Option Investor
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Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 8:55:13 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 8:41:32 PM

SPX NH/NL tally was 1:14

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 8:39:33 PM

Dorsey/Wright's breakdown of new highs/new lows Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 8:32:36 PM

RUT.X's NH/NL tally was 4:71. 5-day NH/NL ratio up a fraction at 3.9% and 10-day NH/NL ratio falling to 10.8%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 5:40:49 PM

EIA's This Week In Petroleum Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 5:24:39 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 5:13:23 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 5:07:16 PM

GOOG's WKLY R1 at $318.06 (regular session derived)

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 5:06:49 PM

GOOG $315

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 5:05:22 PM

RKH's March "Max Pain" at $55.00

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 5:04:24 PM

Good heavens ...

RHK's Feb "Max Pain" at $70.00

Here at $45 strike its all put $18 million.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 5:02:53 PM

BIX and RKH ... now a 10-minute interval. Note RKH near-term as we still waiver either side of TREND "A" and M S3. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 4:46:40 PM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 4:38:06 PM

NYSE a/d line finished 540/2,363

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 4:37:48 PM

I was thinking 8,033. 8,050 at best.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 4:36:42 PM

Almost the D Pivot (regular session derived)

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 4:35:56 PM

Good grrravy ... YM looks to have settled 8,092

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 4:31:17 PM

TARGET on the IWM-BR is $48.45 in the underlying IWM

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 4:26:23 PM

Google (GOOG) ... Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 4:18:03 PM

PUT OI a little heavier than CALL OI at $11.4M and $9.82M

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 4:16:58 PM

GOOG's Feb "Max Pain" theory tabulation at this morning's open was $300.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 4:14:17 PM

RVX.x 54.93 (russ volatility measure)

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 4:12:21 PM

IWM and IWMBR a couple of minutes left for options Link

Play this again. WITH OPTIONS!

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 4:06:44 PM

Google (GOOG) $306.50 +1.12% ... pops to $317.30 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 4:05:57 PM

IWM $44.29

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 4:05:43 PM

Swing trade call option alert! ... for one (1) of the iShares Russell 2000 IWM Feb $44 Calls (IWM-BR) at the offer of $2.68

Keene Little : 1/22/2009 4:05:22 PM

Flip a coin for tomorrow. We're stuck in some kind of consolidation pattern or will head higher in a very choppy fashion.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 4:04:43 PM

BIX.X 78.69 -7.05% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 4:03:07 PM

Do have an UPWARD trend on PBR from 11/20/08 low to 01/15/09 low.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 4:00:59 PM

Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) $24.31 -3.33% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 3:59:28 PM

UGA $20.41 -8.96% ... has seen $19.81

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 3:58:18 PM

SCO $34.60 +5.68% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 3:57:47 PM

USO $30.03 -3.22% ... to the close. "zone" $30.29-$30.87 looks to hold. Session low was $28.46.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 3:53:44 PM

Google (GOOG) $307.70 +1.52% ... another "psycho stock" into earnings. Consensus is for EPS of $4.95 on Revenues of $4.12B

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 3:48:35 PM

Corinthian Colleges (COCO) $18.52 +8.74% ... notable 52-weeker at the NASDAQ.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 3:46:27 PM

Southwest Air (LUV) $9.89 +18.01% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 3:45:58 PM

Brinker Intl. (EAT) $11.23 +35.42% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 3:44:28 PM

DryShips (DRYS) $10.42 -28.06% .... "sinking"

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 3:43:13 PM

IUX.X 114.96 -9.74% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 3:42:33 PM

Aflac (AFL) $22.74 -37.30% ...

Keene Little : 1/22/2009 3:28:33 PM

The rally in bonds off this morning's low looks clearly corrective--like a bear flag. I expect to see bonds continue to sell off, probably tomorrow, and that money could still rotate into stocks. As bearish as this afternoon's drop now looks I'm thinking we could be in the middle of what will be a very choppy (and ultimately bearish) rally that could take another couple of days to get SPX up to 870. That's obviously a guess right now but the larger price pattern supports that scenario. The hard number for the bulls is this morning's low--break that and it's taps for the bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 3:24:45 PM

BIX.X 78.83 -6.88% ... smack a dack on that TREND "A"

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 3:23:46 PM

NYSE a/d 594/2,268

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 3:23:18 PM

Enough time? Enough room? YM 7,989

Jane Fox : 1/22/2009 3:13:52 PM

AD volume to new daily lows so we remain in a sell the rallies scenario.

