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Keene Little : 10/2/2008 1:18:34 AM

QCharts version 5.1 has stopped reporting futures data effective October 1st except for CME emini but I noticed even those are not updating tonight. I've been avoiding going to version 6.0 because it won't accept my saved workspaces and all my charts. Once things quiet down for me it looks like I'll be starting my search for a QCharts replacement. Tonight's pivot table uses the RUT instead of the emini (QCharts did not report futures data today) and tomorrow I'll start reporting pivots for the cash market instead of futures. Sorry for the inconvenience but I don't have the time each evening to go to other sources for the futures H, L and C. Link

The Senate passed the pork-laden bailout bill, making a bad bill an even worse bill. So much for Senate integrity (they did have it once didn't they?). But interestingly the futures sold off after the Senate passed the bill. Perhaps a bit of a sell-the-news event. We'll have to see what happens when the cash market opens. At the end of the day I showed the setup on the NDX 10-min chart that called for a selloff first thing Thursday morning with a kiss goodbye at its broken uptrend line from Monday. The 120-min chart shows the downtrend line from September 25th held down today's bounces: Link

If we see another decline to a new low there is a downside target near NDX 1470 by a Fib projection and a trend line. That could set up a bigger bounce into next week. For now the key upside level for the bulls to break remains at 1646 but shorter-term bears can use Tuesday's high for their stop.

The SPX 120-min chart looks very similar and a new decline could find support around 1090 before bouncing back up next week. Its key upside level remains 1188: Link . On the daily chart I'm showing the dark red wave count in perspective with the move down from May. Cyclical studies call for a low in November/December and it could be quite a bit lower as the wave count remains very bearish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 11:33:25 PM

Asian Markets: Link ... Nikkie-225 off 1.10% at 11,242.

Hang Seng off a fraction at the opening bell at 17,976

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 11:29:12 PM

Biiiig decision for EBC tomorrow morning ...

Wednesday's Global Econ. Calendar Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 11:27:55 PM

Per Wednesday's Wrap ...

Japan's Monetary Base y/y +0.09%

Australia's trade balance was surplus of 1.36 billion.

New Zealand's commodity price index fell 4.9% m/m

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 11:09:57 PM

SEC extends short-sell ban for financials ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 11:09:16 PM

Bailout passes Senate, House foes soften ... AP Story Link

OI Technical Staff : 10/1/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 9:26:52 PM

Results of Vote; 74 Yes/ 25 No

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 9:24:36 PM

"EMERGENCY ECONOMIC STABILIZATION ACT OF 2008" GETS THE 60 VOTES NECESSARY TO SEND THE BILL BACK TO HOUSE OF REPS.

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 8:30:06 PM

(Bloomberg) -- Billionaire Warren Buffett, the world's preeminent stock picker, said the US economy is "flat on the floor" after a cardiac arrest as companies struggle to secure funding and unemployment increases. Link

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 7:55:08 PM

SEC extending Short-Selling Ban through October 17th

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 7:51:54 PM

Senator McCain to address senate in a few minutes.

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 7:48:21 PM

SUMMARY OF THE "EMERGENCY ECONOMIC STABILIZATION ACT OF 2008" Link

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 7:41:27 PM

Active Legislation

110th Congress (2007-2008) Updated October 1, 2008

Link

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 7:33:29 PM

For those interested in Live coverage of the Senate floor Vote on the Rescue Plan tonight, go to this link for C-SPAN 2 coverage. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 7:25:53 PM

Rescue Bill Vote Alert! ... due out at 07:45 PM EDT

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 6:26:46 PM

DETROIT (Reuters) = Chrysler LLC said on Wednesday its U.S. sales fell 33 percent in September to 107,349 vehicles because of a highly volatile economic environment and reduced fleet and lease volume.

"The economy is going through a difficult restructuring, resulting in great uncertainty among consumers," Jim Press, Chrysler Vice Chairman and President, said in a statement.

Chrysler's car sales declined 29 percent, while its truck sales declined 34 percent.

Chrysler also announced a new consumer incentive program, featuring cash rebates and low-cost loans, on 2008 model-year vehicles.

Chrysler's numbers were not adjusted for the extra selling day in September 2007.

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 6:22:55 PM

Google Unveils Ambitious, $4.4 Trillion Energy Plan Link

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 6:17:05 PM

Honda Sales Plunge 24% in September Link

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 6:14:36 PM

Eli Lilly & Co. is likely the "mystery" bidder that has been engaged in takeover talks with ImClone Systems and could be ready to offer $6.1 billion for the cancer drug developer, The Wall Street Journal reported late Wednesday. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 5:25:04 PM

He's getting "warmer" isn't he?

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 4:56:56 PM

Taiwan bans short-selling ... Reuters story (yesterday) Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 4:27:19 PM

EEM $34.58 +1.19%

EWY $39.05 -1.71%

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 4:26:51 PM

Weekly EIA Report: Link

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 4:17:44 PM

JP Morgan (JPM) $49.89 +$3.19 (6.83%)

JPM Jan 2010 45.00 call(WJPAI) Bid: 11.30 Ask: 11.65

Raise STOP on WJPAI from $8.00 as mentioned on 11:56:43 AM post to $9.00

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 4:11:55 PM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 4:09:50 PM

Government launches mortgage aid program ... AP Story Link .... Lenders, rather than borrowers, will decide whether to participate.

Keene Little : 10/1/2008 4:07:27 PM

SPX finished by holding above its uptrend line from Monday while NDX bounced back up to it, looking like it's ready for a kiss goodbye with a selloff tomorrow morning. So SPX is potentially bullish and NDX is potentially bearish. It's a bit of a roll the dice for what tomorrow morning will bring. If betting just be sure you know where your stop is and then honor it if tagged. Mine remains just above yesterday's close for NDX.

