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Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 2:09:26 AM

European Markets Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 2:09:22 AM

Asian Markets Link ... Pretty good recovery in Shanghai from its opening bell.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 2:09:17 AM

YM +118, or "just" 1.08% at 10,972.

That's $+590.00 for 1 long mini-dow futures contract.

"just" $540.00 for "us" long $50,000.00 = 1/4 position DIA traders (that can't buy/sell in late extended trade).

When I look at what a VERY BROAD index like the RUT.X has done on a day-to-day basis the last week, I can envision the possiblity of a +/- 10% daily move.

You KNOW what every senator is thinking about don't you?

He/she has to make a decision, then go back to their constituents and face the music.

Then comes November 4th Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:16:11 AM

One recent "rule change" that really disappoints me, is the NO SHORT rule on various financials, and even GM and F.

SHORTS actually provide some "support" during declines (prolonged, or short-periods).

Most are probably thinking that NO SHORTS is good. But when you need the short covering the most, it may not be there.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:10:16 AM

SPX and RUT.X NH/NL table with RUT.X prices at close Link

While SPX is "broad" you can see from the NH/NL were getting readings on less than 100 stocks. RUT.X "very broad" and we get a few more observations of bullish leadership vs. bearish leadership.

Look at how VOLATILE things have gotten.

09/18 we go from SPX 12 NH and 85 NLs to 34 NH and 15 NL. My records show we hadn't observed 34 NH since 05/16/08 (34:1) and 5/19/08 (37:0).

Dating back more than 1-year, and spotty tracking before that, have not seen 198 NH at the RUT.X since a day on 11/15/06 221:3.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 12:42:25 AM

Dorsey/Wright's major market bullish % Table I track at this Link

Not a single question/comment about this morning's post. From 31.00% to 52% for the broad S&P 500.

MAJOR explosion.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 12:18:59 AM

CME Regional Housing futures (Nov'08-Aug'09) at this Link

More "affordable housing" due to ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 12:13:05 AM

ACORN's Foreclosure Exposure: "Metro areas with increased exposure due to high-cost loans Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 11:20:21 PM

YM +125 at 10,979 .... "the news sent shares of Goldman Sachs and stock index futures soaring in electronic trading..."

I (Jeff Bailey) show YM futures about mid-point of Tuesday's regular session.

Didn't mean to "beat up" on Newsday earlier ...

Read, digest, look at a chart. Then make as informed decision as you can.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 11:15:26 PM

Dire warnings fail to say senators on big bailout ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 11:09:46 PM

Nope: Just pulled out my loan applications/approvals. A lot of personal information (where I've been the past several years, schooling, etc) information, but no question about my ethnicity.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 11:00:55 PM

Link from Newsday article to ACORN Fair Housing "A study of racial and income disparities in home mortgage lending in 172 American cities." Link

Question I have is what does race have to do with this? Nicest house in my neighborhood is paid for, and occupied/owned by African-American couple. Male has emphysema. Works 40-hours/week he does, oxygen tank and all.

Now, two (2) houses down from me is "White" guy. Won't vote for the crooks, 8-months behind on his rent. Likes his beer in a can. Works hard pouring cement, but has more toys than anyone on the block. Bends over backward to help everyone in the neighborhood. If I (Jeff Bailey) lent money to him, I'd consider it a gift.

IF race were/is an issue in what anyone pays for an interest rate (I don't remember that box on mortgage loan), then JAIL for the lendor. But if it is a RISK characteristic and coincidence, then so be it.

In a perfect world, EVERYONE would own the same sized house, same color house, same everything.

Thank goodness we don't live in THAT perfect world. Not yet.

Keene Little : 9/23/2008 10:14:29 PM

Wednesday's pivot table: Link

The SPX 15-min chart shows it rallied at the end of the day out of its down-channel from Friday but fell back inside at the close. Equity futures are up strong tonight so a rally early tomorrow would leave a bullish divergence at the test of the low at the end of the day: Link

I'm showing two potential bounce patterns and then a continuation lower. But any rally above 1250 would negate the bearish wave pattern in which case we could see a rally into October that gets up to 1315 if not 1350 (downtrend line from October 2007), shown in pink on the daily chart: Link

It's the same pattern for NDX except that it was unable to break its downtrend line from Friday. But a rally leg Wednesday morning could break the downtrend and confirm we should see at least a correction of the decline from Friday. It would set up the first shorting opportunity for a hard selloff to follow (dark red on the 15-min and daily charts). But a rally above 1750 would suggest a stronger rally (pink) into October, perhaps up to about 1830, before the correction from last Thursday's low finishes.
15-min chart: Link
daily chart: Link

OI Technical Staff : 9/23/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 9:37:26 PM

Bernake: US should pay higher prices for assets ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 9:34:31 PM

And the primary reason for many of my posts ... is to think out loud, make some notes, and assess.

September Trade Blotter CLOSED and current OPEN positions Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 8:25:59 PM

In a perfect world ... FRE, FNM, AIG etc. would be $0.00 as far as I'm concerned. However, the amount/concentration of PERFORMING loans, or paper that "represents" real asset exists and unlike a 5-and-dime store, where inventory can be sold, creditors paid off, and equity holders get what's left over (if anything), isn't a solution when we consider what the "paper" represents.

The mark-to-market right now is hurting things. If you're a homeowner and paying your mortgage, but the guy/gal next door isn't paying their's, is your paper worthless? If their house isn't selling for the $200K price of their note, is your house worth $0.00?

One "solution" posed was that tax payers, or the "bailout" money should only be buying the "good" mortgages.

I don't know about that.

Do I (Jeff Bailey) want to be buying paper $0.75/dollar if I can buy it at $0.10? With housing, I think it better to buy the $0.10, even though there's no payment behind it, rather than the $0.75, where if things continue to worsen, taxpayers have at least taken a lot more $0.10/dollar off business' books.

If taxpayer buy only the "good," or performing notes, what does that really do for the credit crisis?

