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Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 5:55:36 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 5:45:40 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 5:40:07 PM

Denver Broncos Fire Mike Shanahan

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 4:31:08 PM

Citigroup (C) $6.80 +3.50% ...

Bank of America (BAC) $13.24 +2.31% ...

Decent recovery from S&P review of CDOs.

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 4:14:16 PM

dj- Governor Blagojevich Appoints Roland Burris As US Senator

Roland Burris Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 4:03:30 PM

DXY's 04:00 tick 80.89

Keene Little : 12/30/2008 4:02:16 PM

SPX is now making its way towards the upside target at 895. Whether it will stop there is anyone's guess but considering there are two Fibs (62% retracement and 162% projection) and a downtrend line from November 4th all located at that level I'd be looking for at least a pullback from there.

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 4:02:01 PM

SPX 888.41 +2.18% ... lurches above WKLY R1.

Jane Fox : 12/30/2008 3:57:08 PM

You can believe this or not but I was going to put in my 3:28 post, "Late day rally anyone"?

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 3:55:05 PM

OEX gets the trade at WKLY R1 ...

Keene Little : 12/30/2008 3:52:25 PM

SPX has now followed the RUT to a new daily high and the DOW almost made it but not yet. NDX is dragging and is only making a half-hearted effort this afternoon. The bearish non-confirmation with the techs needs to be watched carefully here.

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 3:44:22 PM

INDU/DIA and SMH still the only equity-based indexes tracked in Pivot Matrix to see trade at their respective WKLY R1.

OEX high of 424.42 pretty close.

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 3:37:26 PM

Likely place for MR day trade bull to get flat.

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 3:36:52 PM

RUT.X 476.29 +2.17% ... probes upward trend from underneath.

Keene Little : 12/30/2008 3:30:24 PM

The RUT is making new daily highs and seems to be all alone in doing so. I'm not sure if that's bullish (indicating a confident run into the higher-beta small caps by fund managers) or bearish (too much bullishness as evidenced by a continuation of the high ISEE call/put ratio). There certainly appears to be an expectation we'll have a January rally. While I do see higher potential I'm not sure I'd buy into that theory without watching my long trades very closely.

Jane Fox : 12/30/2008 3:28:45 PM

Internals are still pretty darn bullish. I particularly like the trajectory of the AD volume and the VIX making new daily lows. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 3:25:24 PM

RUT.X 475.57 +2.02% ... best levels of the session.

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 3:24:07 PM

dj- Israel Defense Minister: Looking at 48-hour Gaza Truce Faborably

Keene Little : 12/30/2008 3:19:00 PM

Two equal legs down from this morning's high is at SPX 877.1. The 2nd leg down would achieve 162% of the 1st leg down at 873.17. As mentioned before, a 38% retracement of the leg up from yesterday is at 874.42. So we've got a potential support zone in this area.

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 3:05:17 PM

SPX 881 +1.33% ... snug against MONTHLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 3:04:25 PM

RUT.X 474.65 +1.82% ... snug against WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 3:03:55 PM

NYSE a/d 2,241/834

NASDAQ a/d 1,752/1,155

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 2:36:10 PM

Fannie Mae's delinquency rate at 1.89% in Oct. Vs. Sept's 1.72%

Keene Little : 12/30/2008 2:33:28 PM

We could be in the middle of a larger a-b-c pullback and the bounce we're getting now could lead to a sharper c-wave down so stay aware of that possibility here. A 38% retracement of the rally from yesterday is at 874.42 makes for a good downside target for now if we see another leg down this afternoon.

Jane Fox : 12/30/2008 2:31:40 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Senate Democrats warned Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich on Tuesday that they'll block his appointment of Roland Burris to fill the Senate seat vacated by President-elect Barack Obama. The embattled Illinois governor is expected to name Burris, the former Illinois attorney general, to the Senate seat on Tuesday. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nevada, reiterated Tuesday that Democrats won't seat "anyone" appointed by the governor. Blagojevich was arrested earlier this month for, among other things, trying to sell Obama's Senate seat.

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 2:21:22 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 12/30/2008 2:12:59 PM

So far the pullback from today's high looks corrective--more like a bull flag consolidation than the start of something more bearish. As long as it doesn't drop sharply out the bottom of the flag pattern it will maintain its bullishness.

