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Keene Little : 11/14/2008 4:42:16 PM

The same downtrend line for SPX, the one it found support at for the mid-day low, is currently a little lower near 860 first thing Monday morning (closed near 873).

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 4:41:06 PM

NDX stopped at its broken downtrend line from November 4th so it too leaves us guessing for Monday: Link

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 4:30:55 PM

Interesting where the DOW stopped today. After breaking its uptrend line from October 10th yesterday it then climbed back above it in the afternoon. Today it cycled up and down above the trend line and closed right on it. Once again it's a coin toss for Monday--gap down and run for new lows from here or rally off support and get above today's high? One or the other will happen. DOW 120-min chart: Link

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 4:06:10 PM

Quite a bit of volatility today and the drop into the close looks bearish. But the possibility remains that we'll see a sideways consolidation, or even slightly lower, before heading higher again.

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 3:53:13 PM

The bears should by no means be complacent about heading into the weekend. Depending on your short position and what you can tolerate for a move against your position, understand the risk that the pullback into the close could be like pulling back a slingshot and it will be followed by a gap up and strong run higher on Monday morning.

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 3:49:40 PM

There is the possibility that we'll see more of a sideways consolidation between today's high and low in the early part of next week before heading higher again. We obviously can't know whether that will happen but it's a hope (dare we use that word?) the bulls can hang onto for the moment. Just don't trade on hope and honor your stops.

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 3:47:20 PM

Today's double top against yesterday's high has left a bearish divergence on the charts. Not bullish.

Jim Brown : 11/14/2008 3:41:43 PM

Dead stop at 8900 and the bears are running out the clock with 20 min to go.

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 3:40:10 PM

SPX just bounced off its uptrend line from yesterday's low through today's low, at 890.

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 3:37:33 PM

I covered my long hedge position. We might have only completed the 1st wave of the leg up from today's pullback and now we're getting a 2nd wave pullback. That would leave us setup for a 3rd wave up on Monday (maybe starting with a gap up). That's the bullish potential. The bearish potential is that the bounce off yesterday's low is now complete and we're going to drop hard on Monday.

Considering the fact that I'm in December puts I'd rather risk a quick jump higher on Monday that I feel confident will reverse than to be long going into Monday and then get hammered to the downside and risk not getting back to this level for many weeks.

James Brown : 11/14/2008 3:29:29 PM

Wow! As if the daily volatility in this market wasn't enough there are some new ETFs that began trading several days ago that are already seeing some strong volume.

The Direxion Large Cap 3x Bull ETF (symbol: BGU) and the Large Cap 3x Bear ETF (symbol: BGZ).

These ETFs are designed to move three times the performance of the Russell 1000 index. The BGZ will move the inverse.

If you're a day trader then this might be a new vehicle for you.

I'm not recommending anyone start trading these but I'd keep them on my watch list if you're a nimble enough trader.

Additional ETFs are:
TNA = small cap 3x bull ETF
TZA = small cap 3x bear ETF

ERX = energy bull 3x ETF
ERY = energy bear 3x ETF

FAS = financial bull 3x ETF
FAZ = financial bear 3x ETF.

For more information click here: Link

Jim Brown : 11/14/2008 3:22:27 PM

That was about the 5th time the Dow tried to move over 8900 in the last hour and was rebuffed by sellers. If this continues we could see a different direction at the close.

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 3:20:33 PM

I'm rethinking my bearish expectations out of this weekend. Considering where we are in the price pattern, especially if we're looking for a wave-E finish to the large 4th wave correction since the October 10th low, it would make a lot of sense to get a big bullish reaction out of the G20 meeting. Maybe they'll promise to inject another $2T into moribund companies in hopes that it will really work this time.

The e-wave of 4th waves (the final wave of an a-b-c-d-e pattern) is oftentimes associated with a news event and will therefore usually set the trap. In this case it would be a bull trap. A gap up on Monday and run higher would get most people feeling bullish about the promise of more government help, get the shorts to cover and then it will all come crashing down. Fib projections for the move up on Monday, for this scenario, would be to 928 and then 964 if 928 breaks. From there I would expect the next leg down to kick into gear. SPX 120-min chart: Link

Jim Brown : 11/14/2008 3:20:39 PM

Dow +70, Russell -15 (-3.1%). This rally has no support in the broader market. This is a big cap rally only. Funds appear to be buying the liquid big caps where they can exit quickly next week if the G20 meeting produces no results.

