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Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 6:30:34 PM

Dow 30 Components Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 6:16:47 PM

Feb Crude Oil (cl09g) settled up $2.31, or 6.13% at $40.02.

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 6:14:43 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch Link

Keene Little : 12/29/2008 5:37:50 PM

Sorry for my absence today--the surgery went well but any cut of the abdominal muscles is still painful. It's amazing how many times we flex our stomach muscles without realizing it.

As for today's market, we're still not getting any clean ending patterns in either direction. This continues to suggest we could see more consolidation this week rather than a big move in either direction. One bullish thing I see is that today's low was met with bullish divergence compared to the December 22nd low. But that divergence may be more of a "resetting" of the oscillators rather than a bullish indication.

The SPX 60-min chart I posted last night ( Link ) pointed to the possibility for a dip today followed by a bounce and then a selloff (pink). That possibility remains so a break below today's low would be bearish. Otherwise a choppy rise up to the 900 area remains the other possibility (dark red). Updated 60-min chart: Link

The bearish thing I see is the excessive bullishness in the ISEE call/put ratio--way too many bullish bets as to where this market is heading (it was above 200 all day today). I'm putting together a couple of ISEE charts that I'll show tonight--it may be giving us a bearish heads up.

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 4:12:28 PM

RUT.X looks to have finished ... 466.15 -2.22% ... Holds its MONTHLY Pivot at the close.

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 4:11:29 PM

YM 8,469

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 4:07:21 PM

USO finished $30.90 +6.18% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 4:05:52 PM

YM 8,460 ... taps overlapping DAILY/WKLY Pivot (regular session derived)

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 4:04:54 PM

YM 8,450

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 4:03:34 PM

DXY's 04:00 tick 81.28

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 3:57:18 PM

YM 8,411 ... still tentative as it attempts to retrace 61.8% of day's range. DAILY S1 just above (8,430).

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 3:51:08 PM

YM 8,410

INDU 8,462

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 3:50:36 PM

RUT.X 465.33 -2.39% ... at the M Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 3:18:09 PM

FXY $110.23 +0.24% ..

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 3:17:25 PM

USO $30.69

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 3:17:12 PM

RUT.X 465.47

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 3:17:03 PM

YM 8,389

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 3:16:37 PM

YM 8,400 ... bring it up to 8,389

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 3:13:06 PM

YM 8,410 ... bring it up to 8,385.

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 3:10:38 PM

YM 8,407 ... day trade bull from 8,358 likely brings a stop up again ... to 8,377

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 3:07:20 PM

YM 8,380

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 3:07:10 PM

TRIN 1.32

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 3:07:02 PM

NYSE a/d 1,044/2,010

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 3:03:51 PM

IF 8,400, THEN 8,377. ELSE break-even.

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 3:02:54 PM

YM 8,373 ... can't really do that yet.

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 3:02:18 PM

Or, if DOWN 19 points on the day, then to profit of 19.

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 3:01:27 PM

YM 8,371 ... day trade bull probably brings stop to even.

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 2:52:18 PM

YM 8,346 ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 2:51:49 PM

Modest selling late in the 10-year ... Yield still down 5.8 bp at 2.079%. WKLY S1 here.

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 2:49:18 PM

YM 8,347 ... day trade bull probably brings a stop up to 8,330.

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 2:46:03 PM

USO $30.55 +4.98% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 2:45:39 PM

TRIN 1.39

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 2:45:32 PM

NYSE a/d 967/2,088

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 2:45:01 PM

YM 8,346 ... bulls need the kick here.

Keene Little : 12/29/2008 2:44:51 PM

I'm back but from my little surgery (small abdominal hernia repair) but it's not very comfortable sitting up right now. So just a brief comment and I'll be back after the market closes.

The choppy price pattern continues and the December 12th lows are still holding. That maintains the possibility for the continuation of a sideways consolidation betweeb SPX 850 and 920 for another few days. But so far the bounce off this morning's low looks like a correction. If the market breaks down further we will probably see the December 12th lows break. That could usher in some stronger selling.

I'll check back later to see how the day finishes.

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 2:33:44 PM

YM 8,358 ... would be looking day trade bull again here.

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 2:26:38 PM

USO $30.19 +3.74% ... back to probe its WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 2:12:40 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 2:00:32 PM

IBM $80.54 -0.97%
XOM $77.46 +0.34%
CVX $55.50 +0.86%
MCD $60.10 -1.57%
PG $59.67 -1.42%

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 1:59:12 PM

YM 8,353 ... reclaims WKLY S1 (8,346)

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 1:55:12 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $16.71 (unch) ... session low has been $16.54.

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 1:44:07 PM

DineEquity (DIN) $10.11 -7.75% ... Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 1:28:45 PM

CAL-MAINE FOODS NET FALLS 32% AS DEMAND WEAKENS

DJ- The owner of Eggland's Best and Farmhouse brands reports net income of $27.2 million, or $1.14 a share, as strong retail demand for eggs was offset by declining demand from institutional and food service customers.