Maybe taxpayers should buy 80% non-performing, and 20% performing?

You know there's no such thing as a "perfect world." Well, some of us know that to be true.

As Mike Rosen noted, "The problem with capitalism is capitalism. The problem with socialism is socialism."

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 8:06:23 PM

Subscriber email ... Jeff: Something has to be done but not the $700 billlion rescue plan as proposed. We do not want the general public to panic and start a stempede to pull money out from the banks and money market accounts and cash in their CD's. The government can stand behind the cash and money market accounts. Let the financial institutions clean up their own mess. There is always a price whether it is seventy cents, ten cents or 1 cent on the dollar.

Jeff's Reply: One "problem" right now if we do nothing is the liquidity issue. Look at Caterpillar's debt offering today (See 03:02:52 MM post). 3.2 pct pts above Treasuries!

A couple of days ago I quickly reviewed some of the difficulties/problems facing business. Can't get to market with a "reasonable" debt rate, so only alternative is bank rate. But banks aren't really willing to lend without some type of clarity.

Can't dump off loans to FRE and FNM as they had been.

Should CEO's even with some hefty cash balances be looking to spend, or borrow right now? Uncertainty over "bailout" brings uncertainty from the heavy equipment makers right down to the "little guy" and his/her WILLINGNESS, not to mention ability, to spend.

I'm thinking that to be an elected official, it must be mandatory to have at least 5-years private sector experience. KNOW what business needs in order to run and produce gross domestic product. Or ... read one, maybe two earnings reports.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 7:49:48 PM

Election Day is November 4th, 2008.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 7:46:04 PM

Note: That is not a post from me "Jeff" on 09/23/08 10:26 . It could have been though!

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 7:48:24 PM

Subscriber email ... Jeff: Hey, Jeff,

Stop blaming the Community Reinvestment Act for the crisis that resulted from the greed of the capitalist pigs. For every Mike Rosen in existence there are other, more balanced analysts who recognize that the Bush administration gutted the CRA and that the vast majority of banks and institutions that made these worthless loans were outside the jurisdiction of the CRA.

Newsday Link

Given the chance, the private sector has demonstrated that it will screw up every opportunity to self-regulate, because they can't shake the idea that "greed is good" Characterizing any effort to remedy the institutionalized bias against the less fortunate as "socialism" does not advance the debate. The few people in the CRA who got a little break on their mortgage did not reap one one-billionth of the largesse dispensed to the scions of Wall Street. We have privatized gains and socialized losses.

Jeff's Reply : I'm not blaming anyone. I've only got 10 fingers and 10 toes, and I'd need to be an octopus if I really wanted to start pointing.

I think U.S. citizens are to blame. You and I.

Didn't vote? Then ever more blame.

Way too many government programs. Then no oversight. Ah socialism!

Newsday? Unbiased? Please!

The reason I found the Mike Rosen program informative is the "genesis" of where we're at. BIG GOVERNMENT, needs BIG oversight, which means BIG involvement in our lives. And our wallets!

Tab Gilles : 9/23/2008 7:31:34 PM

DuPont names Ellen Kullman president and CEO Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 7:30:09 PM

YM +113 at 10,967

Tab Gilles : 9/23/2008 7:28:31 PM

Investor group working with AIG to thwart Fed takeover Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 7:28:02 PM

US House Leaders Unveil Details Of Resolution To Fund Govt.

DJ- U.S. House leaders Tuesday evening unveiled plans to fund the federal government into March 2009, in $600 billion legislation that will include $25 billion in funding for low-interest loans to the auto industry.

There will be no extension in the moratorium of offshore oil drilling, meaning that at least until the new president takes office in late January, the controversial exploratory drilling will be allowed to take place.

Rep. David Obey, D-Wisc., chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, expressed confidence that leaders in the Senate would agree to the spending package, and that the Bush Administration would sign off on the deal.

The spending bill would also include $5.2 billion in assistance for rising home energy costs for low income people, but no other economic assistance measures.

Obey said that he hoped that lawmakers would still bring forward a stand-alone economic stimulus bill before Congress recesses to campaign for the election, which could happen as soon as Friday.

Tab Gilles : 9/23/2008 7:24:45 PM

WASHINGTON (AP) _ The FBI is investigating four major U.S. financial institutions whose collapse helped trigger a $700 billion bailout plan by the Bush administration.

Two law enforcement officials said the FBI is looking at potential fraud by mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., and insurer American International Group Inc.

A senior law enforcement official says the inquiries, still in preliminary stages, will focus on the financial institutions and the individuals that ran them.

Officials say the new inquiries brings the number of corporate lenders under investigation over the last year to 26.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 7:24:57 PM

High Yield Debt Offerings (pending) ...

Source Interlink - $465 million in senior notes due 2015 (Caa2/CCC+) via Citigroup. Pricing expected: N/A.

Chrysler Group - Up to $6.2 billion first-lien term loan deal for Chrysler Automotive. Goldman Sachs already placed approximately $800 million of Chrysler Automotive's loans. Pricing expected: N/A.

Texas Competitive Electric Holdings Co. (formerly TXU Corp.) - $9.45 billion of term loans. Proceeds, along with bonds and loans already issued, will finance the company's buyout by Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. and TPG, formerly Texas Pacific Group. Pricing expected: N/A.

First Data Corp. - Up to $6.8 billion in notes, including up to $1.55 billion in senior cash pay notes, via Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch. Proceeds, along with a $13 billion term loan, will fund a buyout of First Data by KKR. Pricing expected: N/A.

