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Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 7:32:35 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 5:57:23 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 5:17:53 PM

Qualcomm (QCOM) $35.13 -4.58% Link ... finished off the low of $33.77.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 5:15:52 PM

Tough one for sure Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 5:14:45 PM

Several days ago AMZN said holiday sales were "best ever" and there was great question as to the validity of such comment.

At a minimum here tonight, I've got to think there were some that bet against the stock.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 5:12:02 PM

AMZN ... $56.00 ... has been GREEN #6 to the penny.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 5:09:06 PM

Listening to CNBC and discussion of VIX.X action today DESPITE some "sharp" giveback. Understand that QRTRLY 38.2%. And WKLY S1 for now.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 5:06:30 PM

RKH $52.64 ... IF we were to close here tomorrow, MONTHLY Pivot Levels would now be $21.59, $36.88, Piv= $56.92, $72.21, $92.25

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 4:46:25 PM

IWM-CU traders. We've got one (1) UNH-NT and a 1/4 short RKH right now.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 4:43:12 PM

SPX/SPY traders ... both closed ALMOST EXACTLY ON THE BUTTON of Tuesday's close.

VIX.X finishes slightly MORE.

ANY CALL OPTIONS purchased at/near TUESDAY's close should be "even" at worse (I would thing, I didn't not price them out).

IF you feel you have to do something, you have MANY options available to you.

You have ProShare inverse bull, you have ProShare 200-x inverse bull.

VIX.X finished 42.63, and that's just below your QUARTERLY 38.2% of 43.66.

SPX finished 845.14.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 4:17:59 PM

AMZN's WKLY Pivot levels (RSD) are $46.73, $48.66, Piv= $50.18, $52.12, $53.63

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 4:15:58 PM

If "short, stop above the high" ... use some of the stuff from Tuesday evening's session to get things squared up.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 4:14:55 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $50.00 -0.71% ... jumps to $53.52 on headline numbers.

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 4:09:02 PM

You only need to put the VIX's swing highs and lows into context with previous swing highs and lows made intraday. Trying to tie the VIX's movement to its previous day's range will only get you into trouble - believe me I have tried.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 4:06:59 PM

That's 7 so far.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 4:05:54 PM

Oh! ... March Crude Oil (cl09h) settled $41.44.

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 4:05:27 PM

The updated wave count on the SPX 10-min chart is here: Link . Following tomorrow's expected bounce (good for a long play if you want to try a couple of front-month calls with some of your profits) we'll get an even better short play setup. The break of the rising wedge pattern from the January low means we'll get a relatively quick retracement of the whole thing (faster than it took for the rally).

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 4:04:16 PM

Here is an update on the VIX and S&P futures - notice how the futures DID NOT make a new daily low just as the VIX was telling us. As for passing the test longer term I have been using the VIX for years now Jeff. The connection between the VIX and ES became unlinked when we were in the free-for-all but it has as linked back up. The November decline was the only time I have seen these two become unlinked though. Link

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 4:00:40 PM

Best guess for today's count is that the bounce from just before 2:00 PM to this afternoon's high was the 4th wave (not the smaller bounce near 12:30 PM) and that makes this afternoon's drop into the close the 5th wave down. That sets us up for a rally tomorrow to correct today's decline. A 50% retracement would have SPX back up to 861 and take us through lunch. If you're into shorter-term trading now is a good time to take some money off the table.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:52:43 PM

Now, I a VIX.X indicator day trader might move me off my stool if he/she used a DAILY Pivot retracement so I could put things in context as to the PRIOR day's range.

regular session of course.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:49:57 PM

I was pretty sure of that Jane.

However, I'd STRONGLY urge day traders to TEST such reasoning.

IF something can't pass a TEST of a longer-term observation, it may have GREAT DIFFICULTY on a shorter-term basis.

