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Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2008 1:55:01 AM

China End-Aug (Money Supply)

M0 Up 10.89% on year vs. Up 12.30% End-Jul
M1 Up 11.48% on year vs. up 13.96 End-Jul
M2 up 16.00% on year; Forecast was up 16.7%

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2008 1:35:53 AM

DXY Note: Today's high 80.34.

Last quarter's high 74.30

Prior quarter's (Apr-June) 77.34.

If short gold/oil just make a note and protect some profits.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2008 12:28:51 AM

Chavez expel's U.S. ambassador ... Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2008 12:23:02 AM

Can't forget those small caps ... IWM's 07/22/08 first 120-minute bar close $70.54 and closes today $71.92

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2008 12:17:37 AM

Check out 120-minute intervals of SPY, DIA and XLF with volume turned on. QQQQ too. That 07/22/08 open. Check where prices are at here today from that closing bar.

SPY 07/22/08 first 120-min bar close was $126.27 and SPY $125.51 today's close.

DIA's 07/22/08 $115.17 and closes $114.86.

XLF's 07/22/08 $21.15 and closes $21.45

QQQQ's 07/22/08 $44.29 and closes $43.60

No volume observation for OIX, but 07/22/08 827.53 and closes today 745.71.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 11:43:20 PM

The 120-minute interval setup for bulls is there between the XLF and OIX. They've not yet been able to get in unison though.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 11:26:30 PM

Various Energy Futures (10:45 PM EDT) Link ... Earlier on Thursday, I commented quickly on the rb08v upside % performance. Based on historical observation (Hurricane Ike approaching) I think the aversion to risk has fewer sellers in the near-month contract. As we get news of Ike's patch and impact on refiners (if any), traders will likely respond accordingly (more damage, less gasoline refined, so price higher: no damage, gasoline refining resumes, so price abates).

Hurrican Ike 5-day cone @ 10:00 PM EDT Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 11:12:48 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 9/11/2008 10:43:58 PM

Friday's pivot table (still September contracts): Link

The jam higher into the close had SPX jumping slightly over its downtrend line from September 2nd so it needs to continue rallying Friday morning to make the break meaningful (and not just a slight throw-over), as shown on its 120-min chart: Link . The DOW stopped just short of its downtrend line: Link

Continue to watch the techs as they've been showing the way. The top of a parallel down-channel for NDX is near 1800 but it's by no means certain it will get there (or stop there) as the wave pattern calls for additional work to the downside before it's ready for a bigger bounce. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 10:41:31 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 9/11/2008 10:00:00 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Tab Gilles : 9/11/2008 7:30:16 PM

Galveston Evacuates, Houston awaits Ike floods Hurricane warning along Texas coast; Cat 4, Friday night landfall possible Link Link Link

Tab Gilles : 9/11/2008 7:17:04 PM

Follow-up to my 9/10/2008 10:28:04 PM post

OIL SERVICE HOLDRS (OIH) $159.31 +$3.31 (2.12%) Link

The suggested call option--January 2009 call $155.00 Ticker symbol OIHAK Bid 14.75/ Ask 15.05 --- opened down this morning got as low as $13.30/$13.60. Closed today at Bid $16.50/ Ask $16.80.

Last night it was reported that OPEC would go ahead with production cuts, however, today Saudia Arbia said it won't not follow through. Link

Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) Link

USO Link


Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 6:03:30 PM

DJ- Palin: War may be needed if Russia attacked Nato ally

Republican Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin said in her interview with ABC that she supports Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO - and that war with Russia might be necessary if Russia attacked a NATO member. The ABC News Web site Thursday carried excerpts of Palin's interview with Charlie Gibson. Palin said she supports Ukraine and Georgia both joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Then Gibson asked whether that would mean war if Russia invaded Georgia. "Perhaps so," Palin said, according to ABC. "I mean, that is the agreement when you are a NATO ally, is if another country is attacked, you're going to be expected to be called upon and help."

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 6:00:30 PM

Washington Mutual (WM) ... Expected provisions to be $1.4B less than Q2.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 5:55:17 PM

Lehman in talks to sell ... Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 5:52:40 PM

Big block of 4.1 million crossed in BAC at $32.40

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 5:51:57 PM

Reuters ... Reporting that Bank of America in talks to buy Lehman.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 5:49:49 PM

Money Supply (released) ... Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 5:46:11 PM

DJ- AMG: Reports US Junk Bond Funds Report $130.4 million inflow in week

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 5:38:27 PM

Wachovia (WB) $14.28 -5.30% ... some chatter today they might be part of deal to buy part of LEH. Ticks quiet at $14.47

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 5:35:49 PM

LEH $4.30 extended

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 5:35:36 PM

CNBC ... saying Washington Post reporting Fed/Treasury working with syndicate for Lehman Bros. (LEH) $4.22 -41.79% ... deal as early as Sunday.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 5:12:29 PM

S&P Price/Earnings Ratio at 14.67%, Up From 14.47%

DJ- The price/earnings ratio of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index at the close of trading Thursday was 14.67.

On Wednesday, the ratio ended at 14.47.

