Option Investor
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 8:11:05 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made Link

Quick Daily Review:

#1: MM 09:59:50 and 10:04:48 ... shorted 1/2 position in UGA at $21.52. Stop is $23.05, target is $17.75 (see comment field).

#2: MM 10:55:25 ... Buy 1/4 position (worked through how for Hypothetical $10,000.00 account) as PBR was trading $22.60 (see basis benchmark). POSITION is 1 put @ $4.00. Target is $17.50 in underlying (IF PBR TRADES $17.50 on or before April expiration, PUT>= $5.00, but MAY DEPEND ON VOLATILITY/PREMIUM measures. So it is IMPOSSIBLE to give you a TARGET on the OPTION, but SELL the option if/when PBR trades $17.50. Example: If PBR were to trade $17.50 tomorrow, PBR-PK should be trading MUCH more that $5.00.

#3: MM 10:57:03 ... After execution of PBR-PK, RAISED STOP on DUG to $26.29 as DUG trading $27.56. Later in day, DUG did trade $26.29.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 7:45:01 PM

YM 5-minute intervals (all sessions turned on) with tomorrow's (Friday's) DAILY Pivot retracement Link

Note how YM futures volume almost non-existant after the 04:00 tick (INDU closed) then a little for DIA to 04:15.

PRIMARY reason to calculate pivot levels based on REGULAR SESSION trading.

Remember! Futures were created to HEDGE RISK in cash markets. (09:30 AM to 04:00 PM)

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 7:26:27 PM

YM +44 at 8,206

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 7:25:22 PM

BAC $8.32 -18.43% ... $8.97 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 7:24:58 PM

Bank of America nears govt aid, Citigroup shares drop ... Reuters Story Link

BAC aid may come any moment ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 7:20:59 PM

Congress advances emergency economic aid plans ... Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 7:17:40 PM

Toyota Reduces North American Production ... Press Release Link

TM $63.92 +2.86% ... last tick $64.40

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 6:47:52 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 6:31:34 PM

NYSE most actives were ... C $3.83 -15.45%, BAC $8.32 -18.43%, WFC $20.60 -10.70%, GE $13.77 -2.40%, JPM $24.34 -6.05%

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 6:29:17 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 5:37:58 PM

Volume really picking up on the big board again ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 5:26:50 PM

YM 5-minute interval recap Link

Let's pick it up at about 11:10-15 AM and see if you can find some possible errors early. Note a morning POTENTIAL low found at 7,968 and subsequent bounce to the 11:00 hour finds Stochs rebounding for first time of the day to 80.00. That was a very tough bull entry and RISKING a bull entry from 8,025 to 7,967 (58 x $5) = $290 with no target to assess reward to may not be for some.

One observation may have been important after bulls did get stopped (below morning low), was that the NDX/QQQQ was the ONLY major NOT to trade below its morning low.

That kind'a stuff gets the A-team trader on the al_rt! Some RELATIVE STRENGTH in higher beta.

#1: I profiled long at #1 move above D S2 and conventional at the time 19.1%, but snugged up the stop 2-points too tight at 7,974. (-17)

Still, see XAL.X and RLX.X moving higher still, and "they gott'a bid the futures"

#2: Long again at 7,995 and figure if the A-team isn't on the field then the heck with it, but we can at least try another play to 8,048.

First Down! at #2 exit. (+53)

Somehow, the "A-team's" running back broke free of the pile and managed to claw out a very nice gain to DAILY Pivot (after a DAILY S2 !) and WKLY S2 "zone".

