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Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 9:52:44 PM

Major Global Indexes, Currencies, USO/oil, GLD/gold ... Link

Per trader email, I highlight "yellow" the eur and USO and GLD.

Wednesday-to-Wednesday's, then a 2008 YTD observation, then a Quarter-to-Quarter

USO/Euro "out of whack" in Q2.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 9:52:34 PM

Excellent Thought Process! ...

Trader email ... no one has mentioned europe is supposed to cut int rate.5% the up$ down oil

Jeff's Reply: Kind'a busy today!

Good to "think ahead." I've noted it in my brain, just haven't had the time to get to it.

Will do in this evening's MM.

Touched on yen today, this evening's wrap and noted monetary policy there (lower/higher rate and currency action).

Good job on your part. Oil/euro tie I've mentioned several times in recent months.

What trader email is alerting us to is Euro down tends to find oil down. Euro up tends to find oil up.

Now, "most" will look for ECB to cut rates, thus "most" will look for euro to weaken.

UNLESS, that's already been factored in.

So, let's be alert out there!

Could ALSO impact gold, silver, commodities in general. Remember, they're all PRICED in US$.

Tab Gilles : 11/5/2008 7:16:17 PM

Open Positions:

Well as I suspected the election provided the catalyst for a rally..however it also provided the market to comeback to reality. I'd expected a selloff on late Thursday into Friday on the Employment Report. But they just couldn't wait as the ADP, mortgage data and Speaker Pelosi all contributed to the selling. To add salt to the wound, Cisco reported after the close and it wasn't pretty.

The two open positions - call spread trades- Apple and the 1/3 position on the SPY, both took it on the chin today. I'd set the stops at their respective 21-ma, which are $100 om AAPL and $94 on SPY. Looks like that may occur on the open tomorrow.

AAPL Call Spread QAA-LC $4.55 Bid / QAA-LD $3.35 Ask = $1.20 - CB $2.20 or -$1.00 net (45%) Link

SPY Call spread SWG-LQ $6.65 Bid / SWG-LV Ask $4.75 = $2.50 - CB $2.80 or -$0.30 (10.7%) Link

Keene Little : 11/5/2008 4:17:35 PM

Poor President-elect Obama. The market gave him the Bronx cheer today. But in reality we remain in a very large consolidation pattern with only the potential so far for a move down to new lows by mid November. I'm hoping that's what we get because then we'd have a good setup for a multi-month rally into the new year. Unfortunately it will be another big choppy consolidation kind of move that might only make it back up to SPX 1000. Still, that would be about a 230-point gain if we see a bottom around 770. Ride it down and then ride it right back up again and then ride it back down again. It could be a wild roller coaster ride over the next 6 months. Got your trading shoes laced on nice and tight?

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 4:15:11 PM

QQQQ finished $31.95 -5.33% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 4:14:53 PM

CSCO's WKLY Pivot $17.51

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 4:14:22 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $17.39 -5.12% ... edges up at $17.55 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 4:12:04 PM

Anemic volume at the NASDAQ ... 1.88B churn

Keene Little : 11/5/2008 4:04:18 PM

I'm not seeing bullish divergences at this afternoon's lows and that brings into question my expectation for a bounce. Surprises will be to the downside and it's why I continue to like the short side of this market.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 4:03:32 PM

HMO.X 980.06 -1.32% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 4:03:10 PM

CI $17.15 -4.77%
HUM $36.00 +7.33%
AET $23.93 -2.20%
UNH $22.77 -0.21%

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 4:02:00 PM

VIX.X 55.53

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 4:01:43 PM

SPX 950

Keene Little : 11/5/2008 4:00:25 PM

At this point I think it's clear we had a buy the rumor, sell the news setup heading into the election. Which begs the question--was the outcome really a surprise? Normally with the S&P 500 off more than 5% you would have to answer yes. Lately it's just part of the normal volatility.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 3:58:07 PM

Remember that DIA bull trade from 10/28/08

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 3:56:20 PM

FXY 101.15 +1.27% ... has seen trade at its MNTHLY Pivot (101.20)

Has not traded its WKLY S1 or pivot.

