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Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 5:22:55 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 5:20:20 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 5:08:08 PM

dj- US Govt. Says It Disrupts Plot To Assassinate Obama

The U.S. government Monday disclosed it disrupted a plan to assassinate Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama and kill 102 black people in Tennessee, The Associated Press reported. Unsealed court records show U.S. agents prevented two skinheads' plan to rob a gun store and attack a predominately black high school. An official said the skinheads then planned a national killing spree targeting Obama at the end.

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 4:40:19 PM

dj- EIA: US retail gasoline price lowest since March 26, 2007!
US retail gasoline -25.8c on week to $2.656/gal

Keene Little : 10/27/2008 4:26:23 PM

With SPX closing at the trend line along the lows since October 15th it leaves me guessing what will happen tomorrow. Unfortunately the pattern is not clear enough to make a pound-the-table recommendation here (except I still like the short side). The price action over the past two weeks is doing a masterful job at hiding its intentions for tomorrow. The key levels for now are today's high near 894 and a break lower than 824. SPX 60-min chart updated: Link

Keene Little : 10/27/2008 4:07:54 PM

The sharp drop has SPX hitting the trend line along the lows from October 16th, potentially the bottom of a descending wedge. The problem with that wedge pattern now is that the bounce from Friday really didn't get big enough. That's a subjective evaluation but it leads me to believe that we might have the start of a more serious decline here. But, and this is a big but, it could also be the completion of the leg down from last Monday's high and now we'll get a bounce back up as part of the 4th wave within a somewhat larger descending wedge.

NDX is still well above the bottom of its wedge so don't have confirmation between the two patterns. The only similarity I see is the potential for a serious decline to kick into gear. Short is the place to be but be careful about a possible strong reversal as part of a larger descending wedge pattern. Today's highs are now key levels to the upside.

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 4:03:02 PM

GVD-XU stop/target alert! ... stop will be $75.00 in the GLD. Target will be $65.00.

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 3:59:56 PM

Disclosure needed: I currently hold bearish position in the GLD.

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 3:59:16 PM

GLD $72.29 +0.11% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 3:59:04 PM

Swing trade put alert! ... for one (1) of the StreetTracks Gold GLD Dec. $73 Puts (GVD-XU) at the offer of $6.30.

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 3:48:11 PM

GLD $72.40 +0.26% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 3:47:37 PM

Swing trade call stopped alert! ... with GG $15.75 ... GG-KW $1.55 at the bid.

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 3:45:20 PM

GG $15.88 -6.64% ...

Jane Fox : 10/27/2008 3:43:26 PM

The VIX and TRIN are following one another and moving in the opposite direction to the AD volume and ratio. This is just like it should be but a closer look will show you the AD volume has spent very little time above 0 and the ratio above 1.00 so all in all it has not been what you could call a bullish day. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 3:20:45 PM

YM long stopped alert! ... 8,394

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 3:19:03 PM

YM long raise stop alert! ... to even.

YM 8,424.

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 3:16:21 PM

YM long ... stop goes 8,375. Target 8,490

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 3:15:47 PM

YM Long alert! ... here at 8,394

Keene Little : 10/27/2008 3:15:14 PM

The decline from today's high looks impulsive--pretty clean 5-wave move down. Watch for another retest of today's broken uptrend line, perhaps up near SPX 880 (maybe the Gann 882 level) to see if it sets up another shorting opportunity.

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 3:09:52 PM

DIA, SMH and BIX.X only equity-based to see trade at WKLY Pivots so far today.

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 3:01:39 PM

Humana (HUM) $30.89 -14.83% ... Earnings Press Release Link from earlier this morning.

I thought they were slated to be released 11/03/08.

Keene Little : 10/27/2008 2:56:18 PM

It was a kiss and a slap as SPX fell away from the retest. It was a good setup for a scalping day trade. Scalps in this market can net you 20 S&P points in a heart beat.

Keene Little : 10/27/2008 2:52:08 PM

SPX is back for a test of today's broken uptrend line near 877. A kiss goodbye here would be at least short term bearish. A recovery back above the uptrend line could be bullish for another new daily high.

Keene Little : 10/27/2008 2:40:39 PM

SPX is breaking today's uptrend line without first making a new high for today and the pattern for today's bounce does not look complete. That raises the possibility that we're stuck in a small sideways consolidation inside a larger sideways consolidation pattern. What it all means is we can expect just a lot of chop while the market is on hold (until FOMC on Wednesday?).

