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OI Technical Staff : 8/15/2008 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 9:10:37 PM

OK ... going over some notes now.

This is my mindset, based on observation, as well as some questions from subscribers that have me thinking.

What I see the market (investors, traders) doing is this.

Investors/traders around the globe have perhaps decided that maybe, just maybe, the U.S. is the "safest" place to park assets.

Let's say the "banking crisis" was foreseen as many had been warning for 5 years, as the SPX surged in one of the greatest bull markets ever seen.

Now, we have seen one major bank Bear Stearns fail.

In 2007, the Shanghai Composite surged 96.7%. Pretty nice gain. Perhaps reflecting some rapid growth.

Now, so far this year, Shanghai down about 53%, so it has retraced 50% of 2007 gains.

Yes, strong demand for oil, commodities for sure. Have you seen the new facilities in China that were built for this year's Summer Olympics?

Then the "brick countries" really get going. Brazil and other Latin American regions. Even more is that global market participants may have been "dodging the bullet" and staying out of U.S. assets to a great degree.

Result certainly could have been "PLUNGING" dollar.

PLUNGING dollar just fueld the surge in commodity prices, as oil and commodities are denominated in US$.

Boom!

That trade begins to unwind. Maybe, just maybe global market participants see some light and the end of the tunnel here in the U.S.

Now things coming back into "equilibrium" on a global scale.

Remember the criticisms that some had for the Fed back in 2000, that Greenspan was so concerned about wage inflation that he held rates too high, for too long, thus choking U.S. into recession. Even worse was 9/11 afterward.

Fed had to pump liquidity into market after that crisis..

Then of course, the Fed kept rates too low for too long. Etc, etc.

See, I think ECB and perhaps London Bank are "so concerned" with the commodity inflation (due to weak US$) that they are too tight.

Think of it.

What if (and we'll NEVER know the answer) the ECB had cut rates several months ago?

BOLD move for sure (some would have called for some heads if ECB or LB cut rates with commodity surge), but what if they had "taken the risk" just to see if they couldn't have influenced market participants to have started selling the euro, thus some strength to the US$, to have GRADUALLY eased the "commodity bubble."

Remember that night 06/13/08 if I remember, when we were watching the euro closely? Oil was at an important level and it looked like it might break lower?

What happened? ECB's Trichett issued VERY HAWKISH statements and the euro surged higher, so did oil!

Now, what I think we've seen the past few weeks, it the "commodity bubble" in part created from the DECLINE in the US$, now unwinds quickly.

Some turmoil for sure.

You watch ... but the next Centra Bank move will come from the euro-zone.

The CURRENCIES there (euro and pound) are forecasting it.

Right?

When a central bank starts easing, the home currency tends to weaken. That's what easing does. It INCREASES the money supply, or hopes to STIMULATE.

The DECLINES in the euro and pound may well be the message of the market that euro-zone rates are TOO HIGH, or TOO TIGHT.

Now the VIX.X!

Is the "LOWER" VIX.X a sign of complacency?

I think not. I told you about the traders the traders that shorted QQQQ and SPY almost constantly a few years ago. The VIX.X was their focal point is it suggested to them "complacency" as it fell from 35 to 30. Then from 30 to 25. Then from 25 to 20. Then from 20 to 10 and stayed there for about two (2) years!

Look at the RUT.X and think "more tied to U.S. domestic economy."

But the VIX.X is tied more with the S&P 500.

What's the S&P 500 doing?

Nothing, nada, zilch! Yet QQQQ and RUT.X making some gain.

See, I think market participants may indeed be saying (as one subscriber asked a couple of week ago) that if the BANKS can't go HIGHER, and OIL prices FALL, how can the SPX go anywhere?

So, I put together the SPX Heavyweight so we can observe. Sure enough, BANKS jump from the lows, OIL/ENERGY stocks fall from the highs!

You've notice from some of them that there WEIGHTINGS have changed.

That's how a cap-weighted index finds equilibrium.

Again, I can't follow all 500, and we see from the BPSPX that there are some stocks generating "buy signals." Observations we CAN'T identify unless we look at 500 PnF charts each and every night.

The BPALL. That's about 6,000 stocks!

What I think we're seeing in the OPTIONS market, is some OUT-THE-MONEY put premium selling on and index, or some BIG STOCKS, that market participants really don't see as "going anywhere" anytime soon.

The VIX.X isn't PLUNGING as if BULL EUPHORIA is beaking out all over the joint.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 5:25:22 PM

INDU Weekly % Gainers (+2% or more) ... PG +2.82%, WMT +2.60%, AXP +3.33%, T +2.22%, HD +4.39%, GM +11.46%

INDU Weekly % Losers (-2.00% or more) ... CVX -1.95%

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 5:11:19 PM

IWM finished $75.10 -0.26% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 5:08:31 PM

XLF finished $21.36 +0.70% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 4:59:06 PM

05/30/08 Closing Watch Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 4:46:07 PM

Great test for SMA is if RUT.X can finish next WEEK above its 150-week SMA.

Did so this week, but also did so the week of 05/25/08, but then reversed back lower.

IS DEMAND strong enough to hold a close for 2-weeks in a row? Signal a change from the past?

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 4:42:07 PM

RUT.X 753.37 -0.13% ... First weekly close above it 50-week SMA since closing below the week of 10/28/07.

As al_rted to the week of 07/20/08, the RUT.X closed above its 30-week SMA, which now curling higher at 707.958

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 4:33:16 PM

DXY's 04:00 Tick 77.192 ... First time DXY positive for 2008 since 02/08/08!

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 4:15:16 PM

FXE $146.97 -0.89%
FXY $92.21 -0.81%
FXB $186.70 -0.20%

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 4:12:27 PM

XLF $21.30 +0.42% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 4:11:46 PM

SPY $130.15 +0.47% ...

