Option Investor
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 9:14:02 PM

CI and WCG daily interval montage. Set up WCG (speculative call in MM profiles) just as I've been doing with others in the group Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 9:13:56 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Quite a change from that 01:10:40 post eh? Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 9:13:50 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 9:13:30 PM

Biggest volume day for NASDAQ since 10/23/08

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 8:46:51 PM

Biggest volume day on the big board since 10/16/08.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 8:41:18 PM

Current CLOSED and OPEN/active MM profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 5:02:02 PM

DXY 86.47 -1.21% ...
FXE $128.61 +3.01%
FXY $101.77 -3.24%
FXB $148.73 -0.60%

SPX 911.29 +6.92% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 4:19:49 PM

I'm not planning on it being "good" Jane, but thank you.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 4:16:54 PM

Today's Global Economic Calendar Link

Jane Fox : 11/13/2008 4:16:06 PM

See you Monday Jeff have a good weekend.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 4:15:34 PM

Didn't realize what time its was. Gosh the day went fast.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2008 4:15:33 PM

Tomorrow's economic calendar includes:

8:30 Import Price, Advance Retail Sales and Retail Sales minus Autos.

8:30 Bernanke Speaks

9:55 UofM Consumer Sentiment

10:00 Business Inventories.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 4:11:30 PM

Getting too close to the close ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 4:11:00 PM

YM long exit alert! 8,875

Jane Fox : 11/13/2008 4:10:59 PM

Change those numbers to Dow closes up 552.59 and the S&P 58.98.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 4:07:34 PM

YM long rise stop alert! to 8,846.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2008 4:04:59 PM

Dow closes up 571.15.

S&P closes up 59.36

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 4:04:58 PM

YM long stop is 8,830. Target 8,890

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 4:03:50 PM

YM Long alert! 8,870 here.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 4:02:31 PM

DIA $88.79

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 4:02:17 PM

CVX $75.82 +12.67% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 4:01:58 PM

XOM $76.00 +10.37% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 4:01:21 PM

Open/close was $28.02.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 4:00:16 PM

That's a nasty-looking 60-minute "doji" on the QQQQ today.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 3:56:02 PM

VIX.X 59.32 -10.74% ... there goes a heck of a lot of premium

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 3:54:12 PM

INDU 8,726 +5.35% ... still below WKLY Pivot.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2008 3:52:34 PM

When I mentioned earlier that I thought the DOW could rally to 9500 in short order I didn't mean today.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2008 3:51:22 PM

DOW is now up 451 points - just another day in the market. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 3:45:12 PM

INDU at MNTHLY 38.2%

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 3:44:23 PM

This morning headline ... "Stocks plunge as Dow Industrials fall below 8,000"

AP- Stocks embard on massive rebound Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 3:41:42 PM

GG $21.06 +8.27% ... alllll over the map today.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 3:40:55 PM

SMH $18.17 +6.00% ... how about that! (wink)

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 3:40:07 PM

NDX 1,201.59 +3.10% ...

QQQQ $29.96 +4.35% ...

Keene Little : 11/13/2008 3:39:53 PM

With only about 25 minutes to go it's looking like we could rally strong right into the close. If SPX gets above 900 it will negate the dark red count on my chart and that would say we're into the larger wave-e bounce to finish the larger degree 4th wave. The way it's rallying here it could finish the e-wave before tomorrow and set up another leg down early next week. It's going to be tricky figuring out the end of the e-wave (they can be the hardest to figure out within an already difficult 4th wave). Only suggestion at this point is to be trading very lightly. I'm still hedged and plan to stay that way into tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 3:39:13 PM

VXN.X sets up for a DAILY S2 after a DAILY R2. (see 12:51)

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 3:33:08 PM

VXO.X 64.27 -8.47% ... has edged under its DAILY R2

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 3:30:14 PM

OEX 425.28 +3.43% ... reclaims WKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 3:15:48 PM

Will hold the GCJ-KU's ... target is $4.40 in the option, about $11.90 conservative in the shares.

