Option Investor
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 9:57:10 PM


Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 6:41:21 PM

Trade blotter of CLOSE and OPEN/active MM profiles that I've made at this Link

Edge down the CDE stop to $0.48.

GG-XX new.

VIX.X goes out 63.68.

Per trader request, went back and "b"enchmarked premiums at option entries.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 6:35:20 PM

Swing trade long adjust/lower stop alert! ... for Coeur D' Alene Mines (CDE) $0.58 -14.70% ... to $0.48 at this time.

Daily's $0.51, $0.54, Piv= $0.62, $0.65, $0.73.

Not that this, or any penny stock will have much institutional sponsorship, other than normal market making activity.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 6:19:26 PM

Personal PHF blotter since ~11/06/07 at Link and Link

As you know, I will buy and sell in partial positions.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 5:42:16 PM

PHF ... recent NAV (prem/discount) Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 5:40:29 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $5.12 -0.58% (our "junk bond" benchmark in US Market Watch) ... on 11/06/07 finished $8.99. Will have paid $0.90 ($0.075/month). SEC Yield on 11/06/07 was 10.01%.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 5:33:28 PM

Retail Gasoline Map Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 5:26:06 PM

Buy BONDS for dividends/interest ... not stocks! Buy stocks for growth!

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 5:14:24 PM

EIA Inventory: Crude Oil, Conv. Gasoline, Nat Gas, ULS Diesel, Jet Fuel, Heating Oil stockpile data Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 4:20:24 PM

Iran president urges Obama to change US policies ... Reuters Story Link

James Brown : 11/6/2008 4:21:13 PM

Ugh! I don't know about you guys but I'm so sick of hearing people on TV rave about high-dividend stocks. They're talking about how great a 5% or 7% annual yield is. I don't see the attraction when your stock is falling 5% a week. Somebody on Fast Money said it earlier this week, 2008 is the year that "buy and hold investing" died. How many years of dividends do you have to collect if your stock is down 20% or 40% for the year? (edit: If you're going to hold a losing stock I'd rather hold one that paid me a dividend!)

All right, I don't need any angry emails. I realize that dividends are pretty attractive if you're truly going to buy something and hold it for several years but for anyone who is actively managing their own money I think they could do better than just buy something and sit on it.

Anyone who bought and held* over the last ten years has lost money unless they bought the bottom in 2002-2003 and now those gains are at risk. Maybe you did okay if you were in a DRIP program or took your ten years of dividends and did something else with that cash.

See you tomorrow!

*I'm referring to the market as a whole.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 4:14:42 PM

SPX.X 904.88 -5.02% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 4:14:25 PM

HMO.X 936.25 -4.41% ... about "market perform" today.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 4:12:29 PM

Aetna (AET) $23.38 -2.25% ... new 52-week low close

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 4:12:04 PM

Cigna (CI) $15.35 -10.49% ... new 52-week low close.

James Brown : 11/6/2008 4:06:33 PM

Bob Pisani on CNBC saying that this might be the worst two days (-10%) for the DJIA and the S&P 500 since 1987.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 4:06:21 PM

YM 8,669

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 4:04:48 PM

GG finished $21.04 -8.12% ...

Jane Fox : 11/6/2008 4:03:59 PM

The international Energy Agency said import prices for Crude Oil will probably average $100/bl for the period between 2008 and 2015 then rise to $120 by 2030. This is a major upward adjustment over last year's outlook due to increased demand from China and India, which will account for more than 1/2 of the increase in the world's demand.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 4:03:51 PM

CDE $0.58 -14.70% ... how I do not know. Other than $0.05 below the WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 4:01:23 PM

Continue to monitor PHM ... 60-minute interval could develop inverse h/s. Left at $9.50. Head $7.50-ish. Neckline at yesterday's exit.

James Brown : 11/6/2008 4:01:03 PM

The market's reversal provided a nearly perfect failed rally at the top of BIDU's bearish channel. Options on BIDU can be pricey so entry point is even more important. Another failed rally or a breakdown under round-number support at $200.00 could be used as potential entries. The $180 level was support in October but the bearish trend suggest readers could target the $150 level. The P&F chart is still bullish but a move under $200 should produce a new sell signal. Here's a chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 3:58:50 PM

DWC alert! 10/22 close

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 3:58:32 PM

PHM $10.79 +1.21% ... per CNBC comments regarding homebuilders "hanging tough"

Keene Little : 11/6/2008 3:58:03 PM

SPX 882-883 is now less than 20 points away (not that big of a move in this market) so that could be the downside target before getting a bigger bounce.