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 4:09:27 PM

Who would have thought it would happen this month--a typical summer option-expiration Friday. Go home and have a good weekend with people and activities that are meaningful. Refresh your spirit and we'll look forward to seeing you again Monday morning.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 4:08:29 PM

BOOM $32.05 +0.43% ... couldn't get it done for the QCB-HG.

The QCB-TF closed on 08/01/08 at $1.80 end $0.00 so some pain if "complacent"

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 4:05:16 PM

DIA $116.54 +0.11% ... to its close at 04:15 PM EDT

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 4:04:52 PM

SPY $130.10 +0.43% ... to its close at 04:15 PM EDT

Keene Little : 8/15/2008 4:02:56 PM

The DOW's sideways triangle consolidation pattern from yesterday continues to look bullish for another rally leg on Monday. As shown with the pink wave count on the 60-min chart, another leg up to equal the 1st leg up from Wednesday gives us an upside target of 11883. Then there are two more Fib projections of interest at 11988 and 12045. Link

If we get the leg up I'll be watching for a 5-wave move to help identify where the top might be and start looking for a good short entry. A break below 11388 is still needed to confirm the bears are back in control but a break below Wednesday's low near 11453 would be a heads up that the breakdown is in progress.

Jane Fox : 8/15/2008 3:54:30 PM

I may live to regret my decision to bail on my USO calls. It is always hard when you say "below the lows" because you don?t have a good idea as to how much below. I have a very low tolerance for losses so have a tendency to bail too early. I will find out next week if I did or did not. Link

Jane Fox : 8/15/2008 3:51:51 PM

It doesn't look like we have much on the economic docket for Monday just the 1:00p.m. Aug NAHB Housing Market Index: Previous: 16.

Keene Little : 8/15/2008 3:51:07 PM

Into the close and the picture hasn't changed as far as what to expect on Monday. I could easily argue for a move in either direction out of the gate Monday and therefore flat is a good position. If the market is ready to start down hard, it will become obvious that we should short the bounces. But if it continues to chop its way higher then we'll have a day or two to watch and get ready to position for the short side.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 3:43:50 PM

USO $92.02 -0.77% ... At last night's close, August had fallen to $102.

What a change from Friday's tabulation.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 3:42:29 PM

USO $91.95 -0.85% ... September "Max Pain" theory at last night's close $109.00 ($1 inc.)

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 3:38:53 PM

USO $92.01 -0.78% ... reclaimes M S1.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 3:37:33 PM

SPY $130.00 +0.35% ... 40-minutes. 40-minutes until Aug expiration.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 3:35:44 PM

What releases are scheduled for Sunday night and Monday morning on foreign markets? At 5:00 am ET, The Eurozone's Trade Balance will be released, but that's about it as far as important announcements already scheduled.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 3:32:32 PM

We don't know what might happen into the close today, but I want to do the update on where the OEX is a bit early due to this being opex Friday. As far as the intraday movements today, the OEX has been churning between support and resistance and may go on doing so into the close. Traders should be wary if the OEX should suddenly break through support, however, near 596.50, as there might then be a quick trip down to 593-594 and perhaps even lower.

However, barring a huge move into the close of the day, we still know some things from the daily chart. Barring a strong move down, for example, the OEX will end the day and the week inside the rising price channel in which it's been moving up from the 7/15 low. However, barring a big move up, it's going to be ending the day, for the third day in a row, rather nearer the bottom support than the top resistance. Unlike other times it's tested this support, it has not immediately zoomed up to test the top resistance again.

On the weekly chart, there's a doji at the top of a climb, but we've seen a lot of doji ("doji" is both singular and plural) while the OEX climbed, so that certainly doesn't mean an immediate reversal is guaranteed.

Taken all together, however, I would watch for two possibilities: that the OEX could break down out of that rising price channel and drop down to test the 30-sma, now at about 583.20, or, perhaps that it could just zigzag sideways out of the side of that rising price channel, in which case the wedge is then rendered rather useless as a predictor of next action.

Let's mix this up a bit, though, and consider all angles. Chart setups mean little lately, although this rising wedge certainly has held together rather well. The OEX could of course rise through its price channel again and break out toward a 200-sma test, but right now, the behavior at this support test the last three days just doesn't give that the preference for the next action. Keltner channels tell a different story, however, suggesting that it's certainly possible that the OEX will climb toward this week's high again, at least. If support now near 593.79 is lost on a daily close, however, that chart outlook is changed, and it will then look more likely that the OEX will drop into a 30-sma test. So, it appears that the 593-594 zone is an important one.

Again, take that with a grain of salt. If you can look at the price action over the last month and tell me you know exactly what you know is going to happen next . . . well, I won't believe you! I'll say you have a 50-50 chance of being right.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 3:24:04 PM

Global Bullish % Link

I've noted BPALL for several weeks now.

RUT.X may also be reflecting the "US was first to experience slowdown, but coming out/stabilizing" and that "foreign markets experience slowdown."

ECB "too tight" and may not see the tree through the forest.

MARKET begins to agree with my analysis, sells euro hard on thought ECB starts to loosen.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 3:08:00 PM

There ... that's the scenario I think, based on observation, in play.

See your Major Global Indexes, currencies, USO, Gold ...

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 3:04:37 PM

The OEX is still just churning. The bond market has just closed, so it's possible we'll see a change in tenor, but those who have waited out opex Friday's have known some where nothing changes and each jit higher is match by a jot lower and vice versa.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 3:03:47 PM

WB $15.48 -2.08% ... It's 21-day SMA is currently at $16.35

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 3:03:04 PM

Simple Moving Average traders! ... what has MER not been able to do since secondary?

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 3:01:12 PM

Plan for the worst! Be able to survive it.

