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Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 9:36:19 PM

JAPAN WARNS ABOUT SHARP YEN RISE, ACTION HINTED

Top Japanese finance ministry officials express concern about the sharp rise in the yen, with one official warning that Tokyo is ready to take 'appropriate action' if needed in the currency market.

Yen CurrencyShares (FXY) $109.46 +0.75% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 9:07:06 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 8:54:47 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 8:49:21 PM

NASDAQ Announces the Annual Re-Ranking of the NDX Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 4:43:04 PM

Very light volume at the NASDAQ today. Lowest full day since 11/10/08.

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 4:37:46 PM

XLF went out at $12.13 +1.93% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 4:10:08 PM

DXY's 04:00 tick 83.69

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 4:07:06 PM

Origin Agritech (SEED) $2.23 -3.46% ... pretty good volume for this micro-cap on "right shoulder" of 60-minute interval.

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 4:03:15 PM

Dodd: Congress would vote against release of 2nd TARP Tranche of $350B

Keene Little : 12/12/2008 4:01:08 PM

For a little while there I thought they'd be able to get SPX up to 885 and park it there for the weekend (to keep both sides guessing). I see the potential for another push higher first thing Monday morning to challenge the 885 level but the overall pattern of today's bounce leaves a bearish taste in my mouth. If we get the quick pop up on Monday morning I may be looking to short it.

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 3:31:11 PM

QQQQ $29.57 +1.65% ... forecasting a close of $29.50 ... Q's weekly pivot levels for next week would be (regulars session high/low) ... $27.25, $28.37, Piv= 29.60, $30.72, $31.95.

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 3:22:01 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,699/1,101

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 3:21:49 PM

NYSE a/d 1,472/1,329

Keene Little : 12/12/2008 3:11:34 PM

Updating the SPX 30-min chart shows a new parallel down-channel created off Tuesday's and today's low. The top of the channel was just tagged so a turn back down from here could be bearish for another leg down below this morning's. Otherwise we should get a test of 885 and if that breaks then back to 900 and potentially higher into next week. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 3:08:46 PM

INDU 8,643 +0.94% ... takes a look at MONTHLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 3:08:08 PM

SPX 881.69 +0.92% ... MONTHLY Pivot here.

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 3:06:42 PM

Bears waking up now ... best levels of session ...

Keene Little : 12/12/2008 3:06:11 PM

The shelf of support for SPX during this week's consolidation was just above 885 before breaking down yesterday afternoon. If SPX is able to rally back up to that level you can bet many long traders trapped by this decline will be thanking God for letting them out of their trades as they promise (again) to never be so stupid about not honoring their stops. This is why support turns to resistance and will be a good test for the bulls today.

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 3:04:24 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,698/1,093

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 3:04:09 PM

NYSE a/d 1,472/1,329

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 2:51:34 PM

SMH $17.65 +3.21% ... showing some ability this afternoon to find some leverages buyers at MONTHLY Pivot.

Keene Little : 12/12/2008 2:47:53 PM

Breaks of trend lines are having no meaning today. We're just whipping up and down. Even though there are 11 different types of corrective patterns in EW structures (vs. just one impulsive pattern) I can usually sniff out which two or 3 could be playing out (hence the different scenarios I show on my charts). But today's price action leaves me struggling to figure out which pattern could be playing out, especially since Monday's high.

If we're into some kind of b-wave pullback within a larger 4th wave correction then I know why I'm confused--they're the toughest patterns to figure out. I have no recommendation for a position here and I'm basically flat (I'm hedged) and waiting for clarity, which might not come until next week.

Keene Little : 12/12/2008 2:35:51 PM

After dropping hard this morning bonds have retraced their decline with a strong bounce back up. This could be negative for stocks.

Keene Little : 12/12/2008 2:23:31 PM

We've either got a very bullish setup from today's overlapping climb off the bottom or else it's just a correction to the decline and won't make it much further before turning back down. For now the uptrend line from November 21st continues to hold (SPX just tagged it again on this last pullback) so bullish above and bearish below, or flat until we see where this market might be heading next.

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 2:23:05 PM

MSFT $19.27 -0.97% ... battles with WKLY Pivot.

