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Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 7:24:59 PM

Last three (3) weekly Pivot Matrix Link

TNX.X only thing measured that didn't trade WKLY Pivot.

Actual Week's range of trade compressing a bit.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 7:13:47 PM

Index Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link

Jane and I both noted on Monday some very "wild" TRIN measures. I'm going to use those displayed, but will do so with questioning.

However, if correct, then we do know TRIN can only go to 0.00, but if extreme selling pressure like Monday, then we should error on the higher measure of 9.39.

Monthly Point and Pct changes are also those for this week.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 6:55:15 PM

DXY traded its WEEKLY range yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 6:43:59 PM

DIA did trade entire week's range today. Close there MONTHLY Pivot by a hair.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 6:40:38 PM

NDX traded nearly entire week's range today!

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 6:27:02 PM

WKLY R1 as good as any with tie of 900.00 as the neckline.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 6:26:10 PM

SPX's WKLY Pivot Levels for next week are ...

793.33, 834.70, Piv= 857.06, 898.43, 920.79.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 6:03:23 PM

SPX closes above its WKLY Pivot for 2nd-straight week.

Last time it was able to do this was the week of September 15, 2008 to September 19.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 5:58:54 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 5:51:47 PM

XLF finished $12.81 +7.91% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 5:50:49 PM

VXO.X 62.94 -10.34%
RVX.X 70.20 -4.28% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 4:17:57 PM

That's 10.23% in mind's eye.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 4:17:29 PM

HIG went out $14.59 +102.35 ... The stag was running today!

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 4:16:03 PM

Hartford more than doubles in price on outlook ... Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 4:11:02 PM

Or ... "takes"

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 4:10:50 PM

Keep a little and see what Monday brings!

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 4:10:12 PM

That'll put some diesel in the land yacht!

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 4:02:08 PM

Selling long some SNDK in personal accounts $9.24 near the close.

Keene Little : 12/5/2008 4:01:09 PM

Looks like the market is going to close right at its highs. The bulls really don't want to do this. The next trading day has not been kind to them when they do this.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 3:55:39 PM

GG bulls now have a pretty firm stop observation and the MONTHLY S1 (20.02) and Quarterly S1 (20.03) overlap.

Keene Little : 12/5/2008 3:54:15 PM

I think it's a good short entry here--take home a couple of put options just in case the market starts down with a gap down on Monday. At least that's the setup. If it doesn't start down right away then just give them back.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 3:51:17 PM

GoldCorp (GG) $21.51 -4.40% ... comes to trend after break this morning. Trend from 10/24 low to 11/13 pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 3:49:23 PM

CYC.X 453.67 +2.41% ... you wouldn't believe it unless you saw it!

Jane Fox : 12/5/2008 3:49:10 PM

S&P futures and the VIX have been in sync today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 3:47:23 PM

VIX.X 60.25 -5.32% ...

Jane Fox : 12/5/2008 3:47:12 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Tightening credit and recession fears have led U.S. consumers to reduce their debt in October for the second time in the past three months. Total seasonally adjusted consumer debt decreased by $3.54 billion, or a 1.6% annual rate, in October to $2.58 trillion, the Federal Reserve reported Friday. Consumer credit rose at a 3.1 % pace in September after dropping a record 3.0% in August. Non-revolving credit - such as auto loans, personal loans and student loans - had the biggest drop in October, falling by $3.3 billion, or 2.5%, to $1.60 trillion. Credit-card debt fell by a slim $181 million, or 0.2%, in October to $976 million.

Jane Fox : 12/5/2008 3:44:29 PM

Here is your monthly chart of Crude. Link

Jane Fox : 12/5/2008 3:41:56 PM

My goodness gracious Crude's low of the day is $40.50. Whoa!