The BEST will take care of itself and we profit.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 2:58:58 PM

What IF WB $20.00 pricing? Do I want to be entire account WB-UD, or half the account.

No! Position size.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 2:57:25 PM

What IF WB $12.50 pricing? Do I want to be NAKED $12.50?

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 2:55:15 PM

Thinking WB $15.00 ????

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 2:54:42 PM

OK ... MER $26.09 +0.42% ... closed $26.25 day of its secondary.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 2:53:33 PM

Where's MER at? We know how it has traded since its secondary.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 2:52:32 PM

We'll get the news at some point.

In meantime, simply make sure NOT overleveraged.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 2:51:51 PM

If secondary, YOU CAN BET there is one investment bank, maybe two that already knows the price and the size.

Those INDICATING also know and they've made adjustment.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 2:50:36 PM

Wachovia (WB) $15.44 -2.34% ... haven't had time to check balance sheet. But thinking earlier thoughts probably in play regarding secondary offering.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 2:46:13 PM

The OEX is just sitting at potential support on the 15-minute chart, not breaking below it, but certainly not bouncing quickly back above it as it's done previously. That potential support is now at 596.74 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 2:42:54 PM

"Bailey Wave" traders can do the same, but LEAVE the wave on the chart. Don't keep changing it.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 2:42:11 PM

Pivot trader, or retracement level traders can measure. Assess RISK to support, REWARD to resistance.

Each second, each minute, each hour, each day .... .

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 2:40:48 PM

He thinks GLD $77.65 -2.14% ... near a bottom.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 2:40:04 PM

CNBC gold bull likes GG $30.09 -2.68% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 2:34:40 PM

Oh my! ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 2:33:46 PM

Sunpower (SPWR) $92.70 +18.11% ... CNBC mentioning something about utility having made "big bet"

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 2:27:29 PM

For every buyer (optimist, worrier) there is a seller (pessimist, worrier).

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 2:22:59 PM

Optimism, worry, complacency are ANECDOTAL

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 2:22:23 PM

The OEX has broken below the rising trendline off yesterday's late-day dip on the 15-minute chart, preserved and validated by this morning's first two dips. It is, however, just testing the potentially strong support on 15-minute closes now at 596.75, and so, unfortunately, still just churning until that's broken soundly. If it is broken, the next downside target is currently 593.18, as predicted by the 15-minute chart, but be careful of believing too strongly in any prediction on an opex Friday. OEX at 596.77 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 2:22:11 PM

But it moved on a QUANTITATIVE basis. Easily measured by the bullish %.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 2:18:39 PM

Yes! ... It moved like an "inchworm"

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 2:17:52 PM

When the S&P 500 made its first 52-week low in 2001 and computers inventory rose to exhausting levels, what did it do?

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 2:16:53 PM

When the S&P 500 made its first 52-week high in 2003 as computers inventory became exhausted and climbed the wall of worry in what became one of the greatest bull markets, what did it do?

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 2:13:21 PM

What are the "precious metals" new lows doing?

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 2:12:24 PM

What are those "bank 52-week high" stocks from Monday doing?

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 2:10:16 PM

Check out your USO ... intra-day action. See how the computers have traded. It hits, computers turn on and buy. It hits, computers turn on and sell.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 2:08:45 PM

GLD's Daily S2 $78.10

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 2:07:55 PM

DXY 77.253 (30-minute delayed) ... trading DAILY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 2:02:14 PM

Or sit it out, see if SPX can make the move above MONTHLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 2:00:58 PM

I could see "rolling out" of UWM-HS from 07/07/08 entry into an SUC-IJ.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 1:59:02 PM

Just seeing the IWM did trade its 12/31/07 close today.

Keene Little : 8/15/2008 1:54:51 PM

The consolidation pattern today can easily be interpreted as either bearish or bullish. After rallying up from yesterday afternoon the sideways triangle looks like a bullish consolidation pattern and fits as part of an expected choppy rise into Monday/Tuesday. But with the potential topping action in NDX I have to consider the possibility that we're seeing the start of what will be a sharp drop out of today's consolidation.

Therefore, as we approach the last two hours of trading before the weekend I'm tempted to pick up a few puts for a JIC play (just in case). But we'd need to see a down day on Monday to confirm the bearish case. In the meantime I still think this market is for the bulls to lose, which they haven't done yet.

Jane Fox : 8/15/2008 1:53:26 PM

The Russell 2000 (Small Caps) has made a 100% retracement of the decline from June 5th high to its July 15th low. Link

Jane Fox : 8/15/2008 1:50:39 PM

All American index futures markets are under their overnight lows. The internals were as bullish earlier so I did not expect this but the market is here to prove us wrong most of the time. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 1:48:12 PM

I'm here. I'm watching. However, the OEX is just churning so far. Micromanaging by reporting on each little jit and jot could do more harm than good. Perhaps someone who is leaning toward an iffy trade might be convinced that a quick observation supports the trade, and I don't want to do that.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 1:44:38 PM

Beetle's Balanced ... top is from 06/30/08 benchmark. Bottom is from 03/31/08 Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 1:44:30 PM

Or look at your "Beetle's Balanced"

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 1:44:22 PM

We've seen the carnage of selling short the RUT from a couple of weeks ago ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 1:44:14 PM

Or ... a trader could actually "sell a weak sector/stock" and be long a broader market that is strengthening.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 1:31:43 PM

Or RUT.X just sits up here, but SPY come up.

The "inchworm"

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 1:31:04 PM

There ... trader mentioning ... "I think you short the RUT and get long the SPY"

That would be a "come together" type of trade.

See U.S. Market Watch and 20-day Net%

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 1:18:18 PM

IWM $75.06 -0.31% .... d, d, "ditto"

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 1:17:51 PM

QQQQ $48.26 +0.02% ... have seen some of that!