The price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 measures the index's closing level divided by the index's total earnings, as reported under generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP, for the most recent year.

In 2007, the most recently reported year, S&P 500 companies reported earnings of $85.12 a share.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 4:56:19 PM

Campbell Soup (CPB) $39.00 +3.77% ... notable new 52-week high at the big board.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 4:49:06 PM

If you shorted this afternoon's bounce, or today's open, take a note for next year perhaps. Use an option. May avoid getting run over by the USS New York ... Shall we never forget! Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 4:40:39 PM

TRINQ went out at 0.37 ... NASDAQ A/d 1,310:1,567

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 4:40:01 PM

TRIN went out at 0.41 ... NYSE a/d 1,323:1,698

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 4:34:56 PM

Columbia College Chicago ... Buys 39,700 square foot parcel at SW corner of 16th and State Streets for $200,000.00.

Plans to build $21M Media Production Center, which includes two sound stages, a motion capture studio, animation lab, classrooms and space for production design and costumes, is the first new construction project for the college. The building is expected to open during spring term, 2010.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 4:28:08 PM

DJ- Two (2) pages of NH/NL for AMEX

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 4:27:47 PM

DJ- Two (2) pages of NH/NL for NASDAQ

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 4:27:21 PM

DJ - Four (4) pages of NH/NL for NYSE

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 4:22:51 PM

DJ- Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index 207.53 ... yield 6.00%

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 4:18:44 PM

RSG $33.50 +2.19% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 4:18:07 PM

DJ- Bill Gates buying 400,000 added Republic Service shares.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 4:15:58 PM

Retail Gasoline Heatmap Zoom (04:00 PM EDT) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 4:09:34 PM

Pice Gouge Alert! ... NE of Corpus Christi

Linda Piazza : 9/11/2008 4:06:19 PM

Big push into the close. The OEX pushes way up within the range it's been establishing over the last week. This isn't confirmation of anything yet other than that we can still see the OEX thrashing wildly from day to day. The OEX ended the day jammed against the daily 9-ema, just a little below it, and so it hasn't done anything yet to even begin to question that potential vulnerability to 552.50. That would require first a daily close above that moving average to even begin to question it, and then a daily close above the 45-ema, now at 588.29. For now, all we can confirm is scary trading conditions.

Keene Little : 9/11/2008 4:03:48 PM

The pattern of the bounce off this morning's low now leaves a couple of different possibilities on the table, one of which is quite bullish into next week. We'll see if we get some follow through tomorrow to the upside especially if we're going to see NDX achieve two equal legs up at 1785 (1762 close).

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 4:03:47 PM

DJ- Shell: "Sporadic" Shortages at Houston Stations

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 4:01:45 PM

Good gravy! Get out the guns and ammunition ... YM +152

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 4:01:09 PM

Retail Gasoline Heatmap (10:00 AM EDT) Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 3:54:24 PM

VLO +7.02% ...

Keene Little : 9/11/2008 3:54:11 PM

Call it a patriotic jam job or whatever you want but new daily highs should have you exiting your short position. It could continue much higher tomorrow (or be a head fake into the close, we don't know which).

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 3:53:49 PM

DJ- Shell: Spike in Gasoline Demand At Texas Stations

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 3:47:45 PM

DJ- Putin: No Liquidity Crisis In Russian Markets

Keene Little : 9/11/2008 3:42:49 PM

A drop below this afternoon's low from here would leave today's bounce a confirmed 3-wave correction. That would strongly point towards strong selling to follow and this is one of the few times I'll suggest a position loaded for bear. Just keep your risk management under control and know where your stop Must be. For now it's at a new daily high.

Linda Piazza : 9/11/2008 3:43:04 PM

I'm back for a few minutes. I'm not an evacuee yet, Jane: just the grandmother, parent, daughter-in-law and sister-in-law of evacuees and potential evacuees, some of whom should be here any moment.

I had noted before I left that if the OEX were to move into the 574-576 level, OEX traders should be aware then of the potential for a 5-9 point pullback. The OEX has now pulled back about six points. What next? The problem with this pullback that I thought might happen is that it would become rather choppy, perhaps for hours, when it approached the bottom of that 5-9 point pullback, and that's where the OEX is now. It looked as if it might be difficult to guess what happened next if there was that pullback, and now it is difficult. I see the possibility for light support near 568.50, although it's not even a given that the OEX will pull back that far. If the OEX sustains levels below 568, however, it looks as if 566 and then 563.60 might be next places to look for support to kick in. Right now, another test of potential resistance on 15-minute closes at 575 and then 577.65 can't be precluded, either. The pullback looked likely: what happened next is tougher.

