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Jeff Bailey : 12/24/2008 4:12:21 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/24/2008 3:10:53 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/24/2008 1:54:28 PM

Feb Crude getting crushed !

Jeff Bailey : 12/24/2008 1:06:18 PM

DXY's 01:00 tick 81.19

Jane Fox : 12/24/2008 1:02:51 PM

Yes we are into the final few minutes and I also want to wish you all a Merry Christmas. I will see on Boxing Day (December 26th).

Keene Little : 12/24/2008 12:59:57 PM

Nice little push into the close today. There's Me and Mini Me and there's the Santa rally and there's the mini-Santa rally. Guess which one we got this year. Whether there will be any follow through to today's rally is a coin toss.

I wish everyone a very Merry Christmas, Happy Hanakuh and all the other holiday cheers for this season. I hope everyone enjoys family and friends and takes a nice long weekend. If you can't rip yourself away from the market I'll be here with you on Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 12/24/2008 12:48:14 PM

VIX.X daily intervals Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/24/2008 12:40:58 PM

VIX.X 44.36 -1.46% ... either side of the "Obama low" (11/04/08)

Jane Fox : 12/24/2008 12:38:16 PM

This is just like the lazy hazy crazy days of summer. The best trade today without a doubt is the one you didn?t take. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/24/2008 12:13:31 PM

EIA: Nat. Gas Storage Table Link ... Draw of 147 Bcf

Jeff Bailey : 12/24/2008 12:12:32 PM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/24/2008 12:10:47 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Keene Little : 12/24/2008 12:09:10 PM

So far that broken downtrend line for SPX held on the retest so that's bullish. But it's really just all noise at this point. It's a throw-away day and really a throw-away week. The bounce off yesterday's low continues to look like a correction so it's hard to feel bullish about it. And Friday is not likely to be much better from a volume standpoint.

Keene Little : 12/24/2008 11:36:00 AM

The broken downtrend line from Friday is now at 865.80 (and dropping obviously) so a retest of that line followed by another rally leg would be bullish.

Keene Little : 12/24/2008 11:34:36 AM

Two equal legs up from yesterday's low is at 868.78 and the high for the bounce was at 868.71. Close enough. That's the level the bulls need to get this above to turn the pattern at least short term bullish.

Keene Little : 12/24/2008 11:26:23 AM

Just noticed an error on my SPX 30-min chart--I have Monday's low identified as 895 but that's obviously wrong. It should say 857. If that level breaks we could see a move down to the 830-840 area at a minimum.

Jeff Bailey : 12/24/2008 11:23:07 AM

The only institutional computer support level I've been able to find.

Jeff Bailey : 12/24/2008 11:21:53 AM

Not a BIG bounce by any means, but RUT.X's MONTHLY Pivot and upward trend held buyers at 465-ish.

Keene Little : 12/24/2008 11:16:09 AM

The SPX 30-min chart shows the downtrend line from Friday, which is being tested now, and then another higher one from Wednesday (at about 878). If the bulls can break the first downtrend line and then get above the projection at 868.78 (for two equal legs up from yesterday afternoon) and then break the higher downtrend line we could see SPX head up to the projection at 883.45 (two equal legs up from Monday's low) or even higher at 898 (162%). At this point that looks like a lot of work for the bulls. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/24/2008 11:11:26 AM

At 10:35 AM ET the Energy Information Agency (EIA) released its weekly crude oil and products inventory data.

Crude oil stockpiles fell by 3.1 million barrels to 318.18 million barrels compared to economists forecast for a 400,000 barrel build. Total gasoline stockpiles rose for a third-straight week with a hefty 3.3 million barrel build. Conventional gasoline stockpiles rose by 1.85 million barrels.

Total distillates also saw a build of 1.8 million barrels with ULS diesel up 2.1 million barrels, while kerosene-type jet fuel stockpiles saw a draw of 569,000 barrels. Heating oil stockpiles fell by 687,000 barrels to 41.16 million barrels and are relatively unchanged versus a year ago.