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 1:17:25 PM

SSO 62.83 +0.72% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 1:16:55 PM

Interesting take ... Global investors may not want to place capital in europe with the Russian bear aggressive. Capital may see LESS RISK and move to U.S. assets.

Keene Little : 8/15/2008 1:02:25 PM

Price action continues to narrow in its oscillations, typical for a summer Friday and especially an opex summer Friday. It will probably go flat line on us.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 12:58:26 PM

Action in the Treasury market.

Certainly depicts the "lowering of inflation." But as fellow trader and RISK manager Art Cashin noted, "is it defensive buying?"

Remember! Some feel certain of stagflation, FED's hands tied. No idea what they're doing. Could be BIG short position in Treasuries that needs to unwind, or maybe some start to think Fed and Treasury do know what they're doing.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 12:55:19 PM

TSO $18.23 +2.70% TSO-HI expire today. Crack simply unwound and trade got away. Made some bang on VLO days before though.

NVDA $13.00 (unch) ... UVA-IX got gapped and not much could be done. Holding

RIO $25.15 -2.97% ... RIO-HK expire today. Sold half for smaller loss, but these go poof today.

BAC $30.65 +1.55% ... BAC-TS go poof today. Made some buck on BAC-TG, assessed the risk and went further out. Stock ramped on earnings.

BOOM $32.49 +1.81% ... QCB-HG order to sell for $0.35.

WB $15.79 -0.12% ... long put and out-the-money covered put.

SSO $62.84 +0.73% ... long SUC-IJ

VLO $34.65 +2.12% ... long 1/3 position.

AU $27.03 -1.60% ... long put

DUG $38.50 +4.36% ... some VLO/SSO ties, but long call today based on DXY/GLD and USO observations.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 12:50:03 PM

The OEX is just churning. This churning is going to churn the chart setups, too, with those already somewhat scrambled by all the zooming around that's been going on. In my 10:48:51 post, I noted that we might see some chop back and forth between support and resistance and that's certainly what's happening. The pattern appears to be narrowing into one with a flat top and a rising bottom--a potential bullish triangle--but TRIN is rising and now bouncing from the support of its 15-minute 9-ema, and the A/D line just reached another new low of the day, with volatility indices somewhat contradicting that evidence, so don't count too heavily on any one thing happening.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 12:48:00 PM

Excellent comments from Art.

Assess what the market is saying (bonds, commodities) and then try and help the client.

TELL them what you think needs to be done NOW.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 12:39:04 PM

USO 5-minute intervals with QCharts' WKLY and DAILY Pivot levels turned on. Your "Chart of the Week" monthly and quarterly pivot retracement. Link

Longer-term, intermediate-term, to short term.

Each second, each minute, each hour, each day, each week, each month, each quarter ... the MARKET always assesses risk/reward. For computers, they do it with LEVELS.

Constantly measuring SUPPLY and DEMAND.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 12:32:11 PM

USO daily's are $89.45, $91.12, Piv= $92.72, $94.39, $95.99.

WKLY have been $87.02, $89.95 (support 1), Piv= $95.64 never traded.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 12:30:01 PM

So far, the OEX is holding above potential support on 15-minute closes now at 596.65. OEX at 597.44 as I type. If that support is broken, the next potential support on 15-minute closes currently appears to be near 594-594.50. Remember the possibility that the OEX could just churn this afternoon. If you've got an open call or put position and you're accustomed to setting stops contingent on OEX action, you might consider changing those stops this afternoon so that they're contingent on options price unless they're so deep in the money that there's no time premium left in them. If they're near-the-money options, they're going to be leaking premium all afternoon if the OEX just churns.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 12:29:43 PM

USO session low has been, been $90.04.

As noted for years ... tends to move in round increments.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 12:28:56 PM

When I sold the IYS-TO NAKED on 07/16/08 as USO traded $108.26 for $1.40, I didn't think USO had a chance to trade here.

On 08/01/08 when USO traded $102.24, thought it a growing possibility (see DXY/FXY) and closed for $0.75.

Tense close/settle for oil today.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 12:25:47 PM

USO $90.89 -1.99% ... those IYS-TO are $2.15 x $2.25.

just more than 3.5 hours to expiration.

Keene Little : 8/15/2008 12:25:04 PM

I've been showing charts of silver (YI, September contract) this week and the last chart I showed yesterday ( Link ) I pointed out the need for a 5th wave down to finish the decline from the July high (happened faster than I thought it would). This morning we got that move and the 5th wave achieved equality with the 1st wave at 12.392 (this morning's low so far is 12.172) and the leg down from July can now be considered complete.

If you're playing the short side of the metals now is the time to protect profits. The 5-wave move down, unless it extends lower, should set up a rally next week to at least correct the decline from July. More bullishly the large 3-wave pullback from March is now complete and the metals will rally to new annual highs from here. Nibbling on the long side (which is counter trend so be careful) could work well into next week until we see what kind of bounce develops. Updated daily chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 12:22:26 PM

Most Actives ... SPY $129.74 +0.15%, QQQQ $48.20 -0.10%, XLF $21.16 -0.23%, C $18.29 +1.16%, BAC $30.48 +0.99% (made $, going to lose some $ at today's expire), CSCO $25.08 +1.66%, MSFT $27.79 -0.42%, INTC $24.38 +0.08%, JPM $37.50 -0.81%, GE $29.85 +1.11%

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 12:19:29 PM

TRIN now 0.65, bouncing from support. It has now closed a 15-minute period above the 15-minute 9-ema, the first time today, but it's coming right back down to retest it. That 15-minute 9-ema is now at 0.63. Equity bulls don't want to see this bounce continue. See my 11:15 and 11:43 posts for the significance of this bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 12:17:08 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 12:12:55 PM

RUT -0.38% ... slips red. Set to test DAILY Pivot.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 12:04:11 PM

Potentially strong support for the OEX on 15-minute closes at 596.45-597.36, and, on 30-minute ones, at 594.03-594.75. OEX at 598.06 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 11:50:21 AM

SPX 1,296.64 +0.28% ... still "in the zone" QRTRLY 38.2%(1,291) and MONTHLY Pivot (1,300.46).