-17 + 53 = +36 x $5 = +$180

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 4:32:01 PM

US Airways Flight 1549 Initial Report ... Source: US Air Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 4:25:58 PM

Provident NY Bancorp (PBNY) $10.87 +3.32% ... Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 4:23:28 PM

INTC ... $13.29 ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 4:22:11 PM

Intel (INTC) ... Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 4:20:59 PM

Intel (INTC) $13.28 +1.52% ... $13.00 extended on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 4:19:35 PM

dj- Brazil Titans Index 16,821.66; Up 558.83, or +3.44%

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 4:17:18 PM

dj- via CNN ... Passenger: EVERYONE OFF PLANE SAFELY

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 4:16:40 PM

FoxNews ... FBI: No information that crash related to terrorism

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 4:14:42 PM

dj- Ireland Govt. Takes Control of Anglo Irish Bank

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 4:08:29 PM

Jeff CNBC may have been a flock of geese? Geesh I have heard CNBC called many things but not a flock of geese. :)

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 4:05:24 PM

Bullish % Latin America (BPLATIN) at last night's close Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 4:02:56 PM

YM 8,164 ... "in the zone"

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 4:02:18 PM

That reminds me ... I will be out of the office tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 4:02:13 PM

CNBC ... May have been flock of geese.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 4:00:03 PM

CNN- FAA: US Airways plane may have struck something. Bird

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 3:59:05 PM

dj- Platts Survey: December OPEC oil output fell to 30.74 M/B/D

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 3:56:15 PM

DAteline NPR A US Airways plane has crashed into the Hudson River, sending passengers fleeing for safety in the frigid waters. New York City firefighters are responding to the accident. It was not immediately clear if there were injuries.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 3:55:45 PM

US Airways (LCC) $7.32 -0.94% ... from $8.20 on headline.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 3:54:26 PM

XAL.X 23.73 +3.21% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 3:52:58 PM

Probably some jitters among traders headed into inauguration ... that kind of stuff won't help on intra-day basis.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 3:51:34 PM

YM 8,115 ... recovers from DAILY S1 (regular sessioin derived)

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 3:47:39 PM

YM 8,090

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 3:47:16 PM

CNBC ... US Airways flight crashes in Hudson River

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 3:41:39 PM

Global Bullish % Bell Curve at last night's close Link

I'm associating Latin America in part with "Brazil"

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 3:34:12 PM

NYSE a/d 940/2,085

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 3:33:50 PM

I almost profiled a short at 8,220, but waaaasn't overly eager with an "in the zone" target 8,176-8,157 and "psycho round" 8,200

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 3:32:05 PM

YM 8,142 ... decent place to try and get flat (if day trade short)

Keene Little : 1/15/2009 3:24:32 PM

The bounce back up to the top of the down-channel for SPX was faster than I thought but not a surprise given the fact that it's opex. The updated 60-min chart shows the likelihood for at least a pullback and then a break of the down-channel tomorrow (or we could get a break out and then pull back for a retest of the broken downtrend line). A drop back below 825 at this point would suggest a new low into tomorrow/Monday to a downside target near 800 before getting the bigger bounce that breaks out of the down-channel. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 3:21:20 PM

Good note Jane ... Don't forget! 1/22/09 is Nymex Feb'09 Crude Oil futures termination.

Let "the roll" begin.

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 3:19:19 PM

Here is the March contract that has almost twice the volume of the Feb cotnract. If I were still trading Crude I would be trading the March contract now. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 3:12:28 PM

CVX $70.59 +1.29% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 3:12:12 PM

XOM $75.96 +1.15% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 3:11:55 PM

PBR $24.18 +3.91% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 3:11:10 PM

YM 8,163 ... "in the zone" WKLY S2/D Piv

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 3:10:12 PM

Here is a chart of the March Crude contract where volume is 233K today compared to 151K volume in the February contract. March contract has not made a new yearly low and is trading well above its counterpart.

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 3:06:15 PM

Here is the chart of the SPX I posted yesterday when I called the yellow line the last bastion of support. The bulls now need to break above the blue trendline and the swing high at 943. If the SPX however, cannot break the blue trendline and makes a lower high it will start the formation of a bearish head and shoulders pattern.

I think the probability of the SPX breaking the swing high at 943 is greater than not based on the bullish MACD. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 3:05:49 PM

US Gasoline Fund (UGA) $22.40 +0.62% ... Holding 1/2 position short.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 3:05:00 PM

PBR $24.04 +3.26% ... Holding PBR-PK $3.20 x $3.40

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 3:01:46 PM

Swing trade stop alert! for DUG $26.29

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 2:57:44 PM

RLX.X 277.73 +4.94% ... WKLY S1 278.74

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 2:57:06 PM

XAL.X 24.82 +7.95% ... WKLY S1 at 24.65.