CALM $26.36 -10.58% ...

Jane Fox : 12/29/2008 1:22:55 PM

The head and shoulder currently building on the DOW chart is taking a long time to finish but I am still confident it will give us a profitable long trade soon. The bullish MACD divergences and head and shoulders are just too hard to ignore but the bulls are certainly making us play the waiting game. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 1:19:42 PM

COMMERCIAL PAPER OUTSTANDING FALLS $6.9B

DJ- The U.S. commercial paper market shrinks for the first time in nine weeks, by $6.9 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis, for the week ended Dec. 24, according to data released by the Fed. The previous week, that figure was up $8.3 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 1:18:47 PM

DALLAS FED DEC MANUFACTURING INDEX CONTRACTS

DJ- Texas area factory operators suffered another month of contracting activity in December, as a report from the Dallas Fed says its production index fell to -33.0 in December from -21.0 in November.

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 1:17:58 PM

ROMANO TAPPED AS FREDDIE'S CREDIT CHIEF

DJ- As Freddie Mac's top risk management exec, Romano will oversee credit policy, counterparty credit risk management and loss forecasting, the company says. He will report directly to Chief Executive David Moffett.

FRE $0.71 -4.05% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 1:08:25 PM

INDU 8,380 -1.57%

SPX 858.12 -1.68%

OEX 412.35 -1.51%

NDX 1,160 -2.16%

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 1:07:19 PM

RUT.X 462.42 -3.00% ... accelerates to downside. Trades WKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 12:59:52 PM

Chicago Fed: November Midwest Mfg Index ... fell 1.6% on Month; -10.8% on Year.

Regional Auto Output: +1.1% M/M; -24.0% Y/Y
Steel Output: -4.3% M/M; -14.1% Y/Y
Machinery Output: -2.0% M/M; -6.6% Y/Y
Resources Output: -1.9% M/M; -4.8% Y/Y


Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 12:45:52 PM

RUT.X 465

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 12:45:17 PM

YM 8,365 ... Looks vulnerable still to WKLY S1 (8,346) regular sessions derived.

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 12:39:49 PM

YM 8,374 ... YM day trade bull likely brings a stop to 8,365 from here. Lowers target to 8,430 and DAILY S1 (regular session derived).

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 12:22:48 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 12:06:35 PM

European Markets Link ... "holding up well" ... FTSE +2.44%, DAX +1.63%, CAC-40 +0.47% ... relative to where we're at here in U.S. at this hour.

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 12:03:22 PM

YM 8,384 ... can be looking day trade long here. Target a pop to 8,445

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 11:49:12 AM

Israel mounts third day of Gaza raids ... Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 11:35:14 AM

Should begin to see some covered call selling on the major averages.

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 11:34:27 AM

11:27 AM ET Market Watch as RUT.X trades MONTHLY Pivot Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 11:33:48 AM

RVX.X 55.00 +4.58% ...

RUT.X 464.85 -2.50% ..

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 11:23:14 AM

USO $29.04 -0.24% ... gives back gains. Morning highs found selling around its WKLY Pivot ($29.98)

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 11:21:29 AM

SNDK $8.68 -3.48% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 11:15:16 AM

DDX.X alert! 49.19 -2.74% ... this is "neckline" from 60-minute interval h/s bottom. This is MONTHLY Pivot.

This is "must hold" on near-term basis as will be RUT.X trade at MONTHLY Pivot.

Usually a good time for day trade YM futures traders to be "flat," or short with snug-down stops

Jane Fox : 12/29/2008 11:13:27 AM

It is very obvious the bears have the ball today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 11:07:44 AM

11:00 AM ET Majors, RUT.X (30-minute interval) as RUT.X pulls into MONTHLY pivot. Has spent some time (60-minutes) BELOW upward trend. Link

Jane Fox : 12/29/2008 11:07:28 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- A group of private equity and hedge fund firms are close to buying failed bank IndyMac Bancorp, according to news reports published over the weekend.

The Wall Street Journal and New York Times both reported news of IndyMac's possible sale to private-equity firm Dune Capital Management, with the Times adding that another private equity firm, J.C. Flowers & Co., and hedge fund firm Paulson & Co., were also part of the buying group.

The Journal reported that the bank's new owners are expected to have a federal thrift charter.

Jane Fox : 12/29/2008 10:48:11 AM

Here's another look at the overnight charts. Link

Jane Fox : 12/29/2008 10:46:26 AM

The overnight rally has been wiped out and then some. Link

Jane Fox : 12/29/2008 10:24:24 AM

Thanks for your help Linda.

