oil stockpiles down 400K

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:38:48 AM

SLB $94.04 +1.50% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:38:26 AM

COP $80.64 +0.86% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:38:06 AM

CVX $84.15 +0.70% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:37:52 AM

XOM $77.50 +0.81% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:36:29 AM

PBR $49.09 -0.70% ... be al_rt out there.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:35:58 AM

USO $91.96 +0.51% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:34:37 AM

DIA $115.33 -1.06% ... large block(s) level alert!

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:33:07 AM

VIX.X 21.76 +2.78% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:32:50 AM

SUC-IJ $2.65 x $2.90

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:32:24 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:26:59 AM

YM 11,534 ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:26:22 AM

SPY $128.43

SSO $61.36

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:25:44 AM

Get short under control Alert! ... For ES trader the e-mailed me Monday morning.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:23:15 AM

US June Business Inventories +0.7%

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 10:21:59 AM

The OEX is still testing, testing the potential support on 30-minute closes at 592.14. If the OEX should bounce from this level, watch for potential resistance now at 594.75-595.13.

Keene Little : 8/13/2008 10:15:08 AM

SPX is trying to hold in the 1280-1285 area and it's a good place to try a long but I would not want to be long if it drops through 1280. At least I'd want to first see if the uptrend line from August 4th, currently near 1277 holds.

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 10:12:03 AM

The RUT has potentially strong resistance on 30-minute closes at about 746.35 and then again at 748.50. Currently, it has potentially strong support at 741.70, with this on 15-minute closes.

Jane Fox : 8/13/2008 10:08:53 AM

The bearish AD line, AD volume and TRIN sort of overpower the VIX but don't discount it.

Jane Fox : 8/13/2008 10:06:33 AM

AD line opens well under 0 and the TRIN is a bearish 1.26 but the VIX is falling so the bulls are gain strength.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 10:06:08 AM

DIA, SPY, QQQQ, IWM, SMH, XLF, USO, GLD ... August "Max Pain" tabulations at Friday's close Link

PRICES of issues also last Friday's close.

DIA $115.56 -0.84%
SPY $128.54 -0.62%
QQQQ $47.78 -0.04%
IWM $74.39 +0.10% ...
SMH $30.518 +0.59%
XLF $20.78 -1.88%
USO $91.75 +0.28%
GLD $80.64 +0.14%

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 10:04:43 AM

The OEX has now punched down to what may be significant support at 592.17. Although the OEX's 15-minute chart shows a much lower potential downside target--now at 587.13--bears should consider the possibility that support might hold here or else at the converging 10-sma and rising wedge support, as outlined in my 9:25 post. Adjust your stops now according to the risk you want to take--either widening them if you believe that much lower prices are in store and you don't want to be stopped or tightening them if you intended just a short-term trade and don't want to give up much of your profits. It's your decision, but this is opex week, sometimes a crazy week in the best of times. Particularly when a casual glance at the daily chart shows how quickly the tide can turn, please don't ever let a profit turn into a loss.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 9:57:29 AM

Financial SPDRs (XLF) $20.69 -2.26% ... slip below August's "Max Pain" theory tabulation of $21.00 ($1 inc.)

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 9:55:54 AM

July's Retail Sales Report ... At this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 9:51:45 AM

Brit Pound CurrencyShares (FXB) $187.63 -1.24% ... 1-point box Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 9:49:29 AM

Today's Global Economic Calendar ... Link

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 9:48:34 AM

Kelnter outlook on the A/D line: As should be obvious from the price action, the A/D line made its first prints in the lower or bearish half of its Keltner channels. The A/D line punched through what was potential support near -635, and, if it can't soon break back above that, it's setting potential downside targets of about -900 and then -1250 if that doesn't hold. The A/D line is -723, bouncing off its low into a test of that first support-turned-resistance level.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 9:47:22 AM

Lehman Bros. (LEH) $15.90 -1.91% ... 61.8% of its no "naked short" rule.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 9:45:06 AM

Deere's 3Q profit rises 7% ... AP Story Link

DE $61.87 -10.75% Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 9:41:21 AM

Best Buy becomes first independent iPhone retailer ... AP Story Link

BBY $46.02 +2.47% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 9:37:41 AM