Keene Little : 1/22/2009 3:08:30 PM

Now it looks like we've got a small 5-wave move down from this afternoon's high. This is starting to look more bearish now.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 3:06:11 PM

Knight Capital (NITE) $17.46 +12.35% ... one of your market makers.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 3:05:06 PM

NASDAQ a/d 711/1,976

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 3:04:52 PM

NYSE a/d 614/2,194

Keene Little : 1/22/2009 3:04:20 PM

The moves are definitely getting exaggerated as the pullback from the high is a little deeper than I expected to see. Nothing's been violated yet from an EW perspective so we can still get another leg up to complete a 5-wave move up from this morning's low but ideally it needs to giddy up and go higher from here. A drop below SPX 823 would negate the 5-wave move idea and suggest at a minimum that we're going to either chop higher (ugly rally) or chop sideways before heading lower again.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 3:03:36 PM

Kind'a looking at "financials" right now as ...

HEAD= brokers


Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 3:03:01 PM

XBD.X 71.29 -0.65% ... slips back red.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 3:02:36 PM

BIX.X 79.89

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 3:02:13 PM

And HAVE THAT UPWARD trend still on the chart.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 3:01:32 PM

And the MACD ... currently -29.33 but approaching 0.00

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 3:00:42 PM

IF short, watch that 50-pd like a hawk

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 3:00:17 PM

click a 60-minute on the YM

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 2:55:59 PM

YM 5-minute intervals Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 2:52:24 PM

Will certainly be looking LONG YM back near DAILY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 2:50:11 PM

YM 8,087 ... probes DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 2:49:01 PM

missed the short ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 2:41:10 PM

NASDAQ a/d 751/1,930

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 2:40:59 PM

NYSE a/d 614/2,194

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 2:39:48 PM

a/d lines not nearly as "strong" at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 2:39:10 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Yesterday's 02:00 Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 2:32:12 PM

USO $30.70 -1.06% ... reverses EIA knee-jerk decline.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 2:26:50 PM

SPX 838.04

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 2:26:39 PM

QQQQ $29.18

SPY $83.88

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 2:26:00 PM

AAPL $90.00 alert!

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 2:25:39 PM

NDX 1,187.25 +0.12% ... inches green.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 2:24:12 PM

near-term "reletive strength" still present.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 2:23:39 PM

XBD.X 73.02 +1.75% ... only "financial" green at this point. (see yesterday's MM)

Keene Little : 1/22/2009 2:20:28 PM

We could see price consolidate for about an hour before pressing higher again (that's for the bullish pattern).

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 2:20:22 PM

First U.S. major to do so ... NDX didn't quite do it though

Keene Little : 1/22/2009 2:19:54 PM

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 2:19:43 PM

QQQQ $29.15 (unch) ...

Keene Little : 1/22/2009 2:18:55 PM

I just noticed SPX is also tagging the downtrend line from last Friday's high. It's a good place to rest a little before continuing higher. If instead it drops back down towards this morning's low it's going to look like we'll stay trapped inside a sideways triangle pattern between Friday's high and yesterday's low.

Keene Little : 1/22/2009 2:16:09 PM

For those who have been moaning about the lack of volatility in the market--it's baaaack.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 2:14:06 PM

QQQQ $29.00 -0.48% ... backfills 1/2 of this mornings gap down.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 2:12:51 PM

10-year ($TNX.X) up 6.6 bp at 2.592% ... sits on WKLY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 2:11:00 PM

IBM $89.90 -1.66% ...

Keene Little : 1/22/2009 2:10:54 PM

The rally off this morning's low has already exceeded the level where SPX had two equal legs up (828.94). The next Fib level of resistance is where the 2nd leg up will achieve 162%--836.32. That would also be slightly higher than a 78.6% retracement of today's decline (835.21) and would strongly support a new high coming.