Keene Little : 9/11/2008 3:26:20 PM

If you shorted this afternoon's bounce use a new daily high for your stop now--keep it tight since we may be getting only a pullback before ramping a lot higher (if NDX can do the same). Otherwise it's a good setup for short play into next week as I think the selling will really start to intensify.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 3:21:30 PM

And I missed "the move" this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 3:20:32 PM

I don't short on 09/11

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 3:19:53 PM

Bond's closed at 03:00 ... $FVX.X went out at 2.885%.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 3:18:57 PM

YM 11,307 after a tap of its WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 3:17:38 PM

Yesterday's MBA (posted in MM) had edged back to 7.00%.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 3:16:42 PM

Equally important, if not more important, will be ARM rates set to adjust.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 3:15:49 PM


DJ- Average for the 30-year mortgage slides to 5.93% following the government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Drop prompts analysts to forecast a surge in home buying and loan refinancing over the next few weeks.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 3:11:38 PM

DJ- Asian investors by 23% of FHLB Notes vs. 30% in last 5-year.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 3:10:37 PM

DJ- FHLB's $4B Notes Sold at +81.5 BPS over Tsy

Keene Little : 9/11/2008 3:09:56 PM

The DOW just tagged 11360 for two legs up today but NDX is pulling up the rear here and has barely made a new daily high. It could be telling us the bounce is nearly finished. Either that or NDX will rally two equal legs up (1785) and the DOW and SPX will push higher than two equal legs up. It's a time for caution now on both sides while we see if the bounce is about to fail--look for a shorting opportunity here.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 2:54:46 PM

Primary reason your crack spread for Oct and Nov so different and "not making sense" ... HURRICANE

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 2:52:06 PM

If trading unleaded for a refiner ... be short-term oriented.

Keene Little : 9/11/2008 2:51:20 PM

At the rate this market is moving SPX will easily achieve 1246 this afternoon and not tomorrow. The setup remains a good one for a short play from there if price stalls in the 1244-1246 area.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 2:50:40 PM

rb08v +2.63%
x (unch)
z -0.78%
and 09f -0.39%

Tab Gilles : 9/11/2008 2:40:26 PM

The CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio ($CPCE) is a sentiment indicator tracks the number of puts vs. calls traded on the CBOE. As a contrarian, the view is that when put buying reaches extreme levels against call buying, the market has reached a level of fear and panic, this may in fact mark a short-term reversal point for the stock market to move higher.

I took the $CPCE and ran a 13-ma & 21-ma paralled against the VIX. In my opinion the July '08 level will be broken, I believe that the Oct '05 $SPX level of 1175 will be tested over the next several weeks. Link

Jane Fox : 9/11/2008 2:20:44 PM

Crude is now heading back down again (currently at 100.42) and it looks like it may retest daily lows at 100.18.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 2:03:01 PM

There's that NYSE:EEM $35.05 -2.36% again today ... #10 most active.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 1:50:25 PM

Again ... it looks like cl and rb traders got out their playbooks from 2005 hurricane season, but do note 52-week Net% of cl and rb

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 1:47:23 PM

I'm having some major computer cache memory problems today.

CL and RB now % even for 52-weeks.

Keene Little : 9/11/2008 1:36:12 PM

The pullback is a 3-wave move, as it should be, and long against the low at SPX 1222.29 is the recommended play. Upside potential is now 1246.64 for two equal legs up. It might stall at yesterday's high near 1244 so that gives us the target range for the long play and a reversal into a better short play.

Keene Little : 9/11/2008 1:20:49 PM

I'd look at this pullback as a buying opportunity for a trade. It's a counter-trend trade but the upside potential should be about 20 S&P points.

Keene Little : 9/11/2008 1:12:22 PM

Playing with some numbers here, if SPX pulls back to about 1221 (62% retracement of today's rally) and then we get another leg up equal to this morning's we get an upside target near 1245 tomorrow for the setup to get short again, as shown on the 30-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 1:10:14 PM


DJ- Deutsche Bank plans to take a majority stake of 29.75% in Deutsche Postbank and also plans to secure a preemptive right to buy the remaining shares in the bank, a German newspaper reports. Separately, another German newspaper says Santander wants to buy all of Postbank.

DB $81.71 -4.55% ...

Jane Fox : 9/11/2008 1:01:19 PM

WE knew all this though because we have our own resident possible evacatee.

Jane Fox : 9/11/2008 12:59:07 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Evacuations were under way Thursday for residents along the Texas coastline, as the massive and growing Hurricane Ike headed for the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, potentially intensifying into a stronger storm over the next few days.

Ike will strengthen from its current Category 2 level into at least a Category 3 storm before coming ashore late Friday between Corpus Christi and Port Lavaca, Texas, AccuWeather.com predicted.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 12:58:45 PM

Need to go back and look at oil's decline too in relation to China's "lifting" of price ceiling at the individual consumer level on gasoline.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 12:55:32 PM

That's a potentially major change in policy.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 12:53:32 PM


DJ- China's commerce officials will support market-oriented principles as they consider Coca-Cola's $2.4 billion deal to acquire China Huiyuan Juice Group, an official tells state-controlled media.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 12:47:57 PM

HOUSE DEMOCRATS EXPAND PROPOSED DRILLING ... House Democrats, some chanting "drill, drill," embrace a plan to open the door for more oil and natural-gas exploration along the entire U.S. coastline, in a shift showing the power of the energy issue in this election.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 12:45:54 PM

I did not make up that headline. Right off the news wire.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 12:45:31 PM


DJ- The U.S. trade deficit swells to its widest gap in 16 months, increasing by 5.7% to $62.20 billion in July from June's revised $58.84 billion, as the price of imported oil surges to another record, according to Commerce Department data.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 12:40:43 PM

Wachovia Corp. (WB) $13.91 -7.69% ... #1 most active at the big board. WB-UC $1.85 x $1.95 ... six (6) days until expiration.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 12:38:26 PM

As I had noted a couple of weeks ago, Morgan Stanley was hired as adviser to Treasury regarding mortgage issues.

