Option Investor
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Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 9:33:37 PM

January 2009
INDU -580, or -6.6%
SPX -77.37, or -8.6%
OEX -40.26, or -9.3%
NDX -31.40, or -2.6%
SMH -0.69, or -3.9%
BIX.X -50.55, or -36.8%
RUT.X -55.92, or -11.2%

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 9:21:03 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 9:01:02 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 4:17:02 PM

Will have some LEVELS for you pivot traders (new WKLY and MONTHLY) so we'll know what to look for!

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 4:15:35 PM

Maybe a "cramp and ramp"

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 4:15:03 PM

Good thought Keene!

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 4:14:46 PM

If I'd seen a $1.45 or better, I'd sure think we'd see target of $1.75.

Keene mentioned possibility of a morning gap lower Monday.

That would fit VERY nicely into a UNH-NT $1.75 x $1.85 open.

Was thinking the same thing myself!

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 4:11:45 PM

UNH finished $28.33 -1.25% ... UNH-NT finished $1.10 x $1.25.

Session high on the option was, was, was... $1.40

Will take a note.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 4:06:09 PM

Exhausted ... simply exhausted. What a day for traders!

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 4:05:36 PM

Holding off on potential CDE bull trade for now. Will monitor futures on Sunday, and be ready for plan implementation.

Keene Little : 1/30/2009 4:05:13 PM

We didn't get the "one last low" into the close so we could get a quick jab lower Monday morning and then a reversal to the upside. That's the setup anyway.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 4:00:44 PM

Per Wednesday evening Market Wrap and "day count" on Crude.

Analysis: At today's settlement, for the FIRST time in several terminations, oil looks to be firming.

BIGGEST test now is for a TERMINATION above the 01/20/09 TERMINATION benchmark.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:58:18 PM

Kinda "need to" with the PBR.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:57:57 PM

Will hold the ~1/3 position UBO-DE $3.00 x $3.20 for my Market Monitor Profiles ...

USO $29.25 +0.09% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:56:14 PM

That's 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:55:31 PM


Keene Little : 1/30/2009 3:55:19 PM

Why has the market taken such a hit lately, yet the VIX is still under 50?

VIX has been climbing all day so as Jane likes to remind us--the climbing VIX has supported a drop in prices. As to why it's not back over 50 yet, can you say complacency? There are still many who believe, and are betting, on a rally into April/May (to mimic the 1930 rally after a low in November 1929).

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:53:48 PM

Nymex March Crude settled, settled ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:53:20 PM

USO $29.23 +0.03% ... holding on.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:52:30 PM

UYG $3.19 -6.17% ... Jack be nimble, Jack be quick!

Keene Little : 1/30/2009 3:52:30 PM

If the bounce here is followed by another low into the close it will create the overlapping 5-wave move down from this afternoon's high that will look like an ending pattern (small descending wedge). SPX 820 remains a good downside target. That would set up an immediate rally on Monday so lock in some profits if you've been riding this down.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:51:33 PM

WFC $18.77 -0.05% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:50:39 PM

Let's end the week on a "positive" note! CNBC alert may be factored in. ASSESS near-term RISK to the new pivots.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:49:38 PM

Swing trade short cover alert! ... for the 1/4 position in the Regional Bank HOLDRs (RKH) at the offer of $50.75

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:47:11 PM

Yesterday a "doji" day for PBR.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:46:47 PM

PBR's 19.1% on same measure is $25.66.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:45:24 PM

PBR $26.31 +0.22% ... holding tough

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:44:26 PM

iShares Brazil (EWJ) $35.14 -2.19% Alert! Retraces 38.2% of close to close 11/20/08-01/06/09

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 3:40:49 PM

Keene I agree - I think 2009 will be choppy but mostly upward.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:39:01 PM

RKH $50.40 ... M Pivot would now be $56.33. WKLY Piv $51.18. (both RSD). WKLY S1 $45.59.

Keene Little : 1/30/2009 3:35:51 PM

Jane, my prediction has been that January will be a down month but 2009 will be an up year. Jeff may not believe in EW analysis but I sure do and it's predicting a strongly positive year.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:35:06 PM

YM 7,924

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:34:41 PM

Incrrrrredible action and volume. "Fast market" here

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:34:03 PM

Check out WFC !

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:33:25 PM

YM went 7,936 as new session low.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 3:32:27 PM

You know the old saying, "How January goes so goes the year" well the SPX is down 7% this month, setting a fairly bearish outlook for the year.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:31:03 PM

If short YM from my MM 03:10:10, would cover here 7,950

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 3:30:01 PM

TRIN above 2.00 now so we are getting way oversold and could see a much more substantial rally now.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 3:28:42 PM

Here is the rally we should have sold into. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:26:52 PM

YM 7,953

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:26:42 PM

INDU 8,003

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:25:27 PM

Procter & Gamble (PG) $54.85 -5.78% ... alert! Challenges 10/10/08 low.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:24:33 PM

Might be helpful to Keene's 03:23:33 question.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:24:13 PM

That's 38.2% of the BLUE conventional from yesterday's MM posting.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:23:43 PM

iShares Japan (EWJ) 8.45 -2.08% ... Alert! ...

Keene Little : 1/30/2009 3:23:33 PM

I keep waiting to see if we're going to put in a bottom so that I can make some projections for Monday but so far the market remains week. SPX 820 remains a good Fib projection if it drops lower. If it chops lower from this afternoons's high (e.g., in a small descending wedge) then we'll know a bottom will be formed soon. If the downtrend line from Wednesday breaks we'll know a bottom is in. Neither has happened yet so we wait.