Keene Little : 12/5/2008 3:41:54 PM

I usually get most frustrated with the market when we're inside a 4th or B wave and right now my frustration level is telling me that's probably what we're in. If SPX closes around 878 today I think it would be a good setup for a reversal on Monday (typical no-follow-through market). If it manages to get higher than 880 and hold then the next upside Fib projection target is near 915. Notice that SPX is currently testing (again) its broken uptrend line from November 21st. 60-min chart update: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 3:40:45 PM

Mind's eye +1.28% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 3:40:17 PM

IUX.X 139.35 +12.87% ... early morning green, continues to inch higher.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 3:39:17 PM

OIH $66.29 +0.80% ... perhaps today's "Comeback Kid"

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 3:37:52 PM

HAS NOT been able to see a 5-minute interval close BELOW.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 3:37:18 PM

VIX.X alert! 60.14 -5.49% ... undercuts MONTHLY Pivot. Observe chart this week, know what to look for. What DIVERGES from the pattern.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 3:36:21 PM

SPX ... using Thursday's high (due to gap lower Monday) ... if the SPX were to close 866 ...

WKLY Pivot levels for next week would be ...

792.52, 829.26, Piv= 852.43, 889.17, 912.34.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 3:32:17 PM

What a day, what a week for pivot and h/s pattern traders.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 3:31:33 PM

And here we are again ...

VIX.X 60.78

SPX 866.83

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 3:29:01 PM

Table of Consumer Credit (Aug, Sep, Oct) Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 3:25:49 PM

SanDisk (SNDK) $9.06 +12.12% ... has broken trend ... "tentative" at Wednesday's high.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 3:23:57 PM

SPX.X 869.35 +2.85% ... best levels here. Challenges "dashed green" upward trend.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 3:21:59 PM

dj- Sep Consumer Credit Revised to Up $6.7 Billion from Up $6.9 Billion

Keene Little : 12/5/2008 3:21:09 PM

Since NDX is looking stronger than the others right now, I'll watch it for some clues as to whether we've got a stronger rally ahead of us or about to finish the current leg up. The move up from Monday's low would have two equal legs up at 1173.69. That could then be followed by another decline below Monday's low.

The reason I continue to lean more bearish than bullish, or certainly not trust the upside here, has to do with the rally leg off Monday's low to yesterday's high. It is very corrective and leads me to believe it's now part of a larger corrective bounce rather than the start of something bigger to the upside. We're in the middle of what will be one of the worst trading environments, one that will be full of whipsaws with no follow through. This week has been a perfect example of it so far.

If NDX reaches the 1173-1174 level and appears to be stalling I would protect any profits you might have in a long position and think about looking for another reversal back down again. The equivalent level for two equal legs up for SPX is at 878.32.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 3:19:56 PM

dj- US Consumer Credit Falls Second Time In Three Months

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 3:19:32 PM

dj- US Oct. Consumer Credit Decreased $3.5 Billion

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 3:16:05 PM

VIX.X 61.40 -3.51% ... DAILY S1/WKLY Pivot/M Pivot has the triple-overlap.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 3:15:12 PM

SPX 861.97 +1.98% ... now battles "dashed red" trend.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 3:12:32 PM

A/D lines both rather squared up ...

NYSE 1,798/1,205

NASDAQ 1,714/1,052

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 2:54:44 PM

CYC.X 446.17 +0.71% ... inches green.

Jane Fox : 12/5/2008 2:49:44 PM

It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas!!! And the bulls' Christmas present's are coming early. Link

Keene Little : 12/5/2008 2:46:30 PM

This is clearly looking bullish now. Stand aside if thinking short.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 2:46:05 PM

RLX.X 273.60 +2.56% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 2:45:49 PM

Wal-Mart (WMT) $57.20 +3.81% ... 150-day SMA alert! ... above all major SMA's.

Keene Little : 12/5/2008 2:32:44 PM

SPX can tolerate a little higher, potentially up to about 860 where it would retest its broken uptrend line from November 21st and its downtrend line from November 4th. Like NDX it could still stay stuck inside a sideways triangle pattern with a turn back down (won't know until, and if, it gets back to the bottom of the triangle). 30-min chart: Link

The problem with a new high for SPX is that NDX would likely give us a bullish confirmation of a break to the north so continue to watch how NDX does around 1158 if it gets there. This remains one very challenging market to figure out.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 2:22:40 PM

QQQQ $27.99

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 2:22:17 PM

SMH $15.62 -1.20% ... stalls at WKLY S1.

Keene Little : 12/5/2008 2:20:07 PM

NDX 30-min chart shows the setup--the downtrend line from November 26th needs to break for the bulls, currently near 1158, while the bears need to see that level hold back the buyers. If we do see the downtrend line hold there remains the potential for a sideways triangle to play out, shown in pink: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 2:14:16 PM

SPX.X 841.75 -0.41% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 2:13:58 PM

TNX.X 2.629% ... up 5.9bp. WKLY S2 just ahead.

