Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 5:35:19 PM

QQQQ $29.47 ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 5:34:41 PM

Conference call should be underway ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 5:34:15 PM

That was a late print of 100 shares at $80.01

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 5:32:31 PM

AAPL $89.86 ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 5:31:24 PM

At $85 ... PUT OI= $39.17M, CALL OI= $13.9M

At $90 ... PUT OI= $27.24M, CALL OI= $26.31M

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 5:29:40 PM

AAPL's Feb "Max Pain" theory tabulation at last night's close was $85.00. ($5 increments)

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 5:28:10 PM

At this morning's open ... AAPL was #19 heavyweight in SPX at 0.99%. 33.38% of total.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 5:18:56 PM

U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 5:03:54 PM

AAPL ... $89.65 ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 4:48:39 PM

Reset al_rt at MONTHLY Pivot $22.08

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 4:48:06 PM

Level II $24.91 x $25.30

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 4:47:42 PM

That's got to be a "fat finger" in PBR at $21.15 extended. Has been $25.15.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 4:43:09 PM

QQQQ $29.54

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 4:42:34 PM

AAPL $92.00 ... WKLY R1 (regular session derived) $88.82.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 4:37:58 PM

QQQQ $29.15 +4.25% ... $29.60 ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 4:34:19 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $82.83 +5.92% ... jumps to $88.50 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 4:25:17 PM

dj- Equador: Jan-Nov Oil exports jumped 55% at $10.25B vs. Yr-Ago

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 4:24:19 PM

IMoneyNet: Money-Market fund outflows $27.95B in latest week

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 4:22:49 PM

EIA: US Retail Gasoline +6.3c In Week to $1.847/Gallon+23.4c, or +14.5% in last three weeks.
Retail gasoline prices highest since Nov. 24.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 4:20:50 PM

Toll Brothers (TOL) $18.27 +3.27% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 4:20:13 PM

dj- Toll Brothers Offering 30-year Fixed 3.99% Mortgage

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 4:06:59 PM

EBAY $13.28 +5.81% ... consensus is $0.39 on Revenue of $2.12B

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 4:06:20 PM

AAPL $82.83 +5.92% ... consenses is $1.39 on Revenue of $9.75B

Keene Little : 1/21/2009 4:05:21 PM

Notice on that SPX 60-min chart the nice setup we had from the bullish divergence on MACD and RSI. It was one of the reasons I kept from turning bearish on yesterday's and this morning's decline.

Keene Little : 1/21/2009 4:01:23 PM

It looks good for now for a rally up to the SPX 870 area. At most we should see minor pullbacks along the way. The key level to the downside now is at 811--drop below that and the pattern would turn very bearish with the implication that we would see very strong selling. SPX 60-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 4:01:48 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $82.65 +5.69% Link ... to the close. Earnings after the bell.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 3:59:34 PM

US Bancorp (USB) $15.90 +3.78% ... of the lows of $11.80. Earnings Press Release (this morning) Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 3:49:59 PM

PBR $24.72 +7.43% ... Feb "Max Pain" theory is $25.00. ($2.50 increments below, but $5.00 above). Not much in OI call/put at $25.00.

Keene Little : 1/21/2009 3:49:22 PM

SPX has made a clear break of both the downtrend line from January 6th as well as a move above 831. The bulls have the ball now so it's time to look for buying the dips until some upside targets are reached or we get a clean 5-wave move up from this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 3:49:03 PM

USO alert! $31.02 +8.23% ... Feb "Max Pain" tabulation.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 3:45:45 PM

AMR (Fuel Expense and Hedging) ... Fuel Expense and Hedging While the cost of jet fuel remains volatile, AMR is planning for an average system price of $2.04 per gallon in the first quarter of 2009 and $2.06 per gallon for all of 2009. AMR has 45 percent of its anticipated first quarter 2009 fuel consumption hedged at an average cap of $2.58 per gallon of jet fuel equivalent ($93 per barrel crude equivalent), with 42 percent subject to an average floor of $1.97 per gallon of jet fuel equivalent ($68 per barrel crude equivalent). AMR has 35 percent of its anticipated full-year consumption hedged at an average cap of $2.59 per gallon of jet fuel equivalent ($94 per barrel crude equivalent), with 32 percent subject to an average floor of $1.94 per gallon of jet fuel equivalent ($67 per barrel crude equivalent). As of Jan. 16, the average 2009 market forward price of crude oil was more than $51 per barrel. Consolidated consumption for the first quarter is expected to be 677 million gallons of jet fuel.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 3:39:48 PM

