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OI Technical Staff : 9/26/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 8:57:31 PM

IWM $70.63 +0.46%
DIW-JS $2.33 x $2.39

RVX.X 38.37 +5.47%

DIW-JS was entered yesterday at offer of $2.49. IWM was $70.92. RVX.X was 36.47.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 8:57:28 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 8:57:22 PM

Good luck on your trip Keene!

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 5:54:15 PM

Swing trade covered long alert! ... for thirty (30) shares of National City (NCC) at the offer of $3.65.

Covered by the two (2) NCC-VQ.

No stop, target $9.00.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 5:35:15 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 4:37:28 PM

CNBC guest ... mentions ACORN ... sensitive for certain, but America wants the truth!

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 4:27:29 PM

Federal Reserve (Assets and Liabilities of Comm. Banks Link

Note: Interbank loans

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 4:19:38 PM

US Bank Business Loans Up $19.2 Bln In Latest Week

U.S. banks' commercial and industrial loans rose $19.2 billion to about $1.531 trillion in the week ended Sept. 17, the latest week for which data are available, the Federal Reserve said Friday.

That followed a $2.8 billion decrease the previous week.

Jumbo certificates of deposit grew $19.7 billion to about $2.161 trillion in the latest weekly data, after growing $13.3 billion the previous week. Revolving home equity loans rose $1.5 billion to $532 billion after growing $2.9 billion the previous week.

Keene Little : 9/26/2008 4:18:27 PM

I hope everyone has a great weekend. I hit the road tomorrow (New York to Seattle) so I'll check in Sunday night to see how the futures are reacting to any news and then sporadic coverage on Monday and Tuesday as I get a signal (very spotty out west in those sparsely populated states). Wish me luck!

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 4:15:18 PM

dj- Wachovia (WB) and Citigroup (C) In Merger Talks

Keene Little : 9/26/2008 4:08:47 PM

Even SPX got a big push into the green for the close. But again, the majority of stocks did not participate in this afternoon's jam job (trying to get shorts out of the market again). NYSE slightly overshot its Fib projection for two equal legs up (7881) and 62% retracement (7891). It's a picture-perfect setup for a gap down and selloff on Monday. I of course have no idea if that's what will happen but I do like the setup for it (for a long put option play only). NYSE 5-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 4:07:01 PM

YM 11,165 ...

VXO.X 39.41 +7.23% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 4:03:25 PM

RVX.X 38.34 +5.38% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 4:02:54 PM

IWM $70.60 +0.42% ... if we close here pivot will be $71.58

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 4:01:32 PM

For those that do not follow the Treasury Department, George Schultz is former Treasury Secretary. Link

Keene Little : 9/26/2008 4:00:59 PM

This is the setup for next week. We could drop straight from this afternoon, or possibly after a little higher to 1228.47. A rally back above 1248 would strongly suggest a big rally into early/mid October. 30-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 3:59:31 PM

dj- George Shultz: Urges Congress and Politicians to Act

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 3:58:40 PM

dj- Greenspan: Urges Congress and Politicians to Act

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 3:57:34 PM

Argentina: August Trade Surplus $2.25B vs. $313 Mln.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 3:55:25 PM

IWM $70.30 (unch) ... if here then Pivot=$71.48

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 3:49:48 PM

RUT.X 702.55 -0.45%
NDX 1,672.43 -0.89%
OEX.X 565.00 +0.72%, DJX.X 11,129 +0.97%
SPX.X 1,211 +0.14%

Keene Little : 9/26/2008 3:48:52 PM

The DOW is nicely in the green (+113) while NDX is in the red (almost -1%). It could be different this time but that kind of intermarket divergence is generally not healthy and bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 3:48:22 PM

RVX.X 38.85 +6.78%
VXN.X 36.96 +6.02%
VXO.X 39.28 +6.88%
VIX.X 34.67 +6.63%

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 3:47:06 PM

No addition NYSE SEC "no short" updates at this time.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 3:44:50 PM

Imperative for traders to understand what the volatility measure say, but more importantly "don't say"

Keene Little : 9/26/2008 3:43:32 PM

OK, the setup is looking good for the short play. Just know the dangers in holding a short play over the weekend. Let me put it this way, you'd be nuts to hold over a short futures position.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 3:42:21 PM

DIW-JS $2.20 x $2.24

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 3:41:39 PM

RVX.X 38.92 +6.98% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 3:41:01 PM

IWM $70.05 -0.35% ... should the IWM close here, next week's WKLY Pivots would be. $64.81, $67.41, Piv=$71.40, $74.01, $77.97.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 3:35:02 PM

US 7-Day Bill Auction results posted

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 3:34:41 PM

US 34-day Bill Auction results posted

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 3:34:09 PM

US to sell $26 Bln in reopened 3-month bills Monday

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 3:32:56 PM

2000 NCC-AZ crossed at $1.80

NCC $3.46 -30.66% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 3:28:17 PM

USO $86.50 -0.21% ... prarie dogs WKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 3:23:24 PM

VIX.X 35.44 +7.98% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 3:23:01 PM

NCC $3.52 -29.45 ...

NCC-AZ $1.55 x $1.80

Keene Little : 9/26/2008 3:21:48 PM

If this afternoon's pullback is finished, two equal legs up from today's mid-day low would be at SPX 1211.24, in between the 62% and 78.6% retracements. For the NYSE two equal legs up would be at 7881, just under a 62% retracement at 7891. That's the setup I'd like to see going into the close in order to place my bet (on red).