Equity bulls HUNGER for cash.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 2:12:21 PM

Incredible pivot action today.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 2:11:40 PM

USO $34.16 -3.53% ... after check-back to MONTHLY S1/MONTHLY Pivot retracement overlap.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 2:10:12 PM

SPX 847.33 +0.24% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 2:09:07 PM

call buyers/puts sellers about equal to yesterday's call sellers/put buyers

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 2:07:44 PM

VIX.X 63.21 -0.67% ... low has been 63.05. DPiv 62.98

Keene Little : 12/5/2008 2:07:06 PM

The move up from this morning's low, especially on the techs, may have been a 1-2, 1-2 to the upside and the spike up is the 3rd of a 3rd wave up. If true then we should see small consolidations followed by stair-stepping higher. The downtrend line for NDX from November 26th is currently near 1158 and that's the line in the sand for the bears--above that and I suspect we're into the new rally leg to a high above the November 26th high. This is also why a rally above SPX 855 would be a bullish heads up for that index.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 2:03:21 PM

XAL.X's 200-day SMA just ahead at 22.21.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 2:02:20 PM

XAL.X 21.90 +6.95% ... 150-day SMA alert!

Keene Little : 12/5/2008 1:59:49 PM

OK, tagged 847 but it's not stopping yet. Just under 854 is a 62% retracement of yesterday's decline. Above that and I'll start thinking something a little more bullish, but not yet.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:55:49 PM

CYC.X 439.79 -0.72% ... session highs.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:54:49 PM

RUT.X 445.55 +1.36% ... at the piv

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:54:24 PM

QQQQ $28.11 +1.07% ... prarie dogs its DPiv

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:53:34 PM

NYSE a/d running 1,308/1,655

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:53:19 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,419:1,270

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:52:39 PM

SPX 844.89 -0.03% ... DPIV at 851.43

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:52:00 PM

VIX.X 63.70 +0.09% ... set to test DAILY Pivot.

Keene Little : 12/5/2008 1:51:30 PM

That's also right at the previous 4th wave (wave (iv) on the 5-min chart) and a common retracement level for a correction.

Keene Little : 12/5/2008 1:50:37 PM

Not much of a pullback before pressing higher again. Two equal legs up from the last pullback near 12:45 PM (826.45) gives us an upside target of 847 to watch for failure and a short entry.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:48:58 PM

RUT.X 442.55 +0.68% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:48:39 PM

COMPX +0.10% ... inches green

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:46:32 PM

IBM $77.02 -0.54% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:46:04 PM

Last hour interval also a "doji"

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:45:37 PM

Now check out the CYX.X 60-minute interval. See the "doji" at today's low?

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:44:18 PM

TRAN 3,297.66 -2.09% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:43:10 PM

Would be VERY negative if the econ sensitive airliners were WEAK with oil getting drilled.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:42:43 PM

XAL.X 21.34 +3.79% ... presses best levels of the session.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:41:34 PM

"On three; break!"

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:41:11 PM

Good gravy Keene ... sounds like the Bronco's offensive huddle play call.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:40:01 PM

TRIN 1.01

TRINQ 1.75

Keene Little : 12/5/2008 1:39:53 PM

For the bounce pattern, if it's to turn into a double zigzag (a-b-c up, x-wave pullback and then another a-b-c up) we should get a pullback that holds above today's uptrend line and then one more leg up to finish the bounce. I should be able to get a good upside target as the last leg up gets underway but for now I like the 844 area for an upside target. 5-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:39:17 PM

OIX.X -3.35%
OIH -1.41%
XNG.X -5.63%

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:38:36 PM

BIX.X +2.59%
BKX.X +1.98%
XBD +4.17%
IUX.X +8.22%

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:37:51 PM

SPX 839.75 -0.64% ... sticks its head above trend.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:36:48 PM

CYC.X 435.50 -1.69% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:36:27 PM

RLX.X 266.89 +0.05% ... inches green.

Little rays of bullish sunlight.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:26:49 PM

Me wonders just what Jane shorted just prior to 11:15:40 ... Maybe a "right shoulder" ?

