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Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 5:47:16 PM

For the MONTH ... VIX.X 40.00 finishes down 15.28, or -27.6%.

SPX 903.25 finishes up 7.01, or +0.80%.

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 5:47:01 PM

For the QUARTER ... VIX.X 40.00 finishes up 0.61, or +1.5%.

SPX 903.25 finishes down 261.49, or -22.5%.

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 5:32:24 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 5:14:48 PM

FDA DRUG APPROVALS HIGHEST IN THREE YEARS

DJ- Federal regulators approved more new drugs in 2008 than in any of the prior three years, a slight consolation to an industry struggling with greater scrutiny, thousands of layoffs and thinning drug pipelines.

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 5:11:24 PM

'DR. DOOM' DIDN'T PREDICT MADOFF BLOWUP

DJ- Henry Kaufman, the former Salomon Brothers chief economist whose bearish views earned him the nickname "Dr. Doom," lost millions with Madoff, putting him among the most prominent Wall Street figures to emerge as a victim of the alleged Ponzi scheme.

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 5:10:25 PM

TREASURY OVERSPENDS ITS $350B TARP BAILOUT ALLOTMENT

DJ- The Treasury has committed nearly $10 billion more than the $350 billion Congress has authorized for the financial-sector rescue package, which could constrain how the incoming Obama administration deploys the rest of the fund.

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 5:09:35 PM

US FED NAMES 6 NEW MEMBERS FOR ADVISORY BOARD

DJ- The Fed named six new members to the Thrift Institutions Advisory Council and also named Home Federal Bank Chairman and CEO Curtis L. Hage as the board's new president for 2009, and HomeTrust Bank Chairman and CEO F. Edward Broadwell, Jr. as vice president.

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 4:48:27 PM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 4:46:15 PM

GMAC SAYS $21.2B TENDERED IN NOTE EXCHANGE

DJ- GMAC says $21.2 billion in notes were tendered in its note exchange, which it offered in a bid to boost its struggling operations and raise capital. The lender had hoped to raise $30 billion. GM says GMAC has completed deferred payments, on schedule.

Keene Little : 12/31/2008 4:18:36 PM

Futures sold off quite a bit after the cash market closed so that reinforces my belief we'll see an immediate selloff on Friday.

I hope everyone has a great New Year's eve and day (some have already welcomed in the new year). Be safe and we'll be back with you on Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 4:03:53 PM

DXY's 04:00 tick 81.21

Keene Little : 12/31/2008 4:02:42 PM

The setup into the close looks like an immediate down day on Friday. In fact it has to start down immediately otherwise the bulls will maintain control.

Keene Little : 12/31/2008 4:01:36 PM

On the SPX 60-min chart the downtrend line from October 14th through November 4th is up near 918. Due to the differences on the charts that same downtrend line on the daily chart looks like its at 910 which is today's high. It looks good for at least a pullback to the bottom of the trading range we've been in since the December 8th high (so back down to about 860) before rallying higher into January opex (dark red on the daily chart). A drop below 850 would suggest we're going to stay stuck in a larger consolidation pattern into late January before heading lower again (pink). Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 3:59:15 PM

QRTRLY's would be 511.01, 707.00, Piv= 937.02, 1,133.01, 1,363.01

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 3:57:27 PM

ASSUMING SPX close of 903 ... Jan MONTHLY Pivot Levels 776.02, 839.51, Piv= 879.18, 942.67, 982.34.

Keene Little : 12/31/2008 3:54:11 PM

After the little throw-over above the small rising wedge SPX has now broken below the wedge so that confirms the high is in. Short against today's high going into Friday is the recommended position (other than being flat which is a really good position) and then we'll see what kind of pullback develops next. I'm sure "they" will be holding the market up as best they can right into the close.

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 3:44:50 PM

USO $32.98 ... to its close ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 3:43:47 PM

QQQQ $29.95 +1.59% ... the more things change, the more they remain the same!

NDX 1,218.83 ... KNOW where you are. We'll get new QUARTERLY's tonight.

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 3:42:26 PM

Majors should go out at/near highs of the session. Kind'a thought that at 03:32:54 though.

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 3:41:48 PM

NASDAQ a/d 2,296/652

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 3:41:35 PM

NYSE a/d 2,641/458

Keene Little : 12/31/2008 3:40:53 PM

There's the little throw-over of the small rising wedge pattern for SPX so be careful of an immediate reversal. Obviously if it keeps rallying it would be bullish and it would raise the possibility for a rally on up to 918 on Friday before potentially running into trouble.