James Brown : 11/14/2008 2:59:08 PM

Noticing that Scotts Miracle Gro (SMG) is up 2.1% and breaking out over technical resistance at its 200-dma. Might be worth checking out. The P&F chart is bullish with a $38 target.

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 2:54:57 PM

With a little more than hour to go, and who knows what the last hour could bring, I'm going to drag my stop up just underneath the last pullback low at 2:30 PM (SPX 892.61). I want to take as much of the profits as I can from the long play and get back to my short position for the weekend (in case there's a negative surprise out of the G20 meeting).

We could head higher still on Monday, and in fact the pattern would look better with a continuation higher on Monday, and I'll evaluate that possibility Monday morning as to whether I want to hedge with a long position again.

Jim Brown : 11/14/2008 2:50:34 PM

You should note that the Russell 2000 is still down -17 points or -3.4% while the Dow is close to zero for the day. This suggests it is not a broad based move higher and fund managers are afraid the gains wil not stick. Without bullishness in the small caps there is no lasting rally.

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 2:49:26 PM

I think we'll make it higher than yesterday's high (I still like the upside target area of 923-ish) but a test of the high would be a good time to take some profits off the table (in case we pull back deeper again as part of a larger consolidation pattern).

Jim Brown : 11/14/2008 2:48:01 PM

I would love to see another short covering move into the close that took us back over Dow 9000 ahead of the G20 meeting. Moving over 9000 would not guarantee an up week next week but hopefully it would slow down fund redemptions for the rest of November.

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 2:41:19 PM

Jane's observations of weak market internals supports my contention that we're only getting a bounce off yesterday's low and not the start of something bigger to the upside (bigger meaning a rally back above SPX 1000).

Jane Fox : 11/14/2008 2:37:26 PM

Internals have improved some what but seem to be turning back bearish. Link

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 2:25:22 PM

Looking good here--we should see at least some stair-stepping higher still.

James Brown : 11/14/2008 2:25:19 PM

Lubrizol Corp. (LZ), a specialty chemical company, might offer a trade here.

Bigger picture on the daily chart the stock is creating a huge bearish flag pattern. If LZ breaks down it is forecasting a much, much lower stock price.

However, short-term traders could try and capture a bounce toward the top of its trading range (top of the flag). Instead of trying to squeeze out every dime consider exiting early near $40.00 or its 50-dma.

Chart: Link

James Brown : 11/14/2008 2:14:08 PM

If you are looking for bullish candidates, keep an eye on biotech stock Cephalon Inc.(CEPH). Shares just broke out from a bull flag pattern. chart: Link

James Brown : 11/14/2008 2:08:27 PM

Citigroup (C) is still trading under the $10.00 level. The stock failed to reclaim the $10.00 mark on yesterday's rally and it remains under $10.00 today. C -3.3% @ 9.13.

James Brown : 11/14/2008 2:08:20 PM

Just a quick glance at EBAY. chart: Link

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 2:00:25 PM

I'm following the bounce up with a trailed stop just below the uptrend line along the lows from the mid-day low. I'll ride it for as long as it lets me but it needs to rally strong now otherwise we're in a corrective bounce that will fail lower into the close. As it stands now this is a good setup for a rally into the close. And then I'll exit my long hedge position and go into the weekend short.

James Brown : 11/14/2008 1:56:39 PM

I'm definitely seeing a lot of charts like this where there is zero follow through on Thursday's bounce and the bearish trend remains unchanged.

This is a chart of Logitech (LOGI): Link

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 1:53:17 PM

With this double pullback if we get another rally leg it will be a strong one (3rd of a 3rd wave up).

James Brown : 11/14/2008 1:48:38 PM

The bounce in Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) is really struggling. Yesterday the stock broke down past its October lows in the $153-155 zone and traded near $145 before bouncing back.

Today the stock is back under "support" around $155 and is poised to close under its 200-weekly moving average. Bears are definitely still in control here. chart: Link

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 1:41:58 PM

NDX has not achieved two equal legs up yet (1208.52) so perhaps a little more upside before the potential bearish setup. If you got long at the low and can take off a partial position I'd do that. (Keep in mind that I'm a very nervous long in this market).

