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Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 7:39:30 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 7:36:37 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 7:36:32 PM

Nymex Crude settles Jan'09 Termination Link

Note Jan'09 lower on Friday, Feb-June Higher. (see 02:25:30)

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 4:46:58 PM

Pivot traders ... How did it close relative to this week's pivot. Where's it at relative to next week's pivot? That's the near-term bias.

Remember, MONTHLY very influencial, so IF ABOVE THE MONTHLY, then weight a little more bullish. IF ABOVE BOTH MONTHLY/WEEKLY, then more bullish.

Use your internals (bullish %, a/d, NH/NL) for how the MARKET is doing inside.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 4:31:50 PM

VZ $33.19 -0.33% ... we did follow that one with the Max Pain Table ... stayed $30.00.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 4:28:43 PM

PNC $44.39 -0.15% ... At last night's close, Dec'08 Max Pain $52.50 (+/- $2.50 inc.)

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 4:21:59 PM

$30 was all put = $795,000

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 4:21:13 PM

Dover Corp. (DOV) $31.76 +2.94% ... I hadn't been tracking. However, at last night's close, Dec'08 Max Pain was tabulated at $35.00 (+/- $5 increments).

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 4:15:14 PM


Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 4:14:47 PM

Nearly 10M trade in SPY since 04:00 tick ... 4.5 minutes to go!

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 4:12:58 PM

VIX.X 45.29 ... reclaimed the "Obama Low" as we'll cal it from 11/04/08 after undercut of QRTRLY 61.8%.

Keene Little : 12/19/2008 4:09:39 PM

Heading into next week is a toss-up. I can see the possibility for a Santa Claus rally, even if only for a day or two. But a break down further on Monday could spark some more serious selling. In between is the sideways scenario I showed for NDX. The SPX 120-min chart shows the same sideways b-wave playing out into the end of the month (pink) before rallying in January: Link

Any break below 851 would like see a move down to at least 810 (dashed line) whereas a rally on Monday could see a move up to 930 (downtrend line from October 14th) with additional upside targets of 945 (Fib projection) and 965 (top of the rising wedge pattern.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 4:08:47 PM

DXY's 04:00 tick 81.12

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 4:06:04 PM

Answer: You panic, you close out with BIG LOSS.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 4:04:41 PM

Now ... USO specific ... YOU now KNOW, or have become a little more focused on how oil can trade into and OUT of a termination.

If +/- $5 in an option is a "big deal" ... what's your TRADE SIZE ... IF THINGS GO AGAINST YOU near-term?

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 3:57:13 PM

USO 30-minute inervals with an assuming WKLY Pivot retracement for next week. Bias at WKLY Pivot and MS1 noted. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 3:42:07 PM

One note again to think about is refiners cut back on their capacity ... that was in my mind a near-term "fundamental" killer on Wednesday. So, I kind'a have to look at the WKLY S2/MONTHLY S2 overlap.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 3:40:00 PM

USO ... assuming a $30.00 close ... next week's Pivot Levels would be (regular session derived) ... $26.67, $29.84, Piv= 35.11, $38.28, 43.55

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 3:31:22 PM

I tend to side with those that are thinking ... "this loan to GM and Chrysler won't be the last."

See, I still think there are a lot of would-be car buyers not too sure if they should be buying a GM or Chrysler-made vehicle.

These two may become one in the not to distant future.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 3:28:43 PM

Strugle a bit with today's news out of Washington/Detroit.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 3:27:46 PM

I'm going to sell a portion EUO here at offer of $21.54 ... I'm going to be out on Monday, bigger position, take it down a notch.

Keene Little : 12/19/2008 3:21:47 PM

So much for support holding, including the uptrend line from November 21st at 887. One other uptrend line is from the December 5th low near 880. Two equal legs down from this morning's high is at 876.80.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 3:20:23 PM

03:15 Market Watch Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 3:18:00 PM

USO $32.88 +0.45% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 3:17:26 PM

PBR $23.434 +1.60% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 3:17:06 PM

Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) ... Investments in subsalt remain viable. No decision from board on strategic plan.

Keene Little : 12/19/2008 3:08:16 PM

I don't get the sense from today's pattern that it's ready to break down from here. I think today's low will hold and then we'll get another leg up but then the question is whether or not we'll get another leg down on Monday as part of a sideways triangle pattern that I showed for NDX next week. That pattern is starting to look more and more likely.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 2:59:16 PM

ORCL might edge back to $17.50-ish to the close.