NDX.X 1,194.89 +1.22% ... battles with MONTHLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 2:17:10 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 2:07:01 PM

02:00 Watch Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 2:01:21 PM

CYC.X 457.34 -0.03% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 1:59:47 PM

INDU 8,508 after back test of WKLY Pivot. (regular session derived)

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 1:57:58 PM

If short ym09h from DPiv, would suggest covering here. 8,480

Keene Little : 12/12/2008 1:39:21 PM

SPX climbed back above its uptrend line from November 21st which now sits near 868. So the 867-868 is an important level for the bulls to hold for now.

Keene Little : 12/12/2008 1:35:04 PM

Pulling back again after tagging the top of today's parallel up-channel (bear flag?). The bottom of the channel is currently near SPX 867. As long as it holds I'd stay bullish for the time being. I think we'll get at least another leg up for the bounce before a larger pullback (or worse).

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 1:32:57 PM

Right near the "flinch" action from 12/10/08

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 1:32:07 PM

VIX.X 55.67 -0.19% ... eases back. Near's DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 1:23:07 PM

DDX.X 53.17 +4.23%

DJUSHB 228.09 +4.25% ... battle for sector winners.

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 1:21:41 PM

YM09h 8,563 ... after session high 8,617 and near kiss of DAILY Pivot (regular session derived) 8,618.

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 1:18:07 PM

Illinois Governor's Chief of Staff resigns

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 1:11:40 PM

EU clears revised version of German Financial Rescue Scheme

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 1:10:25 PM

GM to idle 30% of volume, cut 1Q production by 250,000 units

Keene Little : 12/12/2008 1:04:06 PM

That was a quick trip up to the top of its parallel up-channel. Any higher than SPX 881 before pulling back again and we'll have a more bullish day on our hands.

Jane Fox : 12/12/2008 1:01:17 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- John Harris, the chief of staff for embattled Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich, has resigned, Crain's ChicagoBusiness Journal reported on its Web site Friday, citing people close to the matter. Harris' resignation comes after earlier media reports that Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan was going to appeal to the state's Supreme Court to force Blagojevich out of office.

Jane Fox : 12/12/2008 12:58:27 PM

DOW back to positive +55.51

Jane Fox : 12/12/2008 12:56:46 PM

Illinois Gov. Chief of Staff John Harris resigns

Jane Fox : 12/12/2008 12:55:57 PM

Every morning I wake up I can hardly wait to get to my computer and to see what happened overnight. I have become very engaged in all that is happening, read as much as time allows and am trying to put all the pieces together so it makes sense. I am afraid however, once it all dies down we (I) am going to go into a newswithdrawal.

Keene Little : 12/12/2008 12:50:40 PM

Because today's bounce pattern is so far looking like a corrective move, today's uptrend line becomes important. A break of it, currently near SPX 864.60, would be bearish. It could mean we'll stay in a sideways consolidation but it also could result in a swift decline to new lows. Trade it short term--there's nothing yet to help determine whether or not this bounce will develop some legs.

Keene Little : 12/12/2008 12:44:53 PM

Drawing in a parallel up-channel for today's price action has the top of the channel at SPX 878. Two equal legs up from this morning's low is now at 880.80. While I can't say I'm surprised at today's recovery off a steep drop in the futures before the open, I still find it an amazing recovery. The bulls will jump all over it saying the market is rallying in the face of bad news. If that results in a rally into next week (940-950 target area) it would be ripe for a strong reversal back down (just when the majority have turned bullish).

Keene Little : 12/12/2008 12:40:50 PM

Jane, adding to your 12:30 comment (something I had reported on in my wrap from last Thursday), the last time we had as many 4% moves (38) was in 1933. Pretty amazing volatility, and just one more comparison to what we're experiencing now that hasn't been seen since the 1930s.

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 12:35:23 PM

SPX 60-minute intervals Link ... Bulls really don't want to see SPX much below TREND from here. Two right shoulders isn't uncommon for reverse h/s pattern to remain in play. Three (3) usually not conducive to pattern.

Jane Fox : 12/12/2008 12:30:55 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- General Motors Corp. said Friday it plans to cut production by about 250,000 units in the first-quarter as the automaker struggles to remain liquid. GM did not specify what plants will be affected by the production cut. The Senate voted down a plan to give $14 billion in bridge loans to GM and Chrysler Thursday evening.

Jane Fox : 12/12/2008 12:30:07 PM

I just ran across an interesting piece of information. From 1945 to 2007 the S&P 500 had 40 one day moves of 4% or greater, averaging less than 1 per year. This year alone we have had 28!!! Kinda throws that average all out of whack heh?