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 3:39:59 PM

Mike! Happy New Year!

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 3:39:03 PM

YM long target/exit alert! 8,790

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 3:38:41 PM

YM long raise stop alert! to 8,770.

YM 8787

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 3:37:13 PM

YM long raise stop alert! to even ... YM 8,770

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 3:34:03 PM

YM Long raise stop alert! ... to 8,740

YM 8,760

Keene Little : 12/31/2008 3:33:58 PM

NDX has confirmed the break below its 1:30 PM low. It will remain possible that we're only going to see a slightly larger pullback, which needs to stay above yesterday's high near 1203 in order to maintain a bullish price pattern and a new high on Friday. It will be the shape of the pullback (assuming we'll get one) that will provide some clues as to whether or not we've topped for now.

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 3:32:54 PM

YM long ... stop goes 8,730 ... target 8,790

Keene Little : 12/31/2008 3:28:43 PM

NQ (but not NDX) is giving up the fight and has broken its low at 1:30 PM so that's saying we may have seen the high. SPX could use one more minor new high to finish a small rising wedge pattern before tumbling back down on Friday. Updated SPX 10-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 3:27:28 PM

YM long alert! 8,753

Keene Little : 12/31/2008 3:20:01 PM

Bulls are struggling with SPX 907 and the new highs are again being met with bearish divergences. I prefer the short side here but in actuality trading during these light-volume holiday periods adds an element of risk not present if you wait until next week.

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 3:09:43 PM

VIX.X 39.06 ... "in the zone"

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 3:09:27 PM

Taker at $10.50

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 3:04:42 PM

SPX 906.50

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 3:04:32 PM

VIX-MJ $10.10 x $10.50

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 3:04:19 PM

VIX.X alert! 39.17

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 3:03:59 PM

NASDAQ a/d 2,095/828

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 3:03:45 PM

NYSE a/d 2,537/551

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 2:57:33 PM

The BIG guns at least ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 2:57:07 PM

The VOLUME instills in traders that these levels are IMPORTANT to market participants.

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 2:56:09 PM

USO 15-minute intervals with volume turned on. My MONTHLY Pivot levels/retracement. Cursor box set as USO trades the 12/19/08 Jan'09 crude oil futures termination. Link

Keene Little : 12/31/2008 2:54:20 PM

The reason I was saying USO would be bullish above $35 is because of the Fib projection for an A-B-C rally off the December 26 low--where the 2nd leg up equals 162% of the 1st leg up at $34.88. This afternoon's high is 34.87 so close enough (wink). If we see a relatively small pullback followed by another push higher it would be bullish otherwise it's so far just a 3-wave correction and another leg down looks very possible. USO 60-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 2:45:04 PM

USO high of $34.85 juuuuuuuuust a smidge above that overlapping M S1 and MONTHLY 19.1% too!

Keene Little : 12/31/2008 2:44:32 PM

It takes a break below the lows near 1:30 PM (SPX 898) to tell us a high is in and that would set up the potential for a selloff down to 860 next week (possibly lower). But the bears would first have to drive SPX back below its broken downtrend line from November 4th, near 892 by the end of the day. In the meantime the upside potential remains 918 if the bulls can power through 907.

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 2:43:48 PM

Goooood grrrravy! Look at that volume in the USO at your benchmark

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 2:41:00 PM

You don't know if that's a NAKED or a long liquidator. All you know is somebody thinks 50 - $10.10 = 39.90

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 2:38:49 PM

Some at the bid of $10.10

as VIX.X ticks 39.23.

SPX 905.20

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 2:37:23 PM

VIX and SPX 5-minute intervals with VIX-MJ Level II (not the adjustment) Link

Can be further "rewarding" to understand how things work.

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 2:28:35 PM

VIX-MJ now getting dollar-for-dollar

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 2:28:05 PM

SPX 904.19 ...

VIX.X 39.38

VIX-MJ $10.10 x $10.70

Keene Little : 12/31/2008 2:25:16 PM

Big bounce in oil today but I'm not sure it's bullish, yet. If USO gets above $35 then it will be more bullish. For the time being I think we've got a new low coming before it will be ready to rally. USO daily chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 2:22:35 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Keene Little : 12/31/2008 2:09:12 PM

Drawing in a parallel up-channel for the rally off Monday's low has the top of the channel near SPX 908--very close now. The wave count for the move up from Monday now counts as a completed 5-wave move so trail your stop up if long and get ready for a short entry if it fails around 908. 10-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 2:07:37 PM

FXE 139.65

Keene Little : 12/31/2008 2:05:54 PM

Happy New Year Jane. See you next year.