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:23:23 PM

DDX.X 47.47 +0.12% ... inches back green.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:18:19 PM

HUI.X 200.00

GG $20.64

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:16:57 PM

SPX 838.87 -0.75% ... on trend.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:16:32 PM

01:10 PM Market Watch ... NYSE and NASDAQ a/d. SPX and VIX 10-minute intervals Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:08:00 PM

Getting feed for Utilities HOLDRs (UTH) $87.00 -3.68% ... QC5.01

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:06:53 PM

FXE $126.66 -1.07% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:06:38 PM

GLD $73.62 -2.49% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:06:12 PM

GG $20.41 -9.28% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:05:54 PM

HUI.X 199.50 -5.44% ... comes to 200.00 strike.

Keene Little : 12/5/2008 1:05:52 PM

We've got a 3-wave bounce so far off this morning's low and some overlap now between the highs and lows of the bounce. The correction of the decline from yesterday's high should take more time and make it higher so the SPX 846 price target by this afternoon is still on track.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:04:53 PM

SNDK $8.74 +8.16% ... coiling at WKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:03:45 PM

FXY 108.52 +0.37% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:02:43 PM

SPX 829.49 -1.86% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:02:21 PM

5-year YIELD up 4.7 bp and comes to DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 12:56:49 PM

NYSE, NASDAQ, SPX and RUT NH/NL table I track at this Link

I don't get SPX and RUT.X until later in the evening.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 12:44:14 PM

But they're looking at DJUSHB +4.44% and the financials and their ears on perked up.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 12:43:07 PM

Bears are more than likely going to press the issue at the SPX trend

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 12:42:36 PM

NASDAQ NL now more than yesterday's 134.

Was a bit surprised earlier this morning (see 10:19:48)

See last night's

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 12:41:03 PM

NYSE NH/NL 23:279

NASDAQ NH/NL 0:147 ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 12:39:26 PM

Financials holding modest bid, yet energy getting whacked.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 12:38:59 PM

VIX.X sitting on QRTRLY R2 still somewhat "bearish" ....

T-Chart with SPX still below MONTHLY Pivot and WKLY Pivot also bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 12:37:58 PM

SPX and VIX.X 10-minute intervals Link

Noting VIX traded its WKLY R1 about 10-minute before SPX traded the important near-term 818.70 level of MONTHLY Pivot retracement support.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 12:33:19 PM

Oooooeeee ... SPX and VIX

Keene Little : 12/5/2008 12:29:11 PM

Looking at the trend line along the lows of the decline in USO shows potential support closer to 30 (currently trading just under 34): Link

Keene Little : 12/5/2008 12:25:44 PM

This is the monthly chart I showed in last night's newsletter for oil (continuous contract): Link . It has now dropped down to the October 1990 high at 41.15. Whether it will find support here or a little lower at 37 or 34 is the big question. But we should be getting close to a good play on the long side (using USO).

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 12:23:55 PM

SPX 832.62 -1.49% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 12:22:16 PM

VIX.X 65.26 +2.49% ....

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 12:18:02 PM

Session high stopped dead at QCharts' WKLY R1 (66.58).

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 12:17:12 PM

VIX's DAILY Pivot is 62.98.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 12:16:23 PM

"Jittery, yet calm" ... easy does it bulls and bears.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 12:15:56 PM

VIX.X 64.56 +1.41% ... sitting on QRTRLY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 12:11:25 PM

Gott'a be a buyer of GG $20.26 -9.95% here again. Don't you?

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 12:08:11 PM

C, BAC, HIG, F, GE, JPM, CHK, GM, XOM and WFC are most active at big board.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 12:05:19 PM

CYC.X 432.78 -2.20% now ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 12:04:11 PM

UWM 15.73 -2.29% ... but session high.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 12:03:21 PM

UYG $5.41 +2.07% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 12:02:43 PM

BIX.X 136.55 ++1.13% ... probes 21-day SMA from underneath. Has NOT been able to hold a close above since falling below on 11/06/08

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 11:59:55 AM

EEV and its BIG 3 montage Link

CHL has been strong. Gazprom comes to reseistance. PBR still holding the recent low.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 11:47:57 AM

Jittery creatures indeed ...