Jane Fox : 12/12/2008 12:23:52 PM

GM to cut production by 250K units in Q1

Jane Fox : 12/12/2008 12:22:40 PM

GM is announcing it is closing most of its North American plants for 30% of the first quarter.

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 12:21:15 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 12:15:25 PM

NDX 1,188.55 +0.68% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 12:15:02 PM

SMH $17.37 +1.57% ... after tick at MONTHLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 12:07:35 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Keene Little : 12/12/2008 12:07:14 PM

So far SPX bounced up to the bottom of its broken bull flag pattern this morning and has since pulled back (bearish). It's barely holding onto its uptrend line from November 21st but another run higher above this morning's high would be bullish, at least short term. Critical spot for the market right here. Updated 30-min chart: Link

Jane Fox : 12/12/2008 11:51:59 AM

The Bernie Madoff news is the largest fraud ever confessed to by an individual. Madoff, a former Nasdaq chairman, handled trades in some of the largest securities on various stock exchanges, matching buyers and sellers. Investigators say Madoff's crime originated in a separate and secretive investment-advising business that served between 11 and 25 clients and had a total of about $17.1 billion in assets under management.

Apparently Madoff told at FBI agents that his investment adviser business was a fraud and had been insolvent for years, losing at least $50 billion. He said he was finished that he had absolutely nothing left and it's all just one big lie and it was basically, a giant Ponzi scheme. .

Jane Fox : 12/12/2008 11:47:07 AM

All the bad news out today about the Auto Industry and that a Wall Street powerbroker, Bernie Madoff, has confessed to a massive fraud scheme and the SPX is making a higer low. Amazing, simply amazing. Link

Keene Little : 12/12/2008 11:44:46 AM

The uptrend line for ES has been broken and the bounce is a 3-wave move so far. The mid-morning pullback low at 855 is important for the bulls to hold.

Keene Little : 12/12/2008 11:32:03 AM

I've lost my intraday data on QCharts (tech support is working on it) and in the meantime I'm watching price action on ES on my backup QuoteTracker. If the bulls can get another push higher into noon we could see ES close its gap at 874. Slightly higher at 876.50 it would achieve two equal legs up from this morning's low (regular hours, not all hours, to stick with the cash market). Keep an eye on the uptrend lines from this morning's lows as a guide for whether or not the bulls are going to hold this bounce or not. For ES it's near 864 at the moment.

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 11:18:41 AM

Goldman slashes 2009 commodity price outlook ... Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 11:10:19 AM

SMH $17.30 +1.16% ... session high 7 cents shy.

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 11:09:47 AM

NDX.X alert! 1,194.25 +1.16% ... after test of MONTHLY Pivot from underneath.

Keene Little : 12/12/2008 11:02:07 AM

It will obviously be an important test if the DOW and SPX are able to close this morning's gap down. The techs and small caps continue to encourage the blue chips to follow them higher.

Keene Little : 12/12/2008 10:37:47 AM

Both sides are staring at each other wondering who's going to blink first. Of course that statement would fit equally well this morning about the bulls and the bears as well as the government and GM who has announced plans about getting ready to file for bankruptcy. My vote, which may sound cruel, is to let GM declare bankruptcy and then help them through the process (backing loans, etc.). It will force the fixes that company desperately needs to make, including the union.

Jane Fox : 12/12/2008 10:35:45 AM

I guess the link was too long but it was an ad for a refinance loan up to $200,000 and you do not need to even give them your SSN. Haven't we learned ANYTHING????

Jane Fox : 12/12/2008 10:30:41 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- General Motors has hired lawyers and bankers to consider whether the company should file for bankruptcy protection as it continues to await a Federal bailout package, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday on its Web site. GM management had recently contacted bankruptcy expert Harvey Miller of Weil Gotshal & Manges LP to handle what would be one of the largest filings in U.S. history, the newspaper said.

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 10:29:50 AM

NASDAQ-100 Heat Map Link ... Bread was about 50/50

Jane Fox : 12/12/2008 10:28:21 AM

UAW: Bankruptcies would result in liquidations

UAW: Bankruptcy is not an option

UAW: Only option is to use TARP funds

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 10:27:58 AM

NDX 1,178.15 -0.17% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 10:27:40 AM

Microsoft (MSFT) $18.80 -3.34% ... undercuts WKLY S1/DAILY S2 overlap.

