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Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 9:49:18 PM

Will have my MM Profiles updated by tomorrow's OPEN.

BUSY day for sure!

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 7:38:42 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 7:26:11 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 6:33:44 PM

BIX.X ... additional note is 38.2% retracement of recent 01/02/09 regular session high to 01/21/09 regular session low. 61.8% would be 113.78.

Not THAT big of a bounce ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 6:24:35 PM

UNG finished $18.42

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 6:24:14 PM

Feb Nat. Gas terminates $4.476

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 6:09:57 PM

We'll get NEW monthly pivot levels at Friday's close.

For now, IF the BIX.X were to close here, then NEXT MONTH's Pivot Levels (regular session derived) 35.26, 66.33, Piv= 103.00, 134.07, 170.74.

BIX 109 close on Friday? Then 39.12, 74.06, Piv= 106.86, 141.80, 174.60.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 6:06:41 PM

BIX.X ... Pete Pete and Repeat went to the market, Pete Pete went home, who was left at the market?

Answer: Repeat?


Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 5:46:16 PM

Sounds a bit like yesterday afternoon doesn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 5:44:19 PM

Might review 11/24/08 Market Wrap Link

11/24/08 MM Link

Review BIX.X technical action then and today as "rules change"

Oh my!

"Citigroup eyes putting risky assets in "bad bank" @ 12:23:32 AM

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 5:19:11 PM

Global Economic Calendar ... Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 5:11:15 PM

World Economic Forum Link ... a lot to get caught up on.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 4:23:27 PM

PHF finishes $4.81 +5.71% ... SEC yield based on ($0.055/mo.; $0.66/year dividend) tabulates to 13.72%.

At Thursday's close, Net Asset Value (NAV) was $4.35/share.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 4:20:15 PM

dj- Inergy LP issues $203M of 8.75% bonds to yield 11%

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 4:16:42 PM

The time tags on the MM posts are off by about 3 minutes. You've got only a couple of minutes to buy a couple of puts for tomorrow's expected move down (and get rid of them if the market bounces instead).

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 4:15:39 PM

After bouncing above and then back below its broken uptrend line from December, NDX bounced back up and closed just unter the trend line. Again, it keeps us guessing for tomorrow but I'd say it's a picture-perfect setup for a kiss goodbye. It requires an immediate down day tomorrow. NDX 60-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 4:07:32 PM

SPY $87.44 +3.44% ...

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 4:06:55 PM

I should add that I do see the possibility for a quick gap up tomorrow, maybe tagging 880, followed by a reversal. That would nail a bunch of stops before tucking tail and running away.

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 4:05:52 PM

Nothing like parking it just under the downtrend line from September--keep both sides guessing into tomorrow. Gap up above resistance and head higher or tuck tail and turn back down? We'll know soon enough. SPX 60-min chart with my guess (no surprise, I'm voting for the tuck-tail response): Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 4:02:16 PM

dj- ICI: Assets in long-term mutual funds up $3.99 billion in latest week

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 3:54:18 PM

So far the pullback from this afternoon's high looks more like a 3-wave correction and that points to a new high coming. If it's accompanied by more bearish divergence I wouldn't trust it but it may take tomorrow to start a more serious decline (which could start with a gap down, especially if we get a minor capitulation day and close near the high).

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 3:52:28 PM

Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowers Official Cash Rate 150bp to 3.50%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 3:49:03 PM

HMO.X 1069 +4.39% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 3:48:26 PM

VIX.X 40.21

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 3:48:10 PM

Swing trade put alert! ... for one (1) of the United Health UNH Feb $28 Puts (UNH-NT) at the offer of $0.70.

UNH $29.96 +3.06% Link

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 3:46:43 PM

SPX bouncing back up to its uptrend line from this morning again (and so far failing at it again).

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 3:33:07 PM

EWJ $8.92 +1.13% ... backfills 1/2 of this morning's gap higher.