Keene Little : 11/13/2008 3:13:00 PM

In the follow-the-bouncing-ball game we're playing, the SPX 120-min chart has now been updated with the latest moves: Link . The parallel down-channel containing price action since the high on November 4th is still in play. Today's bounce might be the 4th wave in the move down from November 4th (so far the bounce is only a 3-wave move up, albeit a sharp 3-wave move) and that leaves open the possibility for one more leg down to complete the leg down from November 4th which would complete the leg down from May and set up the bigger rally into next year.

The final 5th wave, if it starts back down from here, has a Fib projection at 774.30, just above the October 2002 low of 768. It would be a sweet setup for a long play there.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 3:12:54 PM

Selling long a partial in WCG here at $8.61

Keene Little : 11/13/2008 2:59:22 PM

I had said the downtrend line from November 4th was near 877 but I should have said the downtrend line from Monday the 10th. The one from the 4th is near 883 and was almost tagged.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 2:53:21 PM

WCG $8.85 ... Red#2

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 2:45:01 PM

HMO.X 793.56 -6.96% ... sector loser. Only equity-based index/sector I show red.

Keene Little : 11/13/2008 2:42:16 PM

For SPX the downtrend line from November 4th sits near 877.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2008 2:36:44 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. federal government deficit soared in October to a record $237.2 billion, as the government invested more than $136 billion in various bank bailout programs, the Treasury reported Thursday.

Excluding the $21.5 billion investment in Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the $115 billion investment in major banks, the October deficit was $100.7 billion, up from $56.8 billion a year ago.

The deficit was about $5 billion more than estimated by the Congressional Budget Office.

The CBO said the investments in the Troubled Asset Relief Program should be accounted for a net present-value basis at $17 billion, not as cash outlays of $115 billion as the Treasury has been ordered to do by Congress.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2008 2:35:48 PM

I see Crude is in rally mode as well and is up over $2.00. Remember when only a $20.00 move was worth noting. Oh how times have changed.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 2:32:39 PM

There's the "cramp and ramp"

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 2:32:24 PM

SMH $17.75 +3.49% alert!

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 2:31:36 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/13/2008 2:29:43 PM

This candle formation is telling you that we could revisit 9500 again in short order. Link

Keene Little : 11/13/2008 2:25:30 PM

I've asked my lawyer to file a lawsuit againt Ms. Market. I've got a serious case of whiplash. My eyeballs are still bouncing around.

Keene Little : 11/13/2008 2:04:23 PM

We got the impulsive climb off the low and SPX made it back above 850, both bullish (the DOW has more work to do to get back above its broken uptrend line). We should see a pullback and then another leg higher for this bounce off the low. Quite the whippy day and did what this head-fake day does so well--stops longs out and sucks the shorts in and then spits them out on the way back up to higher highs. We'll have to see what kind of follow through we get to the upside but so far it's looking like we should see more.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 1:58:38 PM

VIX.X reversing course a bit 64.93 -2.30% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 1:55:01 PM

USO $47.69 +4.24% ... aftern near-kiss of QS2.

Jim Brown : 11/13/2008 1:56:49 PM

UWM $18.11 - Russell 2000 Proshares Ultra ETF - Trade alert

I believe the -500 point market drop to the October 10th lows could be a climax bottom. The option is currently ask $2.95 and that risk is more than reasonable when weighed against the potential for an eventual market rebound by April. This may not be a bottom but I believe we could be close. If Keene's big bounce before another decline idea comes true then this would be a potential short term play. If the next decline falters then we would be positioned for a longer term rebound. Either way $2.95 is not a lot of risk.

