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Keene Little : 9/24/2008 11:17:58 PM

Thursday's pivot table: Link

The path of least resistance remains down as the the market continues its trend of lower highs and lows. If we're to see a move lower on Thursday I see the possibility for a bounce first thing in the morning, perhaps up to a Fib projection for Wednesday's bounce near 1202 before rolling back over. That kind of bounce followed by a new low below Wednesday's would be a confirmation of the bearish price pattern. 30-min chart: Link

As for upside potential for the short-term bullish scenario (pink), we won't know if a bounce is just a correction of the decline from last Friday or the start of something bigger (such as a run back up to 1315-1350). I'll have to watch the form of the bounce to see if it gives some early clues in that regard. It takes a rally above 1250 to tell us it's very likely going to head higher.

I have a meeting in New York City Thursday morning to wrap things up and will therefore be away from the market until after lunch. Sorry for my absence--things should settle down for me once I get back to Seattle early next week (I start the drive Friday morning and through the weekend).

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 10:29:58 PM

European Markets at this Link

Tab Gilles : 9/24/2008 10:29:33 PM

Asian Stocks Decline, Led by Banks, on Tighter Lending Rates By Chua Kong Ho

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks dropped for a third day after credit markets tightened as U.S. lawmakers raised opposition to the government's plan to bail out banks.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. fell for the first time in four days after the Nikkei newspaper said the bank won't take a stake in Goldman Sachs Group Inc., contradicting earlier reports. National Australia Bank Ltd. lost 1.7 percent after lending rates between banks rose to the highest since January. Hanjin Shipping Co. slipped 3.1 percent as rates for carrying commodities slumped to a seven-month low.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 1.4 percent to 114.57 as of 9:33 a.m. in Tokyo. All 10 industry groups retreated, with about four stocks falling for each one that advanced.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 2.2 percent, the most in a week. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index slid 0.6 percent as Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. declined after a report the bank called for voluntary redundancies among staff in New Zealand. South Korea's Kospi Index fell 1.6 percent as Hynix Semiconductor Inc. retreated after MoneyToday reported its capital spending in 2009 may be lower than this year.

The S&P 500 Index slipped 0.2 percent yesterday as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke fended off congressional criticism of the $700 billion rescue proposal. S&P futures were little changed today.

The one-month London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for dollars jumped 22 basis points to 3.43 percent as banks clamped down on lending to each other amid doubts the U.S. plan will be enacted.

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of commodity-shipping rates, yesterday fell 6.1 percent, the steepest drop since June 12. The index has declined 50 percent this year as demand for shipping raw materials weakened with a slowing global economy.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 10:29:08 PM

Asian Markets at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 10:27:15 PM

Major Global Equities, Currencies, USO, GLD, HUI.X, OIX.X, XLF at this Link

Tab Gilles : 9/24/2008 10:04:10 PM

John McCain bails on David Letterman, and the host is not happy Link

OI Technical Staff : 9/24/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 9:56:06 PM

Pacholder High Yield (Semi-Annual Report (06/30/08) ... (.pdf file) Link

Tab Gilles : 9/24/2008 9:40:07 PM

Bush warns of long recession without rescue plan Link

Tab Gilles : 9/24/2008 9:36:49 PM

U.S. House backs temporary middle class tax relief Link

Tab Gilles : 9/24/2008 9:31:06 PM

President Bush Calls Obama and McCain Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 9:17:18 PM

Bush address ends ... ym 10,832

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 9:04:39 PM

Bush address ... YM 10,827 is off 27.

Tab Gilles : 9/24/2008 9:07:57 PM

With $3.5 Trillion in cash currently in MMA, according to Investment Company Institute (ICI) and hundreds of billions more getting injected by central banks around the world. Expectations are that any positive developments in Congress passing Paulson's plan, will make this money available to drive stock prices much, much higher. Link

Some economists argued that central banks are essentially printing money by injecting so much of it into the money supply recently - a move usually considered inflationary.

"The economic risks of this operation arise only if the credit lines extended by the world's banking system - the newly printed money - are not withdrawn promptly after the financial markets recover," said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. "In that case, a surge of liquidity may well lead to an explosion of demand for financial assets." Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 8:32:03 PM

Dems seek to slash bailout; Bush on TV tonight ... AP Story Link

Tab Gilles : 9/24/2008 7:13:46 PM

May 26, 2006


"For years I have been concerned about the regulatory structure that governs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - known as government sponsored entities or GSEs - and the sheer magnitude of these companies and the role they play in the housing market. OFHEO's report this week does nothing to ease these concerns. In fact, the report does quite the contrary. OFHEO's report solidifies my view that the GSEs need to be reformed without delay." Link

August 16, 2007

Schumer: If Bush Regulators Won't Lift Fannie And Freddie Mortgage Portfolio Caps, Congress Must Act Instead Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 5:44:34 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 5:16:47 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 5:06:04 PM

SEC NYSE no short list from 09/23 to 09/25 with INDU and SPX weightings as of today's open Link

Keene Little : 9/24/2008 4:46:28 PM

From a reader: I have 3 brokerage accounts. Yesterday I tried shorting CME in one of them, they could not borrow the shares for me.

I tried in the second one, I got a message saying ?CME is on the list of NO-SHORT?. I think they are practically banning all shorts by slowly adding all companies with significant liquidity to the list. They will leave us the companies that are either illiquid, or you don?t want to short in the first place and, they will say they never really banned short sales.

They might think this action puts a floor under the market?? WRONG!!! It will slow the bleed but not eliminate it, and, it will preclude short covering rallies!!!

