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Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 6:15:42 PM

Well, the snow is piling up here in Denver, CO. I'd better get to some shoveling. The winter wheat on the plains sure needed this moisture though. Precipitation Forecast Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 6:07:22 PM

SPX 10-minute interval chart at this close Link (see some of today's work)

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 5:55:45 PM

DDX.X 47.41 -6.56%

SNDK $8.08 -10.42% ... (see today's work)

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 5:52:04 PM

UYG $5.30 -3.10% ... (200x bull financial) couldn't close the WKLY Pivot. (see 02:31:01 PM)

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 5:33:47 PM

NYSE NH/NL finished 28:206. The 206 new lows begin to build back to most since 11/21/08 and suggests to me some softening at the bottom starting to resume again.

NASDAQ NH/NL finished 3:134. Post 11/21/08 greatest number of new lows was 265 on 11/24/08.

MONTHLY Pivot(s) begin to look more formidable resistance with the softening at the bottom.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 4:07:29 PM

FXE $127.96 +0.62% ... (with OIL down?) Rate cuts from ECB "should have" brought weakness. Sensing a CHANGE.

FXY 108.13 +1.31% ... major averages all lower. NO CHANGE.

FXB $146.53 -0.76% ... "makes sense" with rate cuts in UK.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 4:05:23 PM

DXY's 04:00 Tick was 86.51

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 4:03:01 PM

RUT.X with some slight color adjustments to trend. See the MACD on this 60-minute interval? Probably 0.00 with RUT.X at WKLY S1, or MONTHLY 38.2%? Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:56:54 PM

RUT.X 437.28 -3.63% ... has slipped below my "dashed green" upward trend. But relative to last week's regular session high/low/close, has not traded its WKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:54:15 PM

I should note ... "pigs" used as it relates to Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:50:04 PM

ANSWER: USO $35.26 -7.33% ... no BEARISH vertical count to assess risk to.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:49:31 PM

WHY is XOM and CVX weak today?

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:48:58 PM

Hey! You've got it. The "three BIG pigs!"

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:48:42 PM

IBM $76.97 -4.63%

XOM $75.70 -4.10%

CVX $71.19 -4.73% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:47:55 PM

DIA $83.51 -3.05% ... WKLY S1-ish.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:47:04 PM

But you've got to have a Guinea Pig or two ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:46:08 PM

So ... IF SPX trades MONTHLY Pivot, THEN check to indexes/sectors/stocks that have been showing LEADERSHIP and see how they are progressing. THEN perhaps take action if they are showing FURTHER strength, or at TECHNICAL LEVEL of SUPPORT for bounce.

ELSE, SPX/SPY trader may stay flat-to-short.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:43:35 PM

See, what MIGHT happen, IF the SPX were to ever challenge the MONTHLY Pivot, is we're going to need some type of STRENGTH index/sector/stock(s) to see if they are FURTHER leading the advance.

WHEN/IF the SPX challenges MONTHLY Pivot, or its NECKLINE, the work done now (even though it may be for not) will give some clues.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:41:45 PM

RLX.X 60-minute intervals; reverse h/s retracement, same stuff shown in others ... Link

Keene Little : 12/4/2008 3:37:53 PM

Next stop for SPX is the uptrend line from Monday afternoon, potentially the bottom of a sideways triangle consolidation pattern that could play out into next Monday before resolving to the upside, shown in pink on this 30-min chart: Link

That's the bullish setup although it could take a couple more days to do it. The bearish pattern calls for a break below 830 and head down at least to 795 where the decline from Friday, November 28th would have two equal legs down. That could also set up another rally leg to new highs into opex. A break below 795 would suggest we'll get at least a retest of the November 21st low if not a break of it (down to the 661 target).

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:36:14 PM

Here too, the RLX.X was an index that managed to close ABOVE its 21-day SMA yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:35:13 PM

RLX.X 265.78 +0.71% ... at its interpretive "neckline"

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:31:35 PM

Treasuries found a strong spat of buying today. Longest-dated 30-year fell 10 bp to 3.084%. (see yesterday's analysis/tie)

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:30:16 PM

NASDAQ a/d 853/1,966

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:30:02 PM

NYSE a/d 724/2,307

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:29:32 PM

This is certainly looking like a "close the lows" session.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:28:10 PM

See, the way I HAD been showing the table over the years was the DJUSHB as a "reaction" to news. The 223.55 is about where the DJUSHB is trading as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:26:34 PM

MBA Weekly Application Survey (table) that I keep at this Link

Showing Seasonally Adjusted Purchases Index and percentage change, as well as a tabulated 4-week and 12-week moving average. Then tie this FUNDAMENTAL information with DJUSHB.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:21:31 PM

What I did was "slide back" the DJUSHB closes one week, like I do for the USO and the EIA inventory data.