The SPX 15-min chart shows the parallel down-channel from Wednesday and a projection down to 820 Monday morning (pink) or a breakout and the start of the bigger bounce (dark red): Link . It's starting to break down as I type and prepare the chart. So no apparent bottom yet.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:23:14 PM

And "short, stop the highs" that got some heat are taking the opportunity to get some cover.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:22:42 PM

Check out HMO.X ... get the feeling, based on observation its is very, very, very short.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:20:35 PM

Was BIG at $0.90 on 1/26/09. I was monitoring close.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:18:52 PM

See Level II ISE at the bid? He/she is our "key" I think.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:14:30 PM

Sounds like Keene has us covered on any downside.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:14:01 PM

OK, those that have traded CDE with me over the years, we kind'a "know" that it tends to move with the market at this time of day.

I'm going to suggest we take another long down in here.

IF the squeeze in precious metals continues to build, THEN see the field position of CDE in the BPPREC? That's when it rocks to the upside.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:12:05 PM

SLV $12.47 +1.71% ... good, grrrravy.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:10:10 PM

Financial weak ... major should go out at/near their lows.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:09:48 PM

NASDAQ a/d 9,61/1,775 ... was 1,034/1,622 at 02:00 bench.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:09:16 PM

NYSE a/d 801,2208 to the close. Was 902/2,066 at 02:00 benchmark.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:08:05 PM

As noted here in the MM, there has been some talk that CHK may be an acquisition target of BP. I would not SHORT CHK (use puts) just in case.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:06:57 PM

CHK $16.00

or HUI.X 301.79 ????

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:05:31 PM

pa, pa, pa ... ut!

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:05:14 PM

UNG $18.23 -3.49% ...

Check out CHK $16.00 -4.25% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 3:00:55 PM

Go ahead ... just start punching in the symbols ... you can cover a lot of ground real quick.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:59:57 PM

Somthing like the UNH if at all possible. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:59:07 PM

If determined short the group, maybe look for UXG, VGZ, AQLNF, RIC, KGN, NSU, NXG, NGD, or AUY techinal.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:57:46 PM

BPPREC components ... WKLY distribution. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:50:41 PM

Also factor in VIX.X 44.01 and premiums

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:50:05 PM

See my HUI.X and CDE comments from earlier.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:49:45 PM

At last night's close, BPPREC was "bull confirmed" at 46% (46.835 actual). Another "buy" if 52%.

Agree with Keene, that trend better hold you "stop the high"

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:47:36 PM

Befor you buy a HUI.X index put, might want to check BPPREC bullish %.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 2:47:04 PM

Notice how the S&P futures made a new daily low but the VIX did not make a new daily high and ES had no follow through to the downside? This is the VIX leading ES. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:45:57 PM

Can "pop out" to OI main page, see if James has intra-day update, anything we've missed here. Link

Keene Little : 1/30/2009 2:45:13 PM

Another way to play the short side on gold and gold stocks is with XAU. Check out the monthly chart and its test of the broken uptrend line from 2000. It gave it a kiss and now it needs to get the slap goodbye. It doesn't have much in the way of option OI and therefore is thinly traded (with wide spreads out further). GDX doesn't have the same history but has much higher OI and you can buy Jan LEAPS. Here's the XAU monthly chart for reference: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:44:30 PM

Week's Global Econ Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:43:39 PM

Jane got it early this morning ... GDP ... wasn't sure ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:42:08 PM

SPY $83.55 -1.18% ....

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:40:04 PM

Don't see any ... you can hit (cntrl f) on your keyboard, then find what= KLAC, or other keyword phrase to search the Market Monitor (MM) for something specific.

Get caught up on REAL LIVE trades with "alert"

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:37:40 PM

Check MM for news updates ... for KLAC

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:36:54 PM

Analysis: Chip action is "stock specific" , not group (equipment) or commodity (chip) specific.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:36:20 PM

AMAT $9.52 -0.83% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:36:05 PM

KLAC $20.74 +8.98% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:35:39 PM

bang ... there it is.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:35:29 PM

Another place is your NDX heatmap Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:35:03 PM

AMD $2.24 +1.81% ... top of mind is usually a start.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:34:01 PM

INTC $13.15 -1.57% ... I'm "surprised!" Then look for why ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:33:08 PM

SMH +0.11% at $17.25 ... sector winner.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:32:46 PM

OEX and DIA/YM/INDU traders ... I like to use the VXO.X

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:31:36 PM

When I see DIVERGENCE, or CHANGE, I become VERY, VERY al_rt.

That's the "power of the pivots" as we like to say.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:30:49 PM

Testing my long-time intra-day observation of ANY use of VIX.X and "market direction" for day trading.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:29:55 PM

VIX.X 44.16 ... ditto.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:29:34 PM

SPY 83.27 ... DAILY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:27:29 PM

All equity-based sector in U.S. Market Watch now red.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:27:01 PM

Computers more easily measure on minute-to-minute basis. (regular session of course as many stocks never see a tick after 04:00)

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:25:57 PM

NASDAQ NH/NL 4:90 ... DAILY Ratio now 4.3%. The 5-day NH/NL ratio possible inflection low of 1/26/09 was 4.5%.

Will try and cover late.

Closed out the NAKED QQQQ puts as 01/28/09 daily ratio of 11.5% approached 5-day NH/NL needed 3-box reversal of 12.00, but then looked to fall on the QCOM actions.

Again, next level stuff here, but will try and cover.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:20:07 PM

Or at least if I used the VIX.X as a day trading tool, she could've pushed me that way this morning. (see yesterday's MM)

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:19:01 PM

VIX.X 43.99 +3.19% ... Jane might agree that DAILY Pivot 42.26 would have had any VIX.X read all day as "neutral" to negative with VIX.X DAILY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:16:42 PM

RKH $52.19 -0.91% ... DAILY Pivot $53.16. Analysis: posture a little more "bearish" versus yesterday's action.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:15:45 PM

JPM $25.91 +1.88% ... DAILY Pivot (RSD) ... analysis: posture still "neautral" versus yesterday's action.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:13:55 PM

WR2 (RSD) still holding buyers.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:13:30 PM

WFC $18.89 +0.58% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:11:32 PM

Low so far ... 86.64.