XAL.X 22.27 -5.95% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 3:39:33 PM

AMR Corp. (AMR) $7.84 -25.00% ... Earnings Press Release (this morning) Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 3:27:30 PM

Regional Bank HOLDRs (RKH) $47.48 +13.19% ... good for finding likely BIX.X gap lower high. Yesterday's gap lower high in RKH was $51.30. RKH's WKLY S1 $48.51.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 3:26:03 PM

XBD.X 69.95 +10.19% ... approaches yesterday's gap lower high.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 3:22:33 PM

BIX.X 81.68 +8.74% ... WKLY S1 still above.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 3:22:08 PM

XLF $8.99 +11.26% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 3:21:47 PM

UYG $3.20 +17.21% ... juuuuuuuuust above WKLY S1 ($3.18)

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 3:20:42 PM

DJ- Nymex Crude Settles $43.55, Up $2.71

Keene Little : 1/21/2009 3:20:37 PM

One precaution if you're long the market is that we might have completed a 3-wave bounce off this morning's low which will be followed by a continuation lower. The 2nd leg up for today's rally achieved 162% of the 1st leg up at 832.21 (high so far is 832.59). If today's bounce is merely a sharp upward correction of a new downtrend we could see the selling really kick into gear tomorrow. Protecting profits is the name of the game in this market.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 3:16:35 PM

VXN.X 47.85

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 3:16:24 PM

QQQQ $28.90 +3.39% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 3:16:02 PM

Swing trade SELL NAKED PUT alert! ... for two (2) of the QQQQ Feb. $26 Puts (QAV-NZ) at the bid of $0.54.

Keene Little : 1/21/2009 3:15:10 PM

SPX is now hitting the downtrend line from January 6th through Friday afternoon's high so it would be a logical place to pull back and consolidate before heading higher and breaking that downtrend line.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 3:11:18 PM

UYG $3.17 +16.11% ... I'm selling partial day trade long from YM stop IF UYG trades $3.19.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 3:09:47 PM

IUX.X 123.07 +5.40% ... edges to session high.

Keene Little : 1/21/2009 3:09:33 PM

We've got a nice rally going and the current leg up from noon looks like a 3rd wave. That means we should see a consolidation soon and then continue higher. The key level at SPX 831 is very close to being exceeded now.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 3:08:14 PM

That's a new January'09 high.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 3:07:57 PM

Good grrrravy ... IBM $91.14 +11.17% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 3:06:25 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,884/895

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 3:06:14 PM

NYSE a/d 2,144/795

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 3:05:33 PM

SPX 828.26

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 3:05:09 PM

TNX.X 2.526% ... WKLY R2 at 2.591%

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 3:04:08 PM

This is a challenge of January 6th high.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 3:03:35 PM

TYX.X alert! 3.140% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 3:01:33 PM

XLF $8.83

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 3:01:21 PM

BIX.X 80.13 +6.68% ... regionals and some money center. Edging to new session high.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 3:00:21 PM

What we got so far?... Brokers, money center ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:59:49 PM

BKX.X 27.60 +8.91% ... edges to new session high.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:58:18 PM

BIX.X 79.64 +6.03% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:58:02 PM

SPX 827.10

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:57:52 PM

VXN.X 49.11

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:57:38 PM

VIX.X alert! 48.85

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:57:23 PM

Morgan Stanley (MS) $16.16 +23.43% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:56:51 PM

WFC $15.32 +7.65% ... WKLY S1 right here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:56:19 PM

C $3.34 +19.28% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:56:07 PM

BAC $5.96 +16.86% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:54:43 PM

Pretty close ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:54:34 PM

UYG $3.08 +12.82% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:54:14 PM

XLF 8.73 +8.04% ... about where we got stopped in UYG yesterday. Or should be very close.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:51:20 PM

XLF 8.77 +8.53% ... MONTHLY S2 still ahead at $8.88.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:50:06 PM

Day by day, week by week, month by month, quarter by quarter.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:49:40 PM

Daily pivot level observation confirms XBD slightly "stronger" financial.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:49:06 PM

XBD.X 68.02 +7.15% ... sits on overlapping WKLY S1/DAILY R1.