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 2:04:57 PM

Selling 1/2 of DXO long here at $2.71 bid

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 2:03:38 PM

USO alert! ... nearing your 12/19/08 benchmark termination ($33.06)

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 2:01:43 PM

Happy New Year Jane!

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 2:01:21 PM

RUT.X 60-minute intervals and the reverse h/s pattern I outlined a couple of weeks ago. Appears different than Jane's and probably has a more "conservative" pattern objective. Link

Jane Fox : 12/31/2008 2:00:45 PM

Well I am off to go to lunch with daughter and grandbaby. I would like to wish you all a Happy New Year.

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 1:38:56 PM

USO $31.77 +5.26% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 1:38:39 PM

WKLY R1 here at $2.54. DAILY R2 $2.49.

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 1:38:05 PM

DXO $2.54 +9.01% ... bringing a bullish stop up to $2.47.

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 1:34:10 PM

VIX and SPX 5-minute intervals Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 1:21:33 PM

VIX and SPX 5-minute intervals Link

And when today was "the day" Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 1:19:06 PM

VIX-MJ $9.00 x $9.20

SPX 899.69

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 1:15:17 PM

VIX MJ $8.90 x $9.30

SPX 899.92 from near-kiss of WKLY R2.

Keene Little : 12/31/2008 1:04:29 PM

Trading volume has been running much lighter than normal since Monday the 22nd and today's volume is running slightly less than yesterday's which was less than last Monday's and Tuesday's. The point is we can't assume that any bullishness we've seen in this light-trading environment will have any bearing on what happens next week. If this week is merely an effort to paint the tape into month end then fund managers may not be willing to hold onto some of their purchases made in these last two weeks.

Jane Fox : 12/31/2008 1:01:16 PM

I'm thinking Arby's huh no that's not what I am thinking. I am thinking the RUT Russell 2000 will be the next major index to break its neckline, which makes sense since the S&P smallcap index is breaking its neckline as I type.

Jane Fox : 12/31/2008 12:58:18 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Microsoft Corp. has warned customers using the 30-gigabyte version of its Zune media player that they "may experience issues when booting their Zune hardware."

All the more reason to stick with an iPod.

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 12:56:00 PM

USO 31.32 +3.70% ... lurches from WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 12:52:28 PM

SPX 902.04

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 12:51:57 PM

taker at $8.90

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 12:51:18 PM

Nothing wrong with blowing out VIX-MJ at the open of $8.00, but your savage nature, when you feel, based on observation, you've got them by the throat, you're out for some blood.

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 12:49:35 PM

You are a trader, you take no prisoners. You know when to cut and run. Inflict as much pain as you can, but know where the exits are.

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 12:48:34 PM

VIX and SPX 5-minute intervals Link

Jane Fox : 12/31/2008 12:34:59 PM

Internals remain quite bullish. Notice how the AD ratio is sort of flat lining but doing it at 2.69. This is bullish. If the AD ratio climbs that is just gravy to the bullish picture. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 12:34:30 PM

Not just thinking LONG VIX-MJ, but what about the NAKED?

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 12:34:06 PM

SPY $90.00 +1.15% ...

VIX 39.73

VIX-MJ $8.50 x $8.90 with 463 traded.

Jane Fox : 12/31/2008 12:31:14 PM

All the major indexes are building a reverse head and shoulder but it looks like the SML - S&P smallcap 600 will be the first to break its neckline. To calculate the projected rally if the neckline breaks you take difference between the bottom of the head, 201.31 and the neckline, 265.28 and add that difference to the neckline. This is 63.97 + 265.28 = 329.25. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 12:18:44 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Keene Little : 12/31/2008 12:13:13 PM

The updated SPX 60-min chart shows the upside potential to 918 to meet a Fib projection and the downtrend line from October 14th (if it can first get through 906). I continue to see the probability that price will consolidate into early January before a potetential setup to rally into opex: Link

The daily chart shows the rally could be big (up to 1050, shown in dark red) or just back up to the current level (pink) before heading for new lows into February: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 12:07:12 PM

UGA $17.97 +0.44% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 12:06:31 PM

USO $30.20 (unch) ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 12:05:39 PM

UNG $23.07 -4.78% ... on headline inventory numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 12:00:56 PM

Should the VIX.X close here at 39.81 ... Jan MONTHLY Pivot Levels would be ... 20.35, 30.08, Piv= 49.34, 59.07, 78.33

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 11:53:15 AM

IF long 100 contracts, should probably have taken at least 75 off the table.