Sometimes its a decimal that "makes the difference"

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:10:47 PM

Incredible QRTRLY Pivot retracement action for the BIX.X under this duress.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:05:32 PM

Analysis: Sell side pressure not yet to average of yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:05:01 PM

TRIN 1.39 .. spike was to 2.12. No trade to DAILY Pivot (RSD) 2.64

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:03:01 PM

XAL -6.82%, NWX -4.25% and CYC.X 415.55 -4.15%

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:02:16 PM

HUI.X +1.14% ... BTK.X (unch) ... sector winners.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:01:09 PM

dj- PdVSA: In talks with service companies to cut costs

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:57:02 PM

SPX 830.44 -1.73% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:56:45 PM

dj- Columbia Central Bank: Cuts rates to 9.00% from 9.5%

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:55:14 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Check balance of positions, make sure not too one-side-the other on market responses. And should initial continue.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:52:21 PM

UNH $27.85 -2.99% ... VIX.X 44.35

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:52:01 PM

UNH-NT $1.40 alert!

Keene Little : 1/30/2009 1:50:20 PM

A rally back above the last bounce high at SPX 841 would probably lead to a sharper rally as shorts cover following the bad news about Crappy Mae.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:49:35 PM

Would be NEGATIVE if SPX can't hold WKLY Pivot after seeing WKLY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:48:56 PM

SPX 830

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:47:46 PM

Swing trade exit alert ... The 1/8 UUYG at $3.25

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 1:47:09 PM

ES is now making new daily lows.

Keene Little : 1/30/2009 1:46:47 PM

Drawing in a parallel down-channel for this week's decline the bottom of it is currently near 820.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:46:19 PM

WFC $18.74 -0.31% ... not test of its prior "Bad Bank" benchmark. (see Wednesday's Wrap)

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:45:14 PM

DJ- USW Union: Negotiating with oil refiners has been "difficult."

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:44:26 PM

VIX.X 44.09

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:43:48 PM

RKH never did get above GREEN #2.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:43:20 PM

Looks like MARKET MOVING news out of CNBC alert!

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:43:02 PM

RKH $51.52 -2.18% ... goood gravy!

Keene Little : 1/30/2009 1:42:27 PM

Now we watch to see if the test of the low shows (more) bullish divergences to suggest the low will hold (even if it's a minor break).

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:41:32 PM

March unleaded ... +3.18% at $1.2829 ... that VLO news may be part of recent strength too.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:39:29 PM

I've lost my QCharts data feed ... can't see response.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:39:11 PM

CNBC ... reporting "Bad Bank" scenario may be put back on hold.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:37:22 PM

dj- Valero: Will operate port arthur refinery if union strikes

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:36:40 PM

dj- Valero: Memphis, Deleware refinery units will shut down on union strike

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:35:33 PM

Not seeing anything on the DowJones wires ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:34:10 PM

What was that on CNBC regarding "Bad Bank" back on hold?

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:30:56 PM

Analysis: I'm thinking 50/50 at best of "certain failure" based on that trend.

Keene Little : 1/30/2009 1:30:24 PM

Speaking of H&S patterns, if you look at the SPX 60-min chart I posted earlier (1:01) or just at your own 30 or 60-min chart, you can see how a bounce into Monday could create a right shoulder after the left shoulder on Monday and the head on Wednesday. The neckline is at this morning's low and that would give us a downside price objective of 780 (from the head to the neckline and then project down from the break of the neckline).

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:28:47 PM

If memory serves correct, that was thought to be "certain failure #3" trend from Tuesday.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:27:34 PM

Backtesting as some support here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:27:04 PM

Oh my! See where SPY is to that downward trend from the 10/07/08 relative high, to recent 12/17/08 relative high and extension of said trend?

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:25:58 PM

SPY went close below Red#5, has now seen a close Red #3, sits on red #4.

SPY $83.87.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 1:24:11 PM

I see ES is now returning to its neckline and if that holds we may have more a rally than I expected. I see the AD volume climbed to a high of -604 but is falling again. I think there is higher probability the reverse head and shoulders neckline will not hold and this will be an example of selling a rally.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:21:17 PM

With levels, you can turn yourself into a QUANTITATIVE trader instead of an anecdotal trader.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:19:53 PM

You SPX/SPY/ES traders taking notes?

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:19:32 PM

UYG day traders ... you taking notes?

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:19:00 PM

What HASN'T it been able to do so far today?

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:18:40 PM

RKH so far has seen a 5-minute close BELOW Red #2.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:17:54 PM

What's our "once below, never two above?"

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:17:27 PM

OK traders ... use your Upper and lower 5-mrt in RKH I gave you earlier. RKH went RED #3 and so far just Green #2.

What's a QUANTITATIVE masure for "key reversal?"

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:14:01 PM

BIX.X 90.79 +2.44% ... still sector winner

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:13:36 PM

VIX.X 42.93 ... back below QRTRLY 38.2% and WKLY S1.

