Option Investor
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 9:45:57 PM

Today's Testimony (Paulson & Bernanke) with the House Financial Services (podcasts Panels 1, 2 and 3) Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 4:58:48 PM

Aha! Can't do it on SLV ... sorry, no options!

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 4:57:47 PM

What do-ya think? $10?

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 4:57:22 PM

iShares Silver (SLV) $9.47 +3.15% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 4:52:47 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $72.48 -0.23% ... ~$724.80 spot.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 4:46:48 PM

Jane! RVX.X 76.31 +1.15% ... I'm not sure "where it's at" in the MNTHLY/QRTRLY pivots though.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 4:43:30 PM

Gold Coin Auction at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 4:38:20 PM

SPY Option Chain at the close (see earlier MM post) Link

James Brown : 11/18/2008 4:32:08 PM

A New York Post article out today is suggesting there is a run going on for gold coins and that government mints are having a hard time keeping up with demand. I'm not stating any opinion here for or against gold. Just found the story interesting. Story: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 4:18:10 PM

Good eye Jane! RUT.X is small cap. BUD a big boy.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 4:17:06 PM

While BUD not a component of INDU/DIA/YM, its components part of OEX and SPX.

James Brown : 11/18/2008 4:16:59 PM

On the subject of beers, shares of TAP look a little bullish here with a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern and a breakout over its simple 50-dma. If it can clear the recent highs it may be a candidate.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 4:15:50 PM

YM components undoubtedly getting some spillover too. 8,502

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 4:14:24 PM

To the "king of beers" the SPY salutes you.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 4:13:49 PM

SPY $87.00 +1.79% ... churning it out +10million shares in last 15-minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 4:11:23 PM

So long old friend! 09/11 Urban Legend Link

Jane Fox : 11/18/2008 4:06:52 PM

Looks like the DOW will close up 150 points, S&P 8 but the Russell 2000 will close down a few.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 4:04:46 PM

FXY 60-minute interval with my MONTHLY (pink) and Quarterly (dark green) pivot retracement. Trend from October low and late-October high. Link

Thinking into expiration is that with Japan slipping into recession, might see less bullishness for the Yen (if buying was thought process that "they'll only be raising" rates).

James Brown : 11/18/2008 4:03:57 PM

I think Vulcan Materials (VMC) might be worth adding to your watch list. The stock is bouncing from its new relative lows made today. If shares slip under $48.85 again it may be a bearish candidate. A drop toward $45.00 seems like a good bet and the October lows are closer to $42.00. The P&F chart is bearish with a $39.00 target.

Keene Little : 11/18/2008 4:01:25 PM

SPX has broken that downtrend line so if it can now hold above it (so above 854) while it consolidates and then head higher again we'll have our answer about a bottom being put in.

Keene Little : 11/18/2008 3:57:45 PM

SPX is banging its head against the downtrend line from Monday's mid-day high. Above this line, near 854.50, should mean the bottom is in. But so far it's holding and that keeps alive the possibility for one more new low tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 3:53:51 PM

VXO 73.75 +0.82% ... easing a bit.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 3:51:45 PM

DDM Long ... stop goes $27.80. Target is $35.00

James Brown : 11/18/2008 3:47:48 PM

...noticing that software and video game maker ATVI is down sharply (-4% to $10.00) and breaking down from its recent trading range...The Point & Figure chart is showing a new sell signal with a $6.50 target.

James Brown : 11/18/2008 3:44:34 PM

Cogent Inc. (COGT) is out performing today. The stock is up 6.1% to $10.34 and breaking out over its 50-dma, its 100-dma and its 200-dma. I don't see any specific news to account for the rally. I will note that it looks like an inverse head-and-shoulders (bullish) breakout.

Keene Little : 11/18/2008 3:44:22 PM

We've still got opex to think about and I've seen my fair share of turnaround Tuesdays--bottom on Tuesday and then a ramp up into opex.

Keene Little : 11/18/2008 3:43:28 PM

If we now get another leg up for the bounce off the low, two equal legs up would be at SPX 854.62 so watch that level for resistance (in case this is going to be just a bounce that leads to another drop to a new low).