Jane Fox : 1/21/2009 2:48:45 PM

Internals are telling you the bulls finally showed up today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:47:49 PM

YM 8,067

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:47:31 PM

BIX.X 78.33 +4.28% ... 80.9% "dynamic"

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:44:25 PM

SPX 826.00 +2.57% ...

SPY $82.72 +2.66% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:43:57 PM

Nearing MONTHLY Pivot on the VIX.X

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:43:19 PM

VIX.X 49.20

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:42:47 PM

VXN.X 49.28 ... slips below WKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:42:16 PM

QQQQ $28.65 +2.46% ... after new session high.

Keene Little : 1/21/2009 2:40:57 PM

So far so good for the bulls--jamming higher out of the compression of prices just below this morning's high is a bullish sign.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:37:47 PM

XLF $8.68 +7.42% ... inches to session high.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:37:11 PM

Note to self: Perhaps within financial, brokers slightly more bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:36:23 PM

XBD 67.64 +6.55% ... edges to new session high.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:34:06 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:31:40 PM

Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH) $73.35 +7.45% ... sector winner and bumping WKLY Pivot here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:26:08 PM

BIX.X 76.04 +1.23% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:25:55 PM

YM 8,039

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:25:43 PM

XBD's WKLY S1 at 67.79

Keene Little : 1/21/2009 2:25:19 PM

There's a bit of a rising wedge appearance to the leg up from 1:00 PM and could be the completion of a 3-wave bounce off this morning's low. This is one thing that has me thinking we could stay trapped in a trading range into tomorrow (before dropping to a new low). The test is right here--if it fails we could drop back down. If it makes it higher than this morning's high we could see an acceleration higher.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:25:18 PM

XBD.X 67.42 +6.20% ... approaches morning high.

Keene Little : 1/21/2009 2:18:07 PM

SPX is getting close to testing this morning's high at 823.70. If it fails to make a new high we could stay trapped in today's trading range into tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:17:04 PM

Roughly 6,000 stocks ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:16:44 PM

NYSE Comp and NASDAQ Comp both pressed againt their WKLY S1s.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:14:50 PM

YM short stop alert! ,,, 8,010

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:12:51 PM

BIX.X 74.94 -0.22% ... slips red again.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 2:12:34 PM

YM short lower stop alert! to even.

YM 8,003

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 1:59:25 PM

BIX.X 74.78 -0.43% ... just slipping red.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 1:59:08 PM

YM short ... stop goes 8,031. Target is 7,980

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 1:58:26 PM

YM short alert! 8,010

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 1:52:25 PM

PNC Expects Q4 loss but a 2008 profit ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 1:52:21 PM

Gooood grrravy ... PNC $26.80 +21.81% Link ... lost track of NCC acquirer after break at $42.50.

Jane Fox : 1/21/2009 1:44:17 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- President Barack Obama said Wednesday he's freezing the salaries of senior White House staffers and tightening rules on lobbying. In some of his first actions as the 44th U.S. president, Obama said "families are tightening their belts, and so should Washington." He said people who leave his administration won't be able to lobby the White House while he is president. He also put in place a ban on gifts from lobbyists, among other orders.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 1:43:44 PM

USO's February "Max Pain" theory tabulation at 01/16/09 close was $31.00.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 1:41:01 PM

BIX.X 76.08

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 1:40:47 PM

UYG $2.96

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 1:40:17 PM

YM 8,005

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 1:39:45 PM

Day traders can slap a "dynamic" on the BIX.X and the YM

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 1:37:29 PM

YM 7,977 ... went bing, bing from DAILY Pivot to WKLY S1 in last 25 minutes.

