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Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 7:55:52 PM

Asian Markets: Link ... $NIKK open ... up 2.43% at 9,336.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 7:53:09 PM

Major Global Indexes, Currencies, Oil, Gold, HUI.X, OIX.X, XLF and DJUSHB at their respective 11/04/08 closes Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 7:42:50 PM

US President Race '08 Map Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 7:38:07 PM

Reuters- McCain Wins Kentucky

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 7:37:47 PM

Reuters- Obama Wins Vermont

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 7:33:13 PM

YM 10-minute interval chart on Election'08 Night. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 7:13:23 PM

Senate Race '08 Map Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 7:11:00 PM

YM ... settled 9,587. Currently off 11 at 9,576

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 7:06:55 PM

dj- Democrat Warner Winds Key US Senate Seat From Virgina

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 7:05:22 PM

Blotter of CLOSED and OPEN/active trades that I (Jeff Bailey) have made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 7:01:19 PM

Swing trade long raise stop alert! ... for shares of Coeur D' Alene Mines (CDE) $0.73 +10.60% ... to $0.57.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 6:57:42 PM

Swing trade long raise stop alert! ... for shares of Pulte Home (PHM) $11.30 +8.13% ... to $10.75.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 6:41:32 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 6:28:32 PM

Closing Election Day '08 Market Watch Link

Tab Gilles : 11/4/2008 5:13:54 PM

As I noted the other day on the SPY call spread trade....looking for the election to be a catalyst. However, this rally maybe short lived, as Friday's employment number could end the party.

Election Day Rallies

2008 +3.28%

1980 +1.37%

2004 +1.21%

1956 +1.0%

1996 +0.65%

Tab Gilles : 11/4/2008 4:20:12 PM

Closing #s -- Open Positions:

SPY $100.41 +$3.30 (3.4%)

Bullish Call Spread 1/3 position- - SWG-LQ $9.40/ $9.55; SWG-LV $6.05/ $6.30 [ $3.10 - 2.80 = +$0.30 (10.7%) ]

Apple (AAPL) $110.99 +$4.03 (3.77%)

Call Spread QAA-LC $7.55/ $7.75; QAA-LD $5.55/ $5.70 [ $1.85 - cost basis $2.20 -$0.35 (16%) ]

Keene Little : 11/4/2008 4:09:26 PM

The Gann Square of Nine chart shows 1005-1006 to be square to the October 2002 low and October 2007 high. It finished today at 1005.72. Tomorrow will be an important day, for our country and the market.

Tab Gilles : 11/4/2008 4:08:17 PM

Closing #s

$DJIA 9625.28 +305.45

$VXD 45.86 -5.21

$SPX 1005.69 +39.39

$VIX 47.66 -6.02

$COMPQ 1780.12 +53.79

$VXN 51.22 -5.00

$RUT 545.84 +7.38

$RVX 55.77 -4.44

Jane Fox : 11/4/2008 4:02:26 PM

S&P futures (bottom chart) retraced 76.40% of its daily range before it staged the second part of its rally. The VIX retraced 76.40% as well but did not stage the second part so I'm not sure ES's new daily highs will have follow through. Link

Keene Little : 11/4/2008 4:02:20 PM

Oops, must have forgotten to nab a few short stops--coming back to get them.

Tab Gilles : 11/4/2008 4:02:03 PM

$SPX intraday high 1008.40...currently restesting.

Keene Little : 11/4/2008 3:58:37 PM

That looked a push back up to a new daily high (marginally) as an attempt to grab some stops that you know were there. NDX and RUT did not make new highs and so far that's bearish non-confirmation. That and the negative divergences tells me it was the 5th wave. Put option play into tomorrow as another attempt to catch the top. The risk is for a European rally tonight as they celebrate an Obama win and take our futures with them. Don't bet the house.

Tab Gilles : 11/4/2008 3:58:36 PM

$SPX finding nearterm resistance at the 1005 level.

Keene Little : 11/4/2008 3:47:45 PM

A wave count that works is for this afternoon's late-day thrust back to the upside as the completion of the 5th wave for the move up from Friday afternoon. That in turn could be completing the larger-degree 5-wave move up from October 28th. The projection for the final 5th wave is at 1005, the same as the strong Gann level. So a retest of today's high, which so far looks like it will be met with negative divergences, is setting up a potential selloff tomorrow. Buy the rumor, sell the news looks like a good play here.