James Brown : 11/6/2008 3:50:51 PM

After being added to the S&P 500 index this week, shares of J.M.Smuckers (SJM) have sunk past their summer lows near $40.00 support. The stock is down 4.9% to $39.93. Normally I would expect an oversold bounce from support but a close under $40.00 would be bearish. The stock is very short-term oversold.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 3:36:57 PM

BUD +0.89% ... to be acquired by Inbev

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 3:36:09 PM

SPX 910

FXY 102.11

VIX.X 62.84

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 3:32:57 PM

YM 15-minute interval montage ... without and with pivot retracment Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 3:25:13 PM

FXY 102.08

James Brown : 11/6/2008 3:24:05 PM

Japanese automaker Toyota Motor Corp. (TM) is having a rough day. The stock is down about 15.8% to $67.65 after reporting earnings. Actually what is driving the stock lower is TM's forecast.

TM has drastically lowered its profit forecast for the year-ending March 2009 to 550 billion yen, down from prior forecasts of 1,250 billion yen and significantly lower than last year's 1,720 billion yen profit.

The credit crisis in the U.S., the rising Yen, and the global economic slow down is hitting the company's sales in what management is calling an "unprecedented" situation.

Of course if you're a glass-is-half-full kind of person the key note here is TM is still making a profit compared to its U.S. rivals.

The economic environment is not going to improve very quickly so readers might want to keep TM on their list of possible bearish candidates should we see any oversold bounce roll over. I wouldn't chase it here but the $75.00 level was decent resistance in the past.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 3:24:03 PM

RXH -0.84% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 3:21:31 PM

NASDAQ a/d 762/2,084

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 3:21:20 PM

NYSE a/d 554/2,440

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 3:13:42 PM

RUT.X 501.20 -2.61% ... slips back under WKLY Pivot.

Keene Little : 11/6/2008 3:11:56 PM

We've now got confirmation of the corrective bounce. It could head lower directly from here or go into a larger consolidation pattern.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 3:10:32 PM

FXY 101.98 +0.4% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 3:07:26 PM

Note 150 and 200-pd SMA correlative with WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 3:06:02 PM

Not "hammer-like" bar on YM's 30-minute chart 01:30-02:00

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 3:05:13 PM

YM ... 8,751 ... will note afternoon low at QRTRLY 38.2%.

Begin tie with VXO.X

Keene Little : 11/6/2008 2:59:20 PM

So far the bounce is only a 3-wave correction and if prices drop back below the lows of last pullback at 2:30 PM it will be left as a 3-wave correction. We could see the correction turn into a larger consolidation pattern but it would be the first clue that lower prices are coming.

James Brown : 11/6/2008 2:57:04 PM

Moving from DLTR to the opposite side of the retail economic spectrum is high-end food retailer Whole Foods Market, Inc. (WFMI). The stock was up almost 19% this morning following the company's earnings report last night.

Given the economic climate this has got to be a very tough time for WFMI and it's only going to get worse. Management warned that 2009 would see the company miss prior earnings and revenue estimates. Same-store sales numbers were minus 0.4% versus +8.2% the same period last year. These same-store sales numbers were getting worse in just the last few weeks with readings in the -2.0% range.

The early morning spike was due to short covering on the news. The most recent data listed short interest at 18.5% of the 137.7 million-share float. The stock is still up 6.6% and has desperately been trying to hold the $10.00 level the last couple of weeks. If this post-earnings rally fails the next level of support looks like $8.00-7.50.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 2:55:40 PM

AET $24.08 +0.66% ... edges back green.

Keene Little : 11/6/2008 2:52:53 PM

As I mentioned before, it's possible we'll see a new rally leg get started and take us above Tuesday's high. I think that is a low probability scenario but it remains possible (shown in green on the 60-min chart below). If we get a larger bounce now that corrects the leg down from Tuesday I think it will then set up another leg down, shown in dark red: Link

What can't be known yet is whether the next leg down will find support around SPX 850 as part of the larger sideways triangle (pink) or just keep heading south to a low near 768 by the end of next week. There are Fibs, cycle studies and Gann pointing to the 768 level by mid month and as James reported earlier there are potential hedge fund redemption requests up until November 15th.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 2:52:04 PM

SPX's 120-pd at 939.34

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 2:51:06 PM

Check out that VIX action on 60-minute interval.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 2:48:42 PM

RXH.X 311.06 +0.02% ... inches back green.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 2:47:19 PM

AVP $25.73 +0.07% ... holding tough.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 2:45:56 PM

DIA $88.27

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 2:45:42 PM

WMT $53.98 -0.29% ... comes to WKLY Pivot $54.09

Keene Little : 11/6/2008 2:45:10 PM

Getting another leg up now. Two equal legs up from today's low is at SPX 922.07 which is last Wednesday's post-FOMC low.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 2:44:20 PM

vxo.x 65.75

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 2:44:00 PM

VIX.X 62.34

James Brown : 11/6/2008 2:43:58 PM

Consumers are definitely downgrading as they tighten their belts. Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR), one of the variety stores where everything is $1.00, pre-announced better than expected revenue numbers this morning.