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 3:14:51 PM

Argentina: August shopping mall sales +13.8% on Yr; -1.1% on Mo

Keene Little : 9/26/2008 3:13:30 PM

As we head into the final hour of trading we have to wonder who's going to be more afraid of the dark. Guessing what Congress will be able to do and therefore where the market could head on Monday (Sunday night) is no better than flipping a coin. Holding a trade over the weekend is not much better than placing a bet with your money on red (or black if you're bullish).

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 3:13:04 PM

5.6 million blocked in NCC at $3.50

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 3:11:58 PM

Wachovia (WB) $8.35 -39.12% ... slips to session low.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 3:10:54 PM

Sonic Corp. (SONC) $14.61 -5.86% ... reporting frachisees have been notified by GE Capital that it will temporarily stop financing new loans. GE Capital will continue to honor pre-existing financial agreements.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 3:09:05 PM

McDonald's (MCD) $62.13 -0.22% ... Bank of America declines to increase lending on existing loans to frachisees.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 3:05:12 PM

US Mint: Suspends sale of 24-karat gold coins

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 3:03:39 PM

EEM $35.66 -3.75% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 3:03:10 PM

Brazil's Govt: Makes comment regarding impact of U.S. politics and country's (Brazil) liquidity issues.

Keene Little : 9/26/2008 3:02:02 PM

Price action is doing as I suspected it would today--just chewing up time heading into the weekend. The pullback from this afternoon's high is looking like a bull flag so another leg up into the close could happen (ideally after one more drop lower in its current consolidation). If that happens and SPX stays below 1214 (78.6% retracement of the decline from yesterday) I'll take a couple of puts home with me over the weekend.

It's a bit of a lottery play (although I'll like the EW setup for the short side) so consider it throw-away money which you'll be doing if Congress passes a bill over the weekend that the market likes. By the same token, any disappointment over failure to pass a bailout bill will likely cause a mini panic in the market. That's certainly the EW setup so far.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 2:57:27 PM

WM $0.16 -90.53% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 2:56:54 PM

NCC $3.50 -29.85% ... might be part of WFC in the future. If the price is right!

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 2:56:05 PM

WFC $37.10 +8.70% ... #2 stallion.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 2:55:40 PM

Tab! ... JPM $46.36 +6.62% ... Best of Breed!

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 2:53:13 PM

Sssssh Jimmy C. You're giving away the great payout!

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 2:50:56 PM

Agency purchase closed ... Fed bought $4.5 Bln

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 2:48:42 PM

IRX.X up 12 bp at 0.83% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 2:45:35 PM

That's a 58,000 bbl/day refinery.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 2:44:26 PM

DOE: Delivering 200,000 Bbls SPR to Placid Oil La. Refinery

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 2:34:30 PM

S&P: Takes Step In Moving Starwood Rating To "junk"

Standard & Poor's took its first step to putting Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc.'s (HOT) credit rating in junk territory, citing continuing weak expectations for the travel industry. Changing its ratings outlook to negative "reflects prospects for an extended economic slowdown in the U.S.," said credit analyst Emile Courtney. He added the slump is likely to cause industry revenue per available room to be flat to down slightly this year and fall up to 5% in 2009. Starwood's European operations will also be affected, as Courtney said expected growth slowdowns will further affect results, resulting in the company's 2009 earnings likely falling more than previously projected. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters project a 2% profit increase to $2.25 a share. S&P's corporate credit rating for Starwood is BBB-, the lowest investment-grade level. Earlier Friday, JPMorgan Chase cut its investment rating on Starwood stock to neutral from overweight, a downgrade that followed Morgan Stanley's cut to equalweight on Thursday. Hotels are experiencing less corporate travel and tougher rate negotiations, based on recent checks by JPMorgan, which also noted higher cancellations of group travel plans and softening international revenue. JPMorgan expects lodging companies to be cautious on their 2009 outlooks, with results the coming two quarters anticipated to be "very weak."

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 2:29:57 PM

NCC profile page Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 2:26:26 PM

NCC $3.58 -28.25% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 2:25:55 PM

No stop on the NCC-VQ, target $2.50 in the option.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 2:25:01 PM

Swing trade put alert! ... for two (2) of the National City NCC Oct. $3 Puts (NCC-VQ) at the offer of $0.80.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 2:22:46 PM

National City (NCC) $3.676 -26.45% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 2:22:22 PM

NY Fed Agency Discount Note Purchase Closes 02:35 PM EDT

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 2:17:44 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

VIX.X and SPX.X benchmarks pretty good from 10:00 and 02:00

Tab Gilles : 9/26/2008 2:16:34 PM

WJPAI $9.10/$9.25 vol 275

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 2:06:50 PM

Deere & Co. (DE) $55.13 -4.08% ...

Tab Gilles : 9/26/2008 2:06:33 PM

JPM $45.6 +$2.13 (4.9%)

WJPAI $8.90/$9.2

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 2:06:22 PM

CNBC ... noting drop in fertilizer stocks. Farmers unable to access credit facilities due to credit market illiquidity.

Keene Little : 9/26/2008 1:49:09 PM

SPX is holding onto its uptrend line from the September 18th low (dipped slightly below it this morning) so it's becoming a more important trend line to watch. A break back below 1190 would confirm the break of the uptrend. In the meantime though it's looking like there could be a concerted effort to lift this market back up so the pink wave count still has potential. 120-min chart: Link

One other possibility that's not shown is a slightly larger a-b-c bounce off Wednesday's low to correct the decline from last Friday. Two equal legs up in that case would be at 1228.47. A rally back above yesterday's high would have me looking at that level for a possible reversal back down.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 1:48:36 PM

OEX.X 561.27 +0.05% ...
VXO.X 40.59 +10.44% ...