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 2:38:56 PM

December Crude (cl08z) per Wednesday's wrap Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 2:31:18 PM

dj- Boone Pickens says losses since July now at $2B

Keene Little : 10/27/2008 2:21:15 PM

Here's a setup to watch on SPX: the bounce off this morning's low could be forming a small ascending wedge for wave-c of an a-b-c bounce off Friday morning's low. Equality would be at 899.34. Keep an eye on the uptrend line from this morning, currently near 875.60, as it should hold if the c-wave up is not finished yet. SPX 30-min chart: Link

If SPX climbs above 900 it could be headed to the 926-930 area. If price breaks today's uptrend line it will probably head for a new low.

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 2:11:40 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 1:50:52 PM

GG / GLD 30-minute interval Pivot montage Link

Keene Little : 10/27/2008 1:26:23 PM

Based on how corrective the bounce off Friday's low looks I've removed one of the alternate counts from the SPX 60-min charts which showed the possibility for a stronger rally above the downtrend line from October 14th. While anything is possible in this market I have to go with what I consider the higher-probability scenarios and right now the current bounce is pointing lower, either from here or after a relatively minor new high today/tomorrow. 60-min chart update: Link

If SPX were to drop sharply and get below 824, the key level to the downside, I would think we're going to see the 768 level get tagged quickly (and eventually break). But if it chops its way lower over the next few days, shown in pink, then I'll be looking for a minor new low and a tradable bottom for another bigger bounce into December.

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 1:24:32 PM

GG $17.08 +0.41% ... WKLY Pivot just ahead at $17.84

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 1:24:11 PM

GLD $73.33 +1.55% ... probes WKLY Pivot.

Keene Little : 10/27/2008 1:08:38 PM

The bounce for NDX would have two equal legs up from Friday's low at 1254. That would take it above its downtrend line from October 14th. I had mentioned earlier that if we see the market rally we could have NDX getting above the top of its descending wedge pattern if SPX is going to make it closer to its downtrend line, currently near 930. So that remains a possibility. The updated NDX 60-min chart shows the potetential for a throw-over above the top of the wedge followed by a throw-under to finish it. The more bearish possibility remains for a hard decline following this bounce (dark red). Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 12:59:26 PM

QQQQ $29.82 +0.47% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 12:59:09 PM

VXN.X 74.28 -5.88% ... slips below WKLY Pivot.

Jane Fox : 10/27/2008 12:49:28 PM

VIX remains bullish but the AD line at -354 does not support that bullishness. Link

Keene Little : 10/27/2008 12:47:24 PM

The one thing that will get me out of my short positions will be a choppy rise today followed by a choppy decline to a minor new low (maybe to the 824 level on the square-of-nine chart) this week. That would be more indicative of an ending pattern to the descending wedge. In that case I would exit my shorts and perhaps jump into a small long position for a bounce into December (potentially). After that bounce is when I'd be looking to get short again for a ride down to SPX 661 (potentially) early next year.

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 12:46:59 PM

Zions Bancorp. (ZION) $36.78 +14.08% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 12:45:51 PM

NCC-AZ $0.20 x $0.25

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 12:45:19 PM

National City (NCC) $2.20 +6.28% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 12:44:59 PM

PNC Financial (PNC) $61.00 +3.60% ...

Keene Little : 10/27/2008 12:30:26 PM

When you look at the longer-term chart of SPX, back to the low in October 2002, you can see that it's currently in the middle of nowhere. There's no price support until the 2002/2003 lows (768/789) and then closest price level resistance is 945-954, the Sept 2001 low and Dec 2002 high. That's one of the reasons I've gone the Gann Square of Nine chart as it helps identify potentially important levels as relates to cycles and Fibonacci relationships.

As I've pointed out in the recent past, the 2002 low of 768 and 2007 high of 1576 are "square" to each other by 6 cycles around the square of nine chart. I've highlighted two other levels that are squared to 768--one cycle above and one cycle below at 882 and 661, resp.: Link

The 882 level is where SPX is currently struggling. If price gives way from here I'll follow the chart around, counter clockwise, to watch price levels at each 90 degrees. Notice the next level down is 852 which acted as support at Friday's low. Not shown but the next 90 degrees around is 824 then 796 and then the 768.

Considering the larger picture of what's happening here, with the market essentially consolidating above the October 2002 low, I don't think that low is going to hold. Consider what happens any time the market consolidates below resistance or above support--usually that resistance or support level gives way. A quick spike through resistance or support, without first consolidating in front of it, usually leads to failure of the "test".

Therefore, assuming 768 will break I think it's not unreasonable to think that we'll see another cycle around the square of nine chart and that means 661 for a low for the year. That's not a guaranteed move but that's a target if the market suddenly lets go to the downside. And that's why I'm continuing to hold onto my short position.