Keene Little : 11/5/2008 3:47:12 PM

SPX nailed its downside Fib projection target at 954 (for equality between the 1st and 5th waves down). The 5th wave can always extend but this would be a logical place to start a bounce to correct today's decline (into tomorrow). If no bounce into the close then a drop to the 38% retracement at 945 should be next.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 3:43:55 PM

PHM alert! $10.75 -4.78% ...

Keene Little : 11/5/2008 3:36:03 PM

If we get a bounce off the SPX 960 level, and again looking at the 30-min chart, you can envision a right shoulder with a bounce tomorrow. The head & shoulder neckline would be at 960 and that would give a pattern projection down to about 913 (47 points from 960).

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 3:35:09 PM

See Shirakawa's speech from this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 3:33:40 PM

Anyone looked at the VIX.X and FXY lately?

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 3:32:03 PM

FXE $129.50 -0.45%

FXB 159.04 -0.44% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 3:31:39 PM

FXY $100.96 +1.08% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 3:31:21 PM

PHF $5.15 -0.38% ... slips red.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 3:30:37 PM

VIX.X 53.84 +12.80% .... DAILY R2 54.08. So a bit "lagging."

SPX 963.19 -4.23% ...

Keene Little : 11/5/2008 3:29:36 PM

On the SPX 30-min chart that I posted earlier (3:00 PM) you can see that the 100/130 moving averages are located at 955-958 so just above the Fib projection down to 954. This makes for a good support level for an end to today's decline. If no support, look out below.

Keene Little : 11/5/2008 3:21:16 PM

We didn't get much of a bounce before heading lower again and that raises the possibility that the 2:30 bounce was only the completion of the 4th wave correction. In that case I've got a downside target for SPX near 954 before we see the larger bounce back up tomorrow. It's getting a little whippy and unclear so stay clear of new entries.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 3:13:43 PM

OK ... need to get started on the Wrap. See you tonight!

Keene Little : 11/5/2008 3:24:32 PM

For a daily perspective, if SPX closes near the current level it will leave a tweezer top candle pattern (large up candle followed by a near equal down candle). MACD has made it back up to the zero line and if it turns back down from here it will be a strong sell signal. RSI has not made it up to the 50 line yet which is considered bearish: Link

On a different daily chart where I watch stochastics notice that it has completely relieved the oversold condition from October 10th and is now overbought: Link . A cross back down, which would have MACD curling back over as well, would be a good sell signal. It's a tad early to make a trading decision based on these but definitely worth watching for confirmation, or not.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 3:11:42 PM

Takes a computer

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 3:11:24 PM

Hmmmmm ... some of today's internals measures sure seem "identicle" ... MNTHLY Pivot?

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 3:11:00 PM

NASDAQ a/d 686/2,130

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 3:10:47 PM

NYSE a/d 650/2,246

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 3:10:04 PM

Then you can play the game of ... The trader that shorted Monday afternoon, what's he/she doing?

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 3:09:01 PM

YM 10-minute interval chart ... Link

Note the low and why its a wise thing to use PIVOT retracement. Divide those levels. The reason I use pivot retracement is years of trading. Used to wonder "why did it stop shy of a pivot level?" Slapped on a retracement and found out.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 3:00:41 PM

Miners also a bit of an "election" play. Democrat president, however Republicans (not that they haven't been spenders last couple of years) did hold enough seats for filabuster last night.