Tab Gilles : 9/26/2008 1:32:25 PM

Ted Spread

Value 2.93

Change -0.088

% Change -2.925

High 3.11

Low 2.81

Open 3.02

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 1:32:03 PM

HMO.X +2.44%, BTK.X +1.11%, DJUSHB +0.99%, XAL.X +0.61%, RLX.X +0.59%

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 1:25:30 PM

NYSE a/d 474/2,328

NASDAQ a/d 961/1,842

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 1:25:03 PM

IRX.X up 11 bp at 0.82% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 1:24:24 PM

The volatility measures sure didn't work for us day trade bears so far today.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 1:22:28 PM

RUT.X 700.20 -0.78%
NDX.X 1,667.39 -1.18%
$DJI 11,108 -0.03% , OEX.X 558.65 -0.40%
SPX 1,200 -0.70%

Keene Little : 9/26/2008 1:21:19 PM

Since I consider the NYSE a little better indicator of true market direction I'll keep an eye on it. The 38%, 50% and 62% retracements are at 7838, 7864 and 7891, resp. At a high near 7824 so far in its bounce it has not made it up to the 38%. A down-up sequence from here could set up the a-b-c bounce off this morning's low.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 1:21:00 PM

RVX.X 38.70 +6.37%
VXN.X 37.02 +6.19%
VXO.X 40.74 +10.85%
VIX.X 35.56 +8.31% ...

Keene Little : 9/26/2008 1:18:16 PM

No surprise, the DOW is the first back into the green. SPX is challenging its gap once again. Gap closure is at 1210.86 so something to watch for potential resistance if it gets there. A 50%-62% retracement of the declin from yesterday gives a Fib target zone of 1204.72-1208.34. Ideally we'll see a 3-wave bounce up into this area (only one leg up so far) to set up an opportunity to test the short side.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 1:15:46 PM

SPX 1,202 and session high

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 1:15:29 PM

IRX.X up 10 bp at 0.81%

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 1:15:08 PM

NYSE a/d 455/2,341

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 1:14:42 PM

VIX.X 35.85 +9.23% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 1:14:24 PM

VXO.X 41.51 +12.95% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 1:14:19 PM

VXO.X 41.51 +12.95% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 1:13:54 PM

YM Shorts stop alert! ... 11,025

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 1:08:55 PM

YM short alert! here at 10,993. Stop 11,025. Target 10,905

Tab Gilles : 9/26/2008 1:06:21 PM

JP Morgan (JPM $45.10 +$1.62 (3.84%) / WJPAI call $$8.50 Bid --$8.70 Ask

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 1:06:16 PM

VXO.X 41.56 +13.08% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 1:05:46 PM

NYSE a/d 354/2,433

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 1:04:28 PM

YM short stop alert! 11,011

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 12:53:04 PM

YM 10,980 ... did see 10,998 post profile.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 12:52:15 PM

IRX up 8 bp at 0.79% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 12:51:32 PM

YM short adjust stop alert! ... to 11,011

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 12:47:21 PM

WB $9.84 -28.10% ... probes morning low.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 12:35:13 PM

YM 10,950 ... holding tough.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 12:34:33 PM

VXO.X 41.66 +13.36% ... WKLY R1 just ahead at 42.93. Gap open was to DAILY R2 (39.61)

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 12:31:50 PM

VIX.X 36.13 +10.08% ... pressed against DAILY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 12:30:41 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/26/2008 12:30:36 PM

The VIX is telling us that the markets are heading lower unfortunately during these uncertain times I'm not even putting my money on the VIX. Link

Tab Gilles : 9/26/2008 12:19:54 PM

The debate is on; McCain agrees to participate Link

Keene Little : 9/26/2008 12:16:34 PM

The DOW is holding up rather well compared to the other indices but in this case I believe it's getting some help. The NYSE, as a larger basket of stocks, is probably more reflective of what's really happening in the stock market.

Tab Gilles : 9/26/2008 12:15:44 PM

US Treasury Dept Press Release

Fact Sheet: Final Report of the Advisory Committee on the Auditing Profession

September 26, 2008 HP-1158

Fact Sheet: Final Report of the Advisory Committee on the Auditing Profession

The U.S. Treasury Department's Advisory Committee on the Auditing Profession adopted a Final Report containing more than 30 recommendations to improve the sustainability of the public company auditing profession. The report is separated into three sections by principal areas of focus.

Human Capital recommendations focused on improving accounting education and strengthening human capital, including:

Implementation of accounting education curricula and content that continuously evolves to reflect current market developments to help prepare new entrants to the profession. Improvement of the representation and retention of minorities in the auditing profession through mentoring programs and recruiting at community colleges. Ensuring an adequate supply of qualified accounting faculty through public and private sector funding to meet future demands and help prepare students to execute high quality audits. Development and maintenance of demographic data on the accounting profession so that the profession can understand the human capital situation and its impact on the profession's future and sustainability. Study of the future of education for the accounting profession, including the potential for graduate schools of accounting, to determine the best way to educate students to deal with the challenging financial reporting and auditing environment.