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 3:49:22 PM

Here ES is making a new daily low but the VIX is not making a new daily high SUGGESTING a bottom. Of course it is 15 minutes to close so that and $0.25 will get you a bus ride but this is what I am looking at. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:46:30 PM

VIX.X 42.68 +7.61% ... I looked at RKH options earlier this morning ... VERY expensive in my opinion.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:44:18 PM

Regional Bank HOLDrs (RKH) 1/4 short ... Stop goes $57.50 to begin. MAX TARGET at this point is TREND "A" ... there might be some "certain failure" bears just waiting for us there.

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 3:43:53 PM

Jeff my VIX analysis is purely on an intraday basis - I hardely ever look at the daily charts.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:41:47 PM

As always ... you're welcome to make a call and track it though!

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:41:17 PM

Too late Keene ... I've got it. (wink)

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 3:38:32 PM

Oh, I see RKH is already below November's low. Still, the wave count would look best with at least one more new low to complete a 5-wave move down from the December high.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:37:55 PM

Swing trade short alert! 1/4 position in the Regional Banks HOLDRs (RKH) at the bid of $52.68.

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 3:37:38 PM

On the banks Jeff? No, needs a new low for the year (below the November low) but I think they're getting real close to a bottom.

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 3:36:37 PM

Hmm, no bounce. That's bearish. The size of the bounce was very small if that's all there's to be.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:35:25 PM

RKH $53.00 .... You like anything here Keene?

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:34:15 PM

UYG $3.50 alert!

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 3:32:51 PM

No c-wave up yet. Looks like we should be finishing up the b-wave pullback for the a-b-c bounce off today's low.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:28:36 PM

What I DO know was there was a heck of a lot more put buying/call selling going on than there was put selling/call buying, and OPTION PREMIUMS were VERY HIGH.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:26:41 PM

Jane ... you don't have to prove anything to me.

I just don't think the VIX's 10/24/08 high suggest a bottom.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:21:09 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

CLOSED today are QAV-NZ and the 1/2 position short in the UGA

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 3:19:07 PM

Internals are still very bearish and any rally should be sold because they will not hold. Link

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 3:13:55 PM

Although I have done this many many times before but I will again. sigh!!

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 3:13:27 PM

Ok guys I guess I have to go prove VIX is a good predictor of bottoms and tops heh? I have my mission!

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 3:12:18 PM

OK, as for this afternoon's bounce, it's right on track so far. It's been choppy as it should be. A strong spike up into the close would fit as a c-wave to complete the bounce (with a Fib projection right now at SPX 859). If it doesn't complete by the end of today we could see a quick pop higher tomorrow to finish it (and then get short for the next leg down).

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:12:02 PM

We all knew you'd get it eventually Keene. (wink)

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 3:10:25 PM

Nailing the October 2007 high was a sweet reward. A 4-year choppy rally retraced in 1 year. I know which side was the better trade and a lot more fun too (although I refrain from telling people I made money in a bear market, especially when their accounts are down 30%-50%).

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:09:12 PM

QQQQ $29.75 -1.97% ... after fully backfilling yesterday's gap higher.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:07:03 PM

Didn't he "Bob" ... that's why you didn't believe it in 2007.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:05:53 PM

Keene ... I KNOW you go way more than 7. (wink, frown).

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 3:01:54 PM

Well, maybe after the 7th time (wink).

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:00:49 PM

"Bob" ... I would agree with Keene. However, if that breaks, and 6-times later that prior high also breaks to the upside, PLEASE stop.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 2:57:34 PM

BIX.X 60-minute intervals Link

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 2:49:31 PM

Speaking of a new high, if I were "Bob" (wink), I'd be suggesting to anyone who is in a longer-term short play and looking for the new low into February/March to use a new high above yesterday's as your stop level. Once today's bounce finishes and then heads to a new low below today's you can lower your stop to just above the bounce high. That way you stay out of the fray but start to trail it down until we establish some potential downside targets where you'll want to trim some profits off the table.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 2:47:03 PM

UYG $3.64 ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 2:46:37 PM

XLF $9.84 -4.55% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 2:44:55 PM

$BIX.X 92.92 -4.60% ... Either side of Q S1.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 2:44:07 PM

Wells Fargo (WFC) $19.99 -5.66% ... still ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 2:43:20 PM

So true Keene ... and I'm sure "Bob" would agree that sitting in cash and trying to sell the market all the way up from 2003-2006 with a stop above the high very difficult indeed.