The last point made is important, and Jeff made the same comment earlier today--take away the buying power of the shorts after a decline and you take away the safety net when real selling kicks in. This will backfire badly on the SEC (and therefore investors).

Tab Gilles : 9/24/2008 4:43:30 PM

Obama likely to keep debate as McCain seeks delay Link

Keene Little : 9/24/2008 4:25:41 PM

Where does it end?

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Twelve more companies, including IBM and H&R Block (HRB), have been added to the short-sale ban list as of Wednesday, according to information posted on the New York Stock Exchange's Web site. Other companies on the list are: Medco Health Solutions (MHS), Arbor Realty Trust (ABR), Developers Diversified Realty Corp. (DDR), MFA Mortgage Investments (MFA), American Safety Insurance Holdings (ASI), Landamerica Financial Group (LFG), PHH Corp. (PHH), Credicorp (BAP), Lexington Realty Trust (LXP), and Strategic Hotels & Resorts (BEE).

Last week, the Securities and Exchange Commission banned short selling in shares of certain financial institutions until Oct. 2 but the list has been expanded to include more companies.

What I'd like to know is how did IBM get on that list? Did they pay someone off to get there? Do you see how this only promotes even more distrust of the system and the SEC in this case. I'd like to be the first to sign the petition for Cox's removal.

Keene Little : 9/24/2008 4:15:28 PM

One of the reasons why I like parallel channels so much is because EW counts tend to stay within them. So even though I'm not confident of any particular count for the decline from Friday, I'll continue to draw channels for clues as to what's happening. On the 30-min chart I'm showing a channel that includes all the price action: Link

The bottom of the channel is below the 78.6% retracement at 1162 and that would be bearish confirmation that the market is breaking down. NDX continues to hold above its equivalent level near 1642. The top of the channel is currently close at 1191.40 tomorrow morning. Notice too that the 20-pma tends to act as a good guide for trending moves and has been holding SPX down since Monday. That's currently near 1194.

So stick with the trend if you're short and use today's high near 1197 as confirmation of a break of the downtrend (for either a stop or a long entry). Overnight price action is having very little relevance to the following day's price action so that's not helping us either. Just keep repeating to yourself, "flat is a position".

Keene Little : 9/24/2008 4:05:18 PM

This is one difficult market to apply EW Theory to. It's full of 3-wave moves and that continues to keep alive the possibility that we're going to see a strong rally out of this mess. Frankly I'd be uncomfortable going home with any position other than flat (or hedged).

Tab Gilles : 9/24/2008 4:01:55 PM

$VIX 35.97 +.25

$VXD 33.71 -.06

$VXN 36.79 +.29

$RVX 39.10 +.84

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 4:01:24 PM


Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 4:01:12 PM

NYSE NH/NL to the close 6/153

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 3:55:13 PM

EEV $99.99 -4.99% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 3:54:47 PM

EUM $92.17 -0.03% ...

Keene Little : 9/24/2008 3:53:59 PM

Actually the problem now is that we've added a crisis in confidence in our politicians to the crisis in confidence in our banking industry. Of course with the dismal approval rating for Congress this should come as no surprise. Americans are losing faith in government and businesses (actually this loss of confidence will become a global issue). It's all part of the socioeconomic changes seen in bear markets and the next leg down in the bear market that started in 2000 will usher in real fear this time.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 3:52:29 PM

$vix.x 36.16 +1.23% ...

Tab Gilles : 9/24/2008 3:52:24 PM

The decision on the $700B bill, is expected to be made either Friday or over the weekend. But I wouldn't rule out that the 9 point lead by Obama in the latest poll isn't a factor in McCain's campaign decision.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 3:51:22 PM

Swing trade put alert! ... for one (1) of the iShares Emerging Markets EEM Oct. $35 Puts (EEM-VI) at the offer of $2.25 ($2.21 x $2.25).

EEM $34.98 +0.43% ...

Tab Gilles : 9/24/2008 3:48:30 PM

Weekly EIA Report Link

Jane Fox : 9/24/2008 3:46:52 PM

The crisis isn't any worse today than it was on Monday.

Jane Fox : 9/24/2008 3:46:30 PM

Well maybe Tab but I am asking why now?

Jane Fox : 9/24/2008 3:46:11 PM

Dateline WSJ - ... The Arizona senator (McCain) compared the (credit crisis) situation to that facing the nation following the 2001 terrorist attacks, saying politics must be put aside for the moment.

"We must show that kind of patriotism now," he said. "Americans across our country lament the fact that partisan divisions in Washington have prevented us from addressing our national challenges. Now is our chance to come together to prove that Washington is once again capable of leading this country," he added.

Tab Gilles : 9/24/2008 3:45:41 PM

I agree with McCain's move to postpone debate, Jane. It is the "correct" thing to do...as his motto saids..."Country First".

Our country is facing a historical decision, $700B is alot of money. The campaign can wait a few days, I believe Obama should join McCain and be in DC.

Jane Fox : 9/24/2008 3:33:04 PM

I wonder why now.

Jane Fox : 9/24/2008 3:32:35 PM

John McCain suspends campaigning to work on economy, requests postponing Friday debate; asks Obama do the same.