Keene Little : 9/11/2008 12:37:31 PM

Earlier in the week we had the big up day in the blue chips and a negative day for techs. The DOW had closed up almost 300 points while NDX was down about 6 points. Money must be rotating around since today we have NDX up 9 points while the DOW is down 58 points. It's still a bifurcated market and not healthy but nothing moves in a straight line. The challenge in trading a market with this kind of intermarket divergence is figuring out who is swaying who. Following the techs is working right now.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 12:37:28 PM

Excellent, excellent comment from Rick Santelling regarding Morgan Stanley suspending their rating on Lehman Bros.

"You don't really think they're suspending their rating because they don't know what's going on do you? Maybe they do know what's going on."

Linda Piazza : 9/11/2008 12:26:09 PM

I'm taking off for a number of hours now and perhaps the rest of the day as I make probably unnecessary but wise anyway stock-up-the-pantry and tie-down-the-trees arrangements. If I don't stock up the pantry, there won't be any food for the evacuees who do make their way here, whatever our weather. Yesterday, it looked as if we, in our location southeast of Austin, might be subject to something between tropical storm to Category 2 winds, but I think those predictions are currently abating. I'll try to check in again this afternoon, if possible. I don't expect to be on the monitor tomorrow--not because I'm truly worried about outlasting a hurricane but because we'll have at least some evacuees here--but hope to be back Monday.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 12:22:07 PM

423 issues (new lows) at the big board not finding any bid today.

Linda Piazza : 9/11/2008 12:20:45 PM

The OEX is now deep into that 570.30-572 potential resistance zone mentioned as a possible target in my 11:37:21 post. The OEX is 570.01 as I type but hit a high of 572.29. I would expect some stalling near this level now, but whether it actually results in a strong pullback or just a stalling isn't yet apparent. If the OEX can maintain values above about 568, it looks possible that it could try for 574 and maybe even up to 576, but that's not a given. Traders should also factor in a possible pullback to 565.25. If the OEX does reach that 574-576 level, I would certainly adjust my profit-protecting plan if in bullish positions. Beginning at about 574 and certainly up to 578.40 or so, there's the psosibility for a 5-9 point pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 12:18:24 PM

I would think there might me some positive market psychology from traders today. NOTHING wrong with patriotic bid.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 12:15:56 PM

YM trade signals alert! ... Going forward, any YM trade Profiles that I make will be for the December YMO8Z contract.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 12:13:44 PM

DIA $112.76 -0.21% ...

$FVX.X 2.889% ...

(per yesterday's MM at 02:43:54 and 02:44:32)

Linda Piazza : 9/11/2008 12:11:33 PM

Galveston's Mayor has now called for the evacuation of the entire island. Several counties, including three south and east of Houston, have now ordered mandatory evacuations. A Harris County judge, with Harris County being the county in which most of the Houston Metropolitan area is located, has called for mandatory evacuations in many of the city's zip codes. Others are asked to shelter in their homes. Employers for all but essential tasks are asked to shut down at noon today. Patients at some hospitals are being evacuated, and all those with special needs, such as my granddaughter, are being told to evacuate the area. My daughter reports that traffic out of the city on 290 is already at a slow grind, and the gas station near her home was out of gasoline by yesterday. Houston is expected to be on the "dirty" side of what may be a Category 4 hurricane, with the dirty side the side that spawns the most tornadoes, storm surges, and other dangerous effects. For those not familiar with Texas, the last time I saw any figures, Houston's metropolitan area was the fourth largest in the U.S. and traffic regularly rated among the worst in the nation, so this is no minor thing, evacuating this many people.

The danger, though, is that many are not heeding those orders. Many evacuated for Gustav which turned out to amount to a bad thunderstorm in SE Texas terms. Many 20-somethings with families have not been through a bad storm as adults. In Texas, we've all seen the newscasters leaning into the 40-mph winds, trying to pretend they're in the eye of a fierce storm, so that many residents tend to discount what they're hearing. And Ike might not amount to much, but some storm, sometime, will.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 12:07:39 PM

CPB's P/E updated at this Link

Keene Little : 9/11/2008 12:03:37 PM

Not much of a pullback in the techs before they proceeded higher. Looks like a lot of selling in that sector recently is now being reversed.