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 3:31:36 PM

NDX just broke its low near 11:40 AM (1226.15) which is the corresponding key level I have for SPX near 864. So NDX is leading the way and it's down.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 3:25:16 PM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,133 +3.71% ... "doji" resolution to upside.

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 3:23:38 PM

Back up for another kiss at the broken uptrend line from this morning's first pullback (SPX 870.30). Bears want to see and hear the slap as she says "in your dreams".

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 3:21:56 PM

What the bulls want to see here is the top of the wedge pattern that I've had on the chart holds on the pullback. That trend line is near 866.40 so if that holds we could get another bounce back up to a new high into the close.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 3:21:47 PM

YRCW $3.86 +6.04% ... incredible daily interval chart.

Jane Fox : 1/28/2009 3:19:50 PM

This is probably a very good spot for SPX to take a breather and retrace and where that retraces ends will tell us whole lot. If it retraces and closes below 800 the bears win but if it makes a higher low, reverses and breaks back above today's high the bulls take the reins. Link

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 3:17:43 PM

SPX broke its uptrend line along today's lows, bounced back up for a quick peck on the cheek and is now dropping lower. Sell signal followed by another sell signal. It could be just a head fake and we get some "intervention" that mashes it back to the upside for the close but at this point I like the downside potential.

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 3:12:58 PM

Another very good use of momentum oscillators is as an advance warning about a trend change. If I'm correct in my call for a top to the bounce from the January lows we should soon see the uptrend lines for MACD and RSI break. If those uptrend lines hold then we're going higher. If the uptrend lines break price could still proceed to a new high but you can bet the new high won't hold (and is usually associated with a retest of the broken uptrend line on the oscillator). For now all uptrend lines are holding. SPX 60-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 3:12:26 PM

RUT.X 469.35 +3.02% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 3:12:08 PM

IWM $46.81 +3.15% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 3:11:42 PM

dj- Rangel: Would consider more small business relief in stimulus bill

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 3:04:03 PM

NASDAQ a/d 2,134/618

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 3:03:51 PM

NYSE a/d 2,476/370

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 3:02:06 PM

YCS $21.38 x $21.49

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 3:01:51 PM

FXY $110.03 -1.67% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 3:01:20 PM

Best short on the board might be the yen.

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 3:00:19 PM

Jane mentioned earlier (12:38) that it's bullish when you see MACD dropping while price runs sideways and she's absolutely right. Think of MACD "resetting" itself as it drops back down to the zero line (it's why it's a buy signal when MACD turns back up from the zero line and a sell signal when it turns back down after moving up out of oversold to the zero line).

But when you get a new price high without a concurrent new high in MACD then it's negative (bearish) divergence and that's what we had at this afternoon's new high. There's nothing that says we can't get another new high with another bearish divergence but it's your warning shot across the bow that the buying is losing momentum and be ready for at least a larger pullback. SPX 10-min chart: Link

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 2:46:09 PM

Correction to my last post (I was looking at my ES chart). The numbers for SPX are 869 for its uptrend line from this morning's first pullback and then confirmation of a high with a break down below 864.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 2:45:00 PM

BIX.X 96.09 +18.42% ... session high a tad shy of MONTHLY S2 (regular session derived)

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 2:40:31 PM

Once above, not two below. Once above, not two below.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 2:39:29 PM

After a 5-minute close ABOVE GREEN #4, first sign of any intra-day weakness a clobe BELOW GREEN #2.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 2:38:25 PM

UYG $3.89 +18.23% ... after direct hit of WKLY R2 (regular session derived) see last night's MM>

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 2:36:51 PM

A break below 865 would be a break below today's uptrend line along the lows. Below 860 would be confirmation we've seen the high for the day.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 2:36:25 PM

DRG.X -0.09% ... slips back red.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 2:27:07 PM

HUI.X 292.11 -1.21% ... only sector showing red.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 2:26:01 PM

INDU 8,403

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 2:25:50 PM

YM 8,350 alert!