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 12:26:21 PM

FXE $124.88 -0.80% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 12:25:29 PM

Swing trade call establish stop alert! ... for the one (1) GoldCorp GG Nov $17.50 Call (GG-KW) at $15.75 in the underlying.

GG $16.42 -3.46% ...

GG-KW currently $1.80 x $1.95

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 12:09:02 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 11:55:43 AM

dj (10:29 AM)- Dallas Fed Oct. Mfg:
-13.7 Vs. Sep -21.4
Business activity -59.4 Vs. Sep -39.6

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 11:53:43 AM

US 6-Month Bills Auction:
1.400%; 5.51% at the high; Bid-to-cover was 3.28%

Keene Little : 10/27/2008 11:52:47 AM

I am still in November puts, which have a month to expiration. I take it by reading your comments, that you would still hold these? Am I reading you correctly.

Depending on how much ITM vs. OTM they are. Mine are ITM so I?m not as worried about time decay. The more OTM they are the more you have to worry about the time decay taking away from potential gains with a market drop later. There is the possibility we could see a sideways continuation through this week. Then who knows, maybe a brief rally after the election before heading lower again. Could your November puts tolerate that kind of move?

My guess is that the market will drop sooner than that and the most I would expect is a brief rally this week up to the downtrend lines from October 14th but that could take a couple of days while it chops its way higher. If those downtrend lines get challenged I'll then make a judgment call as to whether it looks like it will head higher or not. For now price action is clearly corrective (overlapping highs and lows, consolidating sideways) and that continues to point to lower lows ahead of us.

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 11:52:44 AM

US 3-Month Bills Auction:
0.900%; 97.74% at high; Bid-to-cover 2.99

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 11:51:40 AM

dj- BOC's C$1B Special Auction Only Gets C$25M Bids

Keene Little : 10/27/2008 11:22:57 AM

While I don't have a good sense about the short-term direction of this market, considering we could see a rally to the downtrend lines from October 14th (top of the potential descending wedges), I have very little doubt that we will see lower lows ahead. I'm still in a longer-term short position and waiting for the next low. Depending on whether we get a bounce to the top of the wedges first or collapse from here will help me determine how low I think we could see the market drop.

Keene Little : 10/27/2008 11:15:41 AM

This morning's 3-wave bounce was followed by a 3-wave pullback. This market could literally go anywhere and there just aren't enough clues yet to suggest which direction is the higher probability. Quick scalping trades is about all you can try right now.

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 11:13:18 AM

Savient Pharma (SVNT) $2.82 -75.56% ... Shares sharply lower after presentation at the 72nd annual meeting of the American College of Rheumatology Conference. Data presented at the sessions extended the positive clinical results previously reported and further demonstrated the safety and efficacy of this novel biological drug in treatment for up to one year or longer. The results from the OLE study were consistent with findings from the Phase 3 studies, both of which met the primary endpoint relating to the normalization of plasma uric acid, for pegloticase 8 mg intravenous infusion every 2 weeks or every 4 weeks. A substantial subset of patients who completed the Phase 3 clinical trials and enrolled in the OLE continued to show improvements in the resolution of their signs and symptoms of treatment-failure gout with continuing pegloticase treatment, extending the positive clinical results seen in Phase 3. The two clinical efficacy endpoints of most interest, gout flares and gout tophi, showed an increasing proportion of patients with favorable response over time.

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 11:02:29 AM

Most Actives ... SPY $87.04 (unch), MSFT $21.23 -3.32%, INTC $14.17 -0.77%, AAPL $95.09 -1.33%, QQQQ $29.19 -1.54%, CSCO $16.49 +1.10%, SVNT $3.07 -73.92%, AIG $1.40 -17.64%, AMR $9.65 +9.65%, AUY $3.92 -2.72%

Jane Fox : 10/27/2008 10:57:38 AM

Since the lows made on October 10th, the SPX has basically consolidated at those yearly lows. Now notice how the MACD is it rising and many would look at this as a bullish MACD divergence. I read this kind of formation differently and think it is bearish and the SPX will make new lows before it rallies. Link

Keene Little : 10/27/2008 10:43:46 AM

Playing with some QCharts 6.0 settings I changed a setting in View--Preferences--Multi-Minute Bars and selected "Build bars from largest interval...(requires higher bandwidth)" and that seems to fill in the missing data. So if anyone else is experiencing the same problem you can try that.

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 10:27:26 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Keene Little : 10/27/2008 10:25:45 AM

Suddenly QCharts filled in the missing data during the first hour since last Thursday. Hoping it'll now stay there.