Tab Gilles : 9/24/2008 3:26:02 PM

AIG Payments on U.S. Loan May Force Rapid Asset Sales Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 3:24:32 PM

AIG takes $85B deal from Fed ... AP Story Link

Keene Little : 9/24/2008 3:20:46 PM

Back below NDX 1660 would be a break back below its downtrend line from Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 3:19:09 PM

Treasury's close ... 13-week down 36 bp at 0.44%, 5-year down 13.4 bp at 2.889%, 10-year down 7.0 bp at 3.771% and 30-year down 5.6 bp at 4.378%.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 3:17:57 PM

YM 10,843

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 3:17:38 PM

NYSE a/d 1,403/1,644

Keene Little : 9/24/2008 3:12:29 PM

Looks like it might have been a head-fake break to the downside. The one bullish thing I see for NDX, other than the fact that it's more strongly in the green than the others, is that it is finding its broken downtrend line from last Friday to now be support--it just tested it again and it held.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 3:10:31 PM

dj- Govt. Rescue Plan open to smaller community banks

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 3:09:50 PM

dj- US Labor Dept to give $15.9M grant to Texas for Ike recovery
Grant will create 600 temporary jobs.

Keene Little : 9/24/2008 3:06:34 PM

NDX and SPX are now breaking today's uptrend lines. It could mean nothing more than we'll see price chop sideways for a little longer but it's certainly not bullish. Just be careful of any head-fake moves in this low-volume environment.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 3:05:24 PM

dj- Representative Frank: Need tax relief for Banks who hold GSE shares

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 3:03:29 PM

dj- FHLB $3B, 2-year Global Sold At 3.394% Yld, +138 basis points over Tsys

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 3:01:52 PM

dj- Argentina Aug Industrial production +4.1% on Year; +1.1% on Month

Tab Gilles : 9/24/2008 3:02:26 PM

It is, as Yogi Berra would say, "de ja vu all over again."


News of Warren Buffet buying $5B of Goldman Sachs stock sounds similar to the news back in 1929...


Stocks Up in Strong Rally; Rockefellers Big Buyers; Exchanges Close 2-1/2 Days

By Ferdinand Lundberg

Revived by spontaneous investment buying and declarations of large extra cash dividends by leading companies, and free of the delirium that has recently gripped share owners, the stock market yesterday received a fresh start and scored a record comeback. Volume on the Stock Exchange totaled 10,727,320 shares, the third largest day on record.

The high spot of the day from a stock market viewpoint was the statement by John D. Rockefeller that there was no need to destroy values and that he and his son, John D. Rockefeller Jr., had been heavy buyers of stocks for investment in the last few days, and would continue to buy at present prices...

-- New York Herald Tribune, October 31, 1929


A few weeks ago, ten banks, which include JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said they were committing $7 billion each for the pool. The pool would act as a signal to the marketplace that banks, brokerages, and other financial companies can lean on the fund to take care of borrowing needs.

Then... Gigantic Bank Pool Pledged To Avert Disaster as Second Big Crash Stuns Wall Street Largest Financial Powers in the City Meet After Day of Hysterical Liquidation Sinking Prices Below Thursday's

By Laurence Stern

After the stock market had come crashing down again in a veritable deluge of forced and hysterical liquidation, word sped through the financial district last evening that the largest banks in the city were prepared to exert their organized power this morning to prevent further disaster.

Arrangements described as "fully adequate" were completed at a conference at the offices of J. P. Morgan & Co. at Broad and Wall Streets...

Although no formal statement was issued, it was the consensus of those at the meeting that the worst of the liquidation is over and that a natural demand for investment stocks now available on the bargain counter should go far toward an immediate restoration of trading stability.

-- The World, October 29, 1929

Headlines Of The Great Stock Market Crash Of 1929 Link

How about banning short selling? After the 1929 crash, President Hoover publicly railed against short selling. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 2:59:19 PM

dj- Brazil's Mining and Energy Research Agency: Ethanol demand seen rising 150% by 2017

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 2:57:52 PM

dj- McCain to suspend campaign, return to DC for bailout talks

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 2:56:42 PM

dj- ConservativeHQ.com's Richard Viguerie ... "Treasury Secretary Henry Pauson's $700 billion bailout of Wall Street is economic fascism, pure and simple!"

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 2:49:31 PM

Geo Group (GEO) $21.39 -3.21% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 2:49:08 PM

Cornell Companies (CRN) $26.58 -2.81% ...

Keene Little : 9/24/2008 2:49:05 PM

The top of a similar up-channel for NDX is near 1681.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 2:48:45 PM

Corrections Corp. America (CXW) $23.41 -3.58% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 2:48:13 PM

dj- FAMM Poll: Americans Oppose Mandatory Minimums, Will Vote for Candidates Who Feel the Same - (partial) ... A new poll released today by Families Against Mandatory Minimums (FAMM) shows widespread support for ending mandatory minimum sentences for nonviolent offenses and that Americans will vote for candidates who feel the same way. -- Fully 78 percent of Americans (nearly eight in 10) agree that courts - not Congress - should determine an individual's prison sentence. -- Six in 10 (59 percent) oppose mandatory minimum sentences for nonviolent offenders. -- A majority of Americans (57 percent) polled said they would likely vote for a candidate for Congress who would eliminate all mandatory minimums for nonviolent crimes. "Politicians have voted for mandatory minimum sentences so they could appear 'tough on crime' to their constituents. They insist that their voters support these laws, but it's just not true," says Julie Stewart, president and founder of FAMM. "Republicans and Democrats support change and that should encourage members of Congress to reach across the aisle next year and work together to reform mandatory minimums. Mandatory sentencing reform is not a partisan issue, but an issue about fairness and justice that transcends party lines." During a time of financial crisis and uncertainty in the United States, reviewing current criminal justice policies and reforming mandatory minimums for nonviolent drug offenders is an option that Democratic and Republican lawmakers are considering. Although neither is endorsing FAMM's poll or report, Senator Jim Webb (D-Va.) and Rep. Bob Inglis (R-S.C.) are both concerned about America's prison and sentencing system. "America is locking up people at astonishing rates. In the name of 'getting tough on crime,' there are now 2.2 million Americans in federal, state, and local prisons and jails and over 7 million under some form of correction supervision, including probation and parole. We have the largest prison population in the world," says Senator Jim Webb (D-Va.), who is chairing a symposium on criminal justice and prison issues in October. "This growth is not a response to increasing crime rates, but a reliance on prisons and long mandatory sentences as the common response to crime. It is time for America's leadership to realize what the public understands - our approach is costly, unfair and impractical."