Didn't quite like the setup back at WKLY S1

Jane Fox : 1/21/2009 1:31:01 PM

Obama: Pledges new era of openness in government

Jane Fox : 1/21/2009 1:30:30 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Following weeks of speculation that Microsoft Corp. may take the unusual step of cutting jobs to grapple with the down economy, the company is expected to post fiscal second-quarter financial results after market's close on Thursday.

Last month, rumors began circulating on the Internet that Microsoft may lay off a significant number of employees. A report Wednesday in The Wall Street Journal, citing unnamed sources, said the company is considering job cuts that could be announced as early as next week. Microsoft (MSFT) has declined to comment on the speculation.

However, some analysts are skeptical that Microsoft will actually cut jobs, something it managed to avoid even in the aftermath of the Internet bubble. Microsoft is more likely, analysts say, to continue slowing its hiring pace while cutting back on contractors and scaling back more ambitious product plans.

Of course, the actions Microsoft is ultimately compelled to take depend on how it fared in the final weeks of 2008 -- a generally grim period for corporate America.

Jane Fox : 1/21/2009 1:29:37 PM

Obama freezes salaries of senior White House staff

Jane Fox : 1/21/2009 1:23:50 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. home builders became even more pessimistic about the housing market in January, according to a survey conducted by an industry trade group released Wednesday.

The home builders' monthly index fell to a record low of 8 in January from 9 in December, the National Association of Home Builders said. At its current level, the index shows that approximately one of every 12 builders believes the market is good.

The home builders' sentiment index is highly correlated with government data on housing starts, which will be released on Thursday.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect starts to fall further in December to a 600,000 annual pace from 630,000 in November, which was the lowest level of new construction of housing units in at least 50 years.

Two of the three components in the home builders' index rose in January: The index measuring expected sales rose from a record-low 16 to 17, and the index measuring buyers' traffic improved to 8 from a record-low 7. The index for current sales fell to a record-low 6 from 8.

Jane Fox : 1/21/2009 1:22:49 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Wall Street Journal received several envelopes containing an unknown white powder, the newspaper reported on its Web site Wednesday. The envelopes were addressed to "several New York-based executives" at the paper. A spokesman said the newspaper's security staff is investigating the matter. The Wall Street Journal and MarketWatch are publications of Dow Jones, which is owned by News Corp. (NWS) .

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 1:19:24 PM

Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) $24.15 +4.95% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 1:18:45 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $29.82 +4.01% ...

Keene Little : 1/21/2009 1:16:31 PM

The updated SPX 60-min chart from last night's post shows either scenario is still possible. The pink wave count calls for another low following today's bounce whereas the dark red count calls for a stronger rally leg up to the 870 area. It takes a break of the down-channel, currently near 825, to suggest we're headed higher (confirmed with a break above 831). Otherwise today's bounce will be followed by another low with a downside target near 790. SPX 60-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 1:06:37 PM

Fascinating, fascinating indeed.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 1:03:29 PM

Without a FINANCIAL, or a BANK in the bunch, might provide some clarity.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 1:02:41 PM

VXN.X 51.39 -5.61% .... I don't tabulated MONTHLY or Quarterly on this NDX/QQQQ measure of option premium/volatility. However, will not it tagged WKLY R2 (55.27) into yesterday's close.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 1:00:19 PM

XLF $8.42 +4.20% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 1:00:05 PM

IUX.X 119.48 +2.32% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 12:59:47 PM

American Intl. Group (AIG) $1.36 -0.72% ... juuuuust undercutting its 10/27/08 relative low ($1.37)

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 12:57:15 PM

VIX.X daily interval bar chart Link

BIX.X and VIX.X

Keene Little : 1/21/2009 12:40:24 PM

Is there a possibility that the bounce could start from the 800 level hit this morning? Seems looking at the A/D today that buyers are getting more aggressive at this level? Since we hit the lows this am, the rise looks good and so far not much overlap (yes, I actually am learning something from you). VIX poked above 50 day MA and now back below.