Keene Little : 1/30/2009 1:12:52 PM

Thanks Jane (your 1:03). Your chart shows more bullish divergence than mine. Regardless, it looks like the bounce will develop some legs.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:11:10 PM

RKH $53.80 +2.26% ... comes to morning high.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 1:10:59 PM

I have not touched these charts of the VIX and ES I showed earlier but I would now like to bring you attention to which market broke its neckline first - the VIX. This should show you the VIX leads ES. This is most of the time not always, like everything else in the market. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:08:59 PM

TRINQ 1.61 ... was 1.66 at 10:00 and 1.60 at 12:00

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:08:27 PM

Was 1.27 at 10:00, 1.26 at 12:00

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:08:02 PM

TRIN 1.00

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:06:12 PM

I had sold the last of my UYG Wednesday afternoon at $3.97 so no disclosure needed at time of profile.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:04:25 PM

XBD 75.17 -0.07% ...

BKX 30.00

BIX 90.38,

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:03:52 PM

RKH $53.47

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 1:03:37 PM

Keene actually we do have bullish divergences, at least in the MACD. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:03:35 PM

Swing trade long 1/8 position in the ProShares Utra Financials (UYG) at the offer of $3.42.

NO stop for RKH shorts.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:02:33 PM

XLF 9.55 alert!

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:02:04 PM

Analysis: That may say a GREAT deal about "finacial" factor in SPX vs. non-financial factor in NDX now come together.

Keene Little : 1/30/2009 1:01:56 PM

The size of the bounce now is as good a signal as any that we may have seen the low for the day. What's missing are bullish divergences at the new low and therefore stay on guard if playing the long side. But for now I'm going to assume we'll get the larger bounce I was thinking we'll get today--just later and from a lower low than I expected. Now I'm trying to figure out where the next bounce could head to.

A 62% retracement of the drop from Wednesday would take SPX back up to 860 which coincides with the downtrend line from September (which stopped the rally on Wednesday). The timing of the cross of 860 and that downtrend line is not until Tuesday and that seems a bit long. The bottom of a parallel up-channel (created off the trend line along the highs since January 21st) could act as resistance, which will be near 854 Monday morning (and is the 50% retracement). On the updated 60-min chart I'm showing a bounce up to 860 before heading lower again: Link

A rally above 870 is needed to tell us we've got another leg up in progress and then two equal legs up from January 21st gives us an upside target just shy of 903 (shown in pink). Otherwise the expected bounce from here should set up a good short play for another leg down to 800 and then lower (dark red). If we get a new low today (hopefully with some bullish divergence to clue us a bottom is forming) then the price projections will change so first we'll see how the current bounce progresses.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:00:48 PM

have you noticed that Jane?

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 1:00:09 PM

Fascinating VIX.X and VXN.X comparisons over last couple of months ...

Now 43.62 and 43.34 ... measures MUCH different, now come together.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:56:27 PM

XLF 9.50

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:55:43 PM

IRX 0.24% ..

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:55:27 PM

NYSE a/d 962/1,955

NASDAQ a/d 1,092/1,509

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:55:05 PM

Majors paring losses.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:54:47 PM

BIX.X +1.62% ..

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:54:37 PM

BTK.X 642.45 +0.22% ... inches green.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:53:59 PM

Will update your "Max pain" at today's close too.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:53:27 PM

Again ... RSD= Regular Session Derived.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:52:58 PM

IWM if $45.00 (currently $44.99) ... Remember trade blotter exit on IWM-BR of 1/28/09.

38.29, 42.77, Piv= 47.34 51.82, 56.39.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:50:46 PM

RKH if $53.00 today ... $21.87, $37.43, Piv= 57.20, 72.76, 92.53.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:48:05 PM

Using ASSUMPTION of current 89.75

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:47:39 PM

32.70, 61.23, 100.44 128.97, 168.18

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:46:49 PM

Getting them for sure ... BIX is next.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:45:58 PM

SPX from Wednesday's wrap Link and 01/06/09 high note. With a trade this month at M S1, THEN M Pivot will be heavy on any first test.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:43:29 PM

Now you've got a plan ... IF, THEN, ELSE

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:43:06 PM

SPX MNTHLY (RSD) would be 734.11, 784.56, Piv= 864.20, 914.65, 994.29.

REMEMBER this month's high and how computers traded it.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:40:48 PM

Run on SPX quick at current 835 ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:40:22 PM

IF VIX 44.00 at the close ... RSD MNTHLY Pivot levels will 25.64, 34.82, Piv= 46.09 55.27, 66.54

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 12:38:00 PM

Also take a look at the TRIN in my last post. That should be telling you bullish setups should maybe used to sell.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:37:29 PM

VIX.X ... might want to "zoom" in a little ... check out 60-minute intervals with your 21-pd, 50-pd, 150 and 200. See it?

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:36:03 PM

Let's run the monthly with ASSUME 44.00 this last day of the month.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:35:33 PM

VIX.X 43.96 ... good work Jane. 21-day SMA 44.42. QRTRLY 38.2% 43.65.

Can think "zone"

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 12:35:25 PM

The problem is that any bullish patterns will not have a great deal of success as long as the AD volume is this bearish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:34:21 PM

Reason NASDAQ NH/NL becomes important is it doesn't have as many BIG banks/financials ...

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 12:34:13 PM

Here is the VIX confirming the S&P futures reverse head and shoulders. We need to see both necklines break for confirmation. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:33:18 PM

NASDAQ 5-day NH/NL ratio +0.40%. DAILY is 4.9%. This could be VERY important observation. Will discuss later. Tried to last night, but just got too busy.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:32:03 PM

NYSE 5-day NH/NL ratio (unch)

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:28:57 PM


Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:28:11 PM

UYG $3.39 ... know where you are (MM trade blotter)

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:27:41 PM

XLF $9.50

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:26:00 PM

Last night I was looking at $IRX.X ... go back to "great bull market begin" from

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:24:58 PM

$IRX.X alert! 0.23%

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:24:35 PM

IWM $44.84 -1.24% ... DS1

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:23:57 PM

NASDAQ a/d 976/1,588

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:23:44 PM

NYSE a/d 857/2,043

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:23:07 PM


Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:22:43 PM

RKH $53.17 ... back to D Pivot

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:18:40 PM

Again ... I cover a lot of ground ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:16:44 PM

VIX.X 44.09 +3.42% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:16:15 PM

JPM $26.58 +4.48% ... also "Best of breed" for the money center ... check it out!

