Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 9:57:53 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

CLOSED out the 1/8 CDE position at $0.80 as silver looked a little heavy and may pull back to SLV $11.50 equivalent near-term. CDE maybe $0.67-ish.

Traded YM short from 8,141 to 8,117 (+24)
In this evening's extended, traded YM long 8,174, but was stopped at 8,175 (+1)

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 9:52:43 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 9:52:16 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 8:14:39 PM

"in the zone"

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 8:14:28 PM

YM 8,168 ... going to get some din-din.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 8:14:03 PM

YM 5-minute montage Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 8:10:44 PM

XLF's extended session high tonight was $9.60.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 8:05:13 PM

UYG last tick $3.62 ... YM 8,170 now

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 8:02:45 PM

GE $12.73 to its extended close.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 8:01:53 PM

YM 8,164

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 8:01:09 PM

Sold long partial UYG at the offer of $3.62.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 7:57:34 PM

UYG $3.61 x $0.62

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 7:49:48 PM

See that "dip" to $3.50? That looks like a "stop run." Somebody stick out a STOP at $3.52, or $3.51, or $3.50. Market maker sees it, may sure it got filled. REAL easy in an extended when few are around.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 7:47:27 PM

Where do ya think UYG will finish? $3.55?

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 7:45:28 PM

Asian Markets: opening ... Link

$NIKK up 33, or 0.41% at 8,094

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 7:43:52 PM

YM 8,178

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 7:43:37 PM

Tough profiles in an extended ... so light volume.

Like playing 5-card draw with your clothes off in the cold

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 7:43:06 PM

UYG $3.59 x .60

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 7:42:32 PM

YM long stop alert! 8,175

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 7:38:20 PM

YM 8,179 ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 7:38:03 PM

UYG $3.59 x $0.60

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 7:34:07 PM

UYG $3.58 x $3.59 ... YM 8,181

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 7:33:23 PM

UYG and YM 5-minutes ... play them "with/against" each other. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 7:27:47 PM

YM long raise stop alert! ... to 8175.

YM 8,187.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 7:19:49 PM

YM long alert! 8,174.

Stop goes 8,166. Target 8,200

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 6:45:46 PM

UYG extended and MM comments Link

"Stacked" upper 5-mrt.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 6:30:09 PM

UYG and XLF traders ... you and to the "same" upper 5-mrt. GREEN #6 on UYG is here at $3.60

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 6:21:15 PM

YM night-trader's montage 5-minute intervals Link

UPPER 5-mrt on the right.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 6:12:15 PM

YM traders ... if going to trade YM this evening, take an upper 5-mrt on the YM from that 04:50-55 bar 8,088 to 8,119. GREEN #3 right here 8,170. #4 at 8,198 (note overlap with DAILY 80.9%)

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 6:05:10 PM

YM 8,170 ... "in the zone"

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 6:04:23 PM

YM 8,161 on the 06:00 tick

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 6:03:12 PM

Cram Down ... Confirmation of a Chapter 11 Plan ... Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 5:59:20 PM

"Cram Down" (update)- .. dj- (partial) A measure to allow judges to reduce the principal amounts of mortgages for troubled borrowers in bankruptcy cleared a key hurdle Tuesday when it was approved by a U.S. House panel. The legislation, which is progressing quickly in Congress, would amount to the most aggressive step yet by the federal government to help strapped borrowers avoid foreclosure. Proponents contend it will act like a stick, spurring mortgage servicers to complete more loan modifications. Meanwhile, the banking industry warns that it will raise mortgage costs for all borrowers. The measure was approved on a 21-15 vote after its House sponsor, Judiciary Chairman John Conyers, D-Mich., agreed to changes that would narrow its scope. "While bankruptcy reform may not provide all of the answers to this crisis, surely it provides a common sense and practical approach to helping stop the spiral of home foreclosures," Conyers said in remarks before his panel. Under the legislation, borrowers would be eligible to have a bankruptcy judge reduce the principal balance on their home loan - a move known as a "cram down." Current law allows cram downs for mortgages on vacation properties, but not for those on primary residences.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 5:56:54 PM

UYG WKLY Pivot Levels (regular session derived) ... $2.32, $2.75, Piv= $3.15, $3.58, $3.98.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 5:55:49 PM