Jane Fox : 11/14/2008 1:39:21 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Department of Justice said Friday it will require InBev to divest its Labatt USA unit to proceed with its $52 billion acquisition of Anheuser-Busch Cos. . The Justice Department said InBev's original transaction would have likely led to higher beer prices in the Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse, N.Y., metro areas.

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 1:38:58 PM

The bounce off the low has achieved equality with two equal legs up (SPX 886) so the bearish possibility here is that we just completed an a-b-c bounce off the low and now down we go. If you're feeling bearish about this market, this is a good spot to try a short play. If you want to hold bullish, keep your stop just below the pullback near 1:15 PM. Below that would confirm the bounce as just a bearish 3-wave correction.

James Brown : 11/14/2008 1:43:50 PM

Zurich-based UBS is really under performing. The stock is down 11.9% at $12.00. UBS is below its September and October lows and hitting new all-time lows here.

James Brown : 11/14/2008 1:43:25 PM

Quest Diagnostics (DGX) is up 1% and breaking out past its simple 50-dma. The stock is also very close to breaking out past the top of its $45.00-48.50 trading range.

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 1:31:34 PM

That was a nice shake-out move so far. Come on bulls, do your thang now. Stop just below the pullback low now (not much but every little bit helps).

James Brown : 11/14/2008 1:43:13 PM

Bucyrus Intl. (BUCY) is also showing some relative strength. The stock is up 2.4% and looks like it might breakout past the $26.00 level.

Volume yesterday in BUCY was enormous as funds make adjustments. BUCY replaced DENTSPLY in the S&P midcap 400 after trading on Thursday.

James Brown : 11/14/2008 1:44:11 PM

Gilead Sciences (GILD) is showing some relative strength. The stock is up 1.4% and trying very hard to breakout past the $48.00 level of resistance and its exponential 200-dma.

James Brown : 11/14/2008 1:42:52 PM

What got into Dell Inc. (DELL). I thought PC demand was crashing. Shares of DELL are up 8% to $11.00 today. The stock traded to an intraday low of $8.85 yesterday.

James Brown : 11/14/2008 1:42:25 PM

One of the big winners today is the Emerging markets double-short (EEV), which is up about 18% to $89.00.

Talk about volatility! This is an extremely volatile ETF.

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 1:19:50 PM

It's doing a good job at scaring the bulls here with this pullback. Another pullback to the broken downtrend line could result in SPX "walking down" the line.

James Brown : 11/14/2008 1:42:07 PM

Boeing - BA - Another trading idea for BA. If you think the market and BA is at a bottom... you could sell the December $40.00 puts for about $3.00.

Selling puts is a bullish bet. Normally the rule is never sell puts on a stock you're not willing to own or can't afford to own. If you get put the stock you are not facing a loss until BA trades under $37.00.

$40.00 = stock put to you.
- 3.00 = premium received.

Just an idea. Not a recommendation. Make sure you have an exit plan.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2008 1:03:04 PM

Markets have now retraced 50% of yesterday's rally. Link

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 1:01:42 PM

We look to be forming a 5-wave move up off the low (2-min chart) which calls for a pullback to correct the bounce but that should then be followed by another leg up. Stop needs to stay at a new daily low for now.

James Brown : 11/14/2008 1:44:40 PM

On the topic of big stocks testing support at $40.00... Boeing (BA) is down 3.79% at $41.52. The stock bounced from the $40.00 mark twice during the October volatility. Yesterday BA hit $39.07 intraday.

The last half hour is seeing a rebound. Aggressive traders willing to make bullish bets could buy BA here with a stop loss under $40.00 or a stop under $39.00. My short-term target would be the $45-46 zone. If you're really bullish you could target the 40 or 50-dma.

Short-term trade only though. I think BA may have long-term troubles as some of its customers (the airlines) face a near extinction level event (a.k.a. peak oil).

edit: can't spell today. *grin*

Jane Fox : 11/14/2008 12:57:35 PM

The FDIC wants to dedicate a portion of the$700 billion bailout fund to helping struggling homeowners. It will begin with interest rate reductions and if that is not enough extend the amortization period and if that is not enough they will "forebear" the principle. This means the principle will not be eliminated but will be deferred permanently until the owner refinances or sells the house.