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 2:23:07 PM

We got the small pullback and now new post-FOMC high. Be careful now--this counts well as the possible completion of today's rally.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 2:22:54 PM

UGY $3.94 ... green #4

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 2:21:41 PM

XLF $10.24 +12.03% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 2:21:04 PM

NYSE 5,499.69

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 2:20:49 PM

TRIN 0.96 alert!

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 2:18:42 PM

SPX 874.46 +3.39% ...

Jane Fox : 1/28/2009 2:11:14 PM

I see the TRIN now moving to new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 1/28/2009 2:08:38 PM

The tajectory of the AD volume is all you need to look at to see who is winning today. Then a quick glance at the AD ratio of 6.74 supports that viewpoint. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 2:08:14 PM

UYG $3.91 +18.84% ...

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 2:07:58 PM

The very short-term pattern looks like it could use a small consolidation followed by another push higher so at this point my best guess is a post-FOMC new high followed by a selloff. That and $2.50 will get you a nice cup of coffee.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 2:07:54 PM

XLF $10.23 +11.92% ... reclaims MONTHLY 19.1% (regular session derived).

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 2:04:18 PM

TRIN incredible ... 1.07 still .... little moved.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 2:02:25 PM

01:53 Market Watch USO 120-minute Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 1:58:58 PM

SCO $33.14 -4.38% ... remember this trade.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 1:58:32 PM

UCO $11.02

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 1:55:03 PM

IWM $47.25

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 1:54:42 PM

RUT.X alert! 472.99 ... M Pivot (regular session derived)

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 1:54:09 PM

UGA $22.34 +5.22% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 1:53:51 PM

PBR $26.94 +10.31% ... PBR-PK $1.65 x $1.75

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 1:53:01 PM

Swing trade call alert! ... for one (1) of the US Oil Fund USO April $31 Calls (UBO-DE) at the offer of $3.80.

USO $30.19 +2.61% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 1:49:10 PM

GILD +4.23% 20-day Net%
AMGN -7.45% 20-day Net%
GENZ +6.88% 20-day Net%
CELG +2.52% 20-day Net%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 1:47:31 PM

NDX.X 1,238.53 ... still down 1.11% 20-day Net%.

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 1:47:01 PM

Bonds have dropped back down in the last 30 minutes and that's probably giving a little boost to stocks. The bond market seems to be showing a little fear about what the Fed might say (something that may scare bond holders into thinking yields will head higher).

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 1:47:00 PM

Biotechnology Index (BTX.X) 656.58 +1.77% ... 20-day Net% inches green.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 1:43:22 PM

XLF $10.15 after session high of $10.20

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 1:42:48 PM

CBOE $3.82 and $3.95

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 1:42:11 PM

UYG $3.89 +18.23% ... takes another look at GREEN #3.

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 1:40:06 PM

SPX is now getting very close to its downtrend line from September, near 875-876.

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 1:36:54 PM

It's looking like the shorts are more nervous in front of FOMC than the bulls. From a contrarian perspective this would make me a nervous bull.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 1:31:15 PM

At 01/21/09 close VXN.X was starting to reverse from a "spike" high 55.59 at 47.35. The technical strength of the NDX/QQQQ relative to other major indexes a "good" place to sell OUT-THE-MONEY near-term puts.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 1:28:40 PM

VXN.X 40.54 -5.93% ... speaking of premiums

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 1:27:57 PM

QAV-NZ should go "poof" at expiration.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 1:27:08 PM

NDX.X 1,233.10 +3.23% ... is above its MONTHLY Pivot (regular session derived).

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 1:12:01 PM

HMO Index (HMO.X) 1,085.25 +5.97% ... Alert! Retraces 50% of 08/11/08 relative high to recent 11/21/08 low.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 1:07:24 PM

Various Feb "Max Pain" benchmarks at Friday's tabulation. Current trade in last 5-minutes Link

Jane Fox : 1/28/2009 1:06:20 PM

Both the Russell 2000 and NDX futures are trading above their respective ON ranges however the S&P and DOW are not. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 12:58:47 PM

On 12/08/08 the RVX.X finished 68.31.

