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Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 9:52:33 PM

February Crude Oil (cl09g) settled up $2.36, or +6.68% at $37.71. Nine (9) day losing streak ends.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 9:26:26 PM

Last 3 WEEKLY Pivot Matrix Link

Can really see volatility subside (not just from VIX.X measure), but Actual Week Range / % of Range Traded. Getting some compression.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 9:15:00 PM

Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly Index Pivot Matrix at this Link

Early test for STRENGTH next week likely to be the S&P 100 (OEX.X) above WKLY R1/MONTHLY Pivot.

NDX.X WKLY R2 overlaps Quarter S2 noted for a couple of weeks now.

RUT.X MONTHLY Pivot noted this week, and WEAKNESS on anything much below WKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 8:10:38 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 8:07:47 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Keene Little : 12/26/2008 4:14:55 PM

Market ended up marginally but it's hard to take away anything from today's (or this week's) trading. The price pattern doesn't have me leaning one way or the other for the start of next week. If forced to pick one side I'd say we'll get a little more consolidation on Monday before heading lower but it might only be good for a relatively minor new low below this past Monday's before reversing back up again. It's a good time to be flat or hedged.

I hope everyone has a good weekend.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 4:06:26 PM

DXY's 04:00 tick 80.96

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 4:03:08 PM

China Urges Foreign Firms To Form Trade Unions

DJ- China has renewed a call for multinational firms to allow trade unions, accusing those who have so far refused of having "double standards," state media said Friday.

Seventeen percent of Fortune 500 firms with regional headquarters in China hadn't formed trade unions as of October, the China Daily said, citing Guo Wencai, an official with the All China Federation of Trade Unions.

Guo accused the companies of practicing "double standards," pointing to the fact that they allowed workers to organize in their own countries.

"They have allowed trade unions to be formed in their home countries but refused to do so in China, using various excuses," he said.

"The formation of trade unions in companies is part of the law as long as they operate in China."

Those reluctant to embrace trade unions in the country included big names such as software giant Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), financial powerhouse Morgan Stanley (MS) and Japanese conglomerate Marubeni Corp. (MARUY), he added.

The China Daily said 483 of the Fortune 500 companies are operating in the country and 357 of them have set up their regional headquarters here.

Many multinationals have stopped recruitment and some have cut jobs in China due to the impact of the global economic crisis, the newspaper said.

"Given the situation, we strongly ask them to allow trade unions to be formed" to protect workers' rights, said Guo.

China's trade union law bars workers from forming independent unions or organizing collective bargaining activities outside the All China Federation, which claims over 200 million members and is controlled by the government.

Microsoft, Morgan Stanley and Marubeni weren't immediately available to comment when contacted Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 3:55:08 PM

RUT.X 475.64 +1.09% ... to the close

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 3:40:45 PM

IBM +1.20%

XOM +1.82%

CVX +1.09%

MCD -0.26%

PG +0.39%

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 3:39:22 PM

Short +48

Long +15

Long +40

+$515 ... worth showing up for.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 3:37:26 PM

YM 8,480 ... stop from 8,440

Keene Little : 12/26/2008 3:34:04 PM

New daily high for SPX but NDX is lagging slightly. In fact NDX would test this morning's high at 1190.53 at about the same time it would test its broken uptrend line from Monday. 10-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 3:32:31 PM

USO $29.17 +0.55% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 3:31:45 PM

YM 8,491 ( see RUT.X action, KNOW where you are, how much more you might get) ... stop to 8,480

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 3:31:00 PM

YM 8,483 ... squeeze the juice and bring it up to 8,475.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 3:23:00 PM

YM 8,475 ... if not out of day trade long, then bring it up further to 8,470

Keene Little : 12/26/2008 3:22:49 PM

We've got an honest to goodness rally on our hands--SPX is up 4.50 points!

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 3:20:29 PM

Drake the dog's quarterly supply of rawhide bones even!

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 3:20:01 PM

YM 8,476 ... there's the "stocking stuffer" for the kids' stockings yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 3:18:40 PM

YM 8,473 ... now bring it up to 8,460. Secure 20 x $5 = $100 on this up move.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 3:17:52 PM

YM 8,469 ... either they drive it from here, or its flounders to the close.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 3:15:31 PM

USO $29.07 +0.17% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 3:14:33 PM

My thought's on trade management anyway ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 3:14:00 PM

See, this afternoon bounce to 8,464. Not unlike your expectation from 01:09:19 PM. So a long from 8,440 ... if closes out here, then you're probably done for the day. If you hold to the close, but STOP at 8,450, then maybe you add a little more gain with the a/d line holding strong.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 3:10:37 PM

RUT.X a little shy of its DAILY R2 still.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 3:08:53 PM

YM 8,462 ... now bring it tighter to 8,450 ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 3:04:43 PM

NYSE a/d 2,048/953

Keene Little : 12/26/2008 3:03:58 PM

Just shy of SPX 871 is the 62% retracement of this morning's decline and where the bounce off today's low will have two equal legs up. If this is just a corrective bounce it should fail in this area.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 3:03:51 PM

USO $28.97 -0.17% ... right at WKLY S2/DAILY Pivot overlap.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 3:02:35 PM

YM 8,460 ... day trade bulls can bring stop to even now, or keep your finger on the button.