Linda Piazza : 9/11/2008 12:00:46 PM

The A/D line has pushed up through the next level of resistance and now approaches this morning's high. The TRAN, however, has been dragging potential resistance on 30-minute closes up with it rather than breaking through, so I'm watching carefully for the potential for a pullback there. Not seeing it yet, though. Here's a chart: Link

Keene Little : 9/11/2008 11:51:46 AM

SPX now has a 5-wave move up from this morning's low and that tells us we've got a trend change to the upside for now. The bear trap was set and sprung this morning. We should now get a pullback to correct this morning's rally and then another leg up into tomorrow to finish the bounce. 30-min chart update: Link

Linda Piazza : 9/11/2008 11:47:57 AM

The TRAN inched a little over Monday's high, by a few cents, and is now back below it, by a few cents. It's still testing that high's historical resistance as well as potential resistance on 30-minute closes near 5024. The TRAN is 5023.91 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 11:39:23 AM

Campbell Soup Co. (CPB) ... Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 11:37:47 AM

CAMPBELL SOUP NET RISES, MARGINS FALL Food company's fiscal 4Q net income rises 46% to $89 million, or 24c a share, but margins slip to 39.6% from 40.6% amid continued increases for ingredient costs, and volume declines. Sales rose 13% , helped by an extra week in the quarter.

CPB $37.88 +0.79% ... #285 weighted in SPX; 0.08% of total.

Linda Piazza : 9/11/2008 11:37:21 AM

The way the OEX is lining up small-bodied candles beneath the resistance, rather than falling away, suggests that it's not through testing resistance at least. Let's watch the 30-minute 9-ema at 568.60, to see if it holds as resistance on 30-minute closes. If not, the OEX looks ready to rise up toward the 570.30-572 zone to test resistance there. OEX at 569.13 as I type. Remember that the shape of this climb and many other things about it suggest that it's a bear flag climb. We don't know how long or how far it could carry, but guard any bullish profits zealously.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 11:33:38 AM


DJ- A repot shows that amid falling home prices and tightened credit conditions, lending activity fell more than 20% in 2007 compared with the year prior with blacks and Hispanic whites seeing the largest decline in loan originations.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 11:32:27 AM

Merrill Lynch (MER) $19.90 -14.59% ... technical gap to new multi-year low.

Linda Piazza : 9/11/2008 11:29:43 AM

The A/D line is stalling right where expected, and it's pulling back a little, alhtough not precipitously yet. Remember that propensity it has at times to come back and retest support before it really begins a recovery. We can't guarantee that will happen again, but it's a possibility that I discussed earlier. The A/D line is now -1770 with potential Keltner support on 15-minute closes at -2270 and -2480 and potential resistance on 15-minute closes at about -1470.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 11:27:52 AM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 4,995.25 +1.71% ... tries to reclaim its correlative 21-day SMA, 50-day SMA and 150-day SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 11:24:51 AM

Various Currencies as DXY trades 52-week high! Link

Linda Piazza : 9/11/2008 11:19:48 AM

Wow. Subscriber A.W. reminded me to look at the TRAN today. As I type, it's just retested Monday's 5024.07 high, reaching above that to a high so far today of 5029.53. It's at 5012.06 as I type. As it was reaching up to test that high, however, it slammed into potentially strong resistance on 30-minute closes now at 5020.10. Bulls want to see the TRAN jump above Monday's high and stay there, confirming a potential double-bottom (ish, because there was a slightly lower low) formation while bears want a sharp downturn now from the potential double-top test.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 11:14:47 AM

Euro CurrencyShares (FXE) $139.37 -0.72% ...

USO $81.35 -1.95% ...

Linda Piazza : 9/11/2008 11:11:41 AM

The A/D line is now hitting potentially significant resistance on 15-minute closes, up to about -1390. If the A/D line is going to find resistance and turn back down toward the day's low, this is one of the places where that might happen, so equity bulls need to begin watching for rollover potential.

Tab Gilles : 9/11/2008 11:10:21 AM

JP Morgan (JPM) $39.75 +$0.35 (0.85%) Best of Breed Link Banks and financials. Link

Tab Gilles : 9/11/2008 11:00:57 AM


Holly (HOC) $29.75 +$2 (7.35%)

Valero (VLO) $32.39 +$1.50 (2.92%)

Western Refining (WNR) $10.25 +$0.44 (4.92%)

Jane Fox : 9/11/2008 10:57:30 AM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- Employees of the federal agency that last year collected more than $11 billion in royalties from oil and gas companies broke government rules and created a "culture of ethical failure" by allegedly accepting gifts from and having sex with industry representatives, the Interior Department's top watchdog said Wednesday.

A report by the Interior Department's inspector general, Earl Devaney, described a party atmosphere at the Denver office of the Minerals Management Service, a bureau of the department. Some employees of the office, which houses the department's royalty-in-kind program, "frequently consumed alcohol at industry functions, had used cocaine and marijuana, and had sexual relations with oil and gas company representatives," the report said, adding that "sexual relationships with prohibited sources cannot, by definition, be arms-length."

The report also says that between 2002 and 2006, 19 employees in the agency's royalty-in-kind program, roughly a third of the program's total staff, had "socialized with and had received a wide array of gifts from oil and gas companies with whom the employees were conducting official business."