Keene Little : 1/15/2009 2:56:13 PM

Today's candlestick is a strong looking hammer at support (the early December lows). It should be good for a bounce of at least a couple of days. SPX 890 is a good upside target if we get a confirmed break of the down-channel.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 2:54:06 PM


Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 2:53:52 PM

Keep dragging that 100% "dynamic" up.

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 2:45:57 PM

This morning I predicted we would see a break of ON lows then turn around and revisit ON highs. That is exactly what the ES, TF and YM have done. Notice NQ though, it never did break ON lows and is now well above ON highs. 3 out 4 ain't bad. Link

Keene Little : 1/15/2009 2:40:31 PM

SPX has now made it up to the top of its down-channel and has completely retraced the descending wedge pattern (for the decline from yesterday afternoon). This is a good place for at least a pullback. If no pullback then we'll have our answer as to what's next.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 2:32:43 PM

02:23 Market Watch Link

Decent Airline and Retail lead rally Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 2:23:09 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/15/2009 2:14:48 PM

I'd say we've got ourselves a nice reversal. The top of the down-channel for SPX, depending on how it's drawn and on which time frame I'm looking at, is currently near 847. Obviously a break above the channel would be bullish and would say the leg down from last week is finished. Until then the down-channel says the current bounce is only relieving a bit of the oversold condition before heading lower again.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 2:04:42 PM

Dow Components Link @ 01:59 PM ET

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 2:01:33 PM

That's down:up just to be clear

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 2:00:54 PM

Dow Breadth ... 22:8

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 2:00:22 PM

NYSE a/d 575/2,448

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 1:58:44 PM

YM 8,078

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 1:55:22 PM

Internals are improving a bit but still quite bearish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 1:53:34 PM

Now ... YM traders ... at least begin to look at your trade blotter from YESTERDAY @ 02:30-40 PM ET.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 1:51:57 PM

YM 10-minute interval chart Link (per 01:33:45)

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 1:51:03 PM

Well I guess the previous yearly low was really the previous previous year yearly low.

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 1:50:17 PM

Crude is just spitting in the bull's face. It has undercut the yearly lows with an intraday low of 33.20. Previous yearly low was 35.13. Link

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 1:47:41 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- House Democrats, with the blessing of President-elect Barack Obama, are preparing a massive $825 billion economic stimulus bill loaded with federal spending and tax cuts, a more expensive package than initially estimated that is likely to face Republican criticism.

The bill contains $550 billion in federal spending and $275 billion in tax cuts, but the numbers are subject to change.

Democrats are seeking to spend $90 billion on highway, transit and other public-works projects, which they say will spur job creation.

The bill also contains $102 billion aimed at helping workers find new jobs and retaining employer-provided healthcare.

It also preserves a $500-per-worker and $1,000 per working couple tax credit, a key priority of the incoming Obama administration.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 1:45:25 PM

YM long target alert! 8,048

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 1:44:39 PM

This is a YM day trader account management move. Lose 17 on #1, inch stop to +17 on #2.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 1:43:11 PM

YM long raise top alert! ... to 8,012.

YM 8,026

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 1:40:28 PM

IBM $82.61 -0.69% ...

Keene Little : 1/15/2009 1:37:57 PM

It's been a nice recovery for the techs, which did not make a new low mid day. The move down counts well for a completion so long is the place to be but be careful of whipsaw and chop. Assuming the bounce continues into the close I'm hoping the shape of it will provide some clues as to how much of a bounce we can expect.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 1:37:03 PM

RLX +2.00% ... thus some HD and WMT attention.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 1:36:43 PM

SMH $16.51 +0.24% ... inches green.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 1:36:16 PM

WMT $50.74 -1.59% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 1:36:00 PM

HD $22.52 +2.78% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 1:35:49 PM

Dow breadth negative at 29:1

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 1:35:28 PM

NYSE a/d 418/2,612

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 1:35:06 PM

YM long raise stop alert! to even.