The FDIC proposal, however, is running into resistance from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who has said he sees the bailout fund as money for investing in loans or buying stock in companies, not for use on spending programs.

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 12:54:16 PM

Agreed Jane. That's why I want a stop at a new daily low now. Any further drop could accelerate lower.

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 12:53:37 PM

I'm only expecting the long play to be a day trade. I think we're going to head back down next week and make new lows again. It will probably be a bottoming process that completely frustrates the bulls into giving up finding a bottom. Then we'll make one.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2008 12:53:35 PM

... and the VIX is still hovering at daily highs. Rally going to the moon? - ain't gunna happen.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2008 12:54:14 PM

Keene, that does happen at times for sure but the AD line is still below -2000 and AD volume is still falling so any rally will certainly not have have legs under it.

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 12:49:10 PM

Jane, the internals will catch up with the rally (wink).

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 12:48:32 PM

SPX needs to recapture 882 and hold above it.

Jim Brown : 11/14/2008 12:47:59 PM

RIMM Alert - $40 is long term support dating back to Q4-2006 and I would be a buyer here today at the current price of $40.50. I would use the 2010 $50 LEAP Call YKD-AJ ($10.15) or maybe the slightly cheaper 2010 $60 LEAP Call YKD-AW at ($7.20).

Jane Fox : 11/14/2008 12:45:45 PM

The market may be staging a rally in the last 1/2 hour or so but I'm not buying it, literally. The internals are still very bearish. Link

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 12:44:53 PM

If you went long on this pullback now pull your stop up just below today's low--it has no business going back down if we're going to get the next rally leg.

Jim Brown : 11/14/2008 12:43:48 PM

RIMM - I am surprised RIMM is doing so poorly today. Just yesterday the company said they did not expect any material fallout from the current economic weakness. The Blackberry has become an essential tool for business and they believe this "intensive" period requires even more business communication not less. The RIM CEO said they would not be completely immune to an economic downturn but the addition of new products like the BlackBerry Storm would help them maintain momentum.

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 12:34:25 PM

Need to hurry up and get this rally going before Paulson starts speaking in 90 minutes. Certainly will crash and burn as soon as he opens his mouth.

Barry could be right on this.

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 12:29:22 PM

Got the new minor low so this is the setup for the next rally leg. But it has to rally NOW!

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 12:19:48 PM

With SPX tagging its broken downtrend line near 871, this is the place to try a long play. Buy support with a stop just below it (I'd use a stop below 865, the 50% retracement). NDX is a heads up that something more bearish is happening but going with the SPX chart it's a good setup for another rally leg. The short-short term pattern suggests one more minor new low to set it up.

James Brown : 11/14/2008 12:14:29 PM

Research In Motion (RIMM) is really under performing. The stock is off 8.4% and retesting round-number, psychological support at the $40.00 mark. Yesterday's new 52-week intraday low was $38.55.

James Brown : 11/14/2008 12:11:36 PM

The October retail sales numbers failed to help Amazon.com (AMZN). The stock is accelerating lower and under performing the market with a 6.7% drop.

This makes yesterday's move look like a failed rally pattern at the $45.00 mark.

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 12:11:28 PM

NDX has already slipped back below its downtrend line from November 4th and is closing in on its 50% retracement at 1173.78 (which was also the pullback low near 3:00 PM yesterday).

James Brown : 11/14/2008 12:08:56 PM

I am growing concerned about the lack of follow through on yesterday's rally.

Look at this chart for Apple Inc. (AAPL). Yesterday looked like a possible bullish double-bottom. Today it's a failure at resistance and the previous trend (lower) could resume. chart: Link

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 12:07:09 PM

The broken downtrend line for SPX is now closer to 871 so watch for support, or not, at that level.

James Brown : 11/14/2008 12:02:30 PM

Hmm... it's interesting that Google (GOOG) is actually green. Shares are up $1.38 or 0.44% to $313.40.

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 11:53:29 AM

Pretty amazing when a -4% day for NDX is only a little more than a 38% retracement of the previous day's rally.

James Brown : 11/14/2008 11:29:05 AM

Looking at the sector indices.... everything is red! I don't see any sector that's currently positive.