Keene Little : 11/5/2008 3:00:30 PM

Once the bounce completes, assuming it will continue into tomorrow morning, we should get another leg down following the bounce. If we assume for the moment that SPX finds resistance at 50% (987.80) and then make a projection from there for another leg down equal to today's we get a downside target near 948. A 38% retracement of the rally from October 28th to yesterday's high is near 945. So it's a bit early but I'm thinking for now that the 945-948 area makes for a good downside target tomorrow, shown in dark red on the 30-min chart: Link

If something more bearish has started then we could see the lower Fib projection near 924 achieved on the 2nd leg down. Notice that's also close to the post-FOMC selloff on last Wednesday. One leg at a time while trying to get some clues about the larger pattern (especially since we could still be stuck in a large sideways triangle pattern that will play out through November.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 2:58:50 PM

Shoot, forgot to turn on SLV's WKLY Pivot Levels. R1 right here at $10.30.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 2:58:04 PM

CDE and SLV 10-minute intervals Link

Tab Gilles : 11/5/2008 2:48:36 PM

Weekly EIA Report Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 2:47:30 PM

Round and round you go

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 2:47:21 PM

VIX.X 52.43

SPX 974.62

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 2:45:46 PM

CLOSING out the HUM-WE was kind of a 50/50 proposition. $0.40/contract reward still left, but WHAT IF they all gapped lower in response to Obama win?

IF HUM had gapped lower today, maybe could have sold the HUM-WE again for $1.10?

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 2:43:07 PM

On a 200-pd SMA, which is strongest/weakest?

On a 150-pd SMA, which is strongest/weakest?

50-pd, 21-pd

Within the WEEKLY which is strongest/weakest. Daily strongest/weakest.

Within retracement stongest/weakest (we've done this, but have the order)

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 2:40:44 PM

Follow the various SMA's too. Tie with SPX and even the VIX.

What's the SAME and what is the DIFFERENCE.

Keene Little : 11/5/2008 2:40:24 PM

The bounce to correct today's decline looks to be starting now. If so, a 50%-62% retracement of today's decline would take SPX back up to 987.80-992.45. The lower number, the 50% retracement, crosses the broken uptrend line from last Wednesday tomorrow morning around 10:30 AM. So for now that makes a good upside target to watch for. The higher number would be a retest of the broken uptrend line around mid day tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 2:39:23 PM

CI, HUM, AET, UNH 10-minute charts, same as earlier, QCharts daily/weekly turned on Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 2:32:01 PM

PHM $10.87 -3.80% ... just the opposite of what we did here.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 2:31:33 PM

If short, lower your stop and protect a gain.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 2:30:56 PM

Whatch'a gonn'a do at DAILY S2?

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 2:30:28 PM

SPX's 10-minute interval chart. Same as daily interval from earlier, but turn on QCharts' WKLY and Daily Pivot Levels Link

Keene Little : 11/5/2008 2:29:49 PM

Chopping lower in a small descending wedge could mean it's about ready to find a bottom so lower your stop to trail this move down if you're looking to take profits on a day-trade short.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 2:24:56 PM

VIX 10-minute interval chart. Same as daily interval from earlier, but turn on QCharts' WKLY and Daily Pivot Levels. Link

That "pop" higher came from 12:30-40 PM ET

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 2:17:25 PM

Qrtrly, Mnthly, Wkly, Daily ... Daily should be "calibrated" better. Shorter-term time frame. WKLY next, then Monthly, then Quarterly.

Remember the SEC short prohibition may have REALLY messed up the quarterly VIX.X and SPX relationship as QR2=QS2

More like QR1=QS2

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 2:13:48 PM

VIX.X 53.04 +11.12% ... its DAILY R2 54.08

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 2:13:24 PM

SPX set to test its DAILY S2 (967.78)

Keene Little : 11/5/2008 2:11:31 PM

OK, looks like we're now into the 5th wave down. Day traders can look to protect profits now. I think we could see SPX find support near 960 although it might be higher. Again, yesterday's gap gets closed at 966.31. Position traders (short from yesterday or this morning) need to decide whether or not they want to live through a bounce back up that retraces some Fib portion of today's decline. The risk of course is that we'll see a new rally leg above yesterday's high but right now that's looking like the lower probability move.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 2:10:02 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 2:07:02 PM

NYSE NH/NL 3:58

NASDAQ NH/NL 3:58

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 1:47:55 PM

PHF $5.24 +1.35% ... our "junk bond" holding green.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 1:47:30 PM

All equity-based indices/sectors now red.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 1:46:11 PM