This then better reflects my core belief that the MARKET IS ALL KNOWING.

At last Friday's close, the DJUSHB was up 43.9% from week earlier.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:19:49 PM

I made a slight adjustment to my MBA weekly application survey table. I think yesterday's news was largely factored in.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:19:00 PM

PHM $11.49 +3.14% ...

DJUSHB 228.05 +6.70% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:18:15 PM

If long a home builder, I'd be looking to take/protect some profits here.

Keene Little : 12/4/2008 3:15:48 PM

SPX tagged its uptrend line from November 21st at 847. If that doesn't hold then I'd have to say the bounce from Monday is over, no matter how ugly the wave count is to the downside from this morning's high. When wave counts get ugly (usually from manipulation/interference) then go with the trend lines.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:13:30 PM

RUT.X 443.93 -2.16% ... sets up for test of "dashed green" upward trend. About 442.50

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:11:04 PM

SNKD $8.20 -9.09% ... can certainly gain some aspect of MARKET behavior.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:08:15 PM

EEV $78.03 +5.94% ... oil's weakness also notable.

OGZPY $15.00 -6.83% and PBR $17.29 -7.34% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:07:19 PM

The "energy" action is a concerne for SPY/SPX bulls as it relates to the MONTHLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:06:36 PM

INCREDIBLE volume observations in DUG and DIG.

Yesterday, I thought that 11/24/08 DUG volume might have been on the WRONG side of the trade.

Oil simply wouldn't bid.

Keene Little : 12/4/2008 3:05:40 PM

If we get another leg down today to another new daily low, watch SPX 850 which is where it would have two equal legs down from this morning's high. I'm not convinced yet that we're seeing anything more than a sideways choppy consolidation in which case 850 should hold. If it doesn't then I'm going to begin to feel cheated by Ms. Market for scaring me out of today's short entry.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:04:44 PM

Hey Jane! Great minds think alike.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:04:21 PM

USO $35.48 -6.75% ...

DIG $35.48 -6.75%

DUG $37.31 +11.40% ...

Jane Fox : 12/4/2008 3:04:15 PM

Crude is now down to $43.51 a level not seen since May 2003 - WOW!

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 3:02:07 PM

Not that the use of Link represents a sound mind. But that's how we have to break things down.

Look for something that "doesn't make" sense, then begin to work on it.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 2:59:51 PM

The "pattern of lower lows" also a bit concerning Keene. (wink)

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 2:58:56 PM

SPX 10-minute intervals Link

Keene Little : 12/4/2008 2:56:56 PM

My lesdyxia showed in my previous post when I said the uptrend line from Monday was at 835.50. I of course meant 853.50 and I've corrected my post.

Keene Little : 12/4/2008 2:56:06 PM

The downtrend line from November held SPX back again and now it has dropped sharply, looking bearish. This is one whacky market. The uptrend line from Monday afternoon is near 853.50 and the slightly longer-term uptrend line from November 21st is near 847 so we'll have to see which trend line wins this battle.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 2:50:38 PM

Maybe "click" the SPX to a 10-minute interval. Update the trend from 09/19/08 high to 11/04/08 high.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 2:43:36 PM

SNDK ... more of an institutional "T-chart" of supply/demand characteristics. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 2:39:34 PM

A pivot trader's "T-chart" would still have MONTHLY Pivot on the BEARISH side. WKLY Pivot about the MIDDLE. Daily Pivot (has held buyers today) on the BULLISH side.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 2:37:37 PM

Looks like a "stop run" coming ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 2:36:32 PM

Hey! SPX/SPY/ES traders. Take a "dotted short-term" downward trend from the 11/04/08 relative high, to the recent 11/28/08 relative high.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 2:33:10 PM

SPX's DAILY Pivot 857.87 (regular session derived)

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 2:32:25 PM

Sitting at its WKLY Pivot. Go figure.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 2:32:01 PM

SPX 863.28 -0.85% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 2:31:06 PM

UWM $17.09 -0.52% ... as a benchmark too from an 11/21 03:23:59 of about $13.70

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 2:31:01 PM

Hey! The UYG $5.79 +5.85% ... trying to show some muster above its WKLY Pivot.