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:15:39 PM

Best of breed? ... WFC $19.35 +3.03% ... no test yet of Wednesday's gap higher low.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:15:00 PM

BAC $6.69 -1.32% ... backfilled Wednesday gap higher.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:14:32 PM

C $3.69 -5.38% ... backfilled Wednesday's gap higher.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:13:08 PM

Analysis: Dollar strength largely against euro.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:12:52 PM

Per UUP ... FXE -1.33%, FXY (unch), FXB +0.82% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:10:20 PM

USO $29.20 -0.06% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:09:16 PM

UNG $18.16 -3.86% ... set to test Wednesday's 52-week low.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:07:15 PM

Note: INDU session low at Friday's "certain failure" afternoon low.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:06:24 PM

INDU 8,042 -1.30% ... after session low of, of, of 8,008

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:05:36 PM

Dollar index/UUP $25.97 +0.69% ... trades correlative WKLY Pivot/DAILY R2 (RSD)

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:04:09 PM

XLF $9.47

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:02:54 PM

VIX.X 44.26

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:02:00 PM

See up-tick in volume at 11:45-50 correlative with WKLY R1 (RSD). Institutional computers workiing it.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:01:07 PM

RKH $53.02 +0.72% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:00:43 PM

BIX.X +1.16% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 12:00:26 PM

CDE sits on WKLY S1 (RSD) $0.72. DAILY S1 $0.71.

WKLY S2/DAILY S2 overlaps at $0.65.

I'd be an BIG BULL intra-day weakness if CDE $0.65. Would need FURTHER broader equity weakness at this point to get it though

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:58:29 AM

For oil, it has been the EQUITY leads the commodity.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:58:02 AM

Notes from Global equity index, currency, GLD/HUI.X that here, the commodity has tended to lead the equity action to UPSIDE.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:56:52 AM

Calibrate CDE Monday high with HUI.X ... be ready again on sector strength and lower CDE entry.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:56:00 AM

HUI.X 305 +1.02% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:55:21 AM

SLV $12.46 +1.71% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:55:05 AM

Check against prior profile ... would still be safe.

Check silver ... do I want back in on "equity just out of favor"

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:54:14 AM

CDE $0.726 +2.30% ... yesterday's pullback low was, was, $0.68.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:53:28 AM

R2 $91.71 and WKLY R2 $92.77

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:53:00 AM

GLD reclaimed overlapping WKLY R1 /DAILY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:52:07 AM

GLD $91.04 alert!

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:49:37 AM

IWM note: From Monday's "certain failure" afternoon low, today's DAILY S2 $44.30 a tie.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:48:01 AM

Volume study looks light ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:47:34 AM

IWM $44.55 -1.89% ... sits on WKLY Pivot (RSD)

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:46:18 AM

Analysis: FIRST SIGN OF RESUMED intra-day strength is BACK ABOVE WKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:45:28 AM

XLF $9.42 ... not quite full backfill. WKLY R1 $9.50. Tagged DAILY S1 to the penny (RSD)

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:42:04 AM

Pivot note: INDU first to trade a WKLY Pivot. INDU 8,026. (relative WEAKNESS to last week vs. other major index)

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:39:31 AM

EWZ $35.65 -0.77% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:39:03 AM

RIO $14.11 -2.00% ... its BRAZIL copper. "Same world" different sector.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:37:32 AM

Will have to RAISE bear target on PBR-PK most likely.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:37:10 AM

USO $29.43 +0.71% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:36:52 AM

PBR $26.37 +0.54% .... in another world ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:35:40 AM

Not sure that would tie at all with an ES (all session derived) this week.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:34:23 AM

Nearing WKLY Pivot. (regular session derived)

Keene Little : 1/30/2009 11:34:00 AM

GDX, the gold miners ETF, is another way to play a short on gold and stocks. It's currently playing tag with its 200-dma and is showing bearish divergence in a rising wedge pattern. It has good options. GDX daily chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:33:37 AM

SPX off 15 now at 830

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:33:07 AM

On UNH ... take a conventional from the low CLOSE of 11/20/08 to the 01/28/09 put entry profile CLOSE of $29.99.

19.1% at $27.37.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:31:22 AM

Tricky bugger at the bid .... we're onto you.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:30:49 AM

UNH ... Level II has CBOE $26.41 and $30.40

Keene Little : 1/30/2009 11:30:46 AM

Gold update: the updated daily chart of gold that was used in last night's market wrap shows my expectation that gold will make it up to the Fib projection at 943.90 by next Tuesday (where the projection crosses the top of its parallel up-channel for price action since its October low): Link

It continues to struggle a bit with the trend line across the December highs and may pull back before proceeding higher (hopefully higher). A break below 875 would say the decline has begun. Playing with some Fibs and the wave count for the move up from the January 15th low, it would look best if gold pulls back to about 900 and then shoots higher to ring the bell near 944. GC 240-min chart (all-hours): Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:29:43 AM

UNH $27.84 -2.96% ... UNH-NT $1.30 x $1.45

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:29:09 AM

dj- Procter & Gamble (PG) ... Cuts sales view amid weak consumer spending.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:28:05 AM

Analysis: This further drop likely comes from thought of "more government trying to influence and shape society" ... (see some of yesterday's WEF thoughts)

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:26:54 AM

dj- Obama: Labor movement part of the solution, not the problem

To sign 3 orders to boost labor provisions of Fed. govt

To create middle-class working families task force

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:24:09 AM

RKH 1/4 position shorts .... might be open to SELLING PARTIAL NAKED an OUT-THE-MONEY put on the RKH.