The stock is up 8.3% to $38.56.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 2:43:37 PM

SPX 918 alert!

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 2:43:02 PM

Continue with fibs

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 2:42:43 PM

Per my 10/22/08 Wrap and cl08z Link ... will have to upate BVC.

James Brown : 11/6/2008 2:37:51 PM

Since I'm on the topic of double-short ETFs the EEV might be worth your notice. This is the UltraShort ETF on the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.

If you like volatility then this one is for you. This ETF saw not one but two $100 swings in the month of October. It's already up more than $25 from Tuesday's close. I'm not suggesting you buy it here but it might be worth watching for the more adventuresome traders.

Trading Idea: The EEV does have options. There is probably opportunity to here to work on some sort of spread to take advantage of the volatility.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 2:34:08 PM

Bear Vert count in USO would at least suggest Q S2 in play. Unleass there's a MNTHLY in the way. WKLY S2 at $47.94.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 2:33:08 PM

I had not yet derived new MONTHLY for you.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 2:32:54 PM

USO ... as you know, Q S2 at $45.17

James Brown : 11/6/2008 2:31:27 PM

Trading Idea: If you look at the Chinese ETF the FXI the trend is lower. Traders might be tempted to target a move toward $20.00.

Another alternative is the FXP. This is the UltraShort FTSE/Xinhau China 25 ProShares. This double-short moves higher as the FTSE/China index moves lower.

Then again with so much volatility your stomach may prefer the FXI instead.

Keene Little : 11/6/2008 2:30:35 PM

SPX is essentially holding at its 62% retracement near 907. If it consolidates at this level then we can expect another leg down, perhaps to the 882 support level.

James Brown : 11/6/2008 2:25:45 PM

Financial stocks were some of the worst performers yesterday and the banking indices are all down another 4.5% to 5% today.

One of the biggest winners today is the UltraShort Financials ETF the SKF. This ETF moves up as the financial sector moves down.

The SKF is up more than 10% to $141.23 and up sharply in just the last two days. This is an extremely volatile ETF to trade.

Another financial ETF that isn't quite so volatile is the UYG. This is the double-long but obviously moves just as fast to the downside. The UYG is down 10.4% to $8.39.

Another financial ETF is the IYF, which has a more "normal" level of volatility. The IYF is only down 5% to $49.46.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 2:18:51 PM

$58.50 - ((18 x 2) x 0.50)= $40.50 ...

James Brown : 11/6/2008 2:18:14 PM

It's been said before but CNBC just recently reminded us the deadline to submit redemptions to hedge funds for the year end is November 15th.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 2:15:28 PM

USO $50.88 -5.49% ... $0.50 box to match futures Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 2:13:46 PM

EXCELLENT, EXCELLENT observation James!

What is the new bearish vertical count? Does it "jive" with the FXY?

James Brown : 11/6/2008 2:08:13 PM

Jeff has already commented on the move in the Oil ETF (USO). I find it pretty interesting that in just the last three sessions the USO's point & figure chart has turned from a brand new triple-top breakout buy signal into a triple-bottom breakdown sell signal. The P&F chart is now projecting a $41.00 target for the USO.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 2:06:57 PM

Is it an overlap?

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 2:06:48 PM

Not certain where VXO.X Q R2 is at.

Keene Little : 11/6/2008 2:06:42 PM

Getting a little stronger bounce. I'll be watching for evidence of it being just a correction or the start of something bigger.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 2:06:35 PM

VIX.X ... observation ... QR2 enough to keep from WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 2:03:53 PM

DIA $87.61 -4.61% ...

OEX.X 435.57 -4.36% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 2:03:24 PM

VXo.X 67.85 +23.09% ... testing QCharts WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 2:01:11 PM

after yesterday's "plunge" to daily pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 2:00:36 PM

VIX.X alert! 64.22 +17.70% ... has "surged" to QRTLY S2

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:58:19 PM

"extreme" and "plunge" are anectdotal (as you've seen).

The PIVOT levels place in more quantitative.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:56:54 PM

Due to "extreme" volatility, subscriber has asked that I add a benchmark VIX.X to all trades.

