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Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 6:31:13 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 6:08:01 PM

Major Global Indexes, Currenices, USO/oil, GLD/gold, HUI.X, OIX.X and XLF Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 4:47:26 PM

CI, AET, HUM, UNH ... daily interval bar chart montage Link

Bearish-looking close in CI below $12.50. Could gather in AET, HUM and UNH. WCG looks to have stalled Friday (closed GCJ-KU) today!

Keene Little : 11/17/2008 4:28:24 PM

Following up on the daily chart I posted earlier today, and matching the weekly chart just posted, we could be close to finishing the leg down to complete the 5th wave in a descending wedge from the October 14th high. It is very common for the 5th wave to equal the 1st wave, which was the leg down from May to the July low. Using the Fib projection tool in QCharts I'm showing the projection for equality at 804.51 when projected down from October 14th: Link

Two equal legs down from Friday afternoon (needs to be a 3-wave move down as the final leg inside a wedge) is at 814.78 so we've got a potential support zone in the 804-815 area. If the market continues to decline tomorrow we could get there before the end of the day and I'll hopefully be able to zero in on a good level to start watching for support. We could now be very close to the setup for the rally into next year. The new low would probably be met with silence from the bullish crowd who will instead be muttering something about being afraid there is no bottom. Then we'll start some buying.

Keene Little : 11/17/2008 4:07:41 PM

James mentioned that BAC is down to a level not seen since 1995-1996 (3:58 PM post). There's an EW pattern for the broader indices that call for a decline to their equivalent 1996 levels as well and it's what I've been showing on the SPX weekly chart for next year (606): Link

James Brown : 11/17/2008 4:01:21 PM

Another bearish candidate???... UnitedHealth Group (UNH) broke down under the $20.00 mark this morning. The afternoon bounce failed at the $20.00 level and now shares are accelerating lower.

Keene Little : 11/17/2008 3:59:44 PM

With today's price action I can at least squeeze the key levels a little closer together. A move back above SPX 900 would suggest we're going to get the run up to 950 to finish wave-E of the large sideways 4th wave correction. A drop below this morning's low near 850 would suggest we're going to drop down to a new low, as per the dark red (possibly pink) wave count. SPX 60-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 3:58:58 PM

Wellcare Health Plans (WCG) $9.47 +1.17% .... juuuuuuuuust under your -50.00% ($9.52)

James Brown : 11/17/2008 3:58:53 PM

FYI:... BAC down 8.4% and hitting levels not seen since 1995-1996 around $15.00.

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 3:57:50 PM

Humana (HUM) $29.52 -3.68% ... under its 10/31/08 close ($29.59), but still holding your 0.00% 10/10/08 low of $29.01.

James Brown : 11/17/2008 3:57:15 PM

Hess Corp. (HES), an oil and gas stock, is really under performing today. The stock is down 7.4% at $51.40. The MACD is nearing a new sell signal. It's a volatile stock but it might be a bearish candidate. There doesn't appear to be any support until the $43-41 zone. The P&F chart is forecasting a $31 target. FYI: Last week's high near $65.00 was a failed rally at its 38.2% Fib retracement of the Sept-Oct. sell-off.

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 3:56:25 PM

Cigna (CI) $12.37 -4.47% ... to the close. Under your -38.2% of 12.50.

Keene Little : 11/17/2008 3:46:40 PM

A bounce back up to the broken downtrend line near 864 would be a short play setup but again it may only be good for a move down to 854.

James Brown : 11/17/2008 3:46:29 PM

Mastercard Inc. (MA) is looking weak here down 5% to $136.50. The recent failed rally at $150.00 might be another opportunity for bearish positions. Hmm... the P&F chart only points to a $122 target, near its October lows. The bottom of the bearish channel is closer to $100.

James Brown : 11/17/2008 3:43:57 PM

If you're looking for more momentum in your trades don't forget ETFs like the double-long DDM, which moves twice the inverse of the DJIA. The DDM has options available at $1.00 increments.