The worst performers are:
Disk drives (DDX) -5.6%
Networking (NWX) -4.4%
Retail (RLX) -4.2%
Airlines (XAL) -4.1%
Oil (OIX) -4.2%
Nat.Gas (XNG) -4.8%

Banking (BKX) -3.4%
Broker-Dealers (XB) -4%

James Brown : 11/14/2008 11:22:47 AM

There is NO follow through in oil prices. Bears are still in control.

Remember this chart of the USO I posted two days ago? chart: Link

Here is an updated chart for today. Chart: Link

James Brown : 11/14/2008 11:14:02 AM

Yuck! Check out a 60-minute chart of Microsoft (MSFT). The software titan does not look very healthy here. This chart makes it look like a bearish candidate. Question is, "will the lows in the $18-19 zone hold?" chart: Link

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 11:09:08 AM

Playing with some Fib projections for the rally from yesterday, if SPX finds support at its broken downtrend line (from November 4th) at 872 then two equal legs up from yesterday's pullback near 3:00 PM would have it rallying back up to 924. That's also the level for two equal legs up for a double zigzag wave count--two a-b-c's separated by an x-wave and shown in pink on the 10-min chart. But a break back below the trend line and the 50% retracement at 865.80 would start to have me thinking more bearishly. Link

James Brown : 11/14/2008 11:07:34 AM

Jane's comments on Gold were interesting. I went back to my chart I posted the other day in the monitor. The GLD has bounced back to what should be resistance.

The question is will gold rally from a possible bullish-double bottom that mirrors a bearish double-top in the U.S. dollar? Or will the GLD continue low following its breakdown?

Chart: Link

James Brown : 11/14/2008 10:58:39 AM

If you're curious, here's a chart with the Fib tool on the NASDAQ composite's bounce: Link

Jim Brown : 11/14/2008 10:58:04 AM

What would a day be without a couple hundred points of volatility? I am actually encouraged we are only down -240. If tht 8600 support breaks the next stop could be 84, 82, even 8000.

James Brown : 11/14/2008 10:52:04 AM

Just for fun I threw up a Fib retracement tool on the DJIA's range.

Hmm.... how convenient. The bounce yesterday stalled right at the 50% line.

This probably supports the bearish camp...chart: Link

Jane Fox : 11/14/2008 10:48:03 AM

Here are the overnight charts. All markets have broken the ON lows and both the S&P and NDX futures have actually reached 38.20%. Link

James Brown : 11/14/2008 10:45:59 AM

We're seeing some profit taking after the 900-point bounce in the DJIA yesterday.

Here's a chart with the Fibonacci retracements listed for the DJIA and where it might bounce.

Chart: Link

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 10:45:40 AM

If SPX holds below 882 the next support level is 877.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2008 10:44:15 AM

Internals are talking loud and clear and it is all bearish. Link

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 10:38:56 AM

After a strong bounce yesterday (along with everybody else), semiconductors are particularly weak and a big drag on NDX. SMH has already retraced more than 50% of yesterday's rally and appears headed for 62% (17.36). The bearish thing I see about its pattern is that this morning's decline for SMH looks like a 5-wave move. That suggests a trend change already back to the downside and is a heads up for the rest of the market. Bonds continue to rally.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2008 10:36:27 AM

Here is your chart of gold and I certainly do not see anything that tells me China is buying Gold. Mind you though I have also been reading that it is very very hard to purchase the real stuff, it is just not available on the open market and there is a real disconnect between the futures and real gold. I'll see if I can find more on this. Link

Jane Fox : 11/14/2008 10:30:03 AM

I am reading that China is considering a plan to diversify some of its massive foreign exchange reserves to gold.. China fears the US government will have to fund its huge federal deficit by printing money or issuing huge amount of debt which will devalue the US dollar and government backed bonds and is beginning to see gold as an attractive place to park some of these funds. They see it as a real, tangible asset that will not lose its value over time - in stark contrast to the greenback, which is becoming more disconnected from economic realities as more bills are printed.

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 10:29:48 AM

Another level to watch, if SPX does drop below 882, is the broken downtrend line from November 4th, currently near 877. The bulls would obviously like to see a retest of the trend line hold. That would also be a 38% retracement of yesterday's rally.