SPX daily intervals with Quarterly pivot retracement (green) and Monthly pivot levels (just M S1, M Pivot and M R1). Be reasonable for now. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 1:40:17 PM

I'm going to show you SPX (what you might actually be trading) with QRTRLY and MONTHLY

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 1:39:33 PM

One could also show my 01:33:03 with RVX.X, VXN.X, VXD, VXO

Tab Gilles : 11/5/2008 1:38:12 PM

$VIX 52.70 +4.97 Link

$VXO 51.81 +3.84 Link

$VXD 48.32 +1.90 Link

$VXN 53.46 +2.22 Link

$RVX 57.50 +1.63 Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 1:33:03 PM

VIX daily intervals just captured. QRTRLY Pivot retracement (green) and October's Monthly Pivot Levels Link

As VIX was "plunging" this morning, what did it "undercut" and then reverse from?

Keene Little : 11/5/2008 1:23:36 PM

What the market does from here will start to provide some clues as to what to expect over the next day or two. The move down from yesterday's late-day high is only a 3-wave move so far (therefore fits as just a corrective pullback). If price consolidates a bit (maybe another hour) it would fit as a 4th wave correction in the move down from yesterday. That would be followed by another drop lower in a 5th wave.

A 5-wave move like that would then be followed by a bounce to correct the leg down from yesterday but it would require at least one more 5-wave move down to follow it. We'd get some downside targets for the 2nd 5-wave move down and start to watch for potential support again. But a rally back up from here, above today's high near 11:00 AM would leave the pullback as just a correction and I'd be looking for higher from there.

So far the indications are that we're going to get a small 4th wave correction near today's low and then drop lower this afternoon. If that picture starts to change I'll post it immediately. For the more bearish wave count we should not see the bounce get back above this morning's low right after the open.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 1:19:44 PM

But a human will observe, make the ties...

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 1:19:07 PM

How humans could do any of this is beyond me. (wink)

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 1:17:42 PM

VIX.X 52.03 +9.00% ... trades its QUARTERLY R1 right here.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 1:16:57 PM

Check out you 21-day SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 1:16:23 PM

Yesterday I observed FXY at its Q R2, SPX was flip-floppy at its Q S2. Institutional computers may be in play on this. How about the MNTHLY or WKLY?

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 1:14:05 PM

FXY $100.77 +0.89% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 1:13:25 PM

HMO.X 992.94 -0.02% ... inches red.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 1:12:36 PM

CI $17.73 -1.55%
HUM $36.53 +8.84%
AET $24.61 +0.57%
UNH $22.89 +0.30%
SPX 975.86 -2.97%

DJUSHB $243.85 +0.17% ... check out your 5-dayNet%

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 1:10:22 PM

What do you think?

Obama-related?
Profit Taking?


Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 1:08:56 PM

Trade Blotter of CLOSED and OPEN/active profiles that I (Jeff Bailey) have made at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/5/2008 12:59:37 PM

This was also one of those days when we should have taken note of the TRIN, it has been well above 1.00 all day.

Jane Fox : 11/5/2008 12:56:20 PM

This is one of those days when the VIX follows the S&P futures. It happens, not a lot but enough to make one realize that there are no guarantees in this game called the stock market. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 12:46:16 PM

That brings it all together, concludes PHM.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 12:45:38 PM

PHM 5-minute with today's upper 5-mrt and dynamic thrown on Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 12:39:45 PM

DJUSHB 243.85 +0.17% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 12:37:56 PM

Bullish swing trade stop alert! for shares of Pulte Home (PHM) $11.50 +1.77% ...

Keene Little : 11/5/2008 12:34:04 PM

If the decline continues, the 2nd leg down will equal 162% of the 1st leg down (which was the leg down from yesterday's high near the close to this morning's low right after the open) at 963.50. Just below that is the potential shelf support near 960 (Monday's lows).

Keene Little : 11/5/2008 12:31:50 PM

Two equal legs down from this yestterday afternoon's high for SPX is at 977.63. So far the pullback is only a 3-wave move so if it finds support around that level (which is slightly below its uptrend line from last Wednesday) it could head right back up again. For this reason, if you're short, lower your stop to just above this morning's high now.