Keene Little : 11/17/2008 3:47:10 PM

Took long enough. SPX is now breaking down and has broken its uptrend line from last Thursday's low. I don't yet know if we'll get just another leg down to match the one from today's high (SPX 854 is the downside target in that case) or something more. It's hard to trust these moves so day trade it for now if you're trying new trades.

Keene Little : 11/17/2008 3:35:37 PM

Today's choppy price pattern has me looking both ways for traffic but I get the feeling I should be looking up for the piano coming down.

Keene Little : 11/17/2008 3:27:19 PM

The last little push higher here may have finished the 2-hour consolidation pattern which should lead to another drop lower, perhaps a selloff into the close. If it rallies instead then the price pattern becomes even uglier and confusing and I would want to watch it further to see what can be deciphered from a leg up into the close.

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 3:20:16 PM

YM 8,440 ... holding tough at 38.2% dynamic.

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 3:11:06 PM

XOM and CVX's November "Max Pain" theory tabulation is $70.00.

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 3:09:28 PM

CVX $72.33 -0.48% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 3:09:12 PM

XOM $75.40 +2.42% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 3:08:55 PM

USO $45.09

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 3:08:31 PM

YM 8,435

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 3:07:03 PM

YM short stop alert! 8,408.

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 3:05:41 PM

YM short ... stop goes 8,408. Target is 8,310

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 3:04:39 PM

YM short alert! here at 8,370

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 3:02:14 PM

USO $45.09 -2.46% ... 15-minute interval, now with QCharts' WKLY Pivot Levels turned on Link

Keene Little : 11/17/2008 2:57:39 PM

The sideways chop that the market has been doing for the past 90 minutes looks bearish. I'm thinking we're going to see a breakdown.

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 2:48:49 PM

USO $45.32 -1.86% ... 60-minute intervals with my MNTHLY Pivot retracement (dark purple) and QRTRLY Pivot retracement (dark green) Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 2:44:25 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Keene Little : 11/17/2008 2:35:23 PM

SPX is now nearing its uptrend line from last Thursday, sitting near 851.50 now.

James Brown : 11/17/2008 2:34:24 PM

Casino stock Wynn Resorts (WYNN) might be another bearish candidate. The stock is down 7.7% and breaking round-number support at the $40.00 mark. I will note that volume is incredibly light today. The P&F chart is forecasting a drop toward $28.00 near its October lows.

James Brown : 11/17/2008 2:27:32 PM

Another high-dollar stock, Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) is collapsing. Shares are down 12% to $130.00. This is a follow through decline on Friday's close under the $150.00 level. I would not chase it here but the next level of support visible on the weekly chart appears to be the $86 region (although I'd expect some support at the $100 mark). The P&F chart is bearish with a $102 target.

James Brown : 11/17/2008 2:24:39 PM

Ouch! Baidu.com (BIDU) is down 25% to $135.00 after a negative TV show in China called some of BIDU's business practices "questionable". You can read the Barron's story here: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 2:22:20 PM

USO alert! $45.17 -2.20% ...

James Brown : 11/17/2008 1:57:42 PM

Tenaris (TS), a steel pipe producer, might be a bullish candidate. The stock is out performing today. More importantly the stock broke out from a pennant formation and now it's nearing a breakout over $24.00. Chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 1:48:43 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $45.71 -1.01% ... session lows. WKLY Pivot ($48.22) untested. QRTRLY S2 in play ($45.17). If violated, WKLY S1 $43.19.

James Brown : 11/17/2008 1:46:10 PM

.... the captured oil tanker is three times the size of a U.S. aircraft carrier....

James Brown : 11/17/2008 1:45:19 PM

Here are a few more stocks that are out performing the market today. This is also a list of stocks that currently have a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern...ESRX, ALE, CPO, ERF, ALXN, FCN, PHH, CXW.