Following the current leg up we should get a consolidation near the high followed by a 5th wave up for the rally off this morning's low. The key level for the downside can now be moved up to the pullback low just past 1:00 PM (817).

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 2:10:38 PM

Repeat of yesterday's 02:00 ???

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 2:09:37 PM

XLF $9.01

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 2:09:10 PM

UYG $3.20

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 2:08:58 PM

VIX.X 48.97

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 2:08:49 PM

SPX 828

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 2:08:39 PM

BIX.X 81.00 alert!

Keene Little : 1/22/2009 2:06:34 PM

Jane Fox : 1/22/2009 2:14:40 PM

Internals are certainly turning around yet AD volume/line is still bearish. Link

Jane Fox : 1/22/2009 1:59:29 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Barclays Capital has completed the integration of Lehman Brothers' North American business and strengthened the leadership team, the company said Thursday. As part of the process, the investment banking division of Barclays PLC promoted eight senior managing directors to its executive committee to "match the scale and reach of our integrated team." The committee now has 15 members. Barclays bought bankrupt Lehman's North American investment banking and capital markets operations and assets in September for about $1.75 billion.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2009 1:57:30 PM

... AD line is still -1770 so don't expect too much if long.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2009 1:56:31 PM

VIX is making new daily lows so I suspect ES will probably make new daily highs.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2009 1:55:11 PM

Crude is down $2.94 on inventory data. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 1:53:19 PM

Decent buy program coming in ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 1:50:54 PM

VXN 48.58

NDX 1,162 : QQQQ $28.64

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 1:49:57 PM

VIX.X 50.00

SPX 820.40

Keene Little : 1/22/2009 1:44:14 PM

So far I'm leaning bullish on this little consolidation after the bounce off the lows. But I've got my foot holding the exit door open on my bullish positions.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 1:18:41 PM

QQQQ/NDX/NQ "Big 10" Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 1:10:10 PM

MSFT $17.48 -9.80% ...

AAPL $89.19 +7.61% ...

QQQQ $28.66 -1.71% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 1:08:56 PM

Apple (AAPL) $89.25 +7.75% ... edges back above WKLY R1 (88.88) regular session derived. In last night's extended, you see some "pennant" action at the $90.00 strike level.

Keene Little : 1/22/2009 12:58:45 PM

After this larger bounce up we can now use this morning's low as a key level (SPX 811.29). Any decline from here that drops to a new daily low would be bearish--it would be time to abandon any long play and get short.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 12:58:43 PM

SPY $82.18 -2.22% ... Daily Pivot 82.92 (regular session derived) ... session high has been, been 82.97.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 12:57:45 PM

SPX 820.73 -2.32% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 12:57:19 PM

just kissed 80.01

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 12:57:02 PM

BIX.X 79.18 -6.47% ... DAILY Pivot 80.52

Keene Little : 1/22/2009 12:53:23 PM

Looks like the bulls decided to put up. The setup is for a quick spike higher and then stair-step higher from there. At least a test of this morning's bounce high near 828 should be next. Exceeding that high will say we've seen the low for now.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2009 12:48:22 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Former Chief Executive John Thain of Merrill Lynch has resigned from Bank of America (BAC) after a brief meeting with Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday in its online edition. Bank of America had lost confidence in Thain after he failed to inform them of mounting losses at Merrill Lynch, the newspaper said, citing a source familiar with the matter. Thain had earlier asked the Bank of America board for a $10 million bonus but then withdrew the request when the directors resisted. Thain's departure comes less than a month after Bank of America closed its purchase of Merrill.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 12:46:19 PM

RKH VOLUME will give some insights as to interest among participants.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 12:45:42 PM

TEST here is "easy" ... same as when at TREND "B" and MONTHLY S1. Now TREND "A" and MONTHLY S3.

BEAR says ... "shouldn't come much above BIX 80.09 (82.86 max)"

BULL says ... "better get above BIX.X 80.09 (82.86) even better.