Jane Fox : 11/5/2008 12:26:43 PM

The S&P futures made a new daily low but the VIX did not make a new daily high telling me those lows will not hold. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 12:20:25 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Keene Little : 11/5/2008 12:18:44 PM

Here's the test for NDX, tagging 1340 now.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 12:17:13 PM

PHM 10-minute interval with DAILY/WKLY Pivots turned on. Link

See why I'm moving stop higher. Trying to manage risk.

Tab Gilles : 11/5/2008 12:11:49 PM

Mid-day Update Open Position

SPY $98.65 -$1.65

Call Spread SWGLQ 8.25/8.35 ; SWGLV 5.15/5.20 net $3.00 -$2.80 +$0.20 (7.14%) Link

APPLE (AAPL) $107 .63 -$3.34

QAALC 6.00/6.10; QAALD 4.30/4.35 ; net $1.65 - $2.20 -$0.55 (25%)

Keene Little : 11/5/2008 12:11:28 PM

The uptrend lines from last Wednesday are now at SPX 979 and NDX 1340. NDX would close Tuesday's gap up at 1333.63. SPX needs to drop even further to close its gap at 966.31. In both cases NDX will hit potential support before SPX so keep an eye on that index for some clues as to what's next.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 12:02:09 PM

Should observe and HMO.X ... just like PHM and DJUSHB.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 12:01:38 PM

CI, HUM, AET, UNH daily intervals Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 11:55:43 AM

SPX 985.28 -2.03% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 11:55:24 AM

DJUSHB 253.31 +4.04%, HMO.X 1006.62 +1.35% ... only equity-based green in Market Watch.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 11:53:40 AM

DJUSHB 253.31 +4.05% ... daily interval. Nested retracement. PINK is "similar" to range with PHM. Noting WKLY R1 here too. Link

Keene Little : 11/5/2008 11:51:11 AM

NDX is leading to the downside and the bearish signals continue.

Tab Gilles : 11/5/2008 11:39:10 AM

3 month Libor Rate 2.51%

3 month T-Bill Rate 0.45%

TED Spread 2.06

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 11:37:19 AM

PHM $11.65 +3.09% ... daily interval. Same chart as last week's Wrap, show conventional (pink) Link

Tab Gilles : 11/5/2008 11:25:56 AM

$VIX 47.23 -0.50

$VXO 48.70 +0.73

$VXD 45.72 -0.70

$VXN 50.45 -0.80

$RVX 55.07 -0.80

Tab Gilles : 11/5/2008 11:22:25 AM

$WTIC $66.50; $NATGAS $7.26

Power Shares Crude Oil Double Short (DTO) $70.70 +$7.01 (11%)

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $24.70 +$1.76 (7.17%)

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 11:10:00 AM

USO $55.52 -3.24%
UGA $30.58 -1.35%

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 11:02:17 AM

Swing trade long raise stop alert! ... for Pulte Homes (PHM) $11.80 +4.42% ... to $11.50 (from $10.75).

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 10:59:29 AM

EIA Inventory Data

Crude Oil stocks up 54K bbls to 311.93M bbls
Total Gasoline stocks up 1.12M bbls to 196.11M bbls
Conventional Gasoline stocks up 705K bbls to 93.89M bbls
Total Distillate stocks up 1.21M bbls to 127.84M bbls
ULS Diesel stocks down 686K bbls to 67.91M bbls
Jet Fuel stocks up 661K bbls to 36.65M bbls
Heating Oil stocks up 1.70M bbls to 40.45M bbls
SPR unchanged at 701.83M bbls

EIA Refinery Data

Gross Inputs down 12K bbls/day to 15.02M bbls/day
Crude Oil Inputs down 234K bbls/day to 14.62M bbls/day
Operable Capacity unch at 17.61M bbls/day
Pct. Utilization fell to 85.28% from prior week's 85.34%
My # Days Supply of Crude Oil edges down to 21.5 days supply from prior 21.7.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 10:50:21 AM

DJUSHB 250.00

PHM $11.57

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 10:49:00 AM

FXY $100.28 +0.40% ... backfills 1/2 of this morning's gap higher.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 10:42:15 AM

SPX 997.25 -0.84% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 10:42:00 AM

DJUSHB +1.58%, HMO.X +1.39%, XNG.X +0.98%

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 10:41:23 AM

VIX.X 47.54 -0.39% ... undercuts DAILY Pivot. Backfills all of morning gap higher.