EXCELLENT addition in my opinion as some of us have noted volatility impact on options. Will go back at UNE-AJ, HUM-MF, AVP-XX and UHB-XW trades to capture.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:55:13 PM

Blotter of CLOSED and OPEN/active trade profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:52:37 PM

GG-XX trade target/stop alert! ... target will be $18.00, stop $25.00 in underlying.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:48:06 PM

even as AVP $25.74 +0.07% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:47:46 PM

Today's VIX.X looks to have added $0.10 to the bid of AVP-XX

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:42:06 PM

UNH ... then adding downward trend from the retracement marked 08/18 high to the 10/21 high.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:40:57 PM

UNH ... adding an upward trend from the 10/09/08 low (not the potential "climax low" and then attaching that upward trend to the 10/28/08 higher low.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:39:38 PM

UNH's daily interval MACD rather flat, still below 0.00. Still above signal.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:38:09 PM

HUM $35.00 -2.80% ... session low looks on top still.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:37:46 PM

UNH $22.23 -2.37% ... has slipped under its 21-day SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:35:38 PM

CDE $0.60 -11.76% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:35:07 PM

GG $21.31 -6.94% ...

Jane Fox : 11/6/2008 1:34:23 PM

The Democrats still have a chance at a filibuster majority although that chance is getting slimmer and slimmer each day. Democrats need exactly 60 seats for the golden prize and they only have 55. There are at least 5 contests up for grab so it is possible but not likely.

I for one hope they do not. A major is one thing but to have a majority that strong is not the way I want my government to be run.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:34:00 PM

RLX.X 271.37 -4.19% ... has fallen below its WKLY Pivot. WKLY S1 259.29 is same as last week's WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:32:13 PM

AVP $25.80 +0.31% ... holding tough.

Keene Little : 11/6/2008 1:29:45 PM

Some bullish divergences are building at the new lows so tighten your stops if short and wanting to protect profits. While I think we're due a bounce I believe we'll then head lower again into next week. But the risk now is that the current pullback (albeit a sharp one) is just a correction to the rally off the October 28th low and that we'll see another rally leg get started. Certainly it's a good time to protect any profits in November puts.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2008 1:28:14 PM

Several Democrats said John Kerry hopes to be Obama's secretary of state, but a Kerry spokeswoman strongly denied it.

Leading Obama's transition team is John Podesta, who was President Bill Clinton's chief of staff.

Obama's staff said the president-elect would address the media by the end of the week, but Cabinet announcements were not planned that soon.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:27:34 PM

INDU components (weighted at 11/03/08 open) Link

Qcharts users can "left click" on LAST for close to current weightings. This is PRICE weighted index.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:25:22 PM

DJ- Paulson: ... "looking forward to working with Obama's team."

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:23:19 PM

ZION $36.15 -8.17% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:22:56 PM

PNC $69.38 +1.52% ... at 38.2% of 07/15 low close to 09/19 high close.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2008 1:20:42 PM

Officials say Rep. Rahm Emanuel of Illinois has agreed to be Barack Obama's White House chief of staff.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:16:04 PM

Remember! DIA just 30 stocks. 28 are listed; 2 are NASDAQ.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:14:32 PM

AMEX is 3/45

BB is 0:147 for those that have to thow in all on a composite NH/NL benchmark each day.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:13:29 PM

NASDAQ NH/NL running 4:126

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:13:15 PM

NYSE NH/NL running 7:139 here ... again, those that have followed my commentary over last couple of months, we may have some "inverse" funds at the NH, but were measuring the "tail" or the NL on the weakness.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:11:41 PM

DWC alert! trades 10/15 close

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:11:22 PM

SPX Heavyweights (weighted at 11/03/08 open) with Live trade here Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:07:45 PM

BIX.X would at least suggest SPX WKLY S1 in play.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:07:20 PM

SPX 913.30 -4.14% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:07:16 PM

OK ... VIX.X 63.22 +15.87% ... nearing Q R2.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:07:07 PM

OK ... BIX.X 155.00 -4.48% ... TRADED WEEKLY S1 (155.45), now comes back up for a look.

See VIX.X action this morning as noted.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2008 1:05:07 PM

With the TRIN at 2.30 I would be hesitant to go short but with the VIX hovering at daily highs I certainly wouldn't try a countertrend trade and go long.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:04:23 PM

XTC.X 574.26 -3.04% ... ABOVE WKLY Pivot 554.05.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:03:29 PM

DDX.X 54.65 -4.44% ... just slipped under WKLY Pivot 55.10

Keene Little : 11/6/2008 1:03:07 PM

A 62% retracement of the rally from October 28th is at SPX 907.25. But I didn't see much hesitation in the selling at either the 38% (945.53) or 50% (926.39) so keep an eye on that 907 area but essentially there's a lot of empty space between last Wednesday's post-FOMC low near 922 andthe October 28th low at 845.