Keene Little : 12/19/2008 2:58:06 PM

Oops, this isn't exactly a strong leg up to 898.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 2:57:44 PM

At $18.00 a bit of a turn ... Call= $9.68M and Put= $6.97M.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 2:56:54 PM

Oracle (ORCL) $17.85 +7.40% ... It's Dec'08 Max Pain at last night's close was $17.00.

That strike was Put= $11.5M and Call= $3.4M ... A little "pain" for the put side.

Keene Little : 12/19/2008 2:54:50 PM

SPX had a 3-wave bounce off the mid-day low followed by a 3-wave pullback and now starting back up in what should be a little sharper rally. Two equal legs up from the mid-day low is at 898.43 and a 62% retracement of the decline from this morning's high is at 898.05. That makes the 898 level potential resistance if reached. The pattern would be set up at that point for a decline into Monday (downside target near 879). In the meantime I don't see any other good setups.

Keene Little : 12/19/2008 2:38:48 PM

I concur with Jeff--nothing here. Looks more like typical Friday opex pinning.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 2:34:47 PM

Other than looking for some type of "scalp" trade at this point, I'm not seeing anything overly compelling long/short

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 2:33:56 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 2:31:32 PM

Those listening to CNBC will know what I'm talking about ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 2:30:37 PM

Might need to brush up on our Spanish....

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 2:25:30 PM

I'd start getting flat any day trade shorts in oil here.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 2:03:41 PM

01:55 Market Watch at this Link

Keene Little : 12/19/2008 1:59:53 PM

Looking at the last leg down in oil, from the high on December 15th, the wave count calls for one more new low to finish a 5-wave move, as shown on this 120-min chart: Link . The downside projection, based on equality between the 1st and 5th waves, is at 31.15. If it plays out this way I'll be watching for, and calling out, a long play on oil (will use USO).

Keene Little : 12/19/2008 1:51:04 PM

Oil came close this morning to the downside target near $32 (low of $33.44) and has bounced. But so far the little bounce looks like a correction. I think oil is very close to a good tradable bottom but it looks like at least one more new low is required. Updated daily chart: Link

Keene Little : 12/19/2008 1:41:39 PM

Two equal legs up for the the bounce off the mid-day low is at SPX 895.39 and the high so far is 893.31. A turn back down here could bring us new daily lows. If it can continue the bounce we'll either finish the day sideways or push to new highs.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 1:30:35 PM

You know, this guy on CNBC comments regarding who manages your money really rings home with me.

A very close friend of mine had about $360K "disappear" from a charitable trust.

His "money manager" of that trust was his wife's, sister's, husband. Brother-in-law I guess.

Didn't look at his statements simply because he TRUSTED the guy so much.

Of course, his wife's sister devorced the guy, but you just can't trust anyone these days I guess.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 1:24:50 PM

That a fib range. From 10/27/08 low to the 11/10/08 pop high. 80.9% retrace is the alert.

Jane Fox : 12/19/2008 1:24:42 PM

The S&P Futures 5 minute chart has made a higher low confirmed by a higher high which should not be surprising since the VIX was telling us this was a possibility.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 1:23:09 PM

Getting a downside alert here on AIG $1.63

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 1:22:36 PM

Beetle's Balanced has GLD -0.06% since 12/31/07 with GLD $82.40 here ... ~$824.00 spot

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 1:20:24 PM

Dorsey's BPALL rose 0.61% to 44.69%. Chart still in X at 44.00% (always a 2.00% box size for the bull %)

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 1:18:23 PM

Perhaps seeing some of the more positive BREADTH showing up in price within the WEEKLY.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 1:17:37 PM

RUT is "very broad" in number.

SPX is "broad" in number.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 1:16:34 PM

Your strength should be noted.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 1:16:20 PM

RUT.X's WKLY R1 should be highlighted too. Sorry small-cappers!