Keene Little : 9/24/2008 2:47:49 PM

So far we've got a little parallel up-channel for today's price action for SPX, which could be a bear flag. The top is near 1200 so a break out the top of it would be bullish whereas a break below the bottom of it, confirmed by a break below the last pullback low near 1187, would be bearish. It's just a choppy mess so far and difficult to assess what's next.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 2:43:32 PM

AMEX New Lows from DowJones at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 2:39:45 PM

HYG $89.44 +1.67% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 2:39:32 PM

LQD $92.38 +0.04% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 2:37:39 PM

Senator Frank, Chief of Financial Services Committee ... defers his 5-minutes of Q&A

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 2:35:29 PM

iShares S&P Natl. Muni (MUB) $97.12 -0.76% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 2:34:20 PM

Seeing many closed-end muni funds on the AMEX NL list ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 2:27:01 PM

Washington Mutual (WM) $2.61 -18.43% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 2:26:35 PM

S&P: Wash Mutual Inc. Downgraded to 'CCC' from 'BB-; WAMU Bank 'BBB-/A-3' affirmed

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 2:24:23 PM

dj- American Honda Finance (update) 5-year and 10-year seen at TSYs +3.875% according to source.

CAT got +3.25 ... speads widening further (credit tightening further)

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 2:21:18 PM

dj (source) - American Honda Finance to sell $550M 5-year bonds; $700M in 10-year Bonds

Tab Gilles : 9/24/2008 2:18:57 PM

Pimco's Gross says bailout to benefit Main Street: report Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 2:18:12 PM

S&P offers rare defense of Lehman 'A' rating ... Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 2:14:25 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 9/24/2008 2:05:07 PM

Treasury will make a profit on bailout: Pimco's Gross

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Bill Gross, co-chief investment officer of bond manager Pimco, said he believes that the Treasury Department will eventually make a profit on its purchase of toxic assets from Wall Street banks. "I estimate the average price of distressed mortgages [that Treasury will buy]...will be 65 cents on the dollar," said Gross in Wednesday's Washington Post. "Financed at 3-4% via the sale of Treasury bonds, the Treasury will therefore be in a position to earn a positive carry or yield spread of at least 7-8%," said Gross. He added, "My estimate of double-digit returns assumes lengthy ownership of the assets and is in turn dependent on the level of home foreclosures, but this program is, in fact, directed to prevent just that." Gross also said that proposals by Congressional Democrats to mandate forbearance on home mortgage foreclosures will be critical

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:59:30 PM

Correction to 01:57:19 ... Morgan Stanley's (MS) merger talks with Wachovia Corp. (WB) are over, say people familiar with the situation. The two companies were reportedly in talks with one another last week, as the banks witnessed stock prices plunge and investors lost confidence in the market. However, likely due to Morgan Stanley forming a strategic alliance and securing funding from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. (8306.TO) and now operating as a bank holding company, talks between the two companies have ceased. The Japanese bank plans on investing up to $8.4 billion in Morgan Stanley.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:58:27 PM

MS $26.78 -4.35% ...

WB $15.01 +1.76% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:57:19 PM

dj- Morgan Stanley: Merger talks with Wachovia over

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:55:59 PM

dj- Paulson: Accepts plan to limit pay of bailout co execs

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:53:32 PM

dj- NY Fed Releases Details on TSLF Options Auctions

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Wednesday reported the outcomes of the auctions of options to draw on its Term Securities Lending Facility liquidity tool.

The bank said the options auction on Aug. 27 saw $51 billion in bids submitted on the $25 billion offering amount. The par accepted stood at $24.998 billion, the bid to cover was 2.04 and the stop out rate was 0.02%.

The auction held on Sept. 10 saw $54.4 billion submitted on a $25.002 billion offering. The par accepted stood at $25 billion. The bid to cover was 2.18 and the stop out rate was 0.03%.

The New York Fed says the options program "is intended to enhance the effectiveness of TSLF by offering added liquidity over periods of heightened collateral market pressures, such as quarter-end dates."

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:51:30 PM

dj- Boeing: Customers depend on fluid, deep financial markets

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:50:56 PM

Boeing (BA) $57.51 +0.34% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:50:37 PM

dj- Boeing CEO: Conditions make Govt. Financial Rescue Plan necessary

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:49:49 PM

dj- Cinese Prime Minister: US Financial Crisis Impact Could Worsen

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:48:15 PM

I don't like 13s

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:48:07 PM


Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:47:30 PM


Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:47:24 PM


Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:46:30 PM

YM 10,903

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:45:56 PM

13 week down 36 bp at 0.44%

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:45:37 PM

NYSE a/d 1,429/1,576

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:44:41 PM

YM long stopped alert! ... 10,881

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:41:02 PM

NYSE a/d 1,466/1,535

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:40:33 PM

YM 10,901

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:38:34 PM

YM long alert! here at 10,901. Stop 10,881. Target 11,100

Keene Little : 9/24/2008 1:34:12 PM

SPX just hit its downtrend line from Friday through yesterday's high, at 1196. A little higher near 1201 is the level where the 2nd leg up from this morning would achieve 162% of the 1st leg up. I'm still not sure what to make of the short-term wave pattern so I'm looking for potential reversal levels.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:28:15 PM

"America, you wanted these affordable loans!"

