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Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 8:50:21 PM

Current CLOSED and OPEN/active MM profiles that I've made at this Link

EUR/YEN cross rate finished 122.24

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 8:34:29 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Keene Little : 11/11/2008 4:26:08 PM

Bottom line for tomorrow is that it looks like we should play the initial direction. Back above this afternoon's high would be bullish and below today's low would be bearish. Let the market show us which way to play it.

Keene Little : 11/11/2008 4:14:55 PM

With the potential bearish setup heading into tomorrow, where we could get a 3rd of a 3rd wave down (of the larger degree 5th wave that will take SPX to or below 768), they often start with a gap down and then run lower. If we gap down tomorrow morning it will likely be a get short day and hold on for the ride. So being long overnight is riskier than being short.

Jim Brown : 11/11/2008 4:10:30 PM

That was definitely a lackluster close after the promising afternoon bounce we got from the GSE press conference.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 4:08:31 PM

Biiiig volume in the SPY at the 04:00 tick

Keene Little : 11/11/2008 4:05:10 PM

For tomorrow we've got a setup for a move higher. The bulls can't dilly dally though--any break below today's low would be bearish and potentially very bearish for a quick flush to the downside with a likely drop right through the October 28th low near 845 without so much as a blink. But if the bulls can keep this going then the upside targets will be 921 (two equal legs up from today's low), 941 (162% for the 2nd leg up), 970 (for an expanded flat correction from last Thursday's low) and then 990 (top of the sideways triangle).

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 3:58:50 PM

YM 8,690 ... 50% dynamic

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 3:56:02 PM

T +0.14% and MCD +0.05% ... call it 2:28

Keene Little : 11/11/2008 3:52:46 PM

SPX has held above 887 and it also came down and successfully tested its broken downtrend line from Monday's high (which it broke above this afternoon). The bulls still have the reigns for now.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 3:43:25 PM

DDM $32.00

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 3:42:49 PM

TRIN 1.81 ... inches back above WKLY Pivot.

Keene Little : 11/11/2008 3:41:16 PM

Two equal legs down in this afternoon's pullback is at SPX 887.11 so that should hold if we're to see another rally leg.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 3:41:07 PM

RLX.X 258.58 -3.51% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 3:40:48 PM

BARE $4.69 +2.85% ...

Keene Little : 11/11/2008 3:39:55 PM

We may be at the start of a bigger corrective bounce (as part of the e-wave in the large sideways triangle pattern). If so we can expect lots of whipsaws. But it still should hold above 885 if the larger bounce has started.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 3:37:57 PM

AVP $23.58 -5.90% ... slips to session low and 10/27/08 benchmark.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 3:32:13 PM

CDE $0.53 +3.92% ... offers "stepped away" there for about 30-minutes to $0.58, but that's been about it.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 3:31:06 PM

GG $21.59 -6.04% ... snug as a "gold bug" in a rug at WKLY Pivot.

Jane Fox : 11/11/2008 3:29:43 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- President-elect Barack Obama's first priority is laying groundwork to stabilize the economy, a co-chair of his transition team said Tuesday. Speaking to reporters, co-chair John Podesta also said federal lobbyists are barred from contributing to the transition and that the president-elect is "hard at work" on selecting his cabinet. He added that Obama won't attend this weekend's meeting of the G20 countries about the world financial system, saying, "we have one president at a time."

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 3:29:00 PM

CI $13.76
AET $22.64
HUM $34.35
UNH $20.17

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 3:28:11 PM

HMO.X 900.00 -2.71% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 3:24:55 PM

OEX no trade ... see VXO.X

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 3:24:30 PM

QQQQ was on the button at $29.72

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 3:24:06 PM

SMH did juuuuust undercut its WKLY S1 in late-morning trade with a session low of $17.66.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 3:22:19 PM

SMH $18.11 +0.05% ... inches back green.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 3:14:17 PM

UTH 93.41 +1.09% ... only equity-based sector I currently show green.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 3:10:35 PM