Jane Fox : 12/29/2008 10:23:39 AM

The AD line and ratio were the strong internals today and now the VIX is following suit, making new daily highs. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/29/2008 10:23:06 AM

Now that Jeff has joined to contribute his able commentary, I'll bow out again and continue with the plans I had for today. I hope everyone has a great New Year!

Linda Piazza : 12/29/2008 10:21:45 AM

The TED spread, one type of measure of default risk, has been declining sharply off this year's highs, but it's still well above historical norms. It was last at 1.40 on my delayed Bloomberg quote. It had formed a head-and-shoulders formation that was confirmed in October. The TED spread has since dropped toward the target suggested by the head-and-shoulders formation, also dropping to long-term rising support, at about 1.30-1.40. It's ready to either bounce from that long-term support, then, or fall through it to deeper support, perhaps in the 0.92-1.07 or even 0.70-0.80 region. We just don't know which it is yet. It might be a good idea to keep an eye on the TED spread over the next week or two for corroboration or divergence from what we see the markets doing. Generally, the U.S. equity markets move in opposition to the TED spread.

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 10:21:37 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 12/29/2008 10:17:12 AM

Crude has almost lost everything it gained overnight and is up only $1.00 now. Crude sellers are still the stronger side. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/29/2008 10:15:28 AM

Dow Chemical (NYSE:DOW) $15.00 -20.82% ... chemical giant getting hit hard this morning after Kuwait's decision to end $17.4 billion petrochemical joint venture with the company. Some analysts now believe the company's plans to buy Rohm & Haas (NYSE:ROH) $50.27 -20.9% could fall through.

Linda Piazza : 12/29/2008 10:16:09 AM

I see Jane is alone today. I won't be able to contribute all day, but I thought I would sign in and help her out a bit. I first wanted to note that the RUT, after coiling most of last week, is currently testing a best-fit rising trendline off the 12/22 low. Depending on one's outlook, that rise off that low could have been characterized as either a triangle (neutral) or a bear flag (bearish), but in either case, bulls don't want to see it broken on a 30-minute closing basis. The line appears to be at about 471.50, but my charting service, while great on some matters, doesn't allow as easy an assessment of where a trendline crosses as do some others.

The RVX, the RUT's volatility index, has broken above potential resistance in the 53.87 region, too, although values aren't exactly springing higher toward next resistance at 54.86 yet. (These are determined on a 15-minute chart, using Keltner bands or channels.) I would stay on the watch for a possible false RUT breakdown until and unless we see the RVX break higher, too, especially since the RUT is now testing a lower trendline, an exact and not best-fit one. Right now, though, Keltner channels suggest a potential RUT drop to 468.14.

Jane Fox : 12/29/2008 10:06:22 AM

The DOW is down a whole 14 points. THe 700-900 point moves are probably history now, at least lets hope so.

Jane Fox : 12/29/2008 10:05:12 AM

Although the AD line and ratio are both falling which almost negates the VIX divergence.

Jane Fox : 12/29/2008 10:03:49 AM

The VIX is falling along with the S&P futures - these two should be moving opposite to one another - so I'm thinking we will see a bottom soon.

Jane Fox : 12/29/2008 9:38:44 AM

AD line opens at -104 and the VIX higher than its previous day highs so bearish.

Jane Fox : 12/29/2008 9:27:31 AM

Here is your chart of Crude and even though it is up over $2.00 it is still not even to the 20 EMA. Link

Jane Fox : 12/29/2008 9:11:02 AM

Good Morning all. It was a strange overnight session because ON highs broke previous day highs and ON lows broke previous day lows. You just don?t see this much. It could be a factor of the low volatility we saw on Friday but still if you there is low volatility intraday then that usually means low volatility overnight as well.

In any case there was a nice rally overnight and the only thing I can see that spurred it was the Crude futures up 6%?? Link

Keene Little : 12/29/2008 12:20:20 AM

I will be away from the market for most of the day on Monday, if not the whole day. I'm scheduled for some minor same-day surgery and I should be back home before the market closes. If not then I'll provide some end-of-day commentary.

Keene Little : 12/28/2008 11:59:32 PM

Monday's pivot table: Link

While Santa didn't arrive during Christmas week he was able to keep the Grinch at bay. It was more or less a standoff between the two although Santa was able to give a few bulls something more than a lump of coal. Whether the bulls will have to give their small presents back in the coming week is the big question. The SPX 60-min chart shows price holding above an uptrend line from the December 12th low, currently near 861 and it broke its downtrend line from December 17th on Friday. I'm showing the possibility for a retest of both lines on Monday and perhaps a small bounce before heading lower (shown in pink): Link

The other possibility, confirmed with a move above 881, is for price to consolidate in a slightly larger pattern into the end of the month before rallying into January (shown in dark red). These two scenarios are shown on the daily chart: Link . The NDX daily chart shows a similar setup: Link

OI Technical Staff : 12/28/2008 9:59:59 PM

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