BUY UWM $25 April Call Option ULX-DY

Disclaimer: I own call options on the UWM

Keene Little : 11/13/2008 1:50:38 PM

It's a sharp bounce but so far it's just a 3-wave move so be careful chasing it higher. I want to see if it turns into an impulsive 5-wave move up.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 1:50:22 PM

HMO.X 777.12

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 1:49:10 PM

CI $12.60 -3.15%
AET $21.42 -1.78%
UNH $18.72 -0.79%

Keene Little : 11/13/2008 1:49:06 PM

Looks like a fairly strong v-bottom so far. The head fake may be playing out.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 1:48:23 PM

VIX.X 66.90

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 1:48:13 PM

Swing trade put exit alert! ... for the one (1) Humana HUM Jan $30 Put (HUM-MF) at the bid of $4.00.

HUM $30.51 -6.69% ...

Keene Little : 11/13/2008 1:45:14 PM

The DOW broke its uptrend line from October 10th yesterday and bounced up to it this morning and tagged it on the nose at 8410. That was as good a bearish setup as you'll find. Too bad I wasn't watching it. That trend line is marginally higher now at 8430--"only" 200 points above its present level.

Keene Little : 11/13/2008 1:36:46 PM

Updating the SPX 120-min chart shows we could now be into the larger decline depicted with the red wave count. This calls for a little bounce to be followed by a continuation lower into next week: Link . But as I've been complaining about ad nauseum, I don't like the looks of the pattern of the decline and it's got me nervous about the short side. That could simply mean we're going to get a "sneak-down" kind of decline where it's always looking like it's ready to bounce at any moment and by the end of the day it's down 400-500 DOW points.

The short-term bullish pattern, pink, still calls for a bigger bounce back up into early next week before heading lower. Unfortunately it has to get back above 900 now before it negates the bearish (dark red) wave count. A bounce back up to today's high could be considered just a normal correction in the bearish wave count. But first it will have to deal with potential resistance at the broken trend line near 850.

Best advice continues to stay on the short side until we get some evidence that a bottom has formed. I got bullish (or at least less bearish) this morning but obviously jumped the gun. Now we wait to see if this Thursday really does turn into a head-fake day.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 1:33:58 PM

WCG at RED#3. $7.98

Keene Little : 11/13/2008 1:28:56 PM

If you draw a trend line along the lows since Tuesday morning on SPX, it broke below that line today and has now just bounced back up to it at 836. This should be resistance if we've got lower lows coming.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 1:10:40 PM

01:03 Watch with quick OIX/XNG and USO/UNG YrNet% benchmarks. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 12:59:48 PM

VIX.X 68.39

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 12:59:30 PM

GG-XX $5.40 x $5.60 now.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 12:59:06 PM

GG $18.15 with session low now $18.04 and DAILY S2.

Keene Little : 11/13/2008 12:57:14 PM

It's not looking so good here for the bulls. Next potential support for SPX is the bottom of a small parallel down-channel from November 4th, currently near 821.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 12:55:46 PM

HMO.X 778.76 -8.58% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 12:55:23 PM

AET $21.21 -2.75% ..
HUM $30.49 -6.75% ...
UNH $18.45 -2.22%
WCG $6.71 -66.23%

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 12:54:25 PM

CI $12.50 alert!

Keene Little : 11/13/2008 12:54:09 PM

One other thing to keep in mind about today is that it's typically a head-fake day. It has often been a reversal day into opex week. That's by no mean a sure bet but it's one other thought I've had about not trusting the downside. SPX has now done a small throw-under below the bottom of the descending wedge pattern I showed earlier so it's do or die time for the bulls here. If there's no immediate reversal then the bears win.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 12:53:01 PM

SMH $16.99 alert!