Keene Little : 12/5/2008 11:47:48 AM

Updating the SPX 60-min chart, I'm showing the two higher-probability scenarios as I now see them. A bounce into this afternoon should lead to lower lows into Monday and the first downside Fib target is near 795 (two equal legs down from November 28th). From there we could see another rally leg kick off (pink) and it would have an upside target near 950, probably by the end of the week. The bearish scenario (dark red) calls for selling to continue through next week down towards the 661 target. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 11:47:46 AM

BIX +0.83%
BKX.X +0.56%
XBD +0.30%

IUX.X +3.59% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 11:46:05 AM

DJUSHB daily interval. Adjusted our PINK with the "drag it down" Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 11:41:33 AM

Provides a new "zone of resistance" that makes sense with yesterday's action.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 11:41:05 AM

Still keeps the prior "zone of resistance"

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 11:39:18 AM

OK, here's what I'm doing with the DJUSHB followed from several weeks ago. I'm "dragging down" the PINK to the 11/21/08 close.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 11:37:16 AM

DJUSHB is battling that 07/15/08 low.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 11:36:29 AM

IUX.X +2.60% ...

DJUSHB +2.43% ...

Only equity-based currently green.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 11:34:01 AM

I should say the h/s patterns (tops or bottoms) are MORE POWERFUL on MONTHLY (bigger the pattern the more powerful). Then WEEKLY, then DAILY.

60-minutes is about as far as traders should go in my opinion.

Keene Little : 12/5/2008 11:32:51 AM

This daily NDX chart shows a wider view of the 60-min chart to show how it could play out this month: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 11:32:12 AM

Apache Corp. (APA) .. that was then Link

See the undercut on the right shoulder? That's what we need to be somewhat cognizant of today.

See the volume spike on the right shoulder?

That's the passage of stock from weak hands to strong.

Keene Little : 12/5/2008 11:29:53 AM

Looking at NDX, if we get a bounce into this afternoon it could give us another test of its downtrend line from November 4th through the November 26th high, currently near 1130. That should then be followed by a continuation of the decline, dark red on this 60-min chart: Link

The pink wave count calls for two equal legs down from the November 26 high (1067) and then another rally leg up to near 1250 (two equal legs up from November 21st). The reason I keep referring to two-equal-leg moves is because of the corrective structure of the wave pattern and all the a-b-c moves. Otherwise a break below 1067 would be a heads up that the move down to the 950-1000 area is unfolding.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 11:25:45 AM

Crazy ... APA $58.04 -11.38% ... chart coming from late 2001, early 2002.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 11:23:10 AM

PnF chart was starting to shape up ... was incredible.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 11:21:56 AM

As I remember, Nat. Gas futures were just getting above the $2.00 mark. Company's chief production guy called us back, answered several of our questions about nat gas prices starting to recover. He thought prices might actually go to $4.00!

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 11:20:05 AM

Long-time subscribers will remember that volume in APA years ago (daily intervals) that was the "bottom" in APA as one of the greatest bull markets unleashed.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 11:18:44 AM

SPY 60-minute interval with "messed up volume" Link

One of the key times when volume matters most.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 11:16:16 AM

My volume is still "messed up" on the SPY ... how is volume looking here at test of "right shoulder"

Jane Fox : 12/5/2008 11:15:40 AM

WE may have seen a bottom because the short position I just took was stopped after a successful long. This usually means a changing of the guard.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 11:14:29 AM

More buy-side, or less sell-side pressure in NYSE-listed stocks

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 11:14:01 AM

TRINQ 2.13

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 11:13:50 AM

TRIN 0.82

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 11:13:19 AM

11:05 Market Watch Link

Jane Fox : 12/5/2008 11:08:46 AM

Well that was nice long trade but would certainly not be trying to get long again. Not with the AD line at -1783, I don't care what the VIX is telling me.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 11:06:02 AM

SPX.X 826.19 -2.25% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 11:05:47 AM

BIX.X +0.56%

BKX.X +0.72%

XBD.X +0.16%

IUX.X +2.91% ... be alert!

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 11:04:41 AM

IBM $75.98 -1.88% ... I know IBM is a component of CYC.X. Can't remember if CYC.X is equal weighted index though.

IBM would also be testing .