Keene Little : 11/4/2008 3:38:47 PM

Price action still does not look impulsive to the downside but bounces have also been corrective (3-wave move), including the current bounce. It looks like we're just going to chop into the close. The setup is for a move down tomorrow and SPX now needs to break below its uptrend line from last Wednesday, currently near SPX 977, in order to declare the larger pullback (at a minimum) is in progress. In the meantime the short-term trend is up so be careful if shorting this. Could get interesting with a post-election reaction tomorrow. Updated 60-min chart: Link

Jane Fox : 11/4/2008 3:25:37 PM

Direxion Funds is preparing to list ETFs that will give investors a 300% leverage on the major market indexes for both long and short.

Now that is one position you would have to watch with an Eagle Eye.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 3:10:49 PM

Current CLOSED and OPEN/active trades that I (Jeff Bailey) have profiled at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 2:59:16 PM

I have to step away for remainder of session.

GET OUT THE VOTE!

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 2:58:53 PM

CI should be a short ... $17.58 ... target WKLY Piv

Keene Little : 11/4/2008 2:58:08 PM

It's definitely looking like some reallocation is in progress--from stocks into bonds.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 2:58:02 PM

UNH $22.74 -3.19% ... slips below its DAILY S2 (22.84)

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 2:56:28 PM

RVX.X 56.37 -6.37% ... DAILY R2 just above at 56.63

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 2:54:31 PM

RUT.X 537.74 -0.14% ... slips red.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 2:53:50 PM

02:49 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 2:47:57 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/4/2008 2:46:15 PM

I would not be betting against that strong AD line today. Link

Keene Little : 11/4/2008 2:41:34 PM

Another canary to watch is the bond market. We're starting to see stronger buying in bonds today and that could result from money sloshing out of stocks and back into bonds.

Keene Little : 11/4/2008 2:39:21 PM

Looks like small caps were the canary today with the VIX now rising.

Thanks Barry. With the stronger buying in the small caps, as fund managers hope for a year-end rally, I would not want to be long that index if some strong selling kicks in over the next few days. Time will tell.

Keene Little : 11/4/2008 2:22:24 PM

With SPX now dropping below 995 it should be a good signal that the high is now in. Certainly use today's high as your stop level now if short the market. We should start at a minimum a much larger pullback to correct the leg up from October 28th. More bearishly we'll start a leg down to a new annual low.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 2:19:29 PM

10-year has fallen below its WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 2:18:39 PM

5-year yield ... down 8.7 bp at 2.619% ... approaches WKLY S1 (2.608)

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 2:13:00 PM

Swing trade COVERED PUT buy back/close alert! ... for the one (1) Humana HUM Nov. $25 Put (HUM-WE) $0.25 x $0.40 ... at the offer of $0.40.

HUM $32.74 -1.79% ...

VIX.X 47.20 -12.07%

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 2:09:11 PM

CI $17.90 -6.62%
HUM $32.76 -1.73%
AET $24.56 -5.39%
UNH $22.97 -2.21%

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 2:08:15 PM

AET $24.55 ... session low. Gets the trade at DAILY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 2:04:53 PM

XLF $16.36 +4.73% ... gets the trade at its WKLY R1.

Tab Gilles : 11/4/2008 1:48:27 PM

"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity. And many an opportunity is lost because a man is out looking for four-leaf clovers." (Anon)

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:45:11 PM

Healthcare Providers (RXH.X) 317.59 -4.18% ... sector loser

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:44:33 PM

HMO.X 989.83 -0.16% ... slips red.

Tab Gilles : 11/4/2008 1:43:49 PM

United Natural Gas Fund (UNG) Link

NatGas Continous ($NATGAS) Link

$WTIC:$NATGAS Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:42:36 PM

One way to prepare for "crisis" ... is to be prepared.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:42:06 PM

HMO traders should at least KNOW "what to do" IF a -50% is traded. Right? Right!

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:40:48 PM

Now must THINK about HUGE spike down in CIG the other day. From "loser" to "winner" in the matter of hours.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:39:39 PM

equity/commodity arbitrage being narrowed ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:39:03 PM

OIX.X +9.14% and USO +4.09% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:38:37 PM

HUI.X +12.33% vs. GLD's +0.66% ... confirms my analysis from a couple of weeks ago.