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 3:43:20 PM

Swing trade long alert! ... for 1/8 position in the ProShares Ultra Dow (DDM) at the bid of $29.62

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 3:41:48 PM

FXY $103.32 -0.14% ... Nov. "Max Pain" $99.00. Just over $1M call/put @ $99. $467K is call.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 3:38:59 PM

Excellent, excellent question ...

Keene Little : 11/18/2008 3:34:52 PM

There's still the downside magnet in the 804-815 area if the market does drop lower again so that's the downside risk if you're thinking of trying a long play.

Keene Little : 11/18/2008 3:32:18 PM

It's only small (2-min chart) but the bounce off the low looks like a 5-wave move. That suggests just a pullback and then continuation higher. Whether a higher bounce then turns back down for one more new low or not is the question in my mind. But I feel we're close enough (potentially) to THE low for the year and I believe the short side is the riskier side now.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 3:27:51 PM

"Max Pain" delivered at $33.00

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 3:27:18 PM

HPW $33.06 +12.67% ... notably strong late.

Keene Little : 11/18/2008 3:21:06 PM

I don't know whether we're going to get one more bounce/consolidation and then a final new low late today or tomorrow morning but there is the possibility that we've now seen the low. I've covered all my short positions and happy to be flat now. I'll watch to see if a larger bounce develops in which case I'll then look for a pullback to get long. It should be a long slow grinding process higher so no rush to get long.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 3:19:07 PM

UNG $27.38

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 3:18:56 PM

AVP $21.83

AET $22.50

TSN $4.88

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 3:16:06 PM

YM 8,230

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 3:15:46 PM

flashback to yesterday ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 3:14:16 PM

RED #1

James Brown : 11/18/2008 3:14:07 PM

I think the 2007 lows for oil have become a magnet or a target. Bulls can sit and wait thinking, "if the USO bounces from the 2007 lows then I'll buy the bounce or I'll buy the test of support." And bears might be thinking, "I can keep shorting oil until it reaches the 2007 lows."

The lows I am talking about are the $43.00-42.50 zone on the USO oil ETF. Of course this is just speculation. There is no guarantee that oil will bounce. I've posted a chart with a bear flag pattern on the USO in the last couple of days and depending on how you draw the flag pole oil could go a lot lower. repost of the 11/12/08 chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 3:13:59 PM

DIA $82.65 -0.36% ... notable jerk higher last 5

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 3:12:35 PM

OEX 404.05 -1.66% ... implications toward the close. BUD a heavyweight. ~$46.6 b.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 3:07:54 PM

Anheuser-Busch (BUD) ... at last night's close was #32 weighted SPX component. 0.66% of the total.

James Brown : 11/18/2008 3:03:42 PM

Looking at an intraday chart of the DJIA you can see a bear-flag pattern that is forecasting a drop toward last week's lows around 7970. chart: Link

Keene Little : 11/18/2008 3:03:42 PM

I'm now lowering my stop to just above the last bounce high near 2:00 PM (SPX 842.80). I could get whipped out a little early and I might even then miss a big decline but I'll be happy to take my money off the table, get flat and relax a little. I've been in some of these short positions so long they've got mold on them.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 3:00:55 PM

VXO 77.23 and session highs. DAILYR2/WKLY R1 overlap exhausted.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 3:00:51 PM

DIA $81.66 ... just traded RED#3

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 2:55:55 PM

QQQQ just below RED#4

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 2:55:04 PM

SMH just below RED #4.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 2:53:57 PM

SMH daily pivot $17.00. Session high has been $17.05.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 2:53:17 PM

SMH notes ... On Tuesday of last week, SMH traded its WKLY S1. That day ... NEVER did reclaim DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 2:51:54 PM

SMH $16.06 -4.11% ... has just traded WKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 2:50:36 PM

BIX.X 133.14 -4.10% ... nearing WKLY S1.