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:27:55 PM

They can't say that, they won't say that!

Keene Little : 9/24/2008 1:27:49 PM

NDX is trying to break higher now and looks like it might be able to do it. A level to watch for possible failure is just shy of 1678 where the bounce off yesterday's late-afternoon low would have two equal legs up.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:26:54 PM

GLD $87.35 -1.09% ... ~$873.50 spot

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:25:43 PM

Swing trade long exit alert! ... for the 1/4 position in the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) at the bid of $13.18.

Keene Little : 9/24/2008 1:18:57 PM

The downtrend line for NDX from Friday is currently near 1670 so it would be a test of this morning's high and the trend line. Obviously a failure there would not look good for the bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:18:34 PM

dj- NYSE Eronext expects 30-day short-selling ban to be extended

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:16:32 PM

US 2-year Auction (results)

2.115%; 15.68% at high
bid-to-cover 2.21%
2.000% coupon

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:14:43 PM

dj via FOX News ... President Bush to address U.S. on rescue plan at 09:00 PM EDT

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 1:13:46 PM

dj- Canada PM: U.S. Fincl Rescue Plan Will Stabilize Mkts.

Keene Little : 9/24/2008 1:09:06 PM

Wake me when the market moves.

Jane Fox : 9/24/2008 1:05:07 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Hanesbrands Inc. said Wednesday that it will shut nine plants in five countries in the Western hemisphere and move some of the production to Asia, in a move that will cut about 8,100 jobs. The move is the latest in a wave of apparel makers consolidating and moving their production offshore to lower costs.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 12:53:24 PM

dj- Morgan Stanley, Goldman plan to keep commodities units

Morgan Stanley (MS) will request U.S. regulatory approval to keep its oil tankers, metals dealing and raw-materials businesses after becoming a commercial bank this week, Bloomberg reported Wednesday, citing a company spokesman. Morgan Stanley is already exempt from the restrictions that apply to its new status for as long as five years, the spokesman said. The report also quoted a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) spokesman as saying that becoming a bank wouldn't affect the company's commodities business.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 12:51:52 PM

US 2-year Notes: $645.328 Mln In Noncomps

Jane Fox : 9/24/2008 12:46:29 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- It is imperative that Congress pass the administration plan put forth by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to buy up to $700 billion in toxic debt because of the grave threat faced by a severe credit crunch, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday.

Members of Congress practically begged Bernanke for a rationale for passage of the controversial plan that they can take to their constituents. In response, Bernanke replied that every American would feel "direct" negative effects if the credit crunch was allowed to continue or worsen.

"Our modern economy cannot grow, cannot create jobs, cannot provide housing without effectively working credit markets," the chairman said.

"My only concern here today is to try to find a solution that will stabilize credit markets so they can do their job."

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 12:39:35 PM

HYG $88.79 +0.93% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 12:39:18 PM

LQD $92.14 -0.21% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 12:38:50 PM

dj- JP Morgan: Inflation, currency, debt ... On a more positive note, the bank said inflation is "rolling over" as the fall in commodity prices filters through. As a result, exposure to local interest rates stands out as a theme across emerging markets, particularly in short-term assets. But the pace at which investors have been withdrawing money from emerging market investments has picked up recently, and hedge fund redemptions are forthcoming, JPMorgan said. "Both should take a toll on emerging market assets well into 2009," it said. Foreign currency debt funds have seen withdrawals of $5.8 billion so far this year, while local currency fund flows turned negative in August and September, it said. JPMorgan said it forecasts total inflows for this year at between $10 billion and $15 billion - of which $9 billion has already been received - compared with $40 billion in 2007. JPMorgan has revised its year-end target for the Emerging Markets Bond Index Global to 300-350 basis points. Wednesday, the EMBIG was at 394 basis points, five basis points wider than Tuesday's close. The bank recommended staying in higher-quality emerging market assets and keeping a relatively low exposure to emerging market corporates and higher-risk sovereigns. "At valuations of 620 basis points [over U.S. Treasurys], U.S. double-B-rated [corporate] bonds are more attractive," it said.

Jane Fox : 9/24/2008 12:37:57 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Despite signs of a broad economic slowdown, and historic upheaval in the U.S. financial industry, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke seemed in no mood to step on the gas a bit and lower interest rates.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 12:37:16 PM

dj- JP Morgan: Russia ... For Russia, JPMorgan has lowered its 2009 GDP growth forecast to 5.8% from 6.5%.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 12:35:49 PM

dj- JP Morgan: Latin America ... For Latin America, the bank expects 4% GDP growth this year, and it revised 2009 growth down to 2.9% from 4.4%. It raised Brazil's GDP growth forecast for this year to 5.2% on the back of strong investment and consumption and despite the drag from external demand, but it cut its 2009 forecast to 3.2% from 3.8%. Mexico is already under pressure: JPMorgan expects just 1.8% growth this year and 2.2% in 2009 as banks tighten credit standards and the U.S. economy slows. The performance of commodity prices is likely to dictate the future for local currencies, particularly in Latin America, the bank said. The region's currencies have plunged since the correction in commodities prices began, and any further declines could create more pain in foreign exchange.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 12:34:22 PM