Keene Little : 10/1/2008 3:52:43 PM

If the market drops tomorrow NDX has a downside projection to 1470 where the 5th wave will equal the 1st wave in the move down from September 19th. After the completion of that 5-wave move it will be a setup for a bigger bounce, as shown in dark red on the 120-min chart. A bounce back up to the 1600 area would be quite possible next week. Link

I've got some thoughts about why price might play out this way--it tells me a bailout plan will be passed by Congress and the market will be jubilant. The jubilance will then turn to worry and another 3rd wave decline will hit after next week. That's only a theory of course and it could be completely the opposite scnenario if we see another leg up in the bounce tomorrow--that could set up disappointment and a selloff following a failure to pass a bill again.

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 3:51:28 PM

dj- Normal Gulf refining, production output now seen in 4-5 weeks

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 3:50:26 PM

dj- Chrysler: Inventory -15% Vs. Sep'07

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 3:49:45 PM

dj- DOE: Hurricane electrical damage more extensive than thought

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 3:49:05 PM

dj- DOE: Refinery restart progress slower than hoped for

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 3:48:02 PM

NCC $3.05 +74.28%
WB $3.45 -1.14%
AIG $3.85 +15.61%

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 3:47:58 PM

NCC $3.05 +74.28%
WB $3.45 -1.14%
AIG $3.85 +15.61%

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 3:45:46 PM

dj- DOE: Will act quickly to respond to additional requests

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 3:44:55 PM

dj- DOE: Delivered 900,000 Bbl SPR crude oil Wednesday for 2 Refiners

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 3:42:13 PM

DOE must have delivered additional this week. EIA has reported 2,799,000

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 3:39:08 PM

DOE: Have delivered 4.8 Mln Bbl SPR post hurricanes.

Keene Little : 10/1/2008 3:38:25 PM

I mentioned to you once I am a reading junkie, and, ... after everything I read and listened to regarding the bial out, I am 100% convinced of Jim Rogers and Mark Faber arguments that there should be no bail out what so ever. Yes, short term the pain will be significant...but we?ll start on the right footing and with the right attitude.

We are doing exactly what we spent 10 years criticizing Japan for doing: keeping limping banks' balance sheets artificially bloated and sick. Welcome to 10 years of zero economic growth (plus inflation since we are not a country of savers).

Thanks Jamil. What was good advice for Japan is apparently the wrong thing for us. We are the epitome of arrogance these days and it's no wonder the world has lost respect for US. Let's take our medicine, get this thing over with and get back to a growth curve sooner rather than later.

Keene Little : 10/1/2008 3:33:49 PM

After a quick break of its uptrend line from Monday and then recovery NDX has now broken it, currently near 1565. While it remains possible price is merely consolidating before heading higher I think the higher probability is that it's a bearish consolidation we're seeing. The Senate votes tonight (have you made your phone calls and sent emails yet?) and it's of course risky holding any trade overnight. Use options and my recommendation continues to be to hold long puts rather than long calls.

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 3:33:18 PM

KMX $13.21 -5.64% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 3:32:57 PM

dj- CarMax to cut 600 jobs in response to credit crunch

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 3:31:14 PM

Toyota: Hybrid Prius supply was 4.3 Days Supply at end of September

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 3:28:37 PM

Toyota releasing September sales

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 3:27:46 PM

MMS: 58.8% Oil, 47.7% Gas Output Still Off Line In US Gulf

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 3:26:54 PM

MMS: 764,295 B/D Oil; 3,532 MMCF/D Gas Off Line In US Gulf

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 3:26:53 PM

MMS: 764,295 B/D Oil; 3,532 MMCF/D Gas Off Line In US Gulf

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 3:24:15 PM

MMS Alert!: Statistics released Monday/Tuesday incorrect.

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 3:14:40 PM

dj- Motor Show: Toyota reaffirms 2010 Target for 1M Hybrid Sales

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 3:01:25 PM

8 Democrats back bailout alternative Link

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 2:59:56 PM

NYSE expects SEC short-sale order to last 30 days Link

Keene Little : 10/1/2008 2:59:09 PM

Two equal legs up from this morning's low for NDX would be at 1588.49, just about on top of the 78.6% retracement of this morning's decline. That's a good place for a stop (just above) although for puts bought yesterday afternoon on this index (QQQQ), I have my stop just above yesterday's high. I will have given back some profits I could have captured this morning but I'm trying to avoid the whipsaws and just let price tell me when to get out of the way. So far that strategy has worked very well over the past couple of weeks and I've avoided getting stopped out on the huge rallies only to find it reverse on a dime the next day and tank. The risk of course is giving back some really nice gains when I do get stopped out. There's no right way, only what works for your trading style.

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 2:54:39 PM

NYSE head favors 'uptick rule' on short sales

NEW YORK, Oct 1 (Reuters) - The head of the New York Stock Exchange said on Wednesday he is confident U.S. regulators will will extend the ban on short selling some financial stocks and suggested reinstating the "uptick rule" that was eliminated last year.

"It's the solution that we think is easiest to do and easiest to understand," NYSE Euronext Chief Executive Duncan Niederauer, on a conference call, said of the uptick rule, which for decades was used to regulate short selling.

NYSE is in "pretty regular communication" with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which is considering reinstating the uptick rule, Niederauer said. "It is back on the table," he said.

The SEC joined regulators in others countries earlier this month in banning short selling in hundreds of financial stocks in an effort to protect companies said to be targeted amid the credit-market turmoil.

The temporary measure is set to expire on Thursday. Niederauer said he is "fairly confident it will be extended for a short period of time."

Short selling is a trading strategy in which stock is borrowed and sold in the hope its value will drop. It is then repurchased at a lower price and returned to the lender.

The SEC adopted the uptick rule -- also called the "plus tick rule" -- in the 1930s to help stave off a depression-era market breakdown. The rule forces short sellers to sell at a price higher than the previous trade.

Jane Fox : 10/1/2008 2:51:20 PM

Tab's 02:39 post is talking about the Mark-to-Market regulation. WE got into this mess because - plain Jane simple - we had too little regulation. If we had regulations on who could have mortgages or if we had regulations on how much a bank could leverage we would not be here today. So when I see good regulation getting thrown out then I do start to really really wonder about who is watching out for us.