Keene Little : 12/30/2008 1:35:28 PM

Thanks Vincent, couldn't have said it any better: Link

Keene Little : 12/30/2008 1:32:22 PM

It's been a while since I've shown a chart of GOOG. After battling its 50-dma this month (as have the major indices) it has pulled back but the pattern of the pullback leaves the door open for a continuation of the bounce off the November low. But the daily chart shows a tough road ahead for the bulls: Link

They need to get GOOG through its 50-dma (312.75) and then its downtrend line from August (315.70). Following those two lines of defense the bulls would face potential resistance at the apex of its previous triangle pattern back in Oct/November (a common support/resistance level when being retested). Just above that level is the downtrend line from June near 360.

If there's to be no more rally left in the bulls GOOG may run sideways before heading lower again, if not lower directly from here. Like AAPL, these high flyers are good stocks to keep an eye on since they're a reflection of investors' willingness to take on risk.

Keene Little : 12/30/2008 1:09:08 PM

Someone took a big bite out of AAPL--it dropped more than $3 from its mid-day high just above $88. The bounce pattern off its December 22nd low looks very corrective (overlapping highs and lows) and leads me to believe it won't be long before it breaks below its December and then November lows (79.14 on November 21st).

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 1:04:06 PM

12:55 PM Market Watch with RUT.X 60-minute intervals Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 12:58:00 PM

RUT.X 473.18 +1.50% ... session high has pretty much stalled at WKLY Pivot and the upward trend I've been bringing attention to. Tough to be trying a long here in the majors.

Keene Little : 12/30/2008 12:55:07 PM

I always like cartoons that pinpoint what's going on in our society. This Calvin and Hobbes cartoon was drawn more than 15 years ago (thanks to John for sending): Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 12:49:14 PM

Bank of America (BAC) $12.78 -1.23% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 12:48:51 PM

Citigroup (C) $6.57 (unch) ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 12:47:29 PM

S&P to review its methods of rating CDOs, seeks comment

DJ- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services is reviewing how it assigns ratings to collateralized debt obligations of structured-finance securities because of changing market conditions amid the deepening recessions in the U.S. and Europe.

The review is expected to result in changes to the rating agency's assumptions and methodologies and could lead to higher credit enhancement levels for all rating categories, said credit analyst Alfredo De Diego Arozamena.

Changes to the ratings of specific CDOs "will depend on the final criteria adopted, our analysis of the credit quality of its portfolio of underlying securities, its structural features and its investment guidelines," he added.

In outlining recent economic conditions, S&P pointed out that recoveries on defaulted structured-finance assets, especially those lower in the capital structure, are likely to be significantly lower than its original assumptions.

De Diego Arozamena said S&P plans to publish the proposed changes and ask for feedback from market participants.

S&P has been cutting its ratings on CDOs worth hundreds of billions of dollars for the past several months because of credit deterioration and ratings cuts on subprime residential mortgage-backed securities amid the slumping housing market.

CDOs, which use sliced-and-diced assets such as subprime mortgage bonds to create customized products offering various levels of risk, have been at the heart of steep write-downs at big banks and brokerage firms.

Jane Fox : 12/30/2008 12:40:42 PM

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich will appoint the state's former attorney general, Roland Burris, to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by President-elect Barack Obama, according to published reports. Blagojevich -- arrested earlier this month for, among other things, allegedly trying to sell the post -- will make the announcement at press conference here Tuesday afternoon, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Jane Fox : 12/30/2008 12:39:54 PM

I am reading where Blagojevich is going to appoint Roland Burris to Obama's vacant Senate seat.

Jane Fox : 12/30/2008 12:38:54 PM

SEC says it halts $23 million Ponzi scheme

SEC says Ponzi scheme aimed at Haitian-Americans

Keene Little : 12/30/2008 12:36:35 PM

The price pattern for the leg up off yesterday's low is such that any drop below a previous dip low would say the leg up is complete. Therefore if long and wanting to protect profits I would place a stop just below the last low at 11:00 AM (SPX 877). Just keep trailing your stop higher.