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 2:39:28 PM

Alas, EW, like all other technical tools, is subject to interpretation. Want to hear some loud and vociferous arguments? Put a bunch of Elliotticians in the same room and have them argue what the correct wave count is. It takes a long time to get the feel for it and make it reliable. I'm still learning every day with this tool. But it did pretty well for me last year (smile) and I have confidence it will do well for me this year. Each year gets a little better and if that weren't true I'd abandon it and go find something else.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 2:38:37 PM

I will STRONGLY, with GREAT EMPHASIS, that EW is a good predictor of market direction.

A broker buddy of mine, I'll call him "Bob" took all his clients out of the market from 2003-2006 based on wave analysis.

Then put them back in in early 2008. (wink)

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 2:33:46 PM

Perhaps what Jane meant to say (not that I'm putting words in her mouth) is that divergences will often show first before price turns. That I'll certainly agree with. But in this case there's no divergence on the VIX chart.

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 2:31:58 PM

Sorry Jane--I'm with Jeff on the VIX issue. Price leads and all other indicators follow or at best will be coincident. The only reliable predicting indicator is EW (wink).

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 2:26:32 PM

I would STRONGLY and respectfully disagree Jane.

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 2:24:49 PM

The VIX is supporting each and every S&P futures move. If the market is in starting to make a bottom you should see it in the VIX first. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 2:23:41 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 2:18:52 PM

Here are your ON charts. The only market to break its previous day lows so far is the Russell 2000 futures, however, all markets are well below their respective ON lows. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 2:06:57 PM

Another VERY funky measure in TRIN today.

Yesterday not NEARLY as bullish as I would have thought.

Other than first hour or so, not NEARLY as bearish as I would think.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 2:04:58 PM

I would use the Wilshire 5000 (DWC) 8,554 -3.00% current ... to tie with the BPALL

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 2:02:21 PM

Global Bullish % at 01/28/09 Close Link

I "generalize" a bit with EWZ equating to "Latin America," but PBR is biggest weight in EWZ.

This morning EWH and EWJ bar charts quickly reviewed.

Thus last night's World Economic Forum note.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 1:57:58 PM

Good thought Keene ... and that's one side of the bond market analysis. Thus the importance of gold's action the past few days.

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 1:55:21 PM

I find it more than a little curious that after the Fed "threatened" to monetize the debt and be a buyer of Treasuries (in an effort to talk up the bond market and keep rates low) the bond market has responded with a big wet raspberry blown the Fed's way. The 30-year is down nearly 4 handles from its pre-FOMC high. That's a big move and an even bigger statement.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 1:51:35 PM

iShares Japan (EWJ) Alert! $6.68 -3.34% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 1:39:41 PM

iShares Products Page Link

For those that are aware of the World Economic Forum you can actually look at some charts and make some ties as to what these market movers and global shakers see for the future.

You can TEST THEIR RATIONAL and SEE IF MARKET PARTICIPANTS agree/disagree with their thoughts/analysis.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 1:25:50 PM

Thanks for that update Keene ... I thought you had suggested a short on Friday.

I'm no longer worried.

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 1:23:31 PM

Good reminder Jeff on gold. My last update on Tuesday said the pullback from Monday's high looks corrective and that I'm waiting for another leg up (same for silver). It's looking like that may be starting off this morning's low. I don't trust the upside but I think it's too early to short either one. I'm waiting to see if we get the new high as the next shorting opportunity. My recommendation for the moment is to sit tight and wait.