See 11/21/08 Link MM and 11/25 (10:53:35) MM "mentionings" Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 2:21:38 PM

The $9.00 strike (about where SNDK stopped yesterday (give $0.23) about even at put $1,428,800 and call $1,585,700

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 2:19:48 PM

SNDK's $10.00, which might tie in with the little reverse h/s pattern had $786,900 put OI. Call OI was $3,103,700

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 2:18:09 PM

SNDK's $8.00 strike ... had $2,226,600 Put option value OI. $560,900 call OI.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 2:13:55 PM

SNDK's "Max Pain" theory tabulation for Dec was $8.00 at last night's close.

Keene Little : 12/4/2008 2:12:44 PM

SPX will be dealing with its downtrend line from November 4th again at 870. If it can break that and head up to the top of its bear flag again, that would take it up to the 890 area. Unfortunately there's now so much choppy price action up and down that I can't get a bead on this thing. That's when I step aside rather than force a trade.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 2:11:21 PM

That volume bar at 02:00 finished 203K

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 2:10:30 PM

SNDK 5-minute interval chart. This is "cat scan" of the brain Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 2:07:07 PM

Barry! Was that you? (wink)

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 2:05:49 PM

Check it out!

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 2:03:07 PM

SNDK ... now go to a 5-minute interval chart. Turn on your volume. See that volume spike today? See where it came from/at?

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 2:00:08 PM

SNDK's "5-MRT" GREEN #2 at $8.55.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 1:58:15 PM

SNDK ... DAILY Pivot at $8.33

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 1:56:27 PM

QQQQ $28.40 -0.80% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 1:56:10 PM

DDX.X $49.05 -3.35% ...

Keene Little : 12/4/2008 1:56:06 PM

The last bounce high near SPX 866 has been exceeded and that leaves today's decline as more of a correction than anything else. This is potentially bullish and I would step aside from any short positions now. We need to see where this is heading next.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 1:55:40 PM

SNDK alert! 8.50 (see reverse h/s pattern retracement)

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 1:54:16 PM

SNDK's relative strength to MARKET reversed back up into column of X on 11/28/08.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 1:53:17 PM

Dorsey/Wright classifies SNDK and belonging to the Computers sector bullish % ... Currently "bull alert" status at 15.69% (14% chart).

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 1:50:36 PM

SNDK PnF chart ... Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 1:47:12 PM

Always thinking as to WHY market participants are doing what they're doing.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 1:46:08 PM

SNDK $8.31 -7.87% ... might be some jittery NAKED calls even now. How would one hedge a NAKED call?

Jane Fox : 12/4/2008 1:44:02 PM

Today there has been 30,000 job cuts announced.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 1:44:18 PM

Thinking out loud Barry! As I've tried to teach over the years. ALWAYS ask why? But FOCUS on the technicals.

Good rumor though! As noted in prior chart and the UP and DOWN gaps of facts, we have an IDEA that there are interested parties in SNDK.

We KNOW that SNDK management didn't like the PRIOR offer.

As I remember, some NAKED call writers had an issue with SNDK on the UP gap from prior offer.

I don't like to think "luck" is part of trading, but that gap UP on the buyout offer was "bad luck" indeed.

Keene Little : 12/4/2008 1:39:45 PM

From the bounce high near 12:45 PM it looks like another smaller 5-wave move down. Another bounce here to a lower high should set the stage for stronger selling to follow (following the 1-2, 1-2 setup to the downside from this morning's high). A rally back above SPX 866 would negate that bearish wave count setup and be potentially bullish (or just more chop).