Japanese economy posts second-quarter contraction ... AP Story Link

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 9:37:35 AM

As anticipated might happen, the OEX has dropped to test potential support on 30-minute closes mentioned in my 9:25:22 post. Next potential support on that chart, if this being-tested support is lost, has dipped to 592.30 with the 61.8% retracement of the climb off Friday's low at 593.86 and likely to provide at least some interim support.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2008 9:26:08 AM

Retail sales drop or first time in 5 months ... AP Story Link

Linda Piazza : 8/13/2008 9:25:22 AM

If we extrapolate where the OEX might go this morning based on the ES contract's distance below fair values, we must consider the possibility that the OEX will dip to test potential support on 30-minute closes now at 594.42 and 592.46. The 61.8% retracement of the rally off Friday's high is within that zone, at about 593.86. If in bearish positions, update your profit-protecting plans to decide how you would treat such a test, if it occurs.

Here's where the OEX is on its daily chart, within its rising wedge shape: Link Obviously, a test of the potential support on 30-minute closes would constitute a near-test of the (thin blue line) 10-sma and, if the OEX dips much lower, a test of the rising wedge support. The 15-minute chart suggests that both could be tested, so it's not out of the realm of possibility that they could be, but traders have to see how the OEX acts with regard to that higher potential support before they begin making too many suppositions. The OEX could hit that support and bounce.

If the OEX should bounce after hitting that support or even before, surprising traders by an early move higher, look for potentially strong resistance near 598.75-599.00 on 15-minute and 30-minute closes.

Jane Fox : 8/13/2008 9:03:52 AM

BEIJING -- Michael Phelps swam into history as the winningest Olympic athlete ever with his 11th career gold medal -- and fifth world record of the Beijing Games.

A day after etching his name alongside Mark Spitz and Carl Lewis with gold No. 9, Mr. Phelps claimed the record all to himself when he won the 200-meter butterfly Wednesday morning. It was his 10th career gold medal.

Mr. Phelps won his fifth gold of games an hour later, leading the U.S. team in an 800-meter freestyle relay that also set a new world record. He has three more chances to stretch his gold medal lead before he leaves China.

Jane Fox : 8/13/2008 9:00:38 AM

I still think Crude has a very good chance of finding support here but becoming less and less convinced any rally will break $120.00. Link

Jane Fox : 8/13/2008 8:55:11 AM

Crude is trading at $113.80 as I type.

Jane Fox : 8/13/2008 8:54:46 AM

At 10 a.m., business inventories for June will be released.

Keene Little : 8/13/2008 8:54:15 AM

Equity futures slid lower during the overnight session and then dropped more sharply from about 6:00 AM. Last night I had mentioned we should see SPX find support around 1282-1283 if we're getting just a pullback before pressing higher into the end of the week. It looks like that area will be hit right away if the futures stay down here. That makes for the possibility that we'll get a down open that gets reversed fairly quickly.

Jane Fox : 8/13/2008 8:53:45 AM

Both the S&P (ES) and DOW (YM) futures broke their previous day lows overnight. Looks like they didn't like the economic data out at 8:30. Link

Jane Fox : 8/13/2008 8:50:43 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. retail sales fell 0.1% in July, as falling auto sales offset in increase in gasoline sales sparked by higher prices, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday.

Excluding the 2.4% drop in vehicle sales, seasonally adjusted retail sales rose 0.4% in July, the smallest gain since February.

Excluding the 0.8% rise in gasoline sales, retail sales fell 0.2%.

Excluding both autos and gas, sales rose 0.3%. Retail sales are up 2.6% in the past year. The figures are not adjusted for price changes. Excluding gasoline, sales are up just 0.2% in the past year.

Sales were a bit stronger than expected. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected sales to fall 0.3% in July. Excluding autos, sales were expected to rise 0.5%.

Sales in June were revised higher to a 0.3% gain from 0.1% originally estimated.

Jane Fox : 8/13/2008 8:46:39 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. import prices rose by 1.7% in July, mostly on prices for imported petroleum and natural gas, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. Prices were up 21.6% over the past 12 months, the largest 12-month increase in the history of the index. Petroleum import prices climbed by 4% in the month, while natural gas prices rose by 5.8%. Excluding all fuels, import prices rose by 0.7% in July.

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