If trading UYG ... I have a "conventional" on it from $6.95 to $2.73. 19.1% at $3.53

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 5:54:33 PM

TIme 05:51:15 PM ET

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 5:53:56 PM

UYG $3.56 x $3.57

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 5:53:44 PM

ISE continues to back off and light offer at $4.14 in UYG.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 5:53:19 PM

YM 15-minute interval with electronic about to re-open at 06:00 PM ET Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 5:46:10 PM

Not sure if that's "the news" that has sparked tonight's gains or not ... Something on CNBC regarding "new Treasury plan" too.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 5:45:27 PM

dj- US House Panel Approves "Cram Down" Mortgage Relief

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 5:26:41 PM

YM daily pivot levels for Wednesday (regular session derived) ... 7955, 8024, Piv= 8,100, 8169, 8245

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 5:24:42 PM

YM 8,180 alert!

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 5:23:13 PM

XLF $9.14 ... $9.50 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 5:22:14 PM

UYG $3.50 alert! ... WKLY R1 $3.78 (regular session derived)

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 5:14:29 PM

General Electric (GE) $13.06 +5.15% ... falls to $12.52 extended ... Moody's mulling possible debt downgrade.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 5:11:21 PM

UYG $3.28 +7.89% ... $3.44

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 5:10:59 PM

Financial Select SPDRs (XLF) $9.14 +3.1% ... alert! ... $9.37 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 5:09:30 PM

Newmont Mining (NEM) ... $40.10 ... Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 5:08:12 PM

dj- Al Qaeda-Linked Group Threatens Germany With Attacks

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 4:59:37 PM

Newmont to acuire remaining interest in Boddington project ... Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 4:58:37 PM

Newmont Offering ... Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 4:57:43 PM

Newmont Mining (NEM) $41.71 -3.82% ... darts lower to $40.00. To raise $1.2 billion through stock, convertible notes offering.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 4:56:33 PM

Altera (ALTR) $16.65 +4.12% ... $16.25 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 4:49:06 PM

Sun Mirco (JAVA) $3.99 +5.55% ... $4.28 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 4:48:08 PM

Bank of America (BAC) $6.50 +8.33% ... ticks $6.44 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 4:46:04 PM

Bank of America (BAC): Sells $8 billion in TLGP Bonds

Bank of America Corp. (BAC) priced $8 billion of notes in a self-led offering on Tuesday, according to IFR. The two-part deal is being sold under the FDIC's Temporary Liquidity Guarantee program, and is the second offering from the bank in as many days. Bank of America sold $5 billion of 1.5-year notes late Monday. Terms were as follows:

Amount: $6 billion
Maturity: April 30 2012
Coupon: 2.10%
Price: 99.97
Yield: 2.11%
Spread: Midswaps plus 30 basis points
Ratings: Aaa (Moody's Investors Service); AAA (Standard & Poor's)
Amount: $2 billion
Maturity: April 30 2012
Coupon: 3-month Libor plus 30 basis points
Price: Par
Yield: 3-month Libor plus 30 basis points
Ratings: Aaa (Moody's Investors Service); AAA (Standard & Poor's)

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 4:42:52 PM

CSCO finished $16.73 +2.63% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 4:42:21 PM

Black Box (BBOX) $25.05 +4.24% ... quiet extende $24.95 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 4:36:56 PM

USO $29.50 -8.21% ... $29.56 extended

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 4:36:15 PM

dj- Oil moves slightly higher as API shows small oil stockpile build

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 4:30:47 PM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $11.34 +1.52% ... $11.51 extended on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 4:29:33 PM

RUT.X 455.58 +1.22% ... does close above 452-ish. Link

IWM $45.38 +1.09% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 4:22:53 PM

INDU 8,174.81 +0.72% ... Daily intervals with your (regular session derived) QUARTERLY Pivot retracement (dark green) and MONTHLY (dark purple) Link

YM traders should know where you are within the regular session derived pivot levels.

Primary reason we see some "late selling" Friday, Monday and today I think is some "hedge the cash" overnight and shorting of the YM.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 4:13:51 PM

YM 8,114

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 4:12:49 PM

Still see last 15-minutes find a decline to and then after the cash close.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 4:11:29 PM

YM's 04:00 tick was 8,124

Keene Little : 1/27/2009 4:10:47 PM

Within the bounce pattern from Monday afternoon, the 2nd a-b-c bounce that I have labeled on the chart (starting from this afternoon's low, would achieve equality at 854.86 which is right on top of the larger price projection from Monday. That's the first level I'll be looking for a short play to set up.