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 11:51:47 AM

Easy, easy on comeback to 39.83

Keene Little : 12/31/2008 11:50:36 AM

Bonds are starting to sell off stronger today so it's looking like traders are starting to take their profits off the table as we head into the new year. There's an expectations that the new year will see selling in the bonds. They could be bullish for equities but since November we've been seeing bonds and equities more in synch than not and therefore I would not make the assumption that selling in bonds will see money rotate in stocks.

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 11:49:59 AM

IF it trades 39.19-38.90, what's the potential REWARD? IF it trades 39.85, 40.74, 41.12, 42.18.

Where's my SPX/SPY at?

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 11:47:28 AM

VIX and VIX-MJ Level II on a 5-minute interval Link

RISK/REWARD on a 5-minute basis.

Keene Little : 12/31/2008 11:31:18 AM

I've got the song "Stayin' Alive" by the Bee Gees in my head. The bulls are still holding on--there's very little interest in selling today. Two equal legs up from Monday's low is near SPX 906 so we'll see if they can stay alive up to at least that level.

Jane Fox : 12/31/2008 11:17:51 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Securities and Exchange Commission Inspector General David Kotz is scheduled to testify before lawmakers on Monday about the alleged $50 billion investment fraud carried out by Bernard Madoff, according to a statement Wednesday by a House capital markets subcommittee. The subcommittee chairman, Rep. Paul Kanjorski, D-Pa., said the hearing will help lawmakers to understand whether the SEC had adequate resources and how the alleged scheme evaded detection for so long. On Dec. 17, SEC chairman Christopher Cox said he ordered Kotz to investigate past allegations against Madoff and why they were found not to be credible. In addition, the probe will look at all staff contacts and relationships with the Madoff family and firm, and whether they had any impact on decisions by SEC staff.

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 11:16:42 AM

Dryships (DRYS) $11.19 +16.42% ... back again among NASDAQ most actives. (see earlier this month)

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 11:08:19 AM

SPX 898.02 +0.82% ... DAILY R2 904.54 and WKLY R2 is "the zone"

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 11:07:41 AM

VIX.X 29.90 -4.15% ... sitting on DAILY S2 ... VIX-MJ $8.50 x $8.70

Keene Little : 12/31/2008 11:04:37 AM

The push to a marginal new high here is being met with bearish divergences on the 5 and 10-min charts so the buying momentum is waning.

Keene Little : 12/31/2008 11:01:53 AM

The bulls would love to see this market held up into today's close so they can at least close out the year on a little bit of a positive note. It might not be pretty for them next week but we've still got Friday which could be a positive day if SPX holds above 892 by the end of today. Upside potential in that case is the downtrend line from October 14th and November 4th near 919 by the end of today.

Jane Fox : 12/31/2008 11:01:09 AM

Look at how much the VIX has fallen in a little over a month. Nov 20th it hit a high of 81.48 and today it is 39.94. All time high was Oct 24th at 89.53. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 10:39:19 AM

UGA $17.71 -1.00% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 10:39:01 AM

USO $29.50 -2.28% ... on headline inventory

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 10:37:25 AM

VIX and VIX-MJ Level II 60-minute interval chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 10:19:19 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 12/31/2008 10:18:20 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Freddie Mac said Wednesday that its benchmark long-term mortgage rate average fell for the ninth consecutive week and to a new low since it started tracking the rate in 1971. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average fell to 5.1% with an average 0.7 point for the week ending Dec. 31, down from last week when it averaged 5.14%. Last year, the average was 6.07%. "Since the end of October of this year, these rates have declined by about 1-1/3 percentage points, or payment savings of approximately $173 a month for a $200,000 loan," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac chief economist, in a statement. "As a result, the number of refinance applications for conventional mortgages jumped over 500% between the weeks ending on Oct. 31st and Dec. 26th."

Keene Little : 12/31/2008 10:14:59 AM

If the bulls can drive the market a little higher and then find support at the broken downtrend line from November 4th on a pullback (now near 894) that would clearly be bullish. Right now it's only in throw-over territory above the downtrend line, especially with the weak volume.

Jane Fox : 12/31/2008 10:09:11 AM

VIX is supporting the bullishness today. Link

Jane Fox : 12/31/2008 10:08:05 AM

HMMM I wonder if AIG will take American Express.