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 1:44:46 PM

Russia plans to cut 2009 poultry, pork import quotas ... Reuters Story Link

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 1:42:26 PM

Freddie Mac says it sees 30-year mortgages holding at 6.2% for at least the next 5 quarters. It sees home sales continuing to fall until the 2nd quarter of 2009 but then stabilizing somewhat.

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 1:38:08 PM

You just can't trust Mr. Market when the AD line is below 0. The internals gave the bulls hope then snatched it away as easy as taking a rattle from a baby.

Keene Little : 11/17/2008 1:37:52 PM

An uptrend line from Thursday through this morning's low is currently near SPX 859. If we get another leg down in the current pullback that line should hold if there's to be more upside. A break below 856 would be a heads up that we'll probably see this morning's low break. It's a tough call here as to which way this market is going to head into the close.

James Brown : 11/17/2008 1:36:22 PM

Looking for more out performing stocks today I see that Nordic American Tanker Shipping Ltd. (NAT) is up 5.1% after breaking out past technical resistance at its 100-dma, 200-dma and exponential 200-dma this morning. I don't see any specific news to account for the rally.

However I will point out that tanker stocks DRYS, EXM, and NM are up 4% to 5% each. Yet three or four of their tanking stock rivals are down 4%, 7% and 11% (PRGN, FREE, ULTR). I don't think the Somali pirate news is any factor except for the company who's ship has been captured.

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 1:34:53 PM

Disclosure: Prior to profile, I held bullish position in Tyson Foods (TSN).

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 1:34:05 PM

Swing trade long alert! ... for 1/8 position in shares of Tyson Foods (TSN) at the offer of $5.00.

Stop goes $4.50. Target $7.50.

James Brown : 11/17/2008 1:28:52 PM

Home improvement retailer Lowe's Companies (LOW) is doing well today. The stock is up 8.5% to $19.82 following its earnings report this morning. LOW beat estimates by 5 cents but guided lower going forward. Maybe shares are up because traders were expecting worse news on the guidance. What caught my eye was the bullish engulfing candlestick pattern although a quick look at the intraday chart shows that LOW still has resistance near $20.00.

James Brown : 11/17/2008 1:24:18 PM

Oil & Gas stock EOG Resources (EOG) might be a bullish candidate for your watch list.

The stock is trying hard to breakout from its bearish channel. Currently shares are trying to break higher from a $75-85 trading range. Very short-term it almost looks like a bull-flag pattern. A move over $86.00 may be a bullish entry point. My concern would be possible overhead resistance at the 100-dma or exponential 200-dma. The P&F chart is currently bullish with a $110 target. Here's a chart: Link

James Brown : 11/17/2008 1:16:59 PM

Hmm... I am curious on MON. I don't see any news but chemical and fertilizer company Monsanto Co. (MON) is out performing the market and its peers. The stock is up 3.7% to $76.80. The short-term trend remains very bearish and there is no follow through in the rest of the sector.

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 1:14:15 PM

Somali pirates seize supertanker loaded with crude ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 1:07:54 PM

Still has me more defensive/bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 1:07:40 PM

After gapping below WKLY Pivot at the open, TNX.X unable to trade back up (selling in the benchmark bond) to its WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 1:06:33 PM

NDX/QQQQ, SMH and RUT.X have not seen trade at respective WKLY Pivots.

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 12:55:55 PM

Ok I don't want to put a wet blanket on all the bullishness out there but the AD line is still under 0 albeit a lot better than the earlier low of -2161.

Keene Little : 11/17/2008 12:54:59 PM

Pushing to a new daily high negates the bearish setup and now points to the possibility that we are in fact going to get another rally leg back above Friday's high. That's an early call here but so the odds for that have improved with what appears to be an impulsive move up off this morning's low. This morning's low must hold on any pullback this afternoon in order to keep the bullish potential alive.