Keene Little : 1/27/2009 4:08:47 PM

The slow grind continues (at a pace of 1.50 SPX points per hour). Tomorrow still looks good for a little higher and now the bounce pattern has developed a potential rising wedge within the larger rising wedge. The two upside Fib projections for tomorrow morning are 853.85 and 862.54 as shown on the SPX 10-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 3:59:14 PM

SLV $11.81 -0.75% ... may pull back to the 11.50 breakout.

Oil in the balance ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 3:57:24 PM

Swing trade long exit alert! ... for the 1/8 position in shares of Coeur D' Alene Mines (CDE) at the bid of $0.80.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 3:48:32 PM

If the NYSE and NASDAQ a/d lines hold up into the close, we should get inflection lows for the 10-day a/d ratio of 40% on 01/23/09 and 3-box reversals back higher. NYSE currently 48% and NASDAQ 47%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 3:34:05 PM

WFC finished $23.80 on 01/12/09

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 3:31:44 PM

XLF chart from 01/12/09 wrap Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 3:29:56 PM

Wells Fargo (WFC) $16.22 +4.78% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 3:27:53 PM

XLF $9.13 +3.39% ... has been stubborn today. Session low 2-cents below MONTHLY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 3:25:20 PM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,107.70 +1.68% Link ... several "dojis" over time. As majors look to be "flat," keep an eye on this one going forward.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 3:21:52 PM

Be al_rt ... be very, very al_rt.

Keene Little : 1/27/2009 3:19:20 PM

SPX has rallied 9 points in a little less than 6 hours so far. That's 1.50 points per hour. If SPX is to reach 865-866 for a high for this leg up we should take another 13 hours so we should get there by the end of the day on Thursday. Ugh, wake me when we get there.

Jane Fox : 1/27/2009 2:44:26 PM

Crude is now down $3.50 and there is a very good chance this market will make another new yearly low before it rallies.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 2:37:28 PM

Biiiig volume in the USO $29.37 -8.61% last hour.

Keene Little : 1/27/2009 2:29:55 PM

The DOW, NDX and RUT can tolerate a little more of a drop before breaking their uptrend lines from Friday and therefore a break by SPX may need confirmation of the others before it turns more bearish. SPX could be the heads up for a breakdown but it could also be a head fake break. Stay a little cautious about a minor break if watching just SPX.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 2:18:27 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/27/2009 2:14:51 PM

SPX has dropped back down near its uptrend line from Friday, which sits at about 840.60 at the moment. ES came down and tagged its uptrend line at 837.25. It's still holding but I'm watching closely to see if continues to hold or not.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 2:12:04 PM

SPX 842.29 +0.68% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 2:11:47 PM

DJUSHB 199.17 -3.21% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 2:11:28 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down 11.4 bp @ 2.529% and slips back under its WKLY Pivot.

Keene Little : 1/27/2009 2:01:14 PM

Bonds are rallying pretty good today and that could put a little more pressure on stocks.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 1:28:00 PM

Remain long the IWM-BR

Keene Little : 1/27/2009 1:26:49 PM

The way this market has been rallying since Friday, including today, there's little doubt in my mind that the bounce is going to fail. The only question in my mind is whether it will first make it up to SPX 865-866 before failing. It's why I'm suggesting just follow the uptrend line and when it breaks get short (being careful of a minor head-fake break. If I like the pattern of a top I will also be suggesting a short of the high when it sets up.

Keene Little : 1/27/2009 1:14:43 PM

It continues to be a slow agonizing climb higher. The uptrend line from Friday morning through yesterday afternoon's low is now nearing SPX 839 so the bulls still have a little wiggle room here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 1:09:18 PM

YM short target alert! 8,117

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 12:57:01 PM

Time stamp ... 12:53:45

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 12:56:21 PM

YM short ... stop goes 8,165. Target 8,117

Jane Fox : 1/27/2009 12:56:20 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The New York Federal Reserve announced Tuesday that it has selected William Dudley, a key architect of its unconventional monetary policy, as its new president.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 12:54:01 PM

YM short alert! 8,141

Jane Fox : 1/27/2009 12:52:16 PM

Crude is down $2.10 today in anticipation tomorrow's data will show Crude inventories climbing for a 5th straight week. Last week the inventory reserves reached the highest level in 17 months. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 12:35:26 PM

$RVX.X 50.30 -5.71% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 12:35:05 PM

VXN.X 43.02 -4.40% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 12:34:46 PM

VXO.X 40.71 -7.45% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 12:34:30 PM

VIX.X 42.51 -6.95% ...