Jane Fox : 9/11/2008 10:56:05 AM

AD line is still very bearish at -1850 yet the TRIN is at 0.80 so it is not making a lot of sense. Then we have these charts, the S&P futures are making new daily highs but the VIX is not making new daily lows. This is not bullish. I would be very hesitant to put on any longs positions right now. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 10:55:48 AM

VIX.X 25.89 +5.58% ...

Tab Gilles : 9/11/2008 10:55:47 AM

WATCH that 30 level on the $VIX. Link

$VXN Link $RVX Link

Keene Little : 9/11/2008 10:55:24 AM

Techs continue to lead the way in this market, the first to make it into the green and an impulsive climb off this morning's low. It should soon pull back to correct this morning's bounce but that should then be followed by another leg up in its bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 10:55:15 AM

Swing trade sell NAKED Put alert! ... for one (1) of the US Oil Fund USO Oct. $72 Puts (UNA-VT) at the bid of $1.20.

USO $81.30 -2.01% ...

Jane Fox : 9/11/2008 10:48:36 AM

Crude's daily low so far is $100.18.

Jane Fox : 9/11/2008 10:47:53 AM

TEL AVIV (MarketWatch) -- CME Group, the Chicago parent of the CME Globex trading platform, said on Wednesday that because of Hurricane Ike's potential impact on the U.S. Gulf Coast, the firm would extend trading hours for energy futures and options on the CME Globex and ClearPort trading and clearing platforms. Only for energy products, CME Globex and Clearport trading on Sunday, Sept. 14, will start at 10 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time. The pre-open on CME Globex starts at 9:30 a.m. U.S. Eastern. All trades will be for the Monday, Sept. 15, trade date. "All other products listed on CME Globex will follow their regular trading hours on Sunday," CME Group said. The firm and the trading community "recognize the need for the global energy markets to manage their risk during this potentially volatile time," CME Chief Operating Officer Bryan Durkin said in the statement.

Tab Gilles : 9/11/2008 10:52:07 AM

Oil ($WTIC) is ready to hit the psychological $100 level...currently @ $100.77

NatGas Inventory Report just out +58 BCF Prcie of $NATGAS coming down $7.30.

Taking a look again at the oil/natgas charts here using the USO & UNG. Link

US Dollar/ Oil chart Link

I'd posted this chart last week... Link

Linda Piazza : 9/11/2008 10:41:47 AM

We're just waiting it out now on the OEX. We know of the potential historical (and Keltner, on 30-minute closes) support near 563 and now, down to 562.60. However, the 15-minute chart says that as long as the OEX maintains 15-minute closes below 566.02 and maybe even below 567.34, it maintains a short-term downside potential target of 558. Which do we believe? We keep that lower target on our short-term radar screen without necessarily counting on it being hit. That means, if in bearish positions, you're aware of the various forms of potential support between here and there, and you know how much of a bounce you'd be willing to weather. It means, if you're considering a long trade, you be aware that if support at 562.60 is lost on 30-minute closes, then the 558 level might be hit and, if things get really bad . . . there's that 553-ish downside target on the daily chart, although I wouldn't call that one a short-term one. You let those potential levels inform your decisions, but you don't count on them being hit.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 10:39:24 AM

EIA: Weekly Nat. Gas Storage table Link ... Build of 58 Bcf

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 10:38:18 AM

US Nat. Gas Fund (UNG) $34.21 +0.55% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 10:37:49 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $81.71 -1.54% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 10:36:34 AM

US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.22 +0.47% (30-min delayed) ... continues its torrid advance. WKLY R2 80.39 just ahead.

Jane Fox : 9/11/2008 10:59:54 AM

Lehman Bros. getting been taken to the woodshed. Its all time high back in February 2007 was 85.75 and it is not 4.26. Whoa!! Link

Jane Fox : 9/11/2008 10:25:58 AM

My goodness gracious Crude has hit a low of 100.86 so far today. The selling has not stopped here either.

Linda Piazza : 9/11/2008 10:18:21 AM

We have the automatic buy-the-retest (of Friday's low) bounce, occurring as the A/D line also hit support. But will the bounce last? That, we don't know. The OEX has now risen to test potentially significant resistance on 15- and 30-minute closes, with the resistance at about 566.60 on 15-minute closes and 565.53 on 30-minute ones. The A/D line, after hitting that particular support mentioned and pictured in other posts, sometimes comes back down to retest, producing bullish divergences, before it can sustain a bounce. That doesn't always happen, but it does happen at times.

Linda Piazza : 9/11/2008 10:12:14 AM

The A/D line is in fact bouncing from this support mentioned earlier: Link However, as you can see, the bounce is tepid so far. I would watch for potential resistance on 15-minute closes at about -1500 if the A/D line should bounce that high, but bears really don't want to see it bounce that high. They want sideways. Note: as I typed and after I'd snapped the chart, the A/D line started bouncing harder, and is currently -2028 as I type.