Tribune Co. - $2.1 billion in debt in various tranches. Proceeds will fund the buyout of Tribune by an investor group led by Sam Zell. Pricing expected: N/A.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 7:19:16 PM

BOE's Blanchflower: Need to cut rates decisively, soon

Tab Gilles : 9/23/2008 7:19:12 PM

WASHINGTON (AP) ? Sources say FBI investigating Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers and AIG.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 7:18:21 PM

Hong Kong Lowers Typhoon No. 8 Signal; Mkts To Trade Wednesday

DJ- The Hong Kong Observatory lowered a No. 8 storm signal early Wednesday after a typhoon passed by the territory, replacing it with a lower-level No. 3 signal and clearing the way for the stock market, banks and other financial institutions to open as usual.

The No. 8 signal had been raised after markets closed for the day on Tuesday as Typhoon Hagupit approached Hong Kong.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 7:15:57 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 7:11:21 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 9/23/2008 6:15:21 PM

GOLDMAN SACHS GRP(NYSE: GS)closed $125.05 +$4.27 (3.54%)

After Hours: $137.25 +$12.20 (9.76%) 5:57PM ET

Tab Gilles : 9/23/2008 6:08:22 PM

Berkshire Hathaway to Invest $5 Billion in Goldman Sachs

NEW YORK, Sep 23, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) --

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS:Goldman Sachs Group, Inc GS 125.05, +4.27, +3.5%) announced today that it has reached an agreement to sell $5 billion of perpetual preferred stock to Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. in a private offering. The preferred stock has a dividend of 10 percent and is callable at any time at a 10 percent premium. In conjunction with this offering, Berkshire Hathaway will also receive warrants to purchase $5 billion of common stock with a strike price of $115 per share, which are exercisable at any time for a five year term.

In addition, Goldman Sachs is raising at least $2.5 billion in common equity in a public offering.

"We are pleased that given our longstanding relationship, Warren Buffett, arguably the world's most admired and successful investor, has decided to make such a significant investment in Goldman Sachs. We view it as a strong validation of our client franchise and future prospects," said Lloyd C. Blankfein, Chairman and CEO of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. "This investment will further bolster our strong capitalization and liquidity position." "Goldman Sachs is an exceptional institution," said Warren Buffett, Chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. "It has an unrivaled global franchise, a proven and deep management team and the intellectual and financial capital to continue its track record of outperformance."

The Goldman Sachs Group is a bank holding company and a leading global investment banking, securities and investment management firm. Goldman Sachs provides a wide range of services worldwide to a substantial and diversified client base that includes corporations, financial institutions, governments and high net worth individuals. Founded in 1869, the firm is headquartered in New York and maintains offices in London, Frankfurt, Tokyo, Hong Kong and other major financial centers around the world.

Tab Gilles : 9/23/2008 5:42:43 PM

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $40.94 +$0.05 (0.12%) PnF P/O $58 Link Link Link Link

Tab Gilles : 9/23/2008 5:15:32 PM

Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr.....

"The market turmoil we are experiencing today poses great risk to US taxpayers. When the financial system doesn't work as it should, Americans' personal savings, and the ability of consumers and businesses to finance spending, investment and job creation are threatened.

The ultimate taxpayer protection will be the market stability provided as we remove the troubled assets from our financial system. I am convinced that this bold approach will cost American families far less than the alternative - a continuing series of financial institution failures and frozen credit markets unable to fund everyday needs and economic expansion."

Chairman Ben Bernanke....

"Despite the efforts of the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, and other agencies, global financial markets remain under extraordinary stress. Action by the Congress is urgently required to stabilize the situation and avert what otherwise could be very serious consequences for our financial markets and for our economy."

Tab Gilles : 9/23/2008 4:39:11 PM

Testimony by Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr. before the Senate Banking Committee on Turmoil in US Credit Markets: Recent Actions regarding Government Sponsored Entities, Investment Banks and other Financial Institutions Link

Testimony: Chairman Ben S. Bernanke U.S. financial markets Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate September 23, 2008 Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 4:14:19 PM

The "bounce" in my opinion was technical in nature. The "scrunch" was possible delay.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 4:11:40 PM

SPY went from "unch" to "scrunch" on Dodd's comments.

Can't say as I want to see any CEO's get the "golden parachute" either.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 4:09:04 PM

Well ... it would have to appear to me that market participants certainly want something out of Treas&Fed/Senate ...

Keene Little : 9/23/2008 4:00:45 PM

One thing that's a little worrisome about the bounce idea is the lack of bullish divergences at today's lows. It's not necessary to see it but it helps confirm a tradeable bottom. The market is clearly showing weakness.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 3:59:01 PM

dj- NY State AG saying it may use a template to help streamline their review of sales of AIG's assets to pay off the Federal Reserve loan of $85 billion.... "I think we can do it very quickly" said NY state's insurance superintendent Eric Dinallo.

Keene Little : 9/23/2008 3:53:48 PM

Unless the market is going to simply head lower from here, we should see another leg up for the bounce. A 50% retracement of the decline from Friday is at SPX 1226.28 and typically the bounce should take about 62% of the time for the decline. That puts us into mid day Thursday but obviously the correction can do anything it wants in whatever time it wants. The form of the bounce, such as a clean 3-wave move is more important than time. So the updated 15-min chart shows some possibilities tomorrow (again, assuming it doesn't just tank from here): Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 3:51:46 PM

dj- More executive pay limits proposed in Treasury rescue plan

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 3:50:51 PM

RKH alert! 108.77 -2.99% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 3:50:20 PM

YM 10,846 ... probes session low.

Keene Little : 9/23/2008 3:50:09 PM

The mean spirited and unpatriotic short sellers have convinced me that my former ways of going long and short were wrong.

I have seen the light and am now a card carrying member of the new socialist trader?s party and now trade with the assurance of the federal government that I am protected for all long trades.

Therefore, I will not be loading up on the short side as I know that it is mean spirited and just not the right thing to do for my country.

I?m Barry and I approved this message!