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 12:52:46 PM

Should NOT get back above DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 12:52:31 PM

QQQQ $27.89 -2.89% ... gets the trade at DAILY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 12:51:01 PM

NDX 1,137.29 -2.41% ... set to test DAILY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 12:48:57 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Keene Little : 11/13/2008 12:48:16 PM

If the market keeps sinking lower the next level of support for NDX would be near 1100 where some trend lines cross and then down to 1060 where a Fib projection crosses the bottom of a parallel down-channel, shown on this 120-min chart: Link

The pattern of the decline continues to make me a paranoid short, hence my lightening up on my position and doing some hedging, but it's clearly too early to be thinking strongly bullish. There seems to be more a lack of buying than strong selling (even though the selling is overwhelming the buying). It continues to be a trickly spot right here. The overlapping price action since October 14th is just ugly.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 12:31:00 PM

Was thinking $700/$20.00 this morning and contemplating a more sustainable move higher from those strikes.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 12:29:20 PM

GG $18.83 -3.18% ... back to DAILY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 12:23:29 PM

GLD $70.12 +0.17% ... backfills morning gap higher.

Keene Little : 11/13/2008 12:20:09 PM

The bottom of the descending wedge for SPX, if that's the correct pattern, is currently just below 840. As mentioned earlier, two equal legs down from this morning's high is at 843. So that's the target zone for potential support.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2008 12:02:22 PM

Yikes, Direxion is set to offer ETFs that will give you three-times the leveraging power of their underlying benchmarks.

Direxion says that the eight 3x leveraged ETFs should launch on Wednesday. They're part of some 36 in the works.

For example, if the Russell 1000 Index gains 1% in a trading session, the Direxion Large Cap Bull 3x ETF is designed to gain 3%. On the other hand, the Direxion Large Cap Bear 3x ETF would move in just the opposite direction. If the same Russell index fell 1%, the ETF's goal would be to gain about 3%.

Half of the initial eight hitting the market later this week will provide 3x leveraged exposure. The other four will offer 300% inverse exposure.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 11:59:56 AM

HMO.X 788.86 -7.52% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 11:54:28 AM

HUM $31.25 -4.12% ... HUM-MF $3.60 x $3.90

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 11:52:22 AM

VIX.X 65.01 -2.18% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 11:52:09 AM

WCG $6.76 -66.02% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 11:51:54 AM

Swing trade SPECULATIVE call alert! ... for one (1) of the Wellcare Health Plans WCG Nov. $7.50 Calls (GCJ-KU) $0.0.75 x $1.25 at the offer of $1.25.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2008 11:51:47 AM

Analysts seem to agree that even if the government throws GM a lifeline, it will be a short term fix and the company will not survive in the longer term. The problem will be is once they get one cash infusion they will require more and more and at what point do you say no more

Keene Little : 11/13/2008 11:48:49 AM

I may have jumped the gun a little since we don't have strong clues yet as to which way this market is heading but I exited my remaining November puts and have started nibbling on some long plays to hedge my December puts. If SPX breaks and holds below 840 I'll exit my long positions and let my short position ride.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 11:42:03 AM

Out of Office Alert! ... I will be out of the MM tomorrow, Friday and should return by Monday morning.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2008 11:38:27 AM

Well there is another 2100 jobs down the tube.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2008 11:37:45 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- National Semiconductor Corp. said late Wednesday it will cut 330 jobs as a cost cutting measure. The company employs about 7,000 people worldwide. National Semiconductor said it expects to save about $11 million to $13 million a quarter from the cuts. Most of the cuts will come from non-manufacturing positions, National Semiconductor said.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2008 11:37:20 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Applied Materials Inc. on Wednesday reported a fourth-quarter profit that fell 45% as the semiconductor-and-solar panel equipment maker delivered weaker sales due to broad declines in corporate spending on technology products. The company also said it would slash 1,800 jobs in order to cut its costs over the next year.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 11:19:03 AM

Wellcare shares plunge as filings delayed ... Reuters Story Link

Keene Little : 11/13/2008 11:18:36 AM

Two equal legs down from this morning's high is at SPX 843 so that makes a good downside target to watch for support. But we've now met the minimum requirement for the 5-wave decline from Monday and therefore a rally could start at any time. It's a tricky spot here. It takes a break above this morning's high to strongly suggest we've started a bigger rally into next week. A break and hold below 840 would negate the descending wedge pattern and suggest a strong decline to follow.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 11:17:32 AM

Have gone back to CI 10/31/08 trade. Slapped a lower 5-mrt on it. It traded a Red#6 and just a bit below it, then reversed.