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 12:53:43 PM

Now the bulls are cooking. All internals are in sync. Link

Keene Little : 11/17/2008 12:50:51 PM

If instead of dropping lower from here we see a brief consolidation followed by new daily highs then we've got the possibility for a more bullish wave pattern developing. Jury is still out deliberating about what today's bounce means.

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 12:50:11 PM

Bitumen is the sands that contain the Crude in the Canada Oil Sands fields in Northern Alberta.

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 12:45:02 PM

dj (earlier)- PETRO-CANADA DELAYS FORT HILLS OIL SANDS PROJECT

The Calgary-based company pushes back the final investment decision for the oil sands mine after costs soar more than 50%. The project's upgrader, a costly facility that would process the sludgy bitumen into a lighter crude, could be canceled.

PCZ $20.19 -3.02% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 12:43:19 PM

dj (earlier)- WHITE HOUSE WANTS AUTO FIRMS TO USE DOE FUNDS

White House spokeswoman says automakers shouldn't seek additional funding from TARP when funds are available under a $25 billion Energy Department loan program, and says opening TARP to sectors beyond the financial sector would be a "slippery slope."

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 12:42:34 PM

dj (earlier)- KEY DOLLAR LIBOR EDGES HIGHER AGAIN

The cost of borrowing longer-term U.S. dollars in the interbank market moves higher, marking the third day in succession the key three-month rate has risen since reaching a low of 2.1325% on Nov. 12.

Keene Little : 11/17/2008 12:41:21 PM

It's possible the bounce is going to top right around here. The short term pattern of the move up is starting to look like an ending pattern. If this is just a bounce to correct the decline from Friday it's a good place to try a short play.

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 12:32:16 PM

INDU 8,500 +0.03% ...

FXY $102.64 +0.02% ...

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 12:23:52 PM

Another 8499 test yet the bears are able to hold back the bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 12:20:24 PM

RVX.X 72.99 +1.36%
VXN.X 67.04 +1.49%
VIX.X 66.49 +0.27% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 12:19:39 PM

VXO.X 69.04 -1.80% ... slips back below MONTHLY Pivot. My tabulated WKLY Pivot 66.54. QCharts' 65.51.

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 12:16:22 PM

DOW futures tagged 8499 and was turned back. Another run at this resistance (ON highs) should break through.

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 12:14:21 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 12:12:15 PM

Here are your overnight charts showing the DOW futures (YM) has now tagged its ON high and the NQ has already broken through its ON high. Link

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 12:08:47 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday charged Dallas Mavericks owner and Internet entrepreneur Mark Cuban with insider trading. The SEC alleges Cuban in June 2004 sold 600,000 shares of Internet search engine company Mamma.com Inc. on inside information that the company would initiate a stock offering. The charges allege Cuban knew that the offering would be at a discount and it would be dilutive to existing shareholders.

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 11:58:04 AM

Internals have improved substantially. Link

Keene Little : 11/17/2008 11:55:53 AM

If I assume for the moment (yes, I know how to spell assume, wink) that we're only going to get a bounce at best to correct the decline from Friday and then proceed lower again, I've updated the SPX 120-min chart to reflect the idea presented earlier on the daily chart that we could be close to a tradable bottom: Link

First, if we get a rally back above 917 then I will obviously have to go back to the idea that another rally leg to 950 would be the likely path and then start the 5th wave down from there (not shown on the chart). Otherwise a continuation lower will likely find support in the 800-810 area and it could be the final low (dark red). The pink wave count shows the 4th wave ended on November 4th and we're in a descending wedge for the 5th wave which calls for another up-down sequence after making the next low.

This will be the tricky part--figuring out which low could be the last. But notice there's not a whole lot of difference between the two lows and that's why I will be covering the rest of my short positions if we make a new low shown in dark red. While it could be a tad early to buy it there I would not want to risk being short any longer.

There is the possibility for a rip-snorter of a decline that smashes through the October 2002 low and that's why I'll remain a little cautious about the long side. But I see the possibility for a crash leg lower as a lower probability event at this time.