this is hitting the wires as I type ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 12:34:03 PM

dj- JP Morgan : China ... Growth across most emerging market regions will decline below potential in 2009, JPMorgan said. Emerging Asia - excluding China and India - is the region most sensitive to the potential recession in developed economies, and that has already shown up in the 2008 second-quarter gross domestic product data, JPMorgan said. "While we expect China to act to support growth and for Indian growth to be relatively more insulated from the external demand slowdown, the rest of [emerging Asia] is expected to turn in a second year of sub-par growth in 2009," JPMorgan said.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 12:32:34 PM

dj- JP Morgan slashes 2009 growth forecasts for Emerging Markets

Jane Fox : 9/24/2008 12:32:20 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Despite signs of a broad economic slowdown, and historic upheaval in the U.S. financial industry, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke seemed in no mood to step on the gas a bit and lower interest rates.

In testimony prepared for the Joint Economic Committee, Bernanke said that risks of higher inflation and risks of a serious downturn were both "significant" concerns.

For Fed watchers, this keeps the Fed stance on rates in balance, or "neutral," toward future interest rate moves.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 12:23:48 PM

Lennar (LEN) $14.66 +15.34% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 12:19:07 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/24/2008 12:16:44 PM

The only market not trading below its overnight low is the NDX futures (NQ). Link

Jane Fox : 9/24/2008 12:12:16 PM

The VIX and the S&P futures are telling us the market is in a holding pattern until we hear what Congress is going to do about the $700 billion bailout. Link

Keene Little : 9/24/2008 12:09:32 PM

The pullback from this morning's high looks like either a correction that will lead to a push higher or else it's "winding up" for a nasty spill lower. If NDX rallies to a new daily high it will also break its downtrend line from last Thursday and that would be bullish.

Therefore I'd try a trade on the long side with a break to a new daily high. In the meantime the trend is still down and based on that the short side is with the trend.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 11:59:45 AM

YM dip low was 10,789

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 11:59:12 AM

RKH $109.65 +0.55% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 11:55:33 AM

YM short stop alert! 10,824

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 11:54:01 AM

YM short lower stop alert! ... to 10,824.

YM 10,799

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 11:51:31 AM

YM short lower stop alert! to even.

YM 10,808

Keene Little : 9/24/2008 11:49:14 AM

If we go with the assumption that something is going to pass for this bailout scheme (after Congress makes loud gestures and angry statements (and prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that they're clueless and economically illiterate), we should expect the market to get a huge relief rally. That would support the pink wave count shown on the SPX daily chart. A rally all the way up to the downtrend line from October 2007 near 1350 could happen quickly.

If by chance Congress balks and wants it to go to committee for further study the market will have a little hissy fit and probably sell off very quickly and hard (fully supported at the moment by the dark red bearish wave count).

Therefore your trading decisions today need to take into account which way Congress will go (good luck). Another way of course is to place a strangle around this market and let the chips fall where they may.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 11:45:57 AM

YM short alert! ... here at 10,834. Stop 10,849. Target 10,743

Tab Gilles : 9/24/2008 11:40:05 AM



Keene Little : 9/24/2008 11:24:57 AM

The market remains weak but until it breaks down I keep thinking we'll get at least a bounce. The 60-min chart shows the bearish wave count (dark red) calling for a bounce up to at least the 1220-1225 area before heading lower again or short-term bullish with a rally above last week's high (pink): Link . This is shown in a little wider view on the daily chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 11:24:10 AM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $40.81 +0.56%, AIG $4.43 -11.40%, SPY $118.32 -0.17%, FNM $1.76 +34.45%, FRE $1.79 +35.60%, MSFT $25.58 +0.55%, INTC $18.85 +1.18%, CSCO $22.87 +0.65%, AAPL $128.74 +1.49%, WB $15.52 +5.22%,

Tab Gilles : 9/24/2008 11:22:20 AM

$VIX 36.22 +0.50 (1.4%) Link

$VXD 33.97 +0.20 (0.59%) Link

$VXN 36.24 +0.28 (0.77%) Link

$RVX 38.51 +0.25 (0.65%) Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 11:18:54 AM

Retail Gasoline Price Heat Map @ 10:00 AM EDT Link

Heatmap from 09/19/08 Link

Tab Gilles : 9/24/2008 11:02:53 AM

Europe Confidence Drops as Financial Turmoil Worsens Link

ECB Under Pressure Link

EURO 1.4665

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 11:10:40 AM

USO $87.08 +1.10% ... has slipped back below 61.8% conventional (02/06/08 low close and 07/14/08 high close) as well as the 09/22/08 October futures settlement benchmark price of $87.62.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 11:10:06 AM


Weekly Crude Oil stockpiles down 1.52 million barrels to 290.18M barrels.
Weekly Total Gasoline stockpiles down 5.89 million barrels to 178.74M
Weekly Total Distillate stockpiles down 4.17 million barrels to 125.45M
Weekly ULS Diesel (<15ppm Sulfur) down 3.44 million barrels to 70.49M
Weekly Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel down 1.99 million barrels to 37.09M
Weekly Heating Oil (>500ppm Sulfur) up 246,000 barrels to 35.98M

SPR saw a draw of 1.42 million barrels to 705.79M barrels. (see DOE of late).

Refinery Data
Weekly Gross Inputs fell by 1,885,000 barrels/day to 11.74 M B/D
Weekly Crude Oil Inputs fell by 1,733,000 barrels/day to 11.50M B/D
Percent Utilization of Oper. Capacity fell sharply to 66.71%
This has my # Days of Supply of Crude oil jumping to 21.7 days from prior week's 20.4.