On the demand side of things, refiners lowered their crude oil inputs by 41,000 barrels/day to 14.511 million barrels/day, which is roughly 4.65% below year-ago runs of 15.218 million barrels/day. Refiners utilized 84.68% of operable capacity, which was up slightly from last week's 84.12%. My tabulated number of days of crude oil supply edged down to 21.7 days from last week's 21.8 days of crude oil supply.

Keene Little : 12/24/2008 10:39:27 AM

We've got a messy pattern but if the bounce makes it a little higher I see potential resistance for SPX at its downtrend line from Friday near 867.50 and then two equal legs up from yesterday afternoon is at 868.78.

Jeff Bailey : 12/24/2008 10:38:50 AM

Reminder: ... Jan'09 Nat. Gas futures terminate Monday (12/29/08)

Jeff Bailey : 12/24/2008 10:38:09 AM

UNG $23.08 -3.79% ...

Jane Fox : 12/24/2008 10:36:18 AM

Trying to read the Tea leaves this morning has not been easy. AD line and ratio are both climbing, which is bullish but on the other hand VIX is only in its midrange, which is neutral. The TRIN, although it is climbing, is still under 1.00.

The Tea leaves are given me mixed signals today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/24/2008 10:36:16 AM

Reminder: Weekly Nat. Gas stockpiles due out at 12:00 PM ET. Economists looking for a draw of 139 Bcf

Jeff Bailey : 12/24/2008 10:35:23 AM

Economists looking for a 400K barrel build in US Crude Oil stockpile.

Jeff Bailey : 12/24/2008 10:34:29 AM

USO $28.82 -3.93% ...

UGA $16.78 -2.83% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/24/2008 10:16:06 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 12/24/2008 10:13:36 AM

I am reading an article on some of the inventive mortgages that helped to bring our financial system to its knees. Interesting reading.

1. Mortgages worth 125% the valve of the house. 95% of the mortgage used the house as collateral but 30% was unsecured. This of course was OK when house prices were climbing but just like a game of musical chairs, when the music stopped (house prices quit climbing) it was not such a good deal.

2. Lenders would give mortgages 8 to 10 times your salary. That means if you made $100,000/yr you could get a mortgage from $800,000 to $1M. Although this would not have gotten you much of a house in Southern California.

3. You think all these nasty mortgages were created in the US - think again. In Hungry they offered mortgages based on the Euro or the Swiss Franc because they were cheaper in those foreign currencies. This was bad news when the Euro soared against the Hungarian forint.

4. if you have bad credit you pay for it with higher rates right? No problem let's get you into a variable rate that is tied to the 3 month LIBOR rate. Well, we all know what the LIBOR rate has done recently. Oh and by the way those variable rates mortgages have clauses that revert them to fixed after a certain number of year, a rate many cannot afford even though fixed rates are low.

5. How about you get a new Rover 200 if you take out a mortgage. The mortgage turned out to be a real bad deal with high rates and the vehicle? Well most are hardly even running now because it was a really really bad vehicle.

Keene Little : 12/24/2008 10:07:19 AM

An uptrend line from the December 12th low through Monday's low (which could be the bottom of a potential triangle that I've been showing on the SPX 60-min chart) is near 858.40 at the moment, about 4 points lower.

Jeff Bailey : 12/24/2008 9:50:10 AM

USO $29.04 -3.20% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/24/2008 9:49:48 AM

FXE $140.30 +0.43% ... inches above its WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 12/24/2008 9:47:17 AM

Reminder: ... NYSE and NYSE Arca will close at 01:00 PM ET in advance of the Christmas holiday.

Keene Little : 12/24/2008 9:42:42 AM

NQ is giving up its pre-market jam higher so that's not bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 12/24/2008 9:40:47 AM

PowerShares DB Crude Oil (DXO) $1.96 -8.83% ... #1 most active early.

Jane Fox : 12/24/2008 9:34:53 AM

AD line opens up at +74. Now tells you a lot, "gunna but a lonnnnggg day folks."

Keene Little : 12/24/2008 9:28:56 AM

Nice rally in equity futures since 8:00 (relative to the overnight trading session) with ES up 6 points off its low. It looks like one of those pre-market jam jobs so it's difficult to trust what it means for the cash market. Light volume means it's easy to push around. The bond market is flat.