One other support level I'll be eyeing, although I didn't think I'd see it tested in only 2 days (from Tuesday's high), is at 882-883 which is the next level on the Gann Square of Nine chart that is one cycle around from 1005 (and the October 2002 low at 768), as shown on this section of the chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:02:51 PM

OK ... SMH $18.79 -4.95% ... QC's WKLY S1 $18.63 ... SMH session low so far $18.68.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:02:02 PM

XCI.X 564.17 -4.35% ... WKLY S1 nearing at 555.33

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:01:32 PM

BTK.X 649.73 -1.77% .... ABOVE its wkly pivot 641.84

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 1:00:58 PM

Clicking down through my US Market Watch with the WKLY Pivot levels turned on. RUT.X juuuust slipping below its WKLY Pivot last 90-minutes. Not as notable decline below as other majors.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 12:57:09 PM

USO "gapped below" a similar type of trend this morning. WKLY S1 cut like hot knife and butter at this morning's open. As if it were not there. Suggest no institutional computer buying.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 12:55:40 PM

Would also suggest a FXE or oil trader have a near-term upward trend on FXE from 10/27 low to 11/03 higher low.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 12:54:11 PM

FXE 127.50 -1.25% ... juuuuuuust under QCharts WKLY Pivot 127.51. Has backfilled 1/2 of 11/03-11/04 gap higher.

Keene Little : 11/6/2008 12:49:04 PM

I'm back and I see it's been a steady bleed all morning. It's rather bearish obviously--no real bounce and that makes it hard to figure out where in the pattern we might be (as far as figuring out where the leg down from Tuesday might end.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 12:47:39 PM

Have a +$169.00 so far for the month (ex-commission schedule).

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 12:46:29 PM

Now .... I've also "balanced" or got our/my MM account weighted more BEARISH (per OPEN/active positions) and will monitor should we get the trade setup from last night's wrap.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2008 12:44:56 PM

Internals are still as bearish as ever. I see nothing that would convince me to go long here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 12:44:04 PM

What I did WRONG on 10/28 in my opinion was this ...

I bought an intra-day steep decline, and could have more easily let the market trade the level, even below the level, then buy the STRENGTH back above.

What I did correct (in my opinion) was DECREASE the trade size to 1/4 (from initial thought of 1/2).

What I also may have "done wrong" was not round up to 1/2 as strength built.

However, like many, even those that couldn't pull a bullish trigger that day, the eventual day's gain was "unbelievable."

Jane Fox : 11/6/2008 12:42:47 PM

Reports from the BBC sited a study done in 2006 by Jeremy Siegel, a professor of finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, which shows that from 1948 to 2006 stock market returns averaged 15.3% a year under Democratic administrations, and just 9.5% a year under the Republicans.

This report supports a recent study published in the New York Times that sited $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 Index in 1929 would have grown to $11,733 if invested under Republican presidents, but to $300,671 under Democratic presidents.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 12:40:01 PM

This would decide if we take a trade on SPX test of WKLY S1. We should KNOW what to look for internally.

DIA traders know what to look for per trade action of 10/28.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 12:37:55 PM

NYSE a/d 505/2,402

NASDAQ a/d 640/2,065

More important in my opinion is what's going on at the "tail" and new lows of NYSE and NASDAQ as it would relate to benchmarks.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 12:36:06 PM

DWC alert! probes 10/09 close.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 12:35:43 PM

Wilshire 5000 (DWC) 9,187 -4.12% ... falling as similar to 10/09 , 10/15 and 10/22 closes

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 12:32:11 PM

10/09 closing internals Link

10/15 Link

10/22 Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 12:22:52 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 12:19:59 PM

GG $21.83 -4.67% ... with WKLY R1 $21.53

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 12:18:45 PM

CDE $0.62 -8.82% ... session low has been $0.58. Edges a penny back above WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 12:18:01 PM

GLD $72.08

SLV $9.96

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 12:07:44 PM

SPX 919.95 -3.44% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 12:07:20 PM

10-year yield sitting on WKLY S1 at 3.744% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:58:34 AM

Keeping same retracement on GG and HUI.X and GLD as prior postings.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:57:58 AM

GG $21.75 -5.02% ... I typed % loss incorrect at 11:29:08

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:50:44 AM

AHT $2.14 +3.38% ... 10/31 close was $1.62.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:50:05 AM

GKK $1.76 -12.00% ... 10/31 close was $2.66.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:48:32 AM

PNSN $6.75 -3.57% ... 10/31 52-week low was $6.58

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:47:47 AM

PWAV $0.72 -8.86% ... new 52-weeker

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:47:18 AM

Ooops! ... how about this then ... Link

3rd from top

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:45:57 AM

It was in % loser that day ... Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:44:58 AM

Can't remember if I noted on 10/31 the BARE gap lower.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:44:27 AM

Avon Products (AVP) $25.24 -1.86% ... yesterday's action did backfill about 7/8 of 10/29 to 10/30 gap lower.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:42:51 AM

Bare Escentuals (BARE) $4.83 -1.22% ... prairie dogged its WKLY Pivot at the open. Slips back below.