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 1:20:40 PM

I showed the downside projection for the end of the 5th wave for today's move down at SPX 847.60 and the low so far is 847.62. What's a couple of pennies among trading friends. It looks good for the completion of the 5-wave move and that sets up a larger bounce that should take the rest of the day (back up to the 860-862 area).

The significance of today's 5-wave move down is that it will not stand alone. It will be followed by at least another leg down of equal length or more. So if we get the bounce into this afternoon it will be another very good setup to get short for antoher decline tomorrow.

If we only get a small bounce here and it continues lower then the 5th wave is extending (usually seen in particularly weak markets) in which case the lower targets (839-842) come into play.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 1:17:05 PM

Maybe ... "not so funny?" GLD $89.00 +1.84% ... now I'm worried about soome shorts.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 1:13:39 PM

Funny Keene ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 1:13:17 PM

YM 8,125 alert! ... complete retrace of "bad bank" news

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 1:12:43 PM

That's because everyone sees the huge government rescue packages as a "whiff", as in missing the ball.

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 1:11:44 PM

Got it thanks.

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 1:11:16 PM

Jeff, what's the WEF?

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 1:11:10 PM

Reuters WEF 2009 Coverage Link

WEF 2009 Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 1:04:04 PM

GLD $88.80 +1.57% ... ~$887.50 spot

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 1:03:25 PM

Some, make it all of the commentary coming out of the WEF is getting "ugly"

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 1:03:18 PM

If SPX blows through 847 then the next downside projection is near 842. Below that I see potential support near 839.

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 1:01:47 PM

Updating the earlier SPX 10-min chart and zooming a little closer with a 5-min chart, the current leg down could be the last one to finish a 5-wave move down from yesterday. The downside projection at 847.60 should hold in that case. SPX 5-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 1:00:43 PM

QQQQ $29.74 -2.10% ...

VXN.X 42.11

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 1:00:12 PM

Swing trade NAKED puts close out alert! ... for the two (2) QQQQ Feb $26 Puts (QAV-NZ) at the offer of $0.21.

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 12:51:11 PM

The NDX is the weakest of the four. Link

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 12:50:39 PM

The DOW paints the same picture as the SPX. Link

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 12:48:21 PM

The Russell 2000 has been able to trade higher than its 23.60% retracement but not yet to the 38.20%. Link

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 12:46:58 PM

Here is a weekly chart of the SPX with a retracement bracketing all time highs on Oct 12th to the November lows. 23.60% is 939, a level the bulls need to keep in mind if they want any kind of credibility. Link

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 12:40:50 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Speeding up the rate of spending in the proposed economic stimulus package won't be easy, the Congressional Budget Office said Thursday. In a letter to Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., the CBO said much of the anticipated spending on infrastructure projects will necessarily take a long time because of planning and approval time. Government agencies getting a big boost in funding will also have difficulty ramping up their administrative and oversight efforts. It could be possible to speed up the spending so more of it will take place in 2009 and 2010 by cutting through red tape such as competitive bidding or environmental reviews, but cutting corners might lead to "poor performance," CBO said.

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 12:40:17 PM

Here is a weekly chart of Crude with a retracement bracketing the all time highs at 147 and this year's low at 39.11. Usually a market has enough power to rally to at least the 23.60% level but Crude is not anywhere near that level and looks like it has no desire to try and get there. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 12:37:03 PM

Wells Fargo (WFC) $20.07 -5.28% ... WKLY R2 at $18.81

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 12:35:51 PM

Crude is down $0.62 today. After a 70% decline from all time highs this market is still not showing any kind of bullish and that it may rally. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 12:34:55 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 12:24:31 PM

USO $29.60 -0.50% ... UBO-DE $3.20 x $3.50

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 12:19:53 PM

It would really have to begin to be my analysis, based on some technical observations, that market participants now see U.S. refiners in control of the refined products market.