Keene Little : 11/18/2008 2:48:56 PM

NDX is in a very similar price pattern as SPX so it's no surprise that it's giving the same picture. My preferred count (dark red) has us very near a bottom, with either a minor new low or test of last Thursday's low (just under 1110) to launch a new rally leg. NDX daily chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 2:47:25 PM

A survey of DAV-WE trader shows buyer prefer 50:17 over sellers.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 2:46:12 PM

Bulk of DIA action is $83 put and $87 Call

James Brown : 11/18/2008 2:42:21 PM

Google (GOOG) is under performing today. The stock is off 3.78% down to $288.75. Last week it bounced at the $280.00 level. The weekly chart might suggest some support in the $275-270 zone dating back to 2005.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 2:41:58 PM

VXO 75.92 "prarie dogs" WKLY R1. WKLY R2 up at 83.94 and overlaps your MONTHLY 61.8% retracement.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 2:39:32 PM

YM 8,161

DXD $86.79

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 2:37:41 PM

YM 5-minute chart, add on your DAILY Pivot retracement (golden-brown) Link

James Brown : 11/18/2008 2:36:28 PM

Hmm.... I keep looking at AAPL to see if this stock is going to move. The trend remains lower and at $88.00 it's quickly approaching its October lows and what should be support near $85.00. Well, I say quickly, it's not moving very quickly today. Now the question is what do we do at $85.00? Buy calls on a bounce? If you think it will bounce we could try covered calls or sell some $85 or $80 puts as a bullish strategy and take advantage of the elevated VIX.

If you think it's going to break $85.00 and keep going then we can buy puts, try some sort of bearish call spread, or sell calls if you have the clearance and stomach for risk (a lot of folks don't like the thought of unlimited risk with selling naked calls). Currently the Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $60.00 target.

A breakdown under $85.00 would be very bearish indeed as it would break this trendline on the weekly chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 2:32:51 PM

Hijacked Saudi tanker reaches Somalia ... Reuters Story Link

Keene Little : 11/18/2008 2:31:37 PM

I've been pointing to the possibility that we could see a bottom today/tomorrow with essentially a minor new low below last Thursday's (SPX 818.69). I'm not quite ready to buy that possibility because there's some risk in the price pattern for us to see a very fast decline that takes SPX at least down to 768 if not lower (I'd be a buyer on a quick plunge lower).

But I'm feeling very nervous about being short now. Ideally we'll get at least another drop lower after bouncing here (SPX 850 maybe for the bounce) and that new low could be it--decline over, get ready to rally. So while I'm not ready to buy I am tightening my stop on all short positions. A rally back above today's mid-day high (SPX 866) would have me flat and a new low will have me pulling my stop down much closer.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 2:28:22 PM

VXO's WKLY R1 75.58 has been traded today.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 2:27:32 PM

VXO.X 74.87 +2.35% ... more correlative to OEX and INDU. QRTRLY R2 here.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 2:26:11 PM

US Dollar Index (SC: $USD) $87.27 +0.46% Link

Jane Fox : 11/18/2008 2:24:47 PM

Here is the same chart but the black line is $SPX.X Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 2:24:25 PM

Pep Boys Manny Moe & Jack (PBY) $3.17 -4.22% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 2:23:48 PM

Advance Auto Parts (AAP) $25.69 -0.46% ... retailer of auto parts/services.

Jane Fox : 11/18/2008 2:22:38 PM

Here is a chart of the DOW (black) and the VIX (red). I have marked Oct 27th when the DOW hit a low of 8143 and the VIX a high of 81.65.

Today the DOW made a low of 8152 very very close to the Oct 27th low but the VIX's high is 71.81.

Is the VIX telling us the DOW is at a short term bottom or that the VIX needs to play catch up? Intraday the VIX is the one that leads so my bet is that the DOW is at a short term bottom here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 2:21:51 PM

Any after-market parts makers showing some upside action of late?

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 2:12:25 PM

SPY Options Chain at 01:58 Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 2:10:35 PM

Traders look to be ..