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 1:09:30 PM

Old downward trend right maybe got some action yesterday, M Pivot there though too.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 1:08:38 PM

NDX like a pinball between Q S2 and MONTHLY Pivot yesterday and today.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 1:07:53 PM

Yesterday, I was looking for a little more action than we've seen thus far. Plenty of time for that to change ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 1:06:10 PM

Ooops! ... Type BIX.X current wrong ... It's at the WKLY pivot 136.74 +0.15% ... current.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 1:02:59 PM

Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly Pivot Matrix (with current trade typed in for Points from pivots) at this Link

Keene Little : 12/19/2008 12:53:01 PM

This NDX daily chart is a change to the one I included in last night's newsletter which reflects what I just showed on the 120-min chart: Link . If we do see price consolidate sideways through next week the timing of the high for the next rally leg, up to the 1400 area, would be by mid month before turning back down. This scenario (pink) would say we'll get a new low in February instead of waiting for the larger sideways consolidation pattern (dark red)into February before starting down again.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 12:52:32 PM

I still think SEC needs to "rethink" up-tick rule. Mr. Cox has been admitting some errors of late.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 12:51:24 PM

Paulson: Congress nees to release second $350B ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 12:49:20 PM

USO 60-minute interval Link

Again ... its the Jan'09 futures that terminate today. Just taking that and transfering to USO.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 12:41:02 PM

From a RISK management point of view, USO call option mentioning yesterday (as long as not overleveraged) a good idea. Maybe a day or two earlier, but good risk management.

PREMIUMS have come WAY down from just a couple of weeks ago too!

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 12:38:32 PM

Kind'a watch USO ... check against 11/20 and 11/21.

Keene Little : 12/19/2008 12:34:14 PM

Correction to the NDX 120-min chart in my previous post (corrected the label for the previous high near 1245): Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 12:34:06 PM

This action could have some "jobs data" followers wondering if we haven't seen an inflection low in those data.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 12:33:03 PM

HMO's +2.65% at 920.36

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 12:31:39 PM

UNH $26.28 +5.49% ... further bid.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 12:25:19 PM

Can perhaps see why pivot traders like to use the Fib range. Regular session derived.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 12:23:41 PM

YM 5-minute interval chart Link

Keene Little : 12/19/2008 12:23:22 PM

NDX 1212 is holding, for now, so there's still a chance the bulls could pulls this one out of the fire and get another rally leg started. The NDX 120-min chart shows, in dark red, the wave count calling for a rally next week up to 1280 and possibly as high as 1333: Link

But if prices settle back down there is a pattern that's starting to look like a good possibility, especially considering the number of 3-wave moves up and down since the December 9th high. The pink wave count shows we could see price consolidate sideways in a triangle b-wave right into the end of the month and then get a strong rally leg in January (1400 upside target).

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 12:20:13 PM

GM $4.05 +10.65% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 12:19:49 PM

Fitch downgrading GM debt ... thinks "default eminent."

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 12:17:06 PM

QQQQ $29.88 +0.87% ... right at (+/- $1)

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 12:16:21 PM

SMH $17.50 +1.09% ... still +9.38% above $16 (+/- $1).

Jane Fox : 12/19/2008 12:15:12 PM

Although the S&P futures are making new daily lows the VIX is not making new daily highs so this selloff should come to an end shortly.

I see all markets back into their overnight ranges except the Russell 2000 which is still above. Opps no the DOW is below its overnight range.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 12:15:08 PM

GLD $82.41 ... ~$824.10 spot

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 12:14:36 PM

More of a "gravitational" pull LOWER to "Max Pains" it looks.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 12:12:50 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Keene Little : 12/19/2008 12:10:45 PM

The overnight low for ES was 882.25 so watch that level for a possible retest for support (about 2 points lower from here).

Jane Fox : 12/19/2008 12:09:46 PM

Internals are turning much more bearish now. Link

Jane Fox : 12/19/2008 12:07:20 PM

The first 1/2 of the TARP money has been allocated and Paulson is now talking about the 2nd 1/2 but will work with Congress and the Obama administration before any decisions are made.

Jane Fox : 12/19/2008 12:04:47 PM

Crude Feb contract has a volume of 93K and the Jan Contract has a volume of 10K so the spread between these two is widening. We have to go through this gyration every month with Crude.

Keene Little : 12/19/2008 12:04:42 PM

NDX has dropped into its gap so now the test for the bulls is to hold at or above 1212 which is 50% of the gap. Much below that increases the likelihood of gap closure and that would raise the probability that at best we're going to see a sideways consolidation into next week.

Jane Fox : 12/19/2008 12:03:12 PM

News sources were saying Crude hit a low of 33.44 overnight so they were using the January contract but now they are saying Crude is trading over $42 using the February contract. This gives you the impression Crude has rallied $9.00. No so dear folks. The January contract is still at 34.69 and the February contract's overnight low was 40.90.

Jane Fox : 12/19/2008 11:59:56 AM

And the beat goes on!