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 12:19:40 PM

There is little doubt the bears are still in command of the mothership Ad volume trajectory, when it talks, talks loud and clear. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 12:17:47 PM

Swing trade short stopped alert! ... for the US Gasoline Fund (UGA) $23.05

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 12:15:37 PM

Initial equity reacton to the Chicago Fed data a bit negative.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 12:14:15 PM

USO $29.33 -1.41% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 12:13:36 PM

USO continues to test the recent termination benchmark of $28.66.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 12:08:29 PM

SPX 853.09 -2.40% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 12:07:59 PM

13-Week Treasury YIELD Alert! 0.21% ... approaching upper-end of Fed's fed funds range

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 12:04:08 PM

iShares Hong Kong (EWH) $9.90 -4.62% Link

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 11:57:46 AM

If SPX drops down to its next downside target, shown on the 10-min chart, near 851 and blows through it then there's another more bearish pattern that I'm considering (based on the pattern I see for the banks and brokers). It calls the late-day bounce into yesterday's close as a truncated finish to yesterday's rally (truncated meaning it didn't make a new high but was in fact the last rally leg). That interpretation calls for a fast decline from here that blows through 840. Just something to stay aware of in case strong selling follows next.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 11:49:15 AM

iShares Japan (EWJ) $8.74 -2.67% Link ... The RED is from 10/27/08 low to recent 01/02/09 high CLOSES.

The BLUE is from max inflection low and high. RSD (regular session derived)

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 11:45:51 AM

Playing with the EW count and Fib relationships between the waves, this SPX 10-min chart shows how today might play out (if we get bearish follow through): Link

We should see the decline stair-step lower for a bit more and the downside projection, for a typical move, is just below 847. From there we can expect a larger bounce to correct today's decline and a typical 2nd wave bounce retraces slightly less than 50% in price and takes about 62% of the time for the 1st wave down.

That's how I get the wave-(2) bounce up to about 861-862 by early Friday morning and then a continuation lower from there. Notice too that the bounce would take it back up to where this morning's bounce failed. The EW label there is wave (iv) and it's a common retracement level (called the previous 4th of the 3rd wave). This is clearly just a projection and now I'll watch and update this along the way.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 11:37:19 AM

iShares Japan (EWJ) $8.75 -2.56% ... has backtested some important near-term support $8.70-$8.71.

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 11:31:09 AM

ES 860 is still holding. If we see SPX bounce up and overlap the low late yesterday afternoon (near 865) it would negate the bearish price pattern and suggest we've only got a corrective pullback from yesterday's high. So that's the key level to the upside for now. If the bounce continues to gather steam and we head for new highs I see upside potential to 895 (if not all the way up to the downtrend line from November near 920), as shown in pink on the updated 60-min chart: Link

A break to a new daily low from here would be bearish and a break below 840 would confirm we're into the next leg down (dark red). The break of the uptrend lines on MACD and RSI is our first indication the leg up from the January low is probably finished.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 11:25:25 AM

At this point, I'm starting to wish long from $21.40.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 11:24:31 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles Alert! Alert! That I've made at this Link

The UGA was profiled at a SHORT (-233 shares for $10K position).

In last night's MM, I did NOT click the "short" button for the portfolio view.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 11:07:53 AM

11:02 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 11:07:22 AM

ES approached the top of its gap at 859.50 and that's the first resistance level. 50% of its gap is near 864.50 and that would be the next resistance level. Any higher than 865 would likely mean gap closure (871.50) and that in turn would likely mean new highs coming.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 11:04:40 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 10:58:24 AM


Keene Little : 1/29/2009 10:39:20 AM

While the bounce can always make it a little higher it's clearly looking corrective and therefore I expect new lows.

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 10:30:15 AM

If stopped out by a higher bounce but then price tucks tail and turns back down, a break to a new daily low would be worth shorting. It would be a confirmed break of the uptrend line for SPX.

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 10:23:40 AM

Looking at RTH (regular trading hours) for ES, the top of this morning's gap is at 859.50. For the bearish play I do not want to see ES above 860 and would use that as a stop level if you're short (especially if short the futures). I want to keep the stop tight for now in case the pullback is just a correction before proceeding higher again. The equivalent level for SPX is about 863.