Keene Little : 11/13/2008 11:07:42 AM

The move down from November 4th looks more like a 3-wave corrective move rather than an impulsive move. The move down from Monday the 10th looks particularly corrective (which is why I keep saying it looks like an ending pattern) which fits as a descending wedge for the c-wave of an a-b-c move down from the 4th. What all this means is that it fits well as the leg down within the large sideways triangle except that it might be a slightly different form of a triangle, called a leading 4th wave in EW terminology, which allows for a low slightly below the October 28th low.

That's just more EW gobbledegook-speak for why I think we're going to get a rally into next week even if it's only going to be into early next week before heading to new lows by the end of the month. The SPX 30-min chart shows the a-b-c move down, labeled in pink to match the 60-min chart, with a Fib target near 844 (could go slightly lower). I think SPX would have to break below 840 and hold below before the pattern turns more bearish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 11:04:27 AM

EIA inventory data just released.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 11:03:48 AM

I'm locked up

Jane Fox : 11/13/2008 11:00:40 AM

All times sited are Eastern Standard.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 10:59:33 AM

FXE $125.85 +0.80% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 10:59:06 AM

HUI.X 176.74 +0.71% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 10:58:51 AM

GLD $70.62 +0.88% ... ~706.20 spot

Jane Fox : 11/13/2008 10:58:43 AM

I also see FOMC member Stern at 2:00 along with the Federal Budget balance.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 10:58:02 AM

VIX.X 65.03

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 10:57:53 AM

GG $20.22 +3.95% .. .

Jane Fox : 11/13/2008 10:57:52 AM

Today I see FOMC member Plosser speaking at 12:30 and then President Bush at 1:55.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 10:57:38 AM

Swing trade put exit alert! the GoldCorp. GG Dec. $22.50 Put (GG-XX) at the bid of $4.10.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2008 10:57:16 AM

Crude hit at low of 54.67 today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 10:55:57 AM

Weallcare Health Plans (WCG) $6.78 -65.72% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 10:54:33 AM

HMO.X 780.49 -8.50% ... alert!

Keene Little : 11/13/2008 10:53:27 AM

I just noticed a possible pattern on the DOW and SPX that could have each making a minor new low yet and not be bearish (could finish the ending pattern to the downside that I mentioned about yesterday's decline). Fib projections for the ending pattern are at DOW 8143 and SPX 844.17. So don't get all bearish on a break of this morning's low--it may not be as important as I thought.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 10:53:18 AM

CI $12.88 -0.99%
AET $21.21 -2.75%
HUM $30.81 -5.77%
UNH $18.46 -2.17%

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 10:52:25 AM

AET $21.25 -2.56% alert!

Jane Fox : 11/13/2008 10:50:03 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. trade gap shrank to $56.5 billion in September as the exchange of goods and services with the rest of the world slowed sharply, offering further evidence of the global economic slump.

Imports dropped $12.5 billion to a seasonally adjusted $211.9 billion, a record 5.6% decline that was accelerated by the largest-ever monthly decrease in crude oil prices.

Exports fell a record $9.9 billion to $155.4 billion seasonally adjusted, a 6% decrease worsened by a sudden drop in aircraft shipments due to the strike at Boeing Co

Keene Little : 11/13/2008 10:44:33 AM

This morning's lows are now very important and are an absolute must hold for the bulls. If the lows give way we'll see the October 2002 lows in the DOW and SPX (7197/768) very quickly.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 10:38:31 AM

GG $20.06 +3.13% ... sitting on QS1 and Daily Pivot overlap.