Jane Fox : 12/19/2008 11:59:33 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Belgian Prime Minister Yves Leterme has proposed that his government resign after a court found it had sought to influence a court case over the bailout of troubled bank Fortis , according to media reports Friday. The proposal comes after Leterme's Justice Minister Jo Vandeurzen resigned over allegations the government had tried to influence a court case dealing with the bailout and sale of Fortis to BNP Paribas. BNP Paribas said Thursday it could not go ahead with its acquisition of Fortis given the court ruling.

Keene Little : 12/19/2008 11:50:46 AM

NDX gapped up today and the bottom of the gap is near 1219. I'd like to see that hold on this pullback since a drop back inside the gap runs the risk of gap closure and that would be a very deep pullback against the rally off yesterday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 11:45:19 AM

YM ... 8,644

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 11:37:38 AM

YM really shouldn't come back much more than 8,647.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 11:36:39 AM

YM 8,680 ... can be long here

Keene Little : 12/19/2008 11:35:17 AM

The pullback from this morning's high is a little more than I'd like to see but if it holds here we can still get another leg up and create an impulsive 5-wave move up from yesterday. If it drops lower then we'll continue to be stuck in some kind of corrective wave pattern and ultimate direction out of it next week will be a question mark.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 11:30:58 AM

YM 8,668 ... now monitor for kiss-back of WKLY. IF a drive back above Daily Piv (regular session derived) THEN play it long. ELSE do nothing.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 11:27:02 AM

INDU 8,717

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 11:26:31 AM

YM 8,703 ... bulls from 8,657 should be protecting some early gains.

Jane Fox : 12/19/2008 11:19:02 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson plans to work with Congress and the Obama administration to determine the most effective timeline for seeking the release of the second half of the $700 billion bank bailout fund, according to a Treasury official on Friday. The first half of the bailout funds have been allocated, after the White House announced Monday it was providing loans to Chrysler and General Motors Corp. that would "effectively" use up the $350 billion in bailout funds. General Motors will receive $9.4 billion of the remaining bailout funds and Chrysler, which is owned by buyout shop Cerberus Capital Management, will receive a $4 billion injection. An additional $4 billion for General Motors would require congressional approval as part of the additional $350 billion in funds. To obtain the second $350 billion in capital, Treasury needs to submit a report to Congress on how it plans to use the funds and any additionl steps it will take to assist homeowners facing foreclosure. A treasury official said that officials at the department are considering "housing and foreclosure issues" as they put together their report for Congress. Democrats in Congress have said that they will not support releasing the additional $350 billion unless there is assistance to homeowners facing foreclosure.

Jane Fox : 12/19/2008 11:10:09 AM

Here are your overnight charts. Obviously the Russell 2000 is the stronger index. Link

Keene Little : 12/19/2008 10:54:22 AM

So far the bounce off yesterday's low looks like a sharp 3-wave move and as such could still be nothing more than just a correction to a larger pullback in progress. If price consolidates sideways for a bit and then heads higher again we'll get an impulsive move up from yesterday and that would let us know we've got a good start to the Santa Claus rally. Jury's still out debating that one but so far it's looking good for St. Nick.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 10:47:38 AM

OK ... YM traders currently long, at the WKLY Pivot, might want to raise your stops to 8,705.

8,754 here ...

Jane Fox : 12/19/2008 10:33:35 AM

Internals are very strong today. Link

Jane Fox : 12/19/2008 10:31:07 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Egan-Jones Rating Co. on Friday reaffirmed its lowly D rating on General Motors Corp.'s credit, even after the White House said it would provide $13.4 billion in federal aid, with another $4 billion likely in February. The credit ratings agency said the money will "cushion the blow" but told its clients to watch for another bailout by President-elect Obama and an eventual bankruptcy filing. GM's stock rose 17% to $4.28 in early trades on word of the cash infusion.

Keene Little : 12/19/2008 10:26:20 AM

At this point the sharp spike up in prices off yesterday afternoon's low looks like a confirmed bullish reversal. Once we get a stronger pullback we'll be able to raise stops on long plays. The first upside target (if the rally continues into next week) is SPX 933, with higher potential to 945-952.

Jane Fox : 12/19/2008 10:17:22 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Standard & Poor's Equity Research on Friday reiterated its sell rating on shares of General Motors Corp. , saying that the $17.4 billion in federal aid announced earlier in the day provides only a temporary bridge. "We expect GM to quickly run through the funds and to need additional multi-billion dollar funding just to meet '09 needs during what looks like an auto depression," analyst Efraim Levy said. Still, GM shares rallied on word of the bailout, up 15% to $4.21.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 10:16:05 AM

I have to step away for about 2 hours.