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 10:22:13 AM

DAVOS, Switzerland (MarketWatch) -- OPEC is ready to make further cuts in oil production in coming months if prices and global demand don't stabilize, the oil cartel's secretary general said at the World Economic Forum annual meeting on Thursday.

It will be clear in coming weeks whether cuts totalling 4.2 million barrels a day instituted in recent months are being met by OPEC members, said Abdalla Salem El Badri, in a panel discussion on the energy outlook for the year ahead.

Preliminary indications are that compliance will be near 100%, he said

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 10:13:27 AM

So let's all shed a tear or two for all those Wall Streeters who had to endure a drop in their bonuses this year.

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 10:12:21 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Despite the collapse of the financial system, the shuttering of several major firms and the elimination of thousands of jobs, the securities industry managed to scratch together about $18 billion of shareholder and investor cash to pay bonuses in 2008, according to New York state comptroller Thomas DiNapoli.

"The decline is the largest on record in absolute dollars and the largest percentage decline in more than 30 years, but the size of the bonus pool is still the sixth largest on record," DiNapoli said in a press release.

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 10:11:30 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. new home sales fell 14.7% in December to the lowest level on record,, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday. The decline in new-home sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 331,000 was far below the 390,000 pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. New-home sales in November were revised to a 388,000 level compared with the previous estimate of 407,000. There were 482,000 new homes sold in 2008, down a record 37.9% from 776,000 sold in 2007. This is the lowest since 1982. The months' supply of homes on the market rose to 12.9 months in December from 12.5 months in November. Median sales prices have fallen 9.3% in the past year to $206,500.

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 10:11:10 AM

If you go back and take a look at the ON charts you will see the DOW (YM) and NDX (NQ) futures both retraced to their respective 61.8% levels, the S&P (ES) has breached that level but the Russell (TF) has not even yet reached its 61.8% (albeit this market is on a 20 minute delay)

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 10:06:37 AM

Markets breach their respective ON lows making a lower low, more evidence the bears have the ball. Link

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 10:05:52 AM

We've got a minor break of the uptrend line by SPX and the RUT is about to test its uptrend line. The DOW and NDX are relatively stronger in that regard as they are still above their uptrend lines.

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 10:04:09 AM

Then what I consider the most important internal of all, the VIX, has jumped to a new daily high and is still climbing. Link

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 10:02:04 AM

Then take a look at the AD ratio, yesterday it was well over 6.00 most of the day but today it is well below 1.00. These are all signs the bears have control.

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 10:01:06 AM

It is still early so hard to get a really good handle on the trajectory of the AD volume but it certainly has a direction and that direction is opposite to yesterday's direction. Also notice the TRIN and its level, much more bearish than yesterday. Link

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 9:43:25 AM

First bearish heads up will be a break of the uptrend line from last Friday, currently near SPX 855-856. Confirmation of the break will be a drop below Tuesday afternoon's low near 840.

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 9:41:23 AM

The VIX closed yesterday at 39.66 and opened this morning at 41.34, that is a pretty big jump.

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 9:36:21 AM

AD line is a bearish -1473.

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 9:27:28 AM

Overnight the American Equity futures markets all retraced 50% of their previous day ranges, tried to rally back around 4:30ET and are now heading lower again. It will be a good sign if the ON lows are not breached intraday and the markets are able to regain the 4:30 swing high. However, the scenario I think will take place is the bears take over the reins for at least the rest of the week and we see a retest of the January 20th lows before we head higher, if we head higher. How well the January 20th retest works out will tell us a lot. Link

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 9:16:47 AM

It looks like we'll start the day with a good sized gap down and that will likely confirm the bearish setup from yesterday (calling for a top of the bounce off January's low). Until we see what kind of decline develops and the form of the bounces it will be best to keep stops on any short plays just above yesterday's highs.