Firm Structure and Finances recommendations focused on enhancing auditing firm governance, transparency, responsibility, communications, and audit quality, including:

Creation of a national center at the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board to provide a forum for auditing firms and other market participants to share their fraud detection experiences in order to improve audit quality. Granting accountants licensed in one state with reciprocity to practice in other states to foster a more efficient operation of the capital markets given the multi-state operations of many public companies and multi-state practices of many auditing firms. Exploration of the feasibility of appointing independent members with full voting power to firm boards and/or advisory boards to improve the governance and transparency of auditing firms. Enhancement of disclosure requirements regarding public company auditor changes will improve transparency and enhance investor confidence. Enhancements to make the auditor's standard reporting model more useful to investors by including more relevant information, such as key accounting estimates and judgments. Mandating the engagement partner's signature on the auditor's report to improve accountability among auditing firms. Requirement for larger auditing firms to produce a public annual report with relevant firm information and file on a confidential basis with the PCAOB audited financial statements to improve transparency at auditing firms. The Concentration and Competition recommendations focused on ways to increase audit market competition and auditor choice, including:

Having the PCAOB monitor potential sources of catastrophic risk at auditing firms to prevent reduced auditor choice and significant market disruptions. Creation of a mechanism for the preservation and rehabilitation of troubled larger public company auditing firms to prevent reduced auditor choice and significant market disruptions. Development and publication of key indicators of audit quality and effectiveness to promote competition and choice in the industry based on audit quality. Promotion of the understanding of and compliance with auditor independence requirements to enhance investor confidence in the quality of audit processes and audits. Adoption of annual shareholder ratification of public company auditors by all public companies to enhance the audit committee's oversight to ensure that the auditor is suitable for the company's size and financial reporting needs. Enhancement of collaboration and coordination between the PCAOB and its foreign counterparts so that investors can be confident that auditing firms of all sizes are contributing effectively to audit quality.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 12:12:52 PM

HUI.X 333.39 -0.80%
DJUSHB 333.93 +2.81%

Tab Gilles : 9/26/2008 12:11:02 PM

Dept. of U.S. Treasury Press Release

September 26, 2008 HP-1159

Treasury Advisory Committee on the Auditing Profession Adopts Final Report

Washington - The U.S. Treasury Department's Advisory Committee on the Auditing Profession, led by co-chairs Arthur Levitt, Jr. and Donald T. Nicolaisen, voted today to adopt its Final Report containing more than 30 recommendations to improve the sustainability of the public company auditing profession.

"The Advisory Committee members, particularly Co-Chairs Levitt and Nicolaisen, have devoted a great amount of effort and time developing the recommendations to sustain a vibrant and robust auditing profession," said Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr. "Their work will contribute to and shape the necessary work of encouraging investor confidence in our financial markets."

Recommendations focused on three specific areas: improving accounting education and strengthening human capital; enhancing auditing firm governance, transparency, responsibility, communications, and audit quality; and increasing audit market competition and auditor choice. For more information, please see the Final Report Fact Sheet.

Secretary Paulson created the committee in May 2007 to examine key issues facing the auditing profession to encourage greater investor confidence. He tapped former Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Levitt and former SEC Chief Accountant Nicolaisen as co-chairmen to lead the committee.

"The health of the U.S. accounting industry is an essential element in the coming decade of transparency which will impact every business, legislative, and rule-making judgment both domestically and internationally. Reliable numbers from accountants mindful of their public responsibilities are critical to the competitive success of U.S. companies," Co-Chair Levitt said. "The continuing health of auditing firms, both large and small, has been the mandate of a diverse commission representing both industry and investor interests. This final report will provide industry and policymakers with a template for change."

"This is the first study of its kind since enactment of Sarbanes-Oxley and the Committee's work reinforces the critical role of the independent auditor to enabling trust and confidence in our capital markets," said Co-Chair Nicolaisen. "The Committee members brought exceptional intellect and experience to the process and I'm extremely appreciative of their efforts to work toward consensus views. Their recommendations are sound and their enactment will strengthen the auditing profession."

Committee members represented a diverse set of views, including investors, auditors, financial institutions, large and small public companies, lawyers, former regulators, and universities.

Secretary Paulson hosted a conference at Georgetown University in March 2007 to examine ways to improve the competitiveness of U.S. capital markets. Secretary Paulson and conference participants identified financial reporting and investor confidence as major factor in our domestic markets' competitiveness. The Committee held its first meeting in October 2007.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 12:10:15 PM

YM Short alert! here at 10,945. Stop 11,000. Target 10,825

Tab Gilles : 9/26/2008 12:08:28 PM

Federal Reserve Press Release

Release Date: September 26, 2008

For release at 2:00 a.m. EDT

Central banks have been employing coordinated measures designed to address the pressures in global money markets. Most recently, central banks have acted together to inject dollars into the overnight markets. Using their reciprocal currency arrangements (swap lines) with the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Swiss National Bank today are announcing the introduction of operations to provide U.S. dollar liquidity with a one-week maturity. These operations are designed to address funding pressures over quarter end. Central banks continue to work together closely and are prepared to take further steps as needed to address the ongoing pressures in funding markets.

Federal Reserve Actions To assist in the expansion of these operations, the Federal Open Market Committee has authorized a $10 billion increase in its temporary swap facility with the ECB and a $3 billion increase in its facility with the Swiss National Bank. These expanded facilities will now support the provision of U.S. dollar liquidity in amounts of up to $120 billion by the ECB and up to $30 billion by the Swiss National Bank.

In sum, these changes represent a $13 billion addition to the $277 billion previously authorized temporary reciprocal currency arrangements with other central banks. In addition to the swap lines with ECB and the Swiss National Bank, temporary swap lines previously have been authorized with: the Bank of Japan ($60 billion), the Bank of England ($40 billion), the Reserve Bank of Australia ($10 billion), the Bank of Canada ($10 billion), the Bank of Sweden ($10 billion), the National Bank of Denmark ($5 billion), and the Bank of Norway ($5 billion).

