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Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 6:18:42 PM

XLF $11.15 +15.18%.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 6:05:37 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 6:03:14 PM

RVX.X finished 72.34 -9.92%

VXO.X 67.64 -11.19%

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 5:28:00 PM

Retail Gasoline Price Heat Map Link

Last Monday Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 5:27:56 PM

Chicago cracks below the $2.00 level on average. 3rd largest U.S. populated city.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 5:10:17 PM

EIA Retail Gasoline Prices plunge to an average of $1.892/gallon for week ended Monday. Down $0.18/gallon on average from 11/17/08. Down $1.205 vs. year ago. Link

James Brown : 11/24/2008 4:18:57 PM

Now they're saying this is the biggest two-day rally in the DJIA since 1987. Today's close 8443 minus Thursday's close 7552 is a gain of 891 points or +11.79%.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 4:06:02 PM

UYG $5.06 +27.13% ... indeed. Financials were strong today.

James Brown : 11/24/2008 4:05:34 PM

Today was the first two-day rally for the month of November.

James Brown : 11/24/2008 4:05:10 PM

Some huge moves today...

BKX banking index... +16.7%
BIX banking index... +13.7%
XBD broker-dealers.. +19.1%

DJUSHB home constr.. +16.5%
DJUSCA gambling..... +16.1%
RLX retail index.... +10.5%

NWX networking... +8.3%
IUX insurance.... +9.5%
XAL airlines .... +9.7%

USO oil etf...... +7.7%
OIX oil index ... +7.2%
XNG natural gas.. +8.0%
OSX oil services. +8.4%

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 4:04:09 PM

FXE $129.32 +2.64%

FXY $102.85 -1.19%

FXB $151.76 +1.85%

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 4:03:20 PM

DXY's 04:00 tick 85.94 -2.55% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 4:02:09 PM

"Bad tick" on Ford Motor (F) $1.50 +5.59% ... to $0.00.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 4:01:22 PM

At $80 strike, roughly $32.7 million call/put OI.

$31.3 call.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 3:59:41 PM

XOM's Dec "Max Pain" theory tabulated currently at $75.00.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 3:58:31 PM

XOM $78.70 +3.89% ... edges back below WKLY R1 after momentary trade at $80.00.

Keene Little : 11/24/2008 3:57:42 PM

That was the end of the 5th wave up so a short against this afternoon's high is a good day trade. Now we can expect a larger pullback tomorrow but it should be a good setup for another long play. We'll be watching for a Fib retracement of the rally off Friday's low.

James Brown : 11/24/2008 3:55:25 PM

HPQ is due to report earnings after the close today. The company already pre-announced stronger earnings (guidance) on 11/18/08. The stock is bouncing around the $33.50-36.00 zone and volume has been extremely low as investors wait for the final news tonight. The stock might offer some fireworks tomorrow as traders react to future guidance.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 3:51:27 PM

Tyson Foods (TSN) $6.00 +16.32% ... gets a 3-box reversal back higher.

In my opinion, the most "undervalued" commodity-related stock I follow.

James Brown : 11/24/2008 3:48:03 PM

Hmmm...Not everything is up today. A few big cap stocks that are really not participating in today's rally: LMT, GENZ, GIS, LLL, LO, ABT, GD, UNP, RTN, RAI, HNZ, DTE, and CPB.

Keene Little : 11/24/2008 3:46:00 PM

There is the possibility we had somewhat of a rising wedge pattern for the 4th wave correction (called a running 4th) in the move up from Friday which ended with the pullback into the low at 2:45 PM. Projecting the 5th wave up from there, to equal the 1st wave, gives us an upside target of SPX 863.79, getting hit right here. It could certainly extend higher, easily with the low volume we're seeing today, but again, there is the potential for a quick reversal at any time now.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 3:43:52 PM

UNG $28.45 +4.05% ... today was December Nymex futures termination.