Equities may be finding some favor. "Closes the gap" with the commodity.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:37:37 PM

Still ... RUT.X +10.84% since 10/29 close.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:36:49 PM

Yen and pound "stick out" as possible triggers.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:36:14 PM

Global Indexes, Currencies, USO, GLD, HUI.X, OIX.X, XLF and DJUSHB Link

Still trading INDU on down.

Tab Gilles : 11/4/2008 1:35:05 PM

Expeditors International (EXPD) $38.60 +$6.61 (20.65%)

Global logistics service provider reported Q3 EPS of $0.39 beats estimate of $0.37.

Testing 200-ma Link

Jane Fox : 11/4/2008 1:28:29 PM

September Factory orders dropped for the second straight month, 2.5 percent from August, proving the manufacturing sector continues to suffer from the economic downturn.

This was far more than the 0.8 percent drop expected by Wall Street economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters and on top of a revised 4.3 percent decline in August, which was the steepest in almost two years.

Big-ticket items such as construction machinery expected to last at least three years, durable goods orders -- -- rose by 0.9 percent, up from a preliminary estimate of 0.8 percent last week.

But that increase was overwhelmed by a 5.5 percent drop in orders of nondurable goods, which include food, clothes and petroleum products.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:27:46 PM

SPX +3.66% ... at current price, SPX +7.67% since last Wednesday's close.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:26:56 PM

CAC-40 finishes +4.62% ... Since Wednesday's close +8.50%

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:26:18 PM

DAX finishes +5.00% ... Since Wednesday's close +9.78%

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:25:35 PM

FTSE finishes +4.42% at 4,639.50 ... Since Wednesday's close +9.37% ...

Keene Little : 11/4/2008 1:24:06 PM

So far the pullback from this morning's high does not look impulsive and that raises the possibility for another push higher. It's a little early to tell so keep a tight stop on any short plays while we probe for a potential high here.

Tab Gilles : 11/4/2008 1:22:58 PM

GLD/USO/USD Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:20:46 PM

RUT.X 544.34 +1.08% ...

IWM $54.37 +1.02% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:19:53 PM

I think I saw a long call play on a small-cap index here in the MM a few days ago. Can't be certain.

If currently IN the money, could write a covered call?

Tab Gilles : 11/4/2008 1:18:14 PM

Euro ($XEU): Yen ($XJY)/ $SPX Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:18:22 PM

Analysis : PREMIUM sellers may be present in RUT.X/IWM

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:17:13 PM

RVX 55.93 -7.10% ... did see trade at WKLY S1 (54.25)

Tab Gilles : 11/4/2008 1:14:47 PM

SPX Link $VIX Link

$OEX Link $VXO Link

COMPQ Link $VXN Link

RUT Link $RVX Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:09:59 PM

RUT.X still below its QS2 (580.26) ... may "make sense" as it relates to currency action.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:07:50 PM

DXY 84.60

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:07:22 PM

10-year 3.877%

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:07:07 PM

SMH $21.01

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:06:56 PM

BIX 175.02

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:06:44 PM

RUT.X 546.19

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:06:29 PM

NDX.X 1,377

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:06:19 PM

OEX 479.79

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:06:07 PM

INDU 9,588

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:04:23 PM

SPX 998.77 +3.36% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:03:16 PM

CI $18.20 -5.10% ...
HUM $32.81 -1.58% ...
AET $24.76 -4.62%
UNH $24.00 +2.17% ...

Jane Fox : 11/4/2008 1:02:13 PM

Never ever forget to count your blessings. We all have them and the more you focus on them and the not the negative the better off you will be. Survivors from all over the globe have been studied and the one aspect that is universal among them is that they always tried to see a brighter side of their crisis, no matter how small.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 1:01:54 PM

AET $24.72 -4.77% ... has given up its WKLY Pivot.

Keene Little : 11/4/2008 1:01:20 PM

VIX has retraced 62% of its "rally" from the August low and at the same time has tagged its 50-dma. Daily oscillators have returned back to a potential support zone. If VIX turns back up it would of course mean the stock market is turning back down. Daily chart: Link

Jane Fox : 11/4/2008 12:59:34 PM

Take action but action that will move you forward and not get revenge. If you have been fired, your bank is foreclosing on you, lost your pension. Work to fix the situation and not to "fix" whoever you perceive has caused it. Life is not fair so don?t try to get even, work to get out of the situation.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 12:57:16 PM

QQQQ $33.76 +2.86% Link ... Does get a trade at $34.00 today.