Some mentioned ULX-DY's finished $3.00 x $3.50.

IWM finished $48.14.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 12:55:41 PM

ULX-DY $0.60 x $0.80 ... as an example.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 12:54:34 PM

RVX.X 47.37 -6.43% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 12:54:13 PM

RUT.X 470.31 +3.23% ... MONTHLY Pivot just ahead at 472.90 (regular session derived).

Selling Feb, but legging out to March on much lower premiums today.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 12:53:09 PM

Swing trade call exit alert! ... for the one (1) iShares Russell-2000 IWM Feb $44 Call (IWM-BR) at the bid of $4.00.

IWM $47.02 +3.61% ...

Jane Fox : 1/28/2009 12:38:15 PM

Here is a picture perfect example of when a bearish MACD divergence is indeed bullish. Notice how price is moving sideways but MACD is moving down. Most technicians would call this a bearish divergence because MACD should be at least following price the only problem is MACD does not do sideways it has to move either up or down and in this case when it moves down as price moves sideways it means the bulls are winning. Link

Jane Fox : 1/28/2009 12:33:31 PM

This is a picture of the bulls winning but taking a break, I imagine until at least 2:15. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 12:31:04 PM

UYG and XLF 5-minute intervals (XLF is WEEKLY and MONTHLY pivot retracement regular session derived) and UGY is "all market participants" pulse with 5-mrt Link

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 12:30:40 PM

A Fib projection for an a-b-c bounce off the low on January 15th for NDX is at 1235.73 where wave-c would equal 162% of wave-a. NDX has now retraced 62% of its January 6-15 decline (1230.97). And it is now close to tagging its broken uptrend line from early December (price had been consolidating above it for all of December) near 1232. So there's a resistance band between 1230-1236 and NDX is there. NDX 60-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 12:21:32 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 12:18:30 PM

It's looking like the market may just get put on hold until the FOMC announcement, which begs the question--what does the market think the Fed can do or say at this point? Boggles the mind.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 12:07:20 PM

UYG traders ... slap an UPPER 5-mrt on the UYG's first 5-minute bar (regular session). Check it out!

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 11:52:47 AM

UGA 1/2 position short .... stop goes $23.05. Target $17.75

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 11:51:06 AM

Swing trade short alert! ... for 1/2 position in the US Gasoline Fund (UGA) at the bid of $21.40.

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 11:49:42 AM

SPX back below 863 would again be a sell signal--the current top of its wedge.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 11:32:33 AM

XLF $10.18 +11.37% ... trades MONTHLY 19.1%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 11:30:26 AM

Wells Fargo (WFC) $20.42 +26.06% ... back on a "buy signal" @ $17.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 11:22:55 AM

RUT.X 468.18 +2.76% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 11:16:19 AM

Disclosure: I currently hold bullish position(s) in IWM and like security.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 11:15:52 AM

Swing trade call option alert! ... for one (1) if the iShares Russell 2000 IWM Mar. $47 Calls (IWM-CU) at the offer of $3.00.

IWM $46.83 +3.19% ...

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 11:12:02 AM

ES would also close a gap down on January 14th at 868.50. Could be an interesting setup there...

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 11:09:54 AM

I mentioned a rally above SPX 875 would have me backing off on looking for a short but I just noticed the downtrend line from Sept through the January 6th high (only two points and therefore a trend line that has not been tested) is currently near 877 so it's entirely possible we'll see that trend line tested. For ES that downtrend line is closer--near 868 so only about 4 points higher which could have SPX tagging its Fib projection near 870. I'd have to see SPX above 870 before thinking it could run on up to 877 to test its downtrend line. In the meantime any drop back below this morning's pullback low near 860 would confirm we've seen the high, at least for now.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 11:08:55 AM

RVX.X 47.43 -6.32% ... nearing WKLY S2 (regular session derived) and correlative 150-day SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 11:08:17 AM

RUT.X 466.99 +2.50% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 11:07:53 AM

IWM-BR $3.70 x $3.80

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 11:07:11 AM

IWM $46.65 +2.79% ... while not all components debt would be rated "junk," action in PHF viewed positive for group.