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 2:51:08 PM

dj- Buffett: Rescue plan is for US economy, not Wall Street

Keene Little : 10/1/2008 2:50:52 PM

That news story just posted by Tab is exactly what I feared would happen and posted earlier this morning. This is not good and the idea that the government will make money on these toxic waste assets, in order to sell the public on the idea, is a bold-faced lie. The taxpayer will be left holding the bag, the government will be broke and government services will be severely curtailed which will of course hurt those most in need. Meanwhile the fat cats on Wall Street will have walked away unscathed. I can only ask what is wrong with this picture and shame on our Congress for even thinking of doing this. I know how I'll cast my vote if my representatives vote yes. It will be the mark of utter and complete economic illiteracy and poor judgment. Those running for president and wanting this package also will not get my vote. I'm really steamed about this (can you tell?).

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 2:47:52 PM

USO $79.39 -$2.62 (3.19%; UNG $34.36 +$1.04 (3.12%)

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 2:45:40 PM

AIG $3.89 +0.56 (16.8%)

N.Y. would consider Greenberg bids for AIG units Link

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 2:39:56 PM

A New Rule Change That Could HurtTaxpayers

By Elizabeth MacDonald(FOXBusiness)

A little understood but very important accounting rule being blamed for the $523 bn in losses and writedowns at financial companies around the globe is now being retooled by market and accounting regulators, in a last-ditch attempt to stop the steam pipes bursting and to get banks lending again.

However, the move matters greatly to taxpayers, because analysts now say that banks who own severely damaged mortgage-backed bonds may be able to use the changed rule to get higher prices for these securities if they auction them off to the government as now planned in the $700 bn rescue bill.

The rule change comes just at the end of the third quarter, which means companies may be spared the pain of big third-quarter losses and writedowns.

And it comes as the Federal Bureau of Investigation is probing Wall Street firms to search for criminal securities fraud in the valuation of these bonds.

link for complete story... Link

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 2:36:52 PM

France to Propose EU300 Billion Europe Bank Fund

Link

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 2:34:18 PM

Sales plunge for GM and Ford

Auto makers say credit squeeze, customer worries led to sharp drops in sales. Link

GM $9.39 - $0.06 Ford $4.54 -$0.66

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 2:32:09 PM

Senate Rescue Bill Lifts FDIC Coverage to $250,000 Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 2:31:05 PM

NCC $2.89 +65.17% ... NCC-VQ $0.95 x $1.05 ... VIX.X 40.03 (from 11:51:55)

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 2:28:58 PM

Crude Oil $98.65, NatGas $7.72, Gold $880.50, Euro 1.4074, Yen 105.93, 1-mos T-bill 0.71, 3-mos T Bill 0.85, 1-mos Libor 4.003, 3-mos Libor 4.15, TED spread 3.30

Keene Little : 10/1/2008 2:25:42 PM

The consolidation since today's mid-day high can be considered bullish and a rally above it could see another leg up equal to the rally off this morning's low. But so far I'm not seeing enough evidence to suggest another rally leg is coming so I'm sitting tight on my short position and will bail if and when today's mid-day high is exceeded. I'll just let price lead the way here.

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 2:23:33 PM

$VIX 40.14 +0.75

$VXD 37.57 +0.96

$VXN 43.07 +0.49

$RVX 42.60 +0.88

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 2:21:39 PM

NCC $2.93 +67.42% ... nearing GREEN #6

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 2:15:35 PM

"There's no way a smart person can grow broke, unless through borrowed money" - Warrent Buffet 10/01/2008

Jane Fox : 10/1/2008 2:04:28 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- General Electric Co. ( said Wednesday it will sell $12 billion in common stock in a secondary offering and sell $3 billion in preferred shares to Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc.. Buffett also gets warrants for $3 billion in common shares at $22.25 a share. "This action does two things for GE investors," said Jeff Immelt, GE chief executive, in a statement. "First, it enhances our flexibility and allows us to execute on our liquidity plan even faster. Second, it gives us the opportunity to play offense in this market should conditions allow. In addition, we remain committed to the Triple A rating and in the recent market volatility, we continue to successfully meet our commercial paper needs." The offering is expected to be priced before U.S. markets open on Thursday.

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 2:02:25 PM

dj- Buffett: Confident GE will continue to be successful

Jane Fox : 10/1/2008 2:01:17 PM

Hikers find items belonging to missing aviator Steve Fossett in California, Mammoth Lakes police chief says.

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 2:01:07 PM

GM had 275K cars; 442K truck in inventory @ Sept. end

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 1:57:20 PM

GE $25.39 ... released for trade

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 1:57:10 PM

GE $25.39 ... released for trade

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 1:55:54 PM

GE $25.39 ... released for trade

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 1:54:52 PM

dj- GE still sees Q3 financial services earnings about $2B

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 1:54:46 PM

dj- GE still sees Q3 financial services earnings about $2B

Keene Little : 10/1/2008 1:53:49 PM

Stepping away for about 15 minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 1:53:28 PM

Good gravy! GE, GE$A, GEC, GED, GER, GEG, GEP, GEA, GEJ all halted for trade.

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 1:52:51 PM

CNBC reporting consumers with FICO 650 unable to get auto loan.

Keene Little : 10/1/2008 1:51:43 PM

This poor market--shorts cover first and ask questions later. It's now dropping right back down. Pretty wild to try daytrading this.

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 1:51:04 PM

GM releasing sales figures

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 1:49:14 PM

General Electric ... halted for trade.

Keene Little : 10/1/2008 1:48:51 PM

Big bounce back up. Not sure what news just hit.

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 1:48:16 PM

dj- General Electric to offer at least $12B of common stock to public

Keene Little : 10/1/2008 1:41:57 PM

NDX is now testing its new uptrend line from Monday's low through this morning's low, currently near 1557. If that breaks and it then makes a new daily low, it will be a confirmed breakdown. Short plays on this index should now have their stop lowered to just above today's mid-day high (for all indices actually, even the DOW).