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 11:34:33 AM

Short interest for NYSE fell 123K for the month of Oct and for the NASDAQ I fell 255K which indicate any rally from this point on will not be driven by a short squeeze.

Keene Little : 11/17/2008 11:15:14 AM

A rally today might only be a correction of the leg down from Friday so if the bounce continues watch the Fib retracements for resistance. SPX 38%, 50% and 62% are 874.92, 882.93 and 890.94.

Keene Little : 11/17/2008 11:11:43 AM

SPX 847 continues to hold and as long as that's true there remains the possibility for a new rally leg. But a break down from the current bounce to a new daily low now would be bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 11:04:14 AM

EIA: Nat Gas Inventory (from Friday) Link ... showed a build of 62 Bcf.

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 11:02:38 AM

The bears still have a firm hold on this market today. AD volume is making new daily lows but I do see the AD line is not making new daily lows and the VIX is not making new daily highs. Soooooo wait until you see something a little more bullish than the internals are getting "less bearish."

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 11:01:25 AM

Philadelphia Fed Survey: US Q4 GDP to fall by 2.9%
US Q1 2009 GDP to fall by 1.1%
US unemployment rate to 7.6% by Q3 2009
Core US CPI to average 2% in 2009, 2010

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 10:57:03 AM

Current CLOSED and OPEN/active MM profiles that I've made at this Link

Keene Little : 11/17/2008 10:49:58 AM

I noticed I cut off the right side of the SPX daily chart so here's a better chart: Link

Keene Little : 11/17/2008 10:47:13 AM

A trader friend reminded me of a post back on March 17th and how we could be playing out the same pattern now. That was the day we made a bottom and it's why I think it's important to review the setup then and what we're seeing now. It may be helpful to print this out and study it later as it's a very good example of why I look for fractals. This is the daily chart I had posted on 3/17: Link

And this was my comment on the chart:
"A thought occurred to me as I looked at the various indices and how we could be very close to putting in a significant low...I've kept the pink wave count showing a big sideways consolidation into April but my preferred count is the dark red one."

"The red count now shows the 4th wave correction ended on Feb 1st, not the end of February, and the choppy decline since that time has been a descending wedge for the 5th wave. Inside this descending wedge we might need only one more leg down to finish it and bottom around 1260 (staying above the mid line of the parallel down-channel and maintaining the bullish divergence at the new low). By this count we could see a bottom on Monday or Tuesday and then start a rally into the end of opex (and well beyond)."

Looking back now, the bottom was in fact that Monday, March 17th (at 1257) and we got a rally up to a high of 1440 in May. Now we look at the current daily chart: Link . If you hold the charts side by side you will see the similarities in the patterns (Feb 1 - Mar 17 and Oct 14 - present). The quick rally into the October 14th high may have been the end of the 4th wave and not on November 4th as I had previously.

Since October 14th we have been chopping lower and may be hammering out another descending wedge pattern for the 5th wave, just as we saw back in March. This suggests only one more leg down to a minor new low to finish the wave count (shown in dark red). It takes a break above Friday's high to tell us the pink wave count is in play otherwise a continuation lower this week could soon give us a tradable bottom.

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 10:37:36 AM

AET-MX stop/target .... N/A with target of $15.00

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 10:34:21 AM

HMO.X 797.60 -2.16% ....

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 10:33:56 AM

VIX.X 68.96 +3.99% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 10:33:30 AM

Swing trade put alert! ... for one (1) of the Aetna AET Jan. $22.50 Puts (AET-MX) at the offer of $3.20.

AET $22.39 -4.02% ...

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 10:26:35 AM

Markets are now following the AD line and volume's lead and making new daily lows as the VIX makes new daily highs.