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 10:59:10 AM

What I like to do is this ... Measure the current PERCENTAGE undercut/violation of the LEFT shoulder (431.81) and the CYC.X's current low 424.49.

IF this is just a "stop run" where bulls may have placed stops a bit too tight, then the PERCENTAGE below may help others know where to set stops.

I come up with a 1.69% violation.

Keene Little : 12/5/2008 10:57:06 AM

That new low by SPX was not matched by NDX so we've got some bullish non-confirmation of the low. That one might have been it for the morning. If so we now have a retracement target near 846 by 2:40 PM.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 10:55:41 AM

Morgan Stanley Cyclical (CYC.X) 60-minute interval chart Link

Perhaps a "chart of the hour" for the 60-minute interval h/s bottom pattern.

Jane Fox : 12/5/2008 10:53:43 AM

When the internals are bearish like this I will take a long position but it will be quick and I will not take a reentry type of trade. I will however take trade after trade short but picky with the long trades. Link

Keene Little : 12/5/2008 10:47:12 AM

Well, no bottom yet.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 10:45:54 AM

Hartford (HIG) $10.25 +42.02% ... #15 most active. This is probably the component in the IUX.X

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 10:44:20 AM

Merrill Lynch (MER) $11.89 -0.16% ... also at WKLY Pivot. #5 most active.

Keene Little : 12/5/2008 10:42:42 AM

Slight correction on my 10-min chart--I didn't have the time projection snapped to this morning's low so that moves the 62% time projection to 2:00 PM (a typical turn window for the day). But first we need to determine whether or not we've seen the low for the morning. Obviously retracements and time projections will change if the market drops lower first.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 10:39:03 AM

UYG $5.23 -1.32% ... (200x financial) holding tough and after having retraced 61.8% of its 11/21/08 low to recent 11/28/08 bounce high, now sits at 38.2% retracement.

Keene Little : 12/5/2008 10:37:28 AM

Assuming for the moment that we've seen the completion of the 5th wave down for the leg down from yesterday's high, this 10-min chart shows the Fib retracement levels to watch and a Fib time projection based on the length of time it took for the decline from yesterday's high: Link

I'm counting the move down as the 1st wave of what will become a larger 5-wave move down to a new low this month (this is the bearish scenario). The typical 2nd wave bounce is slightly less than 50% that takes 62% of the time of the 1st wave. That gives us an upside target near SPX 848 by 1:30 PM. I'll simply monitor this to see if it happens.

It takes a rally above 855 to give a heads up that something more bullish is happening and above 864 to convince me the bulls have taken the ball back.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 10:37:17 AM

Citigroup (C) $7.43 +0.40% ... #2 most active behind the SPY.

C trades its WKLY Pivot here.

Jane Fox : 12/5/2008 10:33:55 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The White House is "very concerned" about the latest unemployment situation and promises "aggressive" remedies, spokeswoman Dana Perino was quoted by news reports as saying Friday. "We're very concerned that the housing and credit problems are leading to significant job losses in the economy," Perino was quoted as saying by Agence-France Presse. The remarks followed news that nonfarm payrolls contracted by 533,000 in November, the worst monthly job loss in 34 years and far larger than expected.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 10:31:33 AM

10-year Yield ($TNX.X) is up a fraction (tidbit of selling in the benchmark bond) at 2.578%. Below its WKLY S1.

Will set an upside alert at 2.61%, but this is only ray of potential bullishness for equities I see.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 10:29:33 AM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $15.12 -4.36% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 10:28:25 AM

VERY FEW acquisition deals of late due to global credit crunch.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 10:27:07 AM

SNDK $8.53 +5.56% ... may be some jittery bears today. Most acquisition deals seem to be announced on Monday's.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 10:25:50 AM

IUX.X +2.13% ... only equity-based index now showing green.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 10:23:12 AM

On Monday, COMPX session low and the more "hunch-backed" right shoulder like we see in the RUT.X was 1,400.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 10:21:48 AM

On Monday, NASDAQ NH/NL finished 5:147.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 10:20:51 AM

New lows at NASDAQ seem "few" considering yesterday's tally and this morning's price action.