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 1:40:19 PM

dj- Minneapolis Star-Tribune Skips $9 Mln Debt Payment

The Minneapolis Star-Tribune has stopped making payments to its senior creditors, the chairman of the company said, the paper reported on its Web site Wednesday. Chairman Christopher Harte said the decision to skip a $9 million quarterly payment on its $432 million debt will allow the paper to save cash while attempting a restructuring. Harte said all options are being considered, including a bankruptcy filing, as the newspaper negotiates with its lenders. However, he added that "nothing is imminent." Harte added that the newspaper is still profitable and he doesn't expect the missed payment to affect dealings with vendors or advertisers. The Star Tribune's owner, Avista Capital Partners, a New York private equity firm, paid $530 million for the Star Tribune in 2007. The newspaper missed a payment to junior lenders in June. Senior lenders include Credit Suisse Group (CS)..

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 1:38:20 PM

EEM $33.79 -1.11%

EWY $38.93 -2.01%

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 1:36:50 PM

dj- French Finance Ministry Denies Reports of Eur300B bailout plan

Keene Little : 10/1/2008 1:27:41 PM

It's a slow-motion move so far but the steepening downtrend lines shown on the NDX 120-min chart show the "waterfall" decline starting to pick up speed: Link . If yesterday's high for NDX (1597.73) is exceeded I think we'll probably see a move up to the 1646 area, the key level for the upside. Otherwise I like the short side on NDX. The DOW may be too manipulated at this point to get a fair EW count on that index.

The slow-motion decline is very likely a result of government efforts to prop the markets up. The government's effort has resulted in unheard of interference in what's supposed to be a free market (they don't even bother hiding this fact anymore, which shows how blatant and arrogant they've become) but in the end even the government is swimming against the current on this. The difference between the government and salmon is that the government won't be able to spawn before it dies (at least I hope it doesn't spawn).

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 1:22:58 PM

Ford US Sales Press Release Link (earlier this morning)

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 1:19:33 PM

MMS: Destroyed platforms produced 13,300 b/d oil, 90 mmcf/d gas

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 1:18:50 PM

MMS: 52 of 3,800 oil, gas production platforms destroyed in US gulf.

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 1:17:20 PM

NCC $2.57 +46.85% ... that news was also mentioned late last night.

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 1:15:48 PM

dj- SEC to extend short-sale ban, excluding preferred shares

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 1:12:23 PM

EIA: Gasoline shortages in some US areas may last for weeks
Retail gasoline prices seen down to $3.50/gallon or less by year-end.

Keene Little : 10/1/2008 1:07:54 PM

Before I would get excited about upside potential I would want to see the techs on board. Whenever we've seen the DOW in the green with the techs lagging behind and still in the red, the techs have led us back to the downside. In fact I'd say the techs provide a better shorting opportunity and the DOW a better long play. You can play it both ways when you want to hedge a directional play.

NDX has just retraced a little over 62% of this morning's decline (1578.73) and the wave pattern for its bounce counts well as a completion of a 3-wave correction to this morning's decline (meaning it will now head back down to new daily lows).

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 1:04:03 PM

dj- France Rescue Package (update)

France is proposing creating a EUR300-billion European rescue package to prevent the collapse of any bank, a European source said Wednesday.

The French Finance Ministry told Dow Jones Newswires it had no comment on the report.

Germany however is opposed to any such package, which is due to be proposed at a meeting of the leaders of France, Germany, the U.K. and Italy on Paris on Saturday, a spokesman for the German Finance Ministry said.

Keene Little : 10/1/2008 1:02:37 PM

Continue to keep in mind that surprises are to the downside. Whether it's a bill that doesn't pass the House, or a sell-the-news event, or another banking bombshell, we've seen too many big gaps to the downside that trap bulls. The Fed is reported to be pumping massive amounts of money into the system and we know this tends to come in through the financial markets. It's certainly good for short term rallies but the problem has been lack of follow-through.

Keene Little : 10/1/2008 12:58:19 PM

The DOW is the first to make it above yesterday's high. That negates the immediately bearish wave pattern calling for a sharp drop below Monday's low. Take that as your signal to get flat or go with a small long position. Certainly cut back or hedge your short plays even if in for a longer-term position trade. We need to see how this leg up progresses now.

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 12:50:30 PM

ECB unlikely to cut despite turmoil Link

Keene Little : 10/1/2008 12:49:55 PM

If the market is able to rally further today the upside targets for SPX are first to 1176 as mentioned earlier, and then near 1188 which is the key level to the upside and the location of the downtrend line from September 19th. Above that level and we could have a real bonafide rally on our hands (1324 upside target). First thing the bulls need to do though, obviously, is break above yesterday's high. 120-min chart update: Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 12:47:04 PM

NCC $2.67 +52.57% ...

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 12:46:58 PM

Energy tax credits gain momentum from bailout

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Legislation extending tax credits for the solar, wind and biodiesel industries gained new life on Wednesday as U.S. Senate leaders said they plan to attach the tax bill to a $700 billion economic rescue package.

The Senate is expected to vote Wednesday night on this modified version of the bailout package which failed to pass the House of Representatives earlier this week. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus said with the addition of the tax incentives, the bill will help average Americans, as well as Wall Street.

First Solar (FSLR $199.45 +10.54; SunTech (STP) $37.40 +$1.50; Energy Conversion (ENER) $61.84 +$3.68

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 12:46:49 PM

dj- U.S. Bank Invests $3M In Cincinnati, OH Market

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 12:46:02 PM

dj- France Proposes EUR300B Rescue Package For European Blocks

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 12:45:00 PM

Green #4

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 12:44:44 PM

Sell 1/2 of partial long from morning open in NCC here at $2.61

Jane Fox : 10/1/2008 12:44:15 PM

The DOW futures is challenging its overnight highs but the NDX futures only its overnight lows. Link

Keene Little : 10/1/2008 12:44:04 PM

The play here is to short this bounce, especially since your stop can be kept relatively close at a new high above yesterday's.