Keene Little : 12/19/2008 10:07:05 AM

Speaking of my pivot table it's a good time to remind everyone that my numbers use all-hours trading whereas Jeff likes to use regular-hours trading. I've heard arguments on both sides about why you should use one versus the other. Just know that our numbers can be slightly different.

I like to use cash indices for most of my chart analysis (thinking most participants are active during the trading day vs. overnight and EW analysis is dependent on "normal" crowd behavior) and therefore I prefer to use normal hours. But there's a good argument that futures clearly involve international trading, especially in currencies and bonds, and therefore all-hours numbers may be more important when viewing futures and their pivot numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 10:01:06 AM

FXE $139.05 -2.51% ... euro edging back here.

If long the EUO $21.38 +4.59% ... can beging to bring your stops higher.

Jane Fox : 12/19/2008 10:00:11 AM

Chrysler CEO: To have 500,000 electric cars on road by 2013

Chrysler's CEO Nardelli: Cerberus to forgo any loan benefit

Chrysler's CEO Nardelli: To seek lender concessions

Chrysler's CEO Nardelli: To seek dealer cooperation

Jane Fox : 12/19/2008 9:58:19 AM

Crude hit lows overnight not seen since November 2002. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 9:57:59 AM

I'd play the YM long, stop under WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 9:57:15 AM

VXO.X 46.26 ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 9:56:45 AM

SPX 893.97

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 9:56:36 AM

YM 8,661 ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 9:56:10 AM

VIX.X 44.00 -7.05% .... Alert!

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 9:53:48 AM

It looks like the U.S. government and taxpayers are going to offer GM and Chrysler $17.4B worth of loans over the next couple of months, but the demand for concessions are similar to those a week ago. GM slated to get $9.4 billion and Chrysler to get $4 billion.

Jane Fox : 12/19/2008 9:53:01 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Ford Motor Co. on Friday joined General Motors and Chrysler in thanking the Bush administration for setting plans for emergency funding. "Ford is asking for access to a line of credit of up to $9 billion in bridge financing, but reiterated that it hopes to complete its transformation without accessing a government loan," the companay said. Ford reiterated that it is continuing aggressive actions to reduce costs and improve Automotive gross cash to fund its product-led transformation plan, despite the continued weakness in the global automotive market and economic environment.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 9:47:19 AM

No worries ...

Keene Little : 12/19/2008 9:46:40 AM

Jeff's comments last night about my pivot table reminded me to change the labels for the contracts on the table--I'm still referring to the December contracts but obviously they're the March contracts now (I use continuous contracts on my charts). So thanks for the reminder Jeff.

Jane Fox : 12/19/2008 9:40:34 AM

AD line is a bullish +1135

Keene Little : 12/19/2008 9:32:42 AM

Equity futures sank lower for most of the overnight session but then spurted higher from 7:00 AM into positive territory just before 9:00 AM and have since dropped back into the red. That morning squeeze higher looks suspicious so we'll see how the market goes in the first 30 minutes. The bulls need to hold yesterday's lows.

Jane Fox : 12/19/2008 9:21:11 AM

I'm getting a few details about the loan now.

Auto industry will require meaningful concessions

Terms of loans require plan for viability

Loans to give carmakers 3 months for restructure plans

Jane Fox : 12/19/2008 9:18:02 AM

The news I came across yesterday about Bush considering an organized Auto Bailout came from a speech Paulson made at a business forum in New York. "If the right outcome is reorganization or bankruptcy, then isn't it better to get there through an orderly process?" he asked. The article did say the Bush administration was reviewing several approaches to the situation and it looks like the bankruptcy route was one of them. That news put a screeching halt to bulls, needless to say.

Now we have the White House announcing they are coming to the rescue the markets have reacted in kind. Link

Jane Fox : 12/19/2008 9:10:26 AM

Crude's January contract (volume 3K) hit a low of 33.44 overnight and that seems to be the contract most news sources are quoting. The Feb contract (volume 21K) hit a low of 40.90. The 33.44 low is the one we can relate to because we have been with the Jan contract for a month now.