Tab Gilles : 11/6/2008 11:37:19 AM

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has hired a former Bear Stearns risk assessor to help with bank supervision.

Link to news report... Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:32:54 AM

HUI.X 200.33 -6.22% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:31:48 AM

YG $732.20 -1.26% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:31:27 AM

GLD $72.17 -0.86% ... ~721.70 spot

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:29:35 AM

VIX.X 60.41 +10.72% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:29:08 AM

Swing trade put alert! ... for one (1) of the Gold Corp GG Dec $22.50 Put (GG-XX) at the offer of $3.60.

GG $21.39 -1.51% ...

Tab Gilles : 11/6/2008 11:28:39 AM

3 month Libor Rates 2.39%; 3 month T-Bill 0.36% ; TED Spread 2.03%

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:22:42 AM

CDE $0.60 -11.76% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:22:27 AM

SLV $10.14 -0.68% ... has reversed gains from $10.67

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:21:18 AM

SPX 926.20 -2.78% ... 10/31 close was higher at 968.75.

Analysis ... VIX.X a lagging indicator related to PRICE of SPX.

However, we know for fact (based on basics of VIX.X) we are seeing greater number of put buyers/call seller than put sellers/call buyer. PREMIUMS of options also rising.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:19:28 AM

VIX also at 10/31 close.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:17:41 AM

Suggests premium sellers exhausted, then become buyer.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:17:09 AM

VIX.X 59.70 +9.42% ... check out action, even on 5-minute interval at your MONTHLY Pivot. Note once above, now finding support on back test.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:15:52 AM

Equities come under pressure ...

Tab Gilles : 11/6/2008 11:12:46 AM

NYSE - New 52 Week Lows & New Highs, using a daily chart W/10-ema

$NYLOW: Link

$NYHGH: Link


Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:11:23 AM

RXH may actually be a "pro Obama" group. President Elect Obama believes healthcare is a RIGHT of every American.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:09:43 AM

Health Providers (RXH.X) 312.57 +0.51% ... sector winner. Falling 21-day SMA 313.77

Components Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:07:02 AM

Airline Index (XAL.X) 24.00 +0.62% ... sector winner. Trying to round-out 200-day SMA right here.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:05:51 AM

FXY $101.63 +0.05% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:05:12 AM

FXE $127.89 -0.95%

USO $50.54 -6.12% ...

5-day% ... +0.10% : -9.26%

20-day% -4.57% : -15.09%

YRNet% -12.33% : -33.19%

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:03:09 AM

Still hearing a little bit too much "oil down is good."

I would think that is for CONSUMER, but not necessarily equity market direction, even outside of energy complex.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:01:01 AM

UNH's 10/30/08 Close was $22.39. ... not yet tested this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 11:00:07 AM

HUM's 10/30/08 close was $29.68

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 10:59:18 AM

AET's 10/30/08 close was $25.94 and our 19.1% conventional.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 10:57:47 AM

AET $23.73 -0.79%
HUM $35.34 -1.30%
UNH $22.63 -0.61%

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 10:57:08 AM

Cigna (CI) $15.56 -9.27% ... probes its 52-week LOW CLOSE of 10/30/08.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 10:56:00 AM

Forex Pivot Point Calculator Link

Most institutional computers use the FLOOR pivot points.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 10:51:53 AM

I simply don't have the time, or energy to tabulate VXO.X, VXD, VXN and RVX monthly/quarterly.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 10:50:45 AM

SPX 931.12 -2.27% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 10:50:41 AM

VIX.x 59.09 +8.30% ... probes M Pivot from below.

Tab Gilles : 11/6/2008 10:49:24 AM

$VIX 59.12 +4.52

$VXO 61.57 +6.45

$VXD 53.38 +3.70

$VXN 59.37 +4.14

$RVX 62.63 +3.23

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 10:47:48 AM

CI $15.66 -8.68%
AET $23.67 -1.04%
HUM $35.57 -1.22%
UNH $22.66 -0.48% ...