James Brown : 11/24/2008 3:43:08 PM

Today's rally has lifted UPS back to month-long resistance near the $55.50 region. A breakout above the $55.50-56.00 zone may be a bullish entry point.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 3:41:39 PM

USO $44.17 +7.73% ... IF it is true that XOM is a "key stock", then USO may be a "key commodity" (see my recent weeks focus) Link

Keene Little : 11/24/2008 3:38:36 PM

The move up from Friday morning looks like a 5-wave move up now (looking at a 10 or 30-min chart). The 1st wave up off Friday morning's low looks like a 3-wave move (should be a 5-wave move for an impulsive 1st wave) but this is where the intraday wave pattern is often inaccurate, especially in 1st waves. The strong thrust higher from the afternoon pullback low looks like a strong 3rd wave. At any rate, a 5-wave move should be followed by a pullback to correct it and that's what I expect to see tomorrow morning.

The good news for the bulls is that resistance has now been broken so it's difficult to guess how much of a pullback we'll get. But the move above resistance could be a head fake to snag some stops (total volume is running much lower today last Thursday or Friday so it's easier to push the market around a bit). So a quick pullback from here or first thing tomorrow morning could have SPX right back below its downtrend line. We'll have to see how it plays out tomorrow. For now we have to respect the upside potential but be wary of further upside since we should now be completing a 5-wave move up.

James Brown : 11/24/2008 3:38:33 PM

It's amazing how quickly EOG, an oil and gas stock, has reversed last week's very bearish breakdown. The stock is up another 13% today and challenging previous resistance near $85.00.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 3:37:31 PM

Very well ... Link

USO $44.24 +7.90%
XOM $79.84 +5.30%
CVX $76.65 +8.82%
WMT $53.58 +1.20%

IBM $80.40 +7.37%

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 3:34:10 PM

CVX $76.50 +8.61% ... note to see 11/10/08 MM.

James Brown : 11/24/2008 3:33:16 PM

Education stock Apollo Group (APOL) is finally breaking out higher from its multi-week consolidation. The stock is up 4% at $73. The next level of overhead resistance appears to be the $80.00-81.00 zone.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 3:28:36 PM

I do listen to Mr. Cramer, test his hypothesis. Would confirm his thoughts.

I believe SPX is a good representation of "the U.S. market."

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 3:27:23 PM

PG $64.17 +1.71% ... #2 in SPX at 2.70%

James Brown : 11/24/2008 3:27:22 PM

There isn't much volume on this bounce for some of the financials. Here are a couple of examples. BAC's average volume is about 121 million shares a day. Friday saw 229 million shares. Today's 25% gain in BAC is only seeing 27 million shares. That's about 22% of normal volume. JPM's average volume is 77 million/day. Last Friday's volume was 194 million. Today's 19% gain in the stock is only seeing 17 million shares, which is also about 22% of the normal level.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 3:26:33 PM

XOM ... #1 weight in SPX too. 5.63% at Friday's closing tick.

James Brown : 11/24/2008 3:22:21 PM

Apple Inc (AAPL) is up 12% and breaking out past the $90.00 mark and its 10-dma. The rally is also rising past its 38.2% Fib retracement level. Chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 3:16:27 PM

UYG $5.05 +26.88% ... prarie dogs the $5.00 strike.

James Brown : 11/24/2008 3:13:32 PM

Jeff mentioned XOM as I was typing this note... Strength in crude oil and the energy sector has been good for ExxonMobil (XOM). The stock is up 4.3% and breaking out past resistance at its 100-dma and the $78.00 level. I don't follow Jim Cramer but I remember some of his comments last week about watching XOM as some sort of bellwether for the market.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 3:13:19 PM

INDU 8,403 +4.49%

DIA $84.15 +4.48%

YM 8,408

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 3:12:12 PM

MMM $62.02 +1.22% ... 34.21% of INDU/DIA/YM weighting to here.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 3:11:34 PM

PG $63.84 +1.18% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 3:11:16 PM

CVX $75.65 +7.24% ... WKLY R1 $75.71

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 3:10:46 PM

IBM $79.59 +6.30% ...