Jane Fox : 12/19/2008 9:02:30 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday charged seven people and two companies with insider trading that was triggered by a Lehman Brothers Holdings executive's wife. Matthew Devlin, a former registered representative at Lehman Brothers, tipped his clients and friends with confidential information about 13 impending corporate transactions, alleges the SEC. His wife was a partner in the New York City office of an international public relations firm working on the deals, said the SEC. The SEC said that the illicit trades took place from at least March 2004 through July 2008, and yielded more than $4.8 million in profits. Also charged were Jamil Bouchareb, Devlin's friend and client at Lehman, and a Miami Beach, Fla.-based trader; Bouchareb's business partner Daniel Corbin; Frederick Bowers, a registered representative at Lehman and one of Devlin's work partners; Eric Holzer, Devlin's friend and a tax associate in the New York City office of an international law firm; and Jeffrey Glover, another of Devlin's Lehman clients and an investment adviser. The SEC also charged two of Corbin's companies, Augustus Management and Corbin Investment Holdings.

Jane Fox : 12/19/2008 9:01:07 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The White House is prepared to extend $13.4 billion in loans to troubled Detroit auto makers, with an additional $4 billion likely available in February, The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday. The deal could help General Motors and closely held Chrysler LLC avoid bankruptcy and is contingent on the companies showing they are financially viable by March, the newspaper reported. "I think under normal circumstances, no question the bankruptcy court is the best way to sort through credit and debt and restructuring," President Bush reportedly said. "These aren't normal circumstances, that's the problem."

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 1:53:45 AM

BOJ also saying it will buy its own government bonds @ Y1.4 Tln monthly.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 1:50:14 AM

$NIKK Link ... up 54 at 8,667. High/Low has been 7,743.22 (close, but not 8,750) / 8,571 . No change on chart at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 1:47:18 AM

Asian Markets mostly higher Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 1:46:27 AM

BOJ cuts rates to 0.1% from 0.3%

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 1:25:50 AM

Looks like some March'09 levels though. At least YM's low looks correct for Thursday's trade.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 1:20:49 AM

Not sure Keene is aware Dec 08Z futures termination

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 1:12:59 AM

YM 60-minute interval (regular session only) Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 12:58:18 AM

YM traders ... I'd suggest taking a trend from the 11/20/08 morning low and attach to 12/05/08 low. Note extension of that trend to offer some technical support on 12/12/08 low and this afternoon's "would be good short cover" low (see MM 03:28:27) and WEEKLY 38.2% (8,480)

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 12:52:04 AM

Please note that regular session derived WKLY Pivot for YM is 8,651

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 12:49:30 AM

YM 8,621 ... off 57. Has traded 8,670 extended but well before 10:56:36.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 12:44:32 AM

SPY Jan'09 Max Pain currently tabulated at $90.

Put= $137.04M ; Call= $167.19M

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 12:42:12 AM

SPY Daily Pivot Levels: $86.29, $87.79, Piv= 89.73 $91.23, $93.17.

SPY $89 strike ... Put= $4.2 billion ; Call= $408.6 million.

$90 strike ... Put= $4.04 Billion ; Call = $469.6 million.

Jeff Bailey : 12/19/2008 12:34:26 AM

Max Pain Dec. ... changes ... SPY $100 , XLF $17

DIA, QQQQ, IWM, SMH, USO and GLD unchanged.

Keene Little : 12/18/2008 10:56:36 PM

Friday's pivot table: Link

SPX barely held onto its uptrend line from November 21st (at 880) so the bulls need to get up and go immediately Friday otherwise it will look like it's breaking down. 120-min chart: Link . The DOW also broke its uptrend line (8670) but was unable to recover it into the close. If it bounces back up to it and fails Friday morning, short it.

As shown on the daily chart, a break below SPX 850 would confirm we may have seen the high for the bounce off the November 21st low. Whether it leads to a drop back down to the bottom of the trading range (near 800) or just more chop can't be known yet but a break down would have me abandoning the long side for now. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2008 10:10:50 PM

Beetle's Balanced Benchmark (from 12/31/07) at this Link

Note: Profit/Loss and P/L % and Value does not account for any payment of dividends or reinvestment of dividends of each asset class.

Longest-dated maturities hold "top spot" among the bond asset class, but corporates had the big day today despite some of the news out of the credit markets.

There's enough days left in the year for big cap tech to get itself out of last place in the equity side of things, but the blue chips of the Dow hold relative strength at tonight's close.

Commodity prices have tumbeled in the second-half of the year, but gold continues to shine of late and now +1.71%, while its alternative asset and the Dollar +2.73% with today's jump against a weigthed basket of foreign currencies.

OI Technical Staff : 12/18/2008 9:59:59 PM

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