Jane Fox : 10/1/2008 12:42:02 PM

Internals have turned decidedly bullish but take note of the absolute values of the AD line and AD ratio, both are under water (AD ratio under 1.00 and volume under 0) Link

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 12:39:42 PM

XLF $20.50 +$0.61 (3.1%) BAC $37.90 +$2.90 (8.3%)

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 12:38:16 PM

Market has rallied off its lows of the day.

JPM $49/ WJPAI $11.10/$11.60

Keene Little : 10/1/2008 12:37:17 PM

ES would close yesterday's gap at 1167.50 and just hit 1167.

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 12:36:17 PM

Watch $80 on the Dollar and $90 on crude oil. With the Volatility Index ($VIX) climbing from 20 to 50 in the last several weeks, the Dollar seems to be the place to hide. Gold since its March high of $1,000 has put in lower highs and lower lows. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 12:26:43 PM

dj- Brazil Sept 1-26 Forex Inflows $2.75B vs. $3M Outflows Yr Ago

Keene Little : 10/1/2008 12:25:15 PM

We've got a new uptrend line to watch now--from Monday's low through this morning's low. In fact it looks like we might have a parallel up-channel that supports a higher price today (into the green). Sticking with the SPX 10-min chart, the top of the channel crosses the 62% retracement of Monday's decline (1176) near 1:30 PM today. So while I like the short side today, that's the upside risk at the moment. 10-min chart: Link

So far SPX has retraced a little more than 50% of this morning's decline (1154.40). A 62% retracement is at 1157.62. Above 1162 (78.6%) would have me thinking we'll probably head back into the green for the day.

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 12:24:12 PM

I would think the MCD might also have other sources, however, echo's thoughts of how tight credit markets are.

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 12:23:35 PM

dj- Sonic Corp: Other Financing Sources Beyond GE Capital ... see news from a couple of days ago.

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 12:21:55 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 12:04:50 PM

For auto sales being released ...

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 12:04:33 PM

Crude OIl $97.80; Natural Gas $7.71; Gold $891.70; Euro 1.4055; Yen 106.05; T-Bill 1mos 0.75% 3mos 0.81%; Libor 1mos 4.003 3mos 4.15; TED Spread 3.47

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 11:56:43 AM

JP Morgan (JPM) $48.10 +$1.39 (2.97%)

WJAPI - Jan. 2010 $45 Call $10.40/ $10.90 Link

Suggested 1/2 position 9/25/08 @ $7.85, Stop $6. With the call up $2.55 (32%), raise the stop to $8.00.

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 11:51:55 AM

NCC $2.31 +32.00% ... NCC-VQ $1.30 x $1.45 ... VIX.X 41.72 +5.91% ... pricing out for NAKED put.

Keene Little : 10/1/2008 11:50:43 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- General Electric Co. shares fell 9% in midmorning trading Wednesday as Deutsche Bank lowered its expectations on the industrial conglomerate. "Our adjustments largely reflect deterioration at GE Capital-driven by tighter credit markets, asset shrinkage and debt pay-down," wrote analyst Nigel Coe. In recent action, GE shares traded at $23.23, down $2.28. The stock, a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, is down 37% so far this year. By comparision, the Dow is down 20%.

We will hear more and more of this kind of news and no amount of taxpayer money bailing out the big banks is going to help this. Banks will continue to be fearful of lending (look at the huge spike in LIBOR and TED) and borrowers will be fearful of borrowing. That's called a credit contraction and it must run its course after the huge credit expansion of the past decade.

Keene Little : 10/1/2008 11:42:02 AM

This morning's decline can be counted as a completed 5-wave move (more so on NDX than SPX) which means we could get a bounce to correct the leg down. It should be a good shorting opportunity (stop needs to be above yesterday's high). The more immediately bearish interpretation of this morning's decline is that we're about to see an acceleration lower.

It remains a market to be on the short side and to look for shorting rather than buying opportunities. The hard part of course is holding short through these wild and strong rally attempts. I've been preoccupied or on the road for the past two weeks and have not been able to "trade" the market and instead I've taken a short position and then I've added to it during the big bounces. To see my account fluctuate widely on a daily basis is an understatement. The risk for "sell-and-holders" is watching profits go poof in a heartbeat.

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 11:31:03 AM

CNBC guest ... Talking about how America "doesn't understand" the stock market isn't just for fat cats.

So true ... a reflection of the economy.

Some chatter today that constinuents starting to "flip flop" on rescue plan, as they begin to understand.

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 11:21:40 AM

National City (NCC) $2.27 +29.71% ... #2 most active.

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 11:20:29 AM

dj- Energy Sec. Bodman: Sees Energy Demand Hit If Financial Crisis Not Solved

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 11:19:38 AM

dj- Italy PM: Bank, Mtge Systems Sound; Worried About Speculation

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 11:15:00 AM

EEM $33.17 -2.92%

EWY $38.55 -2.97%

Jane Fox : 10/1/2008 11:03:30 AM

Crude supply up 4.3 mln brls last week:

Distillate supply down 2.3 mln brls:

Gasoline supply up 900,000 brls: Energy Dept.

Keene Little : 10/1/2008 11:02:51 AM

Adding to Jane's comment on continuing write-downs, add auto loans and commercial loans. The bailout bill will not do anything for people's ability to pay their extended debt levels. It just adds to my firm belief the bailout bill will only bail out big money and do nothing for the continuing credit contraction. Using taxpayer money to pay the people who risked it all and lost it is criminal in my mind. If I blow up my trading account, which is what these banks have done, I shouldn't expect others to bail me out. The whole idea of us bailing them out is mind-blowingly absurd and all I hear on the news channels is how we must do this. NO!!

Jane Fox : 10/1/2008 10:51:34 AM

Don't think that our current spate of crisis is only due to mortgages. Banks will write off more than $18 billion in delinquent credit-card debt in the first quarter of 2009 and $96 billion in all of 2009.

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 10:48:37 AM

Bank Update...