Selling the 84 put 78:49

Selling the $85 call 2:1

Buying the $81 put 5:2

Selling the $82 put 2:1

James Brown : 11/18/2008 2:06:25 PM

The Railroad index (DJUSRR) has pulled back toward its October lows around the 425 level. Traders have been consistently buying dips in shares of Burlington Northern (BNI) around the $75-74 zone. Today BNI is off 1.1% and bulls have already bought the dip twice in the $75.80-75.60 zone.

CSX, KSU are under performing their peers. UNP is out performing having not quite pulled back toward its October lows yet.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 2:06:11 PM

Most notable Up/Dntick vol is $84 put, 85 call and really the 81 put.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 2:05:34 PM

FXE -0.31%

FXY -0.09%

FXB -0.79% ...

James Brown : 11/18/2008 2:01:36 PM

Casino stocks are some of the worst performers today.

The DJUSCA index is off 5%. Driving the drop is Las Vegas Sands (LVS) which is down 20.6% to $5.18. Shares of WYNN are off 3.8% following yesterday's sharp sell-off and breakdown under the $40.00 mark.

James Brown : 11/18/2008 1:58:15 PM

On the subject of the Volatility index (VIX)... today is the last day of trading for the November VIX options. These are cash settled options, which will settle tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 1:58:04 PM

My QCharts' option chain most atives ... SPY Nov $85P, Nov86C, Nov87C, Nov90C

James Brown : 11/18/2008 1:56:21 PM

The Gold ETF (GLD) and the U.S. dollar (UUP) are almost in lock step (inverse) unison here with the UUP up 0.41% and the GLD down 0.42%.

At this point we can probably bet on the GLD continuing to fall as the UUP builds on its trend of higher lows.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 1:55:50 PM

RISING VIX = more put buying/call selling than put selling/call buying.

Can't just think "long put" but "buy to cover/close."

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 1:54:44 PM

VIX.X session low has been 67.18. Couldn't even get to MNTHLY 61.8%.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 1:53:38 PM

SPY $83.62 -2.15% ... see last night's Wrap. Link and Link

Keene Little : 11/18/2008 1:52:04 PM

Looking at Citigroup, if you have the time would you comment on this single digit midget? It is incredibly weak and I can?t see the market moving up without this important stock. At least I still believe it is important. Thanks

While I fully expect the banks to bottom before the broader market it does look like Citigroup and the rest of the banks have further to fall. The stock is currently trading at 8.16. Looking at the monthly chart of C, it's a big A-B-C pullback pattern from the high in 2000. Wave C down is the drop from its 2006 high and the targets for a c-wave are equality with wave A (the 2000-2002 decline) and 162% of A. Equality was at 22.36 and 162% is at 0.94.

Now before you laugh at that lower number you should realize that the 1990 low was 1.41 and it's not inconceivable that we'll see at least that much of a retracement. The wave pattern calls for a bounce soon, like the broader market and then another leg down to complete the 5-wave count for wave C. Monthly chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 1:51:21 PM

VIX.X has cleared Q R2. WKLY R1 just ahead.

James Brown : 11/18/2008 1:50:01 PM

CNBC talking about rumors that MSFT considering a $17 or $18 a share deal to buy Yahoo (YHOO) or less to buy just the search business.

YHOO is up 4.4% to $11.09 and falling fast.

Jane Fox : 11/18/2008 1:48:45 PM

The bears have been able to turn the tables on the bulls and have once again snatched victory from their hoofs. Link

Jane Fox : 11/18/2008 1:45:57 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. home builders have never been as anguished about their industry as they were in early November, with their monthly market index gauge plunging five points to a record low 9, the National Association of Home Builders reported Tuesday.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index shows that fewer than one in 10 builders is optimistic about the market for new single-family homes, with builders particularly discouraged about the pace of sales and the dearth of potential buyers. They are slightly more optimistic that sales could improve over the next six months. Association of Home Builders reported Tuesday.

The home builders' index has been falling for nearly three and a half years after peaking at 72 during the height of the housing bubble. The index dates to 1985. Association of Home Builders reported Tuesday.