Good observation Barry. Yes, it's possible the move down finished the 5th wave as a truncation (shorter than normal). This looks more plausible on SPX than it does on NDX (which didn't make a new low this morning) as the bounce in NDX does have overlap between its highs and lows within the bounce back up. The other possibility is that we're going to chop sideways as price consolidates before getting the 5th wave down. It's not clear enough for me at the moment to make any recommendations here. I'm on the sidelines and waiting for a setup.

Jane Fox : 1/21/2009 12:40:02 PM

Roberts put the word "faithfully" at the end of the sentence when taking Obama's Oath of Office. HMMM Obama voted against Roberts' confirmation as Chief Justice you know.

Jane Fox : 1/21/2009 12:37:51 PM

Some are asking if President Obama is really the president since The Oath of Office has not been technically taken. The Oath of Office is the only direct quote in the U.S. Constitution and after Chief Justice John Roberts' mangled of the oath, some are asking, "Is Obama really president since he has not taken the oath as written in the Constitution." Chief Justice Roberts put the word "faithfully" in the wrong place.

Here is what the constitution says, "Before he enter on the Execution of his Office, he shall take the following Oath or Affirmation: 'I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.'" Has this oath technically, not been taken

Jane Fox : 1/21/2009 12:31:12 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- President Barack Obama is working on a comprehensive bank-rescue package that will be unveiled in the next few weeks, said Timothy Geithner, Obama's nominee to be the nation's next Treasury secretary.

In testimony Wednesday before the Senate Finance Committee, Geithner didn't say how much the new package would cost. He refused to give specifics, saying that Wall Street wouldn't benefit from advance signals.

Former Federal Reserve Board chairman Paul Volcker told the panel that the cost of fixing the banks would cost several trillion dollars. No one took issue with that estimate.

More government assistance would be needed, Geither said, because the crisis is far from over. The money will have to be used to get credit markets back to normal.

Geithner said the new plan would address concerns arising from the first bailout overseen by former Treasury chief Henry Paulson.

Jane Fox : 1/21/2009 12:28:44 PM

After a brief dip below ON lows the markets retreated and are now back into their ON ranges. I guess they didn't want to get out of bed on the bear's side either. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 12:28:32 PM

BIX and QQQQ 5-minute interval chart with cursor box set as BIX.X makes new low at 10:30-35 AM. Link

The MAJOR POINT here is there isn't a bank in the bunch, but when BIX.X weakened, it "sucked the life" out of buyers.

Thus the importance of the banks and financials in general.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 12:17:26 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 12:07:16 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Noting some intra-day highs/lows now. Drawing off of BIX.X work.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 11:58:39 AM

Bullish % Bank (BPBANK) as of last night's close Link

Saw the 3-box reversal back to "bull correction" on 01/12/09 (actual was 34.92%). Has shown the ability to still see component stocks that are still on a "buy signal" give a reversing lower "sell signal" with this bullish % falling to 8%.

May still be some BULL risk to be removed.

Keene Little : 1/21/2009 11:48:09 AM

As I mentioned last night, the pattern we've been in since October/November requires a shorter-term trading mentality. There are too many possibilities from here to try to attempt any longer-term trades yet. In my attempt to keep my bias out of my analysis I'm trying to consider all potential moves in the market and then reduce them to what I consider the higher-probability setups.

I'm going to assume for now that we're going to get another low to the downside target for ES at 787. That would be about SPX 790 (although I see potential support near 796). From there we should get a stronger bounce back up but that's when it becomes unclear what could play out next. I believe there's not much to drive a stronger rally than just a bounce back up to SPX 870-880 but price is the final arbiter. There are some who believe we're going to get a big rally into February and think a successful retest of the November low will bring in hoards of buyers.

So I'm including the possibility of the bigger rally on the daily chart: Link . If SPX drops to 790 and then starts the bigger rally leg we get an upside projection to 991 for two equal legs up from the November low (dark red). Nice little 200-point rally if it happens. As shown in pink, we could see a bounce and then turn back down for a test of the November low by mid February before another bounce and then lower into March. Or we could simply drop to a new low from here.