YM 8,015

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 1:33:45 PM

What a YM bull from 7,995 wants now is for the 10-minute to keep going to 80. And "hopefully" your target.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 1:33:08 PM

YM 8,004

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 1:32:57 PM

5-minute are at 80. 10-minute are at 51.58

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 1:32:32 PM

YM traders ... "click" from 5-minute to 10-minute real quick. Look at Stochs there.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 1:26:08 PM

YM long ... stop goes 7,972. Target 8,048

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 1:25:18 PM

YM long alert! 7,995

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 1:24:03 PM

XAL.X +2.43% ...

RLX X +1.21%

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 1:22:35 PM

Thinking on my long on move back above DAILY S2 was that inability so far of NDX/QQQQ/NQ to make a new regular session low, might have some short covering leveraging YM bullish on move back above.

Give ~40 point on entry risk, but once it got to 8,000, then quickly raise up to just under DAILY S2 (with thought bulls "should" leverage) and they shouldn't come back below.

For me, I don't like to take more than 40-points (40 x $5 = $200) heat in a YM day trade.

Let alone .... 100.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 1:17:21 PM

"best" was 8,000.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 1:16:57 PM

YM long stop alert! ... 7,974

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 1:12:15 PM

YM long raise stop alert! ... to 7,974.

YM 7,995

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 1:08:37 PM

YM 5-minute intervals Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 1:05:31 PM

YM long ... stop goes 7,963. Target 8,048

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 1:04:50 PM

YM Long alert! 7,991

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 12:59:49 PM

YM traders "drag down" their 0% now to new session low. 7,946.

Note the overlapping resistance at 19.1% and DAILY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 12:58:32 PM

As to how INSTITUTIONAL computers are trading. And ... some of us HUMANS too.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 12:57:34 PM

See the "tie" today (due to yesterday's gap) with YM and DIA (if using regular session derived) daily pivot level? This is SO key for day traders.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 12:56:40 PM

YM 7,982

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 12:56:29 PM

DIA $80.34 -2.11% ... DAILY S2 (regular session derived) $80.45

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 12:53:41 PM

AAPL $81.71 -4.25% ...

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 12:53:28 PM

The DOW traded under 8000 today, low 7995.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 12:53:19 PM

CSCO $15.28 -2.92% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 12:52:59 PM

MSFT $18.74 -1.83% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 12:52:44 PM

INTC $16.28 -1.15% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 12:52:17 PM

DDX.X 51.78 -3.34% ...

Keene Little : 1/15/2009 12:51:59 PM

SPX is still flirting with the bottom of its parallel down-channel and is below it again but with the bullish divergence on the 10-min chart and the potential descending wedge pattern for price action since yesterday it's looking at this point like SPX should find support above 810 and then rally this afternoon. If the descending wedge pattern is correct we should see a fairly quick rally back up to 850 tomorrow. But a break below the wedge (below 810) would clearly be bearish. SPX 10-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 12:50:26 PM

NDX 1,147 -1.41% ... still holding above session low of 1,141.87

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 12:48:03 PM

Legging out of partial in SCO $37.50 in personal account.

USO $29.08 -6.88% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 12:45:36 PM

SPX 817.80 ... new session low.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 12:45:11 PM

INDU 7,997 ... new session low.

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 12:43:57 PM

Here are your overnight charts and as you can see NQ has still not broken its ON or its previous day lows. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 12:42:13 PM

RUT.X 440.28 -2.84% ... challenges session low.

Keene Little : 1/15/2009 12:41:44 PM

DOW is about to tag 8000.

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 12:42:03 PM

The CPI comes out tomorrow and it is expected to show the "d" word has arrived, that's deflation folks. If the CPI falls in December by 0.8%, the expectation, then that means prices have fallen 0.2% year over year and that is deflation. And the bad news does not end there, the gap between the 5-year note and the 5-year TIPS is a negative -0.33% suggesting consumer prices will fall another 0.33% on average over the next 5-years

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 12:39:38 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Please Note: 10:00 PRICE and BASIS POINT changes should now be correct.