Have reranked Weakest to Strongest.

Not overly comfortable with HUM and UNH pair. MUST continue to see weakes lead to downside.

Tab Gilles : 11/6/2008 10:47:30 AM

SMN- Proshares Ultra Short Basic Materials $77.96 +$6.75 (9.7%)

DTO- Powershares Double Crude Oil Short $81.30 +$8.38 (11.5%)

DUG- Proshares UltraShort OIl & Gas $40.53 +$3.23 (8.615)

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 10:45:15 AM

Cigna (CI) $15.70 -8.45% ... retraces 38.2% of recent advance from 10/31 intra-day low.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 10:41:06 AM

Chesapeak Energy (CHK) $22.73 -8.41% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 10:39:50 AM

UNG $29.63 -4.04%

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 10:39:16 AM

EIA: Nat Gas Storage Table Link ... build of 12 Bcf

Tab Gilles : 11/6/2008 10:40:54 AM

Following positions closed, hit stops

As I posted last night AAPL $100 & SPY $94 would trigger closing positions:

AAPL Call Spread QAA-LC $3.75 Bid / QAA-LD $2.75 Ask = $1.00 - CB $2.20 or -$1.20 net (54%) Link

SPY Call spread SWG-LQ $5.85 Bid / SWG-LV Ask $3.50 = $2.35 - CB $2.80 or -$0.45 (16%)

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 10:38:00 AM

USO $50.37 -6.44% ... probes its 52-week low

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 10:37:08 AM

UNG has fallen back below our November futures termination benchmark of $29.74. Testing a trying to round-out 21-day SMA.

Keene Little : 11/6/2008 10:35:33 AM

I've got to run off to a doctor's appointment this morning. I should be back by lunch time.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 10:35:28 AM

UNG $29.47 -4.56% ... energy commondities all taking it on the chin.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 10:34:17 AM

Canada ... issued $6.5B in building permits in September, up 13.4% following an 11.7% decline in August. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 10:31:54 AM

Today's Global Econ Calendar Link

BOE lowered its Official Bank Rate 100 bp to 3.00%
ECB left Mininum Bid Rate unchanged at 3.25%.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2008 10:28:39 AM

The internals are all in agreement today, VIX is climbing, TRIN is well above 1.00, AD volume falling and AD ratio well below 1.00. The bears have the ball and field position today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2008 10:21:54 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Keene Little : 11/6/2008 10:21:15 AM

I had mentioned late in the day yesterday that I wasn't seeing any bullish divergences on the short-term charts and there still are not enough to warn me about a bottom forming. From a short-term pattern perspective I can see the need for a brief consolidation near the lows and then another new low. From there we should be due a bigger bounce to correct the decline from Tuesday. At this point I'm not sure SPX will make it down to 920 before the bigger bounce starts.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2008 10:08:10 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Equities in Moscow fell sharply Thursday, tracking a broad-based retreat in stock markets around the world. The dollar-denominated RTS stock index fell 6% in intraday trading, causing the stock exchange to halt trading for one hour starting at 1:35 p.m. Moscow time. At the Micex stock exchange, the benchmark index fell 5.9%, also leading to a temporary trading suspension, according to the website of the exchange.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2008 10:07:11 AM

Two studies are showing compensation to Wall Street employees from secretaries to CEO's will fall from 20% to 50% with the deepest cuts for bankers and traders in the Mortgage Backed Securities business and all firms that had collateralized debt obligations on their balance sheets.

It is projected bonuses will be slashed from 60% to 70%.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2008 9:48:33 AM

The labor Department's Jobless Claims report reached its highest level in 25 years for the week ending October 25th. Claims rose 122,000 from the prior week to a seasonally adjusted 3.84 Million. The good news is that first time applicants fell by 4000.

New jobless claims are up 45% compared to a similar week last year and continuing claims are up 46%.

In other news the Preliminary Nonfarm productivity and Unit cost release revealed US firms cut back working hours in the third quarter at the fastest rate in six years but kept productivity growing more than expected. Productivity data is a measure of output per hour of all persons and increased at a 1.1% annualized as output fell 1.7% and hours worked dropped 2.7%. Economists expected productivity to increase at a 0.30% annual rate.

Real hourly compensation fell in the last quarter marking the largest annual decline in 13 years.