Yesterday I noted "pricey" puts. Get the spike to a LEVEL in the VIX.X and may want to rake in a premium. BEST if profitable in a PARTIAL short position to then SELL premiums. But need to know your position size, and AMOUNT OF PROFITABILITY in the short, should the security your SELLING PREMIUMS on actually trade that strike.

For example, on 1/4 short in RKH, what would ACCOUNT POSITION be if RKH traded $40?

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:19:21 AM

Watch ... UNH will be $27.90 and you'll see and offer of $1.40

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:18:38 AM

UNH $27.96 -2.53% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:18:07 AM

UNH-NT got some action at $1.25 offer (63). Now $1.20 x $1.35.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:17:15 AM

Ugh! ... Be careful with a YM long

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:16:58 AM

For YM/INDU/DIA ... I've also suggested having your components up on your screen, or available for view. IBM -0.27%, XOM +1.06%, CVX +1.13%, MCD -0.8%, JNJ -1.54%, PG -4.00, MMM -3.05%

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:14:31 AM

Too many times I've seen "good long" or "good short" mentioned, without the specifics. Intra-day sector action can be VERY important as to "which" should be the trade.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:13:12 AM

Correction to 11:06:54 ... I should have specified EXACTLY what index. With BIX.X at least firm, ES probably better. YM and MR.

NQ ... "not a bank in the bunch" so that would depend on levels (regular session derived).

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:11:03 AM

NYSE 5-day NH/NL ratio was -0.3% at 10:00 bench.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:10:20 AM

Ds1/WPiv you zone.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:10:01 AM

INDU would need to get above WKLY Pivot pretty quick though.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:09:11 AM

XLF -0.10% ..

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:08:55 AM

BIX.X +0.95% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:08:15 AM

Can't Profile a live one for you.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:07:51 AM

I'm over on QC6.0.2 and YM not live.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:07:14 AM

INDU 8,078

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:06:54 AM

Good place to be looking index futures long with tight stops.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:03:26 AM

A little tougher trade from earlier this morning than sometimes we "hear" isn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:02:13 AM

SPX 835.02 -1.19% ... off 10 now.

BIX.X +0.32% ... holding tough.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 11:02:12 AM

SPX 835.02 -1.19% ... off 10 now.

BIX.X +0.32% ... holding tough.

Keene Little : 1/30/2009 11:01:45 AM

ES at 828.50 just bounced off the 61.8% retracement from the low on Jan. 24 to yesterday's high. Now to see if that holds. The Slow Stochastics and MACD seem to be saying NO.

Thanks for update Ken. Let's see if Mr. Fibonacci works here.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 11:01:40 AM

On Wednesday I suspected the markets would see selling for the rest of the week so now, with that said, I don't expect to see much buying today. I am also looking to see where this selling ends. If it makes a higher low and then takes out the swing high made on Wednesday that is bullish however, if it closes below the swing low from 804 (consider this 800) that would be bearish. I like it when the charts are this clear. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:59:49 AM

UNH's Feb "Max Pain" at $26.00. ($1 increments)

Here at $28 C=$2.4M and P=$229K

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:58:08 AM

UNH $28.06 -2.19% ... UNH-NT $1.20 x $1.30

VIX.X 44.29 +3.84%

Keene Little : 1/30/2009 10:56:57 AM

Adding to Jane's comment on gold--"ugly" means corrective in EW terminology. It's why I believe the bounce off the October low will be fully retraced and why I'm watching for a short entry (hoping now to see it get up to the Fib projection just shy of 944).

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:56:47 AM

$50 is all put at $15.48 million. $55 is Put=$13.04M and Call= $1.32M

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:55:13 AM

RKH's Feb "Max Pain" at last night's close was $70 ($5 increments).

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:53:35 AM

No test of QUARTERLY 19.1% (RSD) at this point. Low as been 87.90

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 10:53:04 AM

I just read an article that Gold jumped $20 but upon checking the charts I see it only up $5.40. This is about the ugliest chart I have ever seen. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:52:31 AM

BIX.X 88.93 +0.34% ... after brief undercut of yesterday's low.

Keene Little : 1/30/2009 10:47:47 AM

I meant to show GOOG's updated daily chart yesterday to point out where it failed on Wednesday. Wednesday morning I posted the chart ( Link ) to show that resistance would likely be found between 353 and 355 where the apex of the previous 4th wave triangle was located and then the top of its parallel up-channel for price action since November's low. Like a thing of beauty (to a technician), GOOG failed right at that apex line (well, it failed 67 cents shy of it): Link

But so far GOOG is holding at its uptrend line from its January 20th low (wave b on the daily chart), which has been tested at this morning's low. Any lower for GOOG would confirm we've probably seen the high and the next leg down into March would likely be in progress. Conversely, a move back above 353 would have the Fib projection near 365 as the next likely upside target.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:47:14 AM

$x.40 and $x.90 tend to be option levels.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:46:29 AM

$1.40 usually a put price to wait for though.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:45:54 AM

If multiple put, could leg out of partial, capture profit.

