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Jeff Bailey : 9/10/2008 2:03:10 AM

YM +54 at 11,301

Jeff Bailey : 9/10/2008 2:02:04 AM

cl08v +$0.63, or 0.61% at $103.89.

Jeff Bailey : 9/10/2008 2:01:01 AM

OPEC to curb output ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/10/2008 1:59:03 AM

OPEC: Returns production quotas to Sep'07 level.
New production quota 28.8 Mln B/D Vs. 29.67 previously.
To take effect in next 40 days.

Jeff Bailey : 9/10/2008 12:54:16 AM


Theme looks to be foreign and income

Jeff Bailey : 9/10/2008 12:49:12 AM

Sector Break Down 52-week High/Low from Dorsey/Wright Link

Retailing and Banks showing modest bullish leadership. Healthcare 7 NH, but 17 NL.

Precious Metals, Oil, Non Ferrous Metals continue to get slapped.

Jeff Bailey : 9/10/2008 12:33:31 AM

NYSE churned another heavy session of 7.39 billion.

NASDAQ light at 1.73 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 9/10/2008 12:08:23 AM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/10/2008 12:06:13 AM

NYSE a/d 362:2,748 ... NH/NL 45:275
NASDAQ a/d 560:2,328 ... NH/NL 55:177
AMEX a/d 328:880 ... NH/NL 16:134
BB a/d 334:766 ... NH/NL 128:275

Would equate to about total a/d 1,584:6,722 with NH/NL 244:861

While I was out last week, I was able to get the more important NYSE and NASDAQ internals (separated) for all days except Thursday (09/04/08) and I'm trying to get an "estimate" of what last Thursday's NYSE and NASDAQ internals were. Similar PRICE action today.

According to last Thursday's wrap, TOTAL a/d was 1,425:6,058 with NH/NL 80:568.

AMEX and BB littered with penny stocks and not overly meaningful.

TOTAL's are great for Wilshire 5000 though. 12,476.62 -3.45% today. 5DyNet% -4.49%; 20DyNet% -5.99% and YrNet% -14.86%

Keene Little : 9/9/2008 10:49:57 PM

Wednesday's pivot table: Link

The price pattern for SPX supports the idea that we'll see a stair-stepping lower, possibly into a low on Thursday followed by another larger bounce before selling off into opex. At least that's the way it looks from a bearish perspective. The bullish possibility is that the pullback from Monday's high is only a 3-wave move so far and therefore could be just an a-b-c pullback which will lead to another rally leg (about 1285 for an upside target). Both are shown on the 30-min chart: Link

Following the techs has been a good way to trade this market so I continue to watch NDX for leadership. Its 120-min chart shows the parallel down-channel it's been in and until broken we should follow the trend as it works its way lower in a wave count that also supports the idea we'll see a low into opex (perhaps around 1600). Link

But just under 1700 is the bottom of a larger parallel down-channel for price action since June, shown on the daily chart: Link . The wave pattern calls for at least a bounce off that level and it could turn into something more bullish for a run up to about 1800 which is why I'll watch the trend lines on the 120-min chart carefully.

OI Technical Staff : 9/9/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Keene Little : 9/9/2008 4:34:41 PM

For tomorrow we should see a little consolidation similar to what we saw between 11:00 AM and 1:00 PM today and then another leg lower. It should stair-step lower through tomorrow and I expect to see Friday's lows broken by all the major indices.

Jane Fox : 9/9/2008 4:05:38 PM

Crude making a daily low at $101.81. May be a good time to go long Crude but I will need a little more confirmation before I do.

Keene Little : 9/9/2008 4:05:31 PM

The DOW is now less than 10 points away from its gap closure (11223).

Jane Fox : 9/9/2008 3:55:42 PM

AD line is now a very bearish -2384.