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 1:39:36 PM

One could say the SMH is part of the "rodent family"

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 1:38:59 PM

SMH an "index" that doesn't have a reverse h/s pattern showing on 60-minute intervals. However, we KNOW where it is at relative to the pivot and pivot retracement levels. TREND, etc.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 1:37:11 PM

SNDK is NOT a component of the SMH Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 1:35:04 PM

SNDK very small at 0.30% ... but like a "brain" of an index, should it catch fire to the upside, might spark other "disk/chip" related names.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 1:33:45 PM

NDX/QQQQ component weights as of 09/30/08 Source: CBOE Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 1:28:14 PM

NASDAQ-100 Heatmap Link ... Now, I'm not sure how much "index weight" SNDK has, but it is a component.

Keene Little : 12/4/2008 1:26:52 PM

Someone on MM asking why SNDK down? Rumors of a Toshiba buyout squashed. That is why.

Thanks Barry.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 1:26:13 PM

With SNDK, I'm showing a "smaller" reverse h/s pattern POTENTIAL. Where I "anchor" could indeed be a "bigger" h/s pattern potential, where the "anchor" is a left shoulder. Head still where it is at. Neckline horizontal at $11.00.

Always start out "small" and be more conservative.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 1:21:11 PM

SanDisk (SNDK) 60-minute interval chart, zooming in Link

Keene Little : 12/4/2008 1:17:13 PM

Breaking down now. The uptrend line from Monday (bottom of the bear flag) is currently near SPX 850 so that becomes a key level to the downside.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 1:13:31 PM

Ooooo ... turn on the volume too. (see last night's Wrap)

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 1:10:08 PM

crazy isn't it? SNDK $8.20 -9.20% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 1:08:04 PM

OK, now let's get out the microscope. Zoom in a bit, still on 60-minute intervals. Let's get a neckline in place. How about an ascending neckline. Take a trend from the 10/28/08 low, then anchor at the "arm pit" and the 11/13/08 high close. See the extension of the trend? See the "jitters" yesterday? See SNDK right now?

Keene Little : 12/4/2008 1:07:44 PM

Bonds just squirted higher and are making new daily highs and the 30-year is pressing up against the top of its potential rising wedge pattern (from October). A little throw-over above it followed by a decline tomorrow would give us a sell signal.

Keene Little : 12/4/2008 1:04:02 PM

Selling should start to accelerate if we're about to start the 3rd wave down.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 1:03:26 PM

SNDK News ... why is it down? Is there news today? Link

Answer: Not specific.

Why the selling?

Answer(s): 1) Technical at trend. 2)AMD-driven profit taking.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 1:00:23 PM

Aha! ... SNDK .... Begin analysis with a TREND from 09/18/08 high to lower 09/26/08 high. Note the trend.

SNDK 60-minute interval chart, with some information from the New England Journal of Guinea Pig Medicine. Link

Keene Little : 12/4/2008 1:02:53 PM

The move down from today's high fits as a leading diagonal 1st wave (a bit funky looking but it fits, and allows for overlap between the 2nd and 4th waves of the pattern). If so then we should see the current bounce fail at or below SPX 869 (62% of the decline). Above 872 (78.6%) would suggest we've got new highs coming.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 12:51:06 PM

OK ... let's call SNDK $7.99 -1.41% ... "the brain."

HTCH will be "the heart"

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 12:49:39 PM

DDX.X Weightings Link

Jane Fox : 12/4/2008 12:49:14 PM

Bernanke says he thinks 15 to 20 % of mortgages are underwater.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 12:46:40 PM

DDX.X and Guinea Pig Components Link

I am a scientist. I know all the internal parts of my subject.

I know what other stocks can influence the brain, the heart, the kidneys, the liver, the lungs.

Keene Little : 12/4/2008 12:42:25 PM

This morning's low for SPX held but so far the little bounce looks corrective so I expect new lows. Price action seems to be a little slow today.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 12:40:58 PM

DDX.X 60-minute interval chart. Added MONTHLY Pivot retracement (dark purple) and turned on QCharts' WKLY Pivot Levels. I know where the MAJOR averages are relative to their MONTHLY Pivots. Link

Examination/analysis of the Guinea Pig on chart.

Jane Fox : 12/4/2008 12:40:47 PM

I am reading the Governor of the People's Bank of China made an unscheduled visit to the US today for a meeting with Bernanke. Odd since Paulson is now in China apparently.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 12:25:37 PM

DDX.X 48.35 -4.71% ... has slipped back under a correlative "neckline" (see last night's Market Wrap) and its MONTHLY Pivot. WKLY Pivot 46.62.