NASDAQ a/d 922/1,884

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 3:10:16 PM

NYSE a/d 694/2,242

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 2:59:26 PM

YM 30-minute interval chart Link

Keene Little : 11/11/2008 2:56:10 PM

With the hard bounce off SPX 884.90 it has no business being back down there if there is to be more rally ahead of us. Back below 885 would strongly suggest we've got a very bearish 1-2, 1-2 wave count to the downside from last Tuesday's high in which case we'd likely see SPX bust through the October 2002 low at 768 in a hurry. Updated 60-min chart: Link

Otherwise we're in a pattern that calls for a rally back up to about 970 for one EW count (dashed line) or up to 990 for the pink wave count (to finish the sideways triangle). All roads point to new lows by the end of the month or early December; it's just a matter of what path the market takes to get there.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 2:55:41 PM

YM 8,675 ... after test of WKLY pivot retracement 8,838 and that old upward trend.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 2:48:23 PM

VIX and VXO ... 30-minute interval montage with QCharts' WKLY Pivot Levels turned on Link

Keene Little : 11/11/2008 2:34:17 PM

Turns out that SPX 882-885 support zone was pretty strong--today's low was 884.90.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 2:33:22 PM

Getting some green on the screen.

Keene Little : 11/11/2008 2:34:45 PM

A late-day reversal like this is rarely reversed, especially when it looks like some strong program buying is behind it (with the allocation from bonds to stocks). We should see the market close well into the green today. But keep an eye on the downtrend line near SPX 920 for potential resistance.

Jane Fox : 11/11/2008 2:32:10 PM

Markets have clawed they way back into overnight ranges but not yet anywhere near ON highs. Link

Jane Fox : 11/11/2008 2:31:17 PM

VIX has fallen back to its previous day close. Link

Jane Fox : 11/11/2008 2:27:22 PM

Now we have evidence the bulls are waking up. AD ratio is turning up, AD volume is turning up, VIX is making new daily lows and the TRIN has fallen to 1.16 from a high of 2.38. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 2:25:12 PM

SMH $18.15 +0.27% ... joins the builders, transports.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 2:24:53 PM

TRAN 3,693 +0.08% ... joins the builders.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 2:24:22 PM

YM 8,749 ... RED/GREEN #0.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 2:22:00 PM

PHF $5.10 -1.92% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 2:21:46 PM

HYG $72.63 -0.31% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 2:21:11 PM

LQD $90.59 +0.35% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 2:20:46 PM

MUB $97.14 -0.02% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 2:19:41 PM

IEF $89.01 +0.31% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 2:16:50 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/11/2008 2:13:57 PM

Bonds dropped sharply at the same time stocks got the big bounce so we've got more program trading going on with big allocation programs between stocks and bonds.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 2:10:19 PM

RYL $16.17 +0.99% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 2:10:03 PM

KBH $13.74 +0.36% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 2:09:46 PM

TOL $19.36 +2.16% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 2:09:27 PM

PHM $9.45 -2.27% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 2:08:40 PM

DJUSHB 202.26 +0.89% ... first equity-based index to inch green.

Keene Little : 11/11/2008 2:02:44 PM

The next downtrend line is from last Tuesday and is currently near 920. Whether we're in just a bounce to correct the leg down from Monday or something bigger can't be known yet.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 2:02:28 PM

YM at RED #1

Keene Little : 11/11/2008 2:01:01 PM

SPX is tagging its downtrend line from Monday's high, here at 897.50. A break above it and then a hold above it would be bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 1:59:57 PM

HD +0.77% ... 1:29 on this very narrow a/d

Jane Fox : 11/11/2008 1:59:35 PM

... but the markets are not even back to overnight lows.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 1:59:04 PM

YM alert! 8,657 ... comes to MONTHLY 38.2%.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 1:58:30 PM

DDM $32.45

Jane Fox : 11/11/2008 1:58:16 PM

Vix is now making new daily lows.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 1:58:04 PM

IBM alert! $82.40 (see yesterday's MM)

Jim Brown : 11/11/2008 1:57:43 PM

I would be a buyer of the Nasdaq futures over 1220.