Jane Fox : 1/27/2009 12:34:08 PM

Finally we are getting a direction and it is up. The bulls are pulling ahead. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 12:34:05 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,727/878

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 12:33:54 PM

NYSE a/d 1,995/834

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 12:33:35 PM

Biiig level(s) here for BULLS and BEARS.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 12:33:09 PM

YM 8,164 alert!

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 12:32:20 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $17.90 +4.43% ... WKLY R1 held lunch-time support.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 12:23:56 PM

IBM $91.72 +0.13% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 12:22:50 PM

HMO Index (HMO.X) alert! 1,108.52 +3.80% ... 2009 YTD high.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 12:22:00 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/27/2009 12:03:02 PM

Updating the SPX 60-min chart shows the new key level for a breakdown at 835, just below this morning's pullback low. A bounce that fails to get back above yesterday's high near 853 followed by a break below 835 would be a sell signal. In the meantime I continue to like the possibility for a move higher today up to an upside target of 865-866. Just keep pulling your stop up if you're playing this bounce from the long side. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 12:01:31 PM

YM 8,127 now ... At MM 10:59:30 I thought certain YM would dilly dally around the DAILY Pivot for 1/2 hour before kicking higher.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 11:58:12 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $30.55 -4.94% ... bears tentative after nearing Friday's "suspicious" bid point. (see weekend's MM)

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 11:46:52 AM

dj- Bank of Mexico's Ortiz: Sees 2009 GDP -0.8% to -1.8%

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 11:45:28 AM

iShares Silver Trust (SLV) $12.03 +1.09% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 11:45:04 AM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $88.65 -0.33% ... ~$886.50 spot.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 11:44:32 AM

dj- Bank of Mexico Raises Q1 Inflation Outlook to 5.75%-6.25%

Keene Little : 1/27/2009 11:43:51 AM

Gold and silver update: yesterday I had recommended a short play in gold and silver as both had hit resistance. The pullback since yesterday's high looks like a correction (3-wave move) and that suggests they'll both move higher still. I like the idea of shorting silver better than gold because silver is affected much more by a slowing economy (it's more of an industrial metal than a precious metal).

The daily chart of SLV show a little more upside potential to the top of its bear flag that it's been in since the October low. That's currently near 12.30: Link . The top of a shorter-term up-channel for the leg up from the January 15th low is currently near 12.38 by the end of the day. I don't know if it will make it up to the 12.30-12.40 area but it would be my next place to look for a short play (or if it breaks below 11.00). 60-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 11:36:03 AM

Cell Therapeutics (CTIC) $0.11 +57.14% ... NO stop. Target(s) are $0.60 (250 shares) and $2.00 (250 shares).

Keene Little : 1/27/2009 11:27:37 AM

The bulls are holding on even though it's not a pretty rally. The mid-morning lows are now important levels--if they break then the bulls are in trouble.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 11:27:25 AM

Du Pont (DD) $22.91 -1.16% ... Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 11:25:56 AM

Cell Therapeutics' Pixantrone Pre-NDA Communication from FDA ... Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 11:23:58 AM

Swing trade SPECULATIVE long alert! ... for 500 shares of Cell Therapeutics (CTIC) at a LIMIT price of $0.11 ($0.1099 x $0.11) for my MM $10K account.