Keene Little : 11/24/2008 3:10:30 PM

The bulls are certainly trying hard to get it up and over SPX 848. But the rally from the mid-day pullback is choppy with overlapping highs and lows. This is what makes it look more like an ending pattern and why I don't think resistance will break, not today. But obviously a rally above 850 that holds above, or holds a retest of its downtrend line from the 4th, would be a bullish move.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 3:10:18 PM

XOM $79.23 +4.53% ... gets the trade at WKLY R1.

James Brown : 11/24/2008 3:07:22 PM

Wow! Interesting factoid on CNBC about Goldman Sachs (GS). Last Friday GS' market cap had fallen to $21 billion. GS' 2007 executive bonus pool paid was $17 billion.

James Brown : 11/24/2008 3:05:18 PM

Interesting observation... the RLX retail index is up 9.6% and yet Wal-Mart (WMT) is only up 0.9% at $53.40 even after WMT was upgraded to out perform this morning. Another retailer that is under performing is AnnTaylor (ANN), which is down 11.1% to another new low at $4.29. ANN had its price target cut from $10 to $5 this morning.

James Brown : 11/24/2008 3:03:08 PM

The GOX CBOE gold index is up 8.6% at $104 and breaking out over resistance near the $100-101 zone but the rally is struggling at its 50-dma.

James Brown : 11/24/2008 3:02:00 PM

Gambling stocks are out performing today with the DJUSCA index up 12.8%. Leading the way are LVS and WYNN. Shares of LVS are up +15% but that doesn't mean much on a stock under $4.00. WYNN is up 17.4% at $37.62. I would keep an eye on WYNN. A failed rally in the $40-44 zone could be another bearish entry point.

James Brown : 11/24/2008 2:59:00 PM

exit alert! Readers will want to consider taking some quick profits off the table on some of our new call plays for OI.

Fluor (FLR) is up 15.4% to $36.84. Our first target to exit was $35.50. Our secondary target is $39.50.

Research In Motion (RIMM) is up 3.7% at $46.46. The intraday high was $48.26. Our first target to exit was $48.00. Our secondary target is $54.50.

Sears (SHLD) is up 16.1% to $35.25. Our first target to exit was $34.90. Our secondary target is $39.50.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 2:53:44 PM

Obama presents team to navigate economic crisis ... Reuters Story Link

Keene Little : 11/24/2008 2:51:58 PM

The downtrend line for SPX, from November 4th, is now near 848 so the resistance wall remains at 844-848. Can the bulls do it today? Until proven otherwise it's resistance and therefore a good place to try a short play.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 2:38:42 PM

EEV, OGZPY, CHL, PBR 15-minute interval montage (same as last week), but turn on QCharts' WKLY Pivot Levels Link

Keene Little : 11/24/2008 2:35:49 PM

We're getting the push to a new high but the bearirsh divergences continue. It doesn't mean it will come back down but it's hard to trust at this point and I'd worry about chasing it higher. It could continue higher if sellers are simply stepping away and waning upside momentum may merely be reflecting fewer buyers as well. It's a warning.

Keene Little : 11/24/2008 2:15:32 PM

If the correction/consolidation since this morning's high is an expanded flat correction then the 2nd leg of the pullback should head for 162% of the 1st leg of the pullback (the 1st leg down being the one from the high just before 12:00 PM to the low near 12:20 PM). That gives us a downside projection to 816.25. But if tagged, watch to see if 820 holds.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 2:13:37 PM

Client email regarding Holliday Gift Cards Link (unverified by BCM)

Keene Little : 11/24/2008 2:11:29 PM

So far we got a test of this morning's high with bearish divergence. I see the possibility for one more attempt at a high but the higher probability is for another leg down in the pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 2:06:23 PM

USO $44.00 +7.31% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 2:06:03 PM

EEV $80.75 -17.38% ...
OGZPY $16.65 +28.17%
CHL $44.87 -0.06%
PBR $19.56 +12.41% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 2:04:05 PM

GG didn't quite get GREEN#3

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 2:03:15 PM

GLD went GREEN#2

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 2:01:48 PM

GLD $80.69 +2.33% ... opening tick was $80.45.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 2:01:10 PM

GG $25.87 +6.81% ... after near-pullback to morning open ($25.79)

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 1:53:43 PM

GG $25.50 +5.28% ...