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 9:05:33 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Orders for U.S.-made durable goods sank in December, falling 2.6% on weaker demand for a wide range of products, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Excluding the 0.6% gain in transportation goods, orders fell 3.6%. The decrease exceeded the expected 2.0% fall forecast by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. It was the fifth straight decline in new orders. The report was weak across the board. One of the only bright spots was a jump in commercial aircraft. Shipments fell 0.7% in December, and were down 1.4% excluding transportation goods. Inventories rose 0.4.

Jane Fox : 1/29/2009 9:04:49 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Unemployment lines stretched to the longest on record, the Labor Department reported Thursday, a sign that the U.S. labor market continues to worsen.

Continuing jobless claims rose by 159,000 in the week ended Jan. 17 to a seasonally adjusted 4.78 million, the most since the government's records begin in 1967. That is the same week that the government surveyed hundreds of thousands of workplaces and households to gather information for the January employment report.

Meanwhile, the number of new claims for state unemployment benefits also increased, up 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 588,000 in the week ended Jan. 24. This put the number just 1,000 below the 26-year high for initial claims set a month ago.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:57:53 AM

YM off 80 at 8,242

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:57:29 AM

There's not enough time in a day is there?

See you in the few hours.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:54:02 AM

Thursday's Econ Calendar ... 02:00 AM was UK's Nationwide HPI Link

YM was sitting on its DAILY Pivot (regular session derived) at 02:00 AM.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:47:06 AM

Ym is "active" tonight isn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:38:07 AM

For now, it cost me 11-points to think a DAILY S2, S1, Piv, R1, R2 is going to hold more influence that the retracement.

Also, see today's regular session high go 8 points above the WKLY R2? What a "bargain" this morning at MONTHLY S1/WKLY 80.9% ovelap, give/take 6 points.

You see this over and over and wonder why some use extended session stuff for their pivot levels.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:31:31 AM

YM and $/yen 60-minute intervals Link

See the SIMILARITY starting to show up again?

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:27:04 AM

YM 8,267 ... $/yen 90.08

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:21:07 AM

YM 8,261 ... $/yen 90.01

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:12:29 AM

YM and $/yen 5-minute intervals Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:06:59 AM

And it ISN'T even close to happening even as $ strengthens vs. Yen.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:06:01 AM

YM 8,256 ... $/yen 90.31

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:05:44 AM

Wanted to check YM and $/yen here tonight while things were quiet.

Was thinking at MM 02:46:55 that based simply on 21-pd SMA on 5-minute intervals that YM "should be" 8,290.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:03:08 AM

YM 8,253 ... $/yen 90.19

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:00:50 AM

$/yen 90.07

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 3:00:18 AM

YM long stop alert! 8,255

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 2:52:27 AM

$/yen 90.12 ... YM 8,259

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 2:46:54 AM

YM long ... stop goes 8,255. Target is 8,295

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 2:46:06 AM

YM long alert! 8,266

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 2:22:08 AM

Hong Kong shares extend rise to midday, led by HSBC, banks ... Reuters story Link

Again ... HK had been closed M-W for holiday.

Not seeing trade in Shanghai and I thought they were resuming today too.

Asian Markets: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 2:11:24 AM

BPBANK rose by 4.94% to 19.01%, but still "bull correction" status. Needs 22.00%to reverse back up to "bull confirmed." Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 2:02:25 AM

BPOEX added another 6.00% to 56.00%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 1:57:56 AM

XLF sill $9.00. If any had changed, that one would have.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 1:57:50 AM

SPY's Feb "Max Pain" still $88.00. Checked it real quick after VIX.X discussion.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 1:57:44 AM

SMH juuuuuust shy of its WKLY R2 (1 penny) today.

DIA and YM pretty much tagged there WKLY R2 to the cent. (regular session derived).

RUT.X not close to having tested its WKLY R2.

On a MONTHLY basis, RUT.X juuuust behind the NDX/QQQQ with today's trade at MONTHLY Pivot (472.90).

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 1:57:31 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

CLOSED out the IWM-BR (from 01/22/09 entry) today for $4.00.