Over time, the builders' index has been closely correlated with housing starts, which are expected to fall to a post-World War II in October.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 1:43:41 PM

YM 8,200

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 1:42:05 PM

BPOIL was "Bear confirmed" at last night's close at 18.41%

Keene Little : 11/18/2008 1:41:09 PM

My link for the SPX 60-min chart on my previous post (1:11 PM) got messed up so here it is: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 1:40:04 PM

EOG Resources $79.87 -0.72% ... retraces 19.1% of 10/10/08 low to recent 11/13/08 high.

Jane Fox : 11/18/2008 1:38:26 PM

The overnight charts show how much weaker the NDX is compared to the other three. (of course the Russell 2000 futures (TF) is on a 20 mintue delay) Link

Keene Little : 11/18/2008 1:19:46 PM

The move down from this morning's high can be satisfactorily counted as a 5-wave move down. That sets us up for at least a bounce to correct the leg down. The larger pattern is getting very choppy and continues to leave open the possibility for a larger rally leg back up. If you're day trading this on the short side I'd trail my stop down lower now.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 1:17:45 PM

VIX.X 74.50 +1.84% ... approaching QUARTERLY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 1:16:35 PM

Kind'a like the New Orleans debacle after Hurricane Rita/Katrina isn't it?

If THEY got it, why not me (Atwood, KS example).

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 1:15:26 PM

From what I've gathered so far today is Paulson is thinking about changing course from original plan of $700B, which our good friends in Washington approved us taxpayers for.

Now that the "plan" might be changing, market participants, and some in Washington not overly thrilled.

If banks don't get the TARP and we now take care of Automakers, then what do we do with the original plan?

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 1:12:41 PM

ZION's WEEKLY Pivot Levels are ... $22.44, $27.50, Piv= $34.13, $39.19, $45.82.

Keene Little : 11/18/2008 1:11:27 PM

Still messing around with my screen capture program to try to get some screen shots of charts. Here's what I was working on earlier when I mentioned the cleaned up SPX 60-min chart: Link . For now I'm keeping it simple and showing an expectation for a move lower, ideally to about 805, to put in a bottom. At least that's the setup.mm=&Path=/oin/mm/chartlink/603_11182008101112

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 1:10:31 PM

ZION $31.50 +4.89% ... BEAR risk to a "buy signal" is $4.50. Bear REWARD to the bearish vertical count is $31.50 - $18.00 = $13.50.

RISK/REWARD = 1:3 ... pretty good in my opinion.

Bear correction deemed ONLY 1/2 position at most.

$5K / $31.50 = 158 shares.

1 option = 100 shares.

IF RISK to "buy signal" is $4.50, looking for an option of <=$4.50

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 1:04:55 PM

BPBANK and ZION PnF montage (same as you and I did a few weeks ago here in the MM) Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 1:03:15 PM

ZION traded $35.00 on 11/12/08

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 12:54:54 PM

ZION $31.43 +4.66% ...

Nov Max Pain= $50.00
Dec Max Pain= $40.00
Jan Max Pain= $35.00

BPBANK reversed back lower to "bull correction" on 11/12/08.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 12:49:48 PM

COMPX 1,475.35 -0.45% ... session high has been 1,498.42. See last Wednesday's wrap. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 12:47:17 PM

VIX.X 69.00

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 12:47:08 PM

Avon Products (AVP) $21.91 -0.45% ... AVP-XX $2.25 x $2.45.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 12:46:16 PM

Bare Escentuals (BARE) $3.86 -7.21% ... set to test 10/31/08 52-week low.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 12:36:24 PM

Tough thing about socialistic policy. Who gets taken care of first?

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 12:35:31 PM

"No TARP" comments today look to be impacting things.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 12:35:06 PM

ZION $31.44 +4.69% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 12:34:47 PM

NCC $2.08 -5.45% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 12:34:29 PM

PNC $55.99 -5.44% ...

Keene Little : 11/18/2008 12:27:20 PM

Techs and small caps remain weak while the blue chips are stronger, especially the DOW. We've seen this movie before and the ending probably won't change--the rally should fail.