Keene Little : 1/15/2009 12:31:42 PM

The way SPX is now chopping its way lower from the bounce high means it's either getting ready to let go and rip to the downside or else it's an ending pattern. The bullish divergences are hinting that it's an ending pattern and should be setting up a rally. But don't let it go against you if long since it could drop another 20 points in a heartbeat.

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 12:15:25 PM

Bulls have gone to the pasture in the back 40 and there is absolutely no sign of them. I'm am becoming less sure they will ever show up today. Link

Keene Little : 1/15/2009 12:13:00 PM

Two equal legs down for the pullback from the bounce high is essentially at this morning's low so I'm still watching to see if we get a successful retest of the low or not.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 12:04:11 PM

YM DAILY S2 (regular session derived) is 7,982.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 12:03:25 PM

One thing I want to point out regarding INDU and pivot levels.

See yesterday's first 5-minute bar. It looks like it opened from Tuesday's close and actually TRADED down.

In REALITY (when you saw it) the INDU (dia and YM) never really traded like that. It GAPPED down.

So, for DAILY Pivot LEVELS (QCharts tabulated will use that first 5-minute high from yesterday with INDU, which I deem "flawed")

Point being, when you see a GAP (up, or down) day, for INDU and SPX, you'll need to LOOK at the YM/DIA, or ES/SPY, and use their actual REGULAR SESSION inflections for calculating the DAILY pivot levels.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 11:55:11 AM

INDU 5-minute interval day trader's chart Link

Keene Little : 1/15/2009 11:39:46 AM

The updated SPX 60-min chart shows my expectation for a bounce and if it gets going today I'll then be watching its form to get some clues as to whether it's going to be a relatively shallow bounce (pink) or the start of something stronger (dark red). SPX 60-min chart: Link

Keene Little : 1/15/2009 11:36:11 AM

I think there's a good chance we'll see a drop back down to retest this morning's low and shake out any weak longs. A successful retest should launch a stronger leg up. But a significant break of the low could usher in another wave of selling. If on the other hand the market suddenly spurts higher from here then the pattern of the bounce will turn more bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 11:21:56 AM

Fair Value for the NASDAQ-100 today is -0.46

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 11:21:17 AM

Fair Value for the S&P 500 today is -3.77

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 11:20:47 AM

Fair Value for the Dow Industrials today is -48.43

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 11:19:32 AM

INDU 8,080

YM 8,027

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 11:18:19 AM

INDU 8,085

SPX 827.18

NDX.X 1,150

RUT.X 445.06

Keene Little : 1/15/2009 11:13:04 AM

At this point this morning's low makes a good stop level for a long play.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 11:12:34 AM

House to seek $825 billion in economic stimulus ... Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 11:09:00 AM

Obama energy goal hard to meet: energy secretary ... Reuters Story Link

Keene Little : 1/15/2009 11:05:03 AM

The early December lows for the DOW were 8118-8143 so the bulls would certainly like to see that level held on a closing basis today. If they can get at least some kind of bounce going today that should not be a problem. If the current small bounce off the low turns back down for new lows I think there's a good chance we'll see the DOW break back below 8000 for the day.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 11:01:51 AM

Option premiums starting to rise again, so want to stay IN/AT the money.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 11:01:16 AM

VIX.X 54.24

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 11:01:02 AM

PBR-PK ... no stop for now. Targeting $17.50 in the underlying.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 10:59:34 AM

Disclosure: I currently hold bearish position in PBR prior to profile.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 10:57:03 AM

Swing trade LOWER stop alert! ... for the ProShares UltraShort Oil&Gas (DUG) $27.56 +3.57% ... to even ($26.29).

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 10:55:25 AM

Swing trade PUT option alert! ... Buy 1/4 position in the Petroleum Brasileiro PBR April $22.50 Puts (PBR-PK) at the offer of $4.00.

Take $10,000 x 0.25 = $2,500

Then take PRICE of underlying PBR (currently $22.60) and $2,500 / $22.60 = 110 shares

1 option = 100 shares.