Keene Little : 11/13/2008 10:33:13 AM

After the spike back up if we now get just a small pullback and then press higher again we will a 5-wave advance off this morning's low and that would be the first sign that we've got a trend change to the upside.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 10:30:26 AM

Missed it.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 10:30:13 AM

GG $20.26 +4.16% ... after a session low of $18.77.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 10:27:46 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Note(s): It would currently take a <=2.00% measure for the NYSE's 5-day NH/NL ratio to see a 3-box reversal back lower.

It would currently take a <=2.00% measure for the NASDAQ's 5-day NH/NL ratio to see a 3-box reversal back lower.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2008 10:22:37 AM

Mortgage Bankers Association said today mortgage applications rose last week 11.9% over the previous week but were still down 40% compared to the same week one year ago.

Keene Little : 11/13/2008 10:12:21 AM

Based on the choppy appearance of yesterday's decline (making it look like an ending pattern) I'm thinking support is going to hold and we're going to rally into next week. That's an early call without any kind of evidence from a bounce but that's the way I'm currently leaning.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2008 10:07:25 AM

John Whitehead, former Goldman Sachs chairman told Reuters the economy faces a slump deeper than the great depression and prospect of worsening consumer credit woes combined with an overtaxed federal government make him fear that the current slump is far from over.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 9:58:23 AM

NASDAQ Comp (COMPX) 1,483.44 -1.05% ... slips below bull run's 80.9% conventional (see Wednesday's Wrap) and overlapping WKLY S2.

Keene Little : 11/13/2008 9:55:04 AM

SPX had tagged support at 850 yesterday but NDX had not made it down to its potential support area at 1151-1155 (some Fib projections for the move down from November 4th). NDX just tagged 1155 so it's possible both will now hold and bounce. If no bounce then it could turn very bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 9:52:39 AM

RLX.X 243.19 -0.81% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 9:52:02 AM

Avon Products (AVP) $21.02 -2.50% ...

Jane Fox : 11/13/2008 9:51:57 AM

Foreclosures nationwide grew by 25 percent in October from a year ago.

Data from the tracking firm RealtyTrac showed more than 279,500 U.S. homes received foreclosures in October, up 5% over September. This is almost 1 out of every 452 homes and on top of the more than 84,000 houses that were foreclosed on in October.

By the year end, RealtyTrac expects more than a million homes will be in foreclosure, about a third of all properties for sale in the U.S.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 9:51:31 AM

Bare Escentuals (BARE) $4.17 -2.11% ... slips below its 10/31/08 close.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2008 9:45:44 AM

Well so much for all the bullishness. The VIX is now making new daily highs and the AD line has fallen to +134. That didn't take long did it?

Keene Little : 11/13/2008 9:39:29 AM

So far we've got a nice bounce to start the day. After yesterday's after-hours drop following the INTC warning I was tempted to post a recommendation to buy it. I've seen so many post-INTC reversals the following morning that it's almost a slam-dunk kind of trade. I have no idea why it gets reversed other than some players with big money know there are too many leaning one way and it's easy to get them running the other. But it's only good for a trade since I have no idea whether we'll see follow through to the upside this morning.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2008 9:37:51 AM

The VIX closed yesterday at 66.46 and opened this morning at 65.60. AD line is +1026 so the bulls have the ball for now.

Keene Little : 11/13/2008 9:22:23 AM

Equity futures had a volatile overnight session but have managed to work themselves into the green as we approach the opening bell (except for NQ--techs could be the drag today). If I use all-hours trading to judge the EW pattern it looks bearish because of the choppy rise from yesterday's post-INTC drop but we'll have to see how the cash session does this morning.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2008 9:20:03 AM

The DOW futures are up +33
The S&P futures are up +1.75
The NDX futures are down 4.75
The Russell 2000 futures are up +0.30

Jane Fox : 11/13/2008 9:17:28 AM

Although the overnight markets took a drubbing as soon as they opened at 4:30ET they were able to rally back into their respective previous day ranges but not for long. Another test of the overnight lows proved to be successful and a double bottom was made. This should tell you that overnight low will be an important support should it be tested again. Link

Jane Fox : 11/13/2008 9:01:03 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- First-time filings for state unemployment benefits hit their highest level since September 2001 in the latest week, rising to 516,000 in another sign of a struggling U.S. labor market, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

For the week ending Nov. 8, initial claims climbed by 32,000 from last week's revised figure of 484,000.