Jane Fox : 11/18/2008 12:25:15 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Standard & Poor's said Tuesday early figures show that third-quarter operating earnings for the S&P 500 declined 21.6% from the year-ago period. About 94% of the S&P 500 has reported quarterly earnings this cycle. "The Energy sector played the role of hero during the third quarter, contributing 40.4% of the S&P 500's operating earnings -- up from 16.2% a year ago," said Howard Silverblatt, an S&P senior index analyst, in a statement. "Without Energy, the third quarter operating earnings for the S&P 500 would have hit an all-time low. Conversely, Financials have now posted their fourth consecutive quarter of negative earnings after accounting for 18.5% of operating earnings this time last year."

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 12:19:40 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 12:06:26 PM

FXY $102.48 -0.95% ...

Keene Little : 11/18/2008 12:04:44 PM

I'm having trouble capturing screen images on my laptop this morning so until I solve it I can't post charts. I've cleaned up the SPX 60-min chart a little and continue to consider the higher probability price pattern as the one that calls for a new low to potentially end the decline sooner rather than later (I thought today but maybe tomorrow).

I think we'll either see a continuation lower from here or after another leg up for the bounce from yesterday morning's low. The latter scenario could see SPX rally up to the downtrend line from November 4th, currently near 896. The key level to the upside remains at 900--any higher than that and we'd likely see a run up to 950. For the time being I like the short side better than the long side but the risk is for a run up to 896 before turning back down.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 12:04:31 PM

YM now up 175 at 8,432.

At last night's low of 8,100, was off roughly same amount.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 11:59:59 AM

GLD's session low has been WKLY Pivot. DAILY R1 $73.56 not yet traded.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 11:58:46 AM

"Max Pain" from last night's Wrap. Add "live" intra-day benchmark and % distance from "Max Pain" theory level. Link

GLD was closest. "elevates" a bit.

Jane Fox : 11/18/2008 11:57:39 AM

Bullishier is my new word for the day.

Jane Fox : 11/18/2008 11:57:24 AM

Internals getting bullishier and bullishier. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 11:50:31 AM

Paulson: ... "No we don't believe it is in best interest to let an oil company fail in this position.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 11:40:05 AM

SPY's Daily Pivot is $86.40

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 11:39:24 AM

SPY $85.87 +0.46% ... at $86 strike 1.76 Billion total capital. $1.6 B is put.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 11:37:19 AM

SMH $16.60 -0.89% ... undercuts DAILY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 11:37:14 AM

DIA $83.77 +0.98% ... roughly $220 million of call/put capital at $84 strike. $204M is put.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 11:26:52 AM

Tyson Foods (TSN) $4.90 +2.08% ...

Nov "Max Pain"= $7.50
Dec "Max Pain"= $5.00
Jan "Max Pain"= $12.50

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 11:24:50 AM

Aetna (AET) $23.35 +2.41% ...

Nov "Max Pain"= $25.00
Dec "Max Pain"= $22.50
Jan "Max Pain"= $40.00

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 11:22:40 AM

Avon Products (AVP) $21.85 -0.72% ...

Nov "Max Pain"= $25.00
Dec "Max Pain"= $25.00

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 11:20:12 AM

UNG $28.27 +1.50% ... its Nov. "Max Pain" = $30.00

December= $29.00 currently.

January $33.00 currently

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 11:17:44 AM

Yesterday, VIX.X rose ... so more put buying/call selling than put selling/call buying.

Not sure as not benchmarked OI, but likely some covered/naked call selling.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 11:16:31 AM

After yesterday's action, SPY's "Max Pain" fell to $96.00.

Keene Little : 11/18/2008 11:16:28 AM

I'm back. I see SPX made an attempt to break its downtrend line from Friday but has now dropped back slightly below it. The price pattern is choppy in both directions and therefore leaves the short-term direction a guess at the moment. We might see price consolidate for a little longer but basically I think a break of either this morning's low or high should set the direction for the day.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 11:14:18 AM

Let's call it "Max Pain" breadth of 6:24.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 11:13:08 AM

INDU components above their Nov. Max Pains ... XOM (70.00), CVX (70.00), MMM (60.00), JNJ at (60.00), VZ at (30.00), T tad above (26.00).