So first things first--I want to see if we get a new low today and watch SPX 790-796 for support.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 11:43:42 AM

BIX.X daily interval bar chart Link

The BIGGEST enemy to a bear right now is a short-covering BEAR him/herself.

At a 52-week and multi-year low, the WKLY S2 is going to serve more as a bear target and level to break than anything. I would be more inclined if SHORT/PUT this chart to SIT and WAIT and only be taking either a PARTIAL BEAR PROFIT, or have an al_rt set above MONTHLY S3 as a LEVEL where short-covering begins to pick up some steam.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 11:28:02 AM

BIX.X 74.37 -0.98% ... with BIX.X below MONTHLY S2, and so much room to QUARTERLY S2, I pulled up a pivot calculator with an S3. Using December's regular session high/low and close (154.31, 116.49, 137.53), the MONTHLY S3 would be 80.09.

Not much help for a "support" level, but certainly being traded with morning high of 80.04.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 11:04:45 AM

Bears could be more aggressive near-term with thought that transition of power has President's Working Group tied up.

Jane Fox : 1/21/2009 11:03:14 AM

Internals look a lot like they did yesterday but, and it is a big but, the AD line and volume are above 0 not below. Then, of course, the TRIN is below 1 and AD ratio is above 1. That is a huge difference from yesterday. Link

Keene Little : 1/21/2009 10:55:35 AM

ES has closed its gap and SPX is about to test its broken downtrend line from yesterday's mid-day high. If it's going to rally it has to do it from here. Otherwise new low here we come.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 10:51:17 AM

UYG $2.89 +5.86% ... after a session high of $3.05 (see yesterday's MM and STOP of $3.04).

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 10:50:24 AM

XLF $8.41 +4.08% ... while higher, this morning's high of $8.67 came right at the 11/21/08 low of $8.67. Suggests to me sellers were waiting for ANY type of bounce to re-think things.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 10:48:34 AM

Yen CurrencyShares (FXY) $112.71 +1.54% ... after just retracing 80.9% of its 12/17/08 to 01/06/09 decline.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 10:46:09 AM

European Markets: Link ... are mixed-to-higher with the UK's FTSE-100 ($FTSE) Link off 12 points, or -0.29% at 4,079. Germany's DAX ($DAX) Link is up 49 points, or +1.16% at 4,289, while France's CAC-40 ($CAC) Link is up 15 points, or +0.53% at 2,940.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 10:42:51 AM

BIX.X 73.82 -1.71% ... softening up and a new 52-weeker.

Keene Little : 1/21/2009 10:40:17 AM

ES closed yesterday at 806 so any lower than that (gap closure) would be bearish and pointing to new lows).

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 10:39:02 AM

Asian Markets: Link ... were lower on Wednesday with Japan's Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) falling 164 points, or -2.04% to 7,901.64 with the Bank of Yokohama falling more than 7% after its head said it has no immediate plans to apply for public funds but will leave open the option of tapping state money if the need arises. Hong Kong's Hang Seng ($HSI) slumped 376 points, or -2.90% while mainland China's Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) remained tentative below the 2,000 level, edging down 9 points, or -0.46% at 1,985.02.

Keene Little : 1/21/2009 10:37:12 AM

Looking at an all-hours chart of ES the move down from Sunday evening looks like it needs a 5th wave down and that the bounce off yesterday's low into this morning is a 4th wave correction. This interpretation calls for a new low with a downside target of 787.25 if the current bounce has completed. Stay aware of this possibility if you're long the market. ES 60-min all-hours chart: Link

Jane Fox : 1/21/2009 10:33:51 AM

The markets peaked above their respective ON highs then decided, "No I think I will stay here in the comfort of where I was ON. No need to rock the boat and get all bullish. That will be just too much work. I think I will go right back to bed. It is much warmer here in bed."