Jane Fox : 1/28/2009 11:06:25 AM

Crude is making another move downward today on the heels of the inventory report. Down $1.01. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 11:06:11 AM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) alert! $4.68 +2.85% ... trades above its 01/07/09 Santa Claus rally high.

Jane Fox : 1/28/2009 11:01:20 AM

Here is how I am reading the SPX chart. This market found support at 800 (that is very obvious) and could bounce all the way back to resistance at 943 but I don?t imagine it will be a straight road upwards, not like the straight road it took down because the bears are obviously stronger these days. The upwards climb will be choppy and when it falters and retraces IF it makes a higher low then the chances of it hitting resistance becomes all the more probable. However, if the SPX makes a lower high (falters) and then confirms it with a lower low (breaks support at 800) chances of it climbing back to 943 becomes much much less. Link

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 10:48:43 AM

I've relabeled the wave count for the move up from Monday afternoon to something that makes a little more sense at the moment. The Fib projections for the move are also lining up, first in the 866-867 area and then slightly higher near 870. If SPX rallies much above 870, and especially above 875, I'd back off on trying to look for a short entry and watch instead. The closer we get to FOMC announcement the riskier an entry will become. Updated SPX 10-min chart: Link

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 10:39:30 AM

SPX has now tagged its 50-dma.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 10:39:22 AM

CNBC saying 20% of perentage gainers in SPX are financials ....

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 10:37:22 AM

SPX is pushing back up as well (I'm watching ES to see if it's going to retest its pre-market high, which will result in a minor new high for cash). Any bearish divergences between this morning's first high and a subsequent high now would be the next signal to attempt a short play. It could take a couple of attempts.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 10:36:50 AM

Refiners cut back running at 82.5% vs. 83.3% weeg ago

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 10:36:15 AM

Total distillate -1.0 million at 144.0 million

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 10:35:48 AM

Total gasoline -100,000 barrels to 219.9 million

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 10:35:19 AM

Crude stockpiles +6.2 million to 338.9

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 10:35:16 AM

Crude stockpiles +6.2 million to 338.9

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 10:35:08 AM

NDX has also reached the top of its rising wedge (and a previous support level and now potentially resistance near 1218). The setup is the same and any drop back down today would create a sell signal. But so far it's holding (another reason to keep an eye on GOOG). NDX 60-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 10:34:23 AM

Biiiig build in oil stockpiles ...

Gasoline slight draw

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 10:28:47 AM

10:23 AM Market Watch Link

Can quickly use High/Low to make notes in your pivot matrix. See who is where.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 10:23:58 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 10:21:15 AM

SPX is back up to the underside of the top of its rising wedge, near 862, so a failure from here would be a kiss goodbye.

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 10:18:00 AM

I was looking over GOOG last night as one of the generals to keep an eye on. It stopped yesterday at its downtrend line from June 2008 and therefore this morning's gap up is a bullish move. If GOOG manages to push higher today then I suspect the broader market will as well, so it's definitely worth watching.

The previous 4th wave in the move down from last April formed a triangle and the apex of that triangle is near 353. These lines often act as S/R so watch that level if reached. Slightly higher is the top of its bear flag for price action since its November low, currently near 357. And then just above that, near 365, is the projection where the move up from November would have two equal legs up. After this bounce leg is finished I have little doubt it will then head back down for new lows into March. GOOG daily chart: Link

Jane Fox : 1/28/2009 10:05:55 AM

Internals are bullish and I suspect will remain so until the FOMC announcement. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 10:03:19 AM

NDX/QQQQ Heavyweights (weighting as of 01/21/09) Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 9:59:31 AM

IBM $92.46 +0.93% ...