Tab Gilles : 9/24/2008 10:54:55 AM

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices eased off earlier highs Wednesday after the government said supplies of gasoline fell more than expected and crude stockpiles posted a surprise decline.

U.S. light crude for October delivery rose $1.40 to $108.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil had traded up $2.40 to $109.01 a barrel just prior to the report's release.

In its weekly inventory report, the Energy Information Administration said crude stocks decreased by 1.5 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 19. Analysts were looking for a gain of 1.6 million barrels of crude oil, according to a consensus estimate of industry analysts surveyed by Platts, a global energy information provider.

Stockpiles of gasoline fell by 5.9 million barrels, while analysts were looking for a decrease of 5.1 million barrels.

Distillates, used to make heating oil and diesel fuel, fell by 4.2 million barrels. Analysts were looking for a decrease of only 1.8 million barrels in distillates.

The Gulf region was still working to regain footing after Hurricanes Gustav and Ike smashed the Gulf of Mexico and the Texas Gulf Coast, damaging production rigs and shuttering refineries.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 10:40:59 AM

UGA ... Form 8-K from 09/18/08 Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 10:39:39 AM

UGA .... not getting data.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 10:37:19 AM

USO $87.95 +2.11% ...

Tab Gilles : 9/24/2008 10:32:48 AM

ABX Index / $SPX Mortgage bonds, as tracked by the ABX Index has risen from it's recent lows of 40 to the 50 level, support/resistance back in March.

On January 17, 2006, CDS Indexco and Markit launched ABX.HE, a synthetic asset-backed credit derivative index, with plans to extend the index to other underlying asset types other than home equity loans. ABS indices allow investors to gain broad exposure to the subprime market without holding the actual asset-backed securities.

If the proposed $700B Bailout plan now in front of Congrerss is passed - restoring market confidence. I believe that the $SPXX could easily rally 10% up to the 1,300 level. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 10:32:42 AM

Some SIMILARITY showing up in my 4-week and 12-week SMA's as to week ended 04/04/08 to 04/18/08.

The decline in purchases ... may be in part due to up-tick in 30-year fixed, but may also be larger part of "banks unwilling/unable to lend."

Mentioning this morning during testimony of AUTO lending very tight and only to PRIME borrowers with high credit ratings.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 10:29:20 AM

MBA Weekly Application Surve (Table) that I track at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 10:22:29 AM

Those listening to testimony know what the senator is talking about ...

Jane Fox : 9/24/2008 10:19:31 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Resales of U.S. single-family homes and condos fell 2.2% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.91 million, the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected sales to hit 4.93 million. Resales have fallen 10.7% in the past year. The inventory of unsold homes on the market fell 7% to 4.26 million, an 10.4 month supply at the current sales pace. This is the lowest level since March. The median sales prices fell 9.5% in the past year to $203,100. For July, resales rose a revised 3.5%, compared with the prior estimate of a 3.1% rise.

Jane Fox : 9/24/2008 10:18:55 AM

AD line and internals are getting bearishier and bearishier. All internals except the TRIN which is still hanging around at a very bullish 0.76.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 10:17:32 AM

My 4-week SMA purchases index edged higher to 360.4 from last week's 354.2 measure. My 12-week purchases index edged lower to 334.7 from last week's 336.6 measure.

Jane Fox : 9/24/2008 10:14:18 AM

Here is part of an article I just read on Marketwatch.com.

Last Friday, the U.S. government waved the white flag and surrendered the capital market process when it banned short sales in the financials.

It was a profoundly sad day for the free market system. I felt as if I lost a close friend of 17 years that I was intimately involved with.

Over the weekend, I discovered there might have been more to that decision than I initially thought. There was chatter on the Beltway that we may have been the victim of economic terrorism, a coordinated short raid that originated in London and Dubai.

While the legitimacy of that remains to be seen, my source is well-respected. Further, as the goals of terrorism are economic destruction and social upheaval, it makes some sense. The stock market is the world's largest thermometer and breaking the capital market construct -- as some would say they did last week -- would effectively achieve both goals.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 10:09:49 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Surve found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 9/24/2008 10:09:24 AM

reposting from yesterday, for those who didn't catch the links to Sect. Paulson and Chairman Bernanke testimony statements... Link Link

Keene Little : 9/24/2008 10:07:53 AM

We're not exactly rallying but not dropping either. The market appears to be on hold until it figures out what's next with the bailout plan.

Jane Fox : 9/24/2008 10:05:45 AM

TRIN is very low again so there must have been a large infusion of cash again today.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 10:00:12 AM

This morning, I was listening to King of Agriculture (KOA) radio as morning alarm clock went off. Senator Allard (R-CO) was interviewed. He thinks something must be done, but not eager to turn over $700B of taxpayer dollars without some OVERSIGHT of how it is actually implemented and NO "golden parachute" for company execs. My feel is that we probably will not get a decision until this weekend.

13-week Treasury YIELD action would suggest liquidity getting tighter by the day.

Jane Fox : 9/24/2008 9:59:12 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said Wednesday he believes some form of Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's rescue plan for the U.S. financial system will pass, adding that he wouldn't have invested in Goldman Sachs this week otherwise.

Jane Fox : 9/24/2008 9:57:55 AM

I guess I don't have a lot of faith that the FBI will do a very good job of investigating any company. I have lost so much faith in the system of late.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 9:56:29 AM

Jane (09:28:26) / subscriber: Several weeks ago I posted news regarding investigation uncovering e-mail from Bear Sterns regarding housing/subprime. They've been under investigation for months.