JPM $47.84 +$1.15 (2.43%)

WFC $38 36 +$0.80 (2.1%)

BAC $36.40 +$1.40 (3.95%)

USB $36.35 +$0.34 (0.83%)

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 10:45:54 AM

$VIX 38.95 +2.34

$VXD 41.87 +2.48

$VXN 43.83 +1.25

$RVX 43.17 +1.45

Linda Piazza : 10/1/2008 10:45:35 AM

Now that Keene is back, I'm signing off again. For OEX traders, a failure to reclaim 30-minute closes back above the 30-minute 9-ema, now at 538.56, suggests that the OEX remains vulnerable to 533.97 and perhaps even 529.39. I wouldn't be surprised to see a test of 538.55 or even about 539.50, the current location of the rising trendline off yesterday's lows after the first 15-minute period, but at this point, I would watch for a rollover at that level.

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 10:43:49 AM

USO $78.05 -$3.96 (4.82%)

OIH $136.60 -$10 (6.755)

Keene Little : 10/1/2008 10:43:10 AM

After yesterday's throw-over finish of the rising wedge, shown on the 10-min chart, you can see the confirmed breakdown from it. Price should retrace it quickly and head for new lows if it's the correct pattern. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/1/2008 10:43:03 AM

I'm still stuck with what I was stuck with late last week, agreeing with a Bloomberg guest speaker. The continued high value of the TED spread (3.44) is saying one of three things about this Senate bill: either there's doubt about whether it will result in a bill that's delivered to President Bush, it's unworkable even if it is delivered, or there's some other shoe about to fall in the form of a big financial that we don't yet know about.

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 10:41:13 AM

Refinery Capacity: 72.3% versus last weeks 66.7%

Sixteen refineries, 25% of the U.S. capacity was offline due to Hurricane Ike.

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 10:59:51 AM

EIA Stockpiles

Crude Oil +4.3M @ 294.5M Bbl
Total Gasoline +0.9M @ 179.6M Bbl
Conventional Gasoline +610K @ 84.82M Blb
Total Distillate -2.3M @ 123.1M Bbl
ULS Diesel -2.22M @ 68.27M Bbl
Jet Fuel -1.04M @ 36.05M Bbl
Heating Oil +1.33M @ 37.31M Bbl
SPR -1.38M @ 704.41M Bbl

Refineries

Gross Inputs +979,000 Bbl/Day to 12.73M B/d
Crude Oil Inputs +948,000 Bbl/Day to 12.45M B/d
Pct. Utilization up from 66.71% to 72.27%
Operable Capacity unchanged @ 17.61M B/d
# Days Crude Oil Supply (excluding SPR) up from 21.7 to 23.2 days supply.

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 10:39:28 AM

EIA Weekly Inventory:

Crude oil +4.3 M

Gasoline +0.9M

Distillate -2.3M

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 10:33:19 AM

EIA inventories due at 10:35 AM EDT ...

Jane Fox : 10/1/2008 10:32:21 AM

The Economic Stabilization bill is expected to pass the Senate tonight and pass overwhelming. Many are hoping when it does it will build momentum for the bill to pass the House. I would not be in a short position overnight tonight.

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 10:32:11 AM

USO $79.40 -3.18% ...

UGA $48.43 -2.63% ...

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 10:31:34 AM

JP Morgan (JPM) $47.80 +$1.10 (2.335)

WJPAI - Jan. 2010 $45 Call LEAP $10.10 Bid / $10.85 Ask

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 10:30:23 AM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $38.52 -1.00%, NCC $2.05 +17.71%, SPY $114.63 -1.16%, MSFT $26.59 -0.37%, WB $3.26 -6.85%, FNM $1.61 +5.22%, FRE $1.82 +6.43%, IWM $66.92 -1.63%, GE $23.46 -7.92%, CSCO $22.00 -2.48%

Linda Piazza : 10/1/2008 10:29:21 AM

Neither the SPX nor the OEX dropped quite to the next potential support zone that I had mentioned in my 10:11 post, but instead stopped about a point or two above those levels. They're rebounding up toward a retest of the rising trendlines they broke through this morning. Those trendlines had formed under the lows after the first 15-minute period yesterday. They're now located at about 1153-1155 for the SPX and about 539.55 for the OEX. Those are the places to watch for potential resistance on 15-minute and 30-minute closes if the indices keep bouncing. If the indices can't sustain 30-minute closes above these levels, they're still vulnerable to further retests of those support zones they dipped toward this morning.

Jane Fox : 10/1/2008 10:27:57 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The nation's manufacturers cut back production at a much faster pace than expected in September, the Institute for Supply Management reported Wednesday. This is the lowest level since October 2001. The ISM index plunged to 43.5% in September from 49.9% in August. This is the biggest drop in the index since 1984. The drop surprised economists. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by Marketwatch was for the index to slip only a bit to 49.6%. Readings below 50 indicate contraction. The ISM index has been holding near 50 since the summer. The previous low this year was 48.3 in February. Economists said the ISM index was near recessionary levels.

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 10:26:13 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey ... At this time, I've been unable to access this week's data.

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 10:26:26 AM

Bloomberg-- Hewlett-Packard Co., the world's largest personal-computer maker, agreed to buy LeftHand Networks Inc. for $360 million in cash to expand its storage offerings.

WASHINGTON (AFP) -- US video game retailer GameStop announced Wednesday that it had reached agreement to purchase French video game retailer Micromania for 700 million dollars (480 million euros).

Linda Piazza : 10/1/2008 10:23:44 AM

I can't remember if I posted this the other day or not, but I'd meant to do so. A few weeks ago, John Hussman issued a report saying that we wouldn't be anywhere near the bottom until we started hearing the term "free fall" with frequency. My own official gauge had been that the credit crisis might be nearing the end when we started seeing CNBC's ticker include the TED spread, something that I literally had difficulty researching when I wrote my first Trader's Corner article on it last spring and began covering it here on the Market Monitor. (This is not serious, by the way, or only halfway so.) Well, the ticker doesn't have the TED spread, but it does have the overnight and 3-month LIBOR rates.