These arrangements have been authorized through January 30, 2009.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 12:02:49 PM

National City (NCC) $2.80 -44.08% ... run on the bank.

Tab Gilles : 9/26/2008 11:58:07 AM

$VIX 35.73 +2.91 $VXD 33.96 +2.86 $VXN 37.04 +2.18 $RVX 33.78 +2.40

Tab Gilles : 9/26/2008 11:56:38 AM

JP Morgan (JPM)$44.33 +$0.87 (2.07%)

WJPAI -- Jan. 2010 $45 Call-- Bid $8.20/ Ask $8.50

Keene Little : 9/26/2008 11:53:13 AM

NYSE has dropped to a new daily low and that confirms its move down from yesterday as impulsive and tells us the trend is to the downside. Expect a bounce back up into this afternoon (it could chew up a lot of time) but so far this is looking like it will set up a downside resolution next week.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 11:46:17 AM

Most Actives ... SPY $119.14 -1.36%, AIG $3.20 +5.62%, WM $0.16 -90.53%, WB $10.78 -21.31%, JPM $44.41 +2.18%, RIMM $73.15 -24.98%, QQQQ $40.55 -2.28%, C $18.33 -5.51%, MSFT $27.09 +1.80%, FRE $1.76 -5.91%

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 11:42:10 AM

HMO.X +1.55%, XAL.X +0.17%, SWH +0.14% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 11:41:33 AM

HUI.X -0.19% ... slips red.

Jane Fox : 9/26/2008 11:37:03 AM

Me thinks the debate tonight will be an event few will miss.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 11:36:12 AM

McCain to debate Obama in Oxford

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 11:35:17 AM

I would love nothing more as a taxpayer at this time to buy some real estate assets at $0.25 on the dollar. But then, I'd want to know just who is going to be minding the chicken coop.

Jane Fox : 9/26/2008 11:34:46 AM

John McCain will be attending the presidential debate tonight.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 11:33:34 AM

KB Home (KBH) $21.48 +1.55% ... Earnings Press Release Link

Keene Little : 9/26/2008 11:33:20 AM

It would be quite natural to think that the market is simply going to tread water today and hold up reasonably well in hopes some good news will come out this weekend. I have no doubt shorts will be very nervous about holding over the weekend. They've been fried numbers of times by weekend surprises.

The wave count for the decline from yesterday afternoon fits well as the makings of an impulsive move down (needs a 5th wave down yet). Then the market should bounce back up before heading lower again, shown on the SPX 5-min chart: Link

If it plays out this way we'll know the trend is down (by the direction of the 5-wave move) and that would say we probably won't get bullish news after the weekend. But I'll withhold an opinion on that until I see what the pattern looks like as we near the end of the day.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 11:22:03 AM

IWM, QQQQ, SPY and DIA Montage at this Link

IWM techncically strongest on all counts. QQQQ testing "old" downward trend and probably considered the most important technical event currently.

Keene Little : 9/26/2008 11:16:52 AM

SPX just broke its rising trend line off this morning's low and there's now a good chance we'll see new lows next.

Keene Little : 9/26/2008 11:16:17 AM

One additional comment on the anger (and frustration) we're feeling here. As part of what I study in Elliott Wave Theory, the mood swings of the public can be tracked via the stock market. The long term social cycles (including the 54-year Kondratief cycle) have been going on for eons. Greenspan's statement in his early years that he will become known as the man who stopped the Kondratief cycle is what turned me off about the guy a long time ago. Now he's out defending himself and his legacy as he comes under mounting criticism.

At any rate, these cycles repeat (duh) and much of my long term view is based on these cycles. Anger and frustration and social upheaval is simply part of the process and it will be reflected with a nasty bear market. But Don had a very good point (in the 10:54 AM post)--why get angry when we could see it coming? Anger is negative energy and only makes us feel worse. Try to deal with everything that's going on around us with calm and little emotion. Try not to get caught up in the emotional upheaval and herd mentality of it all. I will attempt to do my part in this regard.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 11:26:39 AM

"This is a problem created by Republicans. We want this to be a bipartisan...." - Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid

Jane Fox : 9/26/2008 11:04:51 AM

I had a discussion yesterday with a fellow who said this whole thing started with the banks giving loans they should not have given. My question was who was holding a gun to the head of the people who signed up for the loans. We need to blame Wall street for been greedy but we also need to blame main street just as much.

I have always been a proponent of free markets and the less regulation the better but have come to the realization that if human greed is left unregulated it will run amuck and get us to where we are now.

I am so mad I can see red that I am going to have to pay for this but I realize that paying for with a bailout is a lot less expensive than if we do not have the bailout and more and more banks and companies fail. I don?t want to go down that path

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 10:59:37 AM

Q2 GDP Revised Down on Softer Spending ... Reuters Story Link

Keene Little : 9/26/2008 10:54:03 AM

IMHO, you and others who want to vent a little anger or point a finger, need to point in the right direction. 1) Why all this surprise about people being greedy? It's in the DNA. There is nothing wrong with it; it's normal, so then, 2) what would happen if you put two football teams out there to play and there were no referees?, so 3) Keene says the SEC changed the rules so banks could over leverage. Are you surprised they did? So, 4) who is at fault? It's the regulators, stupid. If I take away the up-tick and let "banks" overleverage, all I have to do is sit back and wait. Why all the surprise and anger?
Don

You're absolutely right Don. But while I know we're greedy by nature (greed and fear are the two emotions controlling the market) I still get angry that we (collectively) allow it to get so far out of whack. When I do something stupid I get angry with myself so I guess anger at "we" can be considered a normal response to this.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2008 10:45:58 AM

Since you'll be able to benefit from Keene's comments today after all, since he has changed plans to be here today, I'm going to bow out as originally intended. As I've mentioned previously this week, I've been evaluating my ability to be available on the Market Monitor due to a schedule that's going to call me away quite frequently due to family health concerns.