Keene Little : 1/22/2009 12:43:39 PM

SPX tagged it (hit 818.96). It's now put up or shut up for the bulls.

Keene Little : 1/22/2009 12:42:09 PM

Otherwise it will be just another little 3-wave bounce off the low and down we go again.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 12:41:59 PM

BIX and RKH with volume turned on as BIX.X trades back below TREND A Link

Keene Little : 1/22/2009 12:41:37 PM

The bounce off the low will achieve two equal legs up at SPX 818.82 (not quite tagged yet). If the bulls can do better than that level we'll have our first heads up that we might have seen the bottom for now.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2009 12:45:34 PM

The other place I go looking for evidence the bulls are lurking is MACD divergences. Here are the 5 minute charts of the indexes we watch here in the monitor and there are no bullish divergences that I can detect. So the sell the rallies scenario is still intact. Link

Keene Little : 1/22/2009 12:40:16 PM

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 12:26:11 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/22/2009 12:16:30 PM

This was the kind of day we had on Tuesday and it never recovered so I am going to venture out on the proverbial limb and say today probably will not either. Link

Keene Little : 1/22/2009 12:11:32 PM

It's been a slow grind lower but nothing that's turning me particularly bearish from here. I'm not excited about chasing it lower and instead I'm waiting for evidence of a bottom.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 12:05:55 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Have covered partial position of UGA @ $20.44.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 11:41:45 AM

Swing trade short cover partial alert! ... for the $10K account, let's cover 132 shares of the currently short 232 shares in the US Gasoline Fund (UGA) at the offer of $20.44.

Keene Little : 1/22/2009 11:22:43 AM

As the market chops its way lower it's either very bearish and about to let go to the downside or else it's an ending pattern and is getting ready to rally. Any push back above a prior bounce high is potentially bullish at this point. Follow it lower but be ready to bail if you're short and consider legging into a long position if it starts rallying. Bonds are still selling off and there's money that needs to be put to work.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 11:17:57 AM

I need to shut down and try a reboot again....

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 11:16:49 AM

USO $28.64 -7.73% alert! ...

SCO $37.71 +15.18% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 11:14:29 AM

For the SCO, I will be using a STOP that is equivalent to just above the 12/19/08 November futures termination price close to begin.

USO= $33.06

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 11:11:53 AM

That's a BEARISH 200-x long for SCO

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 11:08:08 AM

USO $28.86 -6.99% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 11:05:59 AM

Swing trade long alert! ... for 1/8 position in the ProShares UltraShort Oil (SCO) at the offer of $37.70.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 11:03:53 AM

Petroleu Brasileiro (PBR) $24.13 -4.05% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 11:02:14 AM

IBM $89.08 -2.55% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 11:01:17 AM

USO $29.83 -3.86% ...

UGA $21.85 -2.54% ...

Jane Fox : 1/22/2009 10:58:57 AM

This the SPX's way of playing with your head. Sideways consolidations midpoint between a high and a low is about as unpredictable technical analysis can get. Are the probabilities greater for a rally or for further decline? Will the support at 800 hold or will the resistance at 850 hold?

The best thing to do right now is step aside and wait although I know this may not be possible. If you trade options long (calls or puts) you may be under water and holding will only make matters worse however, if you trade credit spreads like Linda then this is a very good scenario. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 10:58:07 AM

IUX.X 115.50 -9.31% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 10:57:37 AM

Berkshire Hathaway B (BRK.B) 2,494 +0.34% ... at 19.1% Fib of 12/11/07 high to recent 11/20/08 low.

Keene Little : 1/22/2009 10:55:55 AM

So far SPX is finding support at the 62% retracement of yesterday's rally. A little lower, near 815, is the next Fib support level (2nd leg down today achieving 62% of the 1st leg down). Below that we have 812 (78.6% retracement) and then 807 (two equal legs down).

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 10:55:41 AM

10:50 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/22/2009 10:53:10 AM

At this point any push back above this morning's high would now be bullish for at least another leg up that should easily exceed yesterday's high.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 10:51:48 AM

Microsoft (MSFT) $17.73 -8.51% ... Earnings Press Release Link

Jane Fox : 1/22/2009 10:45:53 AM

S&P and DOW futures are now making new daily low but the NDX futures are not.