The four-week average of new claims -- which measures the underlying trend -- also hit a historic high, shooting up to 491,000. That's the highest since March 1991.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 1:09:44 AM

YM off 49 at 8,231; YG off $4.20 at $713.30 ... see you in the morning!

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 1:02:36 AM

Quick check of SMH's extended session would show tick low of $16.50. Tick high $17.98. Last tick was $16.70.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 1:02:00 AM

Setting SMH alerts at ... >=$17.75 , <=$16.99 and <=$16.62.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 1:00:09 AM

Daily, Weekly, Monthly index pivot matrix Link

For daily's, INDU, SPX, OEX and RUT.X need to be calibrated on gap lower days like Wednesday. Use the respective TRACKERS (DIA, SPY and IWM) to find the 5-minute interval high.

Reason we want to do this is due to staggared opens of listed stocks, that are not electronic trade.

Unless halted, NASDAQ-listed stocks are electronic and will open at cash session 09:30 AM ET tick.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 12:39:14 AM

SMH Daily R1 and WKLY S1 correlated. As is DAILY S2/WKLY S2; has to get below MNTHLY S1.

With INTC and AMAT in the balance, this is a good one tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 12:34:48 AM

SPX/SPY correlation in DAILY S1 and WKLY S2 tomorrow.

Considered "in play" with RUT.X trading and closing below its WKLY S2. RUT.X's DAILY R2 and WKLY S1 correlated.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 12:17:08 AM

US Dollar Index (DXY) 1-point box Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 12:06:57 AM

At current trade, $HSI would be down -53.17% YTD, -27.7% QTD. (per Wednesday's Wrap)

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 12:07:05 AM

At current trade, $NIKK would be down -46.24% YTD, -26.9% QTD. (per Wednesday's Wrap)

Jeff Bailey : 11/12/2008 11:47:36 PM

Asian Markets: ... "Sun is up" in Japan with $NIKK lower by 5.36% at 8,229.50. Hang-Seng lower by 6.55% at 13,025.

Jeff Bailey : 11/12/2008 11:45:49 PM

YM off 77 at 8,203

Keene Little : 11/12/2008 11:41:46 PM

Thursday's pivot table: Link

I could see it coming all afternoon--I had a strong feeling we'd close the day right at support and that's exactly what SPX did. It had a very small bounce off the uptrend line from October 10th, the bottom of the potential sideways triangle pattern we've been watching for what seems ages. 120-min chart: Link

Disregarding the bearish news out of INTC after the market closed (and tanked futures), the setup going into Thursday is a coin toss--it's a perfect setup to buy support for another run up towards the top of the trading range (pink), so potentially back up to about SPX 980. But a gap down below support, and especially a break below 845 (the October 28th low) would negate the triangle pattern and strongly suggest we're heading for new lows (dark red).

The bearish price pattern, as mentioned last night (starting the 3rd of a 3rd wave down which often includes gaps in the direction of the trend), means we could see the October 2002 low (768) not just tested but probably broken. A flush down to 661 (the Gann level) would likely be a good capitulation event and one I'd glady start buying (with some January OTM call options).

As for the bearish reaction to INTC's after-hours warning, I've seen time and again a complete reversal the following morning so I don't predict a gap down tomorrow morning just because futures are down after hours. It could very well happen but this is the moment the PPT will step in if they have any money left. The market is vulnerable to another crash leg lower and they know it. We'll see what the sunrise brings us.

OI Technical Staff : 11/12/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Market Monitor Archives