Linda Piazza : 9/9/2008 3:53:32 PM

Here we go. What about end-of-day decisions for OEX traders? Obviously, today's action was bearish with the body of today's candle totally engulfing yesterday's. The OEX has dropped below the gap level, too, so that gap support didn't hold, but there's the possibility that short covering could spring it back up into rather than below that gap by the end of the day. One intraday chart sets a potential downside target of 566.30-567 and another, 562-563, and a daily chart has maintained a downside target much lower, at 553. That's the background, but you absolutely must be aware that these markets are volatile and can turn around on a dime. As I type, the OEX is cents from the 9/04 close but look what's happened in the intervening three trading days! Take a look at those charts, think about the profit that you have and how much risk you have and make decisions about whether you want to hold overnight in this market climate.

I believe the OEX has vulnerability to 553, but will it get there straight away without some violent gyrations? That, I don't have a clue about.

Linda Piazza : 9/9/2008 3:47:52 PM

Barring a quick bounce back above and sustained values back above 572.35, the OEX is now setting that downside target near 567. The OEX is 572.15 as I type.

Keene Little : 9/9/2008 3:46:16 PM

The move down today looks like a 3-wave move but I think it's a 1-2-3 rather than an a-b-c. It means we should soon consolidate near the lows which will then be followed by another leg down. That could have us testing Friday's low (for SPX) tomorrow. NDX has already broken Friday's low and I suspect the rest of the market will follow. The failure of yesterday's rally has essentially been confirmed.

Linda Piazza : 9/9/2008 3:45:52 PM

What scheduled events or releases will be occurring on foreign bourses this evening and tomorrow morning before our markets open? Yesterday's U.K. NIESR GDP estimate was rescheduled to 7:01 pm ET tonight. Japan's CGPI, a measure of how the prices of goods have changed, is released at 7:50 pm ET. Japan's Current Account will be released at the same time, with Leading Indicators being released at 1:00 am ET tomorrow morning. The ECB's President Jean-Claude Trichet speaks tomorrow morning at 3:00 am ET, testifying before the Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in Brussels. That could be a particularly market moving event, and it follows a couple of numbers from France at 2:45 am ET. France's economy is not as important to the eurozone as is Germany's, but the confluence of numbers and Trichet's speech could roil the currency and futures markets. The U.K.'s Trade Balance follows at 4:30 am ET, and Canada's Labor Productivity follows at 8:30 am ET.

Linda Piazza : 9/9/2008 3:23:28 PM

The OEX hasn't quite dropped to the 572.35 zone, but it's gotten close. As it's done so, it's testing potential support on 15-minute closes at about 573.25, the current level of the OEX as I type. If the OEX should sustain 15-minute closes beneath this, as it's done for the just-completed 15-minute period and if it breaks below 572.35, then the potential 567 target is set. Bears should continue updating their just-in-case profit-protecting plans as this support is tested.

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 3:09:09 PM

Lehman Bros. (LEH) $7.89 -44% ... came "close" to the $7.50 strike.

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 3:08:05 PM

S&P: Mulls Lehman ratings cut on uncertainty for raising capital.

Tab Gilles : 9/9/2008 3:07:06 PM

Apple (AAPL)$151.20 - $6.75 Steven Jobs quoted on CNBC that "hedge funds" are to be blamed for spreading rumors of his health. He said he could gain 10 lbs. but that he is healthy. Link

Jane Fox : 9/9/2008 3:03:56 PM

All yesterday?s gains have been wiped out and it looks like all the gains from Friday may be as well. Link

Tab Gilles : 9/9/2008 3:01:47 PM

Support levels as highlighted Sept. 8th...

DJIA Link SPX Link OEX Link COMPQ Link NDX Link RUT Link NYA Link WLSH Link

James Brown : 9/9/2008 2:55:46 PM

Exit Alert! Lehman Brothers (LEH) strangle.

Hi! I want to poke my head into the monitor here.

Any readers in our LEH strangle may want to exit today. The stock is down 38.6% to $8.66, hitting new multi-year lows.

The September $10.00 put (LYH-UB) is trading around $3.20. I would suggest readers exit now.

The alternative, if you think LEH will sink to new lows again tomorrow, is to hang on but I would add a stop loss to exit if the put hits your breakeven point.