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 11:48:48 AM

After falling this week to test the 0.92-0.94 potential support I've been mentioning for quite a while, the TED spread has bounced today to 1.00, with a updated value on my delayed feed now at 0.99. Equity bulls don't want to see it push above 1.00 and stay there now. This isn't great for timing trades and I don't use it that way, but I certainly want to see if the TED spread is more likely to drop back eventually toward its more typical 0.10-0.50 range prior to last August, or if it's going to expand wildly, as it did then, with the fear of defaults swamping markets.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 11:43:58 AM

The TRIN is 0.56, near the level I mentioned in my earlier post, also near potentially significant support. Bears hoping that the TRIN will bounce as it did on 8/12 while equities turn over want to see the TRIN first produce 5-minute closes above 0.58, an early and tentative sign of a change in tenor, and then want to see consistent 15-minute closes above 0.61, also an early and tentative sign of a change in tenor but a little more trustworthy. Equity bulls, of course, don't want to see either of those happen, especially the 15-minute closes above the resistance there. However, they should keep a watch, because as I noted in my earlier report on TRIN, the support that the TRIN tests today is sometimes significant support.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 11:40:25 AM

SPX Heavyweights (at 08/11/08 Open sort order thow in the GSG Link

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 11:39:10 AM

After the RUT's ugly first 30-minute candle (my 9:59:16 post), the RUT has been closing all 30-minute periods beneath potential resistance on 30-minute closes now at 756.72, but it's still retesting it. The next change in tenor for the RUT would require consistent 30-minute closes beneath a line now at 753.28. This would again erase its breakout status. RUT at 754.84 as I type, between these support and resistance levels.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 11:37:52 AM

If they don't, they become the Amaranth's of the world.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 11:37:33 AM

EXCELLENT! You tell them RICK!

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 11:36:34 AM

Dorsey's BPCHEMical reversed back up to "bull confirmed" yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 11:36:15 AM

DOW $35.10 +0.60% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 11:35:58 AM

DD $45.64 +0.88% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 11:35:38 AM

DD and DOW ... remember their earnigns reports! They RAISED prices just a month ago! There inputs are FALLING.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 11:35:42 AM

The RUT's ongoing test of its 6/05/08 high of 763.27, slightly exceeded by this morning's 764.38 intraday high, still goes on but has so far been met by a pullback in the RUT. The day is far from over, of course. Because I can't get volume for the RUT on my charts, of course, I've turned to the IWM to study price when compared to price action. While I'm far from expert at volume/price-spread analysis, I do use it when making decisions on any directional trades I might undertake. Here's what I see: Link The caveat to this is that the RUT (also IWM, of course) has been on a tear and momentum can still carry it higher. Big money could be just stepping out of partial positions, locking in profits. I certainly would have been, if I'd been long a lot of RUT positions and it was approaching a previous swing high. (Actually, on second thought, that's exactly what I did, stepping out of my SEP RUT bull put spreads and locking in my profit on them.) The RUT (and IWM) can burn off overbought conditions by moving sideways while that 10-sma and the lower trendline play catchup, rising up underneath it.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 11:33:23 AM

SPX 1,299.71 +0.52% ... Half full? Half empty?

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 11:32:31 AM

Yes, yes ... you're on the right track.

The cost of inputs for other companies (see CRB index) has eased in recent weeks.

Crunch those numbers as margins improve. Long the SPY and next quarter looks MUCH different.

Consumer and investor sentiment MUCH different.

Think ahead and be ready to take profits once others figure it out.

Monitor internals.

Keene Little : 8/15/2008 11:32:02 AM

Today's price pattern is maintaining a bullish bias but I'm left wondering if we've seen most of the price action we're going to see for today (it could end up just being a doji kind of day). If we're to see 1325 by early next week the last leg up within the SPX pattern is likely to be very choppy and could chew up a lot of time without making much headway. It will frustrate bears trying to get short so stay patient and by all means be careful about picking tops.

Jane Fox : 8/15/2008 11:31:05 AM

Linda, no had not mentioned the TRIN today but your comment reminded me to look at it. 0.55 is quite bullish as are the other internals. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 11:24:33 AM

VLO $34.12 +0.55% ...

TSO $18.03 +1.57% ... has reversed losses.

Remember ... "crack spread" here.

Think more of "short oil, long unleaded" type of trade. Just want the crack spread or the margin to rise.

If both oil and unleaded price FALLS, just want oil to fall at greater percentage than unleaded.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 11:18:48 AM

AU's PnF Chart ... with 10-week trading bands (Top, Med, Bot). Bearish vertical count column is the O's from $39 to $29. Link

Remember the S. African power outage "news" from February.