Since the leg up from yesterday could be completing the c-wave of an a-b-c bounce off the December 22nd low, a stop and reverse short could be a very good play (for a trade down to 860-865). The 895 upside target for now is based on wave-c achieving 162% of wave-a but it doesn't have to get that high (it's just a good upside target and potential reversal level if it does get there). It's also the 62% retracement of the December 17-22 decline. 30-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 12:27:43 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 12:08:13 PM

YM 8,603 ... simply missed a fantastic bull entry this morning on backtest of WKLY Pivot. If you got it, snug a stop just under WKLY R1 (8,585) regular session derived. DAILY S2 just ahead at 8,615.

Jane Fox : 12/30/2008 12:03:03 PM

The VIX and S&P futures are in sync. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 12:02:44 PM

Bullish % for Malaysia (BPKU) ... Link

Jane Fox : 12/30/2008 12:01:12 PM

Here are your overnight charts. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 11:56:03 AM

Bull % for London Stock Exchange (BPLN) Link ... The "strongest" global bullish % nearing some 2008 historical high levels of bullish %.

Keene Little : 12/30/2008 11:50:53 AM

No bearish divergences so the buying remains strong. Looks like we've got an end-of-month effort to paint the tape. so don't fight it.

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 11:48:50 AM

World Bullish % Bell Curve at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 11:43:36 AM

As noted in yesterday's MM as SMH inched green prior to broader recovery.

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 11:42:57 AM

While QQQQ and SMH "squared up" in the MONTHLY with just one day left, WKLY action suggests SMH a "leading indicator" of strength for the Qs.

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 11:38:42 AM

QQQQ $29.35 +1.59% ... 3-cents shy of MONTHLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 11:38:02 AM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $17.39 +3.20% ... best levels of the session. MONTHLY Pivot here.

Keene Little : 12/30/2008 11:33:27 AM

Pushing back up to a new high and this is the one that could finish the leg up. Watch for a reversal from a new high with negative divergences to confirm otherwise it could just keep truckin' higher.

Keene Little : 12/30/2008 11:24:54 AM

It now takes a drop below SPX 872 to tell us the leg up from yesterday afternoon has completed. In the meantime we could see one more minor new high to complete the leg up. Currently the 38%, 50% and 62% retracements are near SPX 871, 868 and 866 so that's the support zone if we're to see the rally continue after a pullback correction (to 895 minimum). A drop below 862 (78.6% retracement) would be bearish and strongly suggest new lows below yesterday's.

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 11:17:23 AM

CurrencyShares Pound (FXB) $144.22 -0.56% ... 1-point box Link to match futures. Trades a new 52-weeker today.

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 11:09:34 AM

FTSE ($FTSE) has been doing battle with its long-term downward trend. Currently up 71.82-points at 4,391. Link

Today's high of 4,403.80 good for a 3-box reversal back higher.

Traders and investors can click the "Wide Chart" to get more historical perspective of trend.

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 11:03:11 AM

European Markets: Link ... Higher again today after providing some needed stability for U.S. equities yesterday (see Monday's MM and YM bias). Link

Oil's gain didn't hurt that bias.

At 3,163, CAC-40 still a laggard YTD and -43.66%.

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 11:00:03 AM

Citigroup (C) $6.54 -0.45% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 10:59:17 AM

BKX.X 41.85 +0.98% ... WKLY Pivot $42.25 ... untested yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 10:58:33 AM

Bank of America (BAC) $12.69 -1.93% ... looking "sickly" here this morning and starting to undercut 12/01/08 and 12/23/08 relative lows. WKLY S1 ($12.72) not providing an inflection.

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 10:52:41 AM

Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) having slipped below its December low on Monday in intra-day trade, edges down 17.57-points, or -0.95% at 1,833. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 10:50:08 AM

Hang Seng ($HSI) remains rather choppy and finished down 93-points, or -0.65% at 14,236 Link

Jane Fox : 12/30/2008 10:48:47 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- A U.S. Bankruptcy court judge approved a transfer of $28.1 million from Bank of New York Mellon Corp. to cover expenses associated with the liquidation of Bernard Madoff's firm, according to media reports Tuesday. On Dec. 15, the Securities Investor Protection Corporation said it was liquidating Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC and a federal court appointed Irving Picard as trustee of the liquidation. Picard later filed court documents stating he needed the money to help cover employee salaries and other costs associated with the liquidation.