Linda Piazza : 9/9/2008 2:56:18 PM

The OEX dipped a little deeper than 574 (my 2:29:59 post). The A/D line has now dropped closer to the potential downside target now at almost -2400, but it hasn't quite hit it yet. Just remember that it might be getting close to support and that, if it bounces strongly, equities likely will, too. I suggest that bears keep lowering their just-in-case profit-protecting stops, while beginning to think about possible vulnerability to 572.35 and maybe even 567. I don't see this as a high-odds bullish entry, although of course in this climate, the OEX could bounce strongly. Actually, as I've been mentioning over the last week, the OEX has a potential downside target on the daily chart at 553, but I wouldn't expect to be reached in one fell swoop, if it's reached at all. It's just part of the background that should be considered.

Jane Fox : 9/9/2008 2:54:57 PM

Crude's low so far today is $102.20 and I think it is making a bottom. I have no idea how far it will bounce but I think it will rally before it falls much further.

Tab Gilles : 9/9/2008 2:50:30 PM

Volatility rising...

$VIX Link

$VXN Link

$RVX Link

Linda Piazza : 9/9/2008 2:29:59 PM

The target and potential support on 10-minute closes for the OEX is now 575.94. Begin factoring in vulnerability to 574.

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 2:29:28 PM

NYSE a/d 595:2,465

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 2:29:12 PM

TRIN 1.08 ... looking like a major go out at/near lows of session.

Keene Little : 9/9/2008 2:28:17 PM

While the techs have been weaker than the blue chips I am noticing a bullish divergence on the 30 and 60-min charts at yesterday's and today's lows as compared to the low on Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 2:25:42 PM

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $40.73 -4.70% ...

Keene Little : 9/9/2008 2:25:12 PM

The a-b-c bounce (which was unable to achieve 1254 so it was weaker than expected) has now led to a breakdown and we've got 1239 (62% retracement) within a stone's throw. I don't think it will hold as the price pattern is turning more bearish here but watch it for possible support and a reversal back up.

Jane Fox : 9/9/2008 2:25:09 PM

Crude may be making a bottom here. MACD is not making a new low today and if it is able to cross up then we have a bullish divergence, the first since Crude started its unprecedented fall into the abyss. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 2:24:51 PM

Almost a "round tripper" with WKLY S1 at $32.88. Session low has been $33.02

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 2:23:20 PM

UNG's WKLY R1 $35.17 ... session high so far has been, been, been $35.18.

Jane Fox : 9/9/2008 2:21:43 PM

Here is a very good example of the VIX telling you the S&P futures were going lower. The top chart is the VIX and notice (Blue box) where it is making a new daily high but ES did not make a new daily low. Notice where ES is now. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 2:21:26 PM

USO $84.07 -2.16% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 2:21:14 PM

UNG $35.15 +0.60% ... inches green. Not many tankers sitting off Florida.

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 2:18:01 PM

MMS: 77.5% oil; 64.8% gas output still off line in Gulf

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 2:17:17 PM

MMS: 1,007,389 B/D oil; 4,795 MMCF/D gas off line in Gulf.

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 2:16:38 PM

US Nat. Gas Fund (UNG) $34.77 -0.48% ... made a run for unchanged on MMS update.

Tab Gilles : 9/9/2008 2:15:24 PM

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $40.45 -$2.26 (5.3%) Link

Chesapeake Energy's CEO, Aubrey McClendon, has been a huge buyer of his company's stock. Link Link

$NATGAS is currently trading at $7.50 down 3 cents.

Finding support at $7.00. Link

PnF PO of $16.50 Link

Interesting news on Nat Gas... Link

Nat Gas is cheap relative to crude oil. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 2:05:08 PM

Wachovia (WB) $16.71 -12.00% ... has backfilled yesterday's gap higher.

Linda Piazza : 9/9/2008 2:02:30 PM

The TED spread, according to my delayed feed, is 1.16, its high of the day, and well above Friday's 1.04 lows. I mentioned yesterday that the TED spread wasn't acting as if the threat of default had eased with the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac deals, and today it's testing the 8/06 high. That shows the possibility that it could break out of the consolidation zone in which it's been moving since the middle of August. It looks to me as if it's been creating a broadening formation since the middle of August, so it's not as easy as saying that a move above the 8/06 close of 1.16 would constitute an upside breakout, but a sustained move above 1.16 would still not a good thing if one is bullish equities. That action would threaten a push back toward the July highs, and we know what was happening to equities while the TED spread was rising into July's high.