Jane Fox : 9/26/2008 10:43:36 AM

No place for that here.

Jane Fox : 9/26/2008 10:43:12 AM

And I don?t mean just political opinions by the commentators but articles that have really nothing to do with the market but only with politics

Jane Fox : 9/26/2008 10:41:49 AM

I made post earlier that could have been construed as political but have since deleted it. I complain about political comments in this forum and then did it myself. We need to keep politics out of the monitor and I will do my best in the future.

Keene Little : 9/26/2008 10:37:56 AM

I just realized I was looking at the wrong level when I said earlier that I was watching the 50% retracement level of this morning's gap down for ES. I had said it's at 1206 but that's the 62% retracement. The 50% level is 1203.50 and the bounce reached a high of 1203. I think that high is important for the short term--back above 1203 should see gap closure otherwise short below it.

Jane Fox : 9/26/2008 10:34:07 AM

We still don't know if the debate is going to happen tonight or not meanwhile University of Mississippi officials are going ahead with their plans as if it were going to happen.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 10:33:52 AM

Dillards (DDS) $12.43 -0.56% Link ... #500 weighting in SPX at 0.01%

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 10:31:53 AM

Washington Mutual (WM) $0.16 -90.53% ... at yesterday's close, WM weighting in the SPX was 0.02% and #464 weighted component.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 10:29:12 AM

SPX Heavyweights at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 10:22:20 AM

UNG $34.08 -3.67% ...
USO $85.19 -1.73%
EEM $35.80 -3.40%,
IWM $69.18 -1.62%

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 10:21:15 AM

13-week up 19 bp at 0.90%

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 10:20:40 AM

Sector action weak ... % Gainers have HUI.X +2.77%, HMO.X +0.69%, SWH +0.17%, BTK.X +0.30%

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2008 10:18:40 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Notes: It would take a closing session measure of <=12.00% for the NYSE 5-day NH/NL ratio to reverse back lower. It would take a closing measure of <=20.00% for the NASDAQ 5-day NH/NL measure to reverse back lower.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2008 10:17:54 AM

So far, the potential resistance on 7-minute closes now at 556.62 is holding, but I'm not sure the OEX is through testing it, and we can't yet write off the possibility of a bounce up toward 557.50-558.50 to test the resistance there. OEX traders should remain aware, however, that until and unless the OEX can produce 15- and 30-minute closes above those levels, it has potential downside targets in the 549 (15-minute chart) and 544 (30-minute chart) regions. We expected the OEX to try to steady near 553-553.50 and it bounced from just below that, but that doesn't yet mean that all is great.

Jane Fox : 9/26/2008 10:12:25 AM

I wonder what the University of Michigan index would be today?

Jane Fox : 9/26/2008 10:10:53 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Consumer sentiment improved in September, according to a media report on the University of Michigan/Reuters index released Friday. The index rose to 70.3 in late September, compared with 63 in August. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting the September result to reach 71.5.

Keene Little : 9/26/2008 10:10:12 AM

It looks like a stronger effort to push the DOW back up this morning. As the most-watched index I can understand why some might like to see that one back in the green.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2008 10:05:43 AM

The A/D line is bouncing, but it doesn't seem to be bouncing to the same degree as the OEX. It's not really possible to compare, of course, because I'm comparing apples to oranges, but I can say that it hasn't yet tested nor breached potentially strong resistance near -1690. It's -2080 as I type.

Keene Little : 9/26/2008 10:05:12 AM

A 50% retracement of the gap down for ES is at 1206. That's the retracement level I like to watch to see if the gap is likely to get closed or not.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2008 10:04:28 AM

Careful here. My 7-minute charts, which I watch but don't often mention because so few people watch that time interval, tell me that there may be potentially strong resistance (on 7-minute closes) that began at 556.93 and extends in a strong band up to 558.48. Of course, the OEX is also popping up toward potentially strong resistance on the 15-minute and 30-minute charts, too, but when moves are quick in the morning, I dial down to shorter time intervals. OEX at 556.76 as I type.

Jane Fox : 9/26/2008 9:55:27 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- President Bush sent Wall Street a simple message on Friday morning: some form of a mortgage rescue plan is going to pass. "We are going to get a package passed," Bush said. Although the process looks messy, Bush said that Republicans and Democrats would be able to bridge their differences.

Jane Fox : 9/26/2008 9:53:32 AM

Wachovia shares fell 25% this morning following the failure of WaMu. Wachovia is the largest originator of mortgages called option ARMS, one of the riskiest mortgages whereas WaMu is the second largest. Wachovia investors have reason to be nervous.

Jane Fox : 9/26/2008 9:49:17 AM

Once again the TRIN is a bullish 0.56.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2008 9:47:55 AM

As I suspected might happen (9:24 and 9:36 posts), the OEX is attempting to steady near that 50% retracement level mentioned in those posts. For now, though, consider it potential resistance on 15- and 30-minute closes since the OEX dropped well beneath it. If the OEX should bounce back above it, though, wtch for potential resistance now near 557.65-557.97 on 15- and 30-minute closes. I would be surprised if the markets bounced that high again, but then again, why should we be surprised these days whatever the markets do?