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 10:51:55 AM

I see TF has now fallen below is ON low but so far NQ has not. So much for the effect AAPL has on the market.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 10:42:13 AM

BIX daily interval chart (update) Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 10:38:31 AM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 100.20 -9.94% ... Notable new 52-week low (alert!)

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 10:37:25 AM

Even though the Russell 2000 futures (TF) are on a 20 minute delay you pretty well know where are heading because they trade very closely to NQ. With that in mind I see both NQ and TF have not broken their respective ON lows so either these two will hold up ES and YM or succumb to the sellers as well. Link

Keene Little : 1/15/2009 10:37:22 AM

SPX has dropped out the bottom of its parallel down-channel and that's obviously bearish as it indicates the selling is accelerating. So far it's just a throw-under which is why it needs to reverse back up now and get back above 825 and start some kind of bounce. Opex can exacerbate a move and therefore this morning's sharp decline may be nothing more than that. The wave pattern for the decline can be considered complete now so be careful if you're in a short position--drag your stop down closer.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 10:36:30 AM

EIA Weekly Nat. Gas Storage (Table) Link ... Draw of 94 Bcf.

Forecast among industry was -105 Bcf.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 10:35:12 AM

DUG $27.68 +4.02% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 10:34:56 AM

XNG.X 350.40 -3.23% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 10:34:32 AM

UNG $19.90 -3.16% ... on headline numbers.

Keene Little : 1/15/2009 10:32:53 AM

If the market doesn't reverse back up from here I'd say there's a real good chance we're going to see SPX below 800 before the end of the day.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 10:32:49 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 10:29:46 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Global oil consumption is expected to fall 200,000 barrels a day this year, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its monthly report, released Thursday. Consumption declined 100,000 last year, the first year of negative growth since 1983. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, February crude fell 4.5% at $35.61 a barrel in early trading.

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 10:28:20 AM

Can you say refinance!!!

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 10:28:02 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Freddie Mac (FRE) said Thursday the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell for the 11th week in a row to 4.96%, with an average 0.7 point for the week ending Jan. 15. In the previous week, the average was 5.01%, while the year-ago average was 5.69%. The continuing decline in 30-year fixed rate mortgages was partly attributed to the slowing economy and to government actions to help the housing sector, according to Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac chief economist. "So far, both the U.S. Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve have added over $100 billion in liquidity to the mortgage market since September 2008, which put downward pressure on interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages. The Federal Reserve may add up to an additional $570 billion more this year, based on its Nov. 25, 2008, announcement, to further shore up mortgage lending and keep rates low," Nothaft said in a statement.

Keene Little : 1/15/2009 10:23:07 AM

Sellers should be running on empty soon. But so far there's not much interest in buying.

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 10:22:29 AM

Very rarely do you see the AD volume trajectory like this two days in a row which makes me believe it will not stay this way all day. I think we will see the bulls make a stand at some point but until then don't try to be brave and fade this market. Link

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 10:19:49 AM

Here are your VIX/ES charts. They are in sync and telling you the bulls are nowhere to be found. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 10:17:56 AM

VIX.X 52.43 +6.53% ... alert!

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 10:17:46 AM

Bank of America getting trashed today, down 22% as I type. Link

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 10:14:29 AM

The DOW futures traded below its ON low then retreated back to test the zone between the ON and previous day lows but found too much resistance there and is falling again. Ditto for the S&P futures. Both are now making new intraday lows.

NQ has not even broken its ON low so the stronger market.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 10:13:18 AM

US mulls fresh aid package for Bank of America ... Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 10:11:39 AM

Zions Bancorp (ZION) $19.39 -7.62% ... trades its 07/16/08 52-week low CLOSE. (alert!)

Keene Little : 1/15/2009 10:06:09 AM

After a little bounce we should get another new low but then watch for a bottom to get put in for the day. We should start either a larger rally or at least a sideways/up correction today.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 10:04:48 AM

Typo correction and entry alert! should be at the bid of $21.52.