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 9:58:45 AM

OK, there's the first sell signal from SPX as it drops below the top of the wedge.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 9:58:25 AM

Google (GOOG) $341.23 +2.94% alert! ... Above Santa Clau rally high of 01/06/09.

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 9:57:24 AM

Bonds are also now rallying a little so bonds are not going to help give the stock market a boost this morning. They're on their own.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 9:57:18 AM

Continue to this point to receive some upside al_rts I've had said. Many at the open, but further here gives me the observation some strength building.

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 9:56:22 AM

The little pullback in SPX held at the top of its wedge so that's bullish so far.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 9:54:10 AM

European Markets: Link ... Mostly higher in the latter half of the session. $FTSE +101, or 2.42% at 4,295. Link (session high has been 4,315.56 so gets back on a "buy signal". Link

$DAX Link Link

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 9:43:56 AM

SPX has now done a throw-over above the top of its rising wedge (typically happens on a news-related move) so a drop back below the top of the wedge, at 862, would be a sell signal. The stop on a short play would have to be at a new daily high (keep it tight).

Jane Fox : 1/28/2009 9:43:23 AM

Crude is doing the traffic light thing - red, green, red, green. Link

Jane Fox : 1/28/2009 9:42:20 AM

DOW is up +144, SPX up +19.40

Jane Fox : 1/28/2009 9:40:38 AM

VIX is spiking all over the place so I will not be able to use it until it settles down.

Jane Fox : 1/28/2009 9:39:36 AM

AD line is a very healthy +2010.

Jane Fox : 1/28/2009 9:29:45 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The world's economy is expected grow at the slowest pace since World War II in 2009, the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday, as it once again sharply marked down its forecasts for the global economy.

The economy is now expected to grow 0.5% in 2009 and to slowly rebound to 3% in 2010, as measured by purchasing power, the IMF said in an update to its World Economic Outlook. The IMF has updated the outlook twice since October. In November, the IMF projected global growth of 2.2%. In October, it forecast growth of 3%.

"The outlook is highly uncertain and timing and pace of the recovery depend critically on strong policy actions," the IMF said. Risks of deflation in advanced economies is rising.

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 9:28:08 AM

Bonds barely moved during the overnight session so there's been no correlating move in them to match the huge run up in equity futures.

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 9:27:19 AM

It certainly looks like we've got another one of those bank-inspired rallies about to start this morning. But is it short covering overnight (hedging) or will it stick? Hope for a real fix can be very powerful when the mood has been so sour. We'll get an early test of potential resistance and in fact ES has nearly tagged its 50-dma at 864.50 (high so far is 863.75). The 50-dma rarely acts as an electric fence though and is often penetrated, even on a closing basis.

As mentioned last night, SPX's 50-dma is near 867. Rather than an immediate gap n crap (possible) I'm hoping we'll see a big gap up, consolidate for a bit, push marginally higher and then fail. It would be an easier setup to try a short play. But do stay aware of the potential for a gap n crap--many players may rejoice at the opportunity to unload some inventory.

If the Fed is going to the drastic measure of giving the banks essentially an IOU for bad debt (instead of cash and also requiring bank stock in return) it means the Fed remains very scared of the banking system. Fear of what they might say at today's FOMC announcement could spark fear and selling before the announcement.

Jane Fox : 1/28/2009 9:19:14 AM

The overnight session was bullish and all major equity indexes are trading well above their respective previous day ranges. With this kind of move overnight and the FOMC statement looming at 2:15ET I suspect the intraday session will be a huge yawner, until 2:15 that is then we will see the fireworks. Although we need a caveat here as well, the FOMC statement may be a huge yawner (compared to previous announcements) because the FED cannot lower rates anymore and for sure it is not going to raise them so the decision is almost a fait accompli. Link

Jane Fox : 1/28/2009 9:12:33 AM

NPR.org, January 28, 2009 - The $825 billion economic stimulus package will be up for a vote in the House on Wednesday, as lawmakers decide the fate of the measure intended as a cornerstone of President Obama's efforts to revive the nation's deteriorating economy.