Once again, I don't use this as a market-timing tool, but I do use it to give me a little bit of background about the markets.

Linda Piazza : 9/9/2008 1:53:31 PM

The A/D line is currently -1896, with vulnerability down to -2350. That vulnerability would change, however, if it begins sustaining 10-minute closes above about -1450. Be aware that the A/D line, while showing some vulnerability to lower levels, is already approaching potentially strong support, so be on the lookout for bounce potential beginning any time. This is not a suggestion that bulls should plow into new trades as we see the A/D line move into breakdown mode sometimes just as we do equities. It's just time to start watching for that bounce potential and adjusting your just-in-case profit-protecting plans if in bearish positions.

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 1:52:07 PM

YM 11,371 -1.16% ... session low and sets up for test of WKLY Pivot/DAILY S1 correlation.

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 1:50:42 PM

TRIN 1.06

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 1:50:12 PM

By my "not sure what" had TRIN dropping, I mean I can't find a clue.

Pickup in buy-side volume had TRIN dropping quickly, but can't find out why.

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 1:48:18 PM

NYSE a/d 670:2,364

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 1:46:32 PM

LEH $9.58 -32.29% ... couldn't do more than 50% dynamic.

Linda Piazza : 9/9/2008 1:46:15 PM

For reference again, yesterday's OEX low was 576.98.

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 1:45:36 PM

Not sure just "what" had TRIN dropping from 1.20 to 1.00 at the 01:00 PM tick.

TRIN 1.03 ...

Linda Piazza : 9/9/2008 1:36:37 PM

The OEX again looks vulnerable to 577.80 or perhaps even 576.30, where there might be support on 10-minute closes. As I've said several times today, in this kind of chop, you can't always count on targets being fulfilled, but just be aware of the potential for the OEX to drop there . . . after the bounce perhaps stopped out some scalpers. This is chop.

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 1:32:09 PM

NYSE Comp 8,045 -1.51% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 1:31:33 PM

TRIN Alert! 1.00

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 1:29:04 PM

Chevron (CVX) $81.09 +0.04% ... inches green. Only "energy" related stock in my watch list to do so.

Linda Piazza : 9/9/2008 1:14:39 PM

Just about the time I made my 12:10 post listing possible downside targets begin set, the OEX began stabilizing and then bouncing with the consolidation zone in which it spent the middle part of yesterday's trading session. There's still potential resistance on 30-minute closes at 580.60, at 581.70 and, potentially stronger, at 583.45. Any one of them could stall this climb. This is just chop and not yet a resolution of the chop, at least in my opinion. On the daily chart, the strong downturn from the converging 10- and 30-sma's and the former triangle's supporting trendline presents the possibility of a kiss-goodbye test of that converging resistance, but it isn't proof of anything much yet.

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 1:07:51 PM

Lehman Bros. (LEH) $10.29 -27.42% ... CNBC reporting company considering pre-announcing 3Q earnings Tuesday.

Keene Little : 9/9/2008 1:06:53 PM

The bounce off this morning's low is now looking like it could achieve two equal legs up in an a-b-c kind of move. Equality would be at 1254.46, close to a 38% retracement of this morning's decline (1254.83). If the a-b-c bounce is followed by new daily lows we could see SPX slice through the 1239-1243 zone as the selling picks up speed.

But if price chops up and down and works its way lower in a flag pattern from yesterday's high, as shown on the 30-min chart, it would be bullish for another rally leg. A rally back up to 1263 could be part of the flag pattern as it calls for another up-down move before it would be ready for the next rally leg. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 12:55:46 PM

EIA: China '09 oil use seen up 5.0%, after 5.8% rise in '08

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 12:47:16 PM

Raytheon (RTN) $61.34 +0.70% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 12:46:09 PM

Lockheed Martin (LMT) $117.64 -0.17% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 12:44:47 PM


DJ- The United States is planning a $7 billion sale of an advanced missile defense system to the United Arab Emirates that could be used in defense against Iran, Reuters reports, citing sources.