$BPNDX Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 12:55:00 PM

From the LONG and SHORT side. "Crisis" not only inflicted on BULLS.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 12:54:07 PM

RISK management is KEY to surviving any "crisis" ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 12:51:47 PM

Blotter of OPEN/active trade profiles that I (Jeff Bailey) have made at this Link

At last night's close Link

Tab Gilles : 11/4/2008 12:49:56 PM

Jane, very true on the survivor mentality. Psychology plays a greater part on both extremes of both market fear and greed.

Jane Fox : 11/4/2008 12:50:45 PM

Next is Stay calm, get angry for a day and then use that anger to make it work for you. If your candidate does not get to the White House today, get angry for a day but then let it go and start working to make the situation - that you cannot change - work for you. Don?t spend the next four years proving how right you were that the guy in the White House is a loser, the only loser will be you.

Jane Fox : 11/4/2008 12:46:21 PM

I just found an article on how to survive any crisis and I think it is very good advice. We have just witnessed a financial crisis and many think if their particular candidate does not win the White House that our country is headed for another crisis - right or wrong those thoughts are very valid to those who hold them. Well let's all take a breath and figure out how to make things better, better for us, better for you, better for each individual.

First of all (and what I think could be the only one you need) is your attitude determines EVERYTHING. If you have a survivor attitude you will survive our financial crisis and any other crisis that may come your way. US Special Forces trainer once said if he had a guy who went through all the survivor training but had a negative attitude or a fellow who had no clue but had a positive attitude of coming out of a crisis alive, he would put his money on the guy with the positive attitude every time.

Tab Gilles : 11/4/2008 12:45:46 PM

Mid-day Report -- Open Positions:

SPY $100.10 +$2.99 (3.05%)

Bullish Call Spread 1/3 position- - SWG-LQ $9.00/ $9.1; SWG-LV $5.70/ $5.80 [ $3.20 - 2.80 = +$0.40 (14.2%) ]

Apple (AAPL) $110.23 +$3.22 (3.03%)

Call Spread QAA-LC $7.35/ $7.45; QAA-LD $5.40/ $5.50 [ $1.85 - cost basis $2.20 -$0.35 (16%) ]

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 12:42:51 PM

VIX.X 45.37 -15.48% ... premiums contracting

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 12:42:48 PM

NCC $2.69 +6.32% ... NCC-AZ now $0.50 x $0.55.

Intrinsic $0.19.

$2.69 - $2.50 = $0.19

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 12:35:22 PM

PNC $71.52 +4.60% Link ... after trade at, at, at $72.00.

BULL'S REWARD to trend ~$2.00.

RISK to 3-box reversal = $3.00. RISK to "buy signal" of $61 (see 10/24/08 MM) would be $72 - $61 = $11.

RISK to sell signal would be $72 - $42 = $30.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 12:28:15 PM

iShares S&P GSCI Commodity (GSG) $40.33 +8.97% ... trades its 21-day SMA.

Keene Little : 11/4/2008 12:24:32 PM

I've often referred to the Gann Square of Nine chart once SPX dropped into the "no support" zone between 1060 (the 2004 low) and 768-788 (October 2002 and March 2003 lows) as it provides some good levels to keep an eye on. As previously mentioned, prices along the same angle but at different levels are considered to be "squared" to each other and tend to be good support/resistance levels. As shown on the chart, SPX 1005 is square to both the October 2007 high and October 2002 low and is therefore potentially significant. Today's high so far is 1006 and I think there's a good chance it will hold. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 12:21:49 PM

FXY $99.05 -1.36% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 12:21:30 PM

SPX 1,001.29 ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 12:21:14 PM

FXY's WKLY S1 is $98.50

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 12:20:23 PM

DXY ... a WEIGHTED basket of foreign currencies against the dollar, also below its Q R2 (86.04).

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 12:18:46 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 12:07:50 PM

Major global indices, currencies ... Wednesday's Wrap Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 12:06:13 PM

Alert! Alert!

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 12:06:06 PM

SPX 1003.70 +3.87% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 12:05:49 PM

Hey! Q R2 $99.45

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 12:05:29 PM

FXY $99.06 -1.35% ... back below "par"

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 12:02:47 PM

GE $21.00 +8.80% ... notable move above its 21-day SMA today.