Thanks for the chuckle Barry.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 3:48:16 PM

YM 10,875 ... getting hit.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 3:47:56 PM

dj- US Sen Dodd: Treasury Rescue Plan Unacceptable In Current State

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 3:45:59 PM

Caught the two (2) SPR deliveries today, but was looking for a new release from DOE when I saw that.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 3:40:55 PM

M, m, mmmmmm

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 3:40:34 PM

Yesterday ... DOE Announces Solicitation for $8.0 Billion in Loan Guarantees ... DOE Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 3:31:09 PM

YM 11,016 ... per any of today's comments, not going to trade it here with just over 30-minutes left.

NYSE a/d 1,204/1,880 not conducive to a trade (for me anyway).

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 3:24:49 PM

dj- Bankrate, Inc. Announces the Acquisition of Bankaholic

RATE $33.97 -3.65% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 3:23:14 PM

So ... $434.95B + $34.23B = $469.18B ...

$700B - $469.18B = $230.82B

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 3:21:39 PM

S&P Slashes Ratings On Another $25B in CDOs ... dj- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services cut its ratings on $25 billion in collateralized debt obligations, citing credit deterioration of residential mortgage-backed securities and stress in the U.S. residential mortgage market.

The ratings agency cut 183 tranches from 36 U.S. cash-flow and hybrid CDO transactions totaling $24.92 billion and one synthetic CDO transaction totaling $100 million. S&P removed 74 of the lowered ratings from watch for downgrade, while placing nine others from five transactions on watch.

Eighteen of the transactions are mezzanine-structured finance CDOs of asset-backed securities, collateralized by RMBS. Sixteen of the transactions are high-grade CDOs collateralized by high-quality RMBS, and the other two transactions are CDOs that were collateralized primarily by other CDOs.

To date, S&P has cut its ratings on 3,761 tranches from 857 cash-flow, hybrid and synthetic CDO transactions totaling $434.95 billion. It currently has 1,395 ratings from 470 transactions, totaling $34.23 billion, on watch for possible downgrade.

CDOs, which use such sliced-and-diced assets as subprime-mortgage bonds to create customized products offering various levels of risk, have been at the heart of steep write-downs at big banks and brokerage firms.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 3:17:16 PM

Alon USA Energy (ALJ) $14.26 -1.65% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 3:15:19 PM

DOE: Alon Gets 125,000 Bbl SPR Crude for La. Refinery

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 3:14:27 PM

Marathon Oil (MRO) $40.10 -2.92% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 3:14:00 PM

DOE: Marathon Gets 250,000 Bbl SPR Crude

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 3:11:44 PM

YM 11,031 ... should'a taken a shot at a long with RKH right back at "get out" level. Let's stick an important support level alert there.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 3:07:43 PM

RIO $21.65 -7.98% ...

PBR $45.65 -4.97% ...

Tab Gilles : 9/23/2008 3:07:36 PM

Last nights CNBC "Mad Money" program, Cramer was pushing gold.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 3:06:51 PM

dj- Brazil Titans Index 28,461.30 , Down 1,089.32, or -3.69%

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 3:02:52 PM

Caterpillar Debt Auction ... Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 3:01:43 PM

dj- $424M in loans from 2 failed banks to be sold online

More than $424 million in loans from two failed banks will be sold online this fall. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. hired DebtX - a private marketplace for loans - in December to sell assets in FDIC receiverships. On Nov. 5, DebtX plans to sell $154 million in commercial real estate, commercial and industrial and consumer loans originated by First Priority Bank in Bradenton, Fla., which was closed in August. The portfolio, which is about 50% performing, consists of $120 million in CRE, $16 million in C&I and $18 million in consumer loans. Due diligence materials will be available online at www.debtx.com beginning Oct. 7. In late November, DebtX plans to sell $270 million in CRE, C&I and residential loans originated by Columbian Bank & Trust in Topeka, Kan., which was shut late last month. The portfolio, which is about 75% performing, consists of $126 million in CRE, $121 million in C&I and $23 million in residential loans. Due diligence materials will be available online in late October. "DebtX expects strong interest from buyers in the U.S. and abroad," said Chief Executive Kingsley Greenland. "DebtX's marketplace remains highly liquid despite the recent turmoil in the financial markets, and we continue to clear successful loan sales regularly."

Keene Little : 9/23/2008 3:01:00 PM

I'd be a little less dramatic than Cramer and say if this plan fails, good. It'll force people to reconsider another plan more seriously, like the one John Hussman discussed yesterday (posted this link this morning: Link )

Tab Gilles : 9/23/2008 3:00:59 PM

The dollar has currently found support at the 76 level. Trading now around $76.50.

I'd posted this chart back on 9/12/08: Link

Current charts:

$USD Bounced off the 50-ma. Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 2:54:38 PM

I think that's about right ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 2:54:22 PM

James Cramer ... "if this plan fails, it's the stone age. If it succeeds, things go up alot."

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 2:46:51 PM

I think the "$3,000/person" figure CNBC is giving is based on population.

However, based on roughly 60% of population actually paying taxes, figure I've seen is $6,000/tax payer.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 2:40:56 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,079/1,731

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 2:40:44 PM

NYSE a/d 1,004/2,057

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 2:40:17 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 9/23/2008 2:37:34 PM

After what looks like a 5-wave move down now from Friday and the larger bounce from this afternoon's low, it looks like the leg down is complete. We should see a rally run into tomorrow/Thursday to correct the decline. That will then be an outstanding shorting opportunity (unless the SEC bans all shorts).

Tab Gilles : 9/23/2008 2:36:59 PM

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $41.35 +$0.46 Link

Here's a relative Gold/NatGas chart relative to CHK. Link

$XNG/CHK Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 2:33:50 PM

Decent bid from my 01:59:23 to 01:59:56

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 2:25:38 PM

Gosh ... the Chrysler bail out was "pocket changed" wasn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 2:23:04 PM

Mr. Iacocca lowered his salary to $1.00/year.

Forbes- The Dollar-A-Year Man Link

Tab Gilles : 9/23/2008 2:17:49 PM

Natural Gas $NATGAS: $7.96 Up 28 cents today, while oil is at $105.17 down $4.25.