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 10:03:56 AM

The TRIN is much more reasonable today but still bearish at 1.49.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 9:59:50 AM

Swing trade short alert! ... for 1/2 position in the U.S. Gasoline Fund (UGA) at the bid of $21.42.

Stop goes $23.05. Target $17.75.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 9:52:36 AM

Bank of America (BAC) $8.34 -18.23% ... Notable 52-weeker (alert!)

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 9:51:21 AM

BIX.X 105.38 -5.12% ...
BKX.X 33.88 -5.58%

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 9:51:10 AM

NQ is falling but still quite a ways off its ON low. S&P and DOW are below those lows now.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 9:50:42 AM

USO $30.25 -3.13% ...
OIX 554.09 -0.96%
OIH 71.69 -1.17%
XNG.X 358.36 -1.03%
UNG $20.26 -1.41%

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 9:50:25 AM

S&P ON low is 828.25 and intraday low so far is 828.75.

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 9:49:27 AM

DOW breaks its ON lows but S&P is stopped right at its ON low.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 9:48:59 AM

Energy, Financials weigh on futures

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 9:48:46 AM

The DOW reaches its ON lows first but right on its heels is the S$P (I am watching the futures and not the cash market so I can see the ON lows and highs).

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 9:47:56 AM

XLF $10.06 -3.82% ... moves into 11/21 to 11/24 gap.

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 9:46:38 AM

It didn't take long for the AD line to fall below -1000 telling us the bears are once again in control.

Jeff Bailey : 1/15/2009 9:46:43 AM

JP Morgan (JPM) $26.55 +2.47% ... Earnings Press Release Link

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 9:45:26 AM

I certainly hope today's intraday range will not be within the overnight range again today.

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 9:37:43 AM

Like I thought the AD line is neutral at -284.

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 9:35:34 AM

Keene I am baffled by the Steve Jobs news as well. I read headlines this morning, "Futures were down because of Apple." Why in the world would Steve Jobs stepping aside have an effect on the futures, on Apple yes (even that is a stretch since he does not have a lot of controlling power anymore) but the futures?

Keene Little : 1/15/2009 9:27:16 AM

Overnight futures were whippy and fighting to open near the flat line as we approach the open (except NQ which is weaker as a result of the Steve Jobs announcement, which is a bit baffling since I didn't think Jobs controlled all the other tech companies). Bonds took a dive since rallying last night to a high near 6:00 AM so that could inject some money into the stock market after the open (but first watch for a possible test of the overnight lows in the futures).

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 9:23:18 AM

SPX closed below its right shoulder so I took the reverse head and shoulders pattern off the chart. A bullish pattern that is obliterated like that shows the strength of the bears, although we all knew the bears are ruling, I truly did think there would be enough force in an oversold rally to get to the projected reverse head and shoulder target. Oh well back to the drawing board. Link

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 9:16:51 AM

Crude made a low of 36.13 overnight which looks like it is making a double bottom. MACD is still telling me Crude will rally before it starts its next sustainable move downward, however, that does not rule out a move below yearly lows before it does rally. What the bullish MACD divergence does rule out though is a try at shorting this market. . Link

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 9:11:41 AM

The overnight charts show a consolidation and sideways move at previous day lows. Interestingly the NDX futures (NQ) did not participate in the 12:30 and 3:50ET little rallies. Now that is odd. I even refreshed my charts to make sure the NQ chart was not fibbing to me.

Intraday, once the cash markets open, I suspect the markets will break ON lows quickly and then regroup and rally to at least ON highs but since I don?t have a crystal ball I will watch the internals and let them tell me what the market is really thinking. Link

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 9:04:48 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The European Central Bank delivered another rate cut Thursday, dropping its benchmark lending rate by half of a percentage point to 2% as policy makers deal with the first recession since the launch of the euro a decade ago.