See MM as SWC action at the time.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 11:17:26 AM

VIX printed a lower low; VXO did not, at least not yet. VIX has been producing bullish value/RSI divergences on the last two new lows, so keep this on your radar screen. It's proof of nothing yet except that you should pay attention.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 11:15:48 AM

Jane may have already mentioned TRIN today. It's 0.54 as I type, a bullish number to be certain. However, it's also at potentially significant support, now at a hair below 0.53 on 15-minute closes. The TRIN may not bounce from this support: it hasn't yet although it's been mostly holding to it on 15-minute closes. All it has to do is trend sideways for the tenor to remain bullish. However, TRIN can and does sometimes bounce from this support, as it did the morning of 8/12, when this particularly support line was at a higher level, then near 0.71. That morning was the last time TRIN tested this particular Keltner line. Bears want the TRIN to rise now from this support as it did that day, while bulls want the TRIN to just move sideways or even float down with the support that will be pushed down if TRIN doesn't manage a bounce. Bears need TRIN to rise fairly soon, though, or the bullish tenor might be too well established to be undone.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 11:13:56 AM

PRECious Metals ... Weekly Distribution Link

Note: AU

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 11:07:55 AM

In your sector bell curve ... look for "lower case" but near 0.00% for short/put canidates.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 11:06:32 AM

BPPREC was at 11.91% at last night's close. VERY weak but VERY OVERSOLD.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 11:04:35 AM

SLV $12.79 -9.03% ...

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 11:04:20 AM

The OEX is approaching potentially strong resistance that's now stretched up to 601.56 on 10-minute closes, 601.66 on 15-minute ones. OEX at 599.93 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 11:03:50 AM

AU $26.50 -3.53% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 11:03:27 AM

HUI.X 313.10 -4.35% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 11:02:49 AM

GLD $76.68

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 11:02:20 AM

GLD's YRLY Pivot $75.25 ... WKLY S2 was exhausted at $80.13.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 11:01:04 AM

GLD $76.83 -3.17% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 10:59:53 AM

USO $90.23 -2.70% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 10:59:33 AM

Oil traders alert! ... Remember ... Sep futures expiration is Wednesday 08/20/08.

Here was OI Link

Not sure if Jim Brown noted.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 10:55:28 AM

OK ... first thought here is that WB will either have to issue debt, or equity in order to buy back $8.5 billion. Will go back and check balance sheet.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 10:54:36 AM

DJ- NY Attorney General: Wachovia to pay $50M in cival penalties

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 10:53:52 AM

DJ- NY Attorney General: Wachovia to buy back more than $8.5 billion in ARS

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 10:53:02 AM

Swing trade put establish stop alert! ... for the one (1) LONG Wachovia WB Sep 20 Put (WB-UD) at $17.50 in the underlying.

This is the LONG put from 08/04/08 entry.

You may also own a SOLD COVERED WB-UR from 8/13/08 entry.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 10:50:18 AM

DJ- Mo. Settlement follows July 17 Securities Probe of Wachovia headquarters.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 10:49:10 AM

DJ via CNBC - Wachovia ... "Multibillion-dollar"

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 10:48:51 AM

OEX bulls should be particularly careful as the OEX approaches 600.80-601.35, as many types of potential resistance can be found in that zone, including Fib, Keltner and historical. OEX at 599.24 as I type. It's possible we'll get the usual quiet opex Friday style of trading, but if potential support near 593.77 should give way and no quick bounce back above it occur, or if the 601.40-ish resistance should give way and there not be a quick reversal back below it, the day could quickly grow more exciting. It might not be any more predictable, however, so keep on your toes.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 10:48:23 AM

DJ via CNBC - Wachovia, Missouri Secy of State To Settle Claims Over Auction-Rate Securities

Jane Fox : 8/15/2008 10:46:05 AM

Crude is now trading at $111.57 so I am out of my USO calls. It may find support here but I'm not going to be taking any chances. I need Crude to prove to me it is worthy of my money.

Jane Fox : 8/15/2008 10:41:37 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Led by an increase in motor vehicles, the output of U.S. factories rose 0.4% in July, the best gain in 10 months, the Federal Reserve reported Friday.

Overall, industrial production at the nation's factories, mines and utilities increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2%, as expected, despite a 1.9% drop in output of utilities.

Output of mines increased 0.9% in July.

June's industrial production was revised lower to a 0.4% increase. Industrial production has now risen two months in a row, after having fallen the previous four months. Read the full report.

Industrial production is one of the four major monthly economic indicators used by economists to judge whether the economy's in recession.

After peaking in January, output is down 0.1% in the past year. Manufacturing output is down 1.1% in the past year.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 10:40:53 AM

Today's Global Econ. Calendar Link

Week's Calendar Link

Keene Little : 8/15/2008 10:40:21 AM

The bounce off this morning's pullback now makes it look like the sideways consolidation from yesterday is continuing. That supports a higher move out of it, keeping alive the possibility for a rally into early next week. Bottom line is that we're chopping up and down and until uptrend lines start breaking the bulls remain in control. A move back above this morning's high would clearly be bullish and that would maintain the potential for an SPX rally to the 1325 area. So I'm just watching now to see what price tells us.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 10:38:18 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Note: It would take a closing measure of 40.00% or higher for the NASDAQ's 10-day NH/NL ratio to issue a "buy signal".

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 10:32:36 AM

Wachovia subsidiary asks for protection: report ... MarketWatch story Link ... not sure if this is it. I'm on the phone.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 10:31:37 AM

Chop for the OEX between support on 15-minute closes at 596.27 and resistance on 15-minute closes at 601.03? It could happen.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 10:31:19 AM

CNBC mentioning something about Wachovia (WB) $16.19 +2.40% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 10:25:17 AM

Be very, very careful if short the Q's

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 10:23:51 AM

The A/D line closed the last 10- and 15-minute periods below what had been potential support, now at 85-175. Unless the A/D line can quickly reverse, it's setting a potential downside target near -425 and perhaps lower. I would watch for that potential support to kick in, however, if the A/D line closely approaches -425. It's -137 as I type. Unfortunately, the VIX's behavior is complicating an interpretation, as it jumped higher but is falling to retest support. So far, nearest support is holding, however, so I wouldn't consider it as refuting the A/D line's evidence yet. VIX at 20.25 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 10:21:36 AM

If USO does what GLD did then ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 10:21:11 AM

SSO $62.45 +0.11% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 10:20:16 AM

XNG.X 560.53 -2.28% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 10:19:55 AM

OIX.X 774.71 -3.12% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 10:19:10 AM

Swing trade bearish call alert! ... for one (1) of the ProShares Ultra Short Oil/Gas DUG Sep $42 Calls (DUG-IP) at the offer of $2.10.