We've got essentially a doji forming for the first hour of trading and in the middle of space inside the descending wedges and Friday's highs and lows gives us a wide price range (as is the overnight price swing). So far this morning's bounce looks corrective (3-wave bounce) and that suggests lower prices but it could also be just part of a larger bounce. I see no setups at the moment--just continued chop.

Keene Little : 10/27/2008 10:17:56 AM

For some reason QCharts 6.0 will not update my pricing during the first hour (since Thursday). Highly frustrating. I can't even get it to switch servers (no idea which server I'm on) like I could with 5.1 when I saw this problem in the past. I'd say something nasty about eSignal/QCharts right now but I need to keep it clean.

Jane Fox : 10/27/2008 10:16:43 AM

AD line is -674 bearish but not overly so. This does not support the bullish VIX and probably means we are in for some choppy trading.

Jane Fox : 10/27/2008 10:15:35 AM

TRIN is 0.75 but that may be due to an infusion of cash once again.

Jane Fox : 10/27/2008 10:15:06 AM

VIX reached a high of 77.19 so far this morning but is now down to 75.00 and continues to make new daily lows. This means the bulls are trying their darnest to stay alive.

Jane Fox : 10/27/2008 10:07:51 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Sales of new homes rose an estimated 2.7% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 464,000 in September, the Commerce Department reported Monday, close to the 460,000 pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Sales surged 23% in the West, bouncing back from a similar decline in August. Nationally, sales in September were down 33% compared with September 2007. The inventory of unsold homes fell a record 7.3% in September to 394,000, the lowest in four years. In the past year, inventories have fallen 25.4%, the biggest drop since the government began tracking the data in 1963. The median sales price fell to $218,400, down 9.1% in the past year.

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 9:59:43 AM

Banks Partake in US Govt. Stock-Purchase Effort DJ- A host of financial firms announced they will sell more than $20 billion of preferred stock and warrants to the federal government as they raise capital amid the deepening global crisis, potentially to pick off weakened rivals.

The biggest morning disclosure was Capital One Financial Corp.'s (COF) $3.55 billion sale of preferred stock and warrants to the Treasury Department, followed by SunTrust Banks Inc. (STI) at $3.5 billion. The Southeastern bank also announced it will cut its dividend 30%.

Capital One spokeswoman Tatiana Stead said the investment "puts us in a stronger position to take advantage of opportunities that may emerge from the current banking environment."

Other banks gave similar sentiments, with SunTrust Chairman and Chief Executive James M. Wells III saying the extra money will allow his company to expand, though the current climate calls for elevated capital levels even if expansion wasn't being considered.

In unveiling the program last month, the Treasury Department required nine of the nation's largest financial-services companies to sell $125 billion in preferred stock to the government and said the same amount could be bought from other companies on a voluntary basis. Companies have until 5 p.m. EST Nov. 14 to say they want to join the program.

It has been speculated that $250 billion, originally intended to foster lending, would be used by recipient banks to buy weaker rivals.

Other firms announcing their participation included Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) at $3.4 billion, Ohio-based regional bank KeyCorp (KEY) at $2.5 billion and Dallas-based Comerica Inc. (CMA) at $2.25 billion.

As part of its planned $5.58 billion purchase of National City Corp. (NCC), PNC Financial Services Group Inc. (PNC) said Friday that it planned to sell $7.7 billion, making it one of the first banks to elect to participate in the government's effort to inject capital into banks through preferred-share investments.

As for its dividend cut, SunTrust's Wells said, "Even though SunTrust has been managing successfully through this difficult period," lowering the payment "is the responsible thing to do given recent deterioration in the economy, the prospect of continued weakness in 2009 and the implications of this on the near-term outlook for SunTrust and our industry."

Several banks detailed how the additional capital would help them.

If the $2.5 billion would have been in hand as of Sept. 30, KeyCorp said its Tier 1 ratio level would have been about 10.8%, not the 8.5% recorded.

Comerica said its level would have climbed to 10.4% from 7.4%. Chief Executive Ralph W. Babb Jr. noted the investment would also help in making loans to new and existing customers.

Ohio-based Huntington Bancshares Inc. (HBAN), which has agreed to get $1.4 billion, will see its Tier 1 ratio rise three percentage points to 11.9%, with the investment allowing the company "to expand our lending efforts to both existing and new customers throughout our Midwest footprint," said Chairman and Chief Executive Thomas E. Hoaglin.

Fifth Third shares rallied 9% and Huntington climbed 5.6%, bucking the broad-based selloff in early Monday trading, while the other firms were lower.