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 10:46:40 AM

Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) gets a little follow through on Tuesday. Finishing up 112-points, or +1.28% at 8,859.56. Link

Keene Little : 12/30/2008 10:43:19 AM

SPX made it up to just shy of 880 and has stalled. Stay aware of a possible reversal back down if you're long the market and want to protect profits. I see the possibility for a small pullback and minor new high before the reversal (for at least a correction of the leg up from yesterday afternoon).

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 10:40:09 AM

Other than SMH at WKLY R1, everyone else just about squared up at WKLY Pivots. INDU/DIA a little stronger at 8,563/$85.57.

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 10:37:46 AM

QQQQ $29.29 +1.38% ... 3-cents above WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 10:36:59 AM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $17.32 +2.78% ... trade WKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 10:14:30 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 12/30/2008 10:12:03 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Consumer confidence hit a record low in December, according to the monthly Conference Board index reported Tuesday, as worries increased about current business and labor market conditions. The December consumer confidence index fell to 38 from a downwardly revised 44.7 in November. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected a December reading of 45.8. "The further erosion of the consumer confidence index reflects the rapid and steep deterioration of economic conditions that occurred in the fourth quarter of 2008," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center. "The overall economic outlook remains quite dismal for the first half of 2009, and only a modest recovery is expected in the second half." Consumers' view of current conditions worsened in December, with those saying business conditions are "bad" rising to 46% from 40.6%, and those saying jobs are "hard to get" rising to 42% from 37.1%.

Keene Little : 12/30/2008 10:05:27 AM

SPX hasn't made it up to 880-881 yet and the wave count for the move up from yesterday's low supports the idea that we'll see the market stair-step a little higher yet. It takes a drop below SPX 867 to negate that expectation and then we're back to the potential of staying inside a relatively small consolidation range.

Jane Fox : 12/30/2008 10:03:06 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Business activity in the Chicago region remained weak in December, according to a report of a Tuesday survey of corporate purchasing managers. The Chicago purchasing managers index inched higher to 34.1% in December from 33.8% in November. Readings below 50% indicate overall business contraction.

Jane Fox : 12/30/2008 10:02:46 AM

MADRID (MarketWatch) -- Ford Motor Co. plans to offer two Lincoln models in 2009 that can park themselves, the company said Tuesday. The automatic parallel-parking system is due to be unveiled next month at the North American Auto Show in Detroit, offered as an option on the Lincoln MKS sedan and MKT crossover-utility vehicle. Ford will also show a hybrid version of the Ford Fusion sedan, which gets 8 more miles a gallon in city driving than Toyota's Camry hybrid, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal. In an interview on Monday, Ford's president of the Americas, Mark Fields, said the company is counting on technological innovations and fuel-efficient cars to set it apart from competitors and lure more people into its showrooms, The Journal said.

Jane Fox : 12/30/2008 10:01:37 AM

DETROIT (MarketWatch) -- Billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian, who had once pledged his support and confidence in Ford Motor Co. , has sold all of his remaining shares in the auto maker. Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. no longer owns any shares in Ford, a Tracinda spokesperson said Monday. Tracinda, which had sold 7.3 million shares of Ford common stock in October, warned that it could continue dumping its holdings through the end of the year. Kerkorian had about 133.5 million shares remaining.

Jane Fox : 12/30/2008 9:48:00 AM

We still have the Chicago PMI out at 9:45ET and then the CB Consumer Confidence at 10:00ET.

Jane Fox : 12/30/2008 10:01:54 AM

Here is a link to the Case Shiller data if you want to take a look at it. THe chart of the 10-city and 20 city composite is quite interesting. Link

Jane Fox : 12/30/2008 9:40:43 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Advanced Micro Devices Inc. on Tuesday said it expects to record an expense of $70 million in its fourth quarter in connection with a restructuring that involved the elimination of 600 jobs, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. AMD also said it expects to record a "material" asset impairment charge related to its 2006 acquisition of ATI Technologies.

Jane Fox : 12/30/2008 9:38:53 AM

AD line opens strong at +861

Keene Little : 12/30/2008 9:35:43 AM

If we get a pullback this morning that retraces about 50% of yesterday afternoon's rally and then turns around and heads higher again it would be bullish (for a move up to SPX 895). Otherwise a push up to 880 early that fails could be a bearish setup. In other words this morning may be more an opportunity to fade the initial move than anything else.