Keene Little : 11/4/2008 12:00:14 PM

Short-term bearish divergences are now showing up at the new daily highs so the momentum is waning.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 11:59:53 AM

Apex Silver Mines (AMEX:SIL) $1.61 +19.25% ... juuuust above its 21-day SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 11:58:50 AM

CDE $0.74 +12.12% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 11:58:35 AM

SLV alert! ... $10.31 +7.17% ... trades its 09/11 relative low close.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 11:56:46 AM

UNG daily interval with conventional. Benchmark of futures terminations Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 11:50:00 AM

UNG $30.99 +5.91% ... a couple of "patterns" here.

1) Has NOT been able to see 3 consecutive daily closes ABOVE its prior futures termination benchmark (10/29 was Nov. futures term.) Gapped above today (day 1?).

2) IF Dec. Nat. Gas futures can post a settlement gain today, it would be the FIRST +3 day in a row since 09/03 to 09/09 (5-day up in a row).

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 11:31:58 AM

CI -4.43% ...
HUM -0.59% ...
AET -0.19% ...
UNH +3.23% ...

Near-term strategy based on Longer-term analysis (political) revealed.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 11:20:46 AM

HMO.X ... was trading 2,124.62 on 12/31/07. At that time, market participants were not certain of Presidential candidates, however, we KNEW two possible front runners on the Democrat side were Senator Obama and Senator Clinton. We had an idea of their healthcare platforms.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 11:17:40 AM

As I think about my 2008 forecast, I'm also aware that we might be seeing the buy the news.

Don't forget, it is ELECTION DAY!

MANY SENATE RACES also.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 11:14:18 AM

SPX 1,002.81 +3.77% ...

HMO.X 1,000.29 +0.89% ...

Keene Little : 11/4/2008 11:13:39 AM

That little rising wedge pattern I showed on the SPX 60-min chart is not looking like a rising wedge at the moment. If changed to a little parallel up-channel the top of the channel is currently near 1013. That would coincide closely with DOW 9700.

Keene Little : 11/4/2008 11:11:55 AM

Today's rally sure has me wondering if we've got another buy the rumor, sell the news kind of day. Just as an election official commented, bulls will want a landslide victory tonight. If we start with lawsuits and election challenges flying left and right tomorrow the market may not like that kind of uncertainty. Thousands of lawyers are standing ready for tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 11:07:06 AM

UNH vs. SPY RS chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 11:06:34 AM

HUM vs. SPY RS chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 11:06:02 AM

CI vs. SPY RS chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 11:05:29 AM

AET vs. SPY relative strength chart Link

Keene Little : 11/4/2008 11:04:22 AM

Zooming in a little closer on the SPX 120-min chart I showed earlier, this 60-min chart shows the little rising wedge pattern for price action since last Wednesday: Link . It has now done a little throw-over so if it drops back below 995 it will create a sell signal. It then takes a break below yesterday afternoon's low near 960 to confirm the reversal signal. If the rally keeps going then the next upside Fib projection near 1047 is the target (but first DOW would have to deal with potential resistance near 9700).

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 11:03:21 AM

AET $25.73 -0.88% ... still holding above WKLY Pivot.

At this morning's open, AET was #157 weighting in SPX.

If it won't break BELOW a WKLY Pivot, shouldn't SPX WKLY R1 also be in play?

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 10:58:46 AM

INDU 9,594 +2.95% ... WKLY R1 9,805 in play. See last week's WKLY Pivot levels comments and test.

Jane Fox : 11/4/2008 10:53:42 AM

Fed Fisher says Fed's balance sheet might hit $3 Trillion by Jan

Keene Little : 11/4/2008 10:53:33 AM

Not much higher, at DOW 9700, is potentially strong resistance. It was a support level back in 2000, 2002 and 2004 so it has likely turned into resistance now. That's still about 130 points higher so if SPX can get through 1000 I'll be watching to see if the DOW can get up to the higher resistance level. Daily chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 10:51:28 AM

10:46 AM Market Watch ... as major US equity benchmark (SPX) trades its Quarterly S2. Link

Jane Fox : 11/4/2008 10:49:12 AM

Crude is up today but still in a very narrow trading range. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 10:45:08 AM

UNG $30.77 +5.16% ...
HUM $32.45 -2.66% ...
CDE $0.74 +12.12%
PHM $10.87 +4.01% ...
AVP $25.86 +2.49% ...
UNH $24.15 +2.80% ...