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 9:01:57 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Manufacturing activity in the New York area contracted for the ninth straight month in January, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Thursday. The bank's Empire State Manufacturing index rose slightly to negative 22.2 in January from a record low reading of negative 27.9 in December. The overall picture of the factory sector in the region did not change much. The new orders, shipments, and unfilled orders indexes also remained near their recent record lows. The indexes for prices paid and prices received were negative for a second consecutive month, and employment indexes remained deep in negative territory for a third consecutive month. The Empire State index is of interest to investors and economists primarily because it's seen as an early indicator of what the Institute for Supply Management's January national factory survey due out in two weeks may show. The ISM index was quite weak in December, falling to 32.4 in December from 36.2 in November

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 9:00:43 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- J.P. Morgan Chase said Thursday that its fourth-quarter profit fell 77.6% amid continuing write-downs and a deteriorating consumer environment.

A $1.1 billion benefit from merger-related items helped the firm post a $702 million, or 7 cents a share, fourth-quarter profit, compared to a profit of $3 billion, or 86 cents a share, in the year-ago period.

Chase (JPM) total net revenue dipped to $17.23 billion in the quarter, from $17.38 billion last year. Analysts at ThomsonReuters had expected the company to break even on revenue of $18.83 billion.

Analysts at FactSet had expected the company to report a 7 cents a share profit.

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 8:55:42 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Inflation at the wholesale level fell in December for the fifth consecutive month, the Labor Department said Thursday. The producer price index declined 1.9%, driven by a 9.3% drop in energy prices, and a 1.5% decline for foods. In November, the PPI fell 2.2%. The December core PPI, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.2%, compared with a 0.1% gain in November. Economists polled by MarketWatch were expecting the December PPI to fall 2.2%, and for the core to show no growth.

Jane Fox : 1/15/2009 8:55:16 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- First-time applications for state unemployment benefits rose 54,000 to a seasonally adjusted 524,000 in the week ending Jan. 10, the Labor Department said Thursday. The four-week average of new claims fell 8,000 to 518,500 - a level that is 55% higher than the average during the same period in the prior year. Meanwhile, the number of people collecting benefits in the week ending Jan. 3 fell 115,000 to 4.5 million, a level that is 64% higher than the prior year. The four-week average of continuing claims rose 27,500 to 4.5 million - the highest level since December 1982. The insured unemployment rate remained at 3.4%.

Keene Little : 1/14/2009 11:31:24 PM

Thursday's pivot table: Link

With the break below SPX 857 we've got good confirmation that the November-January rally completed last week. I seriously doubt we'll see the market move higher than that before making a new low below November's. In fact, as shown on the SPX 60-min chart, I think SPX has to make it back above at least its broken uptrend line from December 1st, currently near 885, before I'd even consider the market as potentially bullish again. SPX 60-min chart: Link

The price pattern at the end of the day looked like it was going to head lower before the next bounce, which will either big a big one up to about 890 (dark red) or a smaller sideways/up correction before heading lower again into Friday (pink). For the time being the parallel down-channel is still your friend as a trading tool--trade with it and then abandon the short side (for a couple of days) when it breaks.

We are either in the early stages of the next leg down to a new low (below last November's) or we're going to see only a retest of the November low (with a higher low) before bouncing back up to a lower high in February to potentially finish the large sideways triangle pattern that I've been showing on the daily chart (dark red): Link

I'm leaning towards the triangle consolidation continuing because of the cycle studies pointing to a low in March but I'll let price tell me what it's doing. I think also from a psychological perspective it would be classic to see a successful retest of the November low to get everyone all excited to then have their hopes dashed with a new low in March. That would dishearten enough people to stop looking for a low and then I'd be more comfortable stepping in with a big long position for my account. For now we just need to know we've got lower prices ahead even if we get a bigger bounce first into early next week.

Jeff Bailey : 1/14/2009 10:38:14 PM

RUT.X 30-minute interval when looking at XLF in combination Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/14/2009 10:25:01 PM

XLF 30-minute intervals ... quick recap and look ahead with JPM set to announce earnings. Link

Quick review of "what went wrong" (assess, try and correct) so it doesn't get REPEATED time and time again.

Now, if XLF closed $11.97 UWM bulls would be saying "I told you so!"

It didn't, so we cut it, move on.

OI Technical Staff : 1/14/2009 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Market Monitor Archives