GLD $80.58 +2.19% ... ~$805.80 spot

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 1:51:58 PM

SLV closed about here on 11/05/08

CDE closed $0.66. Today's high so far $0.63.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 1:50:10 PM

CDE $0.59 +18.00% ...

SLV $10.24 +7.56% ...

Looks about right from prior MM Profiles trade blotters.

Jane Fox : 11/24/2008 1:48:19 PM

And in the SPX Link

and the DOW Link

Jane Fox : 11/24/2008 1:48:32 PM

One of the first things I look for to help me determine if a bottom has been made is a MACD divergence and we have a very nice one here. Link

Jane Fox : 11/24/2008 1:42:49 PM

The internals remain very strong today and I see no hint that the bears will be able to grab the ball away from the bulls. Link

Keene Little : 11/24/2008 1:15:18 PM

Jeff made a good observation. There is a shelf of support near 844 that SPX briefly broke below on November 13th and then firmly broke last week. That shelf of support is now resistance so it's a tough wall of resistance between 844 and 850.

Keene Little : 11/24/2008 1:12:24 PM

I think we'll get at least another leg in th pullback from this morning's high. If we get a new high look for bearish divergences to set up a day trade on the short side.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 1:01:24 PM

SPX 834.72 +4.33% ... has challenged 10/10/08 relative low.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 1:00:36 PM

VIX.X 64.26 -11.57% ... has edges into Sheridan/Lusk upper-end "new range"

Keene Little : 11/24/2008 12:53:57 PM

The updated SPX daily chart shows the parallel down-channel from November 4th high is still intact and until SPX gets above 850 it remains possible we'll get one more new low (pink) to finish the decline. But a pullback followed by a break higher than 850 would be a bullish move and suggest we've seen the low for the year. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 12:31:05 PM

JPM $25.42 +11.79%
BAC $13.79 +20.22%,
WFC $24.62 +13.14%
C $5.71 +51.45%
USB $24.45 +8.52%

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 12:28:51 PM

UYG 09/30/08 weightings Link (JPM 8.14%, BAC 8.05%, WFC 5.90%, C 5.63%, USB 3.14%)

Keene Little : 11/24/2008 12:28:15 PM

A Fib 38%-62% retracement of the rally off Friday afternoon's low gives us a downside target zone of SPX 781-804 for a pullback. At this point, with the steeper drop it looks like that's what we've now started. If it holds and consolidates above 820 that would be bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 12:22:39 PM

ProShares Ultra Financials (UYG) $4.76 +19.59% ... Those that may have opted for the underlying get a boost from C today. Would simply bring a stop +10% from entry to try and ensure gain. Targeting $11.40.

Jane Fox : 11/24/2008 12:20:06 PM

Pan-Eurpoean Stoxx 600 posts biggest one day gain ever

FTSE gain is a 20-year best

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 12:16:12 PM

Shoot ... entered "stop" incorrect and have sold entire CDE at $0.6159. (didn't click stop limit, order went market/bid)

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 12:13:42 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $3.87 +9.01% ... Recent NAV Link

Monthly Distribution Link

Those long the Friday's offer of $3.57 (SEC Yield 25.21%), would simply hold for yield, however exit should (partial) the shares trade $4.82.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 12:05:25 PM

I sold partial earlier this morning at $26.50.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 12:04:23 PM

Goldcorp (GG) $27.30 +12.71% ... traders long above the MNTHLY Pivot could bring stop up to $24.00.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 12:01:14 PM

Coeur D' Alene Mines (CDE) $0.62 +24.00% ... traders long from Friday could bring an intra-day stop up to $0.595.