DUG $38.71 +4.91% ...

Keene Little : 8/15/2008 10:15:43 AM

I'm watching now to see if the sharp decline turns into an impulsive move (needs one more push lower after the little bounce here) as it would confirm the reversal after this morning's high. The significance of the reversal is that we may have seen the final high for the bounce off the July 15th low, at least for the techs. Right now NDX is finding support at its uptrend line from August 4th so the bulls are still in control here (but I'm thinking they're losing it).

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 10:16:30 AM

This is a note I added to the play list last night when substituting for James: Today the VIX declined to test a rising trendline off the 5/19 low, also testing historical support/resistance in the 20.00 zone as well as the 6/17 low of 20.02, the 6/25 low of 20.34, the 8/05 low of 20.06, and the 8/11 low of 19.66. With some charts suggesting that it could dip toward 19.70 and then rebound, the VIX looks ready to either rebound or fall through what may be significant support. In this environment, we're holding off adding new trades.

I felt last night and still feel that we could be on the cusp of something big, but big which direction? Keep the VIX on your radar screen. It's not always a good market-timing tool, but it could be ready to move big one direction or the other. On intraday charts, the VIX is moving in a broadening formation, so be wary of a quick dip below 20.00 that then catches support and rises. The VIX is currently 20.48, having gapped higher after the UofM numbers but coming back to retest that gap.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 10:09:52 AM

The A/D line has of course turned back sharply, too. It's at -84 as I type, testing potential support on 15-minute closes near 86. Remember that it can bounce sharply again, back to that level, but, if not, it's setting a potential downside target of -450.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 10:07:53 AM

USO Alert! $90.79 -2.10% ... has seen trade at Q S1. (See Wednesday's Chart of the Week)

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 10:07:34 AM

Sorry, Jane. I know you usually report the economic numbers, but I'm typing so fast this morning and trying to watch everything that I just got over eager! And, just think, before the market opened, I reminded myself to just slow down today!

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 10:06:14 AM

The OEX is turning back from its test of the top of its right-shoulder formation, but it will take a break through potentially strong support now near 593.69 on 30-minute closes before we can believe yet that we're going to see a neckline test. For now, as disturbing (but oddly routine these days) quick reversal of the early gains might be, it's just chopping around as the right shoulder forms with neither a confirmation of the formation nor an invalidation of it.

Jane Fox : 8/15/2008 10:04:53 AM

Aug. UMich consumer sentiment 61.7 vs. 62

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 10:01:04 AM

Preliminary UofM Consumer Sentiment is 61.7, slightly below the forecast 62 and slightly above the previous 61.2. Inflation expectations were 4.8%, down from the prior 5.1%.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 10:00:13 AM

Potential resistance for the OEX at 600.47 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 9:59:38 AM

SPX 1,300

OEX 599.46

INDU 11,690 ... call it 700

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 9:59:16 AM

Although it's not a guarantee of anything, the RUT is leaving an ugly, ugly candle on its 30-minute chart at the top of a climb. The RUT would have to break below and stay below potential support at 756.76 before there's even a minor change in tenor, however. RUT at 760.34. Just be aware of what you're seeing if you're in bullish trades and review your just-in-case profit-protecting stops.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2008 9:58:51 AM

VIX.X 20.20 -0.68% ...

VXO.X 22.50 +1.76% ...

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 9:56:27 AM

Bigger pullback now in the OEX, which is a bit ominous since it's coming from a right-shoulder resistance test, but it's not over yet. Remain on your toes, now. OEX at 598.66.

Keene Little : 8/15/2008 9:55:47 AM

The one thing to be cautious about this morning is that we could see a rally soon peter out and reverse. The NDX pattern looks like it could complete with this morning's rally and has a Fib projection target at 1977-1980 for a possible top. There's a higher Fib target near 1990 but I don't think it will make it that high (famous last words). But with this morning's rally now getting NDX above yesterday's high it has now met the minimums to be considered complete and that sets it up for the start of a big decline. 60-min chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 9:54:58 AM

The OEX did not break out above the potential Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes that's now at 600.37 although it did pierce it during the first 15-minute period. Further confirming that there was no breakout and that the resistance held, the OEX is back below that potential resistance, although it's perhaps being parked there ahead of the UofM numbers. As I've been warning all morning, please decide ahead of that release, in just a couple of minutes, whether you want to hold all positions open because it could move markets either direction. The A/D line is also being parked at what might be strong resistance, ready to either keel over or break through to new levels.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 9:49:28 AM

I know some of our subscribers were probably in AUG RUT 760/770 bear call spreads. At least, I believe that was the one mentioned. I hope the settlement number isn't too hard on you today and just wanted to offer sympathy. I had to exit the remainder of my own RUT bear call spreads, a different one, earlier this week. If you don't feel that you handled the exit well, then instead of feeling shame, use this experience as a springboard to finding an exit strategy that works for you, both when the spreads are going well and when they're not. Go to CBOE's webinars and you'll find some ideas to consider.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 9:46:40 AM

Remember that this is pre-UofM numbers, but here's what's happening on the A/D line when viewed on a Keltner chart: The A/D line made its first prints in the upper or bullish half of its Keltner channels. It's now risen to test potential Keltner resistance that gave it some trouble all day yesterday, first serving as resistance, then as support when the A/D line finally broke above it. That's at about +880 on 10-minute closes. The A/D line is above it as I type, but it did provide resistance through the first 10-minute close and could still on this 10-minute close, too. The A/D line is 984 as I type. In other words, as we move closer toward the UofM numbers, the A/D line is still dealing with potentially strong resistance. Equity bulls should be careful here, but if the A/D line succeeds in breaking out, it has a next upside target of about +1400, a potential upside target.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 9:38:28 AM