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2008 9:44:58 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: The A/D line has broken through what had been potentially strong support on 15-minute closes, now at about -1600. This signals extreme danger for both bulls and bears, because breakdowns like this indicate that the momentum is strong, but also that the move is overdone and ripe for a reversal. Some of the strongest declines come when momentum is already strong to the downside and breakdown modes have been created, but so do some of the fastest whiplashes. Bears, keep updating your profit-protecting plans. Bulls, don't step in front of this. The A/D line is still declining and is at -2168 as I type. All it needs to do now is just move sideways and it maintains a very bearish outlook.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2008 9:41:39 AM

I heard this morning that another spread, the LIBOR versus OIS, was at record levels. I don't know how to find quotes on this, but when I was first researching the TED spread, I'd read arguments back and forth about which spread was most reliable. It seems that both are heading the same way.

For a visual about what the TED spread really means, one that might help you better understand it, here's a chart original printed in a Financial Times article published first on 9/24 and updated on 9/25. It will be included in my Weekend Wrap, as I'm substituting for Jim, who is attending an ASPO conference: Link

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2008 9:38:33 AM

TED spread last at 3.04 as per Bloomberg's delayed quote.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2008 9:36:54 AM

The OEX is testing and actually dropping a little below that 553-553.50 zone, but there's still the possibility that this potential support will catch. The OEX spend quite a bit of time in the middle of the week chopping around between about 546 and 554, so this congestion zone could slow the decline. Until and unless the OEX bounces back above 558 and maintains 15- and 30-minute closes above those levels, however, it has much lower potential downside targets, now at 549 and 544.

Tab Gilles : 9/26/2008 9:34:57 AM

$VIX 34.75 +1.94 Link

$VXD 33.02 +1.85 Link

$VXN 37.06 + 2.20 Link

$RVX 38.45 +2.07 Link

GLD $87.06 +$0.64; SLV $13.10 +$0.08; USO $84.63 -$2.06; UNG $34.09 -1.29

Jane Fox : 9/26/2008 9:33:13 AM

The bailout was not done in time and we had another bank failure overnight and that is causing a great deal of angst around the world. European Central Bank, Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank have stepped up their efforts to calm the nerves of countries with a new plan to pump billions of dollars of one-week loans for the first time ever.

Jane Fox : 9/26/2008 9:26:48 AM

Bush to address nation at 935ET.

Keene Little : 9/26/2008 9:26:11 AM

Linda, responding to your 9:11 AM post I'd have to respectfully disagree with your fault assessment. If you knew the market was going to have a bad day I'm thinking those negative energy thoughts coursed through the minds of market participants thereby creating fear and confusion. They therefore felt compelled to sell. By deduction I would have to conclude that it's your fault. (A big wink).

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2008 9:24:41 AM

Obviously, futures indicate a bad morning on the markets, and it's being blamed on the overnight developments. The charting setup yesterday was indicating that markets could be in trouble, however, as I kept posting all day yesterday. The OEX's climb surprised me by getting above the level that I had thought would likely be strong resistance. I had thought that the 561-ish area would probably prove to be strong resistance, and the VIX's decline below what I had thought to be analogous significant support also added to the confusion. Other indicators I trust, such as the A/D line, though, were showing the markets at perhaps unsustainable levels.

Futures have improved from earlier this morning, when the ES contract was about five points lower than it is as I type. Where might the OEX go if it drops in accordance with what we can extrapolate from SPX fair values and the ES contract? My charts tell me that there was significant potential support on 15- and 30-minute closes in the 558.00-558.30 region, but that's likely to be violated in the first few minutes of trading, barring some kind of surprise rate cut or something like that. If prices hold below that into the first 15- and 30-minute closes, the next place to watch for potential support is near 553.00-553.50, with that potential support zone encasing the 50% retracement of the climb from last Thursday's low into Friday's high. That's Fib evidence, but my Keltner charts tell me something different. They tell me that if the OEX can't quickly bounce back above the 558.00-558.30 region, it's vulnerable to 549 or perhaps 544-546. If that region is violated, we watch 542 and then stair-step lower. You know and I know that a gain that was made in less than 24 hours (Thursday to Friday) and has already been partially reversed can be completely reversed.

With that in mind, I wanted to give some possible targets on the daily chart if the OEX spends a lot of time below the 558 level today. That suggests 541.87 (currently, but will be lower if the OEX moves lower quickly) and, if that's violated, it shows 528, where support on daily closes might be found.

Jane Fox : 9/26/2008 9:21:16 AM

Here is a few more details about WaMu - SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- In the largest bank failure in U.S. history, Washington Mutual Inc., with about $310 billion in assets, succumbed Thursday to the fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis, was seized by federal regulators and rapidly acquired by J.P. Morgan Chase for $1.9 billion.

The federal Office of Thrift Supervision said it closed WaMu on Thursday and appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. as receiver. The FDIC in turn conducted the bidding process that led to the purchase by J.P. Morgan.

"With insufficient liquidity to meet its obligations, WaMu was in an unsafe and unsound condition to transact business," the Office of Thrift Supervision said in a press release posted on its Web site.

Keene Little : 9/26/2008 9:17:30 AM

Futures are getting a nice little jam job to the upside as we get closer to the open. I wouldn't trust it.