Taking a look at several oil and natgas charts. Note the Bullish Divergence patterns.

Gold:Oil / XLE Link

Gold:Oil / OIH Link

Gold:NatGas Link


$XNG Support 490 / PnF 760 Link Link

$NATGAS Support $7.00 / PnF $16.50 Link Link

UNG Support $34 / PnF $46 Link Link

GLD: Support $72.5 / PnF $125 Link

Chesapeake sees other companies cutting gas spending Link Link

Iraq and Shell sign agreement on south Iraq gas Link

$700B Bail Out Plan May Stoke Inflation Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 2:14:28 PM

Can't remember for sure, but I do think Lee Iacocca didn't take a salary until Chrysler turned around.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 2:13:01 PM

Should not that Representative Frank through down the "patriotic" glove on CNBC. Politician for sure.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 2:12:15 PM

dj- Representative Frank: Lack of CEO Pay Limits Could Block Plan From Passing

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 2:10:54 PM

USO $85.15 -2.81% ...

UNG $36.33 +2.30% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 2:09:35 PM

dj- MMS: 868,654 B/D Oil, 4,560 MMCF/D Nat Gas off line in US Gulf

66.8% Oil, 61.6% Nat Gas output still off line in US Gulf.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 2:08:25 PM

Bernanke: Does not think Tsy plan would affect US credit rating

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 2:07:18 PM

dj- Approved House Legislation Bans Retroactive Rate Hikes

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 2:06:11 PM

Paulson (reply) ... "Everything we do impacts Treasuries"

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 2:05:28 PM

10-year up 1.7 bp at 3.843% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 2:05:08 PM

30-year ticks up 2.6 bp at 4.433% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 2:04:43 PM

CNBC cuts in with quick station ID ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 2:04:29 PM

Panel Question ... "could this $700B impact the credit rating of the U.S. Treasury?"

Keene Little : 9/23/2008 2:00:24 PM

I've got some Fibs near NDX 1642 where I think it will find support to launch the 3-wave correction of the decline from Friday. A 50% retracement from there would have it back up to 1707 by Thursday so it's a trading opportunity for those who'd like to take a swing at it.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 1:59:56 PM

YM 10,854 ... should be some bears in here ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 1:59:23 PM

RKH $109.19 -2.62% ... a little below Thursday's "run for cover"

Keene Little : 9/23/2008 1:56:36 PM

Putting the move I showed on the SPX 15-min chart (1:28 PM) into context on the daily chart, and the bearish implications of a 5-wave move down from Friday, a bounce into tomorrow could be a setup for the start of a wicked selloff in the market. It would likely result from disappointment from the feeling the massive bailout plan will not work or get done in time (after all, these decisions are made by committee). It would be part of the recognition by the market that it's in trouble (the hallmark of the 3rd wave down).

I'm showing a price pattern for a move down that meets typical Fib projections in both time and price. I've changed the price scale from Log, which I've been using, to arithmetic to show the long-term uptrend line from 1990 currently down near 1000. I think that's where we're headed rather quickly if I've got the wave count correct here. I'm still showing the possibility for a move up to 1315, if not 1350 (pink), into October but based on the impulsive decline from Friday now I don't think that scenario has much of a chance. Daily chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 1:41:52 PM

Thhhhhat's a BIG move

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 1:41:33 PM

Forex Currecy Live! Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 1:41:03 PM

USD/BRL 1.844 +9.83% ....

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 1:40:07 PM

dj- Rates rise sharply as Brazil sells BRL300M NTN-B Bonds

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 1:38:44 PM

has traded 0.75%

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 1:38:13 PM

Other than the 13-week that is ... now down 8.5 bp at 0.79%

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 1:35:52 PM

Get the feeling based on equity action and panel's comments that market participants want SOMETHING.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 1:33:17 PM

INTC $18.69 +1.02% ... DAILY S1 $18.17, but didn't test morning open low. Not overly "eager" to trade today.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 1:31:54 PM

SMH $24.87 -0.44% ... tapped its DAILY S1 (24.68) almost to the penny.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 1:30:41 PM

Not sure if that month-to-month or vs. year ago ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 1:30:37 PM

Raymond James (RJF) $31.42 +2.01% ... dj- saying August securities commissions $139.8M Vs $155.1M

Keene Little : 9/23/2008 1:28:39 PM

If I redraw the parallel down-channel for SPX based on the trend line along the lows since Friday afternoon the bottom of it hits the 62% retracement (1184.25) near 2:00 PM. That would be a good finish for a 5-wave move down from Friday that could set up a rally to correct the decline. 15-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 1:28:19 PM

Venezuela: August unemployment 7.1% Vs. 8.6% Year Ago

Tab Gilles : 9/23/2008 1:26:34 PM

$VIX 35.14 +1.29 (3.81%)

$VXD 33.54 +1.38 (4.2%)

$VXN 35.84 +0.38 (1.07%)

$RVX 37.4 +1.01 (2.78%)

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 1:26:32 PM

Day trade short cancel order alert! ... for the INTC short.

INTC $18.69 +1.02% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 1:24:23 PM

52-week Bills: 1.955%; 60.62% at high (results)

DJ- The U.S. Treasury awarded $20.00 billion in 52-week bills at Tuesday's auction at a high rate of 1.955%.

The Treasury received bids totaling $61.36 billion and accepted $20.00 billion.

The bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, was 3.07, Treasury said.

Tenders submitted at the high yield were allotted 60.62%.

The dollar price was 98.023278. The investment rate was 2.012%.

The median rate was 1.945%; that is, 50% of the amount of accepted competitive bids were tendered at or below that rate.

Of the competitive bids accepted, 5% were tendered at or below the rate of 1.840%.

The issue is dated Sept. 25, and matures on Sept. 24, 2009.