Jim Brown : 11/11/2008 1:56:58 PM

I am starting to see some positive indications on numerous charts. It appears the bottom fishers are starting to nibble on stocks at these levels. Lots of talk about a retest of the lows and hedge fund liquidations but internals are improving this afternoon.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 1:56:49 PM

The VETERANS may be lining up.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 1:56:22 PM

DDM $32.31

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 1:56:12 PM

TRIN alert! 1.74 ... slips back to WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 1:52:40 PM

DDM $32.10

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 1:51:03 PM

Let's call it 0:1:29

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 1:50:45 PM

Home Depot (HD) $20.74 (unch) ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 1:40:29 PM

Current CLOSE and OPEN/active MM trade profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 1:30:21 PM

DDM stop and target ... will be $29.60 and $39.00.

Jane Fox : 11/11/2008 1:21:37 PM

Crude Oil hit a low of 58.32 this morning, the one bright spot in our dreary economic picture. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 1:19:32 PM

FXY $102.09 -0.03% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 1:18:13 PM

VXO.X 64.10

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 1:17:58 PM

DIA $86.33

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 1:17:48 PM

YM 8,595

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 1:17:37 PM

Swing trade long alert! ... for 1/4 position in the ProShares Ultra Dow (DDM) at the offer of $32.10.

Keene Little : 11/11/2008 1:16:34 PM

One caution about a new high above the one near 11:45 AM is what I see on the NDX chart. It's possible we're getting an expanded flat correction since the low near 11:00 AM (NDX 1209.96) which would have the c-wave (the current bounce) reaching up to 1224.72 (162% of the a-wave) before reversing back down. It's a strange pattern today and it opens up several possibilities so it's a bit risky for both sides at the moment. It's downtrend line from Monday's high is near 1226 so any break above that level would be double confirmation that we've seen the low for now.

Keene Little : 11/11/2008 1:11:54 PM

A rally above the last high near 11:45 AM (SPX 896) would confirm that we've seen a bottom for at least today. The next hurdle would be the downtrend line from Monday, currently near 901. Above 901 would also be back above last Thursday's low of 899.73 which should be resistance now if lower prices are ahead.

Keene Little : 11/11/2008 1:04:03 PM

The way the market is chopping its way lower since about 10:30 AM has me thinking we're in an ending pattern. If it is then we could get one more minor new low that sets up a rally. The other alternative is that the bottom is getting ready to fall out. So holding short with a stop just above a downtrend line along the highs from 10:30 AM is my recommendation here.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 12:49:53 PM

Dow Components at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/11/2008 12:44:00 PM

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Las Vegas Sands Corp. were halted Tuesday after the hotel and casino operator said it will suspend construction activity in Macau to help preserve its cash while raising money to focus resources on projects underway in Singapore and Pennsylvania.

Keene Little : 11/11/2008 12:46:53 PM

Happy Veterans Day. Thanks for your service. A nice little video to view: Link . Click on the "more info" link on the right side for neat background info.

Thanks Mike. It's a nice reminder and tribute to our veterans who deserve our thanks, especially those who served in combat.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 12:40:39 PM

SPX Heavyweights Link

Keene Little : 11/11/2008 12:32:55 PM

It looks like we're going to see SPX work its way down to at least the 882-885 area. Short term bullish divergences continue so stay aware of the possibility for at least a larger bounce to start from this area.

Jane Fox : 11/11/2008 12:27:57 PM

The AD ratio (top chart) is well below 1.00 indicating bearishness. It has not turned up at all so far today suggesting the bulls are nowhere to be found.

The AD volume's (middle chart) trajectory is straight down suggesting the bulls are nowhere to be found.

The VIX is not hovering at daily highs, not overly bearish but certainly not telling us there is any reason to be bullish .

The TRIN is 2.05 suggesting things are oversold and we may get a dead cat bounce although I would not be trying to fade a market this bearish until I there is a more evidence than the market is "too oversold." Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 12:22:54 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 12:18:12 PM

FXY $102.36 +0.22% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 12:17:55 PM

SPY $89.08 alert! ... Has seen trade at WKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 12:01:39 PM

AVP-XX $1.40 x $1.50

VIX.X 63.85

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 12:01:01 PM

Avon Products (AVP) $24.05 -3.99% ... retraces 38.2% of recent advance.

Keene Little : 11/11/2008 12:00:05 PM

So far it's just another 3-wave bounce (correction) so I'm watching to see if it turns into something bigger to the upside or just heads back down. I don't see enough evidence yet to turn me bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 11:51:00 AM

USO $48.62 -5.09% ... WKLY S1 ($46.72).