COMPX 1,408 -2.59% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 10:19:48 AM

NYSE NH/NL 18:184

NASDAQ NH/NL 0:77

Keene Little : 12/5/2008 10:18:10 AM

Techs are leading the way lower this morning as NQ has broken this morning's pre-market low. ES is testing its low now.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 10:18:03 AM

Yen CurrencyShares (FXY) $108.70 +0.54% ... Alert! Matches 52-week high to the penny.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 10:16:01 AM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $73.55 -2.58% ... #7 most active.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 10:14:56 AM

Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYX.X) 427.44 -3.51% ... would be testing "right shoulder" on 60-minute intervals.

Keene Little : 12/5/2008 10:12:00 AM

Interesting observation from Barry:

Just wondering about the health of our markets when 5 of the top 10 most active issues on the NYSE are ETFs and 3 of them 2X levered. Looks like few are actually buying individual issues, just using ETFs and letting the ETF computers do the buying and selling. Seems a bit casino like? Very good for traders I would think as in this environment one must assume that the technicians are in control?

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 10:10:50 AM

Disturbing news ... Alex Widmer dies at age 52 ... Reuters Story Link

Jane Fox : 12/5/2008 10:08:52 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The percentage of U.S. mortgage holders who were behind in their payments soared to a record 6.99% of loans outstanding in the third quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Friday, and foreclosures were also at new highs. Just under 3% of U.S. mortgages were somewhere in the foreclosure process, and MBA Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann said mounting job losses were sure to send that figure higher in coming months. Problem loans in California and Florida accounted for much of the increase, the MBA said. More than 19.5% of all subprime loans were seriously delinquent in the quarter, meaning they were more than 30 days past due.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 10:07:23 AM

FXY 108.47 +0.33% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 10:06:33 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $34.62 -2.23% ... probes the overlapping MONTHLY S1/MONTHLY 19.1%.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 10:05:30 AM

BIX.X -1.82%
BKX.X -2.39%
XBD.X +0.89%
IUX.X +2.60%

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 10:04:28 AM

SPX.X 829.83 -1.82% ... probes WKLY S1. 60-minute interval MACD slips below zero.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 10:03:07 AM

VIX.X 65.26 +2.54% ... sticks its head above QRTRLY R2.

Jane Fox : 12/5/2008 10:00:55 AM

Needless to say the bears have control today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 10:00:33 AM

Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 47.66 +0.52% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 10:00:06 AM

SanDisk (SNDK) $8.88 +9.90% ... comes to trend. (see yesterday's MM)

Keene Little : 12/5/2008 9:58:48 AM

As ugly as the decline started from yesterdays high (does not look impulsive), the drop below yesterday afternoon's low now makes the leg down look like a 5-wave move. We could still be just in a consolidation pattern near yesterday's low (sitting right on top of the uptrend line from Monday) but I'm getting a bearish feeling now about this pattern.

If we are completing a 5-wave move down from yesterday then we'll be due a bigger bounce back up to correct it. I'll then be watching for some form of a 3-wave bounce up into the Fib retracement territory as a shorting opportunity.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 9:57:53 AM

US Nat Gas Fund (UNG) $24.23 -3.19% ... "ditto"

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 9:57:11 AM

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $11.02 -6.92% ... notable new 52-weeker at the big board.

Keene Little : 12/5/2008 9:43:22 AM

The uptrend line from Monday's low through Tuesday's low is just under SPX 831 so that's the last trendline support. ES has now fully recovered the post-jobs number drop this morning so the bulls haven't given up yet.

Jane Fox : 12/5/2008 9:38:26 AM

AD line is bearish -1241 and the VIX jumped from yesterday's close at 63.50 to open at 64.73.

Keene Little : 12/5/2008 9:19:10 AM

Equity futures turned negative during the overnight session and then spiked lower on the jobs number but have recovered most of the spike down. This kind of recovery pre-market is always suspect so the tone is clearly bearish for the start of the day. It's looking like we'll get confirmation of the bearish kiss goodbye against the broken uptrend line from November.

Jane Fox : 12/5/2008 9:15:40 AM

Crude hit a low of $42.35 overnight.

I paid $1.81 for a gallon of gas yesterday.