CTIC $0.11 +57.14% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 11:09:43 AM

CV Therapeutics (CVTX) $16.20 +42.73% ... Higher after Japan's Astellas Pharma offered $1 billion to acquire the company. Offer values CTVX at roughly $16.00/share.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 10:59:48 AM

INDU 8,113

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 10:59:39 AM

YM 8,064 ... DAILY Pivot

Keene Little : 1/27/2009 10:44:04 AM

From a present conditions reading near 190 in 2000 to a reading today of 29.9 that's one heck of a drop in consumer sentiment. Fearful people are not optimistic and bullish people and that has of course translated into a down market. The chart of consumer sentiment is not pretty: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 10:30:46 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 10:22:50 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/27/2009 10:21:44 AM

The SPX 10-min chart shows a closer view of the boundaries of the rising wedge pattern and the two uptrend lines from Friday morning that may have some influence on price behavior: Link

Keene Little : 1/27/2009 10:13:18 AM

I think for the bulls the most important short-term trend line right now is the uptrend line from Friday morning, currently near 833. If that breaks then the rising wedge pattern I showed on the 60-min chart will be busted and that would be potentially more immediately bearish. As I mentioned this morning, if we do see a rally today it's going to be a choppy one.

Jane Fox : 1/27/2009 10:10:58 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Consumer confidence hit a record low in January, according to the monthly Conference Board index reported Tuesday, as worries worsened about future income. The January consumer confidence index fell to 37.7 from an upwardly revised 38.6 in December. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected a January reading of 38. "It appears that consumers have begun the new year with the same degree of pessimism that they exhibited in the final months of 2008," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center. "Looking ahead, consumers remain quite pessimistic about the state of the economy and about their earnings."

Keene Little : 1/27/2009 10:09:43 AM

SPX broke that line right after I posted my comment.

Keene Little : 1/27/2009 10:09:17 AM

This morning's rally for SPX broke its downtrend line from yesterday morning and is now pulling back to it (near 839) so watch to see if it holds as support now.

Keene Little : 1/27/2009 10:03:32 AM

Yesterday I showed a 60-min chart of USO ( Link ) and pointed out the fact that the bounce off last week's low was so far only a 3-wave (corrective) bounce and that a drop back below 31 would leave it that way. That's what has happened this morning so the larger pattern remains bearish.

At this point USO bulls can hope for support near 30.43 which would be two equal legs down from yesterday's high and that's right on top of the 62% retracement of the rally from last week. It's possible USO will get another leg up as part of a larger correction but that's only a guess at this point. It's equally likely now that USO will drop down to a new low. Updated 60-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 9:58:36 AM

QQQQ $29.41 +1.03% ... 50-day SMA marks today's low so far $29.13.

Keene Little : 1/27/2009 9:51:51 AM

In case this just chops its way higher and we get a shakeout move back down, or is only going to be a bounce before the rally fails, watch for where the bounce off yesterday afternoon's low will achieve two equal legs up (SPX 848.39).

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 9:50:27 AM

iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) $45.64 +1.67% ... 50-day SMA above at $46.30.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 9:49:14 AM

iShares Japan (EWJ) $8.86 +3.62% ... trades its 50-day SMA.

Jane Fox : 1/27/2009 9:42:45 AM

Crude can't find buyers again today yet the lower low price made on January 20th also made a higher MACD low. Some day this market will rally - this is one of the few guarantees we have in the stock market, may not be much of a rally but it will rally. Link

Jane Fox : 1/27/2009 9:37:58 AM

AD line is +1091 so the bulls have the ball this morning.

Jane Fox : 1/27/2009 9:36:40 AM

Yesterday was one of the worst days in recent memory for the job sector; Caterpillar 20000 jobs lost, GM 2000 jobs lost, Sprint 8000 jobs lost, Home Depot 7000 jobs lost, IBM 2800 jobs lost, Pifzer 19000 jobs lost yet the market didn?t sell off. As a matter of fact the DOW gained 38 points. Now I agree that is nothing to write home about but the fact that it didn't lose is huge.

Turns out the stock market actually performs better when the nation's unemployment rate is higher. A study done by Ned Davis Research compared the performance of the S&P from 1948 to the unemployment rate and found the S&P annualized gain was 13.50% when the unemployment rate was 6% or higher but gained only 2.1% annualized when the rate was below 4.3%.

This of course flies in the face of reason so the what the heck is going on? First of all the study goes on to say high unemployment usually means the government is going to step in with some sort of stimulus and that usually translates into higher stock prices. Then there is the fact that employment figures are lagging and by the time the unemployment rate is peaking the economy is usually on the mend.

Notice I used the word "usually" because we are talking about averages here since 1948. That doesn?t mean that is what is going to happen today but when you are in the stock market you need to understand probabilities since there are no guarantees.