Keene Little : 12/4/2008 12:21:27 PM

The drop from this morning's high is also overlapping between the highs and lows and that makes it look either corrective or very bearish (1-2, 1-2 to the downside). If it's bearish it will soon sell off hard. If it's a corrective pullback we're going to get a new daily high. If you want to reduce your risk in a short play trail your stop down to just above the last bounce high.

Jeff Bailey : 12/4/2008 12:07:18 PM

SPY and VIX.X 10-minute interval montage Link

Keene Little : 12/4/2008 11:49:04 AM

We have now broken the succession of higher lows in the bounce off this morning's low so we've got our sell signal. The top should be in and stops on short plays should be set just above today's highs for now.

Keene Little : 12/4/2008 11:44:50 AM

The 30-year bond (ZB December emini) reached my target of 134 this morning and looks good for an ending pattern. Possibly one more minor push higher for them. Shorting TLT is a recommendation. TLT is currently trading 110.70 and I would place my stop at 113 for now.

The setup in the bonds has me wondering what it could mean for stocks. If bonds start to sell off it could free up cash for buying stocks. Currently I've got a bearish pattern on both stocks and bonds so it looks like they'll sell off together. But it has me wondering and a bit cautious (required in this whippy market anyway).

Jane Fox : 12/4/2008 11:18:35 AM

Although the VIX is committed to the bulls today (so far) the AD line and volume have not been so sure and bouncing from below 0 to above then back again. This makes direction hard to figure out. Link

Keene Little : 12/4/2008 10:59:58 AM

The push higher since this moring's pullback looks more like an ending pattern than the start of something more bullish. I don't see anything yet that has me thinking the bulls are going to get too much more out of this. Any drop back below the succession of higher lows this morning will be a sell signal.

Keene Little : 12/4/2008 10:57:27 AM

The downtrend line from November 4th is now near SPX 874 so it's being tested now.

Jane Fox : 12/4/2008 10:53:24 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Either the Federal Reserve or the Treasury Department could use their existing authority to provide emergency loans to the struggling automakers, said Gene Dodaro, acting head of the Government Accountability Office. Senate Democrats have insisted that the Treasury could include the automakers in its $700 billion bailout fund, but Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has said the money can only be used for financial companies. Dodaro said the legislation "is worded broadly enough" to allow Paulson to lend to General Motors, Chrysler and Ford Executives of the automakers are on Capitol Hill on Thursday to plead for $34 billion in emergency loans they say they need by the end of the year.

Keene Little : 12/4/2008 10:35:10 AM

The bulls and bears are duking it out pretty good here. My bet is on the bears but so far the bulls are putting up a good fight. Just not sure if the bulls are going to be able to put in one more minor new high (SPX 878-880) first.

Jane Fox : 12/4/2008 10:20:49 AM

... a low not since since September 2003.

Jane Fox : 12/4/2008 10:19:26 AM

Crude has hit a low of $45.20 so far today.

Keene Little : 12/4/2008 10:10:07 AM

The small 5th wave does not need to make it up to the top of the channel and has already met the minimum requirements for it so stay aware this bounce could fail at any moment.

Keene Little : 12/4/2008 10:08:57 AM

Looking at the parallel up-channel from Monday's low and the wave count I see the possibility for a push up to SPX 878-880 to finish a 5-wave count up from yesterday afternoon (looks like a small ending diagonal kind of move). 10-min chart: Link

Jane Fox : 12/4/2008 10:04:55 AM

Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. chairwoman Sheila Bair said Thursday that a proposal the Treasury Department is reportedly contemplating that would cut mortgage rates for new loans for homes, is constructive but it wouldn't help homeowners in need. "Getting mortgage rates down definitely is positive but it doesn't help people that currently have unaffordable mortgages because it doesn't help them refinance," Bair told reporters after speaking at a Consumer Federation of America conference in Washington. "Low interest rates help some consumers but the ones that really need help and can't refinance are not helped." Under the proposed measure, Treasury would offer to buy securities that finance newly issued loans for home purchases. To participate, mortgage lenders would need to set mortgage rates as low as 4.5% points for 30-year-fixed-rate loans, roughly 1% point lower than current rates. As part of the proposal under consideration, Treasury would buy mortgage securities backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, in addition to those guaranteed by the Federal Housing Administration.