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 10:21:44 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 10:17:50 AM

Crude Oil $98.28, NatGas $7.57, Gold $882.30, Euro 1.4002, Yen 105.42, 1-mos T-bill 0.63, 3-mos T Bill 0.67, 1-mos Libor 4.003, 3-mos Libor 4.15, TED spread 3.49

Linda Piazza : 10/1/2008 10:19:11 AM

Here's the press release for the ISM number if you'd like to scan it yourself: Link The report notes that this is the lowest reading since October, 2001, when a reading of 40.8 percent was calculated.

Linda Piazza : 10/1/2008 10:14:42 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: the A/D line's first prints this morning were just below the bullish/bearish benchmark, at about -335. There had appeared to be potential support near -760, but the A/D line has now dropped through that, too, and has set a potential downside target of -1916, bearish indeed. The A/D line is now -1203, not yet at a new low of the day, which is a bit concerning to bears. I know I said it often yesterday but I'll repeat it today: all this recent action has scrambled intraday charts in such a way that it's difficult to ascertain which is the "the" important benchmark level and which isn't likely to matter. For now, bears want to see the A/D line continue to drop and don't want to see it bounce hard, back above about -750.

Jane Fox : 10/1/2008 10:14:14 AM

I heard a program on the radio about a reporter from Harper's who went underground to reveal how lobbying works in DC. He concocted a phony company who was representing Natural Gas interests in a country with one of the worst dictatorships in the world. He originally wanted to use North Korea but decided on Turkmenistan a Stalinist regime. He wanted to see just how low these lobbyist firms would go.

He wanted to see if these firms would go to bat for a company trying to get US tax payers dollars to help this country. All four of the firms he contacted were very interested and only two asked any questions at all. He had a very dubious company and was representing a very very nasty regime and only two asked any questions and the only questions asked were who was your boss and where do you live. Not the kind of due diligence you would think should be asked. On the other hand he had them breaking his door down asking him when he will be signing a contract, one firm was even willing to fly over to London to meet this reporter. He was perceived as someone with a lot of money and that was all they needed.

He was told by one lobbyist that it didn?t matter what he wanted there was tax payers dollars available, you just had to know the right people.

So when I hear that banking lobbyist want mark to market rules removed I know they probably need to stay.

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 10:12:48 AM

General Electric (GE) $23.34 -8.47% ... notably weak to start the quarter.

Linda Piazza : 10/1/2008 10:11:18 AM

As I said earlier, factor in the possibility now of tests of 1137-1140 for the SPX, 531-533 for the OEX. That's not a given, but is certainly a possibility. In fact, the 15-minute charts are setting even lower targets, but let's see how the indices perform at these higher support tests before we consider too strongly those lower targets. For now, bears should remain very careful and bulls should adhere to their profit-protecting plans if they're still long from yesterday.

Linda Piazza : 10/1/2008 10:09:11 AM

Tab just mentioned the 43.5 number for the ISM. That's a disappointment, but I don't know that the markets are turning down again in response to that number. Rather, it looked to me as if they'd been primed to turn down and had been just holding up temporarily, perhaps as market participants hoped that the ISM would deliver some good news. If I'm remembering correctly, we've had some mixed evidence from regional manufacturing numbers, so there might have been some hope that it would come in above and not below the benchmark 50. That hope was certainly dashed.

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 10:06:51 AM

Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Report: September 43.5 Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 10:00:12 AM

European Markets Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 9:59:48 AM

Asian Markets Link

Linda Piazza : 10/1/2008 9:58:38 AM

Jane has probably already mentioned the ISM at 10:00, but I wanted to add my warning that although these numbers have been overshadowed by what's going on with the not-a-rescue-not-a-bailout plan, that particular number could be market changing. Decide right now if you want to hold your positions open or not, and act accordingly.

Linda Piazza : 10/1/2008 9:56:28 AM

The SPX also dropped below the rising trendline that it began establishing after the first 15-minute period yesterday, but then bounced back above it, only to drop into another challenge as I type. A new low of the day that's sustained, perhaps by a 30-minute close below 1149, would suggest a possible drop to next potential support near 1138.30-1140.60. For now, we don't know the outcome of the ongoing test, but at least consider the possibility of that drop, if not yet considering it a probability, when you're making your trading plans.

Linda Piazza : 10/1/2008 9:53:27 AM

I just noticed when I checked in that Keene is not going to be here the first hour. I'll stick around as long as I can.

The OEX dipped strongly but then climbed back above that 537-538 level, back above the rising trendline I had mentioned, by the close of the first 15-minute period. I would consider it still testing that potential S/R level, though, and not yet clearly above it. Some charts, such as the 10-minute one, look as if it's possible that the OEX will still keel over toward that next support level at 531-533. So, factor that possibility into your trading plans while not yet counting on it as a probability.

Jeff Bailey : 10/1/2008 9:52:05 AM

Michelin Plans New Truck Tire Plant In Indiana

Jane Fox : 10/1/2008 9:48:32 AM

One more item about the mark to market rules, banking lobbyists have been fighting with everything they have to relax fair value accounting so another reason we should NOT relax them.

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 9:43:09 AM

Small Banks Score a Coup by Lobbying Link

Jane Fox : 10/1/2008 9:42:33 AM

AD line is a bearish -1218 and the VIX is climbing so it is the bears game this morning.

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 9:39:15 AM

$VIX 40.61 +1.22

$VXD 37.96 +1.35

$VXN 43.27 +0.69

$RVX 42.88 +1.16

Tab Gilles : 10/1/2008 9:37:09 AM

ADP Says U.S. Companies Decreased Payrolls by 8,000 Link

Linda Piazza : 10/1/2008 9:26:16 AM

Oh, before I go, I mentioned the TED spread, but failed to give the up-to-date figure. According to Bloomberg's delayed feed, the TED spread is currently 3.39. Sky high.