Tomorrow we have the nonfarm payroll numbers for October. Economists are expecting a plunge of about 210,000 and for the unemployment rate to climb to 6.3%.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2008 9:39:14 AM

AD line does indeed open bearishly neutral at -581.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2008 9:31:33 AM

Good morning all. Here are your overnight charts. Sideways move at previous day lows suggest that the first initial move will be down and if the bulls are able to stage a rally I would be watching the overnight highs for resistance. I suspect the AD line will open mostly neutral with a bearish bend. Link

Keene Little : 11/6/2008 9:28:28 AM

After-hours trading was fairly volatile for stocks and bonds with both down as we head for the bell. SPX 940 area is potential support which is where ES is currently trading. If that doesn't hold then 920 should be next.

Keene Little : 11/5/2008 11:33:04 PM

Thursday's pivot table: Link

Since the October 10th low I've been trying to figure out what kind of 4th wave correction we'll see play out. With up to 11 different corrective patterns, and with the 4th tending to be the more complex (as compared to a 2nd wave correction), it's sometimes very late in the correction before it becomes clear. So that's what I'm dealing with at the moment in trying to use EW for our roadmap at the moment.

As the SPX 120-min chart below shows, it's still possible we're in a sideways triangle consolidation pattern which calls for another down-up sequence as shown in pink before we'll get the 5th wave down to new annual lows, perhaps starting after mid month and finishing by the end of the month. Link

But as the dark red depiction shows, an a-b-c 4th wave may have completed at Tuesday's high and we've just started the 5th wave down which could have SPX testing the 768 level by mid month.

One other possibility is a short-term bullish pattern (green) that calls for a pullback (which started on Wednesday) and then another rally leg into the end of the month. I consider that possibility low on the probability scale but keep it in mind if short the market--any rally now that gets back above Tuesday's high would be bullish and I would exit short positions and wait out the bounce.

Earlier on Wednesday I showed a daily chart of SPX and pointed out potential sell signals from the oscillators. Using my fast settings of 5(3)3 for stochastics it crossed down today. MACD has now reached the zero line and if it curls back over it will be a strong sell signal (one of the more reliable). Wednesday's candle is a tweezer top which is a reversal pattern. The last one was September 19-22 (Friday-Monday). Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 11:27:43 PM

Wednesday's Closing Internals Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 11:02:28 PM

Blotter of CLOSED and OPEN/active trade profiles that I've made at this Link

Throw on a closing session VIX.X measure as a daily benchmark of what PREMIUMS are doing with our options.

That old bugger HUM came right back up to/near $36.64 again didn't it? Remember on 10/06/08 we put it at entry of $36.82, close at exit $31.27 on 10/10/08.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 10:49:56 PM

Hey! DIA $91.85 -4.53% Wednesday. Still above our BULLISH exit on the DIA from 10/28/08 exit of $88.35. Remember my target was a SWING target of $87.40 on the 10/28/08 entry of $83.06.

We "let it run" toward the close that day, EXCEEDING the swing target.

On Wednesday, weren't you maybe thinking that PHM might do the same? If the broader market could find a footing and turn back higher? ... Yes indeed. Witches Brew!

I was willing to let it run if it could. It couldn't, and the MARKET stopped us as a raised stop.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 10:43:44 PM

USD/JPY live daily interval Link ... showing 21-day and 50-day SMA. Flip it upside down and you've got the FXY.

Looks kind'a like the U.S. Majors doesn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 10:34:21 PM

Forex Currency (Live) Link

EUR/USD ... this is strength/weakness of the euro vs. the US$ ... FXE in your US Market Watch finished $129.12 (move the decimal to the left 2 digits for 1.2912)

USD/JPY this is strength/weakness of the US$ vs. Yen. This one a bit trickier for the FXY (strength/weakness of yen vs US$). Take 200.00 - USD/JPY to get your FXY of $101.57.

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 10:24:02 PM

CI, HUM, AET, UNH montage Link

21-day SMA observations ... HUM and UNH above theirs (give 1-3 sessions). CI and AET below theirs.

Within retracement ... Ranking from weakest to strongest should now be ... CI, AET, HUM and UNH?

Jeff Bailey : 11/5/2008 10:23:10 PM

Health Payors (HMO.X) ... daily interval chart set up like we've been following with CI, HUM, AET and UNH (there are others, but can show only so many). HMO.X could also serve as an "Obama-guage" and a "employment/payroll guage". While I'm bearish bias the HMO's, we must also think the other side of the trade. REMEMBER! The MARKET is FORWARD LOOKING and we must at least consider all is baked in the cake. That 10/31/08 Cigna (CI) trade was incredible. You saw it right here in the market monitor. That CI could have been the selling "climax" stock of the group. Still, look where the HMO.X found its resistance. You saw that Wednesday too. HMO's were in the green and "strong" relative to the major averages today. EVEN AFTER "Obama wins!" Here's the chart Link

OI Technical Staff : 11/5/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Market Monitor Archives