The government is talking about this stimulus package our economy needs but why hasn't anyone mentioned what a HUGE economic stimulus the low price of Crude should have on our economy. I know I sure heard a lot about how the price of Crude affects prices of everything when it was climbing to $147/bl, well the low price of Crude should too. Funny you just don?t hear a lot about it though. Link

Jane Fox : 12/5/2008 9:10:36 AM

Overnight charts have all broken their previous day lows (TF has probably but it is on a 20 minute delay). However, the markets are recovering as I type. Link

Jane Fox : 12/5/2008 9:04:31 AM

Dateline AP - WASHINGTON December 5, 2008, 08:50 am ET ? Skittish employers slashed 533,000 jobs in November, the most in 34 years, catapulting the unemployment rate to 6.7 percent, dramatic proof the country is careening deeper into recession.

The new figures, released by the Labor Department Friday, showed the crucial employment market deteriorating at an alarmingly rapid clip, and handed Americans some more grim news right before the holidays.

As companies throttled back hiring, the unemployment rate bolted from 6.5 percent in October to 6.7 percent last month, a 15-year high.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:47:44 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) 60-minute interval chart as it nears its MONTHLY S1 and MNTHLY 19.1% overlap. Link

Could it POSSIBLY be that equity bulls (across the board) aren't hoping for oil prices to rise again? (wink)

That's get some votes the next election wouldn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 1:36:57 AM

Then the chart of the S&P 500 (SPX.X) I've been updating on various time intervals. This is a daily interval Link

Now, we've been monitoring that very, very, very short-term upward trend (dashed green) and the SPX closed below it today.

What do you think of that trend?

Is it "reasonable?" That is, do you think it "reasonable" that the SPX could hold such a trend of support and by the end of the month be at 1,149?

The point I'm making is that it could be "the trend," but really, I wouldn't get OVERLY excited from the BEARISH side and start hammering bids with shorts. BULLS that are probably 1/4 to 1/2 at MOST position in this environment aren't "sky is falling again" either and getting entirely flat.

While Robert's take was "slight bullish bias" from the put/call measures, I can see why the indicator turned "slight bullish" with the VIX.X at Wednesday's close. If it (VIX.X) can ONLY get a move below the MONTHLY PIVOT, then things get a little more promising from the bull-side of things.

Some call a "higher" VIX.X a "fear guage," but how many bulls are FEARFUL of missing the move higher right now? With those trends on the SPX, probably as many as those that were EAGER to short the USO from $80 to $115.

Now the USO is "plunging" lower and today, when it broke below yesterday's doji, you can see the FEAR of longs. No bearish vertical count ($40 from $0.50 box to match futures) to even think "bottom" and when it goes $37, $36.50, $36.00, $35.50, then $40.00 just gets further away.

Here's the USO on a conventional $1 box and it nears this scale's BEARISH vertical count of $33. Link

Then we've got the Yen, or the FXY Link , which even BOJ officials say is acting like a "flight to safety" instrument this year.

What do YOU think about some of the recent comments that the U.S. enetered a recession in Dec'08 Link

I think that's when the MARKET figured out RECESSION. But I do think the RECESSION time line really starts July, maybe September.

Remember that OIL prices contributed POSITIVELY to Gross Domestic Product, and the torrid rise in OIL prices from Feb'08 to Jul'08 probably did skew the GDP data somewhat.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2008 12:58:44 AM

VIX.X daily interval chart Link

Good chart I think to utilize with The Contrarian article from Robert Wednesday evening.

Darned near looks like the 50-day SMA and M Pivot still the near-term "VIX support" level.

Keene Little : 12/4/2008 11:20:34 PM

Friday's pivot table: Link

Most of the charts are very similar in that the downtrend lines from November 4th held back today's rally so any new rally above Thursday's highs would be potentially bullish. I continue to feel the choppy rise off Monday's low is bearish but I'm not going to argue with price. Short against Thursday's high is the current recommendation and then long or flat above.

The SPX daily chart shows the potential to rally up to 970 (pink) or drop down to 661 (dark red). In between that "small" 300-point range could be a lot of whippy price action. Link

The 60-min chart shows the break of the uptrend line from November 21st (and the bottom of its bear flag pattern from Monday's low). The late-day bounce brought SPX back up for a test of that uptrend line so a continuation lower Friday will leave a bearish kiss goodbye. There is the possibility we'll see price consolidate into Monday before resolving to the upside and that scenario doesn't get negated until SPX drops below 815. Link

OI Technical Staff : 12/4/2008 9:59:59 PM

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