Tab Gilles : 9/26/2008 9:15:16 AM

Yen Advances, Heads for Weekly Increase on Bailout Clash, WaMu Link

Tab Gilles : 9/26/2008 9:11:57 AM

GDP growth revised lower to 2.8% in second quarter

Corporate profit growth at slowest pace in nearly three years, U.S. data show

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy was not as strong in the second quarter as previously believed, held back by weaker spending by consumers and businesses alike, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Gross domestic product grew at a 2.8% annualized pace in the quarter, revised down from the previous estimate of 3.3%, the government said in its third and final GDP estimate. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been looking for GDP -- broadly defined as the total value of all goods and services produced - to be revised up to 3.4% growth. The economy had expanded at a 0.9% rate in the first quarter. Link

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2008 9:11:20 AM

Everyone is trying to figure out who to blame. I've tried to stay out of that, but I can offer my tongue-in-cheek guess today. It's Keene's fault. When he said earlier in the week that he would be traveling today, and I remembered the market behavior last week when he was called away, I knew we'd have a bad day today.

Seriously, we should acknowledge that Keene along with others of us, but Keene most loudly, has been warning that the stuff going on was going to end very badly. It's always difficult to determine when an end is going to come, to time it. It was, too, for some big name people warning of the unsustainability of the system in the late 90's while the stock market just kept climbing. But I, for one, am glad I listened to Keene, Jim Brown and my own charting decisions. If the FDIC remains solvent, my money is safe, although I admit to being one of those worry-in-advance-about-things-that-never-occur people who is now worrying about the FDIC. I'm not rushing to my banks (because the money is spread out) to take out my money, however.

Jeff warns of managing risks and so does Dan Sheridan, my favorite CBOE webinar presenter. Jane lets us know how the market breadth indicators are setting up and keeps us up to date with breaking news, as well as giving insight into the markets. There's something to be gleaned from the writers and commentators we trust.

Tab Gilles : 9/26/2008 9:09:22 AM

Fortis shares slump as financial health debate rages Link

Tab Gilles : 9/26/2008 9:05:43 AM

Miguel Lausell, former Hillary Clinton campaign staffers charged Obama with being too inexperienced for the presidency, shifting their support to McCain. Link

Jane Fox : 9/26/2008 9:04:52 AM

DAteline NPR.com - In Washington, lawmakers negotiating the White House rescue plan for Wall Street Friday go back to the drawing board. Members of Congress Thursday thought they had a deal in place, but some House Republicans were unhappy with the package.

The money would be made available to the U.S. Treasury in stages. Treasury would have access to $250 billion immediately and an additional $100 billion later, "when the president certifies this emergency continues," New York Sen. Charles Schumer said. If needed, the final $350 billion would be available in May 2009, he said. Congress would be allowed to assess the program after the initial payment and block any additional funds if it deemed them unnecessary.

The agreement could require all companies participating in the program to agree to limits on executive pay ? such as restrictions on "golden parachutes." Schumer said the plan would also give the government a financial stake, in the form of warrants, in all participating companies.

Lawmakers said only a few, though potentially problematic, hurdles remain. Among them is a Democratic proposal to alter bankruptcy law in order to give judges the right to change the terms of mortgages. That proposal is hotly contested by the White House, the Treasury and many conservative Democrats and Republicans, who worry such a move would raise interest rates for everyone. The concern is that if judges give breaks on mortgage rates to people in bankruptcy and on the brink of foreclosure, then banks will need to raise rates on everybody else to make up for that loss.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2008 9:03:36 AM

When I wrote my first Trader's Corner article about the TED spread in the spring and began covering it regularly in the Market Monitor, I had difficulty finding resource material on the spread. Do an Internet search now and you'll find updates on the TED spread everywhere. It's on everyone's lips and on everyone's radar screen. Today, it's one of the key measures being watched to determine how much risk there is of the financial system collapsing. As I type, it's at 3.08, and as I noted this week on the MM and again in last weekend's Trader's Corner, this is above the 1987 level.

My hope, especially after yesterday's doji on the daily chart is that we're seeing it at a tipping over point, but since we're in new territory here, no one can say that for sure. I can't chart it on my Keltner charts, so I can't get any kind of upside targets, one of the reasons that I love using Keltner charts so much. What I can tell you, however, is that for the last year, the correlating behavior of the TED spread and the SPX at extremes in the TED spread has been mixed. Sometimes as the TED spread was hitting a swing high, the SPX was already beginning to stabilize and recover. Sometimes, it was just beginning a sharp decline.

Jane Fox : 9/26/2008 9:00:35 AM

Here are your overnight charts and as you can see both the NDX and Russell 2000 futures have broken their previous day lows. S&P (ES) and DOW (YM) futures will probably follow unless we get some good news out of Washington. Link

Keene Little : 9/26/2008 8:59:03 AM

In the fight for capitalism vs. socialism the current bailout battle is no small fight. I applaud the Republican effort (and would applaud it if it came from the Democrats) who are insisting Wall Street pay for insurance to get out of the mess they created, not the taxpayers. When we will start to hold those responsible for the mess to clean it up themselves?

Jane Fox : 9/26/2008 8:58:07 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy was not as strong in the second quarter as previously believed, held back by weaker consumer and business spending, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

The economy grew at a 2.8% annualized pace in the quarter, revised down from the previous estimate of 3.3%, the government said in its third and final estimate of quarterly gross domestic product.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting GDP to be revised up to 3.4%.

The economy grew at a 0.9% rate in the first quarter.

Keene Little : 9/26/2008 8:56:54 AM

The techs are getting hit hard with NQ futures now well below Wednesday's low of 1650.50. The September 18th low at 1612.50 is now not far away (NQ currently printing 1632.50, down 47.50 (-2.8%). The techs have been a good proxy for the broader market.

Tab Gilles : 9/26/2008 8:48:47 AM

Dems Blast McCain After Bailout Negotiations Go Sour Link

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