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 12:42:48 PM

EIA: US natural gas production expected to rise 7.8% in 2008.

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 12:41:36 PM


DJ- President George W. Bush will announce a gradual redeployment of U.S. military personnel from Iraq to increasingly violent Afghanistan, with as many as 4,500 new troops slated to deploy to Afghanistan by January.

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 12:38:22 PM

EIA: Global'09 oil use seen up 1.1% after 0.8% rise in '08

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 12:25:14 PM

LEH Sep $7.50 Puts (LYH-UU) $1.68 x $1.70 are unusually active at 26K contracts, OI at last night's close 12,674

LEH $9.11 -35.61%

Linda Piazza : 9/9/2008 12:11:04 PM

Begin to again factor in OEX vulnerability to 577.90-578.20. The 10-minute chart now suggests a potential downside target of 576, which would more than constitute a retest of yesterday's 576.98 low. In today's environment, it's not a given that any targets will be reached, but be aware that these are being tentatively set. Currently, the OEX is holding at the rising trendline off yesterday's low, holding on 10-minute closes, at least, so there's still bounce potential here.

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 12:10:19 PM

EIA: Sees Q4'08 demand down 0.5% vs. Yr Ago at 20.47M B/D

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 12:08:39 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $83.87 -2.39% ... $0.50 box to match futures Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 12:06:53 PM

EIA: Commenting that it thinks OPEC will lower output to prevent "sharp" price decline.

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 12:05:48 PM


DJ- Charlotte bank expects severance and other costs of $525 million to $650 million in the second half of 2008, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. Wachovia previously said it plans to lay off 6,950 employees.

WB $17.15 -9.74% ... WB-UC $0.50 x $0.55

Keene Little : 9/9/2008 11:50:45 AM

The numbers I provided earlier for a downside target and potential support for SPX was for ES. The numbers for SPX are 1241.60 for two equal legs down from yesterday's high and 1238.96 for a 62% retracement of the rally from Friday. Gap close is at 1242.83. So we've got a target zone of 1239-1243.

Linda Piazza : 9/9/2008 11:49:25 AM

Jeff's post about Hurricane Ike reminded me to mention that I may be taking a day or two off at the end of the week if we get flooded with relatives and friends evacuating from the coast. Our single guest from Gustav left a week ago, and I'm not sure whether the Jefferson County authorities will issue another mandatory evacuation or not, depending on where Ike goes. I could have anywhere up to nine human guests and four canine ones, so I think the better part of valor would be to just take off if that should happen rather than to try to write coherent posts.

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 11:47:06 AM

October Unleaded (rb08v) $2.66 -3.27% ... back under its trending higher 200-day SMA ($2.72)

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 11:44:49 AM

Dow Transport Avg. (TRAN) 4,864.73 -1.65% ... testing its trying to round higher 200-day SMA and upward trend from 01/09/08 low to recent 07/03/08 low.

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 11:38:25 AM

Hurrican Ike 5-day Cone at 11:00 AM EDT Link

Linda Piazza : 9/9/2008 11:30:51 AM

Depending on what happens in the next few minutes, it looks as if the potential OEX support on 30-minute closes now at 580.59 may mostly hold. The last 30-minute period ended on that support or maybe even a few cents below it, and the OEX did subsequently dip toward if not quite to the 577.90-578.20 zone mentioned in my 10:54:55 post. Mostly, though, that support has held. Dialing down to 10- and 15-minute charts shows me that the support test might not be over, however, and so I would suggest that rollover potential still be considered until and unless the OEX can sustain 15-minute closes above about 582.75, the current level of the 9-ema. I and several others have noted that this morning might not provide the best or most predictable setup, and that's certainly been true. One thing is certain, however: the OEX had been setting up a potential inverse H&S over the last week. That right shoulder is getting a bit out of proportion both in time and volatility, when compared to the left one. I don't always count on these to perform, but I do like to watch them for insights into bullish versus bearish strength and the bulls just didn't quite have the strength needed to get this confirmed when it should have been confirmed, either late yesterday or first thing this morning.