Keene Little : 1/22/2009 10:32:30 AM

I have SPX 811 as a key level to the downside--a break below it could usher in stronger selling below yesterday's low. However, because of the multitude of 3-wave moves recently I'm beginning to wonder if we're going to stay stuck in a large sideways consolidation pattern for a few more days (which would be a bearish continuation pattern).

Two equal legs down from yesterday's high (if it drops lower from here) is at SPX 807. So while a move below 811 would be potentially very bearish I would want to see what it does around 807 before getting more aggressively short. We could instead see another rally attempt, even back above yesterday's high, from the 807 level.

Keene Little : 1/22/2009 10:27:52 AM

The pattern of the bounce off this morning's low looks bearish. I would expect another leg down from this.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2009 10:25:58 AM

The bulls have a lot of work ahead to even test ON highs. Link

Jane Fox : 1/22/2009 10:15:37 AM

This is not a day you want to try the long side but sell the rallies (if we get any that is).

Jane Fox : 1/22/2009 10:14:57 AM

... although I wouldn't be expecting too much considering the AD line is still quite bearish at -1818.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2009 10:14:21 AM

VIX just fell to a new daily low so the S&P futures should follow with a new daily high.

Keene Little : 1/22/2009 9:56:46 AM

Bonds took a little dump so we could see money rotate back into stocks.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2009 9:49:10 AM

Needless to say the AD line opened at a bearish -1682 and the VIX, of course, gapped up (closed at 46.42 and opened at 50.66), however, still in its previous day range.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2009 9:37:53 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Microsoft Corp. reported a drop in earnings for its second fiscal quarter and announced plans to lay off as many as 5,000 workers as the slowing economy has hurt the software giant's businesses.

The company issued a surprise earnings report before the opening bell Thursday. The report was originally scheduled for after the close of the session.

For the period ended Dec. 31, Microsoft (MSFT) said net income came in at $4.17 billion, or 47 cents per share, compared with net income of $4.7 billion, or 50 cents a share, for the same period the previous year. Analysts had been looking for earnings of 49 cents a share, according to consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters.

Revenue grew slightly to $16.6 billion from $16.4 billion last year. Analysts had been expecting revenue of $17.08 billion.

Microsoft also refrained from giving a forecast for the current period, citing the uncertain economic conditions.

Keene Little : 1/22/2009 9:37:24 AM

A 50% and 62% retracement of yesterday's rally is at SPX 823 and 818.59.

Keene Little : 1/22/2009 9:28:52 AM

We'll start the day with a big gap down (looks like volatility is returning) so we'll watch to see how the Fib retracement levels hold (or not).

Jane Fox : 1/22/2009 9:26:17 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Electronic trading and brokerage firm Interactive Brokers said Thursday its fourth-quarter profit rose 7% as rising revenue helped the firm outpace slipping margins

I'm not sure how many of you have ever used IB as a broker but they are very good. They have a universal account where you can trade futures, Forex, Equities and options all in the same account.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2009 9:23:55 AM

MSFT is off 7.33% in the off hours session.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2009 9:23:04 AM

LAS VEGAS (MarketWatch) -- The volume of mortgage applications filed last week dropped a seasonally adjusted 9.8% compared with the week before, as interest rates on fixed-rate mortgages rose, reversing their recent trend, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2009 9:20:40 AM

Go back and take a look at the last bar (20 minute charts) on your ON charts. As I was typing the post about the ON markets, I noticed this huge move downward and had to keep moving the ON session low marker lower. I was wondering why the futures were selling off 45 minutes AFTER the economic news. Now I know why.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2009 9:16:43 AM

Microsoft cutting up to 5,000 jobs over next 18 months

Economy, IT spending 'slowed beyond expectation'

Microsoft job cuts include 1,400 lay-offs Thursday

Yesterday I posted an article about rumors that MSFT was going to make an unprecedented move and lay off workers. Speculation was that it may not happen but that they would only cut back contract workers. Well so much for speculation.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2009 9:14:08 AM

Crude is down $0.75. Link

Jane Fox : 1/22/2009 9:11:59 AM

The market did not like the economic reports out at 8:30. The reports that told us construction on new homes fell by 15% to the lowest on record, the first-time applications for unemployment is up 82% year over year. This is a huge move for the overnight session. Link

Jane Fox : 1/22/2009 9:07:17 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- First-time applications for state unemployment benefits rose 62,000 to a seasonally adjusted 589,000 in the week ending Jan. 17, the Labor Department said Thursday.