Tab Gilles : 11/4/2008 10:45:16 AM

Open Positions:

SPY $99.56 +$2.46 (2.52%)

Bullish Call Spread 1/3 position- - SWG-LQ $8.65/ $8.80; SWG-LV $5.45/ $5.55 [Net $3.10 -cost basis $2.80 +$0.30 (10%)]

The market has taken off this morning, I'm looking to add the 2nd-third position, but may hold off and not chase here...lets see how the remainder of the day plays out.

Apple (AAPL) $108.60 +$1.65 (1.36%)

Call Spread QAA-LC $6.75/ $6.85; QAA-LD $5.05/ $5.10 [ $1.75 - cost basis $2.20 -$0.45 (20%)

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 10:42:31 AM

SPX Alert! 996.80 +3.15% ... gets the trade at QS2.

Jane Fox : 11/4/2008 10:39:35 AM

There have been times when the electoral (the real person you vote for) has voted for a different candidate so the constitution now states that is a big no-no.

In most elections the electoral college results match the popular vote but there are times when these two do not match. Case in point in 2000 Gore got the popular vote but lost the electoral college vote

Keene Little : 11/4/2008 10:38:13 AM

The move up from yesterday afternoon's low now looks like a completed 5-wave move and SPX is "close enough" to the Fib projection zone of 997-999. Start looking for an opportunity to nibble on a short play here. ES may be doing a retest of its pre-market high at 995.75 (about a point higher).

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 10:35:19 AM

BPSPX Link ... was 40.20% at last night's close. SPX QRTRLY S2 should get traded.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 10:33:51 AM

SPX 993.32 +2.79% .... QRTRLY S2 (996.25) just ahead.

Jane Fox : 11/4/2008 10:29:45 AM

Internals are very bullish today, even the TRIN. :) Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 10:28:21 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Note(s): For the NYSE's 5-day NH/NL ratio, it would take a CLOSING session measure of >=8.00% to see a 3-box reversal back higher. For the NASDAQ's 5-day NH/NL ratio, it would take a CLOSING session measure of >=8.00% to see a 3-box reversal back higher.

Both charted on 2% box size.

Jane Fox : 11/4/2008 10:23:30 AM

Each state receives a number of electoral votes equal to its number of representatives in the House of Representatives plus the two senators.

Jane Fox : 11/4/2008 10:20:32 AM

Each party picks a slate of people and voters vote for the person representing the party they have chosen. So a vote for either Obama or McCain is not a vote for either one but a vote for the person who represents either one although this person's name is not on the ballot. On December 15th these representatives meet and they then vote for the person they represent.

The US Constitution requires electors to vote for at least one person, president or vice president, who is not from that elector's state so no president and vice president can come from the same state.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 10:20:32 AM

ZION $43.67 +6.48% Link ... from subscriber email several days ago.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 10:19:34 AM

NCC $2.62 +3.55% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 10:19:02 AM

PNC $70.00 +2.38% Link ... X gets another square.

Keene Little : 11/4/2008 10:18:10 AM

After this morning's initial high it looks like a corrective pullback so far so I'm expecting another push higher. I continue to like the Fibs just under SPX 1000 for a high for the current bounce. The price pattern since the October 10th low continues to leave open several possibilities for what's playing out and I don't think it will become clearer until the next pullback gets underway. But for now each of the different scenarios is pointing to at least a pullback to correct the leg up from October 28th, as shown on this SPX 120-min chart: Link

Tab Gilles : 11/4/2008 10:17:40 AM

What stocks will perform best under Obama/McCain?

Obama

Solar stocks, Claymore Global Solar (TAN) $13.10 +$1.11 (9.26%) Link

NatGas; UNG $30.42 +$1.16 (3.96%) Link

ProShares Ultra Healthcare (RXL) $39.95 +0.66 (1.68%) Link

McCain

Drill Baby Drill! Oil Service (OIH) $98.85 +5.12 (5.47%) Link

Oil Fund (USO) $54.28 +$1.79 (3.41%)

Defense- Power Shares Aerospace/Defense (PPA) $14.44 +0.22 (1.5%) Link Link

Jane Fox : 11/4/2008 10:12:57 AM

The US has the longest elections on planet earth and is the only democratic country to use the Electoral College as opposed to a popular vote. Have you ever wondered why the US uses the electoral college and not the popular vote?