Jane Fox : 9/11/2008 9:57:13 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Oil futures traded lower Thursday morning, as The New York Times reported that Saudi Arabia has given private signals that it won't honor the production quota drop agreed in Vienna. Crude fell 75 cents to $101.83 a barrel.

Linda Piazza : 9/11/2008 9:56:31 AM

Potential resistance for the OEX is now 565.77 on 30-minute closes, 567.09 on 15-minute ones, so watch for potential resistance in that zone.

Keene Little : 9/11/2008 9:51:20 AM

The pattern for NDX supports the idea that it too will see a low this morning followed by a bounce into Friday/Monday before heading lower again as it continues to unwind its EW count to the downside. 120-min chart: Link and daily chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 9/11/2008 9:50:34 AM

A/D line now -2368, having closely approaching potentially significant support on 15-minute closes. The A/D line doesn't have to drop any further to stay supportive of bearish positions. It just has to move mostly sideways while resistance cycles down and catches up. What bears don't want to see now is a strong bounce that then sustains 15-minute closes above -1450. With the A/D line at potentially strong support, however, this is definitely a point at which bears should be fine-tuning their profit-protecting plans, just in case.

Jane Fox : 9/11/2008 9:48:39 AM

It is getting uglier and uglier out there and it looks like a retest of the July 15th lows is now a given.

Jane Fox : 9/11/2008 9:47:24 AM

AD line is a very bearish -2442

Linda Piazza : 9/11/2008 9:40:13 AM

The TED spread is 1.24 this morning. Not good. I was worried when I saw that it wasn't dropping in response to the Freddie/Fannie developments over the weekend.

Linda Piazza : 9/11/2008 9:39:11 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: The A/D line dropped straight through potential support now at -1420 on 15-minute closes. If it closes this 15-minute period below that, it sets a potential downside target of -2350. As fast as it's dropping now, the possibility of hitting that target this 15-minute period exists, but I would remain aware that the A/D line could still steady and bounce by the end of this 15-minute period. It's -1858 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 9/11/2008 9:36:41 AM

For reference, last Friday's low was 563.28. Today's low has been 563.22.

Linda Piazza : 9/11/2008 9:35:38 AM

The OEX drops straight into first potential support on 30-minute closes and even through the first level a bit. That support was driven lower by the early action and is currently at 565.91 with further support near 563. Therefore, with plenty of time still left in the first 30-minute period, the potential for a bounce or bounce attempt still exists. OEX at 563.22 as I type. If there is a bounce attempt, watch for rollover possibility near 565.80-567.60.

Linda Piazza : 9/11/2008 9:32:50 AM

As trading begins today, market participants should be aware that ECB President Trichet speaks this afternoon at 2:00 pm ET, and FOMC member Donald Kohn speaks at 2:45, with a Q&A session planned. He's a voting member of the FOMC.

Linda Piazza : 9/11/2008 9:24:01 AM

I will be in and out today. Evacuees from closer to the coast will begin arriving sometime today, and we have to do things here such as tie down the grandchildren's playhouse and the oaks we've planted this year. We've been warned to expect anything from tropical storm up to Category 2 winds here, even this far in from the coast. Of course, ever since Katrina, forecasters are being extra cautious.

Linda Piazza : 9/11/2008 9:16:46 AM

Obviously you know by now that futures are well below fair values, "grim," as they're saying on CNBC. As I've been noting for a while now, the daily Keltner chart for the OEX suggests a current downside target in the 553-ish range, at 552.49 as I type, with the possibility that the OEX could drop a bit lower than that, too. However, nothing on that chart guarantees that target will be reached or especially that it will be reached in one fell swoop. I've been cautioning for a while now that you factor in vulnerability to 553 in your trading plans, and that's still what I'm saying. This possibility must be kept on the radar screen.

Where might the OEX stop in the interim? The 15- and 30-minute charts suggest potential support in the 566-568 range on 15- and 30-minute closes. If 566 doesn't hold as support on 30-minute closes, the 30-minute chart suggests next support between 563-563.50. If the OEX behaves in accordance with what futures are showing, something that doesn't always happen, it could blow through that first support and head down straight to the 563-563.50 zone. Watch there for potential support.

While I continue to urge bears to keep updating their profit-protecting plans and while I grant the possibility of a relief bounce, particularly on this day when "patriotic" attempts to bounce the market might be put into effect, I absolutely would not counsel attempting to catch any falling knives this morning.

I wrote a Trader's Corner article a while ago, noting a trusted fund manager's admonition that we wouldn't be approaching a market bottom until we'd regularly begun to hear the term "free fall." Regularly, as in day after day, week after week. We haven't had that yet and you don't want to be trying to go long if that free-fall period is now approaching.

Jane Fox : 9/11/2008 8:56:09 AM

All the charts are so darn bearish, all that is except this one, the US$. This has a lot to do with why the commodities are all selling off. Link

Jane Fox : 9/11/2008 8:53:21 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell in the latest week, but analysts may see little cause for optimism as continuing claims remained elevated and as other recent jobs reports have been negative.

Initial claims for the week ended Sept. 6 fell 6,000 to stand at 445,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The four-week average of initial claims rose to 440,000, up 250.