The level of initial claims is up 82% from the same period a year ago. The last time the level was higher was in November 1982. The four-week average of new claims was unchanged at 519,250.

Meanwhile, the number of people collecting benefits in the week ending Jan. 10 rose 97,000 to 4.61 million, a level that is 72% higher than in the prior year. The four-week average of continuing claims rose 58,750 to 4.56 million -- the highest level since November 1982.

The insured unemployment rate remained at 3.4%.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2009 9:05:49 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Construction on new homes took another turn for the worse in December, falling more than 15% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 550,000, the lowest on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

Permits to build single-family homes fell 12.3% to a record-low 363,000 in December, while total permits including apartments dropped 10.7% to a 549,000 annual rate, also a record low. Building permits are considered a more reliable guide to the state of the housing market, because they are less affected by weather conditions than the housing starts figures.

The report was much worse than expected for the second consecutive month. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for a smaller drop to an annual rate of about 600,000, thinking that November's 15% decline in starts wouldn't be repeated.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 1:21:11 AM

Three-quarters of stimulus to go in 18 months ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 12:35:42 AM

NDX/QQQQ top holdings/weightings ...

AAPL 9.65%
QCOM 6.73%
MSFT 5.58%
GILD 4.16%
GOOG 4.15%
ORCL 3.41%
CSCO 3.09%
RIMM 2.81%
TEVA 2.59%
AMGN 2.58%

Sector/Industry Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2009 12:27:42 AM

Just in case ...

ProShares Short QQQQ PSQ $74.13 -4.11%
ProShares UltraShort QQQQ QID $58.05 -8.04%.

QQQQ finished $29.15 +4.26%

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 11:54:26 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Sold NAKED 2 of the QQQQ Feb $26 Puts (OBLIGATION to buy 200 shares of QQQQ @ $26, less the $0.54/contract ($108) premium received.

I am not establishing a stop at this time. Would use either a pure QQQQ short, or an inverse QQQQ-like ETF as a "hedge" security if need be.

Day trade short the YM on Wednesday at 8,010. Stopped MM @ 02:14:50 as BIG BLUE moved higher and BIX.X caught the bid.

It's RARE that I wouldn't have seen IBM earlier, but a bit focused on the BIX.X. Wouldn't have thought YM/INDU/DIA up a tad with IBM +9%.

It takes a village ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/21/2009 11:36:29 PM

Major Global Indexes, Currencies, USO/OIX, GLD/HUI, XLF, DJUSHB and IEF Link

While not a component of the NDX/QQQQ, IBM's gains didn't hurt some of the BIG tech names today.

Keene Little : 1/21/2009 10:30:32 PM

Thursday's pivot table: Link

For Wednesday I had said SPX needs to hold the 804-805 area if the bulls were going to have a chance to drive it back above Friday's high (858). Other than a quick stab back down in the morning (just to shake the trees and nail some stops), the level held and we got a nice rally into the close. My preferred wave count calls for the rally to continue on up to a target price near 870 and then turn back down to break today's low. SPX 60-min chart: Link

If the market breaks down right away on Thursday then we could see selling accelerate but as of now I do not see that happening. However, a break below 811 would have me turning more immediately bearish. If the bulls really take charge and rally SPX above 870 it would bring the top of the triangle pattern into play, currently near 930 and above that would mean a likely move up the 990-1000 area by mid February. The different possibilities, and key levels, are shown on the daily chart: Link

OI Technical Staff : 1/21/2009 9:59:59 PM

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