There goes the OEX up toward the next potential resistance on 15-minute closes, now bumped up to 600.15, with lighter resistance at the OEX's current 598.86 level, just below an important Fib level at 598.97. In other words, as suggested in my 9:04 post this morning, the OEX is rising toward the top of the right shoulder in a possible H&S formation seen on its 10-day intraday charts, but with potential Keltner resistance confirming the top-of-the-shoulder resistance, too. Remain a bit skeptical about the rise today and please remain aware of the very important UofM numbers to be released at 9:55 am ET. They can completely change the tenor of the trading; for example, after the morning's rise, they could curve the OEX down toward the neckline of that H&S or they could send the OEX soaring, invalidating the formation for once and for all. As I typed, the OEX moved up to 599.49.

Keene Little : 8/15/2008 9:36:20 AM

So far we've got a little bounce started right after the open and that confirms the setup from yesterday afternoon's corrective pullback. Look for the move higher to continue unless yesterday afternoon's lows are now taken out.

Jane Fox : 8/15/2008 9:33:42 AM

AD line opens at a neutral +363.

Jane Fox : 8/15/2008 9:27:34 AM

Spectacular recovery in the US$ and is the #1 reason Gold has been taken to the woodshed. Link

Jane Fox : 8/15/2008 9:08:17 AM

Gold fell to below $800 overnight. Who would have ever thunk?? Link

Jane Fox : 8/15/2008 9:18:54 AM

Crude was certainly not strong overnight and the only thing I can say about it is that it didn't break support. I am long USO calls and have a stop just under the August 12th lows. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2008 9:04:02 AM

When I say, as I've said often lately, that anything at all can happen, I'm absolutely not being too lazy or indecisive to make a prediction. Even a casual glance shows the OEX zigzagging almost viciously from side to side of its rising wedge shape on its daily chart. This week has seen the upper boundary violated intraday but holding by the close and, yesterday, the lower boundary violated intraday but holding by the close, so a break out of that narrowing rising wedge will come soon. It could come from any direction.

The most docile form of breakout would be a sideways trending that appears at first to break the lower trendline but then results in no steep decline, with a resultant steep decline typical of a breakdown out of a rising wedge. Such breakdowns sometimes are seen when a well-defined and long-in-place wedge is broken, support catches and nothing more than a reformulation into a regular old rising channel occurs. We've seen this happen, and that possibility is the reason that I've been warning that bears should temper their excitement if the OEX breaks down out of that channel. Support could catch, perhaps at the 30-sma now at 582.53, perhaps lower, at 570. The daily Keltner chart suggests the possibility of a rather quick drop down toward that 30-sma and perhaps a little lower, to 579-579.50, but they don't yet predict what happens next.

Upside breaks through the upper boundary, now at about 608.50, should also at first be treated with some skepticism, as this week's should have been, with stops adjusted frequently, but such breaks out of supposedly bearish rising wedges have sometimes in the past been accompanied by swift rises as startled bears help fuel rises. That swift rise could take the OEX rather quickly up to the bottom of the 612.60-619.24 level that the daily Keltner charts now suggest as next resistance in case of a rise.

What do short-term charts suggest? Ten-day intraday charts show a possibility that's ominous for bulls, although it's not trustworthy as a prediction. It serves only as a warning to bulls not to become too complacent: the OEX is forming a head-and-shoulders formation, with the OEX currently curving over from the second shoulder. For that reason, bulls want to see the OEX zoom well above its afternoon high of 600.66 and stay there, invalidating the formation if it gets high enough above the current tip of the right shoulder. The 15-minute chart, however, shows potentially strong resistance on 15-minute closes now near 599.89, so it's not clear at all, even if futures stay as positive as they are as this is written, that the OEX can clear that resistance on 15-minute closes and then sustain values above it. The 15-minute chart setup shows that if the OEX drops and sustains 30-minute closes beneath 593.98, it risks a quick drop down toward 590.58-590.27, which would constitute a near test of the head-and-shoulders neckline.

The current level of futures above fair values suggests that the OEX may rise up toward the top of that shoulder and the test of the Keltner resistance near there, but futures' values still have plenty of time to change, especially with Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization coming only 15 minutes before the open. Whatever happens in earliest trading, please factor into your trading plan the fact that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations, very important numbers these days, come in at 9:55 am ET, and they can completely change the tenor of trading. For example, if the OEX does rise to test the top of that right shoulder and sits there into the UofM number, evaluate whether you want to hold all positions over into that number. Ditto if the OEX should drop to test the neckline.

Jane Fox : 8/15/2008 8:59:56 AM

Here is a daily chart of the SPX. Yesterday I stated that I thought this market could easily get to 1320. Will that happen today? Probably not but next week there is a very good chance. Link

Jane Fox : 8/15/2008 8:53:34 AM

The overnight markets were cautiously bullish after the modest upturn in the Empire state gauge. Link

Jane Fox : 8/15/2008 8:42:34 AM

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Michael Phelps won a sixth gold at the Beijing Games, finishing first in the 200 meter individual medley in world-record time Friday.

Jane Fox : 8/15/2008 8:42:04 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Manufacturers in New York state said business improved slightly in early August, the New York Federal Reserve Bank reported Friday. The Empire state index rose to 2.8 in August from negative 4.9 in July. Readings over zero indicate more businesses said business conditions improved than said they worsened. The index had been below zero for five of the previous six months. The new-orders index fell to negative 2.2 and the shipments index fell to negative 0.9. The price indexes remained elevated.

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