Jane Fox : 10/27/2008 9:56:38 AM

Here is a chart of Gold (green) and the US dollar (Red) or the US $ against a basket of currencies since you cannot look at the US$ in isolation just in relation to another currency. Link

Keene Little : 10/27/2008 9:49:18 AM

If the descending wedge idea is the correct pattern we could see price flop around inside these wedges and not have any particular meaning. Wedge patterns are typically filled with choppy price action and with the large price swings of late choppy price action can mean some big price moves and not mean much. Unfortunately we have to wait and watch for price action around the top or bottom of the wedge to help determine where the market might head next.

Jane Fox : 10/27/2008 9:45:12 AM

Here is the Crude and Commodity index chart with Gold (Green). Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 9:43:44 AM

This Week's Global Economic Calendar Link

Jane Fox : 10/27/2008 9:43:12 AM

Here is a chart of Crude (Black) and the Commodity Index CIY (Red). Needless to say Crude has a huge affect on this index. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2008 9:38:50 AM

Asian Markets Link ... took it on the chin again Monday. Japan's Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) fell to a 26-year low.

Jane Fox : 10/27/2008 9:33:44 AM

October 30th, is the 3Q release of the GDP and economists are predicting it will fall by 0.6%. This has the attention of Bernanke and it is being predicted he will cut interest rates again next week when the FOMC meets again. A ? point cut will bring the FED Funds rate down to 1% the lowest level since 2004.

Keene Little : 10/27/2008 9:22:49 AM

The pattern of lower lows and lower highs continues in the futures and while there's been a nice recovery off the lows put in around 4:00 AM (about 250 points lower on YM than current futures) it will unfortunately be a magnet for a retest after the cash market opens. Of course last night's high was about 250 points higher so maybe that will get retested as well. That's only a 500-point swing potential today (wink).

Jane Fox : 10/27/2008 9:19:28 AM

Here is a chart of Crude, about the only good news I can find. Gas prices have fallen a great deal lately yet we are not hearing too much about it are we? Link

Jane Fox : 10/27/2008 9:10:05 AM

As I type the S&P futures (ES) are down -9.00 and the DOW (YM) down -41 so that was a nice recovery.

Jane Fox : 10/27/2008 9:08:16 AM

Here are your overnight charts. Looks like all markets but the Russell 2000 (TF) was able to break its previous day low then rebound nicely from those lows. Volatility overnight has gotten to the point traders who daytrade the equity indexes can trade almost 24/7 now. Link

Jane Fox : 10/27/2008 9:05:03 AM

Good morning all. Looks like the only economic report this morning is New Home Sales at 10:00. Funny how unimportant that report used to be.

Jane Fox : 10/27/2008 9:03:27 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Hungarian stocks tumbled on Monday as the International Monetary Fund said it would offer the country a "substantial financing package" after already agreeing to lend Ukraine $16.5 billion.

The region's woes added to financial turmoil Monday, with stocks declining around the world on fears of a global recession.

Hungary's BUX stock index moved off early lows but remained 7.3% lower Monday afternoon.

"It is worrying that the CEE (Central and Eastern European) markets continue to sell off despite IMF's clear commitment to support the region's markets and economies," wrote analysts at Danske Bank in Copenhagen.

Jane Fox : 10/27/2008 9:01:15 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Goldman Sachs Group approached Citigroup Inc. over the possibility of merging the firms in September, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal. The call was made by Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein to Citi's Vikram Pandit not long after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy protection on Sept. 15, the newspaper said. The call didn't lead to further talks, but the fact it occurred at all underscores the severity of the crisis, the newspaper reported.

Keene Little : 10/26/2008 10:04:37 PM

Monday's pivot table: Link

Friday's setup was either very bearish with an immediate hard decline in the works (dark red wave count) or else it was all part of a choppy decline that could be part of a bottoming process in descending wedges (pink wave count):
SPX 60-min chart: Link
NDX 60-min chart: Link

If the descending wedges are correct then we should get a bounce Monday to get back up to the tops of the wedges before turning back down again. The picture is slightly different between SPX and NDX in that the top of the wedge for NDX is closer, near 1254 (+4.3%) vs. 936 for SPX (+6.6%). We could see a throw-over above NDX or a leg up that falls short for SPX before rolling back over into a choppy decline for a bottom early in the week.

Futures are up this evening so we could start the day on the upside. But if we get an immediate decline Monday morning that would raise the probability that we're into a stronger decline. The daily charts show what it could like for a lower low by mid November before bouncing/consolidating into the end of the year. Otherwise look for a bounce up on Monday to be followed by a decline into mid week to then set up the larger bounce.
SPX daily chart: Link
NDX daily chart: Link

OI Technical Staff : 10/26/2008 9:59:59 PM

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