Keene Little : 9/9/2008 11:06:05 AM

SPX 1240.24 would be a 62% retracement of the rally off Friday's low so the 1239-1240 holds a lot of potential to be both the downside target today and support. As mentioned yesterday, a break much below gap close would be bearish (and would be following the leadership of the techs).

Linda Piazza : 9/9/2008 10:54:55 AM

There's the OEX dropping into the zone mentioned in my 10:37 post, currently down to 580.63 on 30-minute closes. The OEX needs to hold this support or it next risks falling toward 577.90-578.20 or maybe even into a test of yesterday's low. And bulls know that they don't want that low exceeded. Please remember that it's just right back in a chop zone from yesterday. I personally didn't look at the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac solution as long-term positive and I think any rallies we have must be looked at in the context of bear-market rallies, but still, don't get overly bearish at any one particular time. Gains can be brutal in such rallies and can come out of nowhere. OEX at 582.19.

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 10:53:35 AM

Looks like BOE kept rates unchanged on Thursday at 5.00%.

Jane Fox : 9/9/2008 10:50:52 AM

Crude is making new lows today.

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 10:49:34 AM

SPY $126.06 -0.73% ... as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 10:49:01 AM

On Thursday of last week, at 10:30 AM EDT, the SPY found some notable selling ($126.84). That looks to coincide with the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

Jane Fox : 9/9/2008 10:44:45 AM

There is no need to dig further into the internals now because they are all bearish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 10:44:24 AM

Last Week's Global Economic Calendar Link

Keene Little : 9/9/2008 10:43:26 AM

The spike up after the open was immediately sold into and that kind of behavior continues to look bearish. There's just no interest in buying, only short covering. SPX is threatening to break its uptrend line off Friday's low through yesterday's low at 2:00 PM. It's possible we're going to get a pullback against yesterday's high that creates a larger 3-wave correction. That would have SPX tagging 1239 before reversing back up. So 1253 remains the key level for now and if broken I'd look for a move at least down to 1239. Gap close from yesterday would be at 1240.50.

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 10:38:28 AM

Last Night's / Today's Global Economic Calendar at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/9/2008 10:37:14 AM

The OEX is now testing the potential support on 30-minute closes, with that at about 583.70 currently. If this holds, another test of resistance might be likely, but some charts are suggesting it will fail and the OEX will drop toward 580.70-582. Begin to factor in vulnerability to that zone without yet counting it as an actual target. OEX at 583.63 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 10:34:36 AM

Energy and miners getting hit hard this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 9/9/2008 10:27:06 AM

Lehman Bros. (LEH) $12.09 -14.55% Link ... probes its 07/15 low.

Linda Piazza : 9/9/2008 10:20:43 AM

Unfortunately, I still don't think that final direction is decided for the OEX. The 10-minute chart still shows potentially strong resistance on 10-minute closes beginning at about 589.96 and extending up to a little above 590, but there's potentially strong support on 30-minute closes at 583.75. Below that is the choppy consolidation zone in which the OEX spent the middle of the day yesterday. If you're trading this, be sure you know where your logical stops should be and be ready to take quick profits if something starts looking not quite right.

Jane Fox : 9/9/2008 10:12:13 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- In a sign that the U.S. housing market may weaken in coming months, an index of sales contracts on previously owned U.S. homes fell 3.2% in July from the prior month, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. The index, which is considered a leading indicator of existing home sales, was down 6.8% from the prior year. Pending home sales in July were mixed regionally, with a decline of 10.6% in the West, and 7.5% in the Northeast. In the South, there was no growth. And in the Midwest, there was a gain of 2.8%. The June pending home sales index was revised to a gain of 5.8% from a prior estimate of a 5.3% increase.

Linda Piazza : 9/9/2008 10:10:39 AM

For reference, yesterday's OEX high was 590.25. The OEX's 10-minute chart now shows potentially strong resistance on 10-minute closes pushed up to 589.99. OEX at 588.87 as I type.