Should note that December Crude Oil future's Bearish Vertical Count $50.00 and would currently take a trade back above the 10/21/08 November contract's ternimation benchmark to negate the Bearish Vertical count.

USO finished $58.77 on 10/21. You'll note the 11/04 bounce high was $57.38.

Keene Little : 11/11/2008 11:46:48 AM

With the short term bullish divergences now on the 5 and 10-min charts (higher low on the oscillators at this morning's lower price low) and the potential for bullish divergences on the 30 and 60-min charts if price turns back up, we may have a setup here for a stronger rally back up. Back above this morning's high near 10:30 AM would be short-term bullish and above the downtrend line from Monday's high, currently near SPX 907, would signal we've seen the low for now.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 11:46:47 AM

FXE $125.77 -1.29% ... after test of its WKLY S1 (125.39).

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 11:40:02 AM

VXN.X 63.34 +8.38% ... traded its QCharts WKLY R1 (63.10) at 10:00 AM ET.

This is DIFFERENT than we've seen in VIX.X action relative to SPX

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 11:38:17 AM

NDX.X 1,210.75 -3.21% ... trades its WKLY S1.

Keene Little : 11/11/2008 11:32:03 AM

SPX stopped shy of the 882-885 area and we've got a nice little bounce. The question of course is whether or not it will hold. I'm looking for evidence of what kind of bounce it will become to help determine whether it will gain more momentum to the upside or not. Jury is still out.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 11:24:51 AM

dj- CFTC Chairman: Sees 1 or 2 CDS Clearinghouses Approved in Weeks

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 11:13:59 AM

dj- World Bank To Boost Financial Crisis Assistance By Over $100 Billion

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 11:13:18 AM

dj- World Bank Slashes '09 Global Growth Forecast To 1% from 3%

Keene Little : 11/11/2008 11:10:24 AM

test--time of post 11:07:30

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 11:07:03 AM

VXO.X 65.54 +8.15% ... WKLY R1 (70.38) and MNTHLY Pivot (69.69) just ahead.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 11:05:33 AM

VIX>X 64.51 +7.55% ... trades Q R2.

Keene Little : 11/11/2008 11:04:57 AM

SPX 882-885 support area is next. I can't say that I see much in the way of bullish divergences or even the wave count for the decline that tells me to expect that support level to hold. But it has some key Fib and Gann importance so protect profits if short.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 11:02:04 AM

UNH $19.93 -7.04% ... undercuts the $20.00 strike. WKLY S2/Daily S2 exhausted.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 10:51:27 AM

Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH) 88.11 -5.98% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 10:50:50 AM

dj- Brazil's OGX to drill five-six wells in 2009; to accelerate to 18-19 wells in 2010.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 10:48:57 AM

CI, AET, HUM, UNH daily interval montage Link ... CI and AET MACD/Signal oscillators similar.

HUM still rising, but "should" begin to roll. UNH flattening out below zero (0), holding $20.00 strike.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 10:37:00 AM

Healthcare Payors (HMO.X) 893.20 -3.44% ... have probed their 10/10/08 inflection low. Chart from 11/05/08 Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 10:31:43 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Note: At the conclusion of yesterday's trade, the RUT.X's 5-day NH/NL ratio did reverse back lower at 8.00% (7.20% actual).

Keene Little : 11/11/2008 10:31:08 AM

The bounce is looking corrective so we should have another leg down coming.

Jane Fox : 11/11/2008 10:20:59 AM

The internals remain bearish and so far the bulls are not showing any signs of life. Link

Keene Little : 11/11/2008 10:10:59 AM

Looking at the decline from last Tuesday's high, the 2nd leg down started from yesterday's high. It would achieve 62% of the 1st leg (last week's decline) at SPX 885 which is obviously very close to the Gann 882-883 level of interest. So that's another reason for potential support in this area.

If it drops below 880 SPX should then drop down to the next potential support zone at 844-850. Two equal legs down from last Tuesday is at 844.17 and the uptrend line from October 10th (bottom of potential sideways triangle) is near 850. And the October 28th low is near 845. As shown on the 60-min chart, the bottom of a parallel down-channel runs through this area later today but that would obviously be a sharp drop from here. Updated 60-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 10:10:33 AM

Here too a very different looking volatility measure.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 10:09:54 AM

RVX.X 67.29 ... QCharts' WKLY R1 67.43.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 10:08:32 AM

RUT.X 483.00 -2.04% ... trades WKLY S1.