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 10:21:36 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 12/12/2008 10:18:57 AM

UAW: Minority in Senate wanted to derail auto bailout

UAW: All stakeholders have to make sacrifices

UAW: We're on third base, others aren't in ballpark

Jane Fox : 12/12/2008 10:18:05 AM

UAW: Organized labor being held to 'double standard'

UAW: We thought we had reached deal with Tennessee senator

UAW: We were willing to go the 'extra mile'

Keene Little : 12/12/2008 10:11:10 AM

The techs are back in the green and now the RUT has poked its head above water. That's a bullish sign.

Keene Little : 12/12/2008 10:09:40 AM

This morning's drop in SPX found some Fib support around 851-856. The lower Fib level is where it's possible to count the completion of the move down from Monday's high as an a-b-c where wave-c = 162% of wave-a. The 856 level is a 62% retracement of the Friday-Monday rally. This makes it very important for SPX to hold above 850--break that again and the bears are in control.

SPX has clawed its way back above its downtrend line from November 21st and could soon test the bottom of its bull flag pattern just under 872 now. 30-min chart: Link

Jane Fox : 12/12/2008 10:09:29 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Treasury Department said Friday that it would step in and lend funds to the Big 3 auto-makers until Congress has time to consider a long-term rescue package next year. Talks on a rescue package broke down in the Senate late on Thursday night, making action on a bailout impossible until next year. "Because Congress failed to act, we will stand ready to prevent an imminent failure until Congress reconvenes and acts to address the long-term viability of the industry," Treasury spokeswoman Brooklyn McLaughlin said in a statement. Funds for the auto companies are likely to come from the Trouble Asset Relief plan. The decision to use TARP funds is a shift in the previous White House position that the $700 billion dollars should be limited to stabilizing the financial sector.

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 10:07:43 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jane Fox : 12/12/2008 10:03:11 AM

December UofM Sentiment Prelim 59.1 vs. 54.50 concensus of 54.50.

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 10:01:46 AM

HUI.X 261.89 +3.72% ... check that.

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 10:01:09 AM

XAL.X 21.53 +1.84%

DDX.X 51.40 +0.76% ... sector winners

Jane Fox : 12/12/2008 10:00:30 AM

Treasury said auto aid would last until Congress acts

Treasury: Will prevent any 'imminent failure' of auto cos

Treasury says 'stands ready' to help auto makers

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 9:55:24 AM

VIX.X 58.07 +4.21% ... pressed against its DAILY R2.

Keene Little : 12/12/2008 9:50:20 AM

The bull flag pattern that was pointing higher today has obviously been broken this morning. The bottom of the flag is currently near SPX 872. If by some miracle the market rallies back up near the flat line it will be a test of the bottom of the flag and an important test--a failure there would strongly suggest we'll make new lows this month.

SPX is currently just below its uptrend line from November 1st near 861 so by that measure the bulls haven't really lost it yet. If a quick spike down is recovered and SPX can stay above the trend line then it will look like a bear trap. But if a retest of the 861 area results in a drop to new lows then it will look like a bearish kiss goodbye.

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 9:49:13 AM

FBR cutting Bronco Drilling (BRNC) and Diamond Offshore (DO) to "underperform"

Jane Fox : 12/12/2008 9:48:28 AM

The VIX closed yesterday at 55.78 and opened today at 58.64. It is now falling and making new daily lows but the very bearish AD line will weigh it down (or up ?) and the markets will not do much today until we find out the what the White House will do with the auto industry. However, the fact that the market is not totally falling out of bed is a good sign.

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 9:47:03 AM

Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH) $73.10 -5.60% ... sector loser early.

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 9:46:28 AM

Everything else in U.S. Market Watch in the red.

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 9:46:08 AM

HUI.X 253.16 +0.26% ...

GLD $81.01 +0.44% ... ~$810.10 spot.

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 9:43:12 AM

GM $3.32 -19.41% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 9:42:19 AM

GM bonds trading 10-11 cents on the dollar.

Jane Fox : 12/12/2008 9:39:16 AM

AD line opens bearish at -1877

Keene Little : 12/12/2008 9:24:04 AM

This is what I fully expected to hear and why we could see a rally attempt if the Treasury helps out:

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Bush administration will consider its options to save the auto industry, including using the $700 billion funds under the Troubled Asset Relief Program, White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said Friday. "A precipitous collapse of this industry would have a severe impact on our economy, and it would be irresponsible to further weaken and destabilize our economy at this time," she said.