The CUSIP number on the 52-week bills is 912795S36.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 1:21:43 PM

Paulson: Need Program This Week or Before Congress Leaves

Keene Little : 9/23/2008 1:15:45 PM

A break below SPX 1184 (62% retracement of last week's rally) would be bearish confirmation that we're into a strong selloff as it would also be a drop out the bottom of its down-channel I showed on the 10-min chart.

Keene Little : 9/23/2008 1:12:14 PM

The selling is picking up a little speed and so far the move down from this morning's high looks like a 3-wave move. That means we'll need to see a small consolidation and then another new low before thinking about even testing the long side (stick with a break of the down-channel to confirm a break of the downtrend).

One bearish possibility, which is very bearish, is that we've seen a 1-2, 1-2 wave count to the downside from Friday and that means we've just started the 3rd of a 3rd wave down for that move. It simply means the selling will get very strong this afternoon (disappointment about the prospects for the massive bailout plan?).

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 1:11:05 PM

Day trade short setup alert! ... for 1/2 position in shares of Intel (INTC) $18.66 +0.86% ... should they TRADE $18.80. Stop would be $19.10. Target will be $18.20.

Jane Fox : 9/23/2008 1:07:59 PM

The VIX is now supporting the S&P lower lows so once again it was the VIX following the futures whereas it used to be the futures following the VIX.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 1:03:31 PM

Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) $44.27 -7.80% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 1:02:46 PM

Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (RIO) $21.24 -9.77% ... see #11 most active. 5-minute interval chart with volume turned on had 1.17 million traded at 10:35-40 AM edt from WKLY Pivot ($22.62)

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 12:59:10 PM

Can't short FNM, FRE, AIG, GE, BAC ...1, 2, 4, 6 and 8 most actives.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 12:56:31 PM

Will look for a YM short on any bounce back near 11,080.

Europe finished in the red.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 12:55:18 PM

Getting some downside alerts I've had set.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 12:49:04 PM

4-week and 1-year US Treasury auction results being released.

Keene Little : 9/23/2008 12:48:42 PM

Similar to the NDX 10-min chart I showed earlier, SPX is in a very tight down-channel from Friday, the bottom of which is currently near 1195. Stick with it until it's broken to the upside: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 12:48:15 PM

Euro CurrencyShares (FXE) $147.45 -0.96% ... quiet ... hovering at/near session low (147.30).

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 12:47:11 PM

dj- France's Sarkozy Calls For Emergency Financial Summit

Jane Fox : 9/23/2008 12:46:31 PM

S&P futures are now making new daily lows but the VIX is not so I don't think those lows will have any kind of follow through. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 12:39:41 PM

dj- Canada's PM: Concerned about impact of US slowdown on Canadian exports

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 12:38:30 PM

dj- Canada's PM: No U.S.-Type Financial Instability In Canada

Jane Fox : 9/23/2008 12:37:26 PM

So a problem that began with a small percentage of mortgages now threatens the financial world. And the government will have to buy those mortgages to bring stability back to the system.

Jane Fox : 9/23/2008 12:36:22 PM

One of the reasons our credit financial crisis is so pervasive is that the CDOs that I discussed yesterday are pools of pools of mortgages that are both toxic and very safe and profitable. How do you put a value on a CDO like that when there is no market to value it. The mark to market means the value of anything will depend on how much the last person is willing to pay for it. If there is no market (and there is no market for these right now) then there is no mechanism to value it. The government's challenge is to valve these instruments not to high so the companies that are involved are rewarded but yet low enough for the companies to have a way of staying alive and not face bankruptcy .

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 12:35:26 PM

90-day Cetes Yielding 8.32% ... more "equivalent" to our 13-week.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 12:34:25 PM

dj- Mexico's 28-day Cetes Yield Falls 0.01 Pct Pt to 8.15% ... just south of the border.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 12:32:54 PM

Nat Gas +2.73% and bucking energy complex trend.

Today is first day of fall, and may be somewhat psycho

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 12:31:09 PM

SLV $13.06 -2.17% ... yi08z $13.29 -1.43% ..

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 12:30:16 PM

13-week Yield ($IRX.X) down 7.5 bp at 0.80% and session low.

Keene Little : 9/23/2008 12:29:24 PM

Watching today's slow price action leaves open several possibilities for what's next this afternoon. I'm starting to get the impression we might see a choppy move lower this afternoon that ends up forming a descending wedge from this morning's high. That would be one kind of 5th wave (ending diagonal) to complete the leg down from Friday. A downside projection for the end of the move would be SPX 1193.56 and NDX 1641.61 which is where the 5th wave would equal the 1st wave (the initial drop off Friday morning's high. Just thinking out loud here as I watch what develops.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 12:26:07 PM

Most actives ... FNM $1.20 +51.89%, FRE $1.29 +51.76%, QQQQ $41.29 +1.00%, AIG $5.08 +7.62%, MSFT $26.04 +2.51%, GE $25.06 -4.16%, BAC $33.11 -3.07%, SPY $120.69 -0.51%, EMC $11.89 -2.85%, INTC $18.89 +2.21%

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 12:23:27 PM

YM up 6.00 at 11,069 ... "tight range" so far toda ... 11,012-11,145

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 12:27:46 PM

Paulson: ... Thinks that would be a mistake. Treasury plans on implementing in tranches, but thinks government needs to give it full shot.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 12:20:44 PM

Senator Schumer Link ... asking "what if you only ask, or we give $150 billion now ... see how it works."

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 12:13:34 PM

Paulson: ... he's addressing the "free market" pricing issue. He's thought long and hard, and extraordinary times doesn't see a way. He stated he would prefer a "free market" approach over government intervention.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 12:11:45 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 11:59:52 AM

UNG $36.31 +2.25% ... the UNE-AJ are $4.30 x $4.70

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 11:59:01 AM

USO $86.02 -1.82% ... the UNA-VT $0.65 x $0.80

VIX.X 33.23 -1.83% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 11:53:53 AM

That's where I don't think "blame" falls at the feet of just one person, or agency.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 11:52:28 AM

Paulson ... his comment there rings true.