Keene Little : 11/24/2008 11:51:35 AM

The FTSE closed up +9.8% for the day. I don't discount the same possibility for our markets. While it's nice to see that kind of rally it's definitely "too much too fast" and smacks more of short covering than anything else. In other words the risk is that it's just another bear market rally. So if trading the long side, as I am too, don't be bashful about taking profits off the table when offered. The rally from Friday's low is already looking like too much too fast.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 11:51:15 AM

Most Actives ... C $5.98 +58.62%, QQQQ $27.84 +4.38%, MSFT $20.50 +4.16%, INTC $13.38 +2.05%, SPY $84.14 +5.83%, CSCO $15.87 +4.61%, AAPL $89.83 +8.77%, SIRI $0.15 +7.14%, ORCL $16.87 +2.99%, UYG $4.83 +21.35%

Keene Little : 11/24/2008 11:45:09 AM

The way SPX is chopping its way higher it now looks like it may be putting in an ending pattern rather than consolidating for a move higher. This could be setting up at least a larger pullback to correct the leg up from Friday's low.

Keene Little : 11/24/2008 11:18:20 AM

So far it looks like the market is consolidating for another push higher.

Keene Little : 11/24/2008 10:48:51 AM

Assuming for the moment that we're going to get a pause that refreshes I'll be watching the pullback for signs of a corrective wave structure. That would be a bullish sign that NDX will break its downtrend line and SPX will rally at least up to its line (near 850). NDX 1110/SPX 820 (near the November 13th low and November 20th high) should hold and if not then it would turn potentially more bearish again.

Keene Little : 11/24/2008 10:37:38 AM

NDX is now hitting its downtrend line from November 4th at 1136 so watch for at least a pullback/consolidation.

Keene Little : 11/24/2008 10:22:27 AM

SPX has recaptured 820 and looks like it's trying to hold on here. If it makes it higher and then pulls back look for 820 to act as support.

Jane Fox : 11/24/2008 10:29:59 AM

The VIX has fallen almost 5 points since the open. That should tell you who is in control today - the bulls. Link

Jane Fox : 11/24/2008 10:16:38 AM

The US Government is making it clear the arrangement it has with Citi could be used as a boilerplate for other banks and the one at the top of the list is Bank of America, the other shoe that may drop in the near future. Why BoA? Because it bought Countrywide, a mortgage company that was heavily into the subprime business.

Keene Little : 11/24/2008 10:07:58 AM

The other reason last Thursday's highs are important for the bulls to break is because it's the same level as the sharp decline and then v-bottom reversal on November 13th. Break that low, and then retesting it and failing last Thursday was bearish so recapturing it now is important. So SPX 820 is an important level to get above and stay above.

Jane Fox : 11/24/2008 10:06:10 AM

Internals are quite bullish and this is no time to be short. Link

Jane Fox : 11/24/2008 10:05:38 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Resales of U.S. single-family homes and condos fell 3.1% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.98 million, the National Association of Realtors reported Monday. Resales have sunk 1.6% in the past year. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected sales to fall to 5.0 million. The inventory of unsold homes on the market fell 0.9% to 4.23 million, a 10.2 month supply at the current sales pace. The median sales prices fell 11.3% in the past year to $183,300. This is the lowest sales price since March 2004. Some of the areas hardest hit by the downturn are starting to see renewed activity, said Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the NAR. Prices have fallen so far in these areas- primarily Florida and California, that buyers now sense bargains.

Keene Little : 11/24/2008 10:04:12 AM

Nice little buy program kicking in here.

Keene Little : 11/24/2008 9:59:55 AM

The first level that the market is struggling with are the highs on Thursday. The DOW pushed slightly higher this morning but SPX and NDX fell short of their respective highs. If the current pullback is followed by another push higher I suspect NDX will be the first to challenge its downtrend line from November 4th, currently near 1138 (trading 1099 here). It could lead the way if the bulls get a little more energy here.

Keene Little : 11/24/2008 9:53:17 AM

If we do get gap closure today I think it would increase the odds for a deeper pullback at a minimum before heading higher again (pink wave count on the 60-min chart posted last night). It could drop all the way back down for another test of SPX 768 and then set up another big rally leg up to the downtrend line from November 4th, probably near 840 by Wednesday. That would be the setup for a decline to a new low next week. As long as SPX is below 850 we should stay aware of that possibility--either from here or after a bigger bounce this week (which again is typically a bullish week). Bottom line is we could still see some wild whipsaws.