Keene Little : 12/12/2008 9:21:07 AM

We've got a very nasty opening in front of us and obviously it will be best to let the dust settle before jumping into the fray. We could see some really big moves in the first hour. As nasty as it looks for the open, the spike up in futures a few minutes ago is something that could catch fire if some big players want to use this morning's "dip" as a buying opportunity.

But as I discussed in last night's wrap, a break of the uptrend lines from November 1st, along with the patterns I pointed out in the techs and several other sectors, points to new annual lows this month before setting up the bigger bounce into the new year.

Jane Fox : 12/12/2008 9:19:14 AM

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was right when he said the market will not be pleasant sight but that was earlier and it is coming back as I type.

I have been trading for almost 10 years now and one of the market truisms is a market that can rally in the face of bad news is indeed a bullish market. So if we see the bulls pull this rabbit out of the hat it will be a very very bullish sign and another indication the bottom is in. Link

Jane Fox : 12/12/2008 9:07:56 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A $14 billion bailout deal to aid the struggling Big Three U.S. automakers collapsed Thursday night in the Senate, as a dispute over union wages derailed a compromise between Republicans and Democrats who'd worked feverishly to throw Detroit a lifeline.

"There's too much difference between the two sides," said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev. "I dread looking at Wall Street tomorrow. It's not going to be a pleasant sight."

It was unclear what might happen next. The House-passed measure had the support of the Bush administration.

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky said the sticking point was whether the United Autoworkers union was willing to agree to pay cuts to achieve parity with other manufacturers. Japanese and European automakers' plants, primarily in the South and Southwest, primarily use nonunion workers who are paid less than United Autoworkers employees at Ford Motor Co. , General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC, the U.S. Big Three.

Jane Fox : 12/12/2008 8:59:16 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. wholesale prices fell sharply for the second straight month as weak demand pulled down prices for energy supplies and other raw materials.

The producer price index fell 2.2% in November, almost matching the record 2.8% drop in October, the Labor Department reported Friday.

The decline was roughly in line with economists' forecasts.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core PPI rose 0.1%, slightly higher than the flat reading expected. Read full government release.

Many economists believe there is a rising danger of deflation, which is a period of general price drops in an economy and can be as dangerous as inflation to economic growth.

Jane Fox : 12/12/2008 8:57:43 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - With gasoline prices plunging and auto sales on life support, U.S. retail sales dropped 1.8% in November, the fifth straight decline, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Retail sales were down 7.4% compared with a year earlier. The big drop was in line with expectations by economists for a 2.1% decline. Sales fell a revised 2.9% in October and a revised 1.6% in September. But the extent of the decline was exaggerated by an historic drop in retail gasoline prices in November. Excluding the record 14.7% drop in sales at gas stations, retail sales fell 0.2%. Many retail sectors reported their biggest sales increases in years.

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 12:47:40 AM

yg09g off 14.20, or -1.71% at $813.30

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 12:38:24 AM

ym08z ... pivot traders. Thursday's settle was 8,597. Regular session high/low was 8,810/8,511

Jeff Bailey : 12/12/2008 12:28:18 AM

Bernard L. Madoff arrested on securities fraud ... AP Story Link

NASDAQ Level II traders ... Madoff's market maker ID is MADF

If they're on the bid/offer, don't fight them as they may be closing some size.

Jeff Bailey : 12/11/2008 11:37:21 PM

ym09h low has been 8,191

Jeff Bailey : 12/11/2008 11:36:32 PM

ym09h down 345, or 4.02% at 8,225

Jeff Bailey : 12/11/2008 11:35:47 PM

$14 billion auto bailout dies in Senate ... AP Story Link

Keene Little : 12/11/2008 10:08:09 PM

Friday's pivot table: Link

Equity futures nose dived after hours as the story got out that the Senate may not have the votes to bail out the auto companies. Futures have recovered off thie lows but it's anyone's guess how the market will behave in the morning. Diregarding what looks like a negative start for Friday morning, the 120-min charts for SPX and RUT show an expectation for another rally leg into Monday:
SPX 120-min: Link
RUT 120-min: Link

The bullish setups require a rally out of the gate although the market could spike down at the open and do an immediate reversal, something we've seen happen often on a Thursday or Friday prior to opex week so be careful at the open.

OI Technical Staff : 12/11/2008 9:59:59 PM

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