Some of the bid in oil a nice little "surprise" so let it run if it will.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 2:38:04 PM

XOM +1.17%

CVX +0.58% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 2:37:30 PM

USO $29.07 +0.13% ... edges green.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 2:35:53 PM

Maybe a "stocking stuffer" to 8,475

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 2:34:24 PM

YM stop could go real tight and low risk @ 8,430

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 2:33:48 PM

YM 8,440 ... can be day trade long here with RUT.X pressing best levels.

Jane Fox : 12/26/2008 2:26:50 PM

AD line and volume are into a really nice rally as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 2:22:38 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 12/26/2008 2:17:21 PM

Holy Mogoally the DOW is up 11 points.

Keene Little : 12/26/2008 2:01:00 PM

The downtrend line from Tuesday is just below SPX 870. The uptrend line from Monday is nearing 865. Currently trading near 868, at today's pace it could take the rest of the afternoon to reach either level.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 1:58:20 PM

RUT.X 470.68 ... if it closes here, would close BELOW this week's pivot.

Next week's would be 446.73, 458.70, Piv= 472.82, 484.79, 498.91.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 1:54:36 PM

Let's see what the RUT.X might hold in store ... still ABOVE its MONTHLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 1:53:52 PM

DIA 84.77 +0.34% ... if the DIA were to close here today, this would also be NEXT WEEK'S WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 1:45:54 PM

That little "pop" came to 8,457. (see 01:09:19)

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 1:44:59 PM

YM 8,445 ... might blow out the long ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 1:37:27 PM

You figure if you're going to take time away from family and friends, you might as well try to protect SOME gain in what should likely be a rather QUIET session.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 1:36:11 PM

YM 8,455 ... now bring bull stop to some type of profitability.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 1:34:38 PM

YM 8,445 ... day trade bull probably brings stop to even on that action.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 1:30:49 PM

Some notable volume with it too ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 1:19:43 PM

GLD $85.32 +2.22% ... tries to reclaim its QUARTERLY Pivot (85.03) here again today.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 1:18:31 PM

gold caught a decent bid the last 20-minutes.

Jane Fox : 12/26/2008 1:14:31 PM

Here is some interesting facts about 2008:

Since the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee began lowering interest rates on Sep. 18, 2007 the S&P 500 has declined more than 30%.

Since the Treasury Department's proposal on September 19 of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), separately, a new $50 billion program to insure investments and the termination of short selling on financial stocks, the SPX is down 16%, the BKX is down 22%, the HGX is down 21%. the SOX is (or that the SOX are) down 17%.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 1:14:24 PM

If day trade long the YM now at 8,430-ish, can bring a stop to even, or just below the day's low.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 1:11:54 PM

USO $28.56 -1.58% ... no trade at MONTHLY S2 ($27.06). Has been below DAILY S2, bumping S1 from underneath. D Pivot= $28.99

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 1:10:23 PM

FXY 109.80 (unch)

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 1:09:58 PM

YM 8,431 ... low/high so far 8,420/8,495

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 1:09:19 PM

YM may get a bounce up to around 8,465 ... stall a bit, then gravitate back down to here by the close.

Keene Little : 12/26/2008 1:06:06 PM

With the exciting morning and lunch periods over anyone want to guess what the afternoon period will be like?

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 12:56:38 PM

YM 8,424 ... DAILY Pivot (regular session derived)

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 12:54:37 PM

IBM +0.18%

XOM +1.41%

CVX +0.40%

MCD -0.60%

PG -0.28%

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 12:53:19 PM

YM 8,432 ... not a bad spot with 10-minutes left

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 12:50:17 PM

RUT.X 471.12 +0.13% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 12:48:44 PM

INDU 8,482

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 12:48:03 PM

If day trade short the YM from 8,480-ish, either look to cover here, or have stop just above 8,450. Might get the DAILY Pivot 8,424 to the close, but that would be "quick" little drop.

YM 8,442

Keene Little : 12/26/2008 12:29:01 PM

The NDX daily chart shows what I consider the two higher probability moves into January--either a leg up into opex or more choppy sideways consolidation into the end of January. Either scenario points to a new low after that (which could happen from here but I'm not seeing anything yet to suggest that possibility). Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 12:17:01 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 12/26/2008 11:42:14 AM

This is a very good example of how the internals reflect the changing of the guards and the bears are getting stronger; AD ratio falls, Ad volume falls and TRIN climbs. The only thing that would convince me the bears have actually taken control is if the VIX were making new daily highs but that is just not the case so noone as the ball. Now how is that for mixing up my metaphors. Link

Keene Little : 12/26/2008 11:22:57 AM

I'm going to make a bold prediction this morning--the market will finish flat at the end of the day. If I'm still awake by then I'll be able to see if I'm correct or not. It's a good day to catch up on some reading material that's been piling up in my in box.