Paraphrasing ... we created the systemd, we let it exist as it was. Now we (taxpayers) have to pay.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 11:47:00 AM

Premiums steady-to-compressing in the WFC-VE ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 11:44:29 AM

WFC $35.43 +0.71% ...

WFC-VE $0.40 x $0.50

VIX.X 33.24 -1.80% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 11:29:36 AM

Testimony continues ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 11:29:12 AM

Paulson (comments) dj- U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Tuesday he supports strong oversight of his plan for the government to buy up to $700 billion of illiquid mortgage-related assets from struggling financial institutions and said he shares lawmakers' frustrations on executive compensation. "We need oversight, we need protection, we need transparency," Paulson told the Senate Banking Committee. "I want it, we all want it." Paulson said he has always been in favor of oversight for the rescue package, but that it would have been "presumptuous" to include that proposal in the initial three-page plan he gave to lawmakers last week since he considered that Congress's prerogative. Paulson said any oversight provisions must be done in a way that "let's this program work effectively, quickly." While he didn't specifically agree to Democrat proposals to limit executive compensation for companies that participate in the rescue plan, he said he shares their frustrations. Executive compensation and an oversight board are both key changes being offered in separate legislative proposals by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., and House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank, D-Mass.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 11:27:04 AM

YM 11,094

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 11:26:52 AM

DIA $111.00 +0.45% ... morning high ($111.38) juuuuust shy of overlapping DAILY Pivot and WKLY Pivot.

Keene Little : 9/23/2008 11:24:01 AM

So far the consolidation near the lows looks more bearish than bullish. While we could get another leg up for a larger a-b-c bounce off yesterday's low I don't think we'll see much of a rally until we get a new low and then we should get a correction of the decline from last Friday. However, if we do get another leg down to complete a 5-wave move down from Friday that would tell us the trend is back to the downside.

I'll continue to watch NDX since its pattern is a little cleaner than the blue chips at the moment. A rally above 1710 would be bullish so we'll see what happens if and when it gets up to that level. I'm trying to get a sense from yesterday's and today's price action where this market will head for at least the next few weeks. We could be close to getting enough clues to help support the higher-probability direction.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 11:23:01 AM

dj- US Grants Ethiopia $151 Million in Devt Aid

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 11:22:00 AM

dj- Staples CEO Exercises Options, Sells $25.5M in Stock

SPLS $23.41 +0.25% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 11:20:40 AM

I' not sure CME regional housing futures the way to go.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 11:20:11 AM

I (Jeff Bailey) am thinking ... "how can we find a way to let the MARKET set a price?" You know ... free market approach?

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 11:18:35 AM

Ugh ... Bernanke: Treasury's plan would help set market prices

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 11:16:01 AM

Bernanke addressing the "mark-to-market" issue. Good points and complex.

I think the current method paints the "worst case" for investors.

Problem is that it places "no value" on paper that is performing (payment still being made) and exacerbates liquidity crunch.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 11:08:28 AM

Relative Strength Chart of Gold vs. Silver Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 11:07:50 AM

Relative Strength Chart of Silver vs. Gold Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 11:04:35 AM

Beetle's Balanced (from 12/31/07 top ; 06/30/08 bottom) at this Link

Notable percentage differences between GLD and SLV. Continues today though with silver weaker. Silver more "industrial" than gold, but I'm thinking they've should be more "together" than they are.

Would not be looking new long GLD though.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 10:50:03 AM

Brazil's Bovespa ($BVSP) Link ... Off 1.08% at 50,984

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 10:45:33 AM

Brazil: $1.09B Aug Current Acct Deficit Vs. $2.11B July ... dj (partial) - Brazil posted an August current account deficit of $1.09 billion, narrower than $2.11 billion in July, as profit and dividend remittances by multinational companies eased, the central bank said Tuesday. Profit and dividend remittances in August totaled $1.93 billion, down from $3.14 billion in July. The fall in profit and dividend remittances helped counterbalance effects of a declining foreign trade surplus. The August foreign trade surplus was $2.27 billion, down from $3.3 billion in July. In August, the 12-month current account deficit reached $21.93 billion, equal to 1.45% of gross domestic product. That figure was higher than the 12-month total of $19.49 billion, or 1.41% of GDP, as of July. Foreign direct investment in August spurted ahead to $4.63 billion from $3.24 billion in July, the central bank said. Tweleve-month foreign direct investment reached $32.72 billion in August, up from $30.06 billion as of July.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 10:43:23 AM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $41.65 +1.88%, AIG $5.67 +20.12%, FNM $1.34 +69.62%, MSFT $26.08 +2.67%, FRE $1.40 +64.70%, SPY $121.57 +0.21%, INTC $19.01 +2.75%, WM $3.44 +3.30%, CSCO $23.48 +1.60%, ORCL $20.47 +3.64%

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 10:39:54 AM

dj- FHFA (update) ... U.S. home prices fell a seasonally-adjusted 0.6% from June to July, with markets in New England and the mid-Atlantic region seeing the sharpest price declines, a government agency reported on Tuesday.

Prices dropped 5.3% during the 12 months that ended in July, and 5.3% since their peak in April 2007, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which calculates the index.

In July, the monthly index fell to levels last seen in October 2005.

To calculate the index, FHFA uses the sales prices of houses backing mortgages that have been sold or guaranteed by Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE).