Keene Little : 10/1/2008 9:21:47 AM

With equity futures down this morning it's looking like we could get the sell signal from a drop below yesterday's rising wedges. If it's a true rising wedge the whole thing (yesterday's rally) will get retraced quickly. As strong as yesterday's rally was it hasn't proven to be anything more than just a bounce. If you took a couple of long puts home with you last night your stop should be just above yesterday's high.

I'm going to miss the first hour of trading--be back with you about 10:30 AM.

Jane Fox : 10/1/2008 9:21:35 AM

It looks like the SEC and the Financial Account Standards Board have issued guidelines for what they consider fair-value accounting. They stopped short of cancelling mark to market - a set of rules that requires companies to mark their assets and liabilities to market value each quarter - with the statement, "We felt strongly the standard shouldn't be suspended." Mark to market has been blamed for making the crisis we are in even worse because it forced the investment and commercial banks to write down over $100 billion in assets.

One example of the new guidelines is a company does not have to take into account an asset "fire sale" at another institution like Wachovia had to do when Washington Mutual ceased to exist.

Linda Piazza : 10/1/2008 9:21:04 AM

I will not be on the Market Monitor today. First I wanted to note that some big things are apparently happening with LIBOR this morning. The three-month LIBOR has gone up, and that's the one used in calculations of the TED spread. However, the overnight LIBOR rate has apparently been "cut in half" as per CNBC. I'm not sure why overnight LIBOR, the rate at which banks lend to each other, has been cut in half and how we juxtapose that against a rising three-month LIBOR and, therefore, high TED spread. A cutting in half of the overnight LIBOR would tend to point to an easing in the credit crunch, but the TED spread says default risks remain high. The SPX has a mixed performance as the TED spread is hitting a peak high anyway, as I've mentioned several times over the last months. Sometimes, the SPX is already recovering as it's hitting a peak high and sometimes, unfortunately, the drop is just beginning. Therefore, all market participants should keep in mind the possibility that further downside might be possible, although not a given.

If the OEX moves down in accordance with futures action this morning, we can extrapolate that it might drop to 537-538. This would be a test of the rising trendline under all 15-minute candles yesterday after the first one. Sustained 15-minute closes beneath 537.70 would confirm that the the OEX has broken beneath the rising channel in which it was climbing after that first 15-minute candle yesterday. That would make the OEX look vulnerable to a retest of the 531-533 support zone, where I would watch for potentially strong support. If that is tested and doesn't hold as support, then 524-525.50 will become a potential target, with a retest of Monday's low or even of the 514-516 zone even a possibility if that doesn't hold.

If the OEX does find support near 537-538 this morning and bounce again, there's potential resistance on 15-minute closes now at 546.30 and then 549.48. Watch for rollover potential there.

Jane Fox : 10/1/2008 9:08:26 AM

Here is a chart of the NDX, the Nasdaq 100, an index that does not have any financial stocks. Notice how the MACD made a lower low when the price made a lower low. Link Now take a look at the SPX and its MACD. Link I have heard some say that if you want to try a long position that the NDX would be the better index to play because it doesn't have financials but from what I can see between the SPX and the NDX I would pick the SPX.

Jane Fox : 10/1/2008 8:59:54 AM

Crude is struggling to stay above $100/bl but seems to be losing the battle. The rally off the September 16th lows was not able to bring the MACD above 0 but it was able to give us a bullish MACD divergence. Link

Jane Fox : 10/1/2008 8:55:37 AM

Here are the overnight charts and the series of lower lows and highs mean the trend is down but after the rally we saw yesterday that can only be expected.

We have had two back to back monster days and the markets need a rest. The Senate is voting tonight on the bill so I don?t see much in the way of moving the market today. Well we do have the economic reports out at 10:00 but those seem to have taken the back seat of late. Link

Jane Fox : 10/1/2008 8:45:56 AM

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Mortgage applications filed last week dropped a seasonally adjusted 23.0% compared with the previous week, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday.

Applications for the ended Sept. 26 were also lower than in the same week during 2007, down 28.4%, the Washington-based MBA said. The group's survey covers about one half of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications.

Applications to purchase a home were down a seasonally adjusted 10.9%, compared with the week before. Filings to refinance existing mortgages fell 34.7% on a week-to-week basis.

The four-week moving average for all loans was up 0.1%, according to the association's latest survey.

Refinancings made made up 44.0% of all applications, down from 51.6% the previous week, with adjustable-rate mortgages accounting for 3.3% of filings, down from 4.0%.

Jane Fox : 10/1/2008 8:44:35 AM

Oh and of course the Crude report at 10:35.

Jane Fox : 10/1/2008 8:43:44 AM

There is stil the 10:00 ISM and Construction Spending to be released today.

Jane Fox : 10/1/2008 8:42:32 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Large U.S. companies announced plans to eliminate 95,094 jobs in September, 33% more than a year earlier, according to a nonscientific tally released Wednesday by outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas.

For the third quarter, layoff announcements rose 48% from a year earlier to 287,142, the highest three-month total in nearly three years.

Although the collapse of several big financial firms dominated the news in September, the financial sector actually announced relatively few cuts during the month: 8,244.

"It may take several weeks or months for the fallout from September's Wall Street turmoil to hit the employment numbers," said John Challenger, CEO of the firm that bears his name.

Workers' fate, he said, "remains in limbo," while some firms are taken over by other banks, some are liquidated and others are taken over by the government.

Jane Fox : 10/1/2008 8:41:00 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Employment dropped by 8,000 in the private sector of the U.S. economy in September, according to the ADP employment index released Wednesday.

Economists were expecting the ADP index to fall 65,000 after it lost a revised 37,000 in August.

Counting some 20,000 jobs typically created in government agencies during a month, the ADP index signals growth of about 12,000 jobs in the nonfarm payroll report to be released Friday.

ADP does not include government employment. Economists expect a loss of 103,000 in nonfarm payrolls when it is reported Friday.

The ADP index has shown a much stronger job market this year than the government's nonfarm payroll report has.

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