Jane Fox : 9/9/2008 10:09:02 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Unless you work in the oil, gas or related mining industries, the job market is unlikely to look brighter in the fourth quarter, and even retailers are glum about hiring for the upcoming holiday season, according to the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.

The Milwaukee firm's quarterly survey of hiring plans found that a net 9% of firms expect to hire in the fourth quarter, down from 12% in the previous quarter, and 18% for the fourth quarter a year ago. This fourth quarter outlook is the tenth consecutive quarter of declining employer sentiment in the survey -- the longest such retreat in more than 20 years.

Manpower's seasonally adjusted net-employment numbers, based on a survey of 14,000 U.S. companies, measure the percentage of firms planning to hire minus those intending layoffs. Manpower doesn't measure the number of jobs. The survey's margin of error is +/- 0.8%

Jane Fox : 9/9/2008 10:03:55 AM

Internals all look bullish, both AD ratio and AD volume are heading up and the VIX and TRIN are heading down but if you look a little closer you will see both the Ratio and Volume under 0 and the TRIN well over 1 and that is not bullish. Link

Linda Piazza : 9/9/2008 10:02:10 AM

Potentially strong resistance on 10-minute closes for the OEX at 589.02-590.04. That gives you a shorter-term look. Potentially strong resistance on 30-minute closes, with the next 30-minute close still a long, long way away, is currently 587.83 but likely to be driven toward 588 if the OEX keeps climbing.

Keene Little : 9/9/2008 9:52:56 AM

We got a little volatile price action after the open and now prices are being jammed higher. It looks like some short covering from some program buying so the question is will it hold. Until either SPX 1285 is broken to the upside or 1253 to the downside I'd be very concerned about lots of chop and whipsaw. I'm hoping a break of either of those two levels will at least indicate the general direction of the market to try to trade with.

Linda Piazza : 9/9/2008 9:50:55 AM

As I suspected it might, the A/D line has found support on 15-minute closes at the Keltner support now near -520. The A/D line is between support and the bearish/bullish benchmark for this morning, which is currently at about -130. The A/D line closed that first 15-minute period at -371, and it's currently -233. As I said, I don't think the eventual outcome is yet settled. Perhaps the 10:00 am ET numbers will do that. For now, though, bulls need to evaluate whether they want to risk holding their entire positions open over that announcement, even as you're staring at a potentially bullish formation on the intraday charts: such things have been invalidated just as quickly as the bearish versions lately. Would-be bears also need to consider whether they want to either initiate or hold open bearish positions. The OEX is testing what looks like potentially strong resistance as the A/D line does, too, but we just don't know whether it's going to burst up through it or turn down from it.

Jane Fox : 9/9/2008 9:45:05 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- With the economy weakening and spending on the war rising, the federal government's budget deficit is expected to more than double this year compared with last year, the Congressional Budget Office estimated Tuesday. The federal deficit is projected to hit $407 billion in the fiscal year that ends Sept. 30 (compared with $161 billion in 2007) and to remain near $400 billion in 2009 and 2010, around 3% of gross domestic product. In its summer budget update, the CBO said the economy will likely grow 1.5% this year and 1.1% next year. In the long-run, the nonpartisan budget office said, "the federal budget is on an unsustainable path."

Linda Piazza : 9/9/2008 9:42:41 AM

Jane may have already mentioned it, but we have pending home sales in a few minutes, at 10:00 am ET, and you can betcha that could change the trading tenor. We also get a couple of other numbers at the same time.

Linda Piazza : 9/9/2008 9:41:02 AM

The OEX has potentially strong support on 30-minute closes at 582.40-583.65. While we could be getting an immediate rollover this morning, I'm not so sure that's going to happen, so bears need to be aware of the possibility that the OEX could chop around for a while longer before any ultimate direction is decided, if one is. OEX at 583.81.

Jane Fox : 9/9/2008 9:39:09 AM

AD line opens at a neutral to bearish -581 but is falling as I type.