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 10:16:42 AM

As a reminder, SPX 882 is an important Gann level (square to 1005 and 768 on the Square of Nine chart). Not holding above it this morning would be bearish.

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 10:11:25 AM

Drawing the same uptrend line on NDX as I have on the SPX 5-min chart it has already broken below it and found it to be resistance on a bounce back up to it. Now starting to drop back down harder. So the next level to watch is where the move down from yesterday would have two equal legs down--NDX 1187.84/SPX 885.63.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2008 10:09:08 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumer sentiment rose in November from the prior month, though it remains at relatively low levels, according to a media report on the University of Michigan/Reuters index released Friday. The index reached 57.9 in early November from 57.6 in late October. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting a November reading of 56.5.

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 10:08:19 AM

And the bounce in NDX looks pathetic and corrective. It's telling me we're not going to get much higher for this bounce. So we've got a tug of war between the blue chips and techs. Small caps are right in the middle wondering who to follow.

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 10:07:15 AM

NDX is a real drag this morning, down -2.1% while the blue chips are down less than 1%.

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 10:05:55 AM

The SPX 5-min chart shows a narrow parallel up-channel with the Fib projection at 924 crossing the top of the channel near 10:30 AM, so about 25 minutes. It would make a good short play setup if it got up there and failed. Something I'm watching if we get additional rally from here. Link

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 9:57:42 AM

If the market manages to push higher from here the first upside Fib projection (for the corrective wave count idea for the bounce off yesterday's low) is SPX 924.

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 9:53:59 AM

The market is trying to bounce back up and close this morning's gaps but so far looks weak. If the bounce is followed by another drop lower I'll get some downside targets based on two equal legs down from yesterday's highs.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2008 9:48:05 AM

AD line is not improving at all but the VIX is making new daily lows and so far that seems to be helping out the bulls.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2008 9:41:54 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The current administration took action Friday to strengthen government oversight of derivatives trading and close the loopholes that have allowed these complex products to avoid scrutiny. In a release, the President's Working Group on Financial Markets said their near-term top priority was to oversee the successful implementation of central counterparty services for credit default swaps. The leaders also set sweeping goals to improve the transparency of the market for credit default swaps and other over-the-counter derivatives. The working group consists of top officials from Treasury, the Federal Reserve, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The agencies signed a memorandum of understanding to close the loopholes in their oversight of the complex products that are at the heart of the recent financial market meltdown.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2008 9:34:08 AM

AD line is a bearish but not overly so -835.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2008 9:26:18 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Citigroup plans to lay off at least 10,000 employees in its investment bank and other divisions throughout the world, starting this week, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday, citing unnamed people familiar with the matter. Chief Executive Vikram Pandit and his deputies instructed officials to slash their budgets for employee compensation by at least 25%, the report said. Meanwhile, the lender is also notifying some of its credit-card customers that their interest rates are being raised by an average of three percentage points, the report said. Citigroup is one of the nation's largest issuers of credit cards, with 54 million active accounts. The report cited an unnamed source as saying the rate increases would apply to less than 20% of Citigroup's card portfolio. Separately, Citi said a Wall Street Journal report Thursday that Win Bischoff is under consideration to become the company's chairman is "completely erroneous." The newspaper, however, said it stood by the report and that the move is still possible.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2008 9:25:17 AM

Nokia warned today that cell phone sales will fall next year industry wide due to consumers pulling back around the world. Nokia noted 4th quarter industry volumes will be lower than previously expected and that 2009 volume will be lower still.

Nokia expects its market share to remain positive but of course it is a market share of a steadying decreasing market.

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 9:23:07 AM

Bonds got a big move up off their overnight lows near 5:00 AM. I'm not sure what caused the buying but it should be of some concern for equity bulls as it might be the start of another allocation program--out of stocks and into bonds.

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 9:20:55 AM

It was a relatively calm overnight session but a steady bleed lower for most of the session. The low for ES is 888.25 (down about -20 points), made following the dismal retail sales number. Maybe I'll get my wish and see a quick plunge to SPX 881 so that we can then get a strong rally back up to about 935 (to create two equal legs up from yesterday's pullback near 3:00 PM and complete a double zigzag wave count). I put in my order for that move but I'm not sure the market is taking orders at the moment.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2008 9:19:58 AM

EU statistics published today show the euro zone shrank by 0.2 percent in both the second and third quarters compared to the first three months of the year.