Jane Fox : 11/24/2008 9:37:37 AM

AD line is a healthy +1293

Jane Fox : 11/24/2008 9:37:23 AM

The week starts off with a 10:00ET Existing Home Sales report but is filled with many many more reports to let us know just how bad things are out there.

President Bush speaks at 10:35 today and we have President Elect Obama scheduled to speak at 12:00.

Keene Little : 11/24/2008 9:36:08 AM

Correction to my 9:24 AM post--the downtrend line from November 17th, not the 4th, will be broken this morning. The downtrend line from the 4th is the one that's up near 850 and a key level for the bulls to break.

Jane Fox : 11/24/2008 9:30:04 AM

I am reading the members of GM's board of directors are considering bankruptcy. They cited their top priority is seeking government help but will not dismiss the possibility of filing for bankruptcy. Last week CEO Rick Wagner told congress it was not an option

Jane Fox : 11/24/2008 9:25:42 AM

All markets (well at least the major indexes we watch here in the monitor) are trading above their respective previous day ranges. Link

Keene Little : 11/24/2008 9:24:06 AM

We've got a nice bullish start for the day. The first thing a gap up will do is firmly break the downtrend line from November 4th and that would indicate that leg down is complete. This should negate the possibility for a quick thrust lower today to a new low as depicted in dark red on the SPX 60-min chart. The bulls want to see a rally continue and break above 850. The first risk is for a gap n crap. If we do see a quick pullback the bulls will want to see no more than 50% of this morning's gap get filled.

Jane Fox : 11/24/2008 9:22:08 AM

Good morning and welcome a to shortened Thanksgiving Week. Late Sunday government regulators announced a $20 Billion lifeline to Citigroup to help it with some of its bad debt and and telegraph the government's commitment ahead of global markets opening Monday morning

The $20 billion will be used by the government to purchase preferred shares in Citigroup, and it comes on top of a similar $25 billion injection last month.

Regulators will also guarantee $306 billion worth of troubled mortgages and toxic assets.

Citigroup, formed in 1998 by the merger of Citicorp and Travelers Group Inc., has been especially hard-hit by its portfolio of risky mortgages. Two years ago, the bank was the largest by market value. After a year of steep losses, it now ranks fifth.

What I find interesting is the Citicorp and Travelers Group merger back in 1998 was the driving force behind the repeal of the Glass/Steagall Act paving the way for Citigroup to underwrite and trade instruments such as mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations and establish so-called structured investment vehicles, or SIVs, that bought those securities.

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 12:24:57 AM

ym08z +60 at 8,096

ym09h +96 at 8,084

Jeff Bailey : 11/24/2008 12:23:32 AM

Citigroup eyes putting risky assets in "bad bank" ... Reuters Story Link

Keene Little : 11/23/2008 11:51:03 PM

Monday's pivot table: Link

Starting with the SPX weekly chart and working in from there I want to show where I think we are and where we're headed: Link . Whether we get another new low this coming week, or next, we should now be close to getting a rally into early 2009. From a time standpoint it would fit well if we see a bounce take us into February. From a price standpoint I see several things pointing to a high of only about 950, or about 150 points above Friday's close. From there it should head back down into the April/May timeframe to put in a low for the year.

The daily chart zooms in a little on the leg down from November 4th which should be the final leg down before starting the bounce into next year: Link . The question in my mind is whether or not we've seen the final low before starting that bounce. A rally above 850 (breaking above the down-channel) would be a heads up that we've seen the year's low. Otherwise we could get a quick thrust lower on Monday/Tuesday (dark red) or a slightly bigger bounce before heading lower again. If we get a new low I'll be looking at it as a great buying opportunity.

Zooming in further on the 60-min chart shows the parallel down-channel and the possible bounce up to the top of it (pink) before heading lower into the end of this week (or first week of December if this week holds up bullish, which is typical for this week). As depicted in dark red, there is a downside Fib projection at 733 if we quickly drop to that level on Monday. 60-min chart: Link

For those who watch the DOW's levels, here is a weekly chart similar to the one for SPX to show how the move into April/May might look: Link

OI Technical Staff : 11/23/2008 9:59:59 PM

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