Jane Fox : 11/5/2008 10:41:08 AM

U.S. gasoline supply up 1.1 mln brls: Energy Dept.

U.S. distillate supply up 1.2 mln brls: Energy Dept.

U.S. crude supply unchanged last week: Energy Dept.

Jane Fox : 11/5/2008 10:40:02 AM

The bulls have a lot territory to cover before the markets will even reach overnight highs. The AD line and ratio need to get on board before that will happen. Link

Jane Fox : 11/5/2008 10:35:43 AM

The VIX is plunging as the markets make new daily highs. AD line is still below 0 so it will not be a runaway train by any means.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 10:28:41 AM

DJUSHB +1.58%, XNG.X +1.25%, HMO.X +0.98%, RXH.X +0.37%, NWX.X +0.16%

Keene Little : 11/5/2008 10:27:48 AM

NDX's 30-min chart shows the same parallel up-channel as the DOW's. The bottom of the channel is currently near 1337. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 10:23:05 AM

CDE $0.69 -5.47% ... kept the alert on GG should CDE have been close to current target of $0.90.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 10:22:18 AM

GG $23.02 +3.78% alert! (see 10/23 MM target of $23.00)

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 10:19:23 AM

USO $56.41 -1.69% ...
UGA $30.58 -1.35% ... ahead of EIA

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 10:18:50 AM

UNG $31.20 +0.64% and SLV $10.28 +1.58% ... only commodities in Market Watch green

Keene Little : 11/5/2008 10:18:18 AM

The DOW's 30-min chart shows the parallel up-channel from last Wednesday's low and how it found support at the bottom of the channel this morning, currently near 9433: Link . It's in an uptrend for now so a short play is an attempt to catch the top of the bounce. That's why I want to keep the stop at a new high above yesterday's. A break below the up-channel should find the DOW heading for a potential support level around 9100-9200.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 10:18:03 AM

HMO.X +0.36% ... DJUSHB +0.21% ... RXH.X (unch)

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 10:17:22 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 10:15:02 AM

VIX.X 49.31 +3.31% ... backfills 1/2 of this morning's gap higher. Daily Pivot 47.58.

Jane Fox : 11/5/2008 10:18:09 AM

The TRIN is a whopping 1.54 but the VIX is making new daily lows. THese two in conflict like this tell me we will not get any definite trends and that the markets will be choppy until these two get more in line with one another.

Keene Little : 11/5/2008 10:03:34 AM

SPX made a quick stab lower this morning and broke yesterday afternoon's low. That should be the signal that we've got at least a larger pullback in front of us. The next line of defense (assuming it continues lower) will be the uptrend line from last Wednesday (the post-FOMC dip), currently sitting near 974.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 10:02:26 AM

DJUSHB 243.95 +0.21% ... only equity-based index in Market Watch currently green.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 10:01:55 AM

MBA (partial table) I track for helping trade the builders Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 9:55:50 AM

Pulte Home (PHM) $11.29 -0.08% ... have raise bullish stop to $11.75.

See last night's blotter Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 9:54:12 AM

My 4-week Avg. Purchases falls to 289.2; 12-week Avg. falls to 321.8.

Jane Fox : 11/5/2008 9:52:54 AM

I just read an article written by Rex Nutting of Marketwatch.com. Here is the last sentence. "But more than that, the millions of Americans who marched behind him (Obama) and the millions more who didn't will have to take Obama's message to heart. It is not Obama, or Biden, or Pelosi, or Reid, or McConnell or Palin who will change America; that is our task."