Two of the region's largest economies - Germany and Italy -- are in recession already while France has narrowly escaped, growing just 0.1 percent in the third quarter after

So far, euro economies have not seen the jobless rate surge - but the EU executive Commission estimates that it will rise steadily over coming months.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2008 9:14:05 AM

Taking a look at the overnight session in relation to each markets respective previous day ranges, all have only retraced 23.60%, a relatively narrow retracement. I see this as bullish.

If the markets continued their trek upwards overnight there would be nothing left for the intraday session and the bears could easily take over. Since the bulls didn?t use a lot of their arsenal overnight they will be stronger intraday. Link

Jane Fox : 11/14/2008 9:06:18 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Central banks around the world stand ready to take additional actions as needed to restore financial market stability and ease the global credit crunch, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke said Friday.

"Policymakers will remain in close contact, monitor developments closely, and stand ready to take additional steps should conditions warrant," Bernanke said in a speech at the European Central Bank in Frankfurt.

Central banks must remain vigilant because, despite some fleeting signs of improvement in credit-market conditions, market volatility and the latest reports on economic conditions make clear that challenges remain for the global economy, Bernanke said.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2008 9:05:40 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Falling for a fourth straight month, U.S. retail sales plunged a record 2.8% in October as sales of autos and gasoline plummeted, the Commerce Department estimated Friday.

Excluding the 5.5% drop in auto purchases, retail sales fell a record 2.2%.

The figures were worse than expected, with economists surveyed by MarketWatch looking for the headline sales number to fall 2.3% and sales excluding autos expected to drop 1.7%.

Falling gasoline prices accounted for about half the decline in total sales in October. Sales at gas stations fell a record 12.7% as the average price at the pump plunged. Sales excluding gas dropped 1.5%, the biggest decline in three years.

Excluding both autos and gas, sales fell

Keene Little : 11/14/2008 12:50:53 AM

Friday's pivot table: Link

For a better finish to the bounce off Thursday's low I'm hoping we'll see a quick spike down Friday morning, ideally down to about SPX 880, followed by a strong rally back up to the 935 area. That could be a bit much to ask but with this whippy market and big moves it might not be that much of a challenge. Whether it plays out that way or not I like the 935 area for an upside target and reversal back down, shown on the 120-min chart: Link

There is a Fib projection and retracement in the 935 area and as shown with the dotted uptrend line we could see a retest for a kiss goodbye. If it manages to rally higher than 935 we could see a rally up to the downtrend line from October 14th, currently near 990.

But if SPX turns back down, whether from here or after first making it a little higher, then I'll be looking for either a pullback before heading higher again (pink) or a choppy decline in a descending wedge (dark red). This descending wedge idea makes sense to me because of all the 3-wave price action. Even today's rally, as sharp as it is, has some corrective qualities to it rather than impulsive. This suggests we are not at the beginning of a rally leg (above 990).

But in the end it doesn't matter a whole lot which scenario is playing out. If I'm right about the need for more work to the downside, either of the two scenarios ends up near the October 2002 low of 768 by the end of November/beginning of December, shown on the daily chart: Link

While we're nearing the point where the short side is going to be the riskier side I think the long side remains the riskier side. Until SPX gets above the November 4th high near 1008 we are in a bearish price pattern and I would look to short the bounces rather than buy the pullbacks. Surprises (other than short-covering rallies) will remains to the downside for a little longer.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2008 12:09:23 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey Link

My 4-week Avg. purchases falls to 281.9. 12-week Avg. falls to 315.3.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 11:55:24 PM

This is about what it "felt like" at around 12:00 $BPNDX Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 11:50:37 PM

Dorsey/Wright's BPOTC reverses back down to "bear confirmed" at 18.12% (20% chart) from "bull alert."

StockCharts.com's $BPCOMPQ Link would reverse at "bull correction" status.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2008 11:42:20 PM

SPX saw 1 new high and 142 new lows on Thursday. On 10/10 SPX's NH/NL measure was 1:356

RUT.X 4 new highs and 395 new lows. On 10/24 RUT.X NH/NL measure was 1:502.

OI Technical Staff : 11/13/2008 9:59:59 PM

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