Jane Fox : 1/21/2009 10:21:46 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Growth in vehicle sales in emerging markets couldn't help General Motors Corp. overcome a sharp drop in North America as the sickly automotive giant reported Wednesday that worldwide volume fell 11% on a combination of tough credit conditions, commodity prices and stunted economic growth

While sales performance in its Latin America, Africa and Middle East, and Asia-Pacific regions was "record-setting," Detroit-based GM (GM) said North America plunged a staggering 21% and Europea sank 7%.

The drop was enough to knock the company into the No. 2 slot, falling short of Toyota Motor Corp. (TM) and the Japanese manufacturer's global sales volume by roughly 600,000 vehicles.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 10:19:13 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/21/2009 9:56:37 AM

The 5 minute ES (S&P futures) chart has made a lower low but will need a lower high to confirm it however, it looks like ES is now making a higher high.

Jane Fox : 1/21/2009 9:54:53 AM

It certainly looks like the overnight highs and lows will be resistance and support today. Link

Keene Little : 1/21/2009 9:50:43 AM

The downtrend line I have on my SPX 10-min chart (posted last night) has been broken this morning. It's currently near 814 so I'm watching to see if it pulls back to there and finds support (it should if we've got a bullish resolution out of yesterday's decline).

Jane Fox : 1/21/2009 9:45:35 AM

The SPX closed at 806.75 and if the gap is going to close it needs to get down to around that area. Daily low so far is 812.25

Jane Fox : 1/21/2009 9:41:10 AM

VIX gaps down (closed at 56.65 and opens at 51.59) but is still within its previous day range.

Jane Fox : 1/21/2009 9:40:26 AM

AD line is a very healthy +1410.

Jane Fox : 1/21/2009 9:40:05 AM

Crude is up a whole $0.65. I keep waiting for this very nice MACD divergence to either kick in and Crude make an equally nice move upward or the MACD succumb to the downward pressure and make a lower low. So far neither one has happened.

I read different trading websites and many of them are trying to get long Crude because it is so oversold and they keep getting the fingers cut so you need confirmation the trend is changing before you try to get into this market. The first thing to look for would be a trend change, a higher high confirmed by a higher low. That is the paramount! Then, with a market that has so much downward pressure, you need a little more.

If you get a higher low that will start to build a reverse head and shoulders pattern and from there you can determine where the neckline is and make a projection for your target. I would not try a long until you get at least a reverse head and shoulders.

I know I have talked a lot about the reverse head and shoulders but a market with this kind of downward trend, the reverse H&S is almost a must before you can say the bottom is in. Link

Keene Little : 1/21/2009 9:38:58 AM

We've got a nice start to the reversal. It will be the shape of the pullback that matters now.

Jane Fox : 1/21/2009 9:25:35 AM

The overnight session was a sideways consolidation with no direction one way or the other, in other words there were no higher highs and lows or lower highs and lows, the definition of a trend. This is usually a good sign for day traders since they don't want all the movement to take place during the ON session with nothing left for the intraday. Unfortunately though that does not guarantee the intraday session have more volatility and be good for day traders, it just means volatility was not "used up" during the ON session. Link

Jane Fox : 1/21/2009 9:19:20 AM

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Asian markets ended sharply lower Wednesday, with financial stocks again taking the lead, as investors abandoned regional banking and insurance shares amid growing concerns over their earnings outlooks.

Shanghai gave up earlier gains to end in the red, while only Taiwan managed to avoid the region's decline, as merger talks among domestic chipmakers helped lift the overall mood. In Sydney, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto both fell after the two miners said they'd cut output.

Keene Little : 1/21/2009 9:18:56 AM

We'll get a gap up to start today's trading so that's the first good thing for the bulls today. They will need to continue the rally as even gap closure would signal too much weakness. Long against yesterday's low is the recommended position and the first goal is to get above yesterday's late-day high at 3:30 PM (SPX 815.37).

Jane Fox : 1/21/2009 9:18:34 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) - The financial sector was pummelled once again in Europe on Wednesday, with most lenders falling sharply as investors continued to fret governments could be forced to step in and nationalize lenders struggling to shore up capital positions.

The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index fell 1.5% to 183.00.