Keene Little : 11/17/2008 10:24:23 AM

So much for this morning's low holding. Keep an eye on SPX 847 to see if it holds as that's the Fib projection for the c-wave down as shown on my previous 10-min chart. It's why I'm saying a break below 845 would be bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 10:24:06 AM

Today's Global Economic Calendar Link

Japan follows EU into recession with 2nd consecutive quarter of negative GDP.

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 10:24:00 AM

The WSJ reported the Goldman Sachs's CEO, Lloyd Blankfein, has asked the board to not grant bonuses this year.

I would like to ask why he had to even ask. Why would the board have even considered bonuses this year? Aren't bonuses supposed to be given because you did a good job or that the company was profitable and you want to compensate the employees for helping out. Why in heavens name would they even consider bonuses?

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 10:13:58 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Note: At Friday's close the NYSE's 5-day NH/NL ratio did see a 3-box reversal back lower to <=2.00%.

Keene Little : 11/17/2008 10:13:42 AM

If this morning's low holds (SPX 856.13), the projection up to 950.36 shown on the 60-min chart is for two equal legs up from November 13th (labeled in pink) and that would finish the 4th wave correction (applause, cheer, woohoo). That would then set up the 5th wave decline to new annual lows. Link

I'm entertaining a couple of ideas for how the decline might finish if it drops down from here instead of after another rally leg higher. While I show a down-up-down sequence in dark red there might be only one more leg down to a minor new low before setting up the rally into next year. I'm working on a chart to show that possibility since it will mean the bottom could be very close now (if we drop from here).

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 9:59:27 AM

NQ (NDX futures) is the first market to test its overnight highs (TF may as well but it is on a 20 minute delay). Link

Keene Little : 11/17/2008 9:58:12 AM

SPX dropped down to, and slightly below, its broken downtrend line from November 4th but is so far holding at it (near 860). The price pattern from Friday morning's high could be an expanded flat correction (a-b-c pullback) which means the new high Friday afternoon was simply part of the correction. This is the pink count shown on the 10-min chart and it calls for another rally leg to 950 if we see two equal legs up from the November 13th low. Stay aware of that potential if you're short, especially with November puts. It takes a break below 845 to negate that bullish possibility. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 9:57:47 AM

OIX.X 85.89 +0.75% ...
XNG.X 399.39 +0.65% ... sector winners early

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 9:49:49 AM

As Keene noted, it is a bit whippy out there today.

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 9:46:17 AM

CI $12.79 -1.23%
WCG $9.29 -0.74%
AET $23.00 -1.41%
HUM $30.56 -0.22%
UNH $19.50 -2.59%

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 9:45:52 AM

TRIN is climbing to 1.35 reflecting the sour Ad line and volume.

Keene Little : 11/17/2008 9:44:00 AM

And now a sell program to smack anyone who tried to buy that little spike up. A bit whippy in the first few minutes.

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 9:41:59 AM

VIX is making new daily lows giving an old Bronx cheer to the AD line. Markets seem to be listening to the VIX so far.

Keene Little : 11/17/2008 9:41:41 AM

Nice little buy program there that smacked anyone who tried to short the market at the open. But will it hold?

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 9:41:32 AM

HMO.X 801.70 -1.65% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 9:41:10 AM

VIX.X 68.98 +4.02% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 9:40:56 AM

Swing trade call exit alert! for the one (1) Wellcare Health Plans WCG Nov. $7.50 Call (GCJ-KU) at the bid of $2.00.

WCG $9.11 -0.25% ...

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 9:36:00 AM

AD line (the pulse of our patient the stock market) is -800, not very good.

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 9:25:00 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities rebounded part of the way in October from September's sharp weather-related slump, the Federal Reserve reported Monday. Industrial production increased 1.3% in October after falling a revised 3.7% in September, which was the biggest decline in 60 years. Excluding energy, industrial output fell 0.1% in October. Industrial production was down 4.1% compared with a year earlier. The rebound in output was stronger than the 0.5% gain expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Motor vehicle production fell 3.5%, with assemblies dropping to a 17-year low.