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 11:10:13 AM

Volatility measures VIX and VXO rather quiet this morning. Pretty much around the DAILY Pivots.

Jane Fox : 11/18/2008 10:56:16 AM

I am reading an article on the "effective" FED funds rate, the actual rate at which overnight funds are changing hands. It is 0.25% much lower than the intended rate of 1%.

Why is this important? Another rate cut will in essence be totally ineffective and will do nothing to ease the current monetary issues. The next question is why has the FED allowed this gap to happen? Well that could be due to the huge amounts of liquidity getting pumped into the financial system of late or that there is very little interbank lending taking place these days.

Actually the reason is irrelevant but what is important is that the FED does not have this arrow is its quiver anymore, any more rate cuts will do nothing at all.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 10:44:49 AM

YM 60-minute interval chart Link

Jane Fox : 11/18/2008 10:42:36 AM

Internals are bullish but taking a rest, although I certainly don?t know why for it has not been overly bullish today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 10:42:17 AM

YM 8,373 ... yet to test WKLY Pivot (8,485) today.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 10:41:26 AM

FXY 102.80 -0.64% ... either side of its WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 10:32:51 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 10:08:14 AM

DXD $85.07 +0.50% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 10:06:20 AM

YM's WKLY 38.2% at 8,203. Much below that then overlapping WKLY S1 and M S1 comes into play.

Keene Little : 11/18/2008 9:54:13 AM

The downtrend line for SPX from last Friday's high is near 862. Anything above that would be a heads up that we might be off to the races for the move up to 950. If we instead see price consolidate near the lows we can expect to see another leg down.

I have to step away for about an hour. Be back before 10:00 AM.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 9:51:59 AM

ES's overnight low was 829.25. Settled 851 on Monday.

Jane Fox : 11/18/2008 9:48:20 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke defended on Tuesday their stewardship of the $700 billion financial market rescue plan. In prepared remarks to the House Financial Services panel, Paulson said that there was "no playbook" for the Bush administration to follow and so strategy had to be adjusted. He said the financial markets would be worse off if Congress had not approved the package. Bernanke said he saw some improvements in credit markets, but said overall conditions remain "far from normal." Paulson defended his decision not to use funds from the package to aid homeowners. He said the best way to turn the housing market around was to "increase access to lower cost mortgage lending." He argued that the government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was an important step in that direction.

Jane Fox : 11/18/2008 9:45:13 AM

AD line is a leaning towards the bulls but not as much as I thought it would, +684

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 9:43:59 AM

YM 8,306 here.

Jeff Bailey : 11/18/2008 9:43:09 AM

YM's overnight low was 8,100.

Keene Little : 11/18/2008 9:34:36 AM

Equity futures dropped hard last night but have bounced off their pre-market lows put in around 6:30 AM. That kind of rally back up is often reversed after the cash market opens so be prepared for that. ES low was 829.25.

Jane Fox : 11/18/2008 9:31:57 AM

Crude hit a low of $54.13 overnight. Last time it was that low was February 2007. Link

Jane Fox : 11/18/2008 9:26:57 AM

Markets liked the record drop in the PPI and are now challenging their ON highs. Looks like ON ranges will serve as good areas of resistance and support today so make sure you keep them on your radar screen. Link

Jane Fox : 11/18/2008 9:23:08 AM

The two former Treasury Secretaries, Lawrence Summers and Robert Rubin, speaking at The Wall Street Journal CEO Council, a Washington gathering of top corporate executives and policy makers, called for substantial fiscal stimulus, in order to boost the faltering economy. They joined the current Treasury chief, Henry Paulson, on a stage to debate tax policy, fiscal stimulus and responses to the financial crisis.

Jane Fox : 11/18/2008 9:07:31 AM

The executives of the Big Three auto makers are scheduled to go before Congress to ask for a $25 billion government rescue today.

Some congressional leaders want to dip into the $700 billion bailout package for new loans to but others say the beleaguered industry shouldn't get any new funds.