Jane Fox : 12/30/2008 9:34:26 AM

Back in September and October our government threw a lot of money at some banks to help them out so they could start lending again. Since banks are usually leveraged 10:1 if you gave a bank $1billion it in essence could lend $10 Billion but so far the lending is not happening. Seems the banks are between a rock and hard spot; the government is telling the banks to lend more but bank regulators are telling them to take less risk that translates into lending less.

This has also revealed an underlying issue with the bailout money Congress approved, there is not enough accountability in the language of the bill; there is not any real oversight or internal controls, a concern of the Government Accountability Office has voiced.

The one good aspect of the bailout money is that it has made our banks stronger and it just may take a few more months to see how this will all play out. We have never been in a situation like this before so we have no way of measuring how long it should take.

Keene Little : 12/30/2008 9:27:50 AM

It's been a choppy overnight session and equities look like they'll get at least a small pop higher out of the gate with the potential for a small rally if they test their overnight highs.

Jane Fox : 12/30/2008 9:23:48 AM

Crude's little rally yesterday has come to an abrupt halt. Heck the Crude bulls couldn't even get it all the way back to its 20 EMA so we may have to call the EMS to help it out. Link

Jane Fox : 12/30/2008 9:18:12 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- General Motors Corp. said Tuesday that it will provide reduced-rate financing as low as 0% APR for up to 60 months on certain new cars and trucks. The auto maker said the offer is available to qualified buyers today through Jan. 5.

Jane Fox : 12/30/2008 9:12:03 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares of U.S. automakers General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. rallied as much as 11% ahead of the opening bell Tuesday, buoyed by news that GMAC Financial Services had received government funding.

Late Monday, the lending unit of General Motors said it has received $5 billion in funds from the U.S. government's $700 billion bailout program in a move designed to help the struggling company sell new cars and trucks.

In addition, the Treasury Department said it has agreed to lend up to $1 billion to Detroit-based GM so it can take part in a transaction that will help GMAC raise additional needed capital.

Also Tuesday, GMAC said that as a result of the funding, it will lower its minimum credit-score requirement for retail consumers to 621 compared to the 700 minimum level set two months ago.

Jane Fox : 12/30/2008 9:10:33 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch)-- Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities dropped 2.2% in October from the prior month, and had fallen a record 18% from the previous year, according to the Case-Shiller home price index published Tuesday by Standard & Poor's. Prices have fallen in all 20 cities compared with last month and a year ago, and 14 of the 20 metro areas showed record rates of annual declines. For the original 10-city index, prices fell a record 19.1% in the previous 12 months.

Jane Fox : 12/30/2008 9:07:15 AM

Good morning everyone. Overnight the markets were in a mostly sidewinding consolidation. Since both the S&P (ES) and DOW (YM) futures closed close to their respective intraday highs they were the markets that broke those highs ON.

The only market that did not make a new ON high at 0:40ET was the Russell 2000 (TF). Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/30/2008 12:08:34 AM

Closing Internals at this Link

Keene Little : 12/29/2008 10:52:45 PM

Tuesday's pivot table: Link

If the bounce off Monday's low can continue on Tuesday, especially with a rally above last Friday's high near 874, we could see a push above the key level near 881. That would raise the probability that SPX will rally up to at least 895 (a Fib projection for the bounce pattern off the December 22nd low). Further upside potential to the 920-925 area would be next. Otherwise, a drop back below Monday's low could usher in stronger selling. Both scenarios and key levels are shown on the 60-min chart (showing a possible parallel down-channel if the decline continues): Link

We are getting some mixed signals when looking at some of the other technical indicators but as I mentioned Monday afternoon after the market closed, the ISEE call/put ratio is showing too many bulls. A reading over 160 has generally been followed by a peak in the bounce and Monday's reading was 206. I haven't seen that high of a reading in a very long time. It tells me we might have too many betting on a January rally and the market may not oblige. ISEE chart (Oct-Dec): Link

As a comparison, look at the chart for the period of June through August: Link . Notice the same climb in the 10-day moving average heading into the end of August (as it's doing now) and the peak readings over 150. As we know the market took a nosedive in September following these high readings. It's not a given that the same thing will happen from here but a reading of 206, following the high readings in December, says bulls need to be careful--they've got too much company.

OI Technical Staff : 12/29/2008 9:59:59 PM

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