UNH-NT $1.15 x $1.25.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:44:23 AM

KEY intra-day level here for HMO.X as a group isn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:43:40 AM

DS2 (RSD) also here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:43:11 AM

HMO.X's WKLY R1 (RSD) at 1,001.42

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:42:34 AM

HMO 1,002.45 -2.82% ... nearing "psycho" 1,000

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:42:01 AM

UNH's Red #6 would be correlative with WKLY Pivot (RSD) at $26.81. Not sure that would get hit today.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:38:50 AM

UNH $28.21 -1.67% ... probes DAILY S1 (RSD)

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 10:36:34 AM

Here is the VIX and S&P futures and as you can see they are in sync this morning. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:35:43 AM

RKH tests Red #3 Link ... QCharts' WKLY and Daily pivot levels turned on. UPPER and LOWER 5-mrt.

Keene Little : 1/30/2009 10:35:37 AM

SPX 830 here we come. But will it hold? It's certainly more bearish this morning than I expected to see. Where's the beef (bounce)?

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 10:35:31 AM

All markets are below their respective overnight lows, (I suspect TF is as well but its 20 minute delay is giving us an incorrect chart). Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:30:46 AM

RKH's DAILY S1 and Red#5 overlap and just more than 1/2 backfill of Wednesday's gap higher.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:29:42 AM

RKY $52.51 -0.24% ... correction to 10:22:43 ... RKH slipped back below WKLY R1 (52.86).

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:22:43 AM

RKH $52.42 -0.45% ... inches red. Slips back below WKLY R2 (regular session derived RSD)

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:20:56 AM

SPX 838.20 -0.82% ...

Keene Little : 1/30/2009 10:19:34 AM

If it doesn't hold here the next downside target is near SPX 830.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:18:54 AM

May take a trade at $27.50-ish in UNH to achieve UNH-NT target.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:18:13 AM

VIX.X 43.52 +2.08% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:17:59 AM

United Health (UNH) 28.37 -1.13% ... UNH-NT $1.05 x $1.15

Keene Little : 1/30/2009 10:17:18 AM

ES is now close to testing its pre-market low.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:16:12 AM

RUT.X 452.66 -0.12% ... slips red. All majors now in red.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:14:33 AM

dj- EIA: US Revised Nov. Gasoline -4.2% on Yr at 8.845M B/D

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 10:13:47 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Consumer sentiment rose in January to a final reading of 61.2 from 60.1 in late December, according to a media report of a survey released Friday by the University of Michigan and Reuters. Analysts polled by MarketWatch were looking for a January result of 61.5. While sentiment remains at relatively low levels, lower prices have provided some relief, even as worry persists over income and ongoing job losses.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:13:22 AM

OIX.X 575.72 +0.40% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:12:49 AM

PBR $26.60 +1.41% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:12:33 AM

USO $29.51 +0.99% ....

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:12:18 AM

dj- EIA: US Revised Nov. Oil Demand -1.6% Vs. Earlier Estimate

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 10:07:21 AM

Bears have taken hold and have control of the market now. Link

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 10:05:52 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The economy in the Chicago region continued to worsen in January, with more businesses reporting worsening conditions than at any time in the past 26 years, according to the purchasing managers index released Friday by the NAPM-Chicago. The Chicago PMI fell to 33.3% in January from 35.1% in December. Readings under 50% indicate more firms are seeing worsening conditions compared with the previous month.

Keene Little : 1/30/2009 10:04:00 AM

SPX 839-840 should be support. If not then we could see an extension of the 5th wave lower.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:02:48 AM

SPX 842.28 -0.33% ...

VIX.X 52.65 +0.04%

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:00:12 AM

SPX 847.44 +0.27% ... DAILY Pivot 852.70

Keene Little : 1/30/2009 9:57:39 AM

If we get a new low this morning I don't think you want to chase it lower. We should be very close to starting the bigger bounce. If anything, a day-trade long should be setting up.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 9:39:21 AM

Well so far this morning the AD line has climbed to over +1000 and the VIX is falling.

Keene Little : 1/30/2009 9:36:10 AM

A rally above yesterday afternoon's bounce high (SPX 853.45) would say the bottom is in for the leg down from Wednesday's high and the bigger bounce is underway.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 9:34:01 AM

AD line opens neutral at +470.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 9:33:00 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Honda Motor Co. (HMC) said Friday its fiscal third-quarter profit totaled 20.2 billion yen ($222 million), or 11 yen a share, from 200 billion yen, or 110 yen a share, in the same quarter a year before. Like many of its peers with strong export business, the No. 2 Japanese automaker was hit by a strengthening yen and reduced demand due to the global economic slump. Revenue for the quarter was 2.53 trillion yen compared to 3.04 trillion yen in the year-ago period. Honda also said it had reduced its profit outlook for the full fiscal year ending March 31 to 80 billion yen, which would mark an 87% drop from the previous year's results.

Keene Little : 1/30/2009 9:26:49 AM

Equity futures dropped hard into a low just before 8:00 AM but then spiked back up in the next 30 minutes. A retest of the low (ES 833) could give us the one more new low I had mentioned last night before starting the bigger bounce.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 9:26:04 AM

We still have the Chicago PMI out at 9:45 and the Consumer Confidence out at 9:55.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 9:23:52 AM

DOW futures are down -9, S&P down -1.5, NDX up 1.25 and Russell 2000 up 1.10.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 9:23:03 AM

Yesterday I put a Fibonacci retracement on the weekly Crude chart and have decided to leave it there for the daily charts. This will give you an idea where you can take profits when/if this market gives us any kind of hint the buyers have returned. We know this market will rally at some point but figuring out that point has been a challenge lately. Link

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 9:18:52 AM

Overnight session started out bearish with all markets breaching their previous day lows but once we had the GDP news out of the way the bulls returned and markets are now marching right back to test ON highs. Link

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 9:12:31 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) : on Friday said fourth-quarter net income fell 33% to $7.82 billion, or $1.55 a share from $11.66 billion, or $2.13 a share in the year-ago period. Analysts surveyed by FactSet Research forecast earnings of $1.52 a share. The world's largest corporation and component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average said lower oil prices impacted its profit by about $3.2 billion. Capital and exploration spending rose 11% to $6.8 billion. Oil equivalent production fell 3%. Excluding the impacts of lower entitlement volumes, OPEC quota effects and divestments, production fell 1%.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 9:10:38 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. employment costs rose at the slowest pace in at least 26 years in 2008, the Labor Department reported Friday, a sign that rising unemployment was keeping a lid on wages and benefits.