Jane Fox : 11/11/2008 10:07:23 AM

CitiMortage, JPMorgan and Bank of America all are now pledging to lower interest rates for more borrowers or take other steps to keep more people in their homes. Some government plans being proposed would go much further.

Although some wonder why we should be bailing out homeowners who took on more debt than they should have, more and more economists are realizing that the housing crisis is just getting worse and the 5 or 6 or 7 million more foreclosures we have in the pipeline will derail the US economy, or derail it even further, and why we need to bail these people out.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 9:58:20 AM

Current CLOSED and OPEN/active MM profiles that I've made at this link Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 9:57:18 AM

VIX.X 63.93 +6.58% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 9:56:58 AM

GoldCorp. (GG) $21.40 -6.87% ... trades 11/06/08 benchmark entry.

GG-XX $3.30 x $3.50

Jane Fox : 11/11/2008 9:55:52 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Shares of troubled mall operator General Growth Properties Inc. (GGP) plunged 70% early Tuesday after the company in a filing warned it may be forced to file for bankruptcy if it can't refinance its debt. "In the event that we are unable to extend or refinance our debt or obtain additional capital on a timely basis and on acceptable terms, we will be required to take further steps to acquire the funds necessary to satisfy our short-term cash needs, including seeking legal protection from our creditors," the real estate investment trust said in a filing late Monday. "Our potential inability to address our 2008 or 2009 debt maturities in a satisfactory fashion raises substantial doubts as to our ability to continue as a going concern."

Jane Fox : 11/11/2008 9:54:21 AM

It certainly doesn't look like the Natural Gas ETF, UNG will give a buy signal today. Yesterday I posted this chart in anticipation the reverse head and shoulders would break the neckline and give me the go-ahead to go long. Link

Jane Fox : 11/11/2008 9:51:41 AM

Toll Brothers (TOL) have reported a 41% 4th quarter loss year over year and then adding insult to injury, said it couldn't estimate 2009 profit because of uncertainly in the housing market and other economic conditions.

Keene Little : 11/11/2008 9:44:56 AM

Yesterday afternoon's high (SPX 920) is a good stop level if you're short. Back above that level could see a fairly strong rally leg. For now you can use a downtrend line from Monday's high to trail your stop lower.

Jeff Bailey : 11/11/2008 9:44:31 AM

VIX.X and VXO.X daily interval montage at yesterday's close Link

Keene Little : 11/11/2008 9:38:21 AM

Assuming we'll make it down to SPX 882 this morning, that's the first potential support level (the Gann level). So if your in some short-term short trades, especially November puts, you should be in profit protection mode if that level gets tagged.

Jane Fox : 11/11/2008 9:36:09 AM

Yesterday the VIX closed at 60 and has opened at 62.51 this morning. AD line is -1180. The bears have the ball this morning for sure. Let's see if they can keep it.

Jane Fox : 11/11/2008 9:30:51 AM

American Express is up after the Federal Reserve approved the credit-card firm's application to become a bank to get speedier access to U.S. government cash.

Jane Fox : 11/11/2008 9:29:39 AM

Due to Veterans Day there aren't any major economic releases from the government and the bond market is closed.

Jane Fox : 11/11/2008 9:28:28 AM

Yesterday the VIX started the day bearish but the AD line, AD ratio and TRIN were all bullish. I like the internals in sync but if they are not I will use a hierarchy of importance; the VIX is the most important, then AD volume/line, then AD ratio and then the TRIN. The TRIN comes last because it is unreliable when the FED is pumping money in the system and of late that has happened a great deal.

Then of course there has been days lately (more than I have ever seen) when the VIX was not reliable, which made wonder about it as well.

Turned out the VIX was right because within 2 hours of the open all the internals were bearish supporting the VIX.

Keene Little : 11/11/2008 9:19:57 AM

So much for an early morning rally before turning back down. Equity futures have bounced a little off their lows at 7:30 AM but not enough to negate a bearish setup for the start of the day. Futures made a new low below yesterday's so that negates the short-term setup for the pattern I showed last night. Surprises will be to the downside.