Back on 1787 our constitutional Fathers considered the popular vote but feared without sufficient information from outside a voter's home town people would naturally vote for their "favorite son" and the president would be chosen by the most populous states or regions. To solve this problem it was agreed upon to use a method of indirect popular vote that became the Electoral College.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 10:01:58 AM

CI, HUM, AET, UNH 30-minute interval montage. Same retracement, turn on QCharts' WKLY Pivot Levels Link

Tab Gilles : 11/4/2008 10:01:01 AM

$VIX 49.09 -4.59 (8.49%)

$VXO 49.75 -4.47 (8.24%)

$VXD 27.24 -3.83 (7.50%)

$VXN 53.01 -3.21 (5.59%)

$RVX 56.98 -3.15 (5.23%)

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 9:58:49 AM

Analysis: Based on last week's H/L/C (regular session only), AET somewhat technically weaker on a week-to-week basis. Will monitor computer activity bias at the WKLY Pivot.

Tab Gilles : 11/4/2008 9:58:48 AM

TED Spread October 10th 4.43%, Currently 2.21%

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 9:55:57 AM

CI $18.02 -6.04%
HUM $32.08 -3.77%
AET $25.54 -1.61%
UNH $23.77 +1.19% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 9:54:38 AM

Aetna (AET) $25.45 -1.96% ... testing WKLY Pivot from above.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 9:45:32 AM

Today's Global Econ. Calendar Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 9:43:59 AM

yg ... up $15.60 at 742.50. Continues to battle with 09/11/08 settle.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 9:42:10 AM

Monday's Global Econ. Calendar Link

Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its cash rate 75 bp to 5.25%.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 9:40:05 AM

Asian Markets: Link ... finished mixed-to-higher. $NIKK +6.27% at 9,114.60; $HSI -2.21% at 14,384; $SSEC -0.76% at 1,707.

Jane Fox : 11/4/2008 9:36:53 AM

The vix closed yesterday at 53.68 and opens this morning at 50.54.

Jane Fox : 11/4/2008 9:35:59 AM

AD line opens at a very bullish +1330

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 9:40:01 AM

European Markets: Link

$FTSE is up 2.2% at 4,541; DAX up 1.59% at 5,107; $CAC +2.32% at 3,610.

Jane Fox : 11/4/2008 9:35:04 AM

What I heard on CNBC is the overnight rally was due to Europe because overseas favors the Democratic ticket. Don?t know but that is what I heard.

Keene Little : 11/4/2008 9:29:39 AM

We may have a little "Republican" support for the overnight futures in hopes of getting a nice rally today. Put people in a better mood to pull the Republican handle (wink).

Jane Fox : 11/4/2008 9:23:56 AM

Looks like traders are in a fine mood this morning and have taken the futures on huge ride upwards. After yesterday's anemic showing, I am quite surprised of this move, I suspected today would be just as anemic or even worse until we found out who won the presidential election. Link

Keene Little : 11/4/2008 9:23:46 AM

With this morning's bounce in the futures it looks like SPX has a better chance of reaching the 1000 area. Price action around that level (and whether or not bearish divergences continue) will be important in helping determine whether the rally will continue or instead turn back down.

Jane Fox : 11/4/2008 9:11:52 AM

Good morning to all on this most important election day. Hopefully you will all be going to the polls today if you have not already sent in mail-in ballots.

The only economic report out today is the 10:00 Factory Orders which economist are suspecting will show us further weakening of our economy.

WE also have FOMC member Fisher speaking at 10:45.

Keene Little : 11/4/2008 1:27:38 AM

Tuesday's pivot table: Link

There hasn't been much of a change to the SPX daily chart to suggest whether or not we'll see a little more rally up to the 1000 area before pulling back again or if we'll start back down from here. The oscillators are providing some clues at the moment. It's not shown on this daily chart but stochastics has made it back up into overbought while MACD heads for the zero line. RSI hasn't been able to get above the 50 line. If all three turn back down (from overbought, the zero line and the 50 line, resp.) we'll have a sell signal. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/3/2008 10:27:23 PM

Closing US Market Watch Link

OI Technical Staff : 11/3/2008 9:59:59 PM

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