While the plan appeared to have the support of most of the Democrat-dominated House, top Republicans remained unconvinced. They have repeatedly expressed skepticism about the huge amount of domestic spending and what they see as insufficient tax cuts in the deal.

The House measure includes about $550 billion in spending and roughly $275 billion in tax cuts.

Much of the spending would be for items such as health care, jobless benefits, food stamps and other programs that benefit victims of the downturn.

House Republican Leader John Boehner said the bill contains spending that "has nothing to do with creating jobs or preserving jobs." He has instructed GOP members to oppose it.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 1:32:32 AM

Might be Keene ... that last two "failures" getting some test this evening. (wink)

Tough market for sure.

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 1:28:24 AM

$BPNYA (roughly 3,000 PnF charts) Link

$BPCOMPQ (roughly 3,000 PnF charts) Link

$BPSPX (500 PnF charts) Link

$BPNDX (100 PnF charts) Link

$BPINDU (just 30 PnF charts, each worth 3.33%, so not very broad observation) Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 1:24:40 AM

No measurable action in Dorsey/Wright's major market bullish %. BPOEX did add another to 50%, so "X" would get the square up to 50%. StockCharts.com's $BPOEX Link .

Table I track Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 1:09:44 AM

ES +16.75 at 856

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 1:07:18 AM

YM +128 at 8,221

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 12:06:58 AM

Actually I should add that there is upside potential for a rally that does a throw-over above the rising wedge pattern to see SPX tag its 50-dma just above 867 and possibly a little higher than that. A strong rally early tomorrow that fails at resistance and closes back down near the low would leave a very bearish looking shooting star. But I'm getting ahead of myself (smile).

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 12:03:44 AM

Wednesday's pivot table: Link

At the end of the day I posted a 10-min SPX chart to show the rising wedge pattern for price action since the January 20 low and another smaller rising wedge for the push higher since Monday afternoon: Link

The top of the smaller rising wedge matches a Fib projection near 854 (which is also where the move up from Tuesday afternoon would have two equal legs up) and I was thinking that would be a good setup for the 1st attempt to short this bounce with the expectation that we're going to see a strong decline into early February.

As of this evening equity futures are up very strong with ES +17.50 at a high so far of 856.75 (and doesn't look to be done). That would have SPX up around 859-860. Who knows where the futures will be Wednesday morning but even a retest of the overnight high would have SPX getting closer to its higher Fib projection near 862 and the top of the larger rising wedge pattern. So I think that's where this is going.

The next big move after this bounce completes (assuming it doesn't rally above 866) will be a drop below 800 relatively quickly, as shown on the 60-min chart, so I'll be looking to short it up there (862-865) as I like the risk:reward ratio: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 10:26:15 PM

Fair Value for the INDU will be -44.79.

SPX -3.36

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 10:25:20 PM

Here it is ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 10:24:41 PM

OK ... with that YM trade at 8,220, those of you using the WKLY Pivot Retracement (regular session derived) on the INDU/DIA now KNOW WHERE the INDU/DIA MIGHT be able to trade in tomorrow's CASH session.

I don't yet have tomorrow's INDU fair value and we could use that too.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 10:13:51 PM

"Once above, NOT 2 below" ... "Once above, NOT 2 below"...

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 10:13:16 PM

YM Green #5 8,219

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 10:05:08 PM

YM 8,200 alert! (see YM MM 07:19:49 PM)

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2009 10:04:55 PM

Good grrravy ... "trade it already" .... YM 8,199

OI Technical Staff : 1/27/2009 9:59:59 PM

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