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 10:37:54 AM

OEF $56.75 +1.10% ... QCharts still AMEX:OEF today. May change tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 10:36:03 AM

DJ- iShares S&P 100 Index ETF Transfers to NYSE Arca

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 10:35:24 AM

DJ- FHFA: US Home Prices Fell 0.6% in July From June

Jane Fox : 9/23/2008 10:33:27 AM

Here is a look at the internals and as you can see they are bullish. AD ratio (top chart) above 1. AD volume (2nd chart) climbing. VIX and TRIN falling. Today you will notice the TRIN is very very low and I am thinking we may have had another infusion of cash into the markets again today. The AD line at +127 should not be reflected in a very low TRIN. Link

Keene Little : 9/23/2008 10:27:06 AM

NDX 1704 would be two equal legs up this morning, very close to the top of its down-channel from August.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 10:26:11 AM

Major Global Indexes, Currencies, Oil, Gold, HUI.X, OIX.X and XLF at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 10:20:40 AM

European Markets Link ... weaker acrossed the the board as U.S. session passes the 45-minute mark.

UK's FTSE-100 off 77 points, or -1.47% at 5,159, Germany's DAX off a fraction at 6,097, while France's CAC-40 down 1.23% at 4,171.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 10:18:03 AM

Asian Markets Link ... finished mostly lower. Japan's Nikkei-225 bucked a negative trend finishing up 169, or +1.42% at 12,090.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 10:12:23 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 9/23/2008 10:06:50 AM

The potential bull flag pattern on the NDX 10-min chart is shown on this 60-min chart that has the parallel down-channel from August, the top of which is near 1705 this morning: Link . So a rally above 1710 would be a potentially bullish move. Otherwise a consolidation near the lows followed by another drop below yesterday's low would give us an impulsive 5-wave decline and suggest last week's 2-day wonder rally is all there will be.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 9:59:51 AM

StockCharts.com's NYSE Bullish % ($BPNYA) Link

Dorsey/Wright's at 48.35%.

Keene Little : 9/23/2008 9:59:18 AM

NDX has formed a parallel down-channel for its decline from Friday morning and it takes a rally above 1710 to break its short-term downtrend. A rally above Friday morning's low at 1718.82 would negate a bearish wave count and leave the pullback as a bullish 3-wave correction (calling the down-channel a bull flag). NDX 10-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 9:57:47 AM

Bullish % All (BPALL) at this Link ... reversed back up to "bull confirmed" on Friday. Trough low was Wednesday at 26.47% (28.00% chart).

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 9:55:30 AM

Lennar estimates Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 9:54:43 AM

Lennar (LEN) $13.98 +1.74% ... Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 9:53:20 AM

dj- Bank of Canada To Inject C$4B Into Financial Markets

Keene Little : 9/23/2008 9:48:31 AM

Very subdued market this morning. I think the past 3 days of trading might have everyone a bit shell shocked and wondering what's next.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 9:47:48 AM

Paulson Testimony Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2008 9:46:30 AM

Bernanke Testimony Link

Jane Fox : 9/23/2008 9:39:31 AM

AD line is at a very neutral -77. I think we will be in a waiting pattern until Paulson and Bernanke finish.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2008 9:30:18 AM

I'm taking another day off, making up for my lack of vacations this year. Jane has mentioned the 9:30 am ET testimony of Fed Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson this morning, with both testifying before the Senate Committe on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs. The text of the prepared part of the testimony should be ready a few minutes before that time, but it will be the Q&A session that could provide some landmines. Please keep this ongoing testimony in mind as you're making trading decisions today.

As far as short-term technicals today, the OEX ended the day below potentially strong resistance on 15-minute closes up to 563.40 and on 30-minute ones, up to 563.82. It also ended the day just below the 38.2% retracement of the climb from Thursday's low into Friday's high. Until and unless the OEX can maintain 15- and 30-minute closes above those listed levels, it looks vulnerable to a 50% retracement, at 553.25 and perhaps even a 61.8% one, at 546.10. The Keltner levels warn us to factor in vulnerability lower, to about 540 at least. Don't take that as a written-in-stone guarantee, but do realize that, without that sustained move above those listed resistance levels, that vulnerability remains. That means that you should make sure you have prime setups for longs before you even consider them.

It might be better to avoid the potential landmines altogether. However, since futures are higher, let's look at potential gains if the OEX can surmount those resistance levels noted on 15- and 30-minute closes. The 30-minute chart shows potential Keltner resistance nearly coinciding with a 23.6% retracement of the climb off Thursday's low at about 569.25, so I would watch for potential resistance on 30-minute closes at that level, if it could get past the first level of resistance at 563.82. Past that, the next potentially strong resistance is at 575.70 on 30-minute closes, but could move higher before it's tested.

For now, assume nothing.

Jane Fox : 9/23/2008 9:20:53 AM

Here is your chart of Crude. Gee what happened to the biggest one day move in history yesterday? Link

Jane Fox : 9/23/2008 9:19:40 AM

Here are your overnight charts. I guess the only think I can say about them is no market broke its previous day low but not much else. Link

Jane Fox : 9/23/2008 9:11:15 AM

Headlines "Crude makes its biggest one day jump in History" when crude rallies to $130.00/bl. I warned you about this yesterday. That was the Oct contract and it had a measley 31K volume where as the Novemeber Contract, which didn't reach $130, had 131K volume. Look at the Crude continuous contract today and you will not see a jump to $130.00/bl yesterday.

Jane Fox : 9/23/2008 9:02:29 AM

Bernanke and Paulson are due to speak at 9:30ET this morning.

Keene Little : 9/23/2008 8:48:19 AM

Equity futures had a nice rise from yesterday's close to the high around 3:30 AM but then gave it all up heading into this morning. But there's been a push to get back to the flat line in the last 20 minutes (techs in the green). It's too easy to push futures around pre-market so I have no idea how this little bounce will follow through in the cash market. It did look to me like the price pattern was set up for at least a bounce today so be careful this morning if you're trying to short the market.

Keene Little : 9/23/2008 8:26:26 AM

If the majority of the people would send letters to their representatives saying we strongly object to the bailout of the financial institutions that squandered their money then just maybe we could stop the three stooges (Paulson, Bernanke and Cox) from squandering public money. These three, and their predecesors, proved they don't know what they're doing and yet want More power to "control" things. This is an outstanding open letter to Congress written by John Hussman dated yesterday: Link

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