Meanwhile, the number of Americans receiving state jobless benefits rose 122,000 to 3.53 million in the week ended Aug. 30, reaching the highest level since October 2003. The four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 36,750 to hit 3.43 million -- the highest level since November 2003.

Jane Fox : 9/11/2008 8:52:45 AM

Yesterday Crude made a low of 101.36 and so far overnight the low has been 101.46. I?m not ready to take a short-term long in Crude just yet, I need the MACD to cross up give me a bullish divergence first. Link

Jane Fox : 9/11/2008 8:49:41 AM

Needless to say the markets did not like the news that the trade deficit rose more than expected, Wall Street does not like this kind of news. All equity markets broke their previous day lows but the Russell 2000 (ER2) seemed to hold up the best - so far. Link

Jane Fox : 9/11/2008 8:43:55 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected in July, boosted by the largest volume of imported oil in four years, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The seasonally adjusted trade deficit - exports minus imports - grew by 5.7% to $62.2 billion, the most in 16 months. The nominal deficit was larger than the $58.6 billion expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The gap in June was revised higher to $58.8 billion. In July, imports rose 3.9% to a record $230.3 billion, while exports grew 3.3% to a record $168.1 billion. After adjusting for inflation, the real trade deficit rose by 2.7% from a seven-year low in June.

Keene Little : 9/11/2008 8:41:39 AM

Thursday's pivot table: Link

I updated the charts last night and as always show an alternate wave count calling for a rally but with this morning's futures down hard (steady drop all night and this morning) it's looking like the dark red wave count that I've been showing on the SPX 30-min chart (my preferred wave count) is what we'll see this morning: Link

The downside projection is anywhere from 1217 (5th wave equals 1st wave in move down from Monday) to 1200 (5th wave = 162% of 1st wave). ES is already below 1217 with a low of 1212 so far (8:30 AM). The bottom of the down-channel shown on the chart is near 1211. This wave count calls for a low this morning which will then lead to a larger bounce into tomorrow/Monday. Remember, Thursday prior to opex is often a head-fake day so a down morning could set a bear trap.

Yesterday I showed a weekly chart to show what a typical EW pattern might look like for the next bear market leg down ( Link ). Zooming in on the daily chart that path would look like this: Link . And then getting in closer with the 120-min chart it looks like this: Link

This depiction of how price will play out to the downside is of course speculation on my part but it fits a typical wave pattern in both time and price (if the market crashes (never a good bet), throw these charts out the window as the move down will obviously be a lot more severe). I will of course update it along the way and continue to give you my best guess about the preferred and top alternate counts along with the key levels to help guide us along the way.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 3:43:45 AM

Here is that update:

09:00 EST Update 09/11/2001

Stock futures showing marginal gains

Stock futures are showing marginal gains this morning with S&P futures trading higher by 1 point, NASDAQ futures are up 8 points and Dow futures are higher by 50 points. Fair value for the S&P 500 today is $0.96. HL Camp and Company has their computers set for program buying at $2.44 and set for selling at ($0.71). Fair value for the NASDAQ-100 today is $2.00.

Nokia says "On track to achieve third-quarter profits"

Shares of Nokia (NYSE:NOK) should get a boost today as the company says it is on track to achieve its third-quarter profit estimates, despite falling revenues. In overnight trading, shares of NOK rose 12.5% in Helsinki. Yesterday, shares of NOK closed here in the U.S. at $13.75.

Plane hits World Trade Center in New York

Early reports from Manhattan have a twin engine plane colliding with the World Trade Center in New York. Stock futures had dipped rather precipitously just before the news was announced, but then recovered. Many professionals that frequent the building day to day may not yet have shown up for the work day. It now looks like a building next door to the World Trade Center has caught fire.

Stock futures are now declining precipitously. Reports now are coming in that a second plane has flown in to the second tower next to the World Trade Center and speculation is beginning to come in that these incidents may be "suicide attacks."

There is also news coming in that the New York Stock exchange may be evacuating. This is a market moving event and may affect equities today. We'll try and keep subscribers abreast of the events as they unfold today.

Jeff Bailey

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 3:37:08 AM

StockTrader's Almanac Note: It was this day in history in 2001 that US markets were closed for four (4) days. It was the longest close since the 9-day banking moratorium in March 1933.

Shall we never forget how the world changed that day on 09/11/2001.

I will never forget writing that morning's pre-market update for OI subscribers. Never.

When the first plane hit the World Trade Center, ES blipped lower, then quickly recovered as it was first thought a small plane had lost control and hit the side of the tower.

As news began to unfold, things changed quickly.

NOBODY could believe what was happening, or about to happen.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 3:26:28 AM

Energy futures at 02:51 AM EDT Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2008 3:20:12 AM

Jan'09 Nat Gas futures on $0.20 box Link

One "plus" of trading commodities is there's no price/earnings ratios to worry about. Just supply and demand.

Print it out, then hand chart from here using the 3-box reversal method of supply/demand charting!

Just like Charles Dow did when he charted his extensive holdings.

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