Keene Little : 1/27/2009 9:28:06 AM

We had the opposite kind of night last night to the one before. Last night's big overnight gain in the futures was largely given up into a low near 7:00 AM (about 13 ES points lost) but there's been a gallant effort to get futures back up before the open. We'll start the day with a gap up and I think the buying should continue. But I expect it to continue to be a choppy ride up, just as it has been since last week.

Jane Fox : 1/27/2009 9:20:48 AM

Here are your overnight charts. Both the Russell 2000 (TF) and the NDX (NQ) futures broke to a new ON low at approximately 4:30ET whereas the S&P (ES) and DOW (YM) futures only tagged their respective lows at that time telling me the latter pair were the strongest ON.

There was not a lot of buying or selling overnight which means there may be some left over for the intraday session and that makes for good daytrading. Link

Jane Fox : 1/27/2009 9:16:51 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Home values in 20 major U.S. cities fell at a record 18.2% in the 12 months ending in November, Standard & Poor's reported Tuesday. The Case-Shiller 20-city home price index fell 2.2% in November, with home values in all 20 cities falling at least 1%. Prices fell 3.4% in Phoenix and 3.3% in Las Vegas in November. In the past year, prices were down 33% in Phoenix, 32% in Las Vegas, and 31% in San Francisco. The best performance over the past year came in Dallas, where prices fell just 3.3%. Falling home values have helped to plunge the global financial system into chaos because of mortgage-backed securities. Home owners have lost trillions of dollars of wealth.

Jane Fox : 1/27/2009 9:09:18 AM

Case-Shiller home prices falling at record rate in Nov

Jane Fox : 1/27/2009 9:05:59 AM

Nov. Case-Shiller home prices down 18.2% in past year

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 2:50:44 AM

If long the overnight, would protect gain here. More than likely be able to pick it up again during regular session.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 2:49:40 AM

YM alert! 8,162

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 1:22:09 AM

Asian Markets: Link ... Mixed to higher. $NIKK up 338, or +4.4% at 8,020. $HSI closed Monday-Wednesday for Lunar New Year.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 1:16:10 AM

YM 15-minute interval chart (regular sessions only) Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 2:54:39 AM

YM +89 at 8,126

Overlapping Resistance Tuesday at DAILY R1 (8,155), WKLY R1 (8,162) and old downward trend.

Support zone DAILY Pivot (8,064) and MONTHLY 19.1% (8,051) see trade blotter. Overlapping Support at WKLY Pivot (8,010) and DAILY 38.2% (8,014).

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 12:54:21 AM

OEX stocks seeing a reversing higher PnF buy signal ... XOM @ $80, SLB @ $42, MS @ $19, GS @ $77, ETR @ $80, ABT @ $54

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 12:06:42 AM

Dorsey/Wright's S&P 100 Bullish % (BPOEX) reversed back up with today's action to "bear correction," seeing a net gain of 6 stocks to reversing higher point and figure buy signals.

StockCharts.com's $BPOEX Link

S&P 100 Index ($OEX) 5-point box Link

Keene Little : 1/26/2009 11:27:08 PM

Tuesday's pivot table: Link

The way the bounce pattern has developed it would be ideal if we see another rally attempt on Tuesday. I say attempt because I think it will fail just as Monday's did (although it's possible the rally will stick on Tuesday and not fail until Wednesday). Another leg up for the bounce off last Wednesday's low would complete a rising wedge as shown on the SPX 60-min chart: Link

I'm showing upside potential to about 866 which fits both a Fib projection for the leg up from last Wednesday as well as a 38% retracement of the decline from January 6th to the low on January 15th. If I've got the correct pattern that rally leg will be followed by a strong decline into early February. If however the market drops instead of rallies on Tuesday a break below 825 would be a sell signal. Again, to keep these moves in perspective, the daily chart shows how it could play out into March: Link

NDX shows the same pattern but its 60-min chart shows why I like the January 15th low as the end of the decline from January 6th and how we've had a 3-wave a-b-c bounce correction since then. The rising wedge pattern is a common pattern for the c-wave. NDX 60-min chart: Link

The upside potential for NDX is about 1215 and then a stronger decline into early February that will break the low near 1142. As with SPX, the NDX daily chart shows what I consider the higher probability move from here: Link

OI Technical Staff : 1/26/2009 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Market Monitor Archives