But the losses were most pronounced for banks. Shares of Barclays dropped 20.4%, Lloyds Banking Group shares fell 13.2% and BNP Paribas shares fell 5.9%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 12:54:49 AM

YM +60 at .... 8,005

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 12:54:11 AM

YM daily pivot levels for Wednesday (regular session derived from Tuesday) are ... 7677, 7811, Piv= 8,005, 8139, 8333.

Keene Little : 1/21/2009 12:37:48 AM

I just noticed the 60-min chart is missing from my earlier post. Here it is: Link

Keene Little : 1/21/2009 12:35:13 AM

Wednesday's pivot table: Link

Keene Little : 1/21/2009 12:28:27 AM

Tuesday's decline dropped prices further than I had expected so we've got a potentially bearish setup for at least a test of the November lows. But there's something about the pattern of the decline from Friday that doesn't have me thinking that bearish. It's a bit subjective but the price pattern of the decline looks more like a correction rather than an impulsive (5-wave) move. To me that suggests the pullback from Friday is part of a larger upward correction instead.

Towards the end of the day, with the break below last Thursday's low, I was looking for Fib levels where SPX should find support if the pullback was part of a larger upward correction rather than part of a larger decline. As I had mentioned Tuesday afternoon, a 127% projection of a previous move often acts as a reversal level. So a 127% projection of the rally from Thursday to Friday morning is at 805.86 and this level held at the close. This is shown on the 10-min chart: Link

There is also a projection at 803.77 where the move down from Friday afternoon's high has two equal legs down. Tuesday's low was 804.47. I can't say the wave count on the 10-min chart is one I particularly like but I like it better than forcing an impulsive wave count on it. It calls for a rally back up above Friday's high at 858.

Therefore we have the setup for a reversal on Wednesday but this must reverse now. Any further drop, or a corrective bounce followed by a new low (pink) would be bearish. A move much above 816 would be a heads up that the rally leg has started. Both scenarios are shown on the 60-min chart: . As shown in pink, if we get a little bounce and then head lower again I'll be watching the 780 area for potential support. Below that is 768 (October 2002 low) and then 741 (November low).

The vertical lines on the 60-min chart are Fib time projections based off the Jan 6-15 decline and the 62% projection falls on Friday morning at the open. The dark red count is the expanded flat projection idea where the pullback from last Friday is part of a larger upward correction which requires another rally leg. The Fib price projection for it is at 870.95 (162% of the 1st leg up--last Thursday's rally). A rally back above 831 (Friday's low) would be likely confirmation that we're into the rally leg.

In the meantime I'm trying to get a handle on what this all means on the longer time frame. As shown on the daily chart: Link , we could continue a very choppy consolidation through February before heading lower. But the potential remains that we're already into the leg down that will take us to new lows. It's also possible, as I had shown on the chart for the Transports on Tuesday ( Link ), that we'll get a much bigger rally leg into February. Because of the wide variation in possibilities I remain a short-term trader and not hanging onto trades. It's not an environment that allows that yet.

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 12:04:15 AM

EIA Crude Oil Inventories will be released Thursday at 11:00 AM ET due to the closure of the Federal government on Monday, January 19 and Tuesday, January 20.

Jeff Bailey : 1/20/2009 10:58:29 PM

RUT.X NH/NL tally was 3:96. 5-day NH/NL ratio slips to 5.0%. 10-day NH/NL ratio down to 18.8%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/20/2009 10:57:02 PM

SPX NH/NL tally was 1:32

Jeff Bailey : 1/20/2009 10:54:16 PM

YM +62 at 8,007

Jeff Bailey : 1/20/2009 10:48:15 PM

IBM $81.98 -3.46% ... $85.30 was last tick in this evening's extended session.

Jeff Bailey : 1/20/2009 10:41:15 PM

Major Global Indexes, Currencies, USO/OIX, GLD/HUI, XLF, DJUSHB and IEF table Link

XLF down roughly same as all of Q4 at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 1/20/2009 10:28:10 PM

Since U.S. Election

INDU -17.4%
OEX -20.8%
NDX -17.5%
SPX -19.9%
RUT.X -20.6%

OI Technical Staff : 1/20/2009 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Market Monitor Archives