Employment costs increased 0.5% in the final three months of the year, down from 0.7% in the third quarter. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting costs to rise 0.7% in the fourth quarter

Jane Fox : 1/30/2009 9:06:36 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy contracted at a 3.8% annualized rate in the fourth quarter but the decline would have been worse except that the government counts an unwanted buildup of goods on store shelves as growth.

A clearer picture of the scope of the weakness in the fourth quarter, which excludes the inventory buildup, contracted at a 5.1% pace, the weakest in 28 years.

Even with inventories, the growth rate is the worst since 1982.

Today's report also confirms that the economy has entered new territory with a stunning record drop in headline inflation. The drop in growth in the fourth quarter was above economists expectations that growth would shrink at a 5.5% annual rate.

But the data cast a negative hue over the current quarter since output is likely to be cut aggressively.

As a result, it will be a bearish report for Wall Street,

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:32:45 AM

06:30 PM ... Japan Unemployment Rate 4.4%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:02:28 AM

If there were to be a Jeff Bailey Economic Forum, there would be a realization in the opening address that nowhere will there always be a winner. A winner can only come from another party losing.

However, in this forum, this is the reality of free market capitalism.

There is no one entity that will pick the winners by government intervention. The key is to make AVAILABLE an environmnet for win some, lose some, but allow all, regardless of race, or gender the opportunity to win more than they shall lose.

Free market funamentalism is not a mistake. However, to not enforce the rules, or laws, is a mistake.

History has shown, even recently in China when placing ceilings on fuel prices, consumption escalates and brings great imbalance between supply and demand of crude oil itself. Lifting, if not removing the ceilings allows free market fundamentals to bring supply and demand back into balance. Price floors do not work as complacency and the development of newer and more efficient technologies will never be found.

To not plan for up and down cycles, whether it be a bumper crop of corn, or drought, is to not understand cycles and the benefit they bring. At times there are winning sectors of an economy, and there must be losers. New cycles have past losers becoming winners, and those that were winning, will eventually lose.

One cannot propose to keep the best and the brightest, then also propose the need, perhaps mandate, what that group should be comprised of, or look like.

Allow the best and the brightest to come forward and demonstrate their ability to earn the reward.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 2:08:00 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Escalating talk from the new administration of what to do about the banking system and economy here at home continues to roil the markets and keeps traders active.

As noted in late 2007, this year's election was going to be one of the biggest in our lifetimes and bring great uncertainty to these markets, and those around the world.

For those following some of the comments out of this year's World Economic Forum, the taste of socialism and calls for the end of capitalism come to fruition and builds anxiety. Today's plan may look like that of November, but the uncertainty of what will ever happen creats the swings.

But that is what we're left with and have to navigate around.

Refined crude products had a bullish day and I was stopped out of the 1/2 short position in the UGA at $23.05. It would by my analysis that refiners are taking the capitalistic approach, without government intervention, to limit supply in order bring into equilibrium current demand. I say good for them, good for capitalism, and move to the sidelines on bearishness for unleaded.

Jack be nimble and Jack be quick. I'm short 1/4 position in the RKH at $52.68. Stop and target may be adjusted on a moments notice.

In this market environment, stops and targets are for RISK/REWARD assessment to try and give some room for expected volatility.

WEF Quotes: "We have to face the fact that our economic approach benefits a few, but doesn't bring any benefits for the masses."- Philip J. Jennings, General Secretary, UNI Global Union, Switzerland

"Free market fundamentalism was a mistake. To go to the other extreme would also be a mistake." - Ken Rosen, Chairman, Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics and Professor Emeritus, University of California, Berkeley, USA

"We are not happy with $40 a barrel or even $50. This is not enough to permit our member countries to invest and if they don't invest now, there will not be enough capacity to meet the increased demand when the economy recovers."- Abdalla Salem El Badri, Secretary-General, OPEC, Vienna

"It is easy to point fingers at the United States, but we've all enjoyed the benefits of globalization. Let us stop blaming people. What is important is collective action. Ferit F. Sahenk, Chairman, Dogus Group, Turkey; Young Global Leader

In a deflationary environment, the weight of accumulating debt can sink the banking system and push the economy into depression. That is what needs to be prevented at all costs.

George Soros, Chairman, Soros Fund Management LLC, USA

In today's economic crisis, business can help mitigate their risk by ensuring they attract and keep the best and brightest. The talent pool must include women and barriers to their success removed. As the World Economic Forum has consistently shown, competitiveness demands this. Davos Annual Meeting continues to be one of the key opportunities to engage world leaders in ensuring this insight moves to action.

-Laura Liswood, Secretary-General, Council of Women World Leaders; Advisory Board, World Economic Forum Women Leaders and Gender Parity Programme

Keene Little : 1/30/2009 12:15:14 AM

Friday's pivot table: Link

Whether we get a small bounce and minor new low first thing Friday morning or instead just start a bigger bounce right away the 5-wave decline from Wednesday's high to Thursday's low is setting up a bigger bounce correction. The 5-wave impulsive move down tells us the trend has changed to the downside and that's why I'm only looking for a bounce. We'll let price lead the way on Friday.
SPX 10-min chart: Link
SPX 60-min chart: Link

OI Technical Staff : 1/29/2009 9:59:59 PM

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