Keene Little : 11/17/2008 9:24:00 AM

There hasn't been much good economic news this morning and the market has a lot to deal with as far as trying to get another rally leg going. Equity futures had a fairly wide trading range last night and just tested the low end of it. Looks like a concerted effort to get futures to rally into the open right now but the overall weakness and the bad news is a warning that any opening effort to rally might not hold. The risk for shorts though is a retest of the overnight highs (ES 874.25, about 15 points higher). NQ is pushing into the green as I type.

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 9:18:44 AM

We have the Capacity Utilization Rate and Industrial Production reports at 9:15ET yet to be released.

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 9:17:32 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Manufacturing activity in the New York region contracted at an accelerated pace in November, the New York Fed reported Monday. The Empire state index fell to a record low 25.4. The gauges for new orders and shipments also fell to record low levels. Readings under zero indicate most firms said business was worse in November than in October.

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 9:16:22 AM

Gee don't you wish you had stayed in bed this morning?

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 9:15:57 AM

Fidelity Investments just announced they will be cutting about 1700 jobs beginning in 2009 but yet to be determined where within the company those cuts will be made.

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 9:12:48 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Royal Bank of Scotland is looking to cut 3,000 jobs, U.K. media outlets reported. A spokeswoman at RBS didn't confirm the job cut plans. The job cuts will come from the global banking and markets workforce and not the NatWest branch networks, the reports said.

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 9:11:29 AM

96% of economists in The National Association of Business Economics say we are in a recession that will last well into 2009. They see GDP contracting to 2.60% and unemployment rising to 7.5% by the end of 2009.

They also believe the FED will not make any further rate cuts and will keep the key benchmark rate at 1% until they make a modest rate hike late in 2009.

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 9:02:00 AM

Even though the Russell 2000 futures (TF) was the only market to trade mostly above its previous day low, all in all the overnight markets took the news out of Citigroup rather well. Link

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 8:56:22 AM

Citigroup originallty said layoffs would total 10,000.

Jane Fox : 11/17/2008 8:51:27 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Citigroup said early Monday that it plans to cut about 50,000 jobs in the near-term and to cut expenses by 20%. It also plans to continue selling off risky assets. Citi said at the end of the September it employed 352,000 people, and that its near-term headcount target is about 300,000.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2008 11:28:03 PM

Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly Index Pivot Matrix at this Link

Equity-based indexes all pretty much hit their highs of the week on Monday.

10-year Yield ($TNX.X) hit its high yield of the week on Monday.

BIX.X is only equity-based that I see in matrix that has some correations.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2008 10:52:50 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch Link

Keene Little : 11/16/2008 10:23:48 PM

Monday's pivot table: Link

Once again the market did a great job at hiding its intentions for Monday by closing right on support. At least we'll know quickly on Monday if it's going to be bearish since the bulls must rally the market immediately on Monday.

The DOW closed right on its uptrend line from October 10th, which it broke below on Thursday and then rallied right back above it. Friday's price action held above the trend line and bounced marginally off it right at the end of the day on Friday (120-min chart): Link

It's possible to consider Friday's price action as a bullish a-b-c pullback correction that finished at Friday afternoon's low or it could make a marginal new low Monday morning so stay aware of the potential for a head-fake drop at the open that gets reversed quickly. SPX closed just above its broken downtrend line from November 4th and has the potential to rally up to either of two Fib projections at 928 and 964 (pink on its 120-min chart). Otherwise a continuation lower will be store for the market. SPX 120-min chart: Link

NDX also closed on its broken downtrend line from November 4th. Another leg higher (pink) could see it tagging the top of a parallel down-channel near 1300 otherwise another drop lower to the bottom of the channel near 1050 is probably the next move. Let the market lead the way on Monday, letting the first 30 minutes settle on a direction. NDX 120-min chart: Link

OI Technical Staff : 11/16/2008 9:59:59 PM

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