Keene Little : 12/26/2008 10:50:41 AM

The DOW will maintain a bullish price pattern into January as long as its December 12th low near 8347 is not violated. If price consolidates into the end of the month, as shown in dark red on its daily chart, we could see a bullish resolution into January opex before heading south again: Link

Jane Fox : 12/26/2008 10:43:57 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- General Motors Corp. shares jumped more than 19% to $3.87 in early trades Friday after its lending unit had its application to become a bank holding company approved earlier this week. GMAC Financial Services, of which GM holds a 49% stake, said Wednesday the approval means it will have "expanded opportunities for funding and access to capital, which will provide increased flexibility and stability." GMAC had sought the designation in part because it wanted to tap the availability of federal bailout funds. Cerberus Capital Management, which also bought Chrysler, owns 51% of GMAC.

Keene Little : 12/26/2008 10:36:36 AM

After its initial drop this morning NDX has been consolidating and it looks like a bearish continuation pattern.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 10:33:37 AM

GM shares +16% after GMAC gets bank holding status ... Reuters Story Link

Jane Fox : 12/26/2008 10:26:07 AM

Here are the charts of the internals I watch and they are bullish. The AD ratio (top chart) is flatlined but when it is at 2.22 that is OK and considered bullish. If the ratio is climbing that is only a plus for the bulls.

The most important two are the AD volume and the VIX and they moving in opposite directions so both bullish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 10:20:52 AM

Volumes just about equal to that of Wednesday and it could be a repeat performance.

INDU 8,527 nearing its DAILY R2 8,540. I would be surprised if we saw much more than that. If so, then MONTHLY Pivot next level above (8,631).

Keene Little : 12/26/2008 10:15:55 AM

Oil keeps stair-stepping lower and the bottoms of the parallel down-channels that USO is in keep heading lower. The potential support zone from the channels is now at $22-25 (currently trading near $28). The bearish news on the daily chart is the break of the uptrend lines by MACD and RSI: Link . A break of the bullish divergences with a drop to a lower low in the oscillators, which RSI has already done, sets off some sell signals.

The contract itself (February prices) is nearing potential support that I've been showing on the daily chart--the long-term uptrend line from 1998 near $32 (about $4 lower): Link . Still waiting for a long play to set up but I don't see anything that makes me want to buy oil yet.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 10:14:51 AM

10:00 Internals at this Link

Wednesday's Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 10:03:17 AM

QQQQ $29.07 -0.24% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2008 10:02:53 AM

MSH.X 330.06 -0.22%
BTK.X 622.97 -0.04%
XCI.X 530.21 +0.08%
SMH $16.73 -0.77%
IIX.X 129.77 (unch)
NWX.X 138.00 -0.30%

Keene Little : 12/26/2008 9:50:05 AM

Get some more eggnog for the elves. They're feeling faint, especially over in the tech department.

Jane Fox : 12/26/2008 9:40:36 AM

Crude hit $35.13 (February contract) on Wednesday and is now tradeing at $35.63.

Jane Fox : 12/26/2008 9:38:38 AM

The AD line opens up bullishly at +779.

Keene Little : 12/26/2008 9:24:19 AM

We've got a nice little start to a post-Christmas rally. Santa's elves are trying their best to salvage something here. First order of business for them is to tackle the downtrend line from December 17th near SPX 876, about 9 points above Wednesday's close. The same downtrend line for ES is just above 871 and it's pre-market high is 871.75.

Jane Fox : 12/26/2008 9:10:35 AM

Good morning all. All three of you out there. Well maybe more than three, maybe four. Gunna be a sloooowwww day today and the overnight charts agree. Not much happened overnight although previous day highs were broken but considering the markets closed at daily highs that was not much of a feat. Link

Jane Fox : 12/26/2008 9:04:13 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Amazon.com Inc. said Friday that the 2008 holiday season "finished as its best ever." It said it sold over 6.3 million items worldwide on its peak day, Dec. 15. The online retailer also said it had shipped more than 99% of orders in time to meet holiday deadlines. Amazon said top sellers in consumer electronics included Samsung's 52-inch LCD high-definition television, the Apple iPod touch and the Acer Aspire One 8.9-inch netbook. "We are extremely grateful to our customers," said Amazon Chief Executive and founder Jeff Bezos.

Keene Little : 12/26/2008 12:01:06 AM

Thursday's pivot table: Link

I hope everyone had a merry Christmas and time away from the market. Ready for an exciting Friday? Hello? Is anyone out there?

This week's trading may not be telling us much as far as the longer term price pattern but it's all we've got so I'll continue to use it the best I can while waiting for clarity. Wednesday's half-day session saw SPX hold above Monday's low and an uptrend line from December 12th which might be the bottom of a trading range into the end of the month, shown in dark red on the 60-min chart: Link

As shown with the dashed line it's possible we'll see SPX drop a little lower before starting the rally so if we get a slight dip Friday watch for a possible reversal off the 845 area. A drop below 845 would suggest something more immediately bearish and a potential move to 810 if not lower. I can't show all the possibilities as price chops around directionless but the daily chart shows the key levels and the possible price paths from here: Link

OI Technical Staff : 12/25/2008 9:59:59 PM

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