Rolled out to March with the IWM-CU.

UGA POSITION ADJUSTMENT: ... It wasn't until well after profile that I realized I had type 1/2 position when I meant to type 1/4 position short. With the POTENTIAL h/s bottom pattern and news of refinery shut-ins, I don't think we want to be more than 1/4, certainly not more than 1/2. As such, if GIVEN THE CHANCE near-term, I'm going to CLOSE a portion (1/4) at $21.00.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 1:12:59 AM

Barry remembers!

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 1:12:13 AM

Hmmm indeed ... but that makes sense because the regular session high and low was so tight. COMPRESSION

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 1:10:21 AM

Hmm, for some reason the 200-dma readings are the same on 9/5 and 9/8 regardless of whether I use closing or HLC prices for it.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 12:50:33 AM

I was thinking that might have been the case too.

I'm not sure what's the best either.

Ah 7-cents ... That may have been "the difference" on 09/05/08 and then on 09/08/08. Check it out!

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 12:46:53 AM

I see the difference. I use Average HLC prices rather than just the closing price (which gives me 36.27 like yours). I'm actually not sure what's the best setting. I think the most commonly used is the closing price but I remember reading somewhere a suggestion to use the average of the high, low and closing prices. Of course we're splitting hairs with a 7-cent difference with mine reported as 36.34.

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 12:42:50 AM

Jeff, no, the 50 and 200-day moving averages on my daily charts are both simple moving averages.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 12:41:45 AM

Keene ... are you using an exponential 200-day moving average?

I've got VIX.X 200-day SMA down at 36.27.

Jeff Bailey : 1/29/2009 12:36:29 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey Link

Purchases index of 294.3 slightly below week ending 01/09/09 of 295.80.

Refinance index "sharp decline" comes from a "surge" in applications to what may have been a record refinance index of 7414.1 for week ending 01/09/09.

Keene Little : 1/29/2009 12:29:06 AM

I've got the same readings as Jeff on today's VIX. When I looked at the daily chart I noticed a couple of noteworthy things:
1. It jabbed down this morning and tagged the 78.6% retracement of its run up from August to October.
2. It dropped below its 200-dma but then rallied back above it.
3. It tagged the bottom of a bullish descending wedge pattern, and has bullish MACD confirming the likely pattern.
4. It left a bullish hammer at support.

If this were a stock I'd be strongly recommending a long play on it. A bullish VIX of course is not bullish for the stock market. We shall see. It's amazing that VIX has retraced 78.6% of its August-October move and yet the stock market (SPX) hasn't been able to retrace even 38% of its decline. While the stock market has essentially consolidated sideways most of the fear has leaked out of the market. A contrarian might be tempted to call that a bearish setup. VIX daily chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 11:02:22 PM

VIX.X finished 39.66. QCharts 6.0.2 has session low of 38.09 (09:35-40 AM ET). I believe this correct.

Keene Little : 1/28/2009 10:29:34 PM

Thursday's pivot table: Link

SPX stopped at its downtrend line from September and as the 60-min chart shows, it tried 3 times but closed slightly below the line. It would obviously be bullish if it can run above it and use it as support for any pullback (shown in pink): Link

It was another good setup for a short play into the close but it has to work immediately Thursday morning. A break of the uptrend line from last week, currently near 856, would be a heads up that the bounce off the January low is probably finished. A break below 840 would confirm it. The daily chart shows upside potential to 920 (downtrend line from October) and downside potential to the November low (or lower): Link

NDX cycled around its broken uptrend line from early December and closed just under it at the close. It's the same setup--it's good for a short play but has to work right away Thursday morning. NDX 60-min chart: Link . The daily chart would turn more bullish with a move above 1255 and a break of its downtrend line from October. Otherwise there's a minimum downside projection to 1096: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/28/2009 10:24:04 PM

YM -23 at 8,299

OI Technical Staff : 1/28/2009 9:59:59 PM

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