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 9:50:33 AM

Today's Global Econ. Calendar Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 9:48:24 AM

Swing trade long raise stop alert! ... for the 1/4 position in the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) $13.30 +0.91% ... to $12.60 (from $11.75).

Jeff Bailey : 9/24/2008 9:44:07 AM

13-week Treasury Yield ($IRX.X) is down 40 bp at 0.40% ... DEFENSIVE in my opinion.

Jane Fox : 9/24/2008 9:40:03 AM

AD line is a neutral +97. Looks like the market is waiting to see if the bailout package gets approval or not.

Jane Fox : 9/24/2008 9:32:45 AM

Washington Mutual is keeping a very close eye on what Congress will do about the $700 billion bailout package because it will be the next to fall if the deal takes too much longer or does not get approval. The Office of Thrift Supervision (the agency overseeing WM) is pushing the company to broker a deal that would break up its operations.

Jane Fox : 9/24/2008 9:28:26 AM

Don't you all think Bear Sterns should be included in the list of companies being investigated by the FBI?

Keene Little : 9/24/2008 9:21:59 AM

The bulk of the overnight gains in equity futures have slowly bled off and are currently closer to their pre-market lows just after 7:30 AM. The potential for a bounce this morning requires the market to rally right away.

Jane Fox : 9/24/2008 9:20:15 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The FBI is investigating four big U.S. financial institutions whose collapses helped trigger the government's proposed $700 billion plan to rescue troubled financial markets, according to media reports late Tuesday.

The Associated Press, citing unnamed law enforcement officials, reported that the FBI is investigating potential fraud at mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and insurance giant American International Group Inc . Wall Street brokerage Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. is also under investigation, the AP reported, citing a senior law enforcement official.

The AP reported that the investigations are in the very early stages and will focus on the companies and the individuals who ran them. The FBI's preliminary inquiries are focusing on whether fraud helped cause some of the troubles, The Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition, citing unnamed senior law-enforcement officials.

The report comes following a day of testimony about the proposed plan by top U.S. financial officials on Capitol Hill. Members of the Senate Banking Committee expressed concerns about how the plan will work while Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke defended the government's plan to buy bad assets from Wall Street firms, saying it will get credit flowing again.

Linda Piazza : 9/24/2008 9:19:09 AM

Family issues will again take me away from the markets today. In fact, my family is gearing up for another round of tests, therapies and surgeries for my four-year-old granddaughter, and I'm currently evaluating my ability to contribute on a regular basis.

For today, however, futures are obviously higher. Yesterday, the OEX ended the day on potentially strong Keltner support on 30-minute closes near 541.89, so it was set up technically for a bounce, Warren Buffett's Goldman deal or not. Remember, when you think about that deal, that Buffett is certainly one of those who can afford to enter and endure some ups and downs. Is your account and time frame big enough to do so? Do you have his patience or will you sell again if there's a dip? Ask yourself these questions when you decide whether to follow Buffett's lead.

If the OEX bounces, then, where might it go? Extrapolating where the OEX might go from the ES futures distance above the SPX futures' fair value, he 30-minute chart suggests that there might be resistance on 30-minute closes currently at about 553.70 but likely to be driven a little higher by an early bounce. If the OEX gets past that, the 30-minute chart shows likely strong resistance on 30-minute closes near 559.50-561, but also likely to be driven a little higher by an early bounce. If the OEX tests that and doesn't immediately pierce it and stay above it, I would certainly watch for rollover potential there, protecting any bullish gains for those brave enough to venture a bullish trade yesterday near the close. I certainly wasn't one of those. Plan now, ahead of time, how you'll react if that 559.50-561 zone should be tested, particularly if it's being tested as the 10:00 Existing Home Sales number is released.

Jane Fox : 9/24/2008 9:17:39 AM

Today at 10:00 we have the Existing Home Sales and Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies. Then we have the 10:35 Crude report and at 2:30 forexfactory.com shows Bernanke testifying again.

Jane Fox : 9/24/2008 9:16:07 AM

It certainly looks like Crude's resistance will be $110.00 today. I know I will be watching that level very closely today and will not be taking a long anywhere near it. Link

Jane Fox : 9/24/2008 9:05:18 AM

Paulson and Bernanke faced an unfriendly Senate Banking Committee yesterday although the FED chairman warned inaction by Congress could lead to more trouble and the credit markets are still in jeopardy of seizing up. This would be higher unemployment, foreclosures continuing to spiral upward and higher inflation for everyone.

Jane Fox : 9/24/2008 9:00:47 AM

If the DOW futures get overbought or oversold intraday I sometimes play the reactionary bounce and take a position overnight. Right after the futures markets opened last night I placed an order to go long then went and had supper. When I came back to check the order it had not only been filled but had reached target as well. I am not sure what spurred the overnight markets although it could have been the Buffet news. Link

Jane Fox : 9/24/2008 8:52:21 AM

Dateline WSJ - Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said it will get a $5 billion investment from billionaire Warren Buffett's company, marking one of the biggest expressions of confidence in the financial system since the credit crisis intensified early this month.

The deal is the latest in a series of dramatic events that have reshaped American finance this month, from the federal takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the bankruptcy filing of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. to the bailout of American International Group Inc. and steps by Goldman and Morgan Stanley to become commercial banks.

The move by Mr. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. capped a day of bruising hearings in Congress over the fate of the Treasury Department's plan to buy $700 billion in distressed assets from financial institutions, in a bid to shore up the banking system. The plan is still expected to pass, though coming under increasing fire.

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