Jane Fox : 12/31/2008 10:07:16 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- American International Group the insurer bailed out by the U.S. government, is prepared to ask the Federal Reserve to relax the rules on how bidders pay for assets in its $60 billion disposals program, the Financial Times reported Wednesday. AIG wants to boost competition for the assets by allowing bidders to pay using a greater proportion of shares, or through installments, the newspaper reported, citing people close to the situation. Under the current plan, AIG can only sell assets to bidders paying at least 90% of the price in cash, the report added.

Jane Fox : 12/31/2008 10:05:55 AM

All internals are strong except the TRIN over 1.00. I see it coming down now as I type. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 10:03:48 AM

Perhaps, sit the offer, or just under at $8.40????

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 10:03:26 AM

If looking to close out the VIX-MJ today, THEN maybe not want to see it get back above DAILY S1. Let it go to DAILY S2, or MONTHLY S1 and correlative 150-day SMA.

Jane Fox : 12/31/2008 10:03:25 AM

Here is your daily chart of the DOW, still building a reverse head and shoulder. If it breaks the neckline (blue trendline) the projected target is 10603. Now that would be a nice trade. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 10:01:08 AM

VIX-MJ is $7.90 x $8.50

Jeff Bailey : 12/31/2008 9:59:57 AM

VIX.X 40.60 -2.47% ... DAILY S1 40.74, S2 39.85

Jane Fox : 12/31/2008 9:59:52 AM

Crude is down again today but here I go out on a limb (again), I don't think it will break yearly lows before it undertakes a substantial rally. Link

Jane Fox : 12/31/2008 9:56:04 AM

Foreign markets have not fared any better:

German DAX 40%
FTSE 100 31%
Nikkei 225 42%
China Shanghai composite 65%

Jane Fox : 12/31/2008 9:57:18 AM

So far this year the market has fallen an almost unprecedented percentage:

DOW down 35%
S&P 500 down 39%
Nasdaq down 42%
Financials down 55%
Oil Index down 38%

Jane Fox : 12/31/2008 9:50:59 AM

Here are your overnight charts - heh better late than never - and as you can see it was a very calm overnight session. Link

Jane Fox : 12/31/2008 9:47:35 AM

The only report I see on the docket this morning is the Crude Oil Inventories report and that is not a stock market mover. The Natural Gas Inventories will also be released today at 12:00, is is usually released on Thursday.

Keene Little : 12/31/2008 9:47:34 AM

SPX rings the bell at 895. Now let's see if there's more to this rally or not. Be careful of a "stop hunt" just above 895 and then failure.

Jane Fox : 12/31/2008 9:44:37 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- First-time applications for state unemployment benefits fell 94,000 to a seasonally adjusted 492,000 in the week ended Dec. 27, the Labor Department said Wednesday, citing seasonal volatility in explaining the surprising drop.

Despite the decline, the level of claims stand 45% higher than this time last year. The four-week average of new claims fell 5,750 to 552,250, data showed.

Meanwhile, the number of people collecting benefits in the week ended Dec. 20 rose 140,000 to hit 4.51 million -- the loftiest level since December 1982. The four-week average of continuing claims also increased, growing by 103,750 to 4.42 million -- also the highest since December 1982.

Keene Little : 12/31/2008 9:28:21 AM

The overnight high for ES was 894.25 but currently trading at 889. If we get a retest of the overnight high we could see a test of the 895 level for SPX.

Keene Little : 12/30/2008 10:13:01 PM

Wednesday's pivot table: Link

SPX finished about 5 points shy of potential resistance at 895 where some Fibs and the downtrend line from November 4th line up. It would obviously be very bullish if the market gaps over that resistance level otherwise I would expect at least a pullback from that level, shown in dark red on the 60-min chart: Link

The larger pattern remains a question but unless 895 is convincingly broken (in which case watch for a move up to the 920 area) I'm thinking we should see a pullback before setting up another rally leg. A break below 857 is needed to say we've got something more bearish going on. The price pattern has been very choppy and that could continue for the rest of the week. Keep in mind that we're still seeing excessive bullishness in the options market--ISEE finished at 180 today after hitting 206 on Monday. Anything over 160 has been typically followed by at least a short-term peak in the stock market.

The NDX 60-min chart has essentially the same setup: Link . A break above 1210 and then 1220 would be bullish and I think it would be pointing to a rally into January opex (upside target of 1390). Otherwise I think we'll get another pullback before setting up the bigger rally leg (unless it breaks below 1158 next week. The daily chart keeps these moves in perspective (and note that a new low early next year is the expected outcome in either scenario): Link

OI Technical Staff : 12/30/2008 9:59:59 PM

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