Jane Fox : 12/4/2008 10:04:36 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- New orders for manufactured goods fell 5.1% in October, the biggest decline since 2000, the Commerce Department reported Thursday, as new orders for transportation equipment dropped. Action Economics analysts had expected overall new orders to fall 5%. New orders for durable goods fell a revised 6.9%, compared with 6.2% estimated last week. October's drop in overall orders is the third consecutive months of declines, following drops of 3.1% in September and 4.3% in August. Nondurable goods orders in October fell 3.4%. Core capital equipment orders fell 5%.

Jane Fox : 12/4/2008 9:58:05 AM

The bulls have the ball now but the AD line still needs to improve a lot before I would feel real comfortable with a long position. Link

Jane Fox : 12/4/2008 9:56:36 AM

AD line is now to -83 a huge improvement.

Keene Little : 12/4/2008 9:53:20 AM

The quick dip this morning caused SPX to overlap with the 861.11 high just before 3:00 PM yesterday so we continue to get a choppy climb up within the bear flag pattern. If it does push back up to a new high this morning and I get stopped out I'll be watching for a quick reentry into another short position if it fails at or below 875.

Jane Fox : 12/4/2008 9:40:58 AM

AD line has fallen to -1340 but the VIX is falling as well and the markets seem to be following the VIX's lead this morning. The bearish AD line however, should keep you very watchful if you should take a long position.

Jane Fox : 12/4/2008 9:39:24 AM

I also see where Secretary Paulson is speaking at 11:05PM but that doesn?t seem too likely.

Jane Fox : 12/4/2008 9:37:34 AM

We have FOMC Fisher speaking at 9:15

10:00 Factory Orders will be released.

11:15 FOMA FED chairman Bernanke speaks

4:0 FOMC Kroszner speaks.

Jane Fox : 12/4/2008 9:35:34 AM

Actually the AD line opens quite bearish at -1050.

Jane Fox : 12/4/2008 9:32:45 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Initial jobless claims fell to a one-month low but a less volatile average rose to its highest level in sixteen years, Labor Department data released Thursday showed.

The number of workers filing for state unemployment benefits fell by 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 509,000 for the week ending Nov. 29, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

It's the lowest number of initial jobless claims since the week ended Nov. 1. Claims have dropped for two straight weeks after hitting a sixteen year high of 543,000.

Jane Fox : 12/4/2008 9:30:25 AM

Overnight markets found resistance at previous day highs giving you a very good idea where resistance will be today. The lower low made at around 5:30 also tells us the bears have control but since the low was only a 50% retracement of yesterday's range I suspect the AD line will open rather neutral. Link

Jane Fox : 12/4/2008 9:22:00 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- AT&T Inc. on Thursday said it would cut 12,000 jobs, or 4% of its workforce, and spend less on new equipment in 2009 in response to a weakening economy.

The Dallas-based phone giant becomes the latest large U.S. company to announce major layoffs. In the phone industry, Sprint Nextel Corp. has already started trimming its workforce.

DuPont separately announced job cuts on Thursday.

AT&T also cited streamlining efforts and a "changing business mix" as reasons for the job reductions. The company noted that it's still hiring in its stronger businesses such as wireless, video and high-speed Internet.

Keene Little : 12/4/2008 9:21:27 AM

It looks like it will be 4 for 4 this week with another reversal of the previous day's close. We'll be starting back down today with a gap down. If you got into a short position near yesterday's close your stop is easy now--just above yesterday's high.

Keene Little : 12/3/2008 10:44:45 PM

Thursday's pivot table: Link

Wednesday afternoon's rally took SPX right up near the downtrend line from November 4th (875) as well as a Fib projection for the possible completion of the bounce (873.94 and the high for the day was at 873.12). Therefore I had recommended a short play at the end of day. The setup requires an immediate move back down on Thursday morning and therefore if it does more than a quick pop up at the open then cover your short position as we wait to see what happens next.

The 60-min chart shows, in dark red, the expectation for a continuation of the selling down to at least 800 before much of a bounce and possibly much lower. But if the rally continues on Thursday we should see a move up to potential resistance at 914-917 with further upside potential to 970 (shown in pink). Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/3/2008 10:07:58 PM

UAW grants concessions, exec warns of depression ... AP Story Link

OI Technical Staff : 12/3/2008 9:59:59 PM

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