Jane Fox : 11/5/2008 9:41:34 AM

Today at 10:00ET we have the release of the ISM Non-manufacturing PMI and then the 10:35 Crude Oil Inventory report.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 9:38:51 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey Link

Jane Fox : 11/5/2008 9:38:44 AM

AD line is in bear's territory at -1451.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 9:32:45 AM

Shirakawa's Speech ... (.pdf file) Link

Jane Fox : 11/5/2008 9:31:28 AM

According to the October ADP employment report. the US Private sector lost 157,000 jobs. This report is a precursor to the nonfarm payroll report for October out on Friday and is suggesting the report will not be good news to those looking for work. The goods producing sector lost 126,000, manufacturing 85,000 and service producing 31,000.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 9:31:03 AM

Today's Global Econ. Calendar Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 9:30:26 AM

Yesterday's Global Econ. Calendar Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 9:28:25 AM

YM 5-minute from last night Link

Keene Little : 11/5/2008 9:26:16 AM

Equity futures sold off hard from the overnight high (sell the news?), recovered half of the selloff but then dropped back down again. We'll have a negative start to the day which could be the start of something bigger. Proof will be in the form of today's decline (if it continues). Use yesterday's high as your stop if you got short.

Jane Fox : 11/5/2008 9:25:49 AM

McCain gave a very elegant and gracious concession speech. I expected no less of him, an elegant and gracious person.

Jane Fox : 11/5/2008 9:22:34 AM

Most future events get built into the price of stocks and when they actually happen are a non-event. The final results of the election last night was one of those events. Link

Jane Fox : 11/5/2008 9:21:30 AM

I would like to say Congratulations to President Elect Obama and President Elect Biden. It was a long contest, too long, but it is over now so we can get down to the business of digging our way out of a sagging economy. I truly do hope those who didn't get their candidate of choice will at least give the new guy a chance. Let him prove to you he is not worthy of your respect before you disrespect him. We are all in this together and we need everyone pulling in one direction to put America back to where it used to be. That will be a long hard road but with the right leadership and the right support we can do it.

Keene Little : 11/5/2008 1:10:53 AM

Wednesday's pivot table: Link

The updated SPX daily chart shows the setup for a turn back down from Tuesday's high. Whether it gets a post-election bounce before turning back down or takes off to the upside instead can't be known but I liked the setup at the end of the day Tuesday for a short play. Assuming a pullback starts I'll be watching the form of it to help determine whether it will be just a pullback or something more bearish for a run down to a new low. Interestingly the Fib projection for a 5th wave to equal the 1st wave in the move down from May falls right at the October 2002 low of 768 (if it starts down immediately on Wednesday). Link

The same setup is shown on the DOW's daily chart and points to a downside Fib projection target at 7262 which is very close to the October 2002 low at 7197. If the market gets a little pop higher in the morning keep an eye on price action around the resistance level of 9700. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 11:45:46 PM

Reuters: Bush called Obama to congratulate him on election as president

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 11:26:10 PM

YI +$0.08, or +0.75% at $10.18

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 11:25:48 PM

YG -$7.60, or -0.99% at $755.10

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 11:24:33 PM

Dollar steady against most major currencies

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 11:22:54 PM

YM +5 @ 9,592

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 11:22:33 PM

FOX News: Senator McCain concedes election.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 11:10:42 PM

dj- CNN: Obama Projected To Be Elected US President

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 11:40:14 PM

(edited 11:06 PM EST)
YM ... off 1 at 9,586.

FOX News projecting Barack Obama as President of the United States of America.

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 10:33:13 PM

Asian Markets: $NIKK +2.82% @ 9,372. $HSI +6.44% @ 15,310. $SSEC +4.57% @ 1,785

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 10:15:08 PM

US President Race '08 Map (update 1) Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/4/2008 10:09:28 PM

YM ... up 23 @ 9,610 ... FOX News reporting Republicans likely to hold filibuster.

OI Technical Staff : 11/4/2008 9:59:59 PM

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