Those who disagree propose diverting $25 billion in loans designed to help auto manufacturers retool their factories so they can make more fuel-efficient vehicles - to cover the firms' immediate financial woes.

But auto executives, insist they need an additional $25 billion to stave off a collapse of one or more of the big three before year's end.

Jane Fox : 11/18/2008 9:00:33 AM

Bowing to pressure from investors, Yahoo Inc. founder Jerry Yang will step down as CEO of the company, although he has publicly expressed his desire to remain at the helm.

Yang displeased investors when he balked at a $47.5 billion takeover offer from Microsoft Corp. six months ago that would have netted $33/share, unfortunately (not entirely due to Yang though) Yahoo stock is now $10.

Yang's will not step down until Yahoo finds a suitable replacement.

Jane Fox : 11/18/2008 8:53:44 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Home Depot Inc., the world's largest home improvement retailer, said Tuesday that its fiscal third-quarter profit fell 31% after the declining economic outlook led consumers to curtail big-ticket and other discretionary spending.

Jane Fox : 11/18/2008 8:51:37 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. producer prices fell a record 2.8% in October, the most since 1947, as gasoline prices plummeted a record 24.9%, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Overall finished energy goods prices fell 12.8%, the most since 1986, while food prices declined 0.2%. Excluding food and energy, core producer prices rose 0.4% in October. Analysts polled by MarketWatch were looking for a decrease of 1.6% in overall PPI, and a 0.1% increase in the core rate. Producer prices are up 5.2% over the past 12 months. Further back in the production pipeline, prices for intermediate goods fells a record 3.9% in October, while prices for crude goods fell a record 18.6%.

Keene Little : 11/18/2008 1:28:21 AM

Tuesday's pivot table: Link

I showed on Monday a possible fractal pattern between what's currently playing out this month as compared to the low that was made back in March. If the pattern plays out the same we should see only one more minor new low before setting up a rally into February. Here's the 60-min chart pattern from March 2008: Link and compare it to today's pattern (focus just on the dark red wave count): Link

I'm showing on the current chart the possibility for another stronger rally leg up to about 950 (light dashed line) and a rally above 900 would say that's what we're going to get. The other possibility, shown in pink, is for the market to chop its way lower into the end of the month. But the dark red count is the one I think is the most probable at this time so don't hang around short if it gets down to a Fib projection zone of 804-815 and looks to be finding support (with bullish divergences on the charts).

The 815 target comes from a projection for two equal legs down from last Friday's high (shown at 814.78). The 804 projection comes from the larger pattern of the move down from May where the 5th wave would equal the 1st wave--at 805.51 shown on the daily chart: Link

As requested, to show how these charts link together in the wave counts, this weekly chart shows where we are in the wave count from the October 2007 high. After completing the leg down from May, which is wave (3) on the daily chart, we'll be due a larger 4th wave correction into about February (ready for a continuation of the large whippy corrective price action for another 3 months?). Following the larger 4th wave correction we'll be due one more leg down into about May to finish the bear market leg down from October 2007 (not the bigger bear market, just that bear market leg). Weekly chart: Link

And then lastly, dialing down to a 10-min chart the "one more new low" pattern calls for the new low on Tuesday and needs to be a 5-wave move down from Monday's mid-day high. That's what I'll be watching for. If we don't get that kind of move then I'll know something else is playing out and I'll back out to the longer timeframes to get a sense of which scenario moves into the preferred count. 10-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 11:37:45 PM

YM settled 8,259. Currently lower by 30 at 8,229.

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 11:35:34 PM

Current CLOSED and OPEN/active MM profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 11:08:44 PM

Correction to Monday's Wrap: ... "The yen was strong versus the greenback with the Yen CurrencyShares (FXY) $103.47 +0.83%

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 10:34:36 PM

U.S. Intl. Reserve Positions Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2008 10:34:31 PM

Retail Gasoline Heat Map with Avg. Price for major population centers Link

11/10/08 Link

OI Technical Staff : 11/17/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Market Monitor Archives