Jane Fox : 11/11/2008 9:18:18 AM

Here are your overnight charts. Markets broke their previous day lows but not by much and so far those lows seem to be holding as support. The AD line will probably open up bearish this morning, we'll see in about 15 minutes. Link

Jane Fox : 11/11/2008 9:01:38 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Chain-store sales for the week ended Nov. 8 rose 0.4% from the year-earlier period, the weakest sales growth since April 5, according to a survey released Tuesday by the International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs. On a week-over-week basis, sales dropped 1%. "Consumers continue to spend on everyday items, but have scaled back sharply elsewhere," said Michael Niemira, ICSC's chief economist. He forecast November sales to be down 1% to flat.

Keene Little : 11/11/2008 1:42:03 AM

Tuesday's pivot table: Link

Here's a little EW lesson for why I think the market will get a quick bounce in the morning and then head lower again. It's not a sure thing but it's a setup that I'll be watching. At the end of the day I posted a SPX 10-min chart showing an expanded flat correction that calls for the early morning rally to then be followed by more selling. The Fib projection for the leg up is just shy of 930: Link

I was asked about this pattern and how an a-b-c bounce off the mid-day low (the higher low before the new low in the late afternoon) could lead to a new high above the high near 2:00 PM and not have that be more bullish. Here's an EW chart to show what an expanded flat correction looks like (the one on the right): Link . This example is for an a-b-c pullback before resuming the prior trend up. In the current situation with SPX we have a downtrend so the it's the same pattern but flipped upside down. The b-wave will typically exceed the length of wave A by 127%-138% and then wave C will typically be 162% of the length of wave A.

Looking at a 5-min chart shows this bounce pattern a little more closely and how the Fibs work out so far: Link . Wave B (the drop down from 2:00 PM to 3:30 PM) extended about 138% of wave A. Wave C should make it up to about 930 if it travels the full 162% of wave A. At least that's our upside target to watch. It could also stall at the height of wave A (926.72).

The bigger picture hasn't changed yet. The 60-min chart still shows a coming decline where I'll be watching for support first near 882 and then 850: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2008 11:43:33 PM

Retail Gasoline Heat Map Link

11/04/08 capture Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2008 11:35:24 PM

EIA: Retail Gasoline -17.6c to $2.224/Gal, Lowest Since Feb 07

The national average retail price of regular gasoline fell 17.6 cents to $2.224 a gallon in the week ended Monday, the Energy Information Administration said.

The price is the lowest since Feb. 12, 2007.

Prices are now 88.7c, or 28.5%, below a year earlier.

Since hitting a record high of $4.114 a gallon on July 7, prices have fallen in 17 of 18 weeks by a total of 41.7%, or $1.714/gallon. At the July record high, gasoline was priced at $1.13 a gallon above year-ago levels.

Gasoline prices have been pushed lower by plunging demand, first from the impact of cumulative high prices and then by the global economic crisis.

Prices fell in all regions, with the Rocky Mountains area showing the biggest weekly drop and the Midwest showing the lowest prices.

Among the nine states for which EIA publishes weekly prices, Ohio was the only state to average below $2/gallon. At $1.933, the price of regular gasoline in Ohio was the lowest since Feb. 21, 2005, EIA data show. Cleveland and Houston were among major cities showing prices below $2. Cleveland, at $1.952/gallon, showed the lowest since Feb. 21, 2005, while Houston, at $1.984/gallon showed the lowest prices since Jan. 29, 2007.

AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report said Monday gasoline prices averaged $2.24 a gallon nationwide, down 1.9 cents from Sunday and 86c below a year earlier.

EIA's gasoline price survey is collected through a telephone sampling of approximately 900 retail gasoline outlets.

Region Change Vs Price Week Ago Per Gallon

East Coast -17.7c $2.272
Midwest -17.7c $2.060
Gulf Coast -13.2c $2.096
Rocky Mountains -22.5c $2.257
West Coast -20.6c $2.534
California -22.8c $2.555

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2008 11:05:57 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2008 10:56:17 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch Link

OI Technical Staff : 11/10/2008 9:59:59 PM

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