Linda Piazza : 9/9/2008 9:38:11 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: This outlook is different than Jane's, and I urge you to read her posts as well as mine. I like Keltner charts because they give me some idea of what's bullish or bearish and allow me to set if/then kinds of statements. If the A/D line does this, then that might happen. Right now, the A/D line made its first prints in the lower or bearish half of its Keltner charts on the 15-minute interval. It is, however, close to what could be strong support, at -500 on 15-minute closes, so it's possible that this support will hold and bounce the A/D line. If the A/D line doesn't hold near this potential support at the close of the 15-minute period but instead strongly violates it, then there's the potential for it to drop much harder and to bring equities lower, too. However, if it mostly holds this support and even if it bounces but stops the bounce near about -100, then we really still don't know much. A/D line currently -577.

Linda Piazza : 9/9/2008 9:26:14 AM

When I went to work out this morning, futures were comfortably above fair values. While working out, I was mentally composing this post about the OEX, suggesting that we should look for possible first resistance in the same place we looked for it yesterday, at the confluence of the former triangle's best-fit supporting trendline and the 10- and 30-sma's on the daily chart, and of the 61.8% retracement of the slide off last Tuesday's high and potential resistance on 30-minute closes at about 587.40 if the OEX rose this morning.

What now? I wouldn't be surprised to see an attempt to bump higher this morning and neither would I be surprised to see the OEX turn down again within yesterday's congestion zone down to about 577.80. This is one of those days when we're just going to have to wait for clarity. As of yesterday afternoon, the OEX's 10-minute chart suggested that as long as it maintains 10-minute closes above about 584.70, it maintains a possible upside target of 588.54-589.71, but it also suggests that resistance could be tough.

Jane Fox : 9/9/2008 9:24:38 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Credit Suisse downgraded four U.S. homebuilders -- Toll Brothers , Pulte Homes , D.R. Horton and KB Home -- to neutral from outperform. It cited a further deterioration in traffic during the summer and higher valuation. Credit Suisse said the GSE conservatorship will lower mortgage rates between 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, which aids affordability by the same as 3% to 4% fall in home prices. The broker said prices need to fall 9% further and credit availability must improve to spur sales and restore affordability.

Jane Fox : 9/9/2008 9:20:51 AM

Crude continues its trek downwards and has made another lower low today at 103.85. Link

Jane Fox : 9/9/2008 9:19:10 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Major oil producers will have to feel for a floor and ceiling to guide their way in the dark as they work to find balance for an oil market that's seen the price of a barrel of crude drop by nearly 30% in two months.

Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will gather in Vienna over the next few days and are set to make an announcement Tuesday on production quotas.

They're in a precarious position, as usual.

OPEC will have to consider several factors, including lower demand projections for 2009 and higher production from non-OPEC producers, said Kate Dourian, Middle East editor at Platts, an energy and metals information provider.

But "what must be of grave concern ... is the speed of the oil price decline in recent weeks," she said.

Jane Fox : 9/9/2008 9:17:00 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- In short remarks that avoided talk of the current economy, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke helped kick off a conference of historically black colleges. Bernanke said education has vast economic benefits, but also helps each of us become the best we can be. People with more education are happier, richer, healthier, more active in civil society, more charitable, and are more tolerant of other people and cultures, Bernanke said. Bernanke made no comments on the economy, or on the government's latest financial bailout.

Jane Fox : 9/9/2008 9:15:58 AM

I see we have Fed Chairman Bernanke speaking at 9:00 today but so far that has not moved the markets too much. Then Pending Home Sales and Wholesale inventories out at 10:00ET.

Jane Fox : 9/9/2008 9:12:21 AM

The overnight markets were able to make a series of higher highs but they are all now heading back down and looks like they may do a retest of overnight lows before the cash markets open at 9:30ET. Link

Keene Little : 9/9/2008 8:40:36 AM

After sinking overnight equity futures sprang to life following the low near 2:00 AM, when the European markets opened. They got pushed to a high just before 7:30 AM and have since backed off. It's hard to trust an overnight move like the ramp up so we'll have to see if the positive futures (as of 8:30 AM) leads to a positive cash open. The ES daily chart shows it's still finding its downtrend line from May as resistance: Link

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