Jane Fox : 12/24/2008 9:27:59 AM

We have been talking to our mortgage broker about refinancing our 15 year mortgage but 15 year rates are almost equal to the 30 year so it would not be to our advantage to refinance. :(

Jane Fox : 12/24/2008 9:24:30 AM

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- With mortgage rates approaching record lows, the volume of applications filed for mortgages jumped a seasonally adjusted 48% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly survey.

Applications for the week ended Dec. 19 ran 124.6% ahead of the mortgage activity seen during the same week last year, the Washington-based MBA said. Its survey covers about half of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications.

The boost in applications coincided with another drop in mortgage rates, as the government's efforts to thaw out the home-mortgage market show further signs of having the desired effect.

According to the MBA's survey, rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.04% last week, down from 5.18% the previous week. This interest rate hasn't been lower since the 4.99% average rate seen for the week ended June 13, 2003.

Jane Fox : 12/24/2008 9:23:14 AM

Crude is down another 4.46% this morning and has now reached a level not seen since June 2002. Simple amazing. Link

Jane Fox : 12/24/2008 9:18:48 AM

I find it amazing the futures are actually testing their overnight highs. The economic news out this morning has been nothing but dismal and the market is able to hold its head above water. Link

Jane Fox : 12/24/2008 9:12:14 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. labor market continued to worsen in recent weeks, with the unemployment lines stretching to the longest in 26 years, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

First-time applications for state unemployment benefits jumped by 30,000 to a seasonally adjusted 586,000 in the week ending Dec. 20, the government said, based on reports of actual filings at state offices around the nation. That's the highest since November 1982.

The four-week average of new claims - which smooth out distortions caused by bad weather, strikes or the timing of holidays - rose by 13,750 to 558,000, the highest since December 1982.

Meanwhile, the number of people collecting benefits fell by 17,000 to 4.37 million in the week ending Dec. 13. The four-week average of continuing claims rose by 93,000 to 4.32 million, the most since December 1982

Jane Fox : 12/24/2008 9:10:04 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Orders for U.S.-made durable goods fell 1% in November, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday, as orders for transportation goods fell 7.4%. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected an overall decline of 3%. Excluding transportation, orders rose 1.2%. Orders for core capital equipment - the kind of investments businesses make to expand or update their productive capacity - rose 4.7% in November, after a 6.6% decline in October. November shipments of durable goods fell 2.6% after a 3.4% decline in October. Excluding transportation, shipments fell 2.4% in November after a 2.7% decline in October. New orders for durable goods in October were revised to a decline of 8.4%, compared with a prior estimate of a 6.9% drop.

Jane Fox : 12/24/2008 9:07:57 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Consumer spending fell 0.6% in November, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday, amid mounting job losses and persistent economic uncertainty. Analysts polled by MarketWatch had expected a 0.7% decline. Real consumer spending rose 0.6%. Personal income fell 0.2% in November, after a 0.1% gain in October. Analysts were looking for no income gain in November. Real disposable income rose 1% in November, after a 0.7% gain in the prior month. As analysts had expected, the core personal consumption expenditure price index was unchanged in November. This index was also unchanged in October, and is up 1.9% in the past year.

Keene Little : 12/24/2008 1:31:59 AM

Wednesday's pivot table (corrected the YM weekly and monthly numbers): Link

I've been pointing out the importance for SPX 851 to hold but as of tonight I'm thinking that's not quite as important now, based on the type of decline we could be getting from last Wednesday (possible descending wedge to finish the pullback). The pattern could tolerate a pullback to about 840 and not necessarily be bearish. In fact it could set up a very nice rally into January, shown in pink on the 60-min chart: Link

Several possibilities remain, and will likely remain for another week or more, as to what could play out from here, including the sideways triangle pattern (dark red) so continue to stay loose and don't overcommit to any trades right now. The potential for chop and whipsaw remains higher than usual, especially during a holiday period. We might have to wait until after January 1 to see some kind of resolution out